Illinois Will Hold Its Hotly Contested Primaries Tomorrow

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) is 81 and retiring. There is an intense battle to succeed him on the Democratic side, the only side that matters in this blue state. The main contenders are Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D-IL) and Reps. Robin Kelly (D-IL) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL). Stratton and Kelly are both Black and Krishnamoorthi is an Indian-American, so the next senator from Illinois will almost certainly be a person of color.

Another thing the three have in common is a hatred for ICE and Donald Trump's immigration policies. Stratton marched with protesters after ICE invaded Chicago. She is in favor of abolishing ICE altogether. Kelly wants to go further and abolish all of DHS. She also has campaigned on impeaching Kristi Noem, of flying bedroom fame, but that is a moot point now. Kelly said of ICE: "You can't wear masks. You have to have cameras on. You can't just kidnap people off the street. You can't just go to people's homes without a warrant." Krishnamoorthi was blocked by ICE agents when he tried to observe a detention center outside of Chicago. He is a moderate. Nevertheless, he said: "I'm a racial, religious and ethnic minority and an immigrant with 29 letters in my name. I care deeply about making sure that nobody gets otherized, whoever they are, including immigrants." In case you are wondering, his first name is Subramanian (hence the 29 letters) and he is a practicing Hindu.

For the most part, there is not a huge amount of difference between the three on most policy issues. One difference, however, is that Stratton has the strong financial backing of Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL). Many people see this election as a test of Pritzker's viability as a 2028 presidential nominee. If he can power Stratton to the Senate, that looks good for him. If he can't, well, not so good.

A major issue here is that Stratton and Kelly are both Black women. Stratton has Pritzker's millions, the endorsements of five senators, five representatives, most of the Democrats in the state legislature, and many outside groups. Kelly has the endorsement of the Congressional Black Caucus and dozens of progressive elected Democrats from all over the country, including two senators and 54 representatives. Krishnamoorthi has the endorsement of 32 (mostly moderate) House Democrats.

Clearly there is a serious fragmentation here. Illinois does not have runoffs or ranked-choice voting. It's first-past-the-post. If each of the women gets 30% of the vote and Krishnamoorthi gets 40%, he wins outright. This shows (again) that first-past-the-post is not a good system anymore, since there are often multiple viable candidates.

The polls show Stratton and Krishnamoorthi in the lead, with some polls putting Stratton on top and some putting Krishnamoorthi on top. Kelly has not led in any poll.

Six Republicans are running for the GOP Senate nomination. We don't know why since they have no chance to win the general election. Ditto for the Republican nomination for governor to oppose popular and very well funded Pritzker.

There are also four hot primaries for vacant House seats. IL-02 is Kelly's seat. It is in the South Side of Chicago and D+18. There are 10 Democrats running, including Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller, State Sens. Robert Peters and Willie Preston, and Jesse Jackson's son, Jesse Jackson Jr.

IL-07 is also a vacant seat due to the retirement of Rep. Danny Davis (D-IL). There are 13 Democrats in the mix here. That is hardly surprising in a D+34 district in the Chicago Loop area. There has been only one poll of the race and state Rep. La Shawn Ford is leading.

IL-08 is Krishnamoorthi's district. The district is in the Chicago suburbs and only D+5. The candidates include businessman Neil Khot, Hanover Park Trustee Yasmeen Bankole, tech consultant Junaid Ahmad, Cook County Board Commissioner Kevin Morrison and former 8th District Rep. Melissa Bean. There has been one poll and "Don't know" is the winner, with 68% of the (non-)vote.

IL-09 is the D+19 district of the retiring Rep. Jan Schakowsky. It is in Chicago's northern suburbs. A staggering 15 Democrats filed to run here. Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss and content creator and leftist influencer Kat Abughazaleh are leading in the one poll of the race.

There are a few other local primaries in Illinois tomorrow. No other state is holding any primaries tomorrow. The next primaries up are Indiana and Ohio on May 5. (V)

First Bomb, Then Think

That is the U.S. strategy in Iran. On Saturday, the U.S. bombed Kharg Island, a coral island one-third the size of Manhattan 15 miles off the coast of Iran. The island is where 90% of Iran's oil exports begin. Donald Trump claimed that the oil infrastructure wasn't bombed, but everything on the island is related to exporting oil, so the bombing is sure to hurt oil exports, even if oil tanks weren't hit directly. There won't be any oil exported from the island for a while. That will teach Iran! Here is a photo of the island before the war.

It may also teach Donald Trump a thing or two. Putting Humpty Dumpty together again won't be easy or quick, even after hostilities are over. This means that Iran's oil exports will be cut off for weeks or months, which will certainly hurt the Iranian regime (but not likely enough to cause a revolution, because the army and Revolutionary Guard have all the guns and no hesitation about using them).

But any reduction in world oil supply will push oil prices up and keep them there, likely through the midterms. Trump is probably thinking: "The U.S. does not import any oil from Iran, so we are safe." But oil is largely fungible, and if world oil prices go up, American oil companies will naturally raise their prices to world levels, even if they don't have to. Extra profit is always welcome. If crude prices go up, so will gas prices. Even a somewhat modest per gallon increase will give the Democrats something to talk about, as in: "The Republicans' war of choice resulted in [X] brave American soldiers dying and you paying [Y] more per gallon at the pump, all for nothing. Are prices lower now, the way Trump promised you? No, he lied to you again."

Another issue with "bomb first, think later" is that waging war without congressional approval violates the Constitution, which could be an easy-peasy article of impeachment if the Democrats capture the House in November. Trump is apparently aware of that and would like a declaration to cover his rear end on that, albeit a bit after the fact. He knows the votes for a proper declaration aren't there, but there is a workaround: Ask Congress to appropriate some money for the war and then claim that is an implicit "authorization." In reality, the defense budget is roughly $870 billion, give or take a few billion. There is plenty of room there for Trump to move money around to pay for the war without going to Congress. If the Navy has to wait a couple of years for its tenth or eleventh aircraft carrier or the Air Force doesn't get as many F-35s as it would like, that wouldn't be a disaster. The trouble with that approach is that it wouldn't be an implicit authorization for the war and thus wouldn't eliminate the potential article of impeachment. That is the real reason Trump is about to ask for a supplemental authorization: to dare Democrats to vote against it and most likely get money and the implicit authorization for the war. Better late than never. Such a request puts Democrats on the spot. An "aye" vote "authorizes" the war and a "nay" vote leads to Republicans campaigning on "Democrats don't support the troops."

The main problems for Trump here are: (1) the voters are more sensitive to gas prices than abstract arguments like what powers the Constitution delegates to Congress and (2) the voters have the collective memory of a swarm of fleas. By November, everyone will have forgotten about any supplemental appropriation in March and will react to the situation as it is then.

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is critical. Right now there is basically no traffic through the Strait and Iran likes it that way. To reopen the Strait there are two approaches. First, the U.S. Navy could escort vessels through the Strait. However, there is no guarantee that if Iran fires 100 drones at a tanker that the Navy could take down all of them. "Most of them" isn't good enough. The other approach is to send in the Marines and occupy the coast to prevent attacks in the first place. The risk here is high casualties and public opinion turning sharply against the war.

In both cases, minesweepers would be needed to clear the mines Iran has already placed in the Strait. That could take a while since the clearing has to be thorough enough to convince the oil companies to risk restarting shipping. Large modern tankers cost $100 million and no oil company wants to lose one to a $50,000 drone. Trump has said the U.S. can offer insurance, but anyone who is smart enough to have made it to CEO of a big oil company knows that Trump has a long history of reneging on payments he is contractually required to make. And even if insurance did cover the loss of the tanker and cargo, it could be months or years before the tanker is replaced, with the loss of business in the meantime. Last we looked, you can't order tankers on Amazon with same-day delivery by drone. (V)

Veterans Are Speaking for the Democrats

Which Democrats are the best voices to attack Donald Trump on his (possible forever) war of choice in Iran? Combat veterans, of course, and Democrats have two winners to go with, both just coincidentally likely 2028 presidential candidates going for a test drive. The most visible ones are the two Arizona senators, Ruben Gallego and Mark Kelly. In the 2 weeks since the Iran War started, Gallego has made a dozen media appearances, including some popular podcasts. He was an infantryman in Iraq in 2005 and knows something about forever wars. He talked about dodging bullets, IEDs, RPGs, clearing towns, losing friends, and not understanding what the goal was. He is very critical of the administration, saying Secretary of State Marco Rubio is doing "CYA." He also said there is no clear plan or idea of what victory would look like.

The other Arizonan, Kelly, is a retired Navy captain (equivalent to a colonel in the Army) and astronaut who flew combat missions during Operation Desert Storm in 1990 and later piloted multiple space shuttle missions. He has also been all over the media saying: "American taxpayers are getting a really bad deal in the war with Iran." He has blasted Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth for saying the U.S. would offer "no quarter" to its enemies. That actually has a specific meaning, namely, if an enemy soldier tried to surrender, the "no quarter" order would mean killing him rather than taking him prisoner. That would violate international law, so the order from the Secretary would be illegal and it would be a crime for a soldier to obey it.

The group VoteVets Action is holding a series of town halls with veterans and others who did national security work, including Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) and Pete Buttigieg. Gallego is going to do one later this month. These also serve to raise the profile for potential 2028 presidential (and vice presidential) candidates. Having a military or security background could be a plus in 2028, especially against a Republican with such a background. J.D. Vance, in particular, served in the Marine Corps in Iraq for 4 years. However, unlike Gallego and Kelly, both of whom were in actual combat roles, Vance was a military journalist and photographer and didn't face enemy fire. Rubio is not a veteran and his "war" experience will be entirely based on his work as secretary of state. If he negotiates a good, popular, and lasting ending to the war in Iran, that will work to his credit. However, if there is an ambiguous and messy withdrawal with the Iranian regime stronger than ever, Rubio won't be able to play that card. (V)

Trump Opens Federal Land for Coal Mining--and Nobody Is Bidding

Donald Trump loves coal more than anyone this side of Joe Manchin. He has a real lock on the 40,000 remaining coal miners in the U.S. (down from 100,000 in the early 2000s, so not a growth industry). Coal miners make around $50K. Trump has tried to help the miners and the industry by using his emergency powers to force aging and polluting coal plants to keep operating, even when the owners want to shut them down for business reasons.

In his bid to bring coal back from the dead, Trump has ordered millions of acres of federal land opened for coal mining. But something strange happened on the way to the gold coal rush. The electric-power industry is not interested. Auctions in Utah have been scheduled and rescheduled for lack of bids. For a tract in Montana, there has been only one bid. It was from the Navajo Transitional Electric Company. The tribe offered to mine 167 million tons of coal but was willing to pay only 1¢ per ton for it. The bid was way below the market value and the Bureau of Land Management rejected it. Basically, coal auctions are failing all over because the power companies want to invest in 21st century power generation, not 19th century technology. Using coal to power an AI data center would seem ironic, to say the least. (V)

Trump Again Shows He Is a Communist at Heart

The essential characteristic of capitalism is a free market run by private companies pursuing profit as best they can without any government involvement. Communism (or, at least, socialism) is where the government owns (or at least manages) the means of production. Donald Trump has repeatedly shown that his heart is with communism. He has forced selected companies to sell some of their stock to the government, allowing it to own (part of) the means of production, the very definition of communism. The companies include Intel, L3Harris, Lithium Americas, MP Materials, Trilogy Metals, U.S. Steel, USA Rare Earth, Westinghouse, Vulcan Elements, and XLight. He has also ordered Amazon, Anthropic, Apple, AstraZeneca, AT&T, Bristol Mayers Squibb, Eli Lilly, Google, Hyundai, IBM, John Deere, Johnson & Johnson, JPMorgan Chase, Meta, Novartis, Roche, Sanofi, Stellantis, TSMC, and NVIDIA to make investments of at least $10 billion in order to curry his favor. President Xi Jinping of China must be proud of his student—except for the part about Trump forgetting about the deal after the photo-op and not caring that the investment is never actually made. If a Democratic president had intervened so deeply in the affairs of private companies, Republicans would have gone ballistic, screaming "Communism! Communism! Communism!" from the rooftops, and it would have been true. Now, only praise for Trump's great deals.

The latest of Comrade Trump's deals involves TikTok. Congress passed a law ordering TikTok to divest itself of its U.S. operations or be banned from operating in the U.S. The law was passed to avoid having a Chinese company own massive data about Americans. Trump didn't see it that way at all. He didn't care about the Chinese having data about over 100 million Americans. He cared only about who got the profits from TikTok. Consequently, he brokered a deal between ByteDance (the company that owns TikTok) and a group of his cronies, including Larry Ellison and Michael Dell, to buy the right to the profits from the U.S. part of TikTok. Part of the deal was for TikTok to pay a bribe fee of $10 billion to the U.S. treasury for the privilege of allowing the deal to go forward. Since the U.S. part of TikTok is valued at only $14 billion, that is a pretty hefty fee. Aaron Bartnick, a former assistant director for technology security under Joe Biden, said $10 billion was "outrageously large." (V)

House Oversight Committee to Hear Epstein's Guard

One of the "odd" things about the death of Jeffrey Epstein on Aug. 10, 2019, is that he was on suicide watch and was supposed to be guarded 24/7. Two of his guards, Tova Noel and Michael Thomas, were charged in Nov. 2019 with falsifying records, claiming they had completed their rounds of the special housing unit, where Epstein was kept, when they didn't. The indictment said they spent their shift at their desks browsing the Internet. At 6:30 a.m. on the day Epstein died, Noel and Thomas discovered his body.

The indictment was later dropped for some reason. The recent dump of more Epstein files has brought some strange tidbits to light, to wit:

• A series of small cash deposits—adding up to about $12,000—to Noel's bank account between April 2018 and July 2019. Most of the deposits occurred before Epstein was arrested. The last one came 10 days prior to his death. Noel's bank flagged those transactions to the FBI in a suspicious activity report, which was filed a few days after Noel's federal indictment, according to recently disclosed files.
  
  
• A brief flash of orange seen on prison surveillance video in an area near Epstein's cell at 10:40 p.m. the night before Epstein was discovered unresponsive with a noose made from orange cloth.
  
  
• A list of Noel's browsing history, which included internet searches for furniture, benefits websites and the "latest on Epstein in jail."

On account of all these oddities and "coincidences" (e.g., no guards present just when the video surveillance cameras "failed"), Committee Chairman James Comer (R-KY) wants to have a word with Noel next week, under oath. He said: "No one's accusing her of any wrongdoing, but we have a lot of questions about Epstein."

Also peculiar is that at 10:40 on Aug. 9, a corrections officer "believed to be Noel" carried linen or clothing to the tier where Epstein's cell was. This was the linen with which Epstein was found hanging. In a sworn interview, Noel has denied bringing Epstein the linen that night. All this material surely gives the members things to ask about.

This is the normal way prosecutors work. They start at the bottom and work their way up the food chain. Sometimes something a minor player has to say breaks the case wide open. In 1973, Fred Thompson, then minority counsel for the Senate Watergate Committee, casually asked witness Alexander Butterfield: "Mr. Butterfield, are you aware of the installation of any listening devices in the Oval Office of the president?" Butterfield didn't want to lie under oath and revealed the secret taping system Richard Nixon had installed. That off-hand question and answer led to a subpoena for the tapes and ultimately Nixon's resignation. Butterfield died last week at 99. (V)

MAGA Does. Not. Want. John Cornyn

Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) is rapidly abandoning everything he has stood for in 40 years in elected office in a desperate attempt to get Donald Trump to endorse him. He will beg. He will eat dirt. He will do anything for that endorsement. The problem is that the MAGA base is pushing back hard. MAGA supporters see Cornyn as the embodiment of everything they hate about D.C. and politics. They do not want Trump to endorse Cornyn. Yes, his opponent, Ken Paxton, cheated on his wife, but he is faithful to MAGA, and that is what counts. So Trump is caught between a rock and a hard place: Endorse Paxton and risk losing the Senate seat or endorse Cornyn and risk losing his base.

Among the people pushing hard for Paxton are Steve Bannon, Laura Loomer, Mike Cernovich and Jack Posobiec, all key MAGA people. They and other true-blue MAGA supporters have less direct access to Trump than the Cornyn-supporting senators. Consequently, they are using a different approach. They are posting like crazy to social media, in an attempt to convince Trump that the grassroots is so angry with go-along-get-along establishment figures like Cornyn that Trump will not dare defy them.

Trump's problem with the Texas race is not his only problem with MAGA. Much of his base is furious that he started another forever war in the Middle East after explicitly promising not to do so. Endorsing Cornyn would be a second strike against him. And it might be enough to keep a substantial number of America-First voters home on Election Day. That could result in even bigger losses than one Senate seat. Trump is going to have to decide fairly soon and his decision is going to anger a lot of people, no matter which way he goes. (V)

Trump Endorses Kevin Hern for Markwayne Mullins' Senate Seat

If Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) continues to agree to trade in a good job for life in the Senate for a lousy job as secretary of DHS for at most 3 years, and the Senate confirms him, that frees up his Senate seat. In most states, what happens is that the governor picks someone he or she wants to see become the new fixture in the Senate, although once in a while the governor wants a placeholder for some reason (e.g., when Dianne Feinstein died in office and Gov. Gavin Newsom, D-CA, didn't want to get involved in the succession, he appointed Laphonza Butler as a placeholder until the end of Feinstein's term).

Oklahoma law is different from that of most states. Appointed senators are not allowed to run in the next special or general election. They are only placeholders until the people of Oklahoma elect someone. Given how red Oklahoma is, the upcoming regular election for Mullins' seat in November could start a feeding frenzy with any or all of the five representatives (all Republicans) or any or all of the statewide officers (all Republicans) running in the GOP primary for a full term.

Donald Trump wants to forestall that by anointing Mullins' successor himself. His choice is Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK), who is plenty MAGA. Prior to Trump's announcement, Rep. Stephanie Asady Bice (R-OK) was considering a run for the Senate. After the announcement she decided to stay in OK-05 (Oklahoma City). This might not be a great time for her to run statewide, though, since she is of Iranian and Pakistani descent and would be constantly asked about the famous Florence Reece song: "Which side are you on?" (V)

Clyburn Will Run Again

Not everyone has gotten the memo that Democrats want generational change. In particular, Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC), a legend if ever there were one, seems to have missed it. At his age, you miss a lot of things. He will be 86 in July and is running for an 18th term. He will be 88 at the end of it, if he makes it, and we don't mean "if he is elected"—which is a certainty.

Clyburn is a civil rights icon and power broker in South Carolina. He single-handedly saved Joe Biden's bacon in 2020. Without him, Biden wouldn't have gotten the Democratic nomination. His annual fish fry is an institution. Clyburn is a liberal on almost everything. Gay rights was not originally on his agenda but he eventually came around to accepting it.

He has held several leadership positions within the House Democratic caucus, usually the #3 slot. He gave up that position in 2023 to become an assistant to Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY). He gave up that position in 2024.

Clyburn is alert and competent, but Democrats are looking for new blood and that's not him. Before announcing another run, he consulted with his three daughters. They voted 2-1 for another run. So far there is no challenger and there might not be. In MS-02 last week, Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-MS), who is 78, easily fended off a 34-year-old challenger. That could have been the signal that Clyburn could safely pull the trigger. The district, SC-06, covers parts of Columbia and Charleston and is D+13, so unless Clyburn gets a very strong challenger, he is likely to get his 18th term.

We said "likely" rather than definitely because there is a chance the Supreme Court will toss the Voting Rights Act into the paper shredder of history and allow the state legislature to divvy up his majority-minority district so a Republican can win it. However, the election cycle is well under way now, so our guess is that the Supremes will kill the VRA but with a proviso that the current districts are to remain for the Nov. 2026 elections and the gerrymandering to tear up all the Black districts in the South can't begin until next year. (V)

AI as a Political Force

Palantir, co-founded by Peter Thiel (an immigrant and major Republican donor), is a software company that sucks up vast quantities of data from disparate sources, correlates them, and provides data integration and analysis software for governments, the military, and corporations. The ACLU has said Palantir's AI can be used for predictive policing, possibly to identify (and arrest?) future criminals before they commit any crimes. Big Brother would approve. Thiel is chairman of the company and Alex Karp is CEO.

In an interview with CNBC, Karp said the quiet part out loud: "This technology disrupts humanities-trained—largely Democratic—voters, and makes their economic power less. And increases the economic power of vocationally trained, working-class, often male, working-class voters." In other words, a goal of AI is to take away the jobs of Democrats and help Republicans.

Sometimes the best-laid plans of rodents and humans don't quite work out as planned. Here are a few notes about Karp and Thiel's plans to use AI to transfer power from Democrats to Republicans. First, there are plenty of men in desk jobs pushing paper around. It is not clear that AI-induced disruption will necessarily fall more heavily on women than on men. It might be gender neutral.

Second, even if all the editors at PBS are women and they lose their good-paying jobs and have to become nurses' aides to survive, that doesn't mean they will lose their vote. Some of them who were independents might come to believe that Big Tech and the Republican billionaires who run the companies are the problem and vote accordingly.

Third, if Democrats see this happening, they may double down on pumping money into sectors where women do well, such as elementary education, child care, health care, and social services. The Barnard-educated female editors laid off at PBS may come to clearly understand who is trying to help them and who is not.

Fourth, AI may help automation kill "manly" jobs as well as "intellectual female" jobs. In China and Japan, AI has helped to create dark factories, which have (almost) no lights on because there are no humans working there, just robots. China has hundreds of dark factories. Here is a link to a video about the dark factories. Donald Trump thinks all China can do is make cheap T-shirts. This video shows the real China. It is very impressive.

AI that eliminates factory jobs hits the Republican base very hard. Also appearing in the world of manufacturing are 3-D printers, which can replace machinists. AI is also being used in mining and logging, industries with many men and few women. Another industry where AI will hit men harder than women is transportation, with self-driving taxis, trucks, buses, trains, trams, subways, boats, and planes eliminating the need for human drivers, most of whom are men.

Probably the most "manly" job of all—being a grunt in the Army—is starting to be replaced by drone programmers and operators, jobs women can do as well as men. Even the most highly skilled job in the military—piloting a jet fighter—can be done by AI. For example, the X-BAT and the Anduril Fury are fully autonomous fighter jets with no human pilot.

Karp was definitely getting ahead of his skis thinking that the only jobs on the line are those done by highly educated women in an office using a computer. AI may kill off more "manly" jobs than "womanly" jobs because many jobs that women are more likely to do, like teaching, child care and nursing, don't automate well. Also, and related, the economy is more and more focused on services rather than on products. Women tend to play a bigger role in services and men in products, and AI won't change that.

Also, if they are smart, the Democrats could make reining in AI a key part of their platform, so that when jobs are lost, voters will know who was for and who was against some bot taking over their jobs. One way to start would be to blame AI data centers for rising electricity bills, which is an easy sell. In fact, data centers are already becoming a wedge issue.

Another one is to advocate and pass laws assigning legal liability when AI gets something wrong. For example, if a patient is "examined" by an AI doctor at a hospital and the AI doctor makes a mistake and the patient is injured or dies, the law could make it clear that malpractice laws and civil lawsuits most definitely apply to AI doctors, too. In fact, the law could state that any time any AI bot causes injuries to anyone, the organization using the bots has the full legal liability that a human would have under the same circumstances and the organization using the AI can't pass the blame off to the makers of the AI software. This liability will slow the adoption of AI bots as managers will worry about getting sued if the bots make mistakes. If the Democrats stake a claim on "We don't trust AI bots" and the Republicans are "full speed ahead on AI bots," guess who gets the blame when jobs are lost and things go wrong, which is inevitable sometimes. Thanks to reader B.P. in SLC, UT for the tip about Karp. (V)

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