State Averages for Senate

This page contains the current averages for each state for all the Senate races calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (RCP, 538, HP, TPM, etc.) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.

In the Senate polls below, an asterisk denotes an incumbent.

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Arizona Ruben Gallego 50% Kari Lake 48% +2% Nov 13
California Candidate unknown 54% Candidate unknown 46% +8% Nov 13
Connecticut Chris Murphy* 59% Candidate unknown 40% +19% Nov 13
Delaware Lisa Rochester 60% Candidate unknown 38% +22% Nov 13
Florida Candidate unknown 49% Rick Scott* 50% +1% Nov 13
Hawaii Mazie Hirono* 71% Candidate unknown 29% +42% Nov 13
Indiana Candidate unknown 44% Candidate unknown 52% +8% Nov 13
Maine Angus King* 55% Candidate unknown 35% +20% Nov 13
Maryland Candidate unknown 64% Candidate unknown 31% +33% Nov 13
Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren* 61% Candidate unknown 36% +25% Nov 13
Michigan Elissa Slotkin 52% Mike Rogers 46% +6% Nov 13
Minnesota Amy Klobuchar* 60% Candidate unknown 36% +24% Nov 13
Mississippi Candidate unknown 39% Roger Wicker* 59% +20% Nov 13
Missouri Candidate unknown 46% Josh Hawley* 52% +6% Nov 13
Montana Jon Tester* 49% Candidate unknown 48% +1% Nov 13
Nebraska Candidate unknown 38% Deb Fischer* 58% +20% Nov 13
Nebraska-special Candidate unknown 38% Pete Ricketts* 58% +20% Nov 13
Nevada Jacky Rosen* 50% Candidate unknown 45% +5% Nov 13
New Jersey Candidate unknown 53% Candidate unknown 44% +9% Nov 13
New Mexico Martin Heinrich* 54% Candidate unknown 31% +23% Nov 13
New York Kirsten Gillibrand* 67% Candidate unknown 33% +34% Nov 13
North Dakota Candidate unknown 45% Kevin Cramer* 55% +10% Nov 13
Ohio Sherrod Brown* 53% Candidate unknown 47% +6% Nov 13
Pennsylvania Bob Casey* 56% Candidate unknown 43% +13% Nov 13
Rhode Island Sheldon Whitehouse* 62% Candidate unknown 38% +24% Nov 13
Tennessee Candidate unknown 44% Marsha Blackburn* 55% +11% Nov 13
Texas Candidate unknown 48% Ted Cruz* 51% +3% Nov 13
Utah Candidate unknown 32% Candidate unknown 62% +30% Nov 13
Vermont Bernie Sanders* 67% Candidate unknown 27% +40% Nov 13
Virginia Tim Kaine* 57% Candidate unknown 41% +16% Nov 13
Washington Maria Cantwell* 59% Candidate unknown 41% +18% Nov 13
West Virginia Joe Manchin* 50% Candidate unknown 46% +4% Nov 13
Wisconsin Tammy Baldwin* 55% Candidate unknown 45% +10% Nov 13
Wyoming Candidate unknown 30% John Barrasso* 67% +37% Nov 13