Blanche's Senate Confirmation Is No Done Deal

To be the next Attorney General of the United States, Donald Trump has nominated his former personal lawyer, Todd Blanche, who will do whatever Trump asks without even bothering to consider whether it is legal or not. His confirmation by the Senate could be quite a battle as a number of Republican senators are furious about Blanche setting up the $1.776 billion slush fund for cop beaters and Trump cronies. Blanche later said the fund was dead, but after that Trump said it was alive. Will the senators believe anything Blanche has to say? Probably none of them will, but that doesn't matter. What matters is whether four or five of them vote to reject the nomination.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), who was forced to retire by Trump, is against the slush fund and is a possible vote against confirmation. Sen. John Curtis (R-UT) said: "We have lots of must-pass legislation. We have now the nomination of Todd Blanche that we can hold up if we feel like he's not keeping up with his promise." Of course, suppose Blanche keeps his promise until after the confirmation vote? Then what will Curtis do? Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), who is a Republican loyalist who begged for Trump's endorsement and didn't get it, has some qualms about Blanche, citing his conflicts of interest. But qualms are not the same as having a spine. On Tuesday, Cornyn again called the slush fund a "terrible idea," but what will he do if Blanche tells the Senate that the fund is dead and the day after Blanche is confirmed, he brings it back from the dead? Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) said she "would like to think" the slush fund is really dead.

Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) is concerned. She is probably a hard no on Blanche because voting for him—especially if she is the 51st vote—would end all the discussion in Maine about Graham Platner being a substandard boyfriend and make the entire election about her vote.

At this stage, the senators are releasing all these trial balloons to see how the public reacts. If it turns out that public opinion is against Blanche, this close to an election, they may turn up the volume a bit until Blanche "voluntarily" removes his name from consideration.

But what if Trump doesn't take the "hint" and says it's Blanche or bust? In the 53-47 Senate, Republicans can afford to lose three votes since J.D. Vance is available to break ties. There is a real chance that Thune will decide to allow Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME), Jon Husted (R-OH), and Dan Sullivan (R-AK) to vote against confirmation because it is politically useful to their reelection efforts. That means that the Gang of Four on the way out, Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-LA), John Cornyn (R-TX), Mitch McConnell (R-KY), and Thom Tillis (R-NC) will be instructed to support Todd against their better judgement and capitulate again, just as they did on the $1.776 billion slush fund. Maybe they looked for their misplaced spines and couldn't find them. This session of the Senate is not going to result in a new edition of Profiles in Courage. (V)

ICE Will Attack New York City Next

The ICE showdown in Minneapolis was just the warmup. Now comes the main round. Border Czar Tom Homan has announced that the biggest ICE deployment ever will soon happen in New York City. It could be quite a faceoff.

New Yorkers are famously confrontational and will likely be backed by both Mayor Zohran Mandami (D-New York City) and Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY), who just signed a bill banning law enforcement officers from wearing masks and banning local law enforcement from engaging in immigration enforcement. If an ICE agent shows up in a mask, he or she is violating state law and conceivably could be arrested for that. Homan warned Hochul not to sign the bill but she didn't budge and signed it anyway. It could get tense, at the very least. Virginia, New Jersey, and California have similar laws.

New York City has no shortage of reporters or media outlets, so a battle royal there pitting the mayor, the governor, and the people against ICE will get massive worldwide publicity. If some ICE agent gets trigger happy and shoots a protester, that will become a major incident and could affect the midterms, especially if the shootee is a pretty young unarmed woman just exercising her constitutional rights. Homan is on the spot here because Trump wants a show of maximum force to distract everyone from Epstein, Iran, and the Blanche nomination. Homan is not by nature a hothead who seeks out fights, but if Trump pushes him hard to start a big fight at risk of losing his job, he might do it, with unpredictable consequences. (V)

Trump Orders Thune to Fire Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough

Donald Trump desperately wants to pass the "SAVE America Act," which would make it much harder for some people to vote. Just as one example, women whose current name does not match the name on their birth certificate would have to jump through hoops to be able to vote. Many would fail and be disenfranchised. Trump sees this as a feature, not a bug.

To be specific, the President wants to the Senate to incorporate the text of the Act into the reconciliation bill Congress is now considering. The problem is that Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough has ruled that the Act is not about the budget, a requirement for all parts of reconciliation bills. Trump's solution to this is simple. He ordered Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) to fire MacDonough. Thune is not going to do that, for three reasons.

First, Thune is an institutionalist and cares about the Senate. MacDonough is a Senate institution herself, takes her work very seriously, and is widely respected as fair by all the senators. Replacing her with some flunky because that is what Trump wants seriously impinges on the power of the Senate. Thune does not want to concede any more legislative power to the Executive Branch than it already has.

Second, if MacDonough is replaced and the text is inserted into the bill, Democrats will introduce an amendment to strip it. Republicans don't want to have a recorded vote on that since it could be seen as a strike at married women who use their husband's name. Such a new law would hit hard at conservative stay-at-home moms in the South and Midwest, and much less at liberal women in the Northeast and West who use their birth name. One study shows that 90% of conservative married Republican women changed their name upon getting married compared to 66% of liberal Democratic women. Thune can see the downsides of this and wants no part of it.

Third, if Thune replaces MacDonough with a flunky, the next Democratic majority leader will replace Thune's flunky with his or her own. Then, all of a sudden reconciliation bills will be able to deal with anything. Democrats could then put their entire program into a giant reconciliation bill and pass it by a simple majority vote. This would be a backdoor way to abolish the filibuster without even taking a vote on it. Thune certainly understands this and will never back down on this. Trump doesn't give a hoot about what a Democratic Congress might do in 2027 (except for impeaching him), or in 2029, but Thune sure does.

In practice, the SAVE America Act is dead for the time being. (V)

Inflation Hit 4.2% in May

Inflation jumped to 4.2% in May, the first time it has passed the 4% mark in 3 years. Here is a graph of inflation since 2021:

Note that while overall inflation is 4.2%, if food and energy is removed, then it is only 2.9%. Put in other terms, food and energy are going up faster than everything else. Unfortunately for the Republicans, the things people notice most are food and energy (especially gasoline and electricity) and they are leading the charge upward. And both of these are more likely to get worse than better shortly (see below). Here is a chart showing some specific price increases since Jan. 2025. Feel free to call this the "Trump Bump":

An immediate consequence of the inflation report released yesterday is that the Fed is very unlikely to cut interest rates now. That would stoke even more inflation. Donald Trump thought that by appointing Kevin Warsh as Fed chairman, he would get the lower interest rates he so desires (because it is good for the real estate business). Getting a majority of the Fed Board to cut rates now is probably not going to happen. In fact, a rate increase is even possible now, especially if inflation hits 5%. Warsh may personally want to cut rates as a reward for his getting the job, but another faction, led by former chairman Jerome Powell, is not going to support that. Not getting a rate cut will drive Trump nuts—especially if Warsh votes for an increase, which is still a possibility, despite what he has said in the past.

While voters may not understand macroeconomics, it is not hard for Democrats to explain to the voters that: (1) prices are sky high and still rising and (2) it is fault of Donald Trump's trade war and Iran War and the fault of the Republicans in Congress who are refusing to stop him. There isn't a good answer a Republican House candidate can give to this. Blame it on Joe Biden? By November, Trump will have been in office almost 2 years. Good luck with that.

Yesterday, Trump said something that he may come to regret. He said: "I love the inflation." He went on to talk about Iran, but a tightly edited clip of him just saying "I love the inflation" could just maybe find its way into Democratic ads in the fall, followed by some ordinary American saying, "Well, I don't like inflation at all. I can't afford it." (V)

Will the Screwworm Eat the Republicans?

The new world screwworm (cochliomyia hominivorax) isn't a worm at all. It is a fly, not so different from the common housefly, really. It is called a screwworm because its larvae look like screws. Here an adult screwworm poses for a portrait:

Screwworms are common in Mexico but they are marching (all right, flying) north and have now shown up in Texas. The female flies have the habit of laying their eggs in the wounds of domestic cattle. When the eggs become larvae, they dig deeper and feast on the living flesh below. Left untreated, the larvae can kill a cow. Maybe you think of this as David vs. Goliath, but Texas cattle ranchers don't think like this at all.

If the infestation spreads, cattle ranchers may be forced to kill off large parts of their herds, which will raise beef prices. Voters will notice this. Maybe they will blame Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins, but probably, outside of agricultural circles, most people have never heard of her. They will blame Donald Trump.

The traditional way to treat a screwworm infestation is to raise millions of screwworms in a factory setting and then to expose the files to a carefully calibrated dose of radiation to render them sterile. A female screwworm mates only once in her life, and if her boyfriend is a dud, no baby screwworms. By dropping millions of sterile males over an infected area from airplanes, the infestation can be controlled. But this requires acting fast and staying ahead of the spread.

Where, pray tell, can you get sterile screwworms? Amazon doesn't carry them and neither does Walmart. It turns out there is one screwworm factory in all of North America and it has x-ray machines to zap the boys. It is in Panama and can produce 100 million units per week. Rollins said she needs 400-500 million per week. A new facility in Mexico will add another 100 million per week to the production capacity, but Mexico needs them as well and might use its production domestically. A facility under construction in Texas is expected to be up and flying by November 2027. Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) is doing his best to get that one opened by May 2027, but that may or may not succeed. After all, the owners of the facility are already highly motivated to start production as fast as they can, since finding customers won't be a problem. The Texas facility hopes to produce 300 million products per week. If the infestation is still spreading by then, the 100 million from Panama and the 300 million from Texas may not be enough.

Texas Commissioner of Agriculture Sid Miller said: "The whole state will be infested in probably 6 months." Miller just lost his reelection primary to Republican challenger Nate Sheets, who wants to try a new (and unproven) bait-and-insecticide technique. But having all hamburgers come with a side of insecticide may not please the MAHA moms who are already unhappy with the administration over Roundup (glyphosate).

No one is optimistic this problem will vanish quickly. Cooper Little, director of the Independent Cattlemen's Association of Texas, said: "So we're going to look at a lower tonnage of beef and higher input costs. Which can keep beef prices on that sharp upward trajectory." GOP strategist Barrett Marson said: "Americans run on beef. We notice the price of steaks and ground beef every time we go to the grocery store."

One thing the administration can do in the short run is import more beef from Argentina and other countries that have excess production, or which decide to prioritize exports over domestic sales. But Texas cattle ranchers are not likely to be happy with such an approach and could make their feelings known in November. (V)

Poll: Partisanship Trumps Everything

Some Democrats are crying in their beer white wine about Maine Senate candidate Graham Platner because he was not the ideal boyfriend in the past. Other candidates also have problems of various kinds. Democrats are very sensitive to flaws in candidates, whereas Republicans are not. Think: Mehmet Oz, Ken Paxton, and Herschel Walker. They just look at the name, see the (R) after it, and know how to vote.

A new survey shows that the controversies swirling around Platner and Paxton aside, an overwhelming majority of voters understand that you often have to go with the lesser of two evils, and that nearly always means voting for your party's candidate, however flawed. If that holds, it will have effects in Maine and Texas. Here are the results of the question asking if you often have to pick the lesser of two evils:

Republicans see the problem more acutely than Democrats, possibly because they tend to nominate more seriously flawed candidates than the Democrats. Another question got more specific. Democrats were asked if they support "Democrat Graham Platner, who had a chest tattoo associated with Nazi Germany" and 55% said yes, 17% said no, and 29% were uncertain. Republicans were asked if they support "Republican Ken Paxton of Texas, who was indicted for securities fraud" and 57% said yes, 17% said no, and 26% were uncertain. So basically, a majority of partisans stick with their own tribe. No matter how flawed their candidate is, he or she is better than the other one.

A lot hinges on how true independents vote. Many people who are registered as independent, or who decline to state, lean strongly to one side or the other. Nevertheless, there are a small number of true independents and their votes can be decisive in close races. How they vote can depend on many factors including the economy, candidate quality and their opinion of the sitting president. (V)

What Hath Redistricting Wrought?

The redistricting follies are largely over now. Who won? Kyle Kondik at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics crunched the numbers and come up with an answer.

In the end, 10 states changed their maps this year. Collectively the new maps affect nearly 42% of the House seats. Not every district in all 10 states was redrawn, however. Kondik produced a table showing the number of districts in each rough PVI bracket in 2024 and now. Here it is:

The top three rows are where Donald Trump got at least 55% of the vote in 2024. There were 187 such safe red districts in 2024. There are still 187 in total, but not quite as red because Republicans pulled red precincts out of these deep-red districts to flip previously blue districts.

In the bottom three rows, there were 163 more-or-less safe blue seats. Now there are 160 of them.

The middle three rows (in purple above) are the most competitive. There were 85 competitive districts before and now there are only 70. This is because the gerrymanderers on both sides tried to take swing districts and make them more partisan. The number of very closely balanced districts, where Trump got between 49% and 51% of the vote in 2024, has dropped from 26 to 21. What increased was the number of D+5-10 and R+5-10 districts as the gerrymanderers tried to construct reasonably safe (but not totally safe) districts.

Overall, there are now 14 more districts where Trump got 55% of the vote or more and only one more district where Trump got 45% or less. This is where the Republicans will pick up net seats. Kondik predicts that the Republicans will net about 5-9 seats as a result of the shenanigans. (V)

Poll: Democrats Are Fine with Eliminating Black Districts to Get More House Seats

One issue that is about to crop up, and that will come up big-time in 2027, is whether blue states where the Democrats have the trifecta should try for the maximum number of House seats (maybe even all of them), even if that means getting rid of majority-minority districts. It's a hot issue. Politico sponsored a poll on this, and asked voters who voted for Kamala Harris in 2024 how they felt. The results were interesting, but not in the way Politico was expecting.

Harris voters were asked to chose between two courses of action:

1. Democrats should create as many Democratic seats as possible, even if it means reducing the voting power of Black voters and other racial and ethnic minorities.
   
   
2. It's important to protect the voting power of Black voters and other racial and ethnic minorities by creating majority-minority districts, even if it means not drawing as many Democratic seats.

With these propositions, 26% of Harris voters went for #1, 54% went for #2, and 20% didn't know.

Then the pollsters rephrased the statements as follows:

1. The Democrats should counter Republican efforts by drawing their own maps that create more Democratic seats, even if it means reducing the number of majority-minority districts.
   
   
2. Democrats should keep the number of majority-minority districts, even if it means limiting the number of Democratic seats they can create

Now #1 got 45%, #2 got 32%, and 23% didn't know. These two different questions shows two things. First, many Democrats are probably not even aware of what the Republicans are doing and, in the abstract, they favor keeping majority-minority districts. After all, why not? But when they are made aware of why this is even an issue, all of a sudden their opinion changes and they want to fight back.

Second—and this is something we have known for a long time and often mentioned—the exact wording of a question in polls matters a lot. Here are four questions that are likely to get different answers when asked of Texas voters:

1. Will you vote for James Talarico or Ken Paxton for the Senate?
2. Will you vote for Ken Paxton or James Talarico for the Senate?
3. Will you vote for Democrat James Talarico or Republican Ken Paxton for the Senate?
4. Will you vote for Republican Ken Paxton or Democrat James Talarico for the Senate?

It shouldn't matter, but long experience shows that it does. How a question is phrased often has a major impact on the results of the survey. Pollsters know this and try to deal with it as best they can. Rotating the names so half the people get one ordering and the others get a different ordering is common.

Democratic politicians already understand the problem but the voters are lagging behind. Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D), a Black woman who represents a D+33 district covering part of Los Angeles and Culver City, said: "This is madness, and all this is doing is unraveling democracy." Then she added: "It's existential at this point, and this is a larger battle that we're fighting for." Basically, she understands that having her district, which is 54% Latino and 22% Black, carved up is necessary for the greater good of the party and the country. This doesn't necessarily mean she is out of a job, but she might have to run in a majority-white district against one or more white candidates next time.

When broken down by ethnicity, pluralities of Democratic voters of color agree that more blue seats is top priority. This holds for Black voters (48%), Latinos (45%), and Asian Americans (48%). Oddly enough, among white voters, only 39% are willing to carve up majority-minority districts to get more House seats. Nevertheless, while there are pluralities for maximizing the number of seats, there are also plenty of Democrats who don't want to go down that road. It is not going to be easy. (V)

New Republican Sworn in as House Member

When Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-CA) died suddenly in January, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) followed in the footsteps of Govs Greg Abbott (R-TX) and Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and scheduled the special election almost as far in the future as state law allowed. The date for the special election was Tuesday, June 2. California Assemblyman James Gallagher won 62% of the vote and was elected outright. He was officially sworn in yesterday.

The House is now 219R, 212D with four vacancies. This increases the margin Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has. If three Republicans vote with the Democrats on something the vote will be 216-215 and the bill or resolution will pass. With several important bills coming up, this extra margin could come in handy. That said, that requires every Republican to be present, and Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ) isn't showing up to work these days. If he continues to play hooky, then Johnson is down to only two defections before a bill fails. (V)

Navy Admiral Fired by Hegseth Advances to Runoff in South Carolina

There is one interesting House race we didn't include yesterday, because the election item was already too long. SC-01 is the open seat that Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) gave up in her futile quest to become governor. She should have known better since Trump doesn't like her. Anyway, she left behind an open R+6 seat that includes parts of Charleston, the low country, and Hilton Head Island, along the coast.

On the Republican side, Charleston County Councilor Jenny Costa Honeycutt narrowly came out ahead of state Rep. Mark Smith, 22% to 18%. However, 22% is not 50.01%, so they will have a runoff on June 23.

The Democratic side is more interesting, though. Nancy Lacore served in the Navy for 35 years, starting as a helicopter pilot and ending as a vice admiral (three stars). Last year, Secretary of (still) Defense Pete Hegseth fired her because he doesn't believe women can be warriors, even though she held senior leadership positions in Afghanistan and Djibouti. Rather than go home and become a potted plant, she decided to run for Mace's seat as a Democrat. She immediately was supported by veterans' groups and EMILY's list. On Tuesday, she got 37% of the vote and advanced to the June 23 runoff, against lawyer Mac Deford, who got 29%

Could Lacore be elected? The odds are against it, but she at least has a decent chance to be the Democratic nominee. Still, in a big enough blue wave, a three-star admiral in a state full of veterans might be able to beat whichever local politician gets the GOP nomination. (V)

Never Forget: And Now, the Rest of the Story

Today, we hear from reader A.H. in Newberg, OR:

I wasn't going to submit anything for this series, but after reading several stories I have changed my mind.

My father landed at Cherbourg France, D+about 90 days, and survived around 200 continuous days in combat before shaking hands with the Russians near Torgau, Germany. But this story isn't about him. This is about Roy. My father and Roy and 30 or 40 other men in our community were all members of the local American Legion post. For those who aren't aware, the American Legion is a federally chartered organization for veterans. For me, growing up, Roy was our family dentist. I went to school with his son Russ. We shot hoops in Roy's and Russ' driveway and I watched Steve Allen's Tonight Show in their family room. When Roy built a new home, my father built the cabinets for it. (Roy's wife Kim was a petite lady, so her kitchen cabinets were about three inches lower than any other cabinets my father built.)

Russ and I both went to Oregon State University. After college, I lost track of him for a while; I did know he went to school in British Columbia, became a dentist like his father. Because his dental schooling was funded by the Canadian government, he had to serve as a dentist in rural BC for several years. He married Sylvia while residing among the Canucks. Eventually, Russ moved back down to Oregon and opened a practice in Corvallis, about 60 miles and a little over an hour's drive away.

A couple of years ago, Russ missed a high school class gathering. He let several of us know beforehand that he wouldn't be there. He had a long-planned trip that he couldn't reschedule. Russ was going to Tinian. Tinian is not a big travel destination, and not on every airline's list of destinations. It usually requires about three flight changes and over 30 hours to get there. But that was where Roy had been stationed, and that was where Russ was going to go.

Russ and I have reconnected, and we get together now semiregularly for lunch to share old memories, tell lies about our grandkids, and just check up on each other. It was over one of these meetings that I learned why Russ wanted to go to Tinian. Roy had been an aircraft ground crewman loading munitions on B-29 aircraft bombing Japanese targets on the Pacific as well as in mainland Japan. Somewhere along the line, he had probably loaded weapons on the Enola Gay or Bockscar or several of the other aircraft flying missions over Japan.

So far the story is rather mundane. And now, the rest of the story... the story few knew. Roy was born in central Idaho to farmers growing onions and sugar beets. Kim, his wife, was raised in the east Multnomah County area near Portland. Roy and Kim Yamada were Nisei, second-generation Japanese born in the United States. Kim's family was interned in Idaho and worked in the farm fields, where she met Roy. Roy volunteered for the Army Air Corps. My friend, Russ Yamada, is Sansei, third-generation Japanese born in the U.S. Roy's parents were originally from Hiroshima, but had been evacuated.

Russ, I hope I got the details all correct.

Thanks, A.H.

We are still accepting submissions at comments@electoral-vote.com. We plan to do 5 weeks' worth this year, and then this feature will certainly be back next year. (Z)

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