Sorry, the post is on the brief side, and no headline theme. "Able to put something together" is not quite the same thing as "Back to full strength."

TrumpWatch, Part I: The War Against the First Amendment Continues

Previously, Donald Trump tried to ban the Associated Press from the White House (and from associated venues). Yesterday, he ostensibly expanded the list, blackballing CNN, MS NOW and Politico. Here is the announcement, from his own lips (well, his own fingertips):

I am proud to announce that, effective immediately, I am banning Fake News CNN, MSNOW (who recently changed their name from MSNBC due to lack of viewership and credibility!), and Politico (The recipients of an illegal and ridiculous $8 Million Dollar subscription, an All Time Record, directly from the United States Government, under Crooked Joe Biden, in order to keep them "alive." Seems like corruption to me!), from the White House as a result of their constant "reporting" FAKE NEWS! Media Outlets shouldn't be able to constantly write or report FICTION and LIES when they're covering the President of the United States, the Trump Administration, or the United States of America. Other Fake News Media Outlets to follow. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

We write "ostensibly" because the announcement does not specify what exactly the nature of the "ban" is. Further, even several hours after the announcement, CNN's staffers were still working in the office space they use in the White House.

If Trump does try to move forward with this, beyond just thumping his chest on his social media platform for baboons, is it legal? The answer is... it's complicated. On one hand, not every outlet can have access to the White House, and in particular, it's acceptable for the administration to control access more strictly when dealing with highly secure, non-public areas like the Oval Office and Air Force One. On the other hand, as the administration decides who does, and does not, get access, it cannot engage in viewpoint discrimination. Access can be parceled out based on the size of the outlets, or some sort of lottery/rotation scheme, but it cannot be awarded based on coverage. The AP has a lawsuit right now, in fact, seeking clarity on this point. Thanks to the injunctions that have been granted, in advance of the pending trial, that agency still has White House access, but not Oval Office/Air Force One access.

The other obvious question here: Is the "new" policy politic? We can certainly say, because we checked, that the outspoken MAGA types are hailing Trump for his bravery in finally standing up to the "lamestream media." Of course, these same people would pitch a fit if a Democrat banned Fox from the White House, but MAGA has never been known for being intellectually consistent. All of this said, we don't know if we're entirely persuaded that MAGAworld is as excited as it pretends to be. They kind of have to back Trump's moves at all times, since that's how this works. However, one wonders if they're not quite as enthusiastic as they pretend to be.

Meanwhile, to anyone who is not MAGA, this is a bad look. It is, first of all, undemocratic and authoritarian. On top of that, it's pathetic and weak. One way to try to counter critical voices is to govern better. Another way is to try to silence those critical voices. Only one of those two approaches counts as "leadership," and it's not the one that Trump chose. Since the problem the GOP has in the midterms is attracting at least some voters who are not MAGA, we'd say that yesterday's lesson in Fascism 101 did more harm than good to the Party's November prospects. Meanwhile, if Trump is forced to back down, it will disappoint those folks who legitimately thought this was a "strong" move, while underscoring to everyone else that he's a wounded, cornered beast, screaming into the void. (Z)

TrumpWatch, Part II: Status Quo Ante Blovium

Donald Trump actually had a couple big announcements yesterday. Here's the other one:

BREAKING NEWS: I am pleased to announce that the United States of America has entered into an Agreement with The Kingdom of Denmark, and Greenland, that gives the United States permanent control over security, and all other needs, in Greenland, completely addressing ALL of our many U.S. concerns. There will be NO COST to the United States! At my direction, we worked with representatives of Denmark and Greenland to guarantee that the United States will FOREVER have the complete ability to do what is necessary in Greenland in order to secure and defend the security of Greenland, and the United States of America. Additionally, from now on, no U.S. adversary can EVER have a base in Greenland, have a military presence in Greenland, or make sensitive investments in Greenland, without our express written approval. For over 100 years, Presidents have known the strategic importance of Greenland, but NONE of them were able to do anything about it. I am proud to be the President that permanently and conclusively addressed this very important situation. This is an "Infinite Life" Agreement, there is no end! We are very honored and proud of what has just taken place, and everything agreed to today will be cherished by the American People. We will immediately begin the process of developing a large Military presence in the appropriate part of Greenland, of which there are many. We will work with the people of Greenland in its development and construction. This solution is a great one for the United States of America, Denmark, Greenland, and all of our Allies. We look forward to working with the wonderful people of Denmark and Greenland toward a magnificent future with respect to this large, and highly strategic, parcel of land. We will be very protective of it! This is a dream come true for the United States of America, one that is very important, historic, and special. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

There appears to be a real agreement, and not just the vaporware that Trump is prone to announcing, and that disappears into the ether. That said, the deal has yet to be approved by the Parliament of Greenland, so he's still jumping the gun.

We are hardly experts in the geopolitics of the Arctic Circle. That said, we do know that there is no such thing as an "Infinite Life" agreement. We also struggle to see what problem this solves. Were there previous limits on how many troops/how much materiel the U.S. could station on its bases in Greenland? If so, we're not aware of it. Similarly, was there really a problem with other nations trying to gain footholds in Greenland without U.S. consent? That seems rather unlikely, since such an attempt would be an obvious affront to U.S. sovereignty, along the lines of the Cuban Missile Crisis.

These things being the case, this sure looks to us like the Trump version of Vietnamization. In 1971, Richard Nixon decided to give up on the Vietnam War, but rather than call it a defeat or a surrender or a retreat, he came up with a fancy-sounding name and said the "new strategy" was to let the South Vietnamese Army do the fighting (as if they had just been sitting around playing tiddlywinks the whole time). Trump similarly created a mess for himself that he could not win, so it would appear he just fled with his tail between his legs, leaving the status quo intact, and then called it a "win." Perhaps this will impress some voters, but if so, we do now know who those voters are. (Z)

TrumpWatch, Part III: Signs Mount that MAGA is Fraying at the Edges

Sometimes Donald Trump has good weeks. Usually, he has bad weeks. But even the bad weeks are usually driven from without (by Iran, or the economy, or some persnickety reporter). This week had an unusual number of stories about trouble from within the tent. A rundown:

• And Then There Were Seven: This week, for the third time, the House voted to end the war in Iran. And there were three more Republican defectors, bringing to seven the total number of Iran aisle-crossers. Two of the new anti-war votes were from Iowans facing tough reelection battles—Zach Nunn and Marianette Miller-Meeks. The other was from Nancy Mace (SC), who switched sides because... well, who knows why she does what she does. The two Iowans made clear that they don't necessarily oppose the war, per se, but they do oppose the high gas prices it has caused.
  
  
• Britt's Two Faces: Publicly, Sen. Katie Britt (R-AL) has supported Donald Trump's tariffs. Privately, she's pressed the White House to get rid of the levies, particularly the ones that affect Alabama companies. This week, The Wall Street Journal laid bare the truth about the Senator's private and public faces, and called her out for being a phony and a hypocrite.
  
  
• ICEd Out: Oklahoma state trooper Lance Schroyer was Donald Trump's nominee to lead ICE. He has absolutely no experience leading a law enforcement agency, much less a very large law enforcement agency. His main, and only, qualification appears to be that he's buddies with DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin. At least a few Senate Republicans were not happy about the pick, and that was enough to kill the nomination. After a couple of months of Schroyer twisting in the wind, his nomination was yanked by the White House. In fairness, we must note that the last time the Senate managed to actually approve a leader for ICE was back in 2014. Ever since, it's been a string of acting directors. Maybe, just maybe, that's another argument for getting rid of a badly broken agency.
  
  
• Dim Witkoff: When you're ostensibly acting as mediator, it's not too easy to alienate the folks on both sides of the table, but apparently Steve Witkoff has done it. According to reporting out of Ukraine, both the Ukrainian and Russian governments are sick of dealing with him, as they don't think he understands the issues involved in their negotiations, or that he really actually cares about making progress (both sides say he seems to care more about trying fancy restaurants). And note that the only reason Witkoff is working on Russia-Ukraine right now is because the Iranians and the Saudis already got tired of dealing with him.
  
  
• Fox Tales: Fox "News" usually tries to downplay or ignore bad news for Trump. That includes bad polls, even if those bad polls are conducted by Fox. That said, polls cost money. And Fox's polls are the outlet's best (and kind of only) claim to being an actual news source. So, the bad polls are increasingly finding their way onto Fox's airwaves, among them a recent poll where 63% of respondents said that Trump made the economy worse. That same poll also gave the Democrats the edge on virtually every issue, as well as on the generic ballot, on enthusiasm and on party identification. Trump is furious about Fox's disloyalty, and yesterday told reporters:

  Fox has the worst, I think, Fox has frankly the worst polls in the whole business. I think they should have gotten rid of their pollsters years ago. They've been calling me wrong for ten years. But my polls have been very good. I get good polls. I get good everything.

  Do you think he really believes his polls are very good? Maybe Natalie Harp only shows him cooked data, or something like that? Because we struggle to think of a single good poll for Trump in the last 6 months, much less a bunch of them. Oh, and by the way, even the Foxers lambasted the alleged ban on CNN, MS NOW and Politico.
  
  
• Trump Doesn't Sell: This story is actually NOT from the past week, but it's something of a complement to the Fox item. A couple of months ago, The New York Times did a study of 12 right-wing influencers. The paper found that ratings, across the various platforms, are cratering. For example, the 12 influencers combined for over 100 million YouTube views the month Trump was re-inaugurated; now they are down to less than 50 million a month. Views on eX-Twitter (600 million to 140 million) and Rumble (40 million to 12 million) have seen similarly steep declines. Podcasts listens actually rose from 10 million to 20 million by the end of last year, but are now back to 10 million.
  
  The Times ascribes this to two things. First, even among the faithful, Trump's shtick has gotten old. It's also increasingly irrelevant, as he'll be out of office in a little over 2 years, and he is likely to spend the latter part of his term as the lamest of lame ducks. Second, many right-wing listeners have turned against Trump, either entirely, or on key issues like fuel prices. The right-wing influencers are happy to pander, but that's not easy to do when some listeners want anger and rage that goes in one direction, and others want anger and rage that goes in the polar opposite direction.

We don't know if the fall of the House of MAGA has begun, or if this is just a temporary dip. But it's certainly possible that it really has begun, since Trump's popularity and power also declined around this time during v1.0, and this time, no matter what happens, he can't make a return.

There is one thing we do know, however: We are very glad we are not running for office as a Republican right now. That is a near-impossible task in this environment. (Z)

Mike Johnson Is Having Trouble Herding the Cats

Donald Trump is not the only one who's got trouble in paradise. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) also has use for some extra aspirin these days.

To start, there's the surprise vote to impeach Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), who hate Hegseth, hates Donald Trump, and doesn't much care for Johnson, sprung that on the House at the last minute, using parliamentary trickery to force a vote. Massie did that because the last time he tried to hold the administration's feet to the fire (the Epstein files vote), Johnson shut down the House for 3 weeks in a desperate (and ultimately unsuccessful) effort to protect the man who gives him his marching orders.

Massie was right to be worried about more shenanigans, but he apparently wasn't quite "the last minute" enough to actually avoid them. Johnson sent the House home a day early, so as to push the impeachment vote to November. And by "November," we mean "November 9." So, after the elections.

The Speaker's thinking here is obvious: He does not want to force his members to cast a vote that equates to either: (1) I defied the president or (2) I support the unpopular war in Iran. That said, the Democrats will still get a couple of talking points out of this. The first is: "Johnson gave the House 6 weeks off rather than displease his Dear Leader, Donald Trump." And the second is: "Everyone agrees that some sort of action on AI cannot wait. But the Speaker would prefer to placate the President, even if it puts Americans (and their children) at risk."

Meanwhile, they haven't had regular fisticuffs in the halls of Congress since the antebellum era. However, the House Republican Conference very nearly brought that proud tradition back to life this week. With time before the elections running out (in part due to fleeing town a day early), Johnson called for a late-night meeting of the leaders of the five main factions among House Republicans. GOPers have taken to calling those factions the "five families," like the mafia families that run New York. How... delightful.

Anyhow, the purpose of the meeting was to discuss a temporary suspension of the federal gas tax. Some GOP members want to give Americans a little relief, though only until November 15 or so (for some "unknown" reason). Leading the charge was House Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-MD), with substantial backing from Rep. Clay Higgins (R-LA). Opposing the move was House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Sam Graves (R-MO), who came to meeting armed with printouts of a tweet from Harris in which he denounced the same exact scheme when Joe Biden proposed it in 2022. Very quickly, Don Tattaglia and Don Barzini Harris and Higgins became irate, while Don Corleone Graves refused to back down. Tables were pounded, curse words were uttered, and physical violence was threatened. Eventually, Harris and Higgins stormed out. They will not get their gas-tax holiday, of course.

Naturally, if you start with a conference where there's no margin for error and nearly every member can be a dealbreaker, and then you mix in a speaker who is only mediocre, and you add the pressure cooker of "We may only have a few more months in the majority, and for most of those months we won't even be in session," this is pretty much what you get. (Z)

This Week in Schadenfreude: Come on down to South America, Meet Some Friends of Mine

Since we've got a theme going of Donald Trump getting poked in the eye, let's stick with that. Trump will most certainly go after private entities that he has power over, which mostly means: (1) media outlets that need White House access, (2) any company with a pending merger that needs to be approved by the Department of "Justice," and (3) any person, company or institution that receives government grants or contracts.

The problem for the administration is that there are plenty of entities that are not included in any of those three lists, and who are free to behave as if the United States actually does have a Bill of Rights. Among those entities is TSFKASP. That is short for "The Show Formerly Known as South Park." And the reason that they are formerly known by that name is that, with the debut of the new, 29th season, the program is now known as South America.

What is the gag here? Well, it's probably easiest to just quote from the press release that creators Trey Parker and Matt Stone used to announce the name change:

Inspired by the bravery and patriotism of Apple and Google, we are changing the name of South Park to SOUTH AMERICA. We especially want to thank our parent company Paramount—a Skydance Capitulation.

The debut episode of the new season had the (now usual) naked Donald Trump character (complete with small... hands), as well as many gags at the expense of Lake Ontario/Lake America, New Mexico/New America and the Gulf of Mexico/Gulf of America.

If Trump finds out about the mockery, he may well denounce the show's creators as "Dumbocrats" or "biased liberals," or the like. However, the truth—and this is hardly a secret—is that Parker and Stone are more libertarian than anything else. And, by temperament, they are actually more likely to turn their sights on liberals than on conservatives. In particular, they really loathe anything that comes within a country mile of political correctness. But they also really loathe Trump, in substantial part because of his penchant for censorship.

Another place which should be reasonably Trump-friendly territory is the NFL. After all, the owners of the teams are all billionaires, and several of them are outspoken Trumpers. Indeed, the Jets' owner, Woody Johnson, served as an ambassador during the first Trump administration. A lot of the players are Trumpy, and so are a lot of the fans.

Canada, of course, does not have an NFL team. They could certainly have the Bears for the asking, but they have wisely chosen not to ask. Consequently, many Canadian fans in Quebec have adopted the Buffalo Bills as "their" NFL team, while many Canadian fans in Ontario have adopted either the Bills or the Detroit Lions.

As chance would have it, the Lions played the Bills, in Buffalo, on Thursday night of this week. And while the general consensus in Canada is "don't support anything American," some fans there know the NFL teams had nothing to do with Trump's anti-Canada policies and rhetoric. Meanwhile, the Bills and Lions both appreciate fans sticking it out, despite plenty of motivation to jump ship. So, before the game on Thursday, the Bills arranged for a performance of "O, Canada!" right before "The Star Spangled Banner."

It is not customary to perform "O, Canada!" at American sporting events, unless one of the teams is Canadian. In fact, it's basically unheard of when both participating teams are American. Folks on the right perceived the gesture as, in substantial part, a middle finger to Trump. Folks on the left perceived the gesture as, in substantial part, a middle finger to Trump. And both are right. Who said bipartisanship was dead? (Z)

This Week in Freudenfreude: The Good Books

A major new meta-study out of Cambridge this week affirms what most people surely already knew intuitively: Reading is good for your health.

And, by "health," they don't mean just mental health, or emotional health or physical health. They mean "all of the above." Mentally, among other things, reading helps combat depression. Emotionally, reading causes people to develop empathy. Physically, reading combats dementia and Alzheimer's diseases, with some studies suggesting up to a 33% reduction in risk for regular readers.

It does not appear to matter all that much what people read, as long as they read regularly and give the task their full attention. Romance novels, comic books, histories, great literature, etc. all appear to have the same salubrious effects. They do not seem to have tested readers of political blogs; presumably the enormous benefits therein are so well-known and so well-established that it was not necessary to beat a dead horse.

That's a pretty brief freudenfreude, but it's a story we thought worth a mention. Have a good (rest of your) weekend, all! (Z)

Today's Senate Polls

Kansas in play? Really? REALLY? Yeah, maybe.

There have been four major polls of the race, they've all been fairly close (biggest gap, Marshall +5), and this is the first one that is not by a partisan house. As we've pointed out many times, Kansas does have a Democratic governor. Meanwhile, Kansans are being hit hard by the tariffs, not to mention increased fertilizer prices. And Roger Marshall has the charisma of wallpaper paste.

If Adam Hamilton and James Talarico both win, then Democrats across the nation are going to decide that the key to the White House is to nominate a vocal, professing Christian. And they might not be wrong about that. If that is indeed the sentiment, it favors Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY), who is probably the most outwardly religious of the major Democratic presidential contenders.

State	Democrat	D %	Republican	R %	Start	End	Pollster
Kansas	Adam Hamilton	45%	Roger Marshall	43%	Sep 15	Sep 16	Emerson Coll.

* Denotes incumbent

Let's step back for a second to compare our maps for Sep. 19, 2022 and Sep. 19, 2026:

In particular, compare the Midwest. Is there a hint of how things are going there? What about the South (NC, GA, LA, TX)? Check back on Nov. 4 to get our report. Note that you can easily go back to the current datebin 2022 (last midterm), 2020 (last time this Senate class was up), and 2014 by clicking the links in the legend. You can go to other years by editing the URL. (Z & V)

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