Two Down... Two to Go?

The ranks of the House of Representatives got a little thinner yesterday, as there were two resignations in the span of just a couple of hours.

First up, and a surprise to absolutely nobody who's been paying attention for the last few days, was Eric Swalwell, who—just one week ago—was the representative for CA-14 (just east and south of San Francisco) and the leading Democrat in the race to become California's next governor. But thanks to the many and varied claims of sexual abuse made against him, he ceased to be a gubernatorial candidate on Sunday. And yesterday, Swalwell ceased to be a member of Congress, as he tendered his resignation from that body.

As we have undoubtedly pointed out before, only a small percentage of sexual assault claims—less than 10%—made by women turn out to be false. That means that if there's just one woman claiming to have been victimized, it's at least possible, albeit definitely not probable, that it's a tall tale. But once the number of accusers begins to climb, those odds grow vanishingly small. In Swalwell's case, there are not only four accusers, but there's much evidence that his behavior has been whispered about for years. And given that he certainly looks to be guilty, it's remarkable that he thought he could subject himself to one of the most intense spotlights in America—the one trained on California gubernatorial candidates—and could escape unscathed. That said, Cesar Chavez, Jimmy Savile, Donald Trump and many others, got away with it for decades (or more). So, maybe it isn't so remarkable that Swalwell thought he was bulletproof.

The second resignation yesterday was also courtesy of an absolute lecher. Republican Tony Gonzales, soon to be the former representative for TX-23 (West Texas), has been connected to at least two affairs with his staffers, one of whom took her own life. The clock was ticking on him anyhow, and yesterday, he finally bowed to reality and said he would join Swalwell in the unemployment line.

Regardless of how the other members of the House feel about these two men—and there is abundant evidence that most of their soon-to-be-former colleagues found the behavior of Swalwell and Gonzales to be repellent—the political maneuvering here could not be more plain. The Democrats want to use Jeffrey Epstein as a cudgel against Donald Trump and his party in the midterms. That is difficult to do while the blue team has its very own (accused) rapist within its ranks. So, they very obviously made it clear to Swalwell that if he did not fall on his sword pronto, he would have the ignominy of being expelled, probably within the week. There's no penalty to being expelled (you don't lose your pension, for example), but it's embarrassing, and Swalwell decided he didn't want to go through that.

At that point, the GOP had two sexual predators in its ranks that the members had failed to act on—Gonzales and Trump—and that was an extra-bad look, given how quickly the Democrats moved to get rid of Swalwell. There isn't too much that the red team is going to do about Trump, but they could certainly lean on Gonzales, who was even further down the path toward expulsion than Swalwell was, by virtue of having already been investigated by the House Ethics Committee. Undoubtedly under enormous pressure, and perhaps with some remaining loyalty to the GOP brand, Gonzales made the same choice as Swalwell did, and jumped ship before he could be thrown overboard.

But while these two men might be gone, we probably haven't reached the end of the resignations (or, failing that, expulsions). Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-FL) is also pretty far along the path to being booted out, having already been investigated by the Ethics Committee for many and numerous financial misdeeds. Rep. Cory Mills (R-FL) is in hot water over several things, including his own financial misdeeds, a domestic violence charge, and some sexual misconduct, including sending out revenge porn. They might not survive the month, especially since if the members of the House vote to expel them both, then the two parties are both rid of an anchor around their respective necks, while still maintaining the same partisan balance in the House.

With Swalwell and Gonzales gone, the party balance in the House is 216 R, 213 D, 1 I, with that I being the formerly Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley (CA). There will likely be special elections for both of the now-vacant seats, with the respective governors making that happen as fast as is allowable under law. However, neither seat will be filled until late summer/early fall. On Thursday, the good people of NJ-11 will almost certainly pick Democrat Analilia Mejia to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ), making it 216 R, 214 D, 1 I. If the two Floridians go, that will effectively be a wash, pushing it to 215 R, 213 D, 1 I.

There are no other currently scheduled changes in membership until the seat left vacant by the death of Republican Doug LaMalfa is filled, probably on August 4 (that's the date of the runoff). His now-former district, CA-01, is R+12, which means it should be safe GOP. But if somehow, some way, control of the House majority hinges on that seat (and it would potentially only take one more R or I departure), all bets are off. For now, however, the conclusion is the same as with all of these kinds of items: Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has virtually no margin of error to work with right now, which will not make life easy if and when he tries to ram a reconciliation bill through the House.

And to round this out, we are going to add this comment from (L), who uses that nom-de-plume when writing as a staffer, but—just like the VP is a member of both the executive and legislative branches—is also a reader, and uses A.R. in Los Angeles when speaking in that capacity. This is definitely from A.R.:

From a woman's perspective, this pattern is eerily familiar. A powerful man initiates contact with a much younger woman who's just getting started in her professional career. He dangles the prospect of employment and pretends to be interested in her professional goals. Then, he makes it sexual and he starts demanding attention and exchanges of nude photos and maybe even sexual favors. He reduces her to an object that he uses for his gratification and knows that she'll keep quiet because he's powerful and can make or break her career. And since she believes she's alone and no one would believe her if she came forward anyway, she just deflects, goes along and tries to minimize the damage as much as possible.

In the case of Tony Gonzales, it ended tragically when one of the women he was allegedly harassing set herself on fire. But the Republicans weren't interested in holding him accountable until there was a Democrat to match. And they certainly weren't talking about Cory Mills until there were two Democrats to kick out.

On the other hand, Swalwell's Democratic gubernatorial campaign was over as soon as the credible accusations became public. And I'm hopeful that it's not because of the "climate." Instead, it's a recognition, at least by those who understand what discrimination against women actually looks like, that this is the abuse of power to demean and subjugate women. Let's set aside the rape allegations and just focus on the grooming text messages that turned sexual. A powerful Congressman is texting a 20-something—who is looking for her first job—lewd photos and messages. That is textbook sexual harassment and that alone is disqualifying. It's the imbalance of power that he's taking advantage of: "That swimsuit. Fuck." I haven't heard him deny that gem.

I'm proud of the SEIU and the teachers' union who acted so quickly to withdraw their support, as well as the elected officials who called on him to step down. That stands in stark contrast to the anemic response by Republicans to allegations not only against other representatives and cabinet officials like Pete Hegseth, but against Donald Trump himself.

As to the questions of why this is coming out now, this is not unlike the allegations against Brett Kavanaugh or other powerful men who suddenly seem likely to be elevated to even greater positions of power. Someone had to be first, and then the dam broke when each realized they weren't alone. I'm grateful they had the courage to come forward now. And the fact that Swalwell's staff quit so quickly indicates to me that they were not all that surprised by these revelations.

Swalwell's attempts to reach out to each of his accusers with job offers when he announced his campaign for governor seems like an obvious attempt to head off any accusations and an admission of guilt. And sending two of the women cease and desist letters to intimidate them into shutting up doesn't exactly help his cause either. It smacks of the arrogance of a man who's gotten away with this behavior for too long.

How powerful men treat women is the canary in the coal mine for all kinds of other unethical and corrupt behavior. They need to know it won't be tolerated and, so far, only one political party is willing to hold their own accountable, or at least not be dragged kicking and screaming to sometimes do the right thing.

Hear, hear! (Z)

Donald Trump, Uniter of the Faiths

You may have heard about a little thing called the Reformation. After all, it was in all the papers. Since that time, Protestants and Roman Catholics have sometimes had trouble getting along, whether we're talking the 30 Years War, or The Troubles, or a long list of other unpleasantries. This weekend, however, Donald Trump managed to bring the two sides together. This was not exactly what he planned, however, as the thing they are in agreement upon is "Donald Trump is an a**hole."

Let's start with the Catholics. Pope Leo XIV is no fan of violent war in the Middle East, and has spoken up several times in the past few weeks in response to the Iran fiasco. Leo might just have picked this up from his predecessor Francis, who was also not a fan of violent war in the Middle East, and who also spoke up. Francis might just have gotten this from his predecessor, Benedict XIV, who—wait for it—did not like violent war in the Middle East, and was happy to share that view with the world. Benedict probably learned from his predecessor, John Paul II, who was opposed to violent war in the Middle East, and who piped up anytime there was such a war going on. Here is a speech he gave in 2003, condemning the Iraq War, and here is a prayer he delivered in 1980, condemning the then-ongoing violence in Iran.

Point is, Leo is right in step with the popes of the 21st century. Still, Trump is persuaded that what is going on here is personal, and that Leo would not be saying what he's saying, if it was some president other than Trump who was committing war crimes in Iran. And so, Trump got on his sacrilegious social media site to unspool another unhinged masterpiece, aimed squarely at the current Bishop of Rome:

Pope Leo is WEAK on Crime, and terrible for Foreign Policy. He talks about "fear" of the Trump Administration, but doesn't mention the FEAR that the Catholic Church, and all other Christian Organizations, had during COVID when they were arresting priests, ministers, and everybody else, for holding Church Services, even when going outside, and being ten and even twenty feet apart. I like his brother Louis much better than I like him, because Louis is all MAGA. He gets it, and Leo doesn't! I don't want a Pope who thinks it's OK for Iran to have a Nuclear Weapon. I don't want a Pope who thinks it's terrible that America attacked Venezuela, a Country that was sending massive amounts of Drugs into the United States and, even worse, emptying their prisons, including murderers, drug dealers, and killers, into our Country. And I don't want a Pope who criticizes the President of the United States because I'm doing exactly what I was elected, IN A LANDSLIDE, to do, setting Record Low Numbers in Crime, and creating the Greatest Stock Market in History. Leo should be thankful because, as everyone knows, he was a shocking surprise. He wasn't on any list to be Pope, and was only put there by the Church because he was an American, and they thought that would be the best way to deal with President Donald J. Trump. If I wasn't in the White House, Leo wouldn't be in the Vatican. Unfortunately, Leo's Weak on Crime, Weak on Nuclear Weapons, does not sit well with me, nor does the fact that he meets with Obama Sympathizers like David Axelrod, a LOSER from the Left, who is one of those who wanted churchgoers and clerics to be arrested. Leo should get his act together as Pope, use Common Sense, stop catering to the Radical Left, and focus on being a Great Pope, not a Politician. It's hurting him very badly and, more importantly, it's hurting the Catholic Church! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Admittedly, it is like shooting fish in a barrel, but let's do a little light fisking of Trump's message:

• Leo cannot be "WEAK on Crime," as he does not have a crime policy nor an enforcement apparatus. Unless you count "Thou shalt not steal" and "say 20 Hail Marys" as a crime policy.
  
  
• The Catholic Church did not arrest priests and ministers during the pandemic. Nor did anyone else.
  
  
• The difference between Leo and Louis is that one of them is the spiritual leader of 1.4 billion people and the other one is just a random guy in Florida.
  
  
• The Pope does not think it is OK for Iran to have a nuclear weapon. You would struggle to find a single person outside of Iran who thinks that.
  
  
• Trump was not elected "IN A LANDSLIDE" and no matter how many times he claims otherwise, it does not make it so.
  
  
• Leo "wasn't on any list to be Pope"? The evidence suggests he was on at least one list, and it just so happened to be the most important one.
  
  
• The leader of Roman Catholicism, one of the most doctrinally-conservative religions in the world, is "radical left"? Ok, then. What, then, are the REAL pinko religious types, like the Unitarians?

We understand that Trump fights whatever "enemy" he perceives, no matter who they might be. But the fact is that the best-case scenario for him here is that MAGA Catholics find a way they can support both their spiritual leader and their political leader, even despite the obvious bad behavior from Trump. We don't believe there is anyone who will say, "Well, I can't be a Catholic and also MAGA anymore, so I choose MAGA." We do believe there are people who might say, "Well, I can't be a Catholic and also MAGA anymore, so I choose the Church."

Some of MAGAworld tried to line up behind Trump's obvious anti-Catholicism. For example, Fox entertainer Sean Hannity suggested that Leo isn't actually familiar with the content of the Bible. After all, observed the noted theologian Hannity, there are wars in the Bible, so war must be a good thing. Perhaps someone should point out to him that the Bible also has incest, rape and murder. All good things, right Sean? Similarly, hardcore MAGA grifter Hal Lambert went on CNN to allege that this is all a vast Chicago conspiracy between the Chicago-born pope, and the one-time-Chicago-resident Barack Obama. Somehow he forgot to get that Cubs billy goat in there.

Leo, for his part, is unimpressed by all of this, and said yesterday that Trump does not understand the Gospel (true), and that the Bible very clearly says "Blessed are the peacemakers," and that he (Leo) is not afraid of the President. In short, what Leo was saying, albeit in very diplomatic language, is osculum meum asinum.

But again, the point here is that Trump is a unifier. That is because, not too long after insulting the Pope (and, by extension, all Catholics), he managed to infuriate Protestants (particularly evangelicals) with this posting:

Trump's affinity for AI slop, as long as he's the central and heroic figure, is really kind of remarkable. This piece feels like what you would get if you brought Norman Rockwell back to life, and then had him drop acid. For example, what exactly is that figure above Trump's head and to the right? A valkyrie? Voltron? The Green Goblin?

Predictably—well, predictably to everyone except Trump, apparently—many Christians, especially evangelicals, found the Trump-as-Jesus image to be blasphemous, and they blasted him (blaphsted him?) for it. It's always interesting to see where these followers of Jesus draw the line. We know that Jesus' dad is not a big fan of graven images, but if you chatted with Jesus himself, and said: "I started a violent war in the Middle East... and oh, I also shared a picture where I am made to look like you," we have a pretty good idea of which one the Lamb of God would be more upset about. And it's NOT the one that has the evangelicals in a tizzy.

The response to all of this has not been good. A far-from-exhaustive list of folks who have slammed Trump, for one reason or another, since his Mephistophelian posting spree, includes the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, thousands of Catholics on reddit, Trump supporter and Fox commentator Bishop Robert Barron, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), conservative podcaster Riley Gaines, Marjorie Taylor Greene, evangelical writer Megan Basham and outspoken pro-Trump pastor Joel Webbon. Webbon has gone so far as to declare that Trump is "possessed by demons." To which we say: "You just now noticed?"

In any event, Trump refused to apologize to the Pope. Either the President doesn't think he needs Catholic support, or he doesn't think that crapping on the Vicar of Christ will actually cause Catholics to abandon MAGA. On the other hand, Trump offered up a ridiculous explanation for the AI Image ("I thought it was me as a doctor") and then deleted it from his social media accounts. We suppose we'll see if that undoes the damage. (Z)

Political Bytes: Just the Facts, Ma'am

It was actually a pretty slow weekend, overall, because Eric Swalwell pushed most everything else off the page.

End of an Era: We meant to get to this last week, but after 60 years, the CIA will no longer produce the much-beloved CIA Factbook, which was simultaneously an atlas and a valuable piece of propaganda (since it showed the world, particularly the Russkies, how good the CIA is at collecting information). The explanation for discontinuing the book: "Our mission has changed."

Our Take: Maybe this work is no longer needed in a world with the Internet. Still, this administration takes every opportunity to show its disdain for knowledge.

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Did They Check with Billy Joel?: Donald Trump may live in Florida now, but his heart's still in New York City. Meanwhile, he is desperately casting about for monumental projects that will allow him to leave his stamp on the world before he's done. And so, as part of plans to rebuild iconic Penn Station (and presumably add his name), he is also toying with a plan to tear down Madison Square Garden and rebuild it... somewhere else. The owner of MSG, James Dolan, is not enthused, and that's before we talk about the billion-dollar price tag.

Our Take: Maybe Trump can tear down Wrigley Field, the Golden Gate Bridge, Disneyland, mom and apple pie while he is at it. More evidence that the man responsible for this eyesore has no respect for tradition:

Seriously, who picks THAT font for that purpose? If you just have to slap a label on the wall, use a somewhat understated and historic-feeling font with some serifs. Definitely not a script font, which makes it look like a cheap hotel. Oh, wait...

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Another Podcast: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is the latest member of the Trump administration/entourage to announce a podcast, his will address the "lies" that are making America sick.

Our Take: We are confident the podcast will be chock-full of lies.

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Fly Your Flag: The Trump administration was on the losing end of a lawsuit (again) and has been ordered to restore the rainbow flag at Stonewall National Monument in New York City.

Our Take: We wonder what Samuel Alito, who loves political flags, but hates gays, thinks about this.

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On the Move: The Cook Political Report released its latest assessment of the Senate races, and made four moves, all of them in a Democratic direction. North Carolina (open; being vacated by Thom Tillis, R) and Georgia (Jon Ossoff, D) moved from "Toss up" to "Lean D." Ohio (Jon Husted, R) moved from "Lean R" to "Toss Up." And Nebraska (Pete Ricketts, R) moved from "Solid R" to "Lean R."

Our Take: The Republicans are still the favorite to hold the Senate in November, but we are inching closer and closer to coin-flip territory.

And that's the way it is. (Z)

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