War Is Never Simple

Following Donald Trump's gut is probably not the best way to run a war. The war in Iran has many complicating factors that the First Gut didn't consider before jumping in. These could very well come back and bite Trump in a different part of his anatomy, and possibly sooner rather than later.

First, Trump has said the goal of the war is regime change. There are (from time to time) other goals, but this is at least a concrete goal. He said: "We want to go in and clean out everything. We don't want someone who would rebuild over a 10-year period. We want them to have a good leader. We have some people who I think would do a good job." So Trump wants a more thorough house cleaning than in Venezuela, where he swapped in a new dictator for the old one but otherwise left the regime intact. Now he wants a thorough spring cleaning and unconditional surrender.

The problem, as a leaked report from the National Intelligence Council concludes, is that even a large-scale military assault on Iran is unlikely to oust the entrenched ayatollahs. Among other things, the ayatollahs were expecting the U.S. to attempt to kill Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prepared for it. Power in Iran is relatively decentralized. Taking out a dozen or so top leaders will not cause the regime to collapse, That is very different from a completely centralized regime like Russia, where killing Vladimir Putin and the whole Politburo would cripple the regime.

Suzanne Maloney, an Iran scholar and vice president of the Brookings Institution, said: "There's no other force within Iran that can confront the remaining power that the regime has. Even if they're not able to project that power very effectively against their neighbors, they can certainly dominate inside the country." There is no way Trump will be able to pick the new leader of Iran the way he did in Venezuela.

Indeed, as if on cue, shortly after news of the leaked report broke, the ayatollahs picked a new leader, namely Mojtaba Khamenei. If that last names seems familiar, it is because he is the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the leader who was killed last week. Needless to say, it would be hard to come up with a regime change that involves less actual change than replacing a fundamentalist theocrat with his own son. In fact, there's a pretty good case to be made that swapping Khameneis is actually a step backwards. Dad was 86, and was not going to hang on that much longer. Junior is 56, and will surely be around for decades. Plus, given what happened, he and his security team are going to be on high alert for a very long time.

What Trump is sliding into, whether he knows it or not, is—to borrow a phrase from Karl Marx—a "pie in the sky, by and by" situation. As with Vietnam, a really great resolution seems to be on the horizon, but it's always just out of reach. Given the almost total lack of vision or long-term planning here (more on this tomorrow), it's well within the realm of possibility that the Trump administration will just keep chasing and chasing and chasing. We didn't get that pie today, but we'll get it tomorrow, sure as shootin'!

Second, there is a chance that if the U.S. and Israel can kill enough of the leadership, there will be a power vacuum at the top and Iran will descend into civil war. That is what happened in Syria, a much smaller country. Iran is home to many ethnic groups—Kurds, Armenians and Azerbaijanis, in particular—with ties to neighboring countries who might try to change Iran's borders to join up with their compatriots. The 200,000-man strong Revolutionary Guard would never tolerate dismembering Iran. Nor would the 400,000-man regular armed forces. In Libya, Moammar Gaddafi fell 14 years ago and still no one group controls the country.

Israel might not mind Iran becoming a failed state but that would not be in the interest of the U.S. or Iran's Arab neighbors. They want the region to be stable so oil, goods, money, and people can flow easily. They do not want millions of refugees fleeing a civil war, nor fighting that could spill over Iran's borders at any time.

Third, war is expensive. Bombs and missiles cost money. Deploying troops costs money. Fuel costs money. Infrastructure and logistics cost money. Some reports say the U.S. is burning through at least $1 billion a day. Trump is expected to ask Congress to appropriate $50 billion as the first installment. Deficit hawks are not going to like that. It is going to unleash a battle in both chambers of Congress, with the deficit hawks demanding equivalent cuts elsewhere in the budget and Democrats refusing to go along. In principle, the bill could be packaged as a reconciliation bill, which cannot be filibustered in the Senate, but that would require almost all the Republicans to be on the same page, which might not be so easy. And remember this is for a war Congress did not declare and which not all members want.

Fourth, Trump has spent a year telling Europe that it is not important and he is not interested in defending anyone or anything beyond the borders of the U.S. Now he wants help from the Europeans, not necessarily in terms of planes and ships, but more in terms of using the bases various countries have around the world for staging, refueling, logistical support, etc. Who could have predicted this (other than every senior official at the State Dept.)?

Maybe all the European leaders will snap to attention and say: "Yes, sir. Of course, sir. Whatever you ask, sir." But maybe they might have a couple of conditions of their own this time. Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto said "The war in Iran began unbeknownst to the world and was not a decision shared by anyone. Of course, it was well outside the rules of international law. We don't need to say it." That doesn't sound like a synonym for "Yes, sir."

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz met with Trump last week. he did not seem pleased when Trump told him he didn't want a lecture about the illegality of the war. One German newspaper described Metz' visit with the headline: "Clueless tourist stranded in crisis zone." Spain's leader, Pedro Sánchez, noted that Europe can hardly fault Russia for an unprovoked attack on Ukraine without faulting America for an unprovoked attack on Iran. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is a first-rate diplomat, but getting all the noses pointed in the same direction will be a supreme challenge, even for her.

Fifth, remember when Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy was humiliated in the Oval Office when Trump told him: "You have no cards"? He still has no cards, but he does have the world's best and cheapest drones. And Trump wants them right now. But Ukraine needs them for its own war and is not likely to give them up without getting something of value in return. The cheapest thing Zelenskyy could ask for is having Trump switch sides in the "peace" talks with Russia and publicly taking the Ukrainian position that Russia attacked Ukraine and is not entitled to any Ukrainian territory as a reward.

A less cheap request could be for Patriot missiles or ATACM missiles. The Patriot is a surface-to-air defensive weapon for shooting down incoming planes, missiles, etc. and costs $1-6 million per missile, depending on range and payload. The ATACM is a short-range surface-to-surface attack missile that flies at Mach 3 and has a ceiling of 160,000 ft (30 miles). The range is 180 miles, much shorter than the tomahawk missile, which can hit targets 1,000 miles away. ATACMs cost $1.5 million each. Trump has refused to give Ukraine tomahawks for fear it will then target Moscow and upset his buddy Vladimir. ATACMs, however, are tactical weapons, for fighting land battles. They are less threatening to Putin.

Yet another problem is that Trump, probably the greatest grifter since Bernie Madoff, figured out how to make money off a war. He is allowing the E.U. to buy weapons they can then give to Ukraine. The trouble is the E.U. agreed and paid for the weapons but now Trump doesn't want to part with them because he needs them for Iran. This does not improve trans-Atlantic relations.

And these are just a few of the problems with the war itself. We'll have more tomorrow, including a breakdown of a biggie that could haunt Trump and the GOP in November. (V & Z)

Political Bytes: All the Way with the SAA

Time for another quick review of news of interest:

He's Venal, Not Stupid...: Texas AG and wannabe U.S. Senate candidate Ken Paxton (R) is one of the most wildly corrupt office-seekers in recent memory (which is really saying something, given the current state of the GOP). He knows that the GOP leadership sees him as less electable than Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), and that there is enormous pressure on Donald Trump to act like a party leader, and back the more viable candidate. Over the weekend, it was reported that the Trump endorsement of Cornyn was imminent. That would probably be fatal for the hopes of the very MAGA Paxton. So, he announced an "offer": He would drop out of the race entirely if the Senate passes the SAVE America Act.

Our Take: This was a pretty shrewd move from Paxton. He knows full well that the SAVE America Act can't pass while the filibuster is in place, and that the Senate Republican Conference is not willing to do that, with Cornyn being among the most outspoken members on that point. In other words, the AG has written a check that he will never, ever have to cash, while reminding Trump that Cornyn is just not loyal enough to do whatever the President wants with no questions asked.

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...But HE Is Venal AND Stupid: Trump is also venal, but he's nowhere near as smart as Paxton. And so, as part of his ongoing push to ram the SAVE America Act through the Senate, Trump announced this weekend that he will not sign any other bills until the Senate passes the legislation.

Our Take: Trump really, really wants the SAVE America Act, even though it might end up hurting MAGA voters quite a bit. And he tends to dig his heels in on things like this, because they become extensions of his ego. That said, surely Chief of Staff Susie Wiles or someone else will impress upon him that Senate Republicans are not going to kill the filibuster because they are scared witless of what the Democrats will do once they get the keys to the kingdom, and that following through on this promise/threat would be a giant gift to the blue team heading into the midterms.

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Kiley Takes the Plunge: Rep. Kevin Kiley (I-CA) is officially a former Republican, as of yesterday. He had already filed to run for reelection as an independent, and now he's advised the clerk of the House to list him as "I" and not "R."

Our Take: We are not especially interested in Kiley's future prospects, which are close to zero. This business of kinda pretending to be simpatico with both parties does not tend to satisfy voters from either party, unless you've been an (I) for your whole career. What we are interested in is how Kiley will vote moving forward. He says he will still caucus with the GOP, and he's gotta vote with them sometimes, to keep his conservative bona fides. But he's also got to cross the aisle on at least a few high-profile votes, to show that he's an "independent thinker." Put another way, Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-LA) life just got a little harder—exactly how much harder remains to be seen.

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Blue Cheese: We had an item yesterday about how Rebecca Bradley, one of the three right-leaning judges on the seven-person Wisconsin Supreme Court has decided to retire, raising the distinct possibility that the 4-3 liberal majority will become a 5-2 liberal majority. Well, yesterday, the next judge scheduled to be up for reelection—conservative Annette Ziegler, whose term ends in 2027—announced that she too will retire, so she can spend more time with her grandkids.

Our Take: Ziegler has been on the court for 20 years, so she may indeed have had enough. She might also see the writing on the wall, with three lefty-judge electoral wins in a row, and a fourth a real possibility. In any case, Democrats may soon have as firm a grip on the Wisconsin Supreme Court as Republicans have on the U.S. Supreme Court.

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Warm Smell of Colitas: Yesterday, Administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Dr. Mehmet Oz announced that Obamacare enrollment fell much less than expected, declining by only 2 million people rather than 5 million, despite higher premiums. He declared that this is because roughly 5 million people are enrolled who should not be, either due to error or fraud. Experts who do not depend on Donald Trump to keep their jobs say that there are certainly some people who should not be enrolled, but that the 5 million figure is laughable.

Our Take: They stab it with their steely knives, but they just can't kill the beast.

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Trump 250™: Fresh off of trademarking a bunch of variants of "Trump International Airport," the Trump Organization has just filed paperwork for trademarks on a bunch of variants of Trump 250, in advance of the United States' 250th birthday celebrations later this year.

Our Take: As crazy as it sounds, we think it just might be possible that Trump's rah-rah stuff about the bisesquicentennial is more about grift than it is about patriotism.

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Good Riddance: Former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is the fellow who tried to shut down the (hostile) legislature by declaring martial law and trying to use soldiers to arrest his opponents. It did not work, and not only was he stripped of power, but now he's been sentenced to life in prison.

Our Take: It would seem that, in some countries, it is a crime for the leader to incite an insurrection. How quaint.

And that's the way it is. (Z)

The Return of DHS?

There is some amount of scuttlebutt that the decline and fall of Kristi Noem, coupled with the imminent promotion of Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) as her replacement, might be enough to get the DHS shutdown resolved, and to allow the department to fully reopen.

The political calculus here is really pretty simple. There is very little possibility of Senate Republicans backing a bill that would limit the powers of ICE, and even less chance of Donald Trump signing such a bill into law. Meanwhile, ICE has receded from the headlines, for at least the last 2-3 weeks, while the summer travel season will soon be upon us, making the TSA shutdowns much more of a problem for voters.

There is no question, mind you, that most Senate Democrats want to hold the line here, either because they themselves believe ICE needs to be reined in, or because they believe their voters think that. However, "most Senate Democrats" is not "all Senate Democrats." Sen. John Fetterman (D?-PA) has already been voting with the Republicans on this, and a few other moderates (e.g., Sen. Peter Welch, D-VT) have shown a willingness to cross the aisle, too. It only takes seven of them, assuming the Republicans remain unified, to get to 60 votes and cloture.

Reportedly, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is not in favor of surrendering, but he may not be willing to whip votes to get his way, and he may tell his caucus to vote as they see fit. We think that is a mistake, politically, but for some reason, Chuck didn't call us to ask for our opinion. (Z)

The Sheen Is off Martin

Ken Martin has been running the DNC for a little more than a year, having taken over from Jaime Harrison in February of last year. We don't know if DNC chairs get a honeymoon period, but even if they do, Martin's is definitely over. We had an item about Martin yesterday, but the news keeps coming, so here is more.

Democratic officeholders and functionaries have many, many complaints about Martin's leadership. Here is a list of what appear to be the Top 10 sources of griping:

1. He is thin-skinned, and does not take criticism well, nor course-correct.
2. He holds grudges.
3. He relies on his longtime cronies, and does not welcome input from outside his "Minnesota Mafia."
4. He keeps things close to the vest and does not share his plans with other Democrats.
5. He promises money is coming, then doesn't deliver. This happened in both NJ and VA last year.
6. He clung to the "midterm convention" idea long after everyone else knew it was a bad idea.
7. He completely botched the 2024 "autopsy," promising to release it, and then doing a 180.
8. He won't even share the autopsy with most Democratic insiders, leading to frustration and conspiracy theories.
9. The DNC is cash-strapped, and may soon have to lay off some staff.
10. The lack of money is due, at least in part, to Martin doing a poor job as a fundraiser.

That is a pretty long list of complaints for a fellow who's only been on the job for 13 months.

We do not doubt that party chairs serve as scapegoats for anything and everything that ails their party, whether fair or not. We also do not doubt that when things go well, the politicians get most of the credit, but when things go poorly, the behind-the-scenes operatives get most of the blame. That said, there is no question that the #1 job of a party chair is to raise money, and if they're not doing that well, they are failing. We also suspect that while "nice and safe" was what Democrats wanted when Martin was elected a year ago, the events of the lasst year have many party members longing for a different kind of leader—maybe younger, more inspiring, and more of a rabble-rouser.

The party committees tend to matter a fair bit less during midterm cycles, particularly after the primary fields are set (and, in most races, they already are). However, they matter a lot during presidential cycles. The presidency is the big prize, primary debates need to be staged, conventions need to be organized, money is spread thinner and needs to be raised by the bushel and triaged effectively, etc. So, Martin better right the ship, or he could find himself out of a job. (Z)

The Sports Report: Of Blue Ribbon Panels, MMA, and an Ignoramus

There was a fair bit of political news out of the world of sports over the past few days. Sports is constantly political, despite many people's protests to the contrary, and that is doubly true with a president who is determined to use sporting events and athletes as a major tools in his political toolkit.

To start, many Americans are unhappy about the state of college athletics. It used to be that "student" athletes were tied down to their schools in what was basically a form of indentured servitude. Now, the script has flipped, and they can go anywhere, switching schools pretty much as often as they please, in search of money, or playing time, or both. There is so much turnover, that college sports fans—to borrow a line from Jerry Seinfeld—find themselves essentially rooting for laundry these days. Admittedly, it is often laundry that has the same name on it as their diploma does, but still...

To "address" this crisis, Donald Trump convened a blue ribbon panel at the White House this weekend, with roughly 50 pretty heavy-duty movers and shakers from the world of sports invited to participate and to deliver brief remarks. If you had asked us before this weekend, we would have said there is no greater waste of time than a "blue ribbon panel." But we were wrong about that. It turns out there is an even greater waste of time, namely a "blue ribbon panel where Donald Trump is the featured speaker."

As you might guess, Trump prattled on and on, demonstrating a pretty poor understanding of college sports in general, and of the specific issues that might plausibly be addressed. He also indulged in several of his signature digressions into subjects that have nothing to do with sports. Trump's conclusion was that everything can be solved with a lawsuit that is "rammed" through the courts, and that until then, he is going to issue an executive order to straighten everything out. Needless to say, the NCAA is not an executive department, and so is not subject to executive orders from Trump or any other president.

Moving along, there has been much hype about the bouts that UFC, the mixed martial arts promotion led by ultra-MAGA-man Dana White, will stage during their $60 million America 250 event, to take place on the grounds of the White House. As with the Turning Point USA halftime show, the lineup has been kept "secret" for many weeks, in order to ostensibly build suspense. And, as with the Turning Point USA halftime show, people are underwhelmed now that they know exactly who is participating.

White, given what his job is, will never admit that this card is anything but the greatest fight card ever. Record-breaking. Historic. People are saying that there will never again be a fight card this good. However, it is clear that there were some... challenges, most of them stemming from the politics of the thing:

• It is very clear that many MMA fighters wanted no part of the Trump administration, especially given that "Fu** ICE" chants have become common at UFC events in past weeks. Some athletes don't like Trump and what he stands for, others are apolitical (or even MAGA) but don't want to alienate fans.
  
  
• Islam Makhachev is overdue for a title fight, and yet is not on the card. Some speculate that is because it would not be well for a Russian to win a fight on the front lawn of the White House. Others think that it would not be well for a Muslim named Islam to win a fight on the front lawn of the White House. And, by the way, Makhachev's coach is named Muslim Amiraslanov. Really.
  
  
• Conor McGregor, who is a well-known Trump lover, badly wanted to be included. But he was found civilly liable for raping a woman, and forced to pay damages. That's just a wee bit too on-point for him to appear at a Trump-hosted event.
  
  
• At a big event like this, there's almost always at least one women's match. Not this time, though. The general presumption is that women's fights are too woke for this White House. As chance would have it, two of the most prominent women MMA fighters in the world, Ronda Rousey and Gina Carano, will face off instead at a non-UFC-sanctioned bout in Los Angeles on May 16.

There is some more reading between the lines taking place on social media, but these four suppositions appear to be the most well-founded. In any case, it's a reminder that for all the talk of liberal snowflakes, Trump's brand of politics comes with a lot of baggage, and it requires a lot of tiptoeing through the tulips to keep him from blowing a gasket.

And finally, since we're writing a sports item anyhow, we'll note that Stephen A. Smith, who might be the biggest gasbag in sports media (it's either him or Pat McAfee), and who alternately pretends to be a Democrat and an independent, has announced that he's not going to run for president in 2028.

Any reader who knows Smith at all knows he's got a head bigger than Mount Rushmore, and that he's convinced that there's one thing the world can't get enough of, namely Stephen A. Smith. (Z) knows someone who was Smith's colleague 30 years ago, and he's been like this forever, long before he was a famous ESPN personality. As a walking embodiment of Dunning-Kruger, Smith seemed to believe that the only thing keeping him from mounting a serious run, and from getting on the debate stage during the Democratic candidates' debates, was whether or not he decided to grace the blue team with his presence. Never mind that the small number of times he was polled as a candidate, he did not break 2% support.

Smith is pretty smart about his image, and so it's entirely possible that behind the bravado, he knew he was destined to fail in embarrassing fashion. However, his official reason for "dropping out," if you can even call it that, is really quite hilarious: He said he did not want to give up his $20 million annual salary. That tells you he really isn't paying much attention to politics. If he was, he'd know that it's easy to make far, far more than that as president. $SAS meme coin, anyone? (Z)

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