Guilfoyle Gets Run

Ever since the news broke that Kimberly Guilfoyle tried to use her Trump family connections to shake down a Republican donor for $100,000, it certainly seemed like she was a dead woman walking. And yesterday, the axe was finally swung, as the White House asked for, and received, her resignation as United States Ambassador to Greece.

It is very hard to know why some members of the Trump administration get canned for their misdeeds, and others skate by. Could be gender, at least in part. Trump seems to fire high-profile women in a ratio of roughly 2:1 with high-profile men; for every Corey Lewandowski there's a Lori Chavez-DeRemer and a Pam Bondi, for every Greg Bovino there's a Kristi Noem and a Tulsi Gabbard. Another theory that's out there, in the case of Guilfoyle, is that it's OK to be a grifter in the Trump administration, but only if you let the Grifter-in-Chief wet his beak a little (which she did not). It's also possible that whatever purpose was served in sending her halfway across the globe has been fulfilled. We have no hard evidence to back this up, but it always seemed like sending her abroad was a way to keep her from spilling her guts about the Donalds Trump, as Junior was her former fiancee and Senior was very nearly her father-in-law. Now that Guilfoyle is disgraced, any dirt she might spill would come off as sour grapes, and wouldn't be taken as seriously.

In any event, Guilfoyle's out. In case voters needed a reminder, weeks before the election, that this administration is both chaotic and corrupt, they now have one. Well, another one. We would guess it's 50/50 that Guilfoyle gets replaced before January 20, 2029. It takes Donald Trump a very long time to make nominations anyhow, and if and when he does name a replacement, it's possible that the Senate will be controlled by the Democrats. If they don't approve the nomination, then the U.S. embassy in Athens will just be run by Josh Hack, the professional diplomat who is taking over for Guilfoyle on an interim basis. He's almost certainly better than anyone Trump might come up with.

Meanwhile, which head might be the next one to roll? A pretty good guess is... the person who made the official announcement that Guilfoyle was out. That would be the new White House Press Secretary (WHPS), Katie Zacharia, who made her official debut yesterday. Needless to say, serving as WHPS is no easy task, particularly if you're not used to extemporaneous public speaking. It's even harder to do that job under Donald Trump, as you not only have to lie, lie and lie some more, you have to do so convincingly.

However, even allowing for the fact that it takes some time for a WHPS to find their groove, Zacharia was... underwhelming. The entire press conference lasted only 14 minutes, and she took only three questions. She spoke in a manner that made her seem like an AI-generated character and struggled to read her notes. While she understands well that her job is primarily to deliver propaganda on behalf of the White House, her delivery of said propaganda made Sean Spicer seem believable. Here is a 3½-minute supercut of the lowlights:

If you are a glutton for punishment, and you want to see the whole 14 minutes, that's here.

Zacharia has one other liability, beyond the fact that she was pretty terrible yesterday. She made a big point of the "fact" that she has a law degree, and that she practiced in China. Yesterday, however, it came out that there is no evidence that Zacharia has ever practiced law, or been licensed to practice law, in any jurisdiction in the United States. Initially, she explained that away by asserting that she sat for the bar exam while she was in China. The problem there is that China does not allow non-citizens to do that, and even if they do, the entire exam is in Chinese, and Zacharia is not plausibly fluent enough to handle it. Further, the job she had in China was not a position that is typically filled by a lawyer. By the end of the day yesterday, Zacharia's position had evolved to asserting that she has "all the appropriate credentials" to practice law. OK, then. That reminds us that we've been meaning to make an announcement. We are pleased to share with Electoral-Vote.com readers that both (V) and (Z) have "all the appropriate credentials" to play center for the Los Angeles Lakers.

Trump has an enormous amount of tolerance for incompetence in certain jobs. For example, he doesn't give a tinker's dam about what the Department of Housing and Urban Development is up to, so Secretary Scott Turner is free to do as he pleases. But the President cares enormously about the image that his administration puts forward, and he absolutely hates to see clumsy, embarrassing clips of his press secretary on Fox. So, the WHPS has a much shorter leash. One White House official, speaking off the record, predicted Zacharia might not even make it to 1 Scaramucci (10 days).

And if you would like a dark horse candidate to be the next head to roll, then how about Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth? We are absolutely persuaded that one day, probably sooner rather than later, he will take the fall for the Iran disaster. The only question, as far as we are concerned, is what incident will precipitate his fall. And it is at least possible that the incident that does the job will be... the plans to livestream the execution of Nidal Hasan. It would seem that when he secured permission to use a firing squad, the SecDef neglected to mention that Hasan is disabled and uses a wheelchair; he was shot by law enforcement to stop his attack at Fort Hood and was paralyzed as a result. Trump is not pleased about all the blowback that the decision has produced, and he's concerned that shooting a paralyzed, wheelchair-using man will be a very bad look, indeed. The odds are very good the livestream gets canceled. It's also possible the method of execution will be changed. And if those things come to pass, it could be that Hegseth gets swept aside at the same time. (Z)

Democrats Are Making Money Moves

One of the storylines of this cycle has been that the Republican Party is awash in cash, while the Democrats are going through the couch cushions desperately searching for change. And this is certainly correct, if you only focus on the big, party-aligned organs like the RNC and the DNC.

That said, we have never accepted that it makes sense on a holistic level. It is true that the GOP has Elon Musk, and the $276 million he's ponied up so far. There are also several other billionaire donors who have gotten out their wallets, like Peter Thiel and Richard Uihlein. However, the Democrats have so much more enthusiasm this cycle (at least, as judged by poll questions about enthusiasm) that you had to assume that the Democrats would make up for the billionaires with far and away more grassroots donations.

The Q3 numbers are rolling in, and early indications are that our suspicions will be sustained. For example, Mary Peltola (D) brought in $17 million as she seeks to unseat Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK). To take another example, Adam Hamilton's (D) haul was $10.6 million as he tries to defeat Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS). That is $23 for every resident of Alaska, and $3.50 for every resident of Kansas, respectively. Clearly, most of that money is coming from out of state.

Along with that, in an interesting turn of events, the various Democratic organs have begun to make up the gap they were ostensibly facing. For example, the House Majority PAC and House Majority Forward, which are House Democrats' two biggest PACs, raised a remarkable $230 million in Q3. That is a record for any quarter, ever, for those groups.

There are just so many complicating factors these days that make it nearly impossible to get the full picture, money-wise. People can donate to the party organs (something Republican donors tend to prefer) or they can donate to the candidates directly (something Democratic donors tend to prefer). They can donate to a wide range of PACs, some defined by their relationship to a particular politician or party (e.g., MAGA Inc.), others defined by a particular issue (e.g., EMILYs List). Of course, thanks to Chief Justice John Roberts and his party of five, those PAC donations might be unknown to the general public.

Still another complicating factor is that some candidates and PACs spend a lot of money to... bring in more money. If one candidate spends $15 million on soliciting donations and brings in $20 million, is that better than a candidate who spends $3 million on solicitations and brings in $10 million? Clearly not, and yet the $20 million gets the headlines. And then, one of the sneakiest issues of all is this: There is enormous motivation for everyone who is collecting donations to plead poverty, so that donors think that their money is desperately needed. James Talarico (D) has been one of the most effective fundraisers this cycle, and yet, to see his YouTube pleas for cash, you'd think his campaign barely has two nickels to rub together. We have absolutely no evidence this is the case, but we would not be surprised if the House Majority PAC and House Majority Forward used a little accounting trickery to make Q2 look bad/desperate, and then to make Q3 look like the Party's momentum is cresting.

Back when most of the donations went through the central party organs, fundraising was a pretty good proxy for enthusiasm, and a useful data point alongside polling. But now, the fundraising is such a black box, you just can't draw firm conclusions. (Z)

Political Bytes, National Edition: Gonna Party Like It's 1699

As the World Turns, Part I: Yesterday, we had an item on the Texas U.S. Senate race in which we noted that we'd been trying to get around to writing it for a week, and that every day's worth of delay added even more soap opera-esque elements to the equation. Well, just because we finally wrote the item does not mean the soap opera ended. The latest story, broken by The Wall Street Journal, is that Ken Paxton (R) spent New Year's Eve this year in Dubai, celebrating with his mistress and two fugitives from justice, accused embezzlers Anosh Ahmed and Sameer Suhail (who have since returned to the U.S. to face the music). Every headline describes Paxton as having spent the holiday "partying" in Dubai, but we do not believe Paxton has ever "partied."

Our Take: We've said it before, but if the Democrats can't win in this environment, against such a godawful candidate, then the Texas Democratic Party might as well shut down.

---

As the World Turns, Part II: The advertisements coming out of Texas are also an endless source of raised eyebrows. The latest from the Paxton campaign is a spot that brags, "Missing child posters go up, Ken Paxton takes them down," accompanied by a shot of a hand tearing a missing child poster off of a telephone pole. The point they are trying to make is that, as state AG, Paxton helped solve missing-child cases. However, the way it's presented, it looks like he tries to keep kidnappers from being caught by tearing down the posters as soon as they are put up.

Our Take: Normally, campaigns make sure to focus group their ads before releasing those ads into the wild. Does the Paxton campaign feel that's not necessary? Do they not have the money? Are their focus-group participants just stupid? This is hardly the first really clumsy ad to come out of that campaign.

---

Letter Boxing, Part I: Yesterday, a group of 12 senators sent Donald Trump a letter telling him that he must cancel the diesel deal he made with Russia. The signatories include six Democrats (Richard Blumenthal, CT; Jeanne Shaheen, NH; Dick Durbin, IL; Sheldon Whitehouse and Jack Reed, both RI; and Chris Coons, DE) and six Republicans (Thom Tillis, NC; Susan Collins, ME; Alan Armstrong, OK; Lisa Murkowski, AK; Mitch McConnell, KY; and John Cornyn, TX).

Our Take: A somewhat substantive rebellion against Trump, albeit one involving four senators who will definitely be out of office by January 3 (the four men), a fifth who may join them in the unemployment line (Collins), and a sixth who is already the most rebellious member of her conference (Murkowski). That doesn't necessarily demonstrate that the rest of the Senate Republican Conference is growing a spine, but it could be a start, especially since the six red teamers might also be speaking for colleagues who can't afford to take a stand before the election.

---

Letter Boxing, Part II: The Capitol Hill Post Office has a lot to do this week. In her capacity as Ranking Member of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) sent Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent a letter looking for answers to five questions, like "Beyond buybacks, what is [Treasury] doing to bring long-term [bond] yields down?" Bessent responded with an over-the-top snotty letter in which he accused the Senator of insincerity, referred to her "complete paucity of knowledge about financial markets," and offered to personally instruct her in "Foreign Exchange for Dummies." Then, to twist the knife a little more, he added a handwritten note: "Happy Indigenous Peoples' Day in advance to you and your family."

Our Take: Very obnoxious. And it makes clear that Bessent has no real plan for taming the economy, since if he did, the questions should have been eminently answerable.

---

The Power of Positive Presidential Delusion, Part I: It's about the time when folks in Washington (and elsewhere) take a look in the mirror, and maybe decide that they are made of presidential timber. And that means that, in the next few months or so, there are going to be a run of people teasing utterly laughable would-be runs. Getting an early start in the "What on Earth are you thinking?" sweepstakes is Sen. John Neely Kennedy, who told Meet the Press' Kristen Welker this weekend that he is definitely considering running.

Our Take: Kennedy is a MAGA backbencher whose only accomplishment is making a lot of appearances on Fox News, during which he invariably looks like he is chewing his cud. The United States has had exactly one John Kennedy as president. That sentence will remain true for the next 40 years, at least.

---

The Power of Positive Presidential Delusion, Part II: Former CNN anchor Don Lemon is also teasing a run, telling podcaster Spencer Macnaughton there is a 65%-70% chance that he'll toss his hat in the ring as an independent.

Our Take: A gay Black man with no experience in political office who got fired from CNN for misogyny. Yeah, people are going to be lining up around the block to vote for him.

---

Just Ducky, Part I: The current Republican majority in the House has done a lot of can-kicking this session, vaguely imagining that they'll tie up a lot of loose ends once the midterms are over, during the lame-duck session. As that time grows closer, however, reality is setting in. First, the tricky stuff they couldn't agree on (e.g., budget) isn't somehow going to get less tricky, particularly with just 24 days left in this session. Plus, some/many members who are retiring (voluntarily or not) might forgo a return to Washington and commence their retirement early. With a margin of 2-3 votes at most, that could be fatal for any plans Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has.

Our Take: If a bunch of Republican members are going to head for the hills early, that could also pave the way for things like an impeachment of Pete Hegseth, or a rebuke of the Russia diesel deal.

---

Just Ducky, Part II: Speaking of Mike Johnson, last week he somewhat implied that if the Republicans lose control of the House, he might retire. That is certainly plausible, since the last three GOP speakers retired as soon as they lost the gavel (and the one right before that only lingered for 10 months before retiring). Yesterday, Johnson walked that back and said that in the unlikely case the Republicans lose the House, he's planning to stay on as minority leader.

Our Take: We'll believe it when we see it. Herding the cats is a difficult job. Herding these particular cats is especially difficult. And herding these particular cats with severely reduced power, when you've already had a taste of being in the big chair, is more difficult still. We think it is more likely than not that the lame-duck session is his swan song. And we say that as eagle-eyed observers of politics who have been watching him like a hawk for 2 years. Of course, if we are proven wrong about that turkey, we'll be happy to eat crow.

To any reader who recognizes the reference in the headline (actually, arguably, two references): Well done! (Z & A)

Local Bytes: How to Not Start Foreign Wars

We have been remiss in not sharing some of the very interesting e-mails we have gotten from readers about their local races. Let's fix that right now:

P.C. in Helena, MT: You implied that Alani Bankhead, the Democratic candidate in the Montana U.S. Senate race, might actually have been recruited by Republicans. While she's definitely a Republican asset, what we know as of today makes me doubt she started as a Republican agent.

Bankhead can talk like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), but some suspect she is a double-agent because of her past activities. Seth Bodnar is the former University of Montana president turned independent candidate who has high-ranking Democratic backers, along with some prominent non-MAGA Republicans. Kurt Alme is a Republican sock-puppet candidate snuck on the ballot by the outgoing Republican senator Steve Daines (R) as he made his surprise exit. There's also Kyle Austin, a Republican-turned-Libertarian who is unlikely to do much.

The timing of events doesn't support the contention that Bankhead is a Republican creation. Bankhead had registered a campaign committee about a month before Bodnar's intent became widely known. Montana at that moment was considered to be strongly GOP for the Senate. And this was also a month before Donald Trump attacked Iran, when not many thought control of the Senate was in play.

Further, the initial Republican dirty tricks effort was to support Reilly Neill, the frontrunner in the Democratic primary. At the end of April, a Republican-friendly PAC started faux-attacking Neill as "too liberal for Montana," charges which they expected would promote her among Democrats. The PAC did so in expectation that she would stay in the race and deny votes for Bodnar. It was a Bodnar-adjacent PAC, not Republicans, that then began touting the unknown and underfunded Bankhead. Within days of the Neill attacks appearing, that PAC registered with the Federal Elections Commission and immediately started boosting Bankhead as the best Democratic candidate. This was in hopes of undercutting Neill, an actual Democratic politician, in contrast to Bankhead, who had only arrived in the state a couple of years ago and who didn't appear to be a serious candidate. To complicate matters further, the Republican PAC followed up by faux-supporting Bankhead, advocating for her by saying she was the one who would reach across the aisle to work with President Trump. It seemed to be an effort to discourage Democratic support for her and counter the Bodnar-adjacent PAC, but by this point, who could tell?

In the end, Bankhead won the Democratic primary with 48,772 votes to Neill's 36,880. All those PACs combined spent over $4 million on Bankhead and Neill; Bankhead herself spent less than $40,000. Once the general election got underway, PAC support for Bankhead mostly disappeared and Democratic donors have laid low. Bodnar has serious money and enthusiastic backing, but Bankhead is definitely not inclined to withdraw and has attacked Bodnar repeatedly. Enough Republicans are tired of Trump and disgusted at Daines that for the first time in a long while Republicans could, at least theoretically, be in danger. And Bankhead is indeed the one best positioned to pull them out of that danger. However, if Bankhead was recruited as you implied, it was a pretty prescient effort. (Of course, feel free to speculate about what has happened since.)

---

M.S. in Canton, NY: Things have gotten unexpectedly interesting in New York's deep red 21st Congressional district (Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik's soon-to-be-former district). In the race between Republican Anthony Constantino and Democrat Blake Gendebien, we are being barraged by TV ads for both candidates—typical elsewhere, for sure, but almost unheard-of in this eternally non-competitive district.

In his primary race, Constantino couldn't say the name "Trump" often enough: He bragged about putting a 100-foot-long, 12-foot-high "Vote for Trump" sign on the factory he owns; about giving Trump a 7-foot bronze statue of himself (statue of Trump, that is); and about making a rap album called Thank You President Trump. Now, however, for some reason he has not mentioned Trump a single time in any of the ads I've seen. Instead, they are all about how "I'm my own man" and how Gendebien is a radical "Democrat politician," controlled by all kinds of evil people like New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani (D). (Fact check: this is the first partisan office that Gendebien has ever run for. I doubt he has ever met Mamdani.)

In contrast, Blake Gendebien's early ads were about how he is a hard-working dairy farmer who understands the concerns of the hard-working people of the North Country. Oh, and did he mention that he believes in hard work? (For reasons unrelated to politics, I happened to meet Blake's mother a few weeks ago, and the one thing she seemed to want us to know about her son in our short conversation is that he really is a dairy farmer.) More recently, his ads have shifted to specific issues—especially the cost of diesel, in this rural district—for which everyone knows whom to blame, but he doesn't much mention the name "Trump" either. Instead, he just says he'll be an independent voice standing up to Washington on behalf of the North Country. Some of his recent ads are more pointed in attacking Constantino as an unserious hack who wouldn't even know what "hard work" is.

Will any of this matter? Apparently it might. The DCCC has recently added NY-21 to its "Red to Blue" list, which suggests more resources may be coming in. Even more surprisingly, the only credible poll so far, by Siena, shows Gendebien ahead, 46% to 42%. I remain skeptical, but if it holds up, it would be a shocking upset.

---

S.G. in Vancouver, WA: Here is a new article from NPR, about Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA): "In one of the country's most competitive districts, a Democrat tries to keep her seat."

My family lives within the city of Vancouver, and this particular statement from the article:

Clark County, where Vancouver is located, has slowly gotten bluer since 2008. Vancouver itself, Hoyt observed, has shifted toward the progressive side of the scale. That progressive tilt proposes trouble for Gluesenkamp Perez, especially since Clark County is one of two counties she consistently won since her first run for Congress.

really resonates. We have always had her back, but she does not have ours. If she has to vote on a bill that favors only one side of her district (urban Vancouver vs. the rural MAGA areas), they win EVERY time. She takes our votes for granted. We'll see how that works out for her this time.

My entire family is actually planning to skip over this race on the ballot. We won't vote Republican, but we're also not going to vote for pseudo-Republicans. From conversations with friends and neighbors in the city bounds, we are not alone. She left us first. She really can't afford to lose many votes from either side, but I suspect she will in spades.

---

J.R. in Deer Isle, ME: I have been inundated with mailers from the Susan Collins campaign and PACs supporting her. Every day I get at least two mailers telling me what a crook Democrat Troy Jackson is and what a great gift to Maine Collins is. I also had someone (paid) come to my house on her behalf, with a follow up by text. I'm on an island located in a rural part of the state. I haven't heard sh** from the Jackson campaign. I'm registered as "Unenrolled" and it seems Collins and her supporters are mining the Unenrolled voter rolls and Jackson is not. Although I hope to hell we can finally be rid of her come January, I am not counting her out because she knows how to run a campaign better than he apparently does.

---

G.M. in Salt Lake City, UT: Utah is a decidedly red state, but our Lieutenant Governor, Deidre Henderson (R), who runs Utah elections, has not conceded an inch to Trump's election shenanigans, including his attacks on mail-in voting, or his threat to prosecute her for refusing to submit voter rolls to the federal government. She also solidly opposes Sen. Mike Lee's (R-UT) SAVE Act. It sure is refreshing to see a politician perform their duties with competence and integrity.

---

P.M. in Edenton, NC: Just some thoughts I've had as we approach the election in November.

I received a flyer in the mail from Laurie Buckhout, the Republican nominee for NC-01: the only competitive Congressional district remaining in North Carolina (PVI: R+5). It's a standard attack-type flyer, against her opponent.

My thoughts upon looking at it: I'll probably vote against her because I'm tired of this gerrymandering stuff. And I'm tired of the nuttiness foisted upon the country by Donald Trump and those who enable him—which I suspect Buckhout would do. She seems to be a nice person; she lives here in Edenton, and some people from my church know her.

It's not about her; it's about all the craziness going on. I want some kind of sanity back. George W. Bush—say what you want about him—wasn't insane. Neither were Joe Biden, Barack Obama, Ronald Reagan, etc., etc.

Upon looking over the flyer, I tore it up and said "I can't vote for her because I want to restore sanity." And my view is that of an independent-minded voter who leans conservative. Laurie may very well be in the vein of former Michigan Rep. Peter Meijer, a sane Republican. But given what's going on, I simply can't support her.

---

M.S. in New York City, NY: This Achilles for Idaho ad is brilliant:

If you have local bytes for us, please send them to comments@electoral-vote.com.

Today's Senate Polls

Stetson may be all hat and no cattle, but they know how to poll big, Southern states. Nixon was always a long shot, and her odds are certainly not looking good. On the other hand, Michael Whatley is in even bigger trouble in North Carolina, which will certainly continue to gladden the hearts of Democrats. As to James Talarico, the Republicans have thrown everything but the kitchen sink at him, and his polling isn't changing. (Z)

State	Democrat	D %	Republican	R %	Start	End	Pollster
Florida	Angie Nixon	41%	Ashley Moody*	52%	Oct 01	Oct 09	Stetson U.
North Carolina	Roy Cooper	54%	Michael Whatley	40%	Oct 01	Oct 07	SurveyUSA
Texas	James Talarico	48%	Ken Paxton	44%	Oct 05	Oct 08	Siena U.

* Denotes incumbent

---

Previous report         Next report

---

If you wish to contact us, please use one of these addresses. For the first two, please include your initials and city.

• questions@electoral-vote.com    For questions about politics, civics, history, etc. to be answered on a Saturday
• comments@electoral-vote.com   For "letters to the editor" for possible publication on a Sunday
• corrections@electoral-vote.com To tell us about typos or factual errors we should fix
• items@electoral-vote.com            For general suggestions, ideas, etc.
• Guidelines for questions (Saturdays) and letters (Sundays)

To download a poster about the site to hang up, please click here.

---

Email a link to a friend.

---The Votemaster and Zenger