Donald Trump Celebrates His 250th Birthday

Or so it seemed. OK, he's old, but not that old. But he certainly made it all about himself. Let's start with the run-up to the holiday itself. On June 24, a fake Great American State Fair opened on the National Mall. If you have never been to a state fair, suffice it to say that they are kitschy but, if you go with the right mindset, fun. Each state has its own local or regional traditions, including Cajun-infused boiled peanuts (Alabama), 130-pound cabbages (Alaska), butter cows (Illinois), gator on a stick (Louisiana), elephant ears (Ohio), deep-fried beer (Texas) and Navajo tacos (Utah). Some features, like Ferris wheels and funnel cakes, are universal. Regular attendees know all this and compare this year to last year. This hastily planned and poorly executed fair had none of this local charm and was a huge flop. Almost nobody visited it. And quite a few of the states didn't do more than create an empty booth with no one from the state there to talk to visitors. Here are some photos of the fair. Note the giant crowds everywhere. Almost as big as Trump's giant inauguration crowds:

The food stalls (lower right) were empty because the power failed and they had to be closed for hours. Even a semi-competent administration could manage to get reliable electric power to work in the middle of D.C. Maybe this is a metaphor for something. Also note the tacky plywood model of the Arc de Trump in the upper left photo.

If you like games and puzzles, reader J.G. in San Diego, CA sent us an image that someone on social media put together. It's "Where's Waldo," Great American State Fair edition:

Did you find him?

What was the holiday yesterday about? Despite endless hoopla among all ages, a new Cato Institute/Morning Consult poll shows that only a bare majority (53%) of American adults think it was about the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence. If you want to be picky, though, the Declaration was actually mostly signed on Aug. 2, 1776. Almost a quarter of the poll respondents (23%) didn't have a clue what was being celebrated. Among 18-29 year olds—the people most recently in school— it was even worse:

Only 39% got it "right" (i.e., what they were taught in school). Among Boomers, 72% got it right. On the other hand, large majorities of Democrats (81%), independents (64%), and Republicans (86%) have a favorable view of the nation's founding. Nevertheless, 36% thought the nation was founded to protect slavery (which is not true because slavery was perfectly legal under British law at that time, so there was no need to secede to preserve it). Among Black Americans, 51% believe declaring independence was to preserve slavery. Given these numbers, there is obviously a great deal of overlap here. There must be many people who believe: (1) the country was founded to preserve slavery and (2) look favorably upon this. The poll also has plenty of additional fodder for those who think Americans are quite ignorant of their history, but keep in mind that Cato is a libertarian group. Morning Consult ran the poll, so it is surely legitimate, but Cato picked the questions to ask.

Donald Trump was born on Flag Day (June 14), it's true, but somehow mistakenly confused that holiday with Saturday's. On Friday, he went to Mount Rushmore in South Dakota to honor Washington, Jefferson, T. Roosevelt, and Lincoln talk about himself and the mortal threats from the political left. He also said there was a resurgence of communism (obliquely referring to the three DSA candidates who won primaries in NYC and two who won in Colorado). He blamed this on "newcomers" (immigrants—who can't vote). He also condemned Marxist lies (e.g., telling children that we live on stolen land, an equally oblique reference to United States v. Sioux Nation of Indians in which the Marxist Supreme Court ruled 8-1 precisely that and that the U.S. owed the tribe $88 million for the land stolen from them). In case anyone missed the symbolism of his going to South Dakota, where none of the key events of 1776 took place, he did put this (AI-generated) image out on his social media site for rockheads:

Note that his image is the biggest of all. A man can dream, can't he? In case you missed the big picture, one of the key themes of Trump v2.0 is putting his stamp of everything he can, including the East Wing of the White House, the Arc de Trump, limited edition passports that read "Welcome, but be good" (which is strange for a document allowing you to visit other countries), and U.S. money.

Trump's speech at Mount Rushmore is appropriate for an event celebrating the Declaration of Independence—in a way. Both the Declaration and his speech were full of grievances. His include:

• Leftists are wiping out our history, defaming our heroes and erasing our values.
• Leftists are driving people from their jobs, shaming dissenters and demanding total submission.
• The new far-left fascists demand absolute allegiance.
• The left-wing cultural revolution is designed to overthrow the American Revolution.

In general, he has many more that didn't make it into this particular speech but often do. They are all pretty vague but include wokeness, DEI, the claim that white people (especially white men) are victims, media bias, the "rigged" 2020 election he actually lost, and the "deep state." Jefferson's document is much more specific and contains 27 precise grievances against King George III. A few of them can be summarized as follow.

• He has made judges dependent on his will alone.
• He has cut off our Trade with all parts of the world.
• He has imposed taxes without our consent.
• He has deprived us in many cases of the benefits of trial by jury.
• He has transported us beyond seas to be tried for pretended offences.
• He has abdicated government here, by declaring us out of his protection and waging war against us.

Not a lot of overlap here, but some of Jefferson's grievances do seem vaguely familiar.

Trump repeatedly invoked the words "patriot" and "patriotism" in connection with Independence Day. However, he has a modified definition from the one in the dictionary, which is "a person who loves, supports, and defends their country and its interests with devotion." His is "a person who loves, supports, and defends Donald Trump and his interests with devotion." To him, anyone who does not blindly support him is "unpatriotic," or worse, an "enemy of the state." Trump constantly compares himself to great leaders in American history and banners on federal buildings reflect this, for example:

Chad Williams, a historian at Boston University, said: "His version of patriotism is rooted in his narcissism. It's self-aggrandizing on the one hand, but it's also deeply ahistorical, and I think this entire commemoration has been reflective of this." Trump is trying to make the whole event—no, all of American history—about himself.

When Congress created the America250 Commission a decade ago to celebrate the 250th anniversary and appropriated $150 million for it to work with, it was definitely not intending the event to be about the then-president, but about the country and its history, warts and all. When the rubber began to approach the road, Trump refused to disburse the money. Instead Trump created his own commission, Freedom250, to compete with the official one. One of Freedom250's events was the disastrous State Fair (see above). It also made a bunch of videos featuring rich white men, God and Trump. Freedom250 is run by Keith Krach (pronounced "crock"), an ambitious tech entrepreneur who sold one of his companies for $4 billion. His much-younger second wife said he was abusive and once kicked her to the ground from behind and called her a "fu**ing brainwashed Democrat." She also accused him of kicking one of their children, who screamed in pain. She later filed for divorce. Clearly the man to bring the country together—after all, he donated $50,000 to Trump's 2024 inaugural committee. Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) wanted to know who was funding Freedom250 and what the quid pro quo was. He did not get an answer.

A parade in D.C. planned for Friday was canceled due to the extreme heat. So were events in Philadelphia; Fairfax, VA; Laurel, MD, and other cities. The thunderstorms caused by the heat led to thousands of people losing power.

The capstone of the festivities was Trump's speech on the National Mall, which happened Saturday at 11:15 p.m. due to delays on account of violent stormy weather. He praised the founding fathers and called several veterans onto the stage and thanked them for their service. He also praised America's military might—not for World War I or World War II, but for sinking Iran's (miniscule) navy. Other than that, his speech, which had a religious tone (God is mentioned six times), was part political rally, part discourse on flags, and part national pep talk. One highlight was: "As our Declaration of Independence tells us, we are all made in the image of one almighty God, and a communist will never say that, that's for sure."

The Declaration is not a religious document, although it does contain the famous sentence: "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness." This is a reflection of Thomas Jefferson's deist views. He believed that a Supreme Being created the universe but does not listen to prayers or interfere in human affairs. Jefferson did not believe in miracles, the Trinity, or Jesus' divinity. He saw God as the Great Clockmaker: He made the universe, wound it up, and then went off to take care of other matters.

After Trump spoke, there was an immense 40-minute fireworks display—truly impressive, as it was mixed with lightning. In NYC, the Brooklyn Bridge celebrated by catching fire, but fortunately no one was injured. Landing aircraft in other cities "made contact" with local fireworks. Again, no one was hurt but the folks on board were probably quite surprised.

Not all the weekend's events were, uh, inclusive. On Saturday, hundreds of masked men wearing clothes bearing the logo of the white supremacist Patriot Front marched around the Capitol and surrounding neighborhoods. The group has argued for turning the United States into a white ethno-state. When asked about this, Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum said he did not agree with the group on anything, but they were within their constitutional rights to free speech to march peacefully as they did.

Not all the exhibits and events were in D.C. Back in the 1790s, when Philadelphia was the national capital, George Washington lived in a house there with his family and nine slaves. The house was close to the events of July 4, 1776. There was an exhibit on the site about slavery, focusing on Washington's nine personal slaves. Trump ordered it replaced by a new one that whitewashes slavery. The city sued to keep the original exhibit. After a court battle, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit, ruled that Trump had the authority to determine what was in the exhibit and the whitewashed version was on exhibition yesterday. (V)

Democrats May Have Found Their Theme

The disclosure that Donald Trump made billions of dollars (largely in crypto) last year, is giving the Democrats an increasingly clear campaign message for the midterms: Trump is corrupt and stealing your money and doesn't care a whit that you can barely afford food. The two parts, his corruption and your financial stress, fit together well. People are going to connect the dots and assume that if Trump weren't so corrupt, they wouldn't be feeling so much pain. That is not strictly true in the sense that even if Trump were not in the crypto business, food prices wouldn't be lower. But it is also true that Trump's entire focus is on raking it in for himself instead of devoting ever last hour to working on getting prices down. He could do things to help lower prices—for example, making it easier to import cheap food from Mexico, but he is not interested. When pressed for details, Democrats could point this out.

Connecting Trump's corruption to people's pain is a good story for the midterms. But if Democrats capture either or both chambers of Congress in November, it will be a free-for-all next year. His 927-page financial disclosure (PDF) is a roadmap for Democrats to follow. It itemizes every financial venture Trump was engaged in during 2025. The suboenas will fly if Democrats get the power to issue them. Private and public depositions will abound. The biggest targets are the people around Trump, including family and cronies. They have no immunity from being called to testify. They can plead the Fifth Amendment, but in court of public opinion, that makes someone look guilty. If a representative asks someone: "Did you ever discuss a business deal with the leader of the U.A.E., Qatar, or any other country in the Middle East?" an answer of "Fifth" is a much weaker answer than "No."

World Liberty Financial, a project of the Trump and Witkoff families, has been a magnet for foreign investors. It probably has an accountant who could be asked under oath about who the investors and clients are and whether there are any potential conflicts of interest.

An investigation by the NYT has turned up the tidbit that Trump's sons and those of Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick have ties to at least 14 companies seeking almost $9 billion in government funding for deals supposedly involving rare earth minerals. Talk about conflict of interest. The sons aren't going to get immunity (unless one is prepared to rat on the others), but them saying "Fifth Amendment" a few hundred times during a hearing is not going to look great. Democrats will be able to use footage of that in 2028 to show how corrupt the Republicans are.

First son-in-law Jared Kushner has raised billions from Middle East governments he is negotiating with on matters of war and peace. What could possibly be wrong here? Would Kushner be willing to be recorded pleading the Fifth Amendment over and over and over? How would that look in Democratic ads about the "Trump crime family" in 2028? Although it is unlikely a Trump will be on the ballot in 2028, "They're all a bunch of crooks" could become a powerful campaign slogan for the Democrats. Donald Trump kept talking about the "Biden crime family" based on a Hunter Biden's lying on a government form when he bought a handgun and engaging in some moderate-level tax shenanigans. Miles of footage of Trump family members squirming under oath projects a much more powerful image.

Another area the Democrats are going to be interested in is the 21,000 securities trades Trump made while in office, some of them with curious timing. Could there be a pattern in which stock was bought, then some official announcement was made driving a stock just bought skyward, then a sale? Were there many purchases and sales in close proximity where the sale made a big profit just a few hours later? Computers are pretty good at detecting this kind of stuff. By way of contrast, Joe Biden made 13 trades during his entire presidency.

In short, the disclosure form is a veritable gold mine of areas for the House Oversight Committee to pursue if ranking member Robert Garcia (D-CA) becomes chairman in January. Garcia is very aggressive and detests Trump. It could be quite a show. If Garcia is smart, he is already prepping for future investigations. His Long Beach-based district is D+18, so he doesn't have to spend a lot of time campaigning. Besides, his staff can start digging and planning now. (V)

DoJ Starts Investigation of Dan Sullivan

The government has a message for everyone: If you do anything we don't like, we'll come after you. If we have to make up some bogus charge, we'll make up a bogus charge, Obey us or else. And no, we are not talking about the Chinese government here, but the American one. As we have written before, a retired Alaska teacher, Dan Sullivan, is running for the Senate. Alaska Secretary of State Carol Beecher kicked him off the ballot because she said he was not running in good faith. Then a judge ruled that nothing in the law or Constitution required a candidate to run in good faith, so ballots were printed and his name is on them.

Donald Trump routinely uses the DoJ as his personal enforcer, mafia style, and so this could not stand. The DoJ is now investigating Sullivan for wire fraud or conspiracy or something, just to make sure that anyone, anywhere who was thinking of challenging Trump or the Republicans in any way, thinks twice. If the DoJ indicts Teacher Sullivan on some made-up charge, the first judge to get the case will toss it out immediately. Acting AG Todd Blanche knows that and doesn't care. He doesn't expect a conviction. What he wants is to force Sullivan to spend a lot of money on lawyers and distract him from actually campaigning. The court case is irrelevant. He also wants to send everyone else a message about exercising their constitutional rights. The message is: Guess what? You don't have any rights anymore. New sheriff in town.

We don't know yet how serious Sullivan is. He could start a campaign on GoFundMe to raise money to pay his legal expenses. He could also use the publicity to collect campaign donations and actually run a campaign of sorts. DoJ's power play could backfire and turn Sullivan into a more serious candidate, especially if sets up a website with some conservative platitudes, so some Republican voters might actually think he was worth voting for. He could run as a never-Trump Republican. There could be votes to be had for that. (V)

What Should Be Article I of Trump's Impeachment?

G. Elliott Morris commissioned Verasight to run a poll asking about a possible impeachment of Donald Trump next year if Democrats get a House majority. In June, a survey showed that 53% of Americans say there are grounds for Democrats to impeach Trump and 39% say there are not. This is important because an impeachment is unlikely to get two-thirds of the Senate to vote for conviction, but an impeachment is really a battle for public opinion. If Democrats capture only the House, there could be extensive hearings in the House about the articles of impeachment. If they also capture the Senate, the House hearings could be short but there could be a real trial in the Senate, with evidence, witnesses, cross examination, and the whole nine yards, forcing senators up in 2028 to vote on multiple charges. If the senators vote "not guilty" but the public is convinced by the trial that Trump is guilty as hell, those votes will become big issues in 2028.

Here is a list of senators up in 2028. The names on it include Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Raphael Warnock (D-GA), Ted Budd (R-NC), John Fetterman (D-PA) and Ron Johnson (R-WI). Murkowski's, Budd's, and Johnson's seats are potential Democratic pickups. Warnock's and Fetterman's seats are potential Republican pickups. If Kelly runs for president, he can't run for reelection to the Senate, and his open seat will be a potential Republican pickup.

The Verasight poll had an open-ended question about what grounds there could be for impeachment. The top six (in order) were:

1. 30%: Corruption and self enrichment (emoluments clauses, crypto, the Qatar 747, etc.)
2. 30%: Abuse of power (defying the courts, weaponizing the DoJ, usurping Congress' power
3. 20%: Starting a war in Iran without it first being declared by Congress and war crimes
4. 17%: His incompetence
5. 16%: He record as a convicted felon
6. 16%: His ties to Jeffrey Epstein

The first three are valid points and definitely meet the constitutional test of high crimes and misdemeanors. Despite Jerry Ford's comment that an impeachable offense is whatever 218 members of the House think it is, the next three don't cut the mustard. We very seriously doubt that those would be articles. The last two, especially, are about things that were known before the election and the voters apparently didn't care about them much. Impeachment is really meant for behavior in office, not behavior before being elected. Interestingly, at the bottom of the list were lying (9%), the 1/6 insurrection (6%), and ICE (3%). Since an impeachment is primarily about driving public opinion (which affects how representatives and senators vote), making the process about things the public thinks are serious offenses is crucial. Also, the first three are easy to understand and easy to prove. (V)

A Million People Lost a Total of Almost $4 Billion on Trump's Crypto Con

Last week, we noted that Donald Trump personally made over $1 billion on his crypto coin. Family members and cronies also made out like bandits.

Where did the money come from? As usual, it was the rubes investors thinking anything involving Trump was bound to be successful. So, they ponied up their hard-earned dollars in the hopes of making a killing. However, that's not how it works with Trump. A cryptocurrency firm has now reported that there were almost a million people who bought Trump coins and lost money and their collective losses were $3.8 billion. That comes to an average loss of about $3,800, most likely from people who can ill afford such losses. Some people lost more. Crypto trader Nicholas Pinto, a Trump voter, put $500,000 into the $TRUMP coin. He has now lost half of it.

How much someone lost depends on when they got in and how much they paid for the coins. The high for $TRUMP was $75.35. On Friday it closed at $1.76, so anyone who bought at the peak lost 97% of his or her investment. Trump's gain had to come from somewhere, of course. Insiders and others who got in early also did great. They know that during the first hours of trading, meme coins tend to shoot up to unsustainable values. They buy early and sell early, leaving others holding the bag (of coins).

The SEC has abandoned all enforcement of meme coin trading, so Trump is safe until Jan. 20, 2029. However, after that, there could be a class-action lawsuit from people who feel he duped them in encouraging them to buy the coin. (V)

Mallory McMorrow Is Out in Michigan

The Democratic primary race for the open Senate seat in Michigan was a three-way race among Rep. Haley Stevens, the establishment favorite, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul Sayed, the progressive favorite and son of Egyptian immigrants. McMorrow was once seen as a rising star in the party, but was polling poorly. Yesterday, McMorrow dropped out. She didn't endorse anyone, but could still do so. Welcome to Bernie vs. Hillary, part MMXXVI.

The Republican nominee will be former Rep. Mike Rogers, who almost beat now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) in 2024. If the Democrats don't unite behind the winner of their primary, this could spell the end of their chances to capture the Senate.

If El-Sayed is elected senator, Michigan will be the only state in which the Jewish senator (Slotkin) is fluent in Arabic (as a result of her career at the CIA) but the Arab-American senator is not. (V)

The Governors' Mansions Most Likely to Flip

There are 35 states with an election for governor in November. Here is a ranked list of states where a flip has a high probability of occurring:

• Kansas (D to R): Gov. Laura Kelly (D-KS) is an anomaly: A Democrat elected statewide in a deep red state. She was lucky in her elections that the Republicans fielded weak candidates. She is term-limited so there is a strong chance that Kansas will revert to the mean. In Kansas, that is red, red, red everywhere. Seven Republicans have filed, with Donald Trump endorsing Kansas state Senate President Ty Masterson. Other serious candidates include Kansas SoS Scott Schwab and Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt. Businessman Philip Sarnecki is trying to the buy the nomination. On the Democratic side, state Sens. Cindy Holscher and Ethan Corson are running along with Overland Park Mayor Curt Skoog. Corson is the biggest fundraiser, but Trump won the state by 16 points in 2024.
  
  
• Iowa (R to D): Democrats haven't won a gubernatorial race in Iowa in two decades, but the retirement of Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA) might give them a shot in a blue wave. They are running state auditor Rob Sand, a down-to-earth Bible-quoting bow hunter. The Republicans rejected Donald Trump's pick of Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-IA) and went with carpetbagging farmer and businessman Zach Lahn, who actually lives in Kansas to co-parent children from a previous marriage. While it is not a scandal, he has invested $1 million in a company called FirmTech that markets penis rings and female vibrators. The company is the industry leader in the field of logging nocturnal erections and having detailed data about them transmitted (wirelessly) to the user's smartphone. The product is a real boon for men who like accurate recordkeeping. Iowa is pretty straightlaced and not all parents might want to explain to their children what business their choice for governor is in. Sand has a real shot here. Charlie Cook rates it as a toss-up.
  
  
• Nevada (R to D): Gov. Joe Lombardo (R-NV) is running for a second term. He was the only Republican who flipped a governor's seat in 2022. Now he has to defend it. AG Aaron Ford has the Democratic nomination. Nevada's economy is based on hospitality, and Ford is going to blame Lombardo for hard times. A big problem for Lombardo is that 30% of the electorate in Nevada is Latino and Latinos are none too happy about Trump. Also, the state has a highly transient population, so many voters are recent arrivals and don't know much about Lombardo, so the usual value of incumbency is lower here. Charlie Cook rates it as a toss-up
  
  
• Georgia (R to D): Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) is term limited. This race also features an extremely wealthy right-wing Republican, Rick Jackson, who bought the nomination with $90 million of his own money, defeating Donald Trump's choice. He is very anti-abortion and is trying to run from remarks that he made earlier that he wants to see doctors who perform abortions be indicted. He also wants to tighten the already-tight restrictions on abortion. The Democratic nominee is the former mayor of Atlanta, Keisha Lance Bottoms, who, like 33% of the electorate, is Black. Georgia is an emerging swing state so it could be close.
  
  
• Wisconsin (D to R): Gov. Tony Evers (D-WI) decided not to run for a third term, even though he could have. In January, Trump endorsed Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-WI), which cleared the field. Democrats running for the nomination include Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez (D-WI), former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, and Democratic Socialist state Rep. Francesca Hong (D). Polling is scarce, but Undecided has a big lead at 39%. Second is Barnes at 24%. Rodriguez is third at 12%. Charlie Cook rates it as a toss-up. The primary is Aug. 11.

All five of these could be close, but as we have noted before, races are not independent. Often, when the wind is blowing a certain way, it sweeps in all the candidates from the same party. (V)

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