Donald Trump Is Getting Desperate, Part I: Policy

Maybe there will be a blue wave/tsunami on November 3, and maybe not. You can't be sure, of course, until the ballots are counted. What you can be sure of, however, is that everyone thinks a blue wave/tsunami is coming. That includes the media, the pollsters, the psephologists (including us), the Democratic pooh-bahs and the Republican pooh-bahs. In the past 48 hours or so, Donald Trump has shown that he is absolutely scared witless. And part of the evidence is the two policy moves he's made, both reeking of desperation, in an effort to save the Republicans' bacon.

We'll start with the latest effort to buy the people's votes using the people's money. We doubt that very many people believe that they will be getting $5,000 checks from the government on some unspecified future date, no matter how well the Republicans do on Election Day. Certainly, after Trump made that promise at the Republican "convention," there was no bounce in the GOP's numbers—not even a dead cat bounce. In fact, since he issued forth with that promise, the Republicans' numbers have gotten almost uniformly worse.

This being the case, Trump and his people decided they needed to come up with some actual money, and to deliver it before people cast their midterm ballots. This is not such an easy problem to solve, since there aren't piles of money lying around to use for de facto bribes. Remember, once you start talking about sending a check to tens of millions of people, the price tag gets very big very fast. It's possible the Republican-controlled Congress might be persuaded to fund such a thing, but probably not and, in any case, neither chamber is in session until after the elections.

So, Trump's people (presumably Russell Vought) came up with this, which Trump announced on his boutique socialist media platform:

I am pleased to announce that my Administration will, immediately, begin sending "Checks" of nearly $100 to over 20 MILLION wonderful Seniors to help pay for their Medicare Part B premiums, which we have already reduced by significant amounts. This money will come from the Medicare Improvement Fund, a pointless "Slush Fund" that has only been used by Dumocrats in Congress to pay for the Waste, Fraud, and Abuse for their Special Interest friends, and drive up Healthcare costs. We are finally using this Fund, along with my Most Favored Nations Deals, to substantially LOWER costs for our Seniors. I pledged to protect and preserve Medicare and Social Security, which were on the verge of RUIN by Joe Biden, who foolishly and maliciously let tens of millions of Illegal Aliens into our Country, and we are doing just that for America's Seniors. This is separate from the equally substantial Refund "Checks" we are sending to One Million Americans who were overcharged for their Unaffordable Care Act plans by Joe Biden.

Because I delivered on this very important issue for the American People, they can also rest assured the highly popular $5,000 Trump Dividend will be distributed to every U.S. Citizen if, and when, the Republicans win the Midterm Elections! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

Trump's understanding of grammar is so strange. Why, for example, is 'checks' in quotes? Is that a warning that people aren't actually going to get checks, and instead will receive $90 in, say, Taco Bell vouchers? Ok, McDonald's vouchers.

Whatever is going on, let's talk about the problems we see with this idea. First, from a political perspective, we are skeptical that it will have much of an effect, even if the checks do reach people before they cast their ballots. Some sizable number of those seniors are already voting MAGA. Some additional number won't vote at all. A large chunk of the remainder are most certainly not going to sell their votes for money, particularly so paltry a sum as $90. How many people are left? That is to say, people who are going to vote, and weren't going to vote Republican, but will do so once they have four Jacksons and a Hamilton in their paws? We think that number is very, very small. And unless they are concentrated (say, in the Villages?), they're not going to swing any elections.

The second problem here is that the plan is illegal. The money is going to come from the $2.2 billion Medicare Improvement Fund, which is meant to be spent on improvements to hospitals and to insurance programs. It is not meant to be used on bribes (or, if you take the pro-Trump interpretation, it is not meant to be used on subsidies for Medicare subscribers). Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), who is very Trumpy, and who knows a thing or two about fraud related to government spending on healthcare, admitted to CNN's Jake Tapper yesterday that it's not legal. He also, without much conviction, expressed his hope that if the White House does break the law here, "Somebody will stop them." Gee, Senator, if only someone could figure out what part of the government has the power of the purse.

The third problem (though not everyone thinks this is a problem) is indicated by the snarky remark we made in the fourth paragraph of this item. It would be hard to find a clearer-cut example of socialism than taking government funds and redistributing them to poorer citizens in order to help them cover the costs of a social welfare program. We could have sworn we had heard the Republicans say socialism is bad. Like, hundreds of times. In the last week.

In any event, it certainly feels like a Hail Mary pass to us. And that brings us to the second desperation maneuver that Trump has unleashed in the last 48 hours. This one was rumored over the weekend, and finally came to pass yesterday: an executive order that, according to its own heading, is "President Donald J. Trump Promot[ing] Diesel Affordability."

The main (and really only) thing the new XO will do is make "red-dyed diesel" available for purchase to everyone. Under normal circumstances, red-dyed diesel (which really is dyed red, to make it easy for inspectors to identify abuse) is a form of farm subsidy; it's tax-free, but can only be used for vehicles (e.g., tractors, harvesters) not being used on roads. Any vehicle being used on roads has to use regular diesel, and therefore has to pay gas taxes.

Trump made a big point of signing the XO at a rally in Nebraska, with Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-NE) by his side. And really, the entire thing—not just the signing ceremony—is just political theater. The amount of diesel that will now be made available to regular drivers is a relative pittance as compared to the amount of diesel that is no longer being imported into the United States. Every analyst we read said this will have no noticeable impact on prices. It also occurs to us that if fuel that is supposed to be limited to farmers is suddenly available to everyone, farmers may not be able to get as much fuel as they need, at the prices they need. We're just guessing on that, but if it's true, well, many farmers are already hopping mad with the administration.

Trump has hemmed and hawed on this diesel issue, and has hinted at many and varied grandiose plans for addressing the problem, most obviously a temporary embargo on diesel exports from the U.S. If Trump actually did that, it would make Big Oil (which paid good money for him) very angry, would do long-term damage to U.S. trade relationships with other nations, and... probably wouldn't ease diesel prices in a meaningful way. We presume that the fact that Trump's "big reveal" was a limited and pretty useless maneuver is a tacit acknowledgment from him and his administration that the more aggressive approaches (like the embargo) just aren't workable. (Z)

Donald Trump Is Getting Desperate, Part II: Petulance

Besides issuing forth with hasty and half-baked policy ideas, another dead giveaway that Donald Trump is getting scared is that he begins lashing out in particularly unhinged ways. Yes, he often lashes out. And yes, he's often unhinged. But sometimes he's particularly crazypants, even by his standards. The last few days have been one of those times. Here's a rundown of some of the petulant things he's uncorked, in all kinds of directions:

Tom Cotton: We are not sure why Trump has become personally invested in permanent Daylight Savings Time. Maybe because he is now a Florida Man. Maybe because Marco Rubio got in his ear. Anyhow, the Congress is once again considering such legislation, and Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) has held it up, having heard from his constituents, in no uncertain terms, that they do not want their kids going to school in the dark. Trump responded with a long and angry rant on his social media platform, in which he urged MAGA to call Cotton and twist his arm. That would not be too far out of bounds except that, in order to facilitate those calls, Trump posted Cotton's personal cell phone number. What a jerk move.

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Thom Tillis: It would seem that being named "Thomas" puts you in Trump's dog house these days, whether or not you include an "h" in the diminutive form of your name. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), whose career will soon be over thanks to Trump, has been giving some frank interviews, and is about to publish a frank book in which he includes some text messages he exchanged with the President. One of them read: "I still want to help but I don't take this bullsh** from anyone, including you Mr. President." The White House is very angry with Tillis, and a spokesperson, commenting on behalf of Trump, said that saying such things electronically (as opposed to face-to-face) is a pu**y move. In view of the fact that Trump says those kinds of things electronically all the time (see above for one example, and below for others), we guess that's a tacit acknowledgement that the President is a pu**y.

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Transphobia: Let's be honest, it wouldn't be a Trump rage bender without at least a little anti-trans stuff thrown in. In (yet another) posting to his hate-filled social media platform, Trump slurred Annie Andrews, the Democrat who is running for the Senate in South Carolina, as "Annie Trannie," and declared "Trannie is not for South Carolina." Let us be clear, "trannie" (although it's usually spelled "tranny") is a slur and, on top of that, Andrews is not, in fact, trans.

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Ohio: At one of his rallies, held on Saturday in Ohio, Trump suggested that if Amy Acton (D) is elected governor, he will block all federal funding to the state. After all, what's a little blackmail between friends? Miles Taylor (a.k.a. "The Resistance"), a former Trump White House official who has become a NeverTrump blogger, opined that Trump has reached "total desperation stage" and that "This weekend, Donald Trump proved that he doesn't need an opponent. If left to his own corrupt devices, he will defeat himself, again and again."

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What First Amendment? (Part I): Speaking of the Ohio rally, it was held in a high school gym, specifically the Butler-Vandalia Student Activity Center at Vandalia-Butler High School, which seats 4,500 people. That gives you some indication of how these things are not exactly a hot ticket anymore, and how desperately Team Trump is trying to avoid the embarrassment of photos of empty seats. In its coverage of the event, The New York Times noted what the White House was trying to do, and said it still didn't work, as there were whole sections of empty seats on the second level by the end of the rally. Trump went absolutely ballistic in response:

The Ohio Arena was already full to the brim—And yet these people were still trying to get in. The New York Times said, "There were empty seats" when, in fact, there were none, and thousands of people had to be turned away. The New York Times, and many other Artificial Media Outlets, should be arrested for their dishonesty and disservice to our Country. When Bernie Sanders has 500 to 1,000 people, they make it sound like it's the biggest event that ever took place. When PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP has 50,000 people, they make it sound like nobody showed up! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Trump supported his position with pictures, though if you click through the link, it sure looks like there are empty seats higher up. Beyond that, these rallies go on forever, so it's entirely plausible that the arena could be full, and then could be... less than full. In any case, threatening to arrest reporters because their coverage gave you the sads is a little scary. Oh, and remember that the arena seats 4,500, not 45,000 (or 50,000).

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What First Amendment? (Part II): It would seem that the Times is not the only outlet that is on notice. The morning after the Ohio rally, Trump awakened and fired off a Truth blasting Fox for not giving his rallies enough coverage. He said this is unacceptable, because "These Rallies are the hottest things out there, tremendous love in those sold out arenas." And you can tell he's right, because again, they are now being held in high school gyms. By way of comparison, incidentally, the average game for the WNBA—a league Trump hates—drew 10,954 fans in 2025 (2026 figures aren't complete yet). It would seem that—as Jack Smith knows very well—the WNBA is roughly a 243% hotter ticket than a Trump rally.

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San Diego and Los Angeles: Yesterday, Trump put the cherry, as it were, on this sh** sundae of a weekend. During the same event in Nebraska where he signed the red-dye XO (see above), he also invited Iran to attack California. Specifically, Trump decreed: "They can take out a city. Let them take out Los Angeles. Let them take out San Diego." Those are, as you may have heard, American cities, and are home to over 10 million people whom Trump is supposed to represent (including ¾ of the people who produced today's blog posting). Over 500,000 of those people are part of the Iranian diaspora and their descendants, as Los Angeles is home to the largest concentration of people of Iranian descent outside of Iran, such that a portion of the city is known as Tehrangeles. And the President has just wished death upon those 10 million people (some of whom, it should be noted as well, are Trump voters).

Let us just review here: That's giving out a senator's private cell number, calling another senator a pu**y, using a trans slur, and using it against a non-trans person, trying to use federal funding to blackmail Ohio voters, threatening various journalists because he does not like their coverage, and inviting an enemy to bomb American citizens. And all of this in about 48 hours! There can be no conclusion here except that he's frightened, and is acting out on that fear. Well, that and that he's a giant a**hole. And forgive our somewhat less than neutral tone here, but he literally just encouraged a foreign adversary to kill us. If we don't return the favor, and wish that Iran would kill him, then we think we're actually being restrained. (Z & A)

SCOTUS Is Back at It

New Supreme Court terms begin in early October, and the latest term got going yesterday. The justices heard arguments in their first case of the season, and the case is a doozy. It is called Suncor Energy Inc. v. County Commissioners of Boulder County. Since the current federal administration has no interest in global warming or the planet burning up, the states are stepping up to fill the void. A number of them have sued the oil companies, claiming they have damaged the state's climates in various ways and (often illegally) hidden risks they knew about and should have disclosed.

That said, yesterday's arguments weren't about climate change at all, even though that is at the heart of the case. The arguments were about whether federal law preempts the state laws. In other words, the oil company lawyers argued that only the federal government can sue them for letting the planet go to hell and the states have no dog in that fight. In effect, they claim that both the Clean Air Act and the Constitution prohibit a state from determining liability for a national issue. After all, destroying the planet is a result of interstate commerce and only the federal government can regulate interstate commerce. Right? Right?

In the event that Boulder prevails, then this case (and others like it) will be fought under state laws and some of them may eventually come back to the Supreme Court on the merits. One wrinkle here is that Justice Samuel Alito has recused himself from this case due to his large holdings in oil company stock. Since the Colorado Supreme Court held that the lawsuit could go forward in state court, a 4-4 tie would mean that the Colorado court's decision stands.

At oral argument, the Court seemed divided on the preemption issue. It seems clear that they were not interested in any broad constitutional ruling that would prohibit bringing these types of cases under any circumstances. But at least three of the justices, Associates Justices Brett Kavanaugh, Amy Coney Barrett and Clarence Thomas, seemed prepared to find that the Clean Air Act (CAA) preempts these types of lawsuits brought under state law. They would have to turn preemption law on its head to reach that conclusion, since the CAA has no explicit preemption language, but those pesky details haven't stopped Kavanaugh and Thomas in the past as they seek to get the outcome they want.

On the other hand, Chief Justice John Roberts seemed very skeptical of the oil companies' position that these types of suits are novel. He wondered how it was different from suits that states have successfully brought against the tobacco and opioid industries in the past. At the same time, he and several other Justices were also concerned about opening the floodgates to nuisance suits for the impacts of climate change. The Boulder attorney pointed out that a fear of litigation is not a legal basis for closing the courthouse doors. Plus, even if the Court allows the suit to go forward, it doesn't mean Boulder will win. They have a lot of hurdles to overcome and any number of legal issues can trip the Coloradans up along the way.

Interestingly, the Trump administration intervened on behalf of the oil companies (taking the opposite position of the Biden administration), but it wasn't Solicitor General John Sauer doing the arguing. Instead, it was principal deputy U.S. solicitor general Sarah Harris who argued before the Court. She was capable, but she clearly does not keep the Court in the same thrall as Sauer. The Court could take that as a signal that the government is not as invested in the outcome or that Sauer isn't all that convinced by the plaintiffs' arguments. A decision is expected by June 2027.

There are, of course, many other hot-button cases coming down the pike. Here's a brief preview of some of the biggies:

Rhoney v. Barbosa da Cunha: This could be the blockbuster of the current term. In the past, when people came to the U.S. and filed court paperwork to remain, they were allowed to post bond and retain their freedom of movement while the court case played out. The Trump administration (i.e. Stephen Miller) wants to be able to detain them while the case plays out, no matter how long the detention nor how inhumane the conditions. After all, after 800 years (since the adoption of the Magna Carta), due process is so... old-fashioned. Passé. Outdated. Quaint. The administration's general idea is to discourage many people from even trying to come to the U.S., and to encourage some of those who have tried it to throw in the towel and self-deport voluntarily. The Court will decide if the Trump administration policy is legal.

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St. Mary Catholic Parish v. Roy: Colorado is the belle of the ball this term, it would seem. In addition to the case heard yesterday, that state is also at the center of a case about discrimination. Colorado, being very blue, provides funding for pre-schools across the state, whether they are public or private. However, the funding from two Catholic-run pre-schools was yanked, because those schools do not allow LGBTQ students or parents. So, the Supreme Court will get to decide: Who is allowed to discriminate here? The state, which has a law that prohibits anti-LGBTQ discrimination? Or the Church, which has religious doctrine that prohibits being LGBTQ?

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Grand v. City of University Heights: Another freedom of religion case. Daniel Grand is an Orthodox Jew who invited 15 friends to his house to pray, thus creating a minyan (minimum 10 Jews needed). The city sent him a letter that said that when you get that many Jews praying in the same place, you now have a synagogue, and you have to get a permit. Grand sued, a wild collection of people and organizations filed amicus briefs on both sides, and now the Supremes will get to decide who is right.

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International Partners for Ethical Care v. Ferguson: Another LGBTQ case, sort of. Actually, it's really just a T case. Under Washington law, if a runaway child presents themselves at a shelter, the child's parents are usually notified. But not always; if the child is receiving physical or mental care for gender dysphoria, then they are referred to the Department of Children, Youth and Families. This is one of several exceptions to the general rule, exceptions intended to protect kids for whom going back home might be unsafe. Several parents (10 of them) challenged the "treatment for gender dysphoria" exception in court, and now SCOTUS will make the call.

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Viramontes v. Cook County: Illinois and Connecticut are the defendants here (their cases were consolidated), and they will argue that they are allowed to enact assault-weapons bans, even under current Second Amendment precedent. There are 10 other states, all of them blue, who will be watching with interest, since they too have assault-weapons bans.

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Jouppi v. Alaska: Ken Jouppi is an Alaska-based pilot who does charter flights on his small private plane. He flew a passenger into Beaver, AK. The passenger had a six-pack of beer, and Beaver is a dry town. Although the beer was not his, Jouppi was charged with violating state liquor laws, and his plane—valued at close to $100,000—was seized and forfeited as punishment. The almost unlimited ability of law enforcement to seize the cash and property of citizens who have violated the law is a real problem, and now SCOTUS will weigh in on the matter.

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Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota: You probably don't need us to tell you what a case that has "Republican" and "Vota" in its name is about, but just in case, the state of Arizona and the Republican Party want voters to be required to provide proof of citizenship when they register. Further, the Arizonans and the Republicans want to be able to kick people who are already registered, but do not provide such proof in a timely manner, off the voter rolls.

Note that there is still space on the docket for the Court to accept more cases, so it's possible there will be some hot potatoes that aren't on the list. And that's before we consider the Court's extremely liberal use of the shadow docket, usually for conservative purposes. (L, V & Z)

Political Bytes, National Edition: Kind of Blue

It's been a while since we've done one of these. We really will need to do at least a couple this week to catch up. We have over 100 links that probably don't merit an entire item, but do at least merit a mention.

Gallup-ing Donkeys: The newest poll from Gallup is quite a doozy, and may help explain why Donald Trump is losing his mind. According to the pollster, 50% of Americans now identify as Democrats, or Democratic-leaning, as opposed to just 39% of Americans who identify as Republican, or Republican-leaning. That is the highest party identification number for the blue team since 2009—i.e., the Barack Obama honeymoon.

Our Take: If half of America is, or leans, blue, then the Democrats don't even need many crossover voters. They just need the people who see themselves as Democrats to vote that way.

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Always in Threes: Everyone knows the old chestnut that celebrities die in threes, right? Well, yesterday gave us quite the trio of high-profile, politics-adjacent deaths. The first to be announced was former Speaker Dennis Hastert, who molested several teenage wrestlers in his charge (before his political career), and then went to prison for trying to hide the hush-money payments he was making to cover it up (at the end of, and after, his political career). The second to be announced was former British MP Jeffrey Archer, who cheated on his wife with a prostitute, was outed in the newspapers, sued for libel and won, and then went to prison when it turned out he had lied on the stand during that libel case. The third to be announced was former televangelist Jim Bakker, who bilked his followers for millions, and who also cheated on his wife, with all of this eventually leading to the collapse of his faux-Christian empire.

Our Take: It would seem that someone in hell decided they needed some reinforcements, pronto.

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The Past, Present, and Future: Presumably, with Dennis Hastert out of office and dead, the Republican Party would prefer that you not think of them as the party of child molesters. The fact that Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), who was also part of a wrestler-molestation scandal, is still in office, does not make that an easy sell. Also not helping the case is that the Palm Beach County Republican Party just endorsed Palm Beach County Clerk of Courts Mike Caruso (R) for reelection. This despite the fact that Caruso was arrested in August for molesting a relative who is a child, and who was under the age of 5 at the time.

Our Take: Is a dinky municipal office really that important? And even if it is, is having a formal endorsement (which doesn't move many votes) out there really necessary? Apparently so. In any case, this is not going to help the perception, one also encouraged by the Epstein files, that the GOP has a real problem with sexual abuse of underaged boys and girls.

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Fox "News"-y Lady: Former White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt has just been hired by Fox as their newest correspondent.

Our Take: Because of course she has. This was as predictable as the Angels not making the playoffs this year. Will the presence of yet another administration mole within the walls of Fox cause Trump to stop kvetching about the lack of rally coverage (and about the firing of Maria Bartiromo)? Probably not.

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Tarred and Feathered: The various Republican PACs just canceled their ad buys for North Carolina's Senate race. Then, the Democratic PACs canceled most of their ad buys for that race. In other words, it's all over but the shoutin'.

Our Take: Roy Cooper (D) is going to be your next senator from North Carolina, while Michael Whatley will have to go back to being "Lord of the Dance," we suppose. That was him, right?

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Schmitt-head: It looks like at least one person will pay a price for the idiotic Jack Smith "gotcha," where the former special counsel was accused of being at an Atlanta Hawks game in Atlanta, when in fact he was at an Iowa Hawkeyes game in Maryland. The lawyer responsible for holding (and making?) the fancy posterboard with Smith's allegedly incriminating tweets, Ethan Harper, was supposed to start a new job at the White House this week. But, presumably because the White House is already overstocked with utter incompetents, that move has been put on ice for now, and maybe forever.

Our Take: OK, voters of Missouri. Now it's your turn when the sleazy Schmitt is up for reelection in 2028.

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Spinning Their Wheels: On Meet the Press this weekend, NBC News senior national political reporter Sahil Kapur did a segment where he revealed that 19,433 bills have been introduced in Congress this session, and only 119 have become law—a passage rate of about 0.6%.

Our Take: The obvious lesson here is that the current Congress doesn't get very much done. That said, every Congress has a pretty low passage rate (albeit not usually this low). The slightly less obvious, but still very clear, lesson is that there are way too many "show" bills that have no possibility of becoming law, and that are only introduced to send a message to one constituency or another. There's no easy fix here, since it would be somewhere between "bad" and "unconstitutional" to limit how many bills any given member can introduce. However, anti-gerrymandering legislation would certainly help some, and so would some version of ranked-choice voting. If you're from a deep-red or deep-blue district, and all you have to do is keep those voters happy, then putting up far-right or far-left legislation is the way to go, even if it has no chance of becoming law. On the other hand, if you actually have to get substantive things done because your district is not hyperpartisan, then there will be fewer nonsense bills.

That's it for now. Good morning, and have a pleasant today. (Z & A)

Today's Senate Polls

New Mexico is bluer than Illinois? New Mexico is 49% Latino and Illinois is 20% Latino. Is there a hint in there somewhere? Maine is 3% Latino and is going to go right down to the wire. (V)

State	Democrat	D %	Republican	R %	Start	End	Pollster
Illinois	Juliana Stratton	49%	Don Tracy	36%	Sep 30	Oct 01	PPP
Maine	Troy Jackson	49%	Susan Collins*	47%	Sep 25	Sep 29	MPRC
New Mexico	Ben Ray Lujan*	54%	Larry Marker	36%	Sep 25	Sep 30	SurveyUSA

* Denotes incumbent

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