Illinois Speaks...

...And they actually had a fair bit to say, in yesterday's primary elections.

We suppose we should start at the top, even though there was no drama there. Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D), running for reelection, was unopposed. He will face the Republican that everyone expected to win the four-way primary, state Sen. Darren Bailey, who took 53.5% of the vote. On the prediction market Kalshi, the GOP having chosen their candidate caused the party's odds of winning the governorship to drop from 12% to 9%. We think this is silly, and that the odds did not change one iota. They were 0% before the primary, and they're 0% now.

Even if the governor's races were uninteresting, the Senate primaries, for the soon-to-be-open seat of Dick Durbin (D), were real barnburners, though neither ended up quite as close as expected. On the Republican side, Illinois GOP chair Don Tracy is the pick, taking 39.8% of the vote, as compared to 22.9% for lawyer and political newbie Jeannie Evans, the second-place finisher. On the Democratic side, the voters favored the Pritzker-backed Lt. Gov. Julianna Stratton (D), who outdistanced the more lefty Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D), 40.1% to 33.2%. Stratton, though not a far lefty, is still something of a bomb-thrower—check out this not-safe-for-work ad, brought to our attention by reader R.V. in Pittsburgh, PA:

R.V. adds "Before Donald Trump, an ad like this would be unheard of. Now, it's completely justifiable."

Stratton's success, particularly by such a comfortable margin, is a feather in the cap for Pritzker, and a boost to his presidential hopes. Meanwhile, in the likely event that she wins in the general, she'll become the 15th Black U.S. Senator in American history. At that point, Illinois, the only state to have sent three Black Senators to Congress, will become the first state to have sent four Black Senators. It will also become the second state to have sent two Black women to the U.S. Senate (along with California). Good for Illinois!

There were also a few House districts of interest, starting with IL-02, which is being vacated by Rep. Robin Kelly (D), who finished in third place in the Democratic Senate primary. The Democratic voters in the district had a chance to re-nominate Jesse Jackson Jr., who held the seat a decade ago before getting enmeshed in a corruption scandal. Instead, they went with Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller, who outpaced Jackson 40.4% to 29%. IL-02 is D+18 and 50% Black, so white guy Michael Scott Noack, who was unchallenged in the Republican primary, really doesn't need to bother campaigning. He's very moderate, and thinks ICE needs to be reined in and that there should be investment in green technology, so he wouldn't fit in with Mike and The Gang in D.C. anyhow.

IL-07 is one of the bluest districts in the country, at D+34, so Democrats came out of the woodwork once Rep. Danny Davis (D) announced his retirement. State Rep. La Shawn K. Ford came out on top in the 13-way race, with 23.9% of the vote. The Republican nominee will be Chad Koppie, who can also feel free to stay home. Koppie, a lifelong farmer, decided that 89 years of age is the perfect time to start a career in the House. Clearly he does not know a damn thing about American politics. Age 89 is when you start a career in the Senate, not the House.

IL-09 is also very blue. Not as blue as IL-07, but D+19 was still enough to spark a lot of interest from wannabe Democratic members of the House. This was the bright and shining outcome of the night for the Bernie/AOC wing of the party, as the progressive Mayor Daniel Biss (Evanston) took 29.4% of the vote to 26.1% for the also progressive influencer Kat Abughazaleh and 20.3% for the moderate state Sen. Laura Fine. The dominant issue here was Israel; Biss is Jewish and pro-Palestine independence, Abughazaleh is Palestinian and pro-Palestine independence, Fine is Jewish and pro-Israel and was supported by significant funding from AIPAC.

There are five districts in Illinois that are close enough to be considered swing districts. They are IL-06 (D+3), IL-08 (D+5), IL-13 (D+5), IL-14 (D+3) and IL-17 (D+3). However, four of the five are held by Democrats, and given the lean of the districts, the benefits of incumbency, and the likely blue oceanic event in November (somewhere between a ripple and a tsunami), those four are all pretty safe. The fifth is IL-08, which is the seat Krishnamoorthi decided to vacate to take his (now failed) shot at the U.S. Senate. Moderate former representative Melissa L. Bean beat the more progressive Junaid Ahmed, 31.8% to 26.7%, to win the Democratic nomination. The Republican will be Jennifer Davis, who is an entrepreneur and a moderate. She has a better chance than any other Republican we've mentioned so far, but not a lot better. Being a former representative isn't the same thing as being a sitting representative, but it's close. Between that and the other factors favoring the blue team, all the race ratings have this one as solidly Democratic, even though it's technically in swing territory (which means "anywhere from R+5 to D+5").

If you're looking for overall themes here, the obvious one is that "safe" candidates were generally preferred. This is not out of character for Illinois; Democrats there tend to be pretty moderate. This is, after all, the state that gave us Barack Obama, Roland Burris, Tammy Duckworth, Durbin, Rod Blagojevich, Pat Quinn and Pritzker. None of these folks is a hardcore leftist. Or even a mediumcore leftist. Still, it's a bit more data for the pile that suggests that Democratic voters are so eager to defang Trump and MAGA, they don't want to take any risks in 2026. Maybe not in 2028, either.

There were also three special elections for state legislatures yesterday, to fill seats left vacant by death or resignation. Two of those were in Pennsylvania. In HD-79, Andrea Verobish (R) triumphed over Caleb McCoy (D) by 15 points, 57% to 42%. and in HD-193, Catherine Wallen (R) came out ahead of Todd Crawley (D) by 19.4 points, 59.7% to 40.3%. The two Republican wins mean that the Pennsylvania state House is again tied, 100D-100R, though there are three vacancies, and two of them are in blue districts. So, the tie won't last.

There was also an election for the Virginia House of Delegates, HD-98. In that one, Andrew Rice (R) defeated Cheryl Smith (D) by 25 points, 62.5% to 37.5%. And, as a bonus, we'll note there was also a special election in Louisiana over the weekend, to fill the seat representing HD-69. There, Paul Sawyer (R) defeated Angela Roberts (D) by 13 points, 53% to 40%.

So, that's four wins for the GOP. The Republicans have to be pretty happy about that, right? Maybe so. But maybe not. All four districts are ruby red. Democrats actually thought they had a chance to flip the seat in Virginia, since that district voted for Trump by "only" 14.6 points. Who knows what they were smoking, since the actual result was 10.4 points more lopsided in the Republicans' favor, which is a rarity these days.

In the other three districts, however, the shift was in the other direction. Louisiana HD-69 went for Trump by 20.1, so Saturday's result was a shift of 7.1 points in the Democrats' direction. Pennsylvania HD-79 went for Trump by 32.6 points, so yesterday's result was a shift of 17.6 points in the Democrats' direction. And Pennsylvania HD-193 went for Trump by 37.8 points, so yesterday's result was a shift of 18.4 points in the Democrats' direction. So, outside of that one contest, this year's (and last year's) overall trend of medium-to-big shifts toward the Democrats held. Hence the possibility that the 4-0 outcome for the GOP wasn't quite the good news for them that it first appears to be.

We'll pass along one last bit of election-related news, since we are on the subject anyhow. Yesterday was the deadline for Texas candidates for office to withdraw from their runoff elections. Neither Sen. John Cornyn (R) nor Texas AG Ken Paxton (R) did so, so they will both be on the ballot when Texan Republicans (and Texans who have not voted yet) head back to the polls to pick the Republican nominee for this year's U.S. Senate race. That makes it considerably harder for anyone, even Donald Trump, to control the outcome. If Trump had just done the smart thing, endorsed Cornyn, and then offered Paxton a post as U.S. Ambassador to Sleazbalikstan, then Paxton might have been persuaded to drop out. Realistically though, the only job Paxton might have been willing to accept is AG, which would mean firing Pam Bondi, who almost certainly knows more about Epstein than she has let on so far. If Trump were to fire her, there is the real danger that she would go to the National Enquirer and say: "Make me an offer I can't refuse." (Z)

Trump Is Losing the Narrative on Iran

We'll start this item with the big news from yesterday, at least as judged by how many big headlines it got. Trump ally and supporter, and Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, Joe Kent, resigned his job yesterday in protest of the Iran War, saying there is no justification for the conflict, as that nation posed no imminent threat to the U.S.

Kent's resignation letter, which you can read here, is pretty fiery. It is also pretty forgiving of Trump and at the same time veers in the general direction of antisemitism. Those two things are related; if Trump is not to be blamed for the invasion, then someone else has to be, and Kent thinks Israel is the villain. We recognize, of course, that "Jews" and "Israel" are not the same thing. However, his claims about Israel "manufacturing" the war and plotting and scheming to manipulate Trump do have shades of The Protocols of the Elders of Zion. Also, let's be very clear that Trump most certainly deserves the responsibility here, because the buck stops with him, and that even if he was being manipulated, it was not just by Israel but also by hawks within his own party. And don't forget, the U.A.E. bought $2 billion "worth" of worthless Trump crypto, Qatar gave Trump a $400 million gilded airplane, and Saudi Arabia gave Jared Kushner $2 billion to play with. All of them hate Iran and would love to see it sent back to the 7th century.

Kent's apostasy led to the latest round of finger-pointing, as Trump slammed Kent as a "loser" and a "crazed egomaniac," and said Kent is "weak." Which is a fair descriptor of a retired Green Beret who served 11 tours of duty in Iraq, we'd say. The President also blamed DNI Tulsi Gabbard for hiring Kent. Gabbard, for her part, insisted that wasn't her responsibility, but did say that Kent is wrong about the "imminent threat" part. Strange how nobody in the administration has been able to provide proof of that imminent threat, though.

Perhaps more important, once the Kent furor has died down, is this: Remember Trump v1.0, where the White House leaked like a sieve? Well, we seem to have returned to that era, and reporters these days are having no problem finding staffers willing to say critical things off the record, particularly as regards Iran. For example, Trump claimed Monday that nobody in the U.S. intelligence community expected Iran to react the way it has. This seems ridiculous on its face—nobody expected them to pick another Ayatollah from their seemingly endless supply of radical clerics, to dig their heels in, and to back their position with violence? Really? We are very far from experts on Iranian affairs, but c'mon—that prediction seems like shooting fish in a barrel. And, in any event, shortly after he said it, there were numerous folks in the executive branch willing to tell reporters that Trump was most certainly warned that this was one possible outcome.

To take another example, Politico put a piece together yesterday featuring numerous quotes from White House insiders, in which they say the U.S. once had the initiative, but that Iran now "hold[s] the cards." And to take a third example, folks in the Pentagon told NBC News that they have no idea what the plan is, and that the war could go on forever, or it could end tomorrow. Consequently, all planning has to have both "moving forward" scenarios and "exit ramp" scenarios. Again, we don't know Iran, but we do know something of military history and of tactics and strategy. And if you are simultaneously planning your attack, and also your retreat, you're not going to do your best work.

At the same time, Trump continues to rage about how foreign nations did not rush to help bail him out on the Strait of Hormuz mess. And yesterday, sounding kind of like a 6-year-old, he got on his social media platform for loners to declare that the U.S. is so awesome and so powerful that it does not need them, and never needed them anyhow. If the U.S. had a ball in Europe, Trump would surely be taking it and going home right now.

With Trump running his mouth about foreign nations on a daily basis, the people he's slamming—who, unlike Republicans, don't HAVE to take it—are increasingly deciding not to hold their tongues. For example, the U.K.'s National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell let it be known yesterday that a deal with Iran was in reach, and there was no reason to attack them (thus ending talks). And Powell should know, since he was at the negotiating table. To take another example, Lt. Gen. Michel Yakovleff (ret.), formerly of the French Foreign Legion, appeared on French news channel LCI, and let Trump have it with both barrels, referring to the President as "le capitaine du Titanic." We don't speak French, so we obviously have no idea what he could possibly be saying there, but maybe our French-speaking readers will find it enlightening.

And finally, on the subject of Iran having all the cards, the new leadership of that country has rejected all peace/de-escalation proposals put before them. Even Trump understands that if a leader is unpopular at home, a good way to rectify that is a popular war against an unpopular enemy. His problem is that he has no idea how to go about creating a popular war (a task, it should be noted, that put even the considerably greater skills of Franklin D. Roosevelt to the test).

Meanwhile, U.S. gas prices just keep climbing. Regular unleaded is up to $3.72/gallon, on average, which is an increase of about 80 cents over a month ago. And diesel is just shy of $5/gallon on average, an increase of $1.34 over a month ago. Most people do not drive diesel vehicles, but most truckers do, and so higher diesel prices tend to mean higher prices for things that are delivered by big-rig trucks, like food and manufactured goods.

And on it goes... (Z)

A Tale, Told by an Idiot, Full of Sound and Fury, Signifying Nothing, Part III: The FCC

This was actually supposed to run yesterday, but we ran out of time. If it had run, we think the theme of "their only tool available is hot air" would have been more obvious, and the propriety of the headline would have been more evident.

Over the past few days, FCC Chair Brendan Carr has resumed his crusade to turn all television broadcast stations into state-run media. He warned that if TV stations broadcast news that is critical of the Iran War, which he views as "distortions," they are at risk of losing their broadcast licenses.

This is not only an obvious and frightening assault on the First Amendment, it's also complete and total nonsense. The bar for yanking a license is very, very high, such that the last time it happened was decades ago. If Carr was to try it, the matter would be tied up in court for years, since saying mean things about the Iran war does not constitute a violation. And it wouldn't just be one lawsuit, it would be hundreds or thousands, since the broadcast license does not belong to "ABC" or "CBS," it belongs to the local broadcasters. So, if Carr gets his knickers in a twist because CBS News Tonight gave Donald Trump the sads, he'd have to take action in Fort Wayne, and Tallahassee, and Altoona, and Peoria, and Springfield (all 34 of them), and hundreds and hundreds of other broadcast markets.

Oh, and if there is any doubt the real concern here is adhering to the party line, and not something else, Carr also noted that he's not concerned about talk radio, and he's not considering any actions against those users of the public broadcast spectrum. Hmmm... wonder why?

We're not sure what is going on in Carr's head. Has he become so impressed with the enormity of his influence and power that he really thinks he can bend broadcasters to his will? The only circumstance where he has any real ability to do that is with mergers, like the Viacom merger, where the FCC has to sign off. In those cases, Carr can effectively use the FCC approval to blackmail the would-be mergees into honoring (or, at least, paying lip service to) his ideas about "fairness."

Or maybe, as is the case with so many people in government these days, Carr is just performing for an audience of one. If so, well, that audience of one is loving the show. We do wonder if Trump even understands that the FCC has zero control over the Internet, cable news, podcasts, social media, or the myriad other ways in which people get information today. We also suspect that both Trump and Carr think that broadcast news has far more reach today than it actually does, and don't appreciate that these days, there are no more Walter Cronkites. (Z)

Venezuela Defeats U.S., 3-2

Last night was the finale of the World Baseball Classic, the triennial baseball tournament featuring teams from 20 different nations. The near-universal consensus, going into the tournament, was that only four teams had any shot of winning—the U.S., the Dominican Republic, Mexico and Japan—and that all the other players were just getting a nice vacation and something to tell their grandkids about.

The people who were saying these things were making clear they don't actually know much about baseball, since the gap between the best and the worst teams is much smaller than in most sports, and since games are often decided by one key pitch, or one bad bounce, or one dropped ball. Even in a seven-game series, like the World Series, flukes happen all the time. And the WBC is a single-elimination tournament (once pool play ends), which just increases the likelihood of random outcomes.

The championship game featured the U.S. and... not one of the other three "inevitable" teams. While the players from the D.R., Mexico and Japan watched from the bleachers, it was Venezuela who took the field against the Americans. And it was a heckuva game, with an added (unusual) layer that the Major League Baseball season is about to start, and teams don't want their very expensive players to get hurt. So, there were several "[PLAYER X] can only play in [Y CIRCUMSTANCE]" situations.

Venezuela led 2-0 for much of the game, until the U.S., powered by a Bryce Harper home run, tied it in the bottom of the eighth inning. There was much supposition that the U.S. was about to break a mini-curse, having lost the last two WBC title games. However, the Venezuelans seemed to have a little extra motivation, and pulled ahead 3-2 on a Eugenio Suárez double. By pre-arrangement with his MLB team (the Chicago Cubs), closer Daniel Palencia was only allowed to enter the game if it was the bottom of the ninth and it was a save situation (so, a lead of 3 runs or fewer). Those conditions were met, so he came in, got three consecutive outs, and Venezuela had their first WBC title.

We can't imagine why Venezuela might possibly have had just a little extra motivation when facing the United States, but we thought we'd pass the story along in case readers are able to solve the puzzle. In any event, congratulations to the Venezuelans! (Z)

Humor Hath Charms: Clowning Around

We are still trying to get these various new features launched. They need names, they need a regular day of the week, they need content, and at least some of those things are tough to figure out because there are many moving pieces. We have got the Political Bytes up and running, and that's good, because it's getting good feedback.

The proposed weekly humor did not get quite the overwhelming support as the other two new features, but even then, it was 90+% positive, so we're going with it. Today, we mostly want to get a list of proposed names out there, so we can lock that in. Here are the finalists:

• I Can See Russia From My House—SNL's takedown of Sarah Palin
• Laughing in the Face of Catastrophe—Self-evident
• Laugh-In—America's first great televised political satire
• And Now For Something Completely Different—Monty Python reference
• May the Farce Be With You—Star Wars pun
• Funny Old World, Innit?—Common in British humor, also Pirates of the Caribbean
• Paging Thomas Nast—America's greatest political cartoonist
• Suppose You Were an Idiot—Start of a famous snarky line about Congress, from Mark Twain

You can vote here.

That said, we also want to have a little content for this feature today, and if we're ever going to go with today's item, well, on or near St. Patrick's Day is the ideal occasion. So, we share this very meme-worthy bit of sardonic Irish wit, first put to paper by Patrick Freyne of The Irish Times about 5 years ago:

Having a monarchy next door is a little like having a neighbour who's really into clowns and has daubed their house with clown murals, displays clown dolls in each window and has an insatiable desire to hear about and discuss clown-related news stories. More specifically, for the Irish, it's like having a neighbour who's really into clowns and, also, your grandfather was murdered by a clown.

Although that's really the money quote, the whole piece continues in much the same vein, so if you like what you see here, click through the link and read the rest. We'll announce the permanent name of this feature sometime next week. (Z)

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