Biden Is Doing Foreign Policy Now

This is foreign policy week for Joe Biden. Usually foreign policy doesn't play a big role in elections—unless Americans are getting killed in a war somewhere—but it comes with the job of being president, so Joe Biden is doing what he needs to do. There are four things he has done recently on that front.

First, he has approved the transfer of cluster munitions to Ukraine. These are weapons that are packed in artillery shells and fired at an enemy target. When they hit, they scatter small bomblets over a wide area. They can be used against tanks but also against troops. Since the Russians are dug in deeply in the areas of Ukraine they occupy, these weapons could wreak havoc among the Russian soldiers. The downside is that a few percent of them are duds and don't explode when they land. Years later, when a child finds one and out of curiosity picks it up, it could explode and kill the child. For this reason, over 100 countries have banned their use, but the U.S. never signed the treaty banning them. Neither has Russia. Many U.S. allies have signed it and are unhappy with Biden's decision to supply them. But he has said that Ukraine is running low on ammunition and besides, Russia is using them, so the ground is already full of their duds. Some Democrats disagree with Biden's decision. Other Democrats supported his decision. But their approval or disapproval is just an interesting sidebar, as the buck doesn't stop on Capitol Hill.

Second, on Friday Biden announced that the U.S. has destroyed the last of its stockpile of chemical weapons. In 1997, the Senate ratified a treaty stating that all signatories had to destroy their stockpiles before Sept. 30, 2023. Now the U.S. is in compliance. While the U.S. doesn't sign all weapons treaties (see above), it does honor the ones it signed. Chemical weapons, especially poison gas, were widely used during World War I with devastating effects. At least 100,000 people were killed by them, and some multiple of that were permanently injured. Another million were injured by them since WWI.

Third, Ukraine wants to join NATO. Biden said the time is not ripe for that, certainly not in the middle of a war. Furthermore, Ukraine doesn't meet all the qualifications for membership. Biden clearly understands that if Ukraine were to join NATO now, all the other NATO countries would be drawn into the war with Russia and it could easily lead to World War III. Starting WW III would make it hard for the Republicans to say Biden is "weak on Russia," but he is not going to accept the consequences of having Ukraine join NATO now just to forestall GOP talking points. NATO membership for Ukraine is not going to happen until the war is over and maybe not even then.

Fourth, Biden left on a European trip yesterday. It is all about NATO and the war in Ukraine. He will first meet with U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak at 10 Downing St. They have met before. In fact, they have met five times before. Although Sunak opposes the use of cluster munitions, the meeting is likely to be cordial. Biden knows that dealing with Sunak is a lot easier than dealing with the mercurial Boris Johnson. After meeting Sunak, Biden will travel to Windsor Castle to meet King Charles III. Biden will certainly talk about all his efforts to deal with climate change, a topic Charles is passionately interested in. This will be the first time Biden has met Charles since he became king. Next, Biden will go on to Vilnius, Lithuania, to meet with NATO leaders and discuss the war. There are many unsettled issues and some divisions in the alliance. Countries that border Russia want to take a much stronger approach to curtailing Russian aggression than countries far from the fighting. One issue that won't come up is who will replace NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, whose term is up. Since the members can't agree on his replacement, they have asked Stoltenberg to stay on for a bit and he has agreed. After Vilinus, Biden will take a victory lap and visit Helsinki, capital of the newest NATO member.

All in all, it does show that Biden has a quiet toughness and can take on Russia. Foreign policy probably won't be a major issue in 2024, but to the extent that it is, Biden has it well covered. (V)

New Hampshire Is Not Iowa

Going to New Hampshire and praising corn-based ethanol doesn't get you a lot of votes. And the two earliest states are very different in many other ways as well. Republican candidates trying to figure out where to campaign need to grasp this.

For one thing, winning Iowa doesn't actually mean much. Since 1980, the winner of the Iowa Republican caucuses when there was no Republican incumbent president has lost the nomination all but twice. In 1996, Bob Dole won Iowa, and in 2000, George W. Bush won Iowa, but both were frontrunners well before the caucuses. In all other competitive years, the winner in Iowa lost the nomination. The message here to candidates is roughly: "Don't put much effort into Iowa."

It is not just dumb luck that it has worked out like this. First, Iowa Republicans are very conservative and very religious. Candidates who appeal to these voters rarely appeal to the crusty Yankees in northern New Hampshire or the suburban Bostonians in southern New Hampshire. Since New Hampshire is a much better microcosm of the country than Iowa, winning New Hampshire is a much better indicator of how popular a candidate is than winning Iowa.

Second, Iowa is very agricultural with corn and pigs playing a huge role in the state's economy. It is the #1 pork-producing state in the country by a country mile. The next four are Minnesota, North Carolina, Illinois and Indiana, but in none of these does it dominate the economy there. Thus a piggish campaign doesn't travel well. New Hampshire is #45 in pork production, beating out only Nevada, Alaska, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and New Mexico. Pigs don't do well in Alaska.

A third big difference between the two earliest states is income. New Hampshire is #8 in the country in median household income and Iowa is #30. Things that appeal to Iowans don't necessarily appeal to New Hampshirites. One has to address the economy differently in the two states. As an aside, the 10 richest states in the country are all blue and nine of the 10 poorest are red (New Mexico is the tenth).

Fourth, in terms of percentage of adults with at least a bachelor's degree, the difference between New Hampshire and Iowa is also stark. New Hampshire is #9 and Iowa is #39. This also requires a different kind of campaign in each one. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is running a policy-driven campaign and he is likely to have more success in New Hampshire than in Iowa with that. As an aside here again, the top 10 most college-educated states are all blue and nine of the bottom ten are red (Nevada is the tenth).

In short, these two states are very different and require different campaigns. In view of the fact that Iowa has a terrible track record, spending a lot of time in Iowa, winning, and then flaming out elsewhere does not appear to be a good strategy. Most of the Republican candidates do not seem to have absorbed this message and are in Iowa most of the time. Only Chris Christie, who probably can't tell a hog from a Harley, is completely focused on New Hampshire. (V)

South Carolina Could Be the Key Primary State for the Republicans in 2024

While Iowa and New Hampshire are important, they are not the only players. The Republican primary calendar hasn't been fully set yet, but it looks like Iowa will hold its Republican caucuses on Jan. 15, 2024. Then comes the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 23 (probably). After that—crickets. For a whole month. South Carolina is set to vote on Feb. 24. That's a very long stretch with no elections, unless Nevada sneaks in there.

As we note above, Iowa has a terrible record for picking the Republican nominee. New Hampshire and South Carolina are better. Here are recent winners for years with a competitive Republican race:

state	2016	2012	2008	2000
Iowa	Ted Cruz	Rick Santorum	Mike Huckabee	George Bush
New Hampshire	Donald Trump	Mitt Romney	John McCain	John McCain
South Carolina	Donald Trump	Newt Gingrich	John McCain	George Bush
Nevada	Donald Trump	Mitt Romney	Mitt Romney

If Donald Trump wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, the only way he could be stopped is a big loss in South Carolina. As it turns out, there are two candidates from that state in the race now, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) and Nikki Haley. Whether both will survive until South Carolina is far from clear, though. If either one of them (or someone else) wins South Carolina, that could at least stop Trump's momentum. If both Scott and Haley are in the race then, they will probably split the vote, though. However, terrible results in Iowa and New Hampshire might force one or both of them out. The anti-Trump forces would be strongest if the only viable candidates left by the time South Carolina votes are Ron DeSantis and one of the South Carolinians and Chris Christie. Then it is possible Trump might come in second or third.

In any event, the unusually long gap between New Hampshire and South Carolina will be a critical period in the campaign. (V)

Haley and Ramaswamy Have Met the Donor Threshold for the Debate

One of the requirements for getting on the stage for the first Republican debate, on Aug. 23 in Milwaukee, is getting 40,000 donors. RNC insiders report that a requirement for the second debate, in September in California, will be 50,000 donors. For the third debate, in Alabama in October, it will be 60,000 donors.

Axios is now reporting that both Indian-American candidates, Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy, have passed the 60,000-donor mark and thus won't be disqualified on that score up through the third debate. They will also have to meet the polling requirements, but the poll window just opened so we don't have the results on that yet.

Other candidates who have a good shot of making at least the first debate are Tim Scott and Chris Christie. Ron DeSantis is sure to make it, as is Donald Trump, but Trump hasn't said if he will be showing up. He has a history of skipping debates.

On the other hand, Asa Hutchinson said that he has 25,000 donors so far, so he is barely halfway there. He could be in big trouble. The same could be true of all the others except Mike Pence, who is likely to meet all the criteria with backing from evangelicals.

A debate with DeSantis, Haley, Ramaswamy, Scott, Pence, and Christie could actually be interesting. Each one would get roughly 10 minutes of time per hour of debate, enough to actually make an impression. If the number of people on stage makes it to 10 or 12, it just becomes a pointless mess. (V)

DeSantis Solves His Problem with Retail Campaigning: Send His Wife

Ron DeSantis is a terrible retail campaigner. When he is at a state fair and a voter offers to buy him a funnel cake, he is likely to decline and tell the voter why he hates the Woke Disney Corporation so much. Not since Al Gore has there been a major presidential candidate who was that bad at retail campaigning.

But DeSantis may have found a work-around: He is sending his wife, (Jill) Casey DeSantis, to meet the voters and do retail campaigning. On Friday she made her solo debut out on the trail. Up until now, she has appeared with him at every campaign event, but now she is going it alone.

A former television anchor, she is far better than her husband at meeting people, answering questions, and working crowds. She is also hugely determined to see him become president. She recently said: "As long as I have breath in my body, I will go out and I will fight for Ron DeSantis. Not because he's my husband. That is a part of it, but it's because I believe in him in every ounce of my being." OK, she's ambitious. But she has to be careful. She is already being compared to Lady Macbeth, and not in a good way.

As a breast cancer survivor and mother of three young children, she is expected to try to get suburban women to support DeSantis. One area where she will push hard is education, an area where her husband has been deeply involved—banning books and limiting what teachers can say in the classroom. The right-wing Moms for Liberty group has chapters in 44 states and we can certainly imagine Casey visiting many of them, asking for votes and donations. In fact, she even started her own group, Mamas for DeSantis. Its goal is to protect the innocence of children and the rights of parents. You want to see what this actually means? Take a look:

Maybe Casey is more poised and user-friendly than her hubby, but Lady Macbeth was a cuddly sweetie compared to Casey. Donald Trump is probably thinking: "I wish I had a wife like that. Maybe I should find one like that for #4." (V)

Crystal Ball: Only Four Toss-up States in 2024

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball has made its first electoral college map for 2024. Here is the map:

As you can see, there are four toss-up states, marked in yellow. They are Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia. There is one leans-red state (North Carolina) and three leans-blue states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire). The rest are nailed down. The NE-02 district is predicted to buck the rest of Nebraska and go blue and the ME-02 district is predicted to buck the rest of Maine and go red, so they cancel out.

In this configuration, the Democrat, whom the Ball is expecting to be Joe Biden, has 260 electoral votes and the Republican, whom the Ball expects to be Donald Trump, has 235 electoral votes. While neither of these is 270, Biden is in better shape. He needs 10 more electoral votes. That means he has to win only one of Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia. Trump must win all three. That gets him to 272. Even if he loses ME-02, he still would have 271. Note that Trump really only needs 269 because in the event of a tie, the House would pick the president, with each state getting one vote. The Republicans will almost certainly control 26 state delegations, so the magic number for them is 269 whereas it is 270 for the Democrats.

The map is pretty much independent of who the nominees are and is certainly independent of national polling. If Trump's legal problems lead to Ron DeSantis getting the GOP nomination and Biden dies and the Democrats nominate Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), nothing changes. The Crystal Ball hasn't taken third parties like No Labels, the Green Party, and the Libertarian Party into account, but even that doesn't change the map, per se, although it could affect who wins the swing states.

The Crystal Ball team argued internally about one state: Pennsylvania. Some members argued for making it a toss-up. But in the end, they gave the Democrats the edge because the governor, lieutentant governor, and attorney general are all Democrats, as are both senators.

What about the four swing states? Here are the presidential winners back to 2000.

State	2020	2016	2012	2008	2004	2000
Arizona	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Mitt Romney	John McCain	George Bush	George Bush
Georgia	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Mitt Romney	John McCain	George Bush	George Bush
Nevada	Joe Biden	Hillary Clinton	Barack Obama	Barack Obama	John Kerry	Al Gore
Wisconsin	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Barack Obama	Barack Obama	George Bush	George Bush

From the table, Arizona and Georgia have only recently started to swing. They used to be pretty red. Arizona is swingier than Georgia, though, as the governor, attorney general, and secretary of state are all Democrats and both senators were elected as Democrats. In Georgia, the only statewide elected Democrats are the two senators, and they benefited from Trump's mucking around in their races. Nevada is a light blue state, but although the Democrat has won four times in a row, the margin keeps getting smaller. Also, the state elected a Republican governor in 2022.

We mostly agree with the Ball. Our only quibble is that we would put Nevada and North Carolina in the same bag. Either they are both true toss-ups or they are each slightly partisan, albeit in different directions. We think the Democrats' chance of winning North Carolina is about as big as the Republicans' chance of winning Nevada. (V)

Clarence Thomas Has Received Far More Gifts Than Previously Reported

The free vacations Justice Clarence Thomas got from billionaire Republican donor Harlan Crow are only the tip of the iceberg. According to an article published in yesterday's New York Times, Thomas has received many more valuable gifts from many more people than previously known. He didn't list any of these on his disclosure forms.

Shortly after being confirmed to the Supreme Court on Oct. 15, 1991, Thomas joined the Horatio Alger Association, a club for extraordinarily wealthy white conservatives who were happy to have a powerful Black person as a member. The people he met there welcomed him and his wife at their exclusive vacation retreats, got him VIP access to top sports events, and invited him to lavish parties. For example, for years he made annual visits to South Florida to pal around with the late Wayne Huizenga, founder of Blockbuster Video and then-owner of the Miami Dolphins. Thomas is also good friends with multimillionaire David Sokol, who was at one time seen as the successor to Warren Buffett at the Berkshire Hathaway company, but left in disgrace in 2011. Many of these people have keen interest in how the Supreme Court rules on many cases, even if they are not a direct party in the cases.

Thomas has helped out the Association in ways that are not illegal, but are still sleazy. He has allowed the annual induction ceremony of new Association members to be held in the hallowed Supreme Court chambers. During the ceremony, he presents each one with a Horatio Alger Association medallion. It's the closest thing to being knighted in the U.S. The incredibly rich members seem to appreciate that Thomas could give them something no one else can. In return, in addition to vacations and gifts, the Association made him an honorary board member and created prep-school scholarships named for his son. They are for students at prep schools Thomas' relatives were attending.

The news of all the other gifts Thomas has received broke on a Sunday. Expect some comments from members of Congress today. (V)

Jamie Raskin Will Stay in the House

It is rare when the assumed frontrunner in a race passes on the race, but that is what Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) just did. With Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD) hanging up his hat, Raskin would have been the clear favorite to win the seat if he ran. But he is not running. He was the lead prosecutor at Donald Trump's second impeachment, has a national profile, and could raise money from all over the country.

It's hard to figure out why he didn't go for it. He's 60, but he could probably serve four terms. One possible reason is that if he ran and won, he would be the most junior senator in a body that takes seniority very seriously. If he stays in the House, which he can do until he dies in his D+29 district (MD-08), he will have a lot of power if the Democrats retake the House. Then he will be chairman of the House Oversight Committee, which has the authority to investigate anyone and anything. In the House, he can also mentor younger members, which as a former professor of constitutional law he likes to do. He has picked Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) as his right-hand woman on the Oversight Committee. This will give her a very high profile if he becomes chairman and the Committee starts all manner of investigations in 2025.

Another reason Raskin might have declined a run is his health. He has a form of lymphoma that is currently in remission. Running for the Senate would be hard work and he might not feel up to it. Running for reelection to the House would merely require filing some paperwork with the Maryland secretary of state. He wouldn't even have to bother campaigning.

Raskin said that he has friends who said giving up all his power in the House to become a junior senator would be crazy. However, he also said he has friends who said that missing a once-in-a-generation shot at an empty Senate seat would be crazy.

With Raskin in the Senate race, the Democrats would be sure to hold the seat. However, without Raskin in the race, they are still sure to hold the seat. There will be a wild primary, with Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks and Rep. David Trone (D-MD) already in and at least half a dozen other Democrats on the sidelines who were waiting for Raskin to make a decision. Now that he is out, state AG (and former Rep.) Anthony Brown (D-MD) and Rep. John Sarbanes (D-MD) might jump in along with a bunch of others. But Maryland is so blue, and with a nearly empty GOP bench given that former governor Larry Hogan (R) isn't interested, it doesn't matter who wins the primary in terms of control of the Senate. It will be a Democrat no matter what. (V)

D.C. Bar Association Committee Recommends that Giuliani Be Disbarred

Rudy Giuliani is under investigation by the D.C. Bar Association for making numerous unsubstantiated claims of election fraud after the 2020 election. For example, he claimed that 600,000 unlawful votes were cast in Pennsylvania—without providing even a shred of evidence. Lawyers aren't supposed to make wild, false claims.

The D.C. Bar Association began an investigation in 2022. The Disciplinary Committee has now issued its report. Here is its conclusion:

We have considered in mitigation Mr. Giuliani's conduct following the September 11 attacks as well as his prior service in the Justice Department and as Mayor of New York City. But all of that happened long ago. The misconduct here sadly transcends all his past accomplishments. It was unparalleled in its destructive purpose and effect. He sought to disrupt a presidential election and persists in his refusal to acknowledge the wrong he has done. For these reasons, we unanimously recommend that Mr. Giuliani be disbarred.

The recommendation will now move up a level within the Bar Association hierarchy, but it is very unlikely that such a strong recommendation after a thorough investigation would be ignored. At this point, the only way Giuliani can avoid being formally disbarred is by resigning from the Bar himself before the full Bar acts on the recommendation.

There is also a good chance that Fulton County DA Fani Willis is going to indict Giuliani for lying to the Georgia legislature under oath. At the trial, she could probably introduce this report as evidence that he has a pattern of lying. For someone who once flew so high that he thought of himself as presidential material, he has fallen pretty low. But he has no one but himself to blame.

Giuliani is not the only Trump lawyer who has problems. Trump lawyer and conspiracy theorist Lin Wood is facing disbarment in Georgia. Rather than having the process play out, with a likely disbarment as the result, Wood has asked the Georgia bar to retire his law license. If accepted, that would be permanent, with no possibility of ever getting it back.

In addition, John Eastman is on trial in California in a disbarment procedure. He faces 11 disciplinary charges. It's not looking good for him.

As the saying goes, "The mills of God grind slow, but they grind exceeding fine." (V)

Dutch Government Collapses over Immigration

We regularly get letters from people who hate the Democrats and also hate the Republicans. Folks like this are sometimes called "double haters." It is also known that about 35% or more of eligible voters don't vote and studies show that many of them don't vote because they don't like either party. Wouldn't it be heaven to have, say, 28 parties so you could fine tune your choice to a party that matched your wishes on practically everything? Be careful what you wish for.

The Dutch parliament has 150 members in the lower chamber, which has almost all the power. It is chosen by straight proportional representation. If a party gets 0.7% of the popular vote, it gets 1 seat in parliament. Currently there are 18 parties with members there. There are two more parties with at least one seat in the upper chamber (the Senate) but none in the lower chamber. And there are 24 more parties that didn't make it into either chamber last time. That's 44 parties, so lots of choice (although only 28 made it onto the most recent ballot).

The problem is putting together a coalition with ≥76 seats after an election. Last time it took 9 months to form a government with four parties (one conservative, one liberal, and two centrist Christian) with a total of 77 seats. Needless to say, in that circumstance, all it takes is two members to balk at something to cause the ship to sink. That happened on Friday over the question of immigration. No European government is jumping for joy about welcoming thousands of immigrants, especially not from Syria or Africa, but sometimes refugees manage to get to Greece or Italy by boat. Neither country can handle them all, so the European Union distributes them. Guess what, feller, you're going to Belgium, and you over there, you're going to Romania.

The Dutch government was (grudgingly) willing to take the migrants who made it and who were assigned to the Netherlands by the E.U. The battle was whether their families should be allowed in and when. Prime Minister Mark Rutte wants to create a two-tier system with temporary refugees (e.g., from war zones like Ukraine) and permanent refugees. He also doesn't want to allow refugees' families in, at least not for a few years. That split the coalition and the government collapsed on Friday. So he called King Willem-Alexander to offer his resignation, but the King was off in Greece on vacation. Kings get 6 weeks vacation, just like everyone else. The King is a traditionalist and doesn't do Zoom resignations, so he had to come back to accept it. The situation regarding immigration in many other European countries is similar. Rutte was merely leading the pack. Immigration politics is everywhere.

New elections will be called for in the fall. Rutte said that 13 years as prime minister are enough so he is leaving politics altogether. If the current coalition gets 75 or fewer seats, they will need to find a fifth party to get to 76—and they still will have to agree on the immigration question they can't agree on now. If that fails, some other combination can try, but there is no alternative bloc that is big enough. This means negotiating with tiny one-issue parties that really want whatever their issue is. The Animal Party wants rights for animals, for example. The anti-capitalist party (BIJ1) wants to rid the country of capitalism. There are a couple of quasi-Fascist parties nobody else will touch with a barge pole. Putting together a majority and then writing a formal program on what they want to accomplish in the next 4 years is a challenge. If the election is held in, say, November 2023, it could be November 2024 or later before there is a government. Putting the country in limbo for long periods of time is common in many countries with proportional representation. Israel, Belgium, and Italy come to mind here.

You know how hard it was for the House to elect a speaker this year with only two parties. Now imagine that the House was elected nationwide by proportional representation and Freedom Caucus was a separate party, the 18-Biden-district Republicans were a separate party, evangelical Republicans were a separate party, the Libertarians were represented by a real party, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) had her own party, and the remaining Republicans were the Reagan-Bush Party. Also imagine that the Democrats were split into at least six actual political parties—say, the Social Democrats, the Greens, the Progressives, the Black Caucus Party, the Moderate Democrats. and the Blue Dogs. And maybe a bipartisan AARP Party. We already have 13 potential parties here, without considering potential new and very narrow parties (the Tech Party, the Farmer Party, the Pro-Choice Party, etc.). After the election they would engage in horse trading to get to 218 to not only elect a speaker, but to pick committee chairs and assign spots on the committees and lay out what they planned to do. It could take a year. Or more. So be careful what you wish for. Every system has its pros and cons, and there is no panacea. (V)

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