The State of the Union Is... Passable

Because the first annual address to Congress of each presidential term is not called a "State of the Union" address, last night was technically the first SOTU of Trump v2.0. It takes a long time to watch a SOTU and take notes, especially with this president. It takes even more time to write it up. So, we're going to have to give over the whole posting today to this one subject. Sorry about that. Here is the speech, if you haven't already seen it, and want to watch it for some reason:

Here is the transcript published by The New York Times.

And here is a rundown of our many thoughts about the speech:

The Top Line: Over the course of his second term, and in particular in the last few months, Donald Trump has often been erratic, unfocused, and prone to saying impolitic or incomprehensible things. Supporters of the President were surely waiting on pins and needles to see how well he rose to this particular challenge. And those supporters are going to be pleased by what they saw last night. His performance last night could very easily have passed for his first SOTU (i.e., from 2018).

By that, we mean that someone (probably Chief of Staff Susie Wiles) somehow managed to persuade Trump to stay largely on script. He did freestyle every once in a while, particularly when he was really feeling his oats, but we would guess that 90% of what he said on camera last night, maybe 95%, was also in the teleprompter. Most important, there were no bizarro tangents, and no occasions where he made it partway through one thought, and then switched to an unrelated thought and made it partway through that, and then switched to yet another unrelated thought.

There has been much supposition that Trump is developing some level of senility, or that he's sundowning (i.e., he loses mental sharpness in the late afternoon and evening). There was no real indication of any of that last night. We are not exactly sure how to reconcile some of the mentally unfocused performances we've seen from him recently with the relatively disciplined performance last night. Maybe it's easier if you commit to sticking to the teleprompter. Maybe they gave him some meds. Maybe Wiles made sure he was well rested. Maybe he got lucky and had a good day yesterday. Maybe he's not as far gone as he often seems, and he really is performing "the weave," as he calls it, on those occasions where the cheese seems to have slipped off the cracker. We just don't know. Whatever the explanation, we imagine that Wiles and other White House insiders heaved a huge sigh of relief after the speech concluded.

An interesting bonus, for fans of Trump, is that he actually pulled off a few joke lines last night. It was a packed house with a lot of supportive audience members, which is pretty close to ideal circumstances for a performer. Even then, we wouldn't have thought he had it in him, since he's a very humorless man, but whaddya know, he did. Nobody's going to confuse him with Lenny Bruce or Richard Pryor, but that he managed to at least be Shane Gillis- or Dane Cook-level funny surprised the heck out of us.

The Bottom Line: While we think the speech was a short-term win for Trump, we doubt that it was a long-term win, for two reasons. The first is that we doubt it will linger, for lack of a better description. We surveyed several of the newscasts before the speech, and the pundits were nearly all offering some version of the argument that this is Trump's last chance to address the entire nation before the midterm elections in November, and so his last chance to make his case for voting Republican.

We think this is utter nonsense. In part, because there is little chance that, 6 months from now, anyone will remember what Trump said last night. And in part because, as we discuss below, he made a lot of patently ridiculous claims about how well he's doing, and how well the economy's doing, and yadda, yadda, yadda. If, on November 1, a voter who is concerned about kitchen-table issues buys a carton of eggs for $7, we cannot imagine that voter saying to herself, "You know, these prices still seem high, but way back in February, Trump said inflation was under control, so I guess I'm just going to ignore my grocery bill and put my faith in that."

The other reason that we doubt this will be a long-term win for Trump is that we remember, just 2 years ago, writing about a different president who entered the State of the Union amid a sea of concerns about his mental state and his ongoing fitness to do his job. And, as we noted back then (quite correctly, we still think), he did great and put his supporters' minds at ease. Of course, we all know how THAT story eventually turned out.

Marathon Man: If you look at the list of longest State of the Union addresses, nearly all of the Top 10 entries are taken by two men, Bill Clinton and Donald Trump. In part, that is because there is something of a presentist bias to the list—a SOTU has more applause and audience stunts and other extracurriculars these days than SOTUs past. But in part, it is because both of those men love the sound of their own voices, and have a propensity toward being windbags. Before last night's speech, it was widely predicted that Trump would set the record for longest SOTU ever, and he did. In fact, he set the record for longest address to Congress of any sort, at 1 hour, 48 minutes. He broke his own record, set last year, by about 7 minutes. Trump also exceeded the length of each of his first-term addresses by at least half an hour.

It is interesting to compare Trump to Barack Obama in this regard. Obama's addresses to Congress tended to check in at right about an hour. We don't know for sure, but we have a strong suspicion that this is a reflection of #44's experience as a college lecturer. You don't have to be in that job for long before you learn that it's pretty hard to keep an audience's attention for more than an hour, and so if you really want them to know something, you better get it in there within that timeframe.

Trump, by contrast, is a showman, but is no college professor. Given that his experience is as an interview subject, and as a reality TV show host, he's rarely had to face a live audience. And so, he presumably has much less experience with reading the room, and knowing when people are beginning to tune you out. Because he's an entertainer, he did try to create something of a climax to the speech, with some of the most dramatic moments (keep reading) and the most soaring language (also keep reading) at the very end of the night. But that doesn't actually do too much good if people have already turned off the TV or shut down the Internet stream. And we imagine that as it got to be 10:00 p.m., 10:30 p.m. ET, a fair number of viewers decided they'd seen enough.

Audience Theater, Trump: Just about every member who brings a guest (or guests) to the SOTU tries to do a little messaging with their choice of whom to bring. But while you can read news stories about whom Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) picked (Claire Lai, Michael Knowles and several others), or how many Epstein victims Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) brought (2), you really wouldn't know much about this from watching the speech itself.

The only person who gets to make a big show of their invitees is, of course, the president. Here is a list of the folks that Trump brought to the show last night:

The U.S. Men's Hockey Team: It wasn't the whole team, just 8 of them (out of 25 overall). We can find no explanation for where the other 17 players were; maybe they had other commitments or maybe they did not want to be used as props. Trump did the usual rah-rah stuff you would expect from any president just days after a high-profile Olympic win. He also announced that goalie Connor Hellebuyck would be awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom. Because, as everyone knows, when the 'Nades, or the Swedes, or the Finns score a goal, the terrorists win. So, thank goodness Hellebuyck was there to defend the crease and, with it, the American way of life. Trump also said that he looked forward to having the U.S. women's team to the White House for a visit, and he did so without any apparent sarcasm. Perhaps someone told him he needed to clean up the mess he made over the weekend?

Soldiers: Trump highlighted six current or past members of the armed forces, namely Coast Guard rescue swimmer Scott Ruskan (accompanied by one of the 165 people he saved during the Texas floods), Sarah Beckstrom (National Guard member killed in Washington, DC), Andrew Wolfe (National Guard member wounded in Washington, DC), Chief Warrant Officer Eric Slover (helicopter pilot injured during the Nicolás Maduro raid), World War II veteran Buddy Taggart and Korean War veteran Royce Williams. As part of the drama of the evening, all but Taggart were decorated last night, live on TV. Ruskan received the Legion of Merit, Wolfe and Slover received the Purple Heart, and Slover and Williams received the Congressional Medal of Honor. The latter two awards came near the very end of the speech, and were key to the "climax" we discuss above.

The Medal of Honor is not a decoration that is given out lightly, and so one might reasonably wonder if Trump greased the skids a bit so he could have his moment(s). It's a little hard to form an opinion on Slover, because the details of the actions for which he was recognized are not fully known. However, we would say Williams is 100% legit. In 1952, he took on 7 Soviet MiGs all by himself, downing 4 and crippling 2 others before returning to his ship. He'd already received the Navy Cross, one step below the MoH, for that action. The upgrade seems well justified.

Alejandra and Enrique Gonzalez: Speaking of Maduro, Enrique Gonzalez was one of Maduro's many political prisoners, and was released after Maduro's fall from power. His niece, Alejandra, is an American. Trump arranged for Uncle Enrique to be flown to Washington, and staged a surprise reunion between the two.

"Issues" Guests: Every president, at least these days, makes sure to invite a few people who embody their pet issues. For Trump, that included Catherine Rayner (got fertility treatments through TrumpRx), Megan Hemhouser (blue-collar mom and waitress who benefits from the new rules governing tips), Sage Blair (involved in a lawsuit in which she claims school officials refused to believe that she'd changed her mind about being trans) and Dalilah Coleman (badly hurt in a car accident involving an undocumented immigrant).

Grieving Relatives: Beckstrom's parents were present to receive their daughter's decoration. Also present were the parents of Iryna Zarutska, the Ukrainian immigrant who was "slaughtered" (Trump's word) by an undocumented immigrant (who, by the way, was not actually an immigrant, and so could not be undocumented).

The Usual Suspects: Trump also recognized several members of his Cabinet, VP J.D. Vance, and some of his well-known supporters who were present, including Michael and Susan Dell, Erika Kirk (described as the widow of "martyr" Charlie) and, of course, First Lady Melania Trump.

Audience Theater, GOP: When it comes to standing and applauding, there's something of an arms race, with each president trying to outdo the total from previous SOTUs. On top of that, there is no president who loves to be applauded more than Trump does. And finally, as we note, he droned on and on and on for longer than any president addressing Congress ever has.

Add it up, and we have no doubt that he got more "applauses" than any president has ever gotten. Usually, someone counts them all up, and puts that information out there. We haven't seen a count, as yet, but wouldn't be surprised if the total approached 100. In addition, the applause was also supplemented with regular chants of "USA! USA! USA!" We honestly don't recall that at past presidential addresses, even at past Trump addresses. Certainly it was very frequent and VERY loud during last night's address. And, we must say, it made us a little uneasy. This is, in the end, a discussion about things that will affect people's lives, and their families, and their futures. It's not a sporting event.

Oh, and you didn't ask, but we'll tell you nonetheless that the two pre-Trump presidents who loved applause the most were probably Lyndon B. Johnson (no surprise) and George H.W. Bush (really!).

Audience Theater, the Democrats: At the start of the speech, Rep. Al Green (D-TX), who is charismatic and is popular with his constituents, but who is also known as a bit of a "show horse," was holding a sign that said "Black People Aren't Apes." It wasn't clear from the broadcast if he did anything besides refuse to put the sign away, but in any event, he was ejected a couple of minutes into the address.

Thereafter, the remaining Democrats largely honored the suggestion/request from House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) to remain quiet and civil, and not to respond to any goading from Trump. Maybe that was good advice, maybe it wasn't (keep reading). There was at least one member who managed to get her message across without uttering a sound. That would be Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI):

The cameras—at least, the ones providing the feed broadcast by ABC—must have lingered on that shot for 20, maybe 25 seconds. So long, we couldn't believe they weren't cutting away.

Note that we do not want to imply that Tlaib remained silent all night. She, and Rep. Ilhan Omar (DFL-MN), definitely yelled at Trump at least once or twice. There were probably 6-8 yelling moments altogether, though it was hard to be sure who they were coming from, because the yellers largely were not shown on camera.

Many of the other Democratic women, as has become somewhat customary, did as Tlaib did, and wore white (either jackets, or blouses, or suits). This is a reference to the women's suffrage movement. Meanwhile, it's hard to get an exact count, but around a dozen Democratic senators and around 50 Democratic representatives boycotted the speech entirely, and attended alternate events. Hopefully, for their sake, it was something more fun than listening to Trump speak for 2 hours. Like, you know, watching paint dry, or walking on broken glass, or listening to the collected works of Billy Ray Cyrus.

The Biden Maneuver: Do you remember the time, during Joe Biden's SOTU, when he fired his warp engines for just a split second, so he briefly appeared to be in two places at once? No, wait, that's the Picard Maneuver. The Biden Maneuver was when he asked the audience if they supported Sen. Rick Scott's (R-FL) then-recent proposal to sundown Medicare and Social Security. When none of the Republicans indicated their support, Biden said, in so many words, "Great! Then we're all in agreement that Social Security and Medicare are off the table." #46 got some kudos, including from us, for his pretty slick maneuvering.

It would seem someone in the White House (surely not Trump himself) has done some studying of past SOTUs, because Trump executed a near identical maneuver last night. He decreed:

One of the great things about the State of the Union is how it gives Americans the chance to see clearly what their representatives really believe. So tonight I'm inviting every legislator to join with my administration in reaffirming a fundamental principle. If you agree with this statement, then stand up and show your support. The first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens. Not illegal aliens.

Naturally, none of the Democrats were willing to stand up and imply support for Trump's border policies (i.e., ICE), and he practically screeched: "Isn't that a shame? You should be ashamed of yourself, not standing up. You should be ashamed of yourself."

Trump returned to the exact same trick again, later in the speech, because apparently nobody told him that you should never perform the same trick for the same audience twice. He launched into a harangue about how "no state can be allowed to rip children from their parents' arms and transition them to a new gender against the parents' will," and asked everyone who agreed with him to stand up. The Democrats declined, of course, because they are not going to endorse that dishonest framing of how things work. Trump then lamented: "Look, nobody stands up. These people are crazy, I'm telling you. They're crazy. Amazing. Terrible. Boy, oh boy. We're lucky we have a country. With people like this—Democrats are destroying our country, but we've stopped it just in the nick of time, didn't we, huh?"

Trump Gon' Trump, Part I: When Biden pulled off his famous rope-a-dope, as they called it back then, he couched it in gentle and humorous terms. Make no mistake, he was raising a very serious point. But he was doing so in as diplomatic and non-aggressive a manner as he could. That is the key difference between the Biden Maneuver and the Trump Maneuver—Trump was out for blood, and he leaned into the mean and into the nasty. That is just who he is, and "mean and nasty" was most certainly an oft-recurring motif of the speech.

In addition to the moments we have already outlined, at various times he insisted that Democrats are bad people who like to hurt hard-working Americans by raising taxes, and also that they like to see the U.S. GDP drop. Trump slurred the "Green New Scam" and the "Unaffordable Care Act," and complained about the "Democrat shutdown." He blamed the blue team for 11,888 murders and called affordability a "dirty, rotten lie." Trump also singled out Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), and said he was shocked that she did not stand and applaud when he called for an end to stock trading by sitting members of Congress. The implication, of course, is that she gained her (considerable) wealth corruptly. Oh, and by the way, the no-stock-trading legislation that Trump is flogging would not apply to presidents.

In addition to attacking Democrats, it wouldn't be a Trump SOTU if he did not also attack immigrants. In fact, it was allegedly "immigrants" who committed the 11,888 murders that are somehow also the Democrats' fault. Trump got very specific in, yet again, attacking Somali-Americans in Minnesota, whom he called "Somali pirates." He said that if the U.S. could just eliminate all the fraud being committed by "people like them," then there would be a balanced budget. That's some very interesting math. During this portion (and indeed, during the entire speech), Trump did not mention Minneapolis, ICE, Alex Pretti, or Renee Good. Hm. Hard to know why he would skip those parts of the story.

Incidentally, if you were to click on the above link to our writeup of Biden's last SOTU, you would see that we described that maybe-he's-not-losing-it speech as "strong." We describe this maybe-he's-not-losing-it speech as "adequate." The difference in tone is the main reason. Trump's followers will be very pleased with what they saw, but beyond that? You're not going to attract very many additional flies to your party's banner with all that vinegar.

Trump Gon' Trump, Part II: Every president uses the SOTU to take a few victory laps, of course. But Trump takes that to extremes, with grandiose claims about his accomplishments, backed up with lies upon lies upon lies. He claimed that, in him, Americans "finally have a president who puts America first," that we are now in a "Golden Age of America" and that "we're winning so much that we really don't know what to do about it." In fact, he advised that "people" have told him that there is more winning going on right now than they are able to handle. Strange that "people" were not invited to the SOTU to stand up and be recognized.

Of course, it's not enough for Trump to merely indulge in gross exaggerations; he also has to throw in some outright falsehoods. For example, he claimed that "In the past nine months, zero illegal aliens have been admitted to the United States." He said that crime has been all-but-eradicated in Washington, DC. He said that gas is down to less than $2.30 a gallon in most states. He said, yet again, that he has cut drug prices by 300% or 400% or 500%.

We could easily extend this part of the discussion to 1,000 words or more, but what's the point? Anyone who is not a Trump cultist knows that nearly any "fact" that emanates from his mouth is misleading, exaggerated, or outright false. If you really want a fisking, take your pick from among NPR, The Guardian, CNN, Al Jazeera, NBC News, ABC News, The New York Times or Politifact.

Trump Gon' Trump, Part III: Since Joe Biden has already made several appearances, how about one more? We don't know if he came up with this, or one of his speechwriters did, but the bit about how with Rudy Giuliani, every sentence has three parts—noun, verb, and 9/11—was one of the great lines in American political history. With Trump, it's that the three parts of every sentence are noun, verb and the 2020 election was stolen. He just CAN. NOT. LET. IT. GO.

It is clear that everyone around Trump knows that re-litigating that election is a political loser, and so they have tried mightily to get him to put a sock in it. And on a night where he was being disciplined and largely staying on script, the put-a-sock-in-it crowd was pretty successful. But not entirely, because he simply had to sneak a few references in. For example, he talked about the "weird things" that happened during the 2020 election, and he also said that what he's serving now is really his third term. At this point, one has to assume that "I really won the 2020 election" will be carved on his headstone.

Trump Gon' Trump, Part IV: Clearly, there was and is a tension between what Trump wants to say, and what his advisors want him to say. And, as we note several times above, the advisors largely won that battle last night. Largely, but not entirely. This dynamic was also on display when it came to the tariffs and the Supreme Court. Four of the nine justices were present last night, among them three who voted to strike down the tariffs—Chief Justice John Roberts and Associate Justices Elena Kagan and Amy Coney Barrett (the fourth justice in attendance was Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh).

It undoubtedly would have made Trump very happy to just spend a half an hour, or more, reading those three (especially the "traitorous" Barrett) the riot act. However, such behavior would undoubtedly have made his handlers very sad. So, he only indulged in a couple of minutes of criticism of SCOTUS, lamenting that they decided, for some reason, that they wanted to stop him from "saving our country." The Justices sat stone-faced during this entire portion, with John Roberts in particular looking like he had suddenly transformed into a marble bust.

New Policy?: Usually, the president uses the SOTU to lay out their policy goals for the year. This SOTU was remarkably short on that, however. Exactly how short is hard to say, however, because it's often unclear if Trump is talking about a new policy or not. For example, after lambasting Obamacare, Trump bragged about his replacement, the Great Health Care Plan. We can't exactly tell if that's a new proposal, or just new branding for an existing proposal. It seems to be the latter—a new name for "health savings accounts plus TrumpRx"—but it's a little fuzzy.

Even when Trump DID announce new policy initiatives, they were things that seem like they will forever be vaporware. For example, he said that for any American worker who does not have a 401(k) plan, the government will create one, and will match employee contributions up to $1,000 a year. That's a LOT of money, and there was no indication of where it's going to come from. Certainly not tariff revenue, that's for sure.

The upshot is that we very much doubt there will be any meaningful law, policy, initiative or other government action that will be in place by, say, 2027 where we can say that last night's speech was the first time we ever heard about that idea.

Foreign Policy: Foreign policy was the last major subject that Trump took up, and he focused on two nations. The first was Venezuela, and patting himself (and Pete Hegseth) on the back for what a great job they did there. The other was Iran.

Before the SOTU, nobody seemed to have much idea as to why the U.S. is on the cusp of attacking Iran, what that attack would look like, or what the ultimate goal would be. Now that the SOTU is in the books, we still don't have any idea. That part was a pretty big mess, starting with the fact that within the space of 30 seconds Trump declared that "the United States military obliterated Iran's nuclear weapons program" and then said the U.S. might have to invade Iran to halt its nuclear weapons program. Which is it?

Since this was late in the speech, and since Trump loathes Iran, this was where he was particularly leaning in to the freestyling. So, that's part of why it was a mess. But we think the bigger part is that the administration has a goal in mind (hit those dirty Muslim terrorist Iranians hard), but no particular vision beyond that. In the end, if you can't outline your thinking properly for the SOTU, when CAN you do so?

There was one country noticeably absent from the foreign policy section, namely Ukraine. Yesterday was the 4-year anniversary of the invasion that started the whole thing, so it seems like it might have merited a mention. Yesterday was also exactly 400 days since the day that Trump promised he would end the war (namely January 20, 2025—the first day of his term). We're just throwing things out here, but the fact that "400" is rather larger than "1" just MIGHT be why Ukraine didn't come up in the speech.

Paging Jack Kennedy?: As we note above, after the two Medals of Honor had been handed out, the SOTU ended on what was obviously supposed to be a poetic note. Here are the last two paragraphs, other than the concluding and obligatory "God Bless America" stuff:

There is no challenge Americans cannot overcome, no frontier too vast for us to conquer, no dream too bold for us to chase, no horizon too distant for us to claim. For our destiny is written by the hand of providence, and these first 250 years were just the beginning. From the rugged border towns of Texas to the heartland villages of Michigan, from the sun-kissed shores of Florida to the endless fields of the Dakotas, and from the historic streets of Philadelphia to right here in our nation's capital, Washington, D.C., the golden age of America is upon us.

The revolution that began in 1776 has not ended. It still continues, because the flame of liberty and independence still burns in the heart of every American patriot. And our future will be bigger, better, brighter, bolder and more glorious than ever before.

Whoever wrote this for Trump should be fired immediately. In fact, because they used what might be the most hackneyed term in the English language—sun-kissed—they should probably be shot. John F. Kennedy could pull this kind of passage off. Ronald Reagan, too, and Barack Obama. Maybe Bill Clinton, on a good day. But not Richard Nixon, not Jerry Ford, probably not Jimmy Carter, not either of the Georges Bush, not Biden and definitely not Trump. When The Donald tries it, it lands with a thud, like Jason Aldean trying to sing opera. He needs a meat-and-potatoes ending, not a foie gras and haricots verts ending.

The Democratic Response: The last proper SOTU response was from Sen. Katie Britt (R-AL). Her weird talking-to-you-from-my-kitchen performance did not go over well, to say the least. So, last night's respondent, Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA), went for something more formal, a conference room with flags and an audience. The room in question happens to be in Colonial Williamsburg. We are not sure what the message of that is. Maybe it's "the blue team are the true heirs of the legacy of George Washington." Or maybe it's "come to Virginia and give us some of your tourist dollars." Maybe both.

If you would like to see the Governor's 13-minute speech, here it is:

On the whole, we would say it was OK-to-good. A 6 on a scale of 1 to 10. Which, by the standards of these SOTU responses, is actually a victory. Normally they are 1s and 2s. Think Britt, or Bobby Jindal, or Marco "Water Bottle" Rubio.

If we wanted to sum up Spanberger's content, we would say it was 70/20/10. The majority, the 70%, was basically Spanberger's stump speech, which is heavily focused on kitchen-table issues. The implied message is "This is what Democrats will run on, and what Democrats should run on, in 2026." The 20%, meanwhile, was borrowed from St. Ronnie of Reagan. Specifically, Reagan's core message from both of his presidential campaigns: "Are you better off than you were in 2024? If yes, then vote [THE OPPOSITION PARTY]. If no, then vote [MY PARTY]." And finally, the 10% was a variant of Trump circa September 2024. Specifically: "Trump and the Republicans are for they/them (e.g., rich people who don't suffer consequences for their misdeeds) and the Democrats are for you."

We would have liked to say something about the Spanish language response, but we're not fluent, and we could not find a translation, at least not last night. And even if we could, we're not sure if we can properly evaluate the speech without being able to speak the language and assess the delivery. If readers who are fluent would like to weigh in, we'd be happy to hear from them at comments@electoral-vote.com. The video is here. To get you off to a good start, we'll tell you that when he says "Soy Senador Alex Padilla" at the outset, that means "I am Senator Alex Padilla."

And there you have it. We always think we'll be able to deal with these things in a couple of thousand words and then, before you know it, we're north of 6,000. Hopefully it was interesting, and at least one of our joke lines landed (as it would be very embarrassing to be outdone by Trump on that front). And if not, well, there's simply no question that this is THE political news story of the week. Even if the only thing more painful than watching and writing up an SOTU is watching and writing up a party convention, particularly if that convention features performances from the likes of Lee Greenwood and Kid Rock.

As is always the case, we wrote this without looking at anyone else's assessment of the speech, so that we would not be influenced by their takes. Maybe, compared to everyone else, we're way out in left field. Probably not, but it's at least possible. Anyhow, tomorrow or Friday, we will undoubtedly have a rundown of some of the responses from other commenters. (Z)

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