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Trump Makes His Closing Argument

If the Republicans take a thrashing today, as expected, then the blame will be placed squarely at the feet of one Donald John Trump. And the last few days have provided reminders aplenty as to exactly why that is the case.

The number one problem, of course, is that Trump has made policy choices that are both extremely unpopular and extremely unnecessary. At the top of that list is the Iran War, which the administration still hasn't offered a compelling explanation for. Yes, we know that the purpose was to distract from the Epstein files stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, but nobody can believe that has been achieved, or will be achieved, through this particular course of action.

And just in case anyone has forgotten about the war, yesterday the U.S. launched a new offensive against the Iranians, with Qeshm Island as the target. So, people are going to wake up this morning to a headline that effectively works out to "Iran War still ongoing, not likely to end soon." With any other administration, we would assume they would not do anything so politically foolish as to renew a war the day before an election, unless they had a heckuva good reason, like "Our intelligence tells us the Iranians were preparing an Election Day-offensive, and we had to forestall it." With this administration, we just don't know. Especially because Trump has no issue with leaking intelligence for political reasons, and would generally be expected to say "the Iranians were going to attack us," if that were true. Heck, he would generally be expected to say it, even if it weren't true. Instead, well, he seemed to be unaware of the attack when he appeared on Fox for an interview yesterday. Which is also a convenient reminder of a different liability he has.

Another problem with Trump is his insistence on using the mode of campaigning that he used with great success in 2016. He lives by the rally, and he will die by the rally. There is a pretty good argument to be made that he shouldn't be out on the hustings at all, since his mid-30s approval makes him pretty toxic. But if he IS going to be out there, well, his rallies are played out, in much the same way that ratings for The Apprentice declined every single year he hosted it. On Sunday Trump performed the final rally of the midterm season, appearing in Salina, KS, to try to fire up a crowd of about 2,000 people. That is a pretty solid turnout... for a high school football game. For a presidential appearance, maybe not so much.

Of course, assuming things go south for the GOP, Trump will also get the blame for pushing aside electable candidates in favor of unelectable candidates in a number of races. North Carolina is almost certainly lost, though we suppose Trump might be forgiven for that, since Roy Cooper is a very strong candidate and the Tar Heel State has a long history of swapping out senators. On the other hand, Texas will be a near-unforgivable loss if James Talarico (D) defeats Ken Paxton (R) for the open (thanks to Trump) U.S. Senate seat there. The news out of Texas yesterday was something of a reverse-Haley Stevens. Hillary Shepheard is the leader of the Young Republicans of Tarrant County, and is regarded as a rising star in Republican circles. Well, she WAS the leader, and she WAS regarded. Yesterday, she announced that "Our party needs a slap in the face" and that "Ken Paxton has to lose" has to lose for the sake of the Republicans' future.

And then, there is the news from yesterday that might be the Trumpiest story of them all. One of the things that has to be particularly aggravating to Republican muckety-mucks is Trump's propensity for focusing on stupid or trivial things, whether it's [SQUABBLE WITH PERSON X] or [UNNECCESSARY AND PROBABLY CORRUPT VANITY PROJECT Y]. Both things make Trump (and, by extension, his party) look small and self-involved, and at the same time completely uninterested in the problems being faced by average Americans.

Anyhow, after finishing a run of 32 rallies in 30 days, Trump announced yesterday that he would share his final message of the midterms, and invited the press to be in attendance. The site of the speech was... the Lincoln Reflecting Pool. And in his roughly 60 minutes of speaking time, the President spent less than 10 minutes talking about the midterms (and that was mostly how great a job of campaigning he has done). The other 50 minutes were devoted to carping about the evil people who vandalized the pool, and showing numerous renderings of how awesome the pool is going to be after the next round of renovations, and talking about other construction projects like the Arc de Trump. Now THAT is a closing message. Didn't we tell you this was the Trumpiest story of them all?

Still another issue (we told you there was a lot), is that Trump doesn't pass legislation. He gets roughly one tax cut through each term, and that's about it. On a podcast recorded Sunday but aired yesterday, Trump advised that if the Democrats win control of Congress, he will "become Mr. Veto." In other words, it does not matter what the legislation is, or how hard the Democrats work to accommodate Republican concerns, it's DoA if and when it hits Trump's desk. He could scarcely do more to help the Democrats out on this front. Now, when they pass [BILL X] and he kills it, they can say, "He has no interest in governing, and no interest in making people's lives better, because of personal petulance. He said so before there were even any election results, much less some actual legislation. The only way to get [BILL X] passed is to elect a Democratic trifecta."

There was one other big Trump-related story yesterday, and it broke fairly late in the day. Another politically unhelpful thing that Trump and his minions have done is endeavor to interfere in the elections. It is true that cheating can work; you could ask Lyndon B. Johnson and Richard Nixon if they weren't, you know, dead. However, Trump's attempts at cheating have been too ham-fisted, with the result being that the administration has been defeated, over and over, by both state-level officials and by judges. And the problems with trying and failing so much are numerous. It makes the administration look weak. It makes the administration look anti-democratic. And it rallies the opposition to make a point of voting, and voting in a way that the White House is not able to interfere with. Nearly 60 million ballots have already been cast, and it's likely that number will go up when the final early-vote totals are announced. That is considerably more than the 46 million early votes cast in 2022, and is more than half of the total of 112 million votes cast in that election.

The specific news on this front from yesterday is that the Supreme Court rejected Trump's request to put aside 20,000 votes in California, until the eligibility of the voters in question can be resolved. The brief order was unsigned, and without dissent. That suggests that the judges voted 9-0 against Trump. Certainly a majority did, which means at least two of the conservatives weren't buying what Trump is selling.

And the good news (or the bad news, if you're Trump) doesn't end there. Normally, the Court would request briefs from both sides of a case. It did not bother to make such a request of California AG Rob Bonta. That means that the Trump administration's argument was so weak, it collapsed entirely of its own accord. It's also a signal that the Supremes are not terribly interested in mucking around in this election, and do not find compelling the causes of action that Trump and his acolytes have been pursuing. He's failed so often in the lower courts that the Supremes—they of the "Trump is basically a king" ruling—was really his last, best hope. Now it appears that hope is dashed.

And that is how the last 48 hours of Trumpism have been a microcosm of the last 9 months of Trumpism. Let the finger-pointing begin. Oh, wait. It already has begun. (Z)

Election Projections

Let's put all the predictions in one place, in a nice, tidy package. Tomorrow, or later this week, or next week, you can check back and see which approach worked out the best.

First, here is the information we'll put into the tables:

• State (R/D): State, plus party that currently holds the seat
• E-V.com: Our projection
• EVR: Our readers' projection, based on the survey we ran
• NS: Nate Silver's FLIPR projection
• APA: Average of all the poll aggregators (e.g., 270toWin, RealClearPolitics)
• Cook: Cook Political Report
• Sabato: Sabato's Crystal Ball
• IE: Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales
• Polymarket: Polymarket prediction market
• Kalshi: Kalshi prediction market
• PredictIt: PredictIt prediction market

And now, here are the projections for the 18 Senate seats that are plausibly in play. Different outlets use different ways of expressing their prediction, of course:

State	E-V.com	EVR	NS	APA	Cook	Sabato	IE	Poly	Kalshi	PredictIt
Alaska (R)	Peltola +3%	Peltola (87.2%)	Peltola +2.4%	Peltola +2.1%	Toss-Up	Leans D	Toss-Up	Peltola (71%)	Peltola (68%)	Peltola (70%)
Florida (R)	Moody +5%	(Moody 95%)	Moody +6.1%	Moody +6%	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	(Moody 85%)	(Moody 84%)	(Moody 85%)
Georgia (D)	Ossoff +10%	Ossoff (99.9%)	Ossoff +9.4%	Ossoff +8.5%	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Ossoff (97%)	Ossoff (97%)	Ossoff (97%)
Iowa (R)	Turek +2%	Turek (65.2%)	Turek +1%	Tied	Toss-Up	Leans R	Toss-Up	Turek (53%)	Turek (51%)	Tied
Kansas (R)	Hamilton +5%	Hamilton (78.5%)	Hamilton +4%	Hamilton +3.7%	Toss-Up	Leans D	Toss-Up	Hamilton (64%)	Hamilton (64%)	Hamilton (71%)
Louisiana (R)	Letlow +4%	Letlow (93.2%)	Letlow +4%	N/A	Solid R	Leans R	Likely R	Letlow (87%)	Letlow (88%)	Letlow (88%)
Maine (R)	Jackson +6%	Jackson (70.1%)	Jackson +3.9%	Jackson +4.6%	Toss-Up	Leans D	Toss-Up	Jackson (73%)	Jackson (72%)	Jackson (74%)
Michigan (D)	El-Sayed +6%	El-Sayed (88.4%)	El-Sayed +4.9%	El-Sayed +5.4%	Lean D	Leans D	Tilt D	El-Sayed (81%)	El-Sayed (81%)	El-Sayed (79%)
Minnesota (D)	Flanagan +4%	Flanagan (97.7%)	Flanagan +6%	Flanagan +6.2%	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Flanagan (92%)	Flanagan (91%)	Flanagan (90%)
Mississippi (R)	Hyde-Smith +3%	Hyde-Smith (78.6%)	Hyde-Smith +6.5%	N/A	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Hyde-Smith (87%)	Hyde-Smith (86%)	Hyde-Smith (86%)
Montana (R)	Alme +1%	Alme (60.2%)	Alme +8.7%	Alme +10.5%	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Alme (91%)	Alme (90%)	Alme (88%)
Nebraska (R)	Ricketts +3%	Ricketts (50.5%)	Ricketts +1.2%	Ricketts +1.5%	Lean R	Leans R	Tilt R	Ricketts (68%)	Ricketts (67%)	Ricketts (65%)
New Hampshire (D)	Pappas +10%	Pappas (96.6%)	Pappas +8.3%	Pappas +7%	Lean D	Likely D	Tilt D	Pappas (95%)	Pappas (93%)	Pappas (96%)
North Carolina (R)	Cooper +11%	Cooper (98.9%)	Cooper +10%	Cooper +10.7%	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Cooper (98%)	Cooper (98%)	Cooper (97%)
Ohio (R)	Brown +3%	Brown (95.7%)	Brown +3%	Brown +2.6%	Toss-Up	Leans D	Tilt D	Brown (72%)	Brown (72%)	Brown (75%)
South Carolina (R)	Graham +2%	Graham (63%)	Graham +1.1%	Graham +1.4%	Lean R	Leans R	Tilt R	Graham (68%)	Graham (68%)	Graham (67%)
South Dakota (R)	Rounds +3%	Rounds (89.2%)	Rounds +10.6%	Rounds +10.4%	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Rounds (95%)	Rounds (95%)	Rounds (89%)
Texas (R)	Talarico +5%	Talarico (92.2%)	Talarico +3.3%	Talarico +3.3%	Toss-Up	Leans D	Tilt D	Talarico (74%)	Talarico (74%)	Talarico (77%)
Totals	11 D, 0 TU, 7 R	11 D, 0 TU, 7 R	11 D, 0 TU, 7 R	10 D, 3 TU, 5 R	5 D, 6 TU, 7 R	10 D, 0 TU, 8 R	7 D, 4 TU, 7 R	11 D, 0 TU, 7 R	11 D, 0 TU, 7 R	10 D, 1 TU, 7 R

It's kind of remarkable how little disagreement there is. There are a handful of seats where the question is "toss-up" or "Democratic." But the only seat that has predictions on both sides is Iowa, and even then, it's only one prognosticator who has Josh Turek losing.

The Republicans control 14 of the 18 Senate seats in the chart. That means that if, for example, our predictions are all correct, then 7 seats will flip, giving a Senate with 51 Democrats, 2 independents who caucus with the Democrats, 46 Republicans and 1 John Fetterman. Put another way, the only prognosticators who are not predicting a Democratic Senate right out of the gate are Cook and Inside Elections.

Now, the 16 governorships that are plausibly in play:

State	E-V.com	EVR	NS	APA	Cook	Sabato	IE	Poly	Kalshi	PredictIt
Alaska (R)	N/A	Kreiss-Tomkins (84.2%)	Kreiss-Tomkins +19.1%	N/A	Lean D	Likely D	Tilt D	Kreiss-Tomkins (89%)	Kreiss-Tomkins (90%)	Kreiss-Tomkins (89%)
Arizona (D)	N/A	Hobbs (99.1%)	Hobbs +9%	Hobbs +9.3%	Likely D	Likely D	Tilt D	Hobbs (93%)	Hobbs (82%)	Hobbs (91%)
Florida (R)	N/A	Donalds (78.8%)	Donalds +4.1%	Donalds +4.3%	Lean R	Leans R	Lean R	Donalds (63%)	Donalds (63%)	Donalds (68%)
Georgia (R)	N/A	Lance-Bottoms (75.8%)	Lance-Bottoms +0.7%	Jackson +0.6%	Toss-Up	Leans D	Tilt D	Lance-Bottoms (71%)	Lance-Bottoms (72%)	Lance-Bottoms (71%)
Iowa (R)	N/A	Sand (74.8%)	Sand +7.8%	Sand +7.1%	Lean D	Leans D	Lean D	Sand (88%)	Sand (88%)	Sand (89%)
Kansas (D)	N/A	Masterson (68.6%)	Tied	Masterson +1.2%	Toss-Up	Leans R	Tilt R	Masterson (65%)	Masterson (65%)	Masterson (66%)
Maine (D)	N/A	Pingree (94.8%)	Pingree +10.3%	Pingree +10.3%	Solid D	Likely D	Solid D	Pingree (97%)	Pingree (97%)	N/A
Michigan (D)	N/A	Benson (97.7%)	Benson +8.6%	Benson +9.2%	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Benson (85%)	Benson (95%)	Benson (95%)
Nebraska (R)	N/A	Pillen (92.8%)	Pillen +5.5%	Pillen +5.9%	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Pillen (91%)	Pillen (89%)	Pillen (85%)
Nevada (R)	N/A	Ford (75.5%)	Ford +0.2%	Lombardo +0.2%	Toss-Up	Leans D	Toss-Up	Ford (76%)	Ford (75%)	Ford (81%)
New Hampshire (R)	N/A	Ayotte (64%)	Ayotte +6.6%	Ayotte +9.3%	Likely R	Leans R	Solid R	Ayotte (86%)	Ayotte (85%)	Ayotte (80%)
Ohio (R)	N/A	Acton (98.6%)	Acton +4.4%	Acton +4.1%	Lean D	Leans D	Tilt D	Acton (84%)	Acton (83%)	Acton (81%)
Oregon (D)	N/A	Kotek (96.2%)	Kotek +1.6%	Kotek +2.0%	Lean D	Leans D	Tilt D	Kotek (82%)	Kotek (84%)	Kotek (99%)
Texas (R)	N/A	Abbott (70.4%)	Abbott +1.6%	Abbott +1.9%	Lean R	Leans R	Tilt R	Abbott (62%)	Abbott (62%)	Abbott (64%)
Vermont (R)	N/A	Scott (67%)	Janoo +1.1%	N/A	Likely R	Leans R	Likely R	Scott (68%)	Scott (67%)	Scott (52%)
Wisconsin (D)	N/A	Crowley (95.2%)	Crowley +5.5%	Crowley +4.6%	Lean D	Leans D	Tilt D	Crowley (87%)	Crowley (85%)	Crowley (84%)
Totals	0 D, 16 TU, 0 R	10 D, 0 TU, 6 R	11 D, 1 TU, 4 R	8 D, 1 TU, 7 R	8 D, 3 TU, 5 R	10 D, 0 TU, 6 R	9 D, 1 TU, 6 R	10 D, 0 TU, 6 R	10 D, 0 TU, 6 R	9 D, 1 TU, 6 R

There's a little more disagreement here than with the Senate races, but not a lot. In Georgia, Nevada and Vermont, there is one outlet going against the majority position. But beyond that, it's just a few outlets who see a toss-up race where others see a winner.

The Republicans control 10 of the 16 governorships in the chart. So if, for example, the readers are correct, then the Democrats will net four governors' mansions. If that were to come to pass, the blue team would control 28 governorships overall, as compared to 22 for the red team.

And finally, we'll pass along the readers' prediction for the House. The average guess was 234.1 seats for the Democrats. The median guess was 233 seats, and the mode was 230.

And now we wait and see how everyone did. (Z)

Readers Get Out Their (Crystal) Balls

We got over a thousand predictions from readers, and we picked out 25 of them to share:

A.M. in Marlborough, MA: If the Democrats win control of Congress, then Associate Justice Samuel Alito will announce his retirement. The lame duck Senate will ram through a replacement as fast as possible. Clarence Thomas, despite enormous pressure, will not retire.

S.T. in Asbury Park, NJ: The four abortion related matters on the ballots in Idaho, Missouri, Virginia and Nevada will all be decided in a pro-choice matter. Dobbs may not be the topic of the day, but it has not been forgotten.

B.E. in Darmstadt, Germany: Donald Trump will flee to Argentina once it is obvious Republicans have lost both chambers of Congress.

J.U. in Peoria, AZ: Not so much on Tuesday, but Trump will resign within 6 months.

K.L. in Chattanooga, TN: Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will announce he is not running for a leadership position in the (soon-to-be) minority GOP caucus in the House.

D.W. in Fifty Lakes, MN: Most of the polling will be pretty spot on.

A.B in Columbus, OH: One high-profile Republican House member that nobody is expecting will lose their seat.

A.M. in Brookhaven, PA: I think we will see a LOT more ticket splitting than usual, with multiple cases where the U.S. Senate and governor races end up with winners from different parties. In most cases, those will be Democratic senators and Republican governors, but the opposite in Maine, where Sen. Susan Collins (R) is the only one of the endangered Republicans that has endured tough challenges in the past.

R.G. in Elizabethtown, IN: Beau Bayh will be elected Secretary of State in Indiana, becoming the first statewide elected Democrat to win an election in Indiana since 2012.

T.S. in Eindhoven, The Netherlands: There will be an attempt to arrest at least one elected politician.

S.S. in Turlock, CA: There will be fewer shenanigans from the Trump administration than feared. Trump will wait until the results are in and then claim massive fraud, but nothing will change.

J.T.B. in Manhattan, NY: If the Democrats take the Senate, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) will announce sometime between Election Day and the seating of the new Congress in January that she's becoming an independent who will caucus with the Democrats.

A.G. in Sisters, OR: Democrats will pick up 11 state legislative houses and hold a majority of the 99 for the first time since 2010.

C.B. in Hamden. CT: Pennsylvania and Arizona will have Democratic state trifectas.

R.H. in Macungie PA: I predict we will know which party will control both chambers of Congress by the end of day Wednesday and it will be the Democrats for both.

Z.C. in Beverly Hills, CA: Prop 40 will pass in California because people are sick of billionaires.

O.T.M. in Gasteiz, Spain: One or more Cabinet secretaries will quit or be removed from their post between the midterms and the new Congress.

H.R. in Jamaica Plain, MA: The Latino vote for the Democrats will return to 2022 levels.

A.B. in Wendell, NC: I believe Kathy Hochul will lose re-election in New York. That is my "surprise" result. I think her unpopularity right now will lead to the Empire State—which has been willing, in the past, to elect Republican governors—to do so once again.

This is not a prediction I make lightly, and it is one I hope like hell is wrong. Alas, I fear it is not, and Wednesday morning, we will be talking about Governor-elect Blakeman... in spite of, and not because of, Donald Trump's endorsement. I believe Hochul's personal unpopularity will be a heavier anchor for her than Trump's endorsement will be for Blakeman. And I believe a look at election results after will show a lot of ballot-skipping with people leaving the governor line blank... which is what will sink Hochul.

M.K. in Mokena, IL: Gov. JB Pritzker (D-IL) will be booted from office.

A.G. in Scranton, PA: My loudmouthed Republican brother and evangelical Christian mother (and her idiot church friends) will whine so loudly that the eardrums of dogs in the deepest, darkest reaches of fu**ing Mongolia will explode.

D.H. in Portland, OR: Darmak and Jalad at Tanagra.

K.G. in Columbus, OH: The New York Times will find a third man named Dan Sullivan eating in a Cheesecake Factory, thus casting doubt on the entire election and proving "both sides are bad."

B.B. in Roy, WA: Donald Trump will have a heart attack.

C.B. in Los Angeles, CA: Donald Trump's penis will shrink even more.

The last one, at least, seems like a very safe bet. (Z)

House Races to Watch

We've written a few pieces about House races that are worth watching tonight. However, let's try to put a finer point on it.

Early Indicator Districts: These are districts in the East that will give some sense of whether there is a blue wave, and how big that wave is.

FL-07 (R+5): This is an open seat being vacated by Cory Mills (R) after his sexual misconduct scandals. The Democrats will need to win some seats like this to take the House.

FL-13 (R+6): This is Anna Paulina Luna's (R) seat. She's an outspoken Trumper, and her fate will give some sense of exactly how powerful the anti-Trump sentiment is.

ME-02 (R+4): Former governor Paul LePage (R) is up against a progressive, Matthew Dunlap (D). If Dunlap wins, or keeps it close, it could presage progressive success elsewhere, like in the Michigan U.S. Senate race.

NC-01 (R+5): Don Davis (D) is trying to hold on in a seat that was re-gerrymandered to make it much harder for him to do so. If he survives, that could be an indication that the GOP gerrymanders won't be successful.

PA-07 (R+1): This seat is being defended by Ryan Mackenzie (R). Normally, incumbency is worth about 3 points. So, if McKenzie loses, it's going to be an indicator of anti-incumbent sentiment. The bigger he loses, the stronger the indication.

PA-10 (R+3): Ibid., except that it's Scott Perry (R) defending.

VA-01 (R+3): This is the seat of Rob Wittman (R). The Democrats really, really want this one.

VA-02 (EVEN): Elaine Luria (D) used to hold this seat, and then got knocked off by Jen Kiggans (R). Today, it's a rematch. If the Democrats can't win this one, it's a bad sign for them.

Latino Districts: These districts are all majority-Latino, and are where we will learn if the Latino backlash against Trump is for real.

FL-27 (R+6): This is the district of María Elvira Salazar (R), who knows her (mostly Cuban) voters are hopping mad about Trump's immigration policy. She dared criticize the throne, and may pay the price of that.

TX-15 (R+7): Monica De La Cruz (R) is aiming for a third term. If she loses, particularly by several points, then it's big trouble for the GOP, in Texas and elsewhere. The district is 81% Latino, and most of that is Mexican Americans.

TX-23 (R+7): This is the district that Tony Gonzales (R) left open when he resigned after his paramour took her own life.

TX-28 (R+2): Henry Cuellar (D), one of the most conservative members of his caucus, is trying to win an 11th term in a district that is redder than it was last time. If he loses, that's bad news for the blue team.

TX-34 (R+3): This is the seat of Vicente Gonzalez (D) who, like Cuellar, is a conservative Democrat trying to hold on to a slightly redder district. This district is more than 90% Latino.

TX-35 (D+19): Greg Casar (D) isn't going to lose, obviously. But if he really runs up the score, it tells us that Latinos are so mad, they are willing to get to the polls just to make a point.

Note that AZ-06 (EVEN), CA-22 (D+1) and NM-02 (EVEN) are also swingy and majority-Latino, but those results will be announced later than in the districts above.

Black Districts: These are the districts that will give a sense of what Black voters are thinking.

GA-06 (D+25): Lucy McBath (D) is obviously going to win another term. But if she improves on the 74% of the vote she got last time, it strongly suggests that Black voters are getting to the polls to vote for Keisha Lance Bottoms and/or Jon Ossoff.

LA-02 (D+17): Troy Carter, who is running for a fourth term, is Black and is going to win this 50.4% Black district easily. However, if Jamie Davis—also Black—is going to pull off an upset in the state's Senate race, he needs turnout here to be way up over 2024 (about 305,000 votes, total).

MD-04 (D+39): There isn't too much of interest going on in Maryland this year, and incumbent Glenn Ivey (D) will win easily. However, this will likely be the first majority-Black district to report results. Ivey got 88% of the vote on the strength of just under 240,000 voters casting ballots for him.

MS-02 (D+11): This is Bennie Thompson's (D) district, and has a greater percentage of Black voters (63%) than any other. Thompson is in no danger, but if he can run up the score, that will get Democrats very excited. Also a huge win here might hint that Scott Colom (D) has a shot at unseating Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS).

TN-09 (R+9): This is the district Steve Cohen (D) is vacating, and has nowhere near the Black population it did before being gerrymandered. If Black voters nonetheless show up in force to vote for Justin Pearson (D), who is Black and is running a one-issue campaign (data centers), then that is great news for the blue team.

Senate Districts: These are the districts that pretty closely approximate the partisan lean of the key Senate races taking place in the state. If the Democrats are doing much better than the PVI of the district, it's probably a pretty good sign for the Senate race. If they are doing much worse, well...

South Carolina R+8 Texas R+6

FL-05 (R+5): Aaron Bean (R) is running for reelection; the district matches exactly the R+5 partisan lean of the state.

IA-02 (R+4): This seat is open because Ashley Hinson (R) is running for the Senate. Since incumbency is not a factor, then the success (or lack thereof) of Democrat Lindsay James will be mostly a reflection of the overall political climate. Iowa, as a whole, is R+6, so James is facing a hill similar in size to the one Josh Turek is trying to climb.

KS-02 (R+10): Derek Schmidt (R) is up for reelection; the district has a lot of evangelicals, farmers and evangelical farmers, and Adam Hamilton will need solid support from those demographics if he is to win in this R+8 state.

MI-07 (EVEN): Tom Barrett (R) wants a second term. Michigan is one of only two states in the country that is EVEN (Wisconsin is the other), and MI-07 is therefore an exact match.

OH-09 (R+5): Marcy Kaptur (D) has pulled off miracles before, and she's searching for another semi-miracle today. Her district has the same lean as Ohio as a whole.

SC-07 (R+7): Joe Wilson (R) is running for his 12th term. If he doesn't get it, or if it's a nail-biter, that's trouble for Darline Graham (R) in this R+8 state.

TX-24 (R+7): Beth Van Duyne (R) is up for reelection in the district that most closely approximates Texas' R+6 statewide partisan lean. The district is two-thirds white, so if she does lose, Ken Paxton (R) is in deep trouble.

Red State Republicans: These are districts in red states represented by a Republican representative.

IA-01 (R+4): Mariannette Miller-Meeks came closer to losing than any other 2024 winner. The Democrats will be bitterly disappointed if they don't flip her seat.

IA-03 (R+2): Zach Nunn (R) is trying to keep his job. If the blue team comes up short both here and in IA-01, it's a bad omen for the Iowa Senate race, and possibly even for the Midwest as a whole. Lots of farmers in IA-01 and IA-03.

KY-06 (R+7): Gov. Andy Beshear (D) is all-in on trying to get his former aide, Zach Dembo, elected. If the Governor succeeds, it will be a big feather in his cap.

OH-07 (R+5): Max Miller (R) is accused of violence against his ex-wife; if the Democrats can't knock him off, among all people, then R+4 may be their upper limit in terms of winnable districts.

WI-03 (R+3): Derrick Van Orden (R) is an obnoxious person, a show horse who ran some really sleazy AI-generated ads this campaign (which we wrote about). If the blue team can't defeat awful people like Van Orden and Miller, that's a big, red, flashing warning sign.

This should give us plenty to write about as we liveblog tonight. (Z)

New Poll: Voters Don't Trust Polls

Politico asked PF Global to conduct a poll asking Americans what they think about polls. The results are disheartening. Question 1 was: Which of these statements do you agree with? The results are below, with the last three columns giving the crosstabs based on how the person was planning to vote on Nov. 3:

Statement	Men	Women	Total	Democrats	Republicans	Undecideds
Polls underestimate Democrats	17%	19%	18%	33%	7%	2%
Polls are accurate	26%	24%	25%	28%	26%	15%
Polls underestimate Republicans	27%	19%	23%	12%	45%	8%
Don't know	30%	38%	34%	28%	21%	75%

Only a quarter of Americans think the polls are nailing it. Interestingly, Democrats think the polls are missing Democrats and Republicans think the polls are missing Republicans. This seems to be a partisan reflex more than anything else.

Question 2: The polls are showing Democrats winning key races. Which of these statements do you agree with? Again, the results:

Statement	Men	Women	Total	Democrats	Republicans	Undecideds
Polls are right. Democrats will win them	43%	40%	41%	70%	20%	15%
Polls are wrong. Republicans will win them	26%	21%	23%	7%	50%	9%
Don't know	31%	39%	35%	23%	30%	76%

Again here, there is a strong partisan bias. Democrats are very sure the polls are right. This disagrees with the conventional wisdom that Democrats are wetting their pants because the polls are so good they must be wrong.

Among the people who disagreed with the statement that Democrats will win the key races, here are the reasons:

Reason	Men	Women	Total	Democrats	Republicans	Undecided
Polls are missing Republicans	59%	61%	60%	52%	65%	42%
Polls are right but things will change by Election Day	34%	31%	33%	37%	30%	26%
Don't know	7%	7%	7%	11%	5%	32%

The most popular reason was the "shy Republicans" who refuse to be polled. But in previous elections, that effect seems mostly to be true only when Trump is on the ballot. In other years, the polls were pretty good. Still, "once bitten, twice shy," as they say.

The polling industry is well aware of the fact that getting a representative sample to actually answer all the questions is very difficult and has tried many ways to increase that. Mixed-mode polling, where people selected from the actual list of registered voters are sent text messages with links to the poll questions seems to get better responses and is often used. Corrections for possible undersampling of certain demographics is common now, although the hard part is figuring out how big the correction should be.

Sometimes pollsters try to get estimates of demographics by other means. For example, it is possible to get lists of people who are registered owners of a pickup truck and lists of people who subscribe to Guns & Ammo magazine. So it can be known quite accurately what fraction of the population owns a pickup truck and what fraction gets the magazine. Surveys can then ask respondents if they own a pickup truck and if they subscribe to Guns & Ammo. If, for example, it is known that 30% of Americans in some state own a pickup truck and the survey shows only 20% who own a pickup truck, it is a good guess that pickup truck owners are underrepresented in the survey by 50%. That can be corrected for by counting each one as 1.5 people. Which is interesting, because many people buy a pickup truck to compensate for the fact that they are half a man.

More generally, pollsters can get outside data to determine what fraction of the population in a state is a male, middle-aged, high-school-only, white, churchgoing, pickup-truck driving, subscriber to Guns & Ammo, which probably correlates well with being a MAGA Republican. If the number of people in the survey with these characteristics is lower than the expected number, the ones who did answer can be appropriately overweighted. By asking seemingly random questions like: "Which of the following magazines do you subscribe to... ?" the pollster is collecting extremely valuable information. In reality, it is more complicated than this, but hopefully you get the core idea of using external data to estimate who is underrepresented in a survey and then correcting for it.

Another problem with polling that is really inherent is that a poll is a snapshot in time. If public opinion evolves quickly in the final week of a campaign, a poll take Oct 24-25 is going to miss it. For example, polls of the Ohio gubernatorial race taken before the now-infamous ad are probably going to be way off from the election result, but not because the pollster goofed up. They will be off because the voters changed their minds. We also saw this in the Democratic primary for governor of Wisconsin earlier this year.

In any event, the pollsters are about to get a big test today. The story they tell is pretty clear (see above), and if it's substantially off, one side is going to be very disappointed, and the other is going to take it as "more proof" that the polls are useless. (V)

Today's Senate Polls

It's the last day of polling for this cycle, and nearly everything's coming up roses (well, bluebells) for the Democrats. Out of 18 polls, the Republican leads in only two. And one of those two (Ohio) is a split decision. (Z)

State	Democrat	D %	Republican	R %	Start	End	Pollster
Alaska	Mary Peltola	50%	Dan Sullivan*	45%	Oct 28	Nov 01	AtlasIntel
Colorado	John Hickenlooper*	58%	Mark Baiseley	39%	Oct 09	Oct 20	YouGov
Colorado	John Hickenlooper*	61%	Mark Baiseley	37%	Oct 31	Nov 02	Research Co.
Florida	Angie Nixon	46%	Ashley Moody*	53%	Oct 31	Nov 02	Research Co.
Georgia	Jon Ossoff*	52%	Mike Collins	42%	Oct 31	Nov 02	Research Co.
Iowa	Josh Turek	51%	Ashley Hinson	47%	Oct 28	Nov 01	AtlasIntel
Illinois	Juliana Stratton	56%	Don Tracy	43%	Oct 31	Nov 02	Research Co.
Kansas	Adam Hamilton	52%	Roger Marshall	45%	Oct 28	Nov 01	AtlasIntel
Maine	Troy Jackson	53%	Susan Collins*	44%	Oct 28	Nov 01	AtlasIntel
Michigan	Abdul El-Sayed	51%	Mike Rogers	45%	Oct 31	Nov 02	Emerson Coll.
Michigan	Abdul El-Sayed	54%	Mike Rogers	46%	Oct 28	Nov 01	AtlasIntel
Minnesota	Peggy Flanagan	48%	Michele Tafoya	46%	Oct 28	Nov 01	AtlasIntel
North Carolina	Roy Cooper	56%	Michael Whatley	42%	Oct 28	Nov 01	AtlasIntel
New Hampshire	Chris Pappas	52%	John Sununu	44%	Oct 28	Nov 01	AtlasIntel
New Mexico	Ben Ray Lujan*	60%	Larry Marker	40%	Oct 31	Nov 02	Research Co.
Ohio	Sherrod Brown	46%	Jon Husted*	48%	Oct 31	Nov 02	Emerson Coll.
Ohio	Sherrod Brown	51%	Jon Husted*	44%	Oct 28	Nov 01	AtlasIntel
Texas	James Talarico	51%	Ken Paxton	48%	Oct 31	Nov 02	Research Co.

* Denotes incumbent

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