The SHAME of Donald Trump

Sit back, kids, because it's story time.

This item was around halfway done when (Z) was struck by the ill effects of Mounjaro on Thursday evening. You can read more about that here, if you haven't already seen the note, and you're interested. And thanks, incidentally, to all the readers who sent kind well wishes!

By Saturday, (Z) had bounced back enough to continue work on the Friday post, with the notion that it would just become the Sunday post. He had an event to attend on Saturday evening, but wrote another 20% or so of this item before it was time to get ready to leave. While that process was underway, and about 15 minutes before it was necessary to head out, the power went out. (Z) vaguely remembered paying the electric bill, which is due every 2 months in L.A., but who can really be certain if a payment like that was 7 weeks ago or 11 weeks ago? That said, LADWP is pretty bleeding-heart about overdue electric bills, and knocks on the door before they actually shut the power off, and there was no knock. So, it probably wasn't an unpaid bill (and, in fact, the bill is indeed paid up).

Anyhow, (Z) went outside to ascertain the extent of the problem. If it's just his apartment, that is one kind of problem. If it's his whole apartment building, that's a different kind of problem (and the worst option). If it's the whole block, or some other more-than-one-apartment-building total, that's a third kind of problem (and the best option). The reason that bigger is better here is that a larger-scale outage is LADWP's problem, and they tend to get on those fast. If it's just the one building, or the one apartment, then it's a landlord problem. And landlords, including this one, tend to be rather less quick to provide service. Plus, (Z)'s landlords are observant Jews, and this was a couple of hours before official sundown.

As it turns out, it was the whole building—the worst option. For reasons that we will simply have to explain this Friday, because we've put it off long enough (teaser alert!), leaving with the apartment dark was not an option. But the other residents of the building are exceedingly un-handy. So, while (Z) is hardly an electrician, he was also the only one with any hope of somehow fixing things.

Meanwhile—and this should not be relevant, but it is—the landlord re-paved the carports last week, a task that took the workers the entire week. Why this was done was unknown; the carports were in OK shape, and landlords do not tend to make expensive repairs that are not utterly necessary. Probably the city of L.A. laid down the law. Anyhow, (Z) was completely incapacitated on Friday (due to Mounjaro), and so never went outside on the day that the workers poured the concrete. All he knows is that by Saturday, the concrete was set, and an unconnected hose the workers had used for some reason (to mix the concrete?) was left sitting in the still-vacant carports.

What happened—in the sort of sequence of events that makes people say "only in L.A."—is that a presumably unhomed person in a red track suit happened by, and saw the hose. He decided that the entire carport area needed a good hosing down (despite the fact that it was brand-new, very clean concrete). So, he got out the nozzle he carries with him in his backpack, and got to work. It is very odd that someone would be carrying a hose nozzle with them, given that backpack space is presumably precious. However, one has to imagine that choice, and the compulsion to hose down apartment carports for no good reason, are probably related.

The issue, from the point of view of someone who likes to make things "clean," is that—again—the carports weren't at all dirty. On the other hand, the ancient breakers and meters and other electrical equipment on the wall above parking space #5 are VERY dusty. Or, at least that area WAS dusty, until it got a good hosing down courtesy of Mr. Track Suit.

That is what killed the power, of course. Being in a hurry, (Z) pieced it all together with all due haste, and figured out that the master breaker had been tripped. So, he switched it back on, and lights reappeared across the apartment building. That was enough to say "Problem solved!" and so off to the event he went.

As it turns out, it wasn't quite that simple. (Z) had seen enough to see that the kitchen and living room fixtures had come back on, but he hadn't bothered to return and turn his computer back on. He got home from the event around 11:00, which was certainly enough time to do the remaining work on the Sunday post. But, as it turned out, at least two of the five circuits in the apartment, and possibly three, were not functioning.

This actually took a while to diagnose, because it initially looked like the problem was related to a power strip that was acting up. After all, it's common for a single circuit to go out, and sometimes they all go out, but half of them (give or take) is pretty rare. Once it was clear that was the case, it took a fair bit of testing to ascertain exactly which outlets were hot, and which ones were not. Then, it was necessary to make an emergency trip to the drug store. No, not for THAT. For extension cords. The computer had to be powered via the working outlet in the bathroom, and the refrigerator had to be powered via the working outlet in the dining room. All of this late-night troubleshooting and unexpected shopping took around 3 hours, and left an already-not-100% (Z) pretty sore. So, with the clock having struck 2:00 a.m. or so, the towel was thrown in.

We pass along this somewhat detailed story for four reasons. First, the California homelessness problem has been exaggerated by some people, mostly for political effect. That said, it does exist, and "unusual" events like this one do happen. Given human cognitive biases, "unusual" events loom large in the memory, and can cause people to perceive a problem as being bigger than it really is. Second, some (maybe many) readers may find the story entertaining or interesting. Third, the story explains why the Sunday posting went the way of the dodo. Fourth, the story explains why the rest of this item reads like it was written across three different days—because it was.

And now we move on to the latest desperate-and-kind-of-sad act from Donald Trump, which was "recent news" when we first started this piece. As everyone surely knows by now, last Thursday, Trump dusted off one of the small handful of items in his bag of tricks, and signed an executive order decreeing that Lake Ontario is now "Lake America." He then celebrated by posting a bunch of memes to his social media platform for imperialists, including a particularly weird AI-generated one in which he kicks over the (real) Lake Ontario sign, then plants a Lake America sign, and then dances to the first few bars of "Y.M.C.A."

We've been through this before, of course, but we'll remind readers that Trump's power to rename things unilaterally is pretty limited. An executive order compels action from executive agencies, so he can compel the various agencies under his control to update their maps, their databases, etc. He can also insist that Republican politicians "honor" the new name, which they probably will because it's not worth getting into a pi**ing contest with Trump over. And Trump can lean on corporations who want to remain in his good graces. You know, something along the lines of: "That's a nice corporation ya got there. Be a shame if a bunch of oversight happened to it." Google has already bowed to the XO, and updated its maps, while the administration is still twisting arms over at Apple. As chance would have it, Monday was the last day on the job for the generally obeisant Apple CEO Tim Cook. New CEO John Ternus might be looking to make a statement as he takes the reins, though that statement could go in either direction.

Now, let us run down some of the reasons this was an incredibly foolish move:

• Unpopular: The last time Trump pulled this exact stunt, with the so-called "Gulf of America," it went over like a lead Zeppelin. Polls, like this one from Marquette, consistently showed that around 30% of Americans liked the idea, around 70% disliked it. By and large, in politics, you don't want to do things that aggravate 2+ voters for every 1 voter that is pleased. And we see no reason to think that Lake America will be any more popular than the Gulf of America.
  
  
• All Politics Is Local...: The name of a particular Great Lake is probably not a major point of pride in, say, Nevada. But it is in the states that border on the Great Lakes. Like, say, Ohio, which has a key U.S. Senate race this year. Or, say, Michigan, which also has a key U.S. Senate race this year. This gives the Democrats running in those (and other) races a free cudgel to use against their Republican opponents. And the Republican opponent gets to choose between: (1) aggravating "local pride" voters or (2) aggravating MAGA voters. Abdul El-Sayed (D) in Michigan, for example, is already turning the screws on Mike Rogers (R). Rogers is trying desperately to avoid having to comment.
  
  
• ...Well, Except When It's National: The Democrats have quite the narrative available to them that while the American people are being hit hard by inflation and high gas prices, Trump is focused on trivialities and personal score-settling. There's the all-important White House ballroom, and the Arc de Trump, and the Kennedy Center, and the Presidential Walk of Fame, and now there's Lake America. It took mere minutes after the XO was released for the official eX-Twitter account of the House Democrats to start flogging this angle: "It's too expensive to live and Donald Trump is renaming lakes."
  
  
• Price Tag: Related to "Americans are suffering" and Trump's priorities, it's not clear exactly how aggressive the federal government will be in implementing the change. The cost estimates for renaming the Gulf of Mexico ranged from a couple of million dollars to a couple of billion dollars. Hard to know what the real answer is, or whether it costs more or less to rename a sea as opposed to a lake. However, it won't cost zero to rename Lake Ontario in federal databases, etc., and that's money that is not going to, say, school lunches. So, the line goes something like, "I guess vanity renaming projects are more worthwhile than healthcare for the rural poor."
  
  
• The Art of the Deal: Does Trump actually not know Business 101, or does he merely ignore those lessons because of his ego? We honestly don't know. Whatever the case may be, this stunt was about the worst possible thing he could do if he is trying to "win" his trade war with Canada. The position of Trump's opponent, PM Mark Carney, is weakest if Canadians are divided. Trying to rename the lake, and thus infuriating most Canadians, has the exact opposite effect.
  
  
• Culture War: Trump, of course, ordered that Denali be renamed as Mt. McKinley. Like "Denali," "Ontario" is a Native American word for a geographical feature (from Koyukon and Wendat, respectively). At very least, this is another poke in the eye for Native American voters. Alaska, which has the highest percentage of Native American voters, also has a key U.S. Senate race this year. Oh, and the Democrats' candidate just so happens to be Native American (Mary Peltola is Yup'ik, to be precise). At most, this incident will serve as a general reminder to non-white voters that Trump doesn't have much use for their culture.
  
  
• Pathetic: Predictably, this move made Trump the butt of many jokes. Roughly 100 million people took notice that if you replace "Ontario" with "America," then the old H-O-M-E-S mnemonic for remembering the Great Lakes doesn't work anymore, but S-H-A-M-E sure does. We are surprised that we haven't seen a meme observing something along the lines of how appropriate it is that Ontario is the smallest lake. We probably just didn't look hard enough.
  
  
• Uninteresting: This might be the thing that will upset Trump most of all. When he pulled the Gulf of America stunt, it was a big story for a couple dozen news cycles, with comments, counter-comments, polls, debates, etc. But now, less than a week after the Lake America stunt, it's almost completely disappeared. We haven't been able to find so much as a single poll on the name change. Slate's Ben Jacobs, for one, argues that this is an indication that Trump is losing his one "superhuman" ability.

All of this said, the most important thing here is that it speaks to Trump's midterm "strategy," such as it is. He's clearly trying to find as many distractions as he can, so that people pay attention to the silly stuff, and maybe not so much to the really bad stuff. And hey, it kinda works. Every story about renaming the Kennedy Center is one less story about the mess in Iran. But, it's not working especially well right now, since people may think about Lake America for a day or two, but they're thinking about high grocery prices every day.

Even more obviously, and as we wrote yesterday, Trump has decided to make the midterms about him. He isn't even trying to attract voters from outside the tent; he's just doing what he did in his three presidential elections, and trying to gin up the MAGA vote as much as is possible.

Readers presumably don't need us to point out the problem here. Ginning up the MAGA base only worked well in one of Trump's elections (2024), while it barely worked in 2016, and it failed in 2020. And it's never been efficacious in elections where Trump himself was NOT on the ballot. If you then add in that Trump is very unpopular right now, and that he's slipping even with the base, then this is a recipe for disaster. As we wrote yesterday, the Republicans who ARE on the ballot know this. Democrats are praying that Trump does not figure it out. Given what we know of him, the blue team can probably rest easy. (Z)

Legal Bytes: The Majority of the Supreme Court Supports Trump's Balls

This is another item that should have run Friday, and so has been tinkered with and updated several times, over the course of several days.

Shadow Government: In a 5-4 ruling, the Supreme Court is allowing construction to proceed on Donald Trump's vanity project, the ballroom, on the location where the East Wing once stood before he unceremoniously, and without authorization, bulldozed it.

Once again, Trump has won on purely procedural grounds, with the Court majority holding that the historic preservation group that sued to stop the project lacked standing, or sufficient injury, to bring the case. Trump lost in the lower court and the Court of Appeal but finds relief on the shadow docket in an "emergency" appeal to the Supreme Court. Chief Justice John Roberts dissented along with Associate Justices Ketanji Brown Jackson, Elena Kagan and Sonia Sotomayor. Even though he had granted an administrative stay of the lower court's injunction earlier in August, Roberts wrote, "The White House is not just any building. In failing to appreciate as much, the court misconceives the plaintiff's injury, allowing the executive's likely infringement of the legislature's power of the purse and authority to regulate federal property in the District of Columbia to continue." The majority noted that it was not deciding on the legality of the project, though this ruling effectively greenlights its completion.

Our Take: If it's the People's House, but groups who are charged with preserving and protecting it can't sue, it's unclear that any person or any organization has the legal ability to stop the project. This will only embolden Trump to demolish other monuments and build more shrines to himself in the nation's capital. There was also no reason to address this on the shadow docket—Trump can point to no urgency that justifies the Court's involvement at this stage (the supposed national security issue involves below-ground construction which was not enjoined). The Court majority is once again abusing this process by allowing Trump, and only Trump, to jump the line and shortcut the normal adjudicative process to give him the result he wants without having to fully explain themselves. Add another rock to the pile of their diminishing credibility.

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Final Rule... Not So Final: As expected, the plaintiffs (23 states and the League of Women Voters) contesting the USPS rule restricting mail-in voting amended their claims and asked the district court to block the implementation of the postal service's Final Rule. Late last Thursday, U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani granted the request and issued a 14-day temporary restraining order (TRO) blocking the implementation of the rule while she considers their motion for a preliminary injunction. The hearing on that motion is September 3.

Our Take: The judge's ruling notes the various hurdles states have to navigate under this rule, including designing a ballot envelope that meets with USPS approval. The rule does not give any kind of timeline by which the postal service must render a decision on a state's ballot envelope design. Nevertheless, under the rule, no ballots will be mailed to voters or returned to clerks' offices unless the envelope meets as-yet undefined standards and states have uploaded lists of voters to a USPS portal that has yet to be created. The administration has appealed the TRO but action on that is unlikely before Talwani rules on the preliminary injunction. That will take us into mid-September and, as we have noted, North Carolina starts mailing ballots on Friday. Since Republican strategists are now saying that this rule may hurt Republicans more than Democrats, Trump's appetite for ramming this through before the midterms could be waning. And SCOTUS could bail him out by putting it on hold at least through November. It's still possible the right-wing Court majority could let it be implemented for 2028, however.

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Once Convicted, Twice Shy: Trump has been challenging his felony convictions for falsifying business records about hush payments to Stormy Daniels in both state and federal court. In federal court, a district judge once again shot down his effort to have his case moved to federal court. For the third time, the judge slammed Trump's argument that everything he did was protected by presidential immunity. Last year the Second Circuit Court of Appeals sent the case back to the judge to reconsider his ruling in light of the "important issues relevant" to the president's request, such as whether any of the evidence could be considered "official acts." Judge Alvin K. Hellerstein concluded, "There is no way that discussions regarding hush money payments to cover up the President's relations with Stormy Daniels could be an official act. An affair, or a cover-up of an affair, is not within the 'outer perimeter' of the President's official responsibilities."

Our Take: It's possible that the Second Circuit sent this back for reconsideration in anticipation of SCOTUS getting involved and to make sure the judge covered all his bases with respect to any claim of immunity. And the fact that Trump waited for two months after the immunity decision to seek to move the case to federal court is also a strike against him. We're a long way from done with this particular saga, but this is yet another setback for Trump and he remains a convicted felon.

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Age Is Just a Number... Or It Isn't: The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit unanimously struck down a South Carolina law that restricted absentee voting by age. Under the law, those over 65 could vote absentee for any reason, while anyone under 65 had to provide a valid excuse. The Court held that the restrictions discriminated on the basis of age in violation of the Twenty-Sixth Amendment and other voting rights amendments. The Court said that South Carolina could either extend no-excuse absentee voting to everyone or remove the benefit for those 65 and over.

Our Take: The 3-judge panel was composed of an Obama appointee, a Trump appointee and a George W. Bush appointee, but they split from decisions in the Fifth and Seventh Circuits, who upheld similar laws in Texas and Indiana. The Fourth Circuit looked at the law as an age-based restriction generally and not just a limit on absentee voting, as the other circuits did. We believe the Fourth Circuit has the right of it, because the Twenty-Sixth Amendment is pretty clear: The right of U.S. citizens to vote "shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or any State on account of age." Because of the split, the Supreme Court will likely weigh in at some point and, no doubt, find some novel interpretation of the word "be" from a long-lost 18th-century parchment.

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Drag City: In September 2023, Texas enacted a law, SB 12, to prohibit and criminalize "sexually oriented performances" in any commercial establishment where someone under 18 may be present. They defined "sexually oriented performance" to include a "visual performance" that "appeals to the prurient interest in sex." What "appeals to the prurient interest in sex" means is left undefined and is, apparently, whatever a law enforcement official decides it is. For the second time, U.S. District Judge David Hittner struck down the law as a violation of the First Amendment right to free speech. He originally struck it down in 2023, but was reversed by the Fifth Circuit with instructions on how to reassess it. Hittner did so and came to the same conclusion. He held that the law was so overly broad and vague that activities like "cheerleading, dancing, live theater, and other common public occurrences" could be treated as criminal violations.

Our Take: While this law doesn't explicitly mention drag shows, it was clearly designed as a drag show ban and touted as such by Texas officials, including Texas AG Ken Paxton (who knows a few things about the prurient interest—wasn't he overseas with his mistress when this passed?). The plaintiffs included a drag queen who performs as Brigitte Bandit. Hittner is a Reagan appointee and has been on the bench since 1986. He's seen this pearl-clutching a few times before and had some pointed words for those who find such activities offensive: "The solution is relatively simple... just don't go." He also astutely and reverently invoked Dolly Parton, a well-known supporter of drag shows, and pointed out that her look has been criticized as overtly sexual and offensive and arguably could run afoul of the law. Bandit, who often impersonates Parton in her show, said she would perform as the country music star on Saturday in her honor, and presumably did so. Parton had given Bandit a rhinestone guitar as a gift in 2023, the same year the ban was passed. We think Parton would be honored to be associated with a decision that upholds free speech and civil rights and, more importantly, strikes a blow to cruelty and pettiness.

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There's a Killer on the Road: Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) has refused to act on an extradition request from Gov. Tim Walz (DFL-MN) to turn over a federal immigration agent who faces assault charges for shooting a Minnesota resident in his front yard and then lying about it to authorities. Christian Castro had been in a Texas jail and the governor had 90 days (until Thursday, August 27) to act on the request or else Castro would have to be released. Abbott did nothing and Castro was released late Thursday. Minnesota sued in federal court, but the judge denied the request to compel Abbott to act on the extradition request. The Court found that the law does not require the governor to act within those 90 days and there was no evidence that his inaction was in bad faith. As a result, Castro is now at large and may not face charges in Minnesota.

Our Take: Abbott needs to learn to pick his battles, especially during election season. Playing politics with routine extradition requests from other states of criminal defendants could cause some serious problems for him. Governors rely on cooperation between states for all myriad of things. If Abbott is declaring war on states with Democratic governors, that could open up many cans of worms. The judge in this case is a Trump appointee, but he is likely correct that the law does not anticipate this kind of deliberate recalcitrance by the governor, so his hands were tied. Castro is a federal agent and there is some question whether he can face state criminal charges, but that is for the federal government, not Abbott, to challenge. His gubernatorial opponent, Gina Hinojosa, just might create an ad on the subject: "Abbott claims he's for law and order, but he releases armed and dangerous criminals onto our streets to terrorize our communities."

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What'd I Ever Do to Deserve Such Treatment?: Immigration agents took the father of a sailor aboard the USS Lincoln into custody on Saturday, shortly after the sailor posted on Facebook about the dangerous and inhumane conditions on board. Joshua Aviles posted that he has been working nonstop 12-hour days since they left port in San Diego. The ship had not had a single day in port for over 9 months and the supply shortages of basic necessities like food and clean water are well-documented. On the day he posted on Facebook, ICE agents arrested his father, Luis Manuel Aviles, a 19-year legal resident with a valid work permit. An immigration judge dismissed the case on Monday and Aviles was released shortly after.

Our Take: The fact that the elder Aviles was taken into custody the same day his son blew the whistle on some horrific conditions on board the ship, and then his case was immediately dismissed, sure smacks of retaliation and intimidation to us. So much for supporting our troops. As we note above, this administration just seems to be openly operating like the mob now. "Nice family. A man should take care, see that nothing happens to 'em."

More soon. There's always more. (L)

Of Course It Was Him

Well, we're kind of up against it, both in terms of time, and in terms of the "reasonable" word count we aspire to (5,000-6,000 words). So we'll wrap up today with a bit of dessert.

The futures market Kalshi has all kinds of political bets. Some of them are, as far as we can see, reasonably harmless. Some of them, on the other hand, are open to manipulation by bad actors. Kalshi wants to avoid regulation as much as is possible, and certainly does not want to be shut down. So, it has to at least pretend to care about removing problematic bets, and about punishing (at least) some of those bad actors. And so, yesterday, the site announced its first ever lifetime ban. Readers can probably guess who it was, if we give the hint that he's a blast from the (somewhat recent) past.

The scammer in question is everyone's favorite Congressional cosplayer, former representative "George Santos." He's almost as grifty as Donald Trump, just on a much smaller scale. How there isn't a Santos cryptocoin, we don't know. Anyhow, one of the bets on Kalshi was "Will George Santos attend Donald Trump's State of the Union address?" "Santos" posted a bunch of messages to eX-Twitter about the suit he was planning to wear, and how excited he was to hear Trump in person, and once that drove up the market for "Yes, Santos will attend," the former congressman placed a bunch of bets that he wouldn't attend. He thought he'd be laughing all the way to the bank, but he ultimately had to pay a fine greater than his winnings (which were about $20,000), and now he's banned forever. So, who's laughing now?

There was also one other political figure sanctioned yesterday. Laurie Buckhout (R) is trying to unseat Rep. Don Davis (D-NC) in NC-01, which is now R+5 after redistricting. She bet $1,000 on herself to win, which may or may not be helpful to her, politically (it shows confidence, but it also trivializes the election). It definitely did not work for her financially, as she had to surrender the futures she bought, and pay an additional $2,500 in fines. She's also banned from the site for 3 years.

If an athlete bets on themselves and/or their team (ahem, Pete Rose) to win, then that's obviously a problem because they could manipulate things to increase win chances in the games they bet on at the expense of the games they did not bet on. For example, Rose—who was a player-manager when he started betting on baseball—would overuse his best pitchers in games he'd bet on, and would keep them out of games he did not bet on. This undermines the legitimacy of the competition in a very serious way.

We're not so sure that a politician betting on themselves to win works the same way. If they're trying to win, a bet on themselves to win isn't going to change their approach to their campaign. They're not only going to use the "good" campaign manager for this campaign, and not the next one. That said, there are most certainly bets that could be abused. For example, the site is selling futures on when Iran and the U.S. will reach a permanent agreement on nuclear weapons. Someone, say a grifty president, could bet heavily on "no" futures for "Before Mar 1, 2027," and then could prevent a deal until then. So, Kalshi is going to have to seriously limit its political future options at some point soon, or else it's going to get regulated six ways to Sunday. (Z)

Today's Senate Polls

If Abacus Data has the right of it, the GOP is in big trouble. Lopsided Democratic wins in Iowa, Maine and Ohio would mean Michigan is safe, and that the Senate would certainly flip. So would the House. That said, it's only one poll, albeit by a Canadian house that's been doing this for a while, and should certainly be able to handle three close-to-Canada states. (Z)

State	Democrat	D %	Republican	R %	Start	End	Pollster
Iowa	Josh Turek	48%	Ashley Hinson	41%	Aug 26	Aug 28	Abacus Data
Maine	Troy Jackson	50%	Susan Collins*	42%	Aug 26	Aug 28	Abacus Data
Ohio	Sherrod Brown	46%	Jon Husted*	41%	Aug 26	Aug 28	Abacus Data
South Carolina	Annie Andrews	38%	Darline Graham	51%	Aug 26	Aug 28	Abacus Data

* Denotes incumbent

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