A Few Election Updates

We'll probably have a few items like this in the next 5-10 days, as election results trickle in, and as those results begin to set the stage for the already-underway 2028 cycle:

U.S. Senate, Alaska: The New York Times has crunched the data, and says that Mary Peltola (D), who currently sits at 48.63% of the vote with 76% reporting, is likely to win. The reason is that, based on exit polling, it looks like most of the votes for the fake Dan Sullivan will become Peltola votes if and when the ranked-choice processing begins. This makes very little sense to us—what was the point of voting for the fake Sullivan if a person really wanted Peltola to win?—but maybe it was some sort of protest vote. Or maybe they got the message that the fake Sullivan was there to help Peltola, but they did not get the message as to how that was supposed to work. We should have further insight sometime today, as Alaska is scheduled to release its first update since Election Day. Indeed, it is at least possible that a winner will be declared sometime today.

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U.S. Senate, Mississippi: By contrast, things in Mississippi are likely to remain murky for a while. In that race, Democrat Scott Colom (D) is up 2,500 votes out of about 1 million cast, with 97% reporting. The main reason that it's taking so long to produce a final tally is that, in the name of "election integrity," Mississippi Secretary of State Michael Watson (R) booted a bunch of people off the voter rolls using... data from credit reporting agencies. Basically, if people didn't have a recent credit history at the address at which they are registered, they were deemed potentially inactive, and were taken off the poll books. Those folks were usually allowed to cast provisional ballots, and what is happening now is that those provisional ballots are being evaluated. A big part of that is that ID was required to cast a provisional ballot, and those who did not have ID with them were given 5 business days to provide that ID to state officials. That deadline expires today.

As we have written many times, this kind of squabbling over ballots rarely results in a shift of more than a couple of hundred votes. That is because they are generally coin flips, and each side tends to lose and win coin flips in roughly equal measure. The only circumstance in which that is not true is if the questionable ballots might have some sort of demographic skew. In this case, they might. The people most likely to lack credit histories are people who do not have a bank account, or who cannot get a credit card. That suggests poor people and/or Black people, two demographics likely to skew toward Colom. Between that and his existing lead, well, if you had to bet, you should probably bet on Colom.

Even when Mississippi makes its final results known, that's almost certainly not the end of it. As we have noted, Mississippi has no provision for recounts, except at the business end of a court order. This being the case, the loser here is almost certain to run to court, because that's their last, best and only option. And because of the screwy use of credit records, something no other state does, the losing side will actually have an argument here. Mississippi has a deadline of December 13 to produce final results and a certificate of attainment. The state may need every one of those days to take care of business.

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U.S. Senate, Ohio: As long as we are on the subject of certificates of attainment, Sen.-elect Sherrod Brown (D-OH) will be seated soon after he receives his. Because this was a special election to complete an unfinished term, he does not have to wait until January 3 to take his seat. As soon as he is confirmed duly elected, he is (again) a United States Senator. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) already had a small margin of error, as he prepares to deal with what figures to be a tough final session of his tenure. That one extra Democratic vote could end up mattering a lot, particularly if some of the retiring Republican members decide to get an early start on the holidays.

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Bye-Bye, Boebert: All of the outlets have now called Rep. Lauren Boebert's (R-CO) race; she lost to Rep.-elect Eileen Laubacher (D-CO) by about 1% of the vote. Boebert, of course, switched to a much safer district last cycle, but she neglected to account for Donald Trump, not to mention a Libertarian candidate (Douglas Mangeris) who took 3% of the vote. Libertarians tend to vote Republican when left with no other choice, so it's fair to guess that Mangeris cost Boebert her job. In any event, good riddance. Boebert showed integrity in demanding the Epstein files, but otherwise her show horsery served to demean her office. So did her indecorous public behavior. And her efforts to publicly shame her trans colleague, Sarah McBride (D-DE), were reprehensible.

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Forever Young? Not So Much: Republicans are something of an endangered species among California officeholders these days, but there are still a few of them. Yesterday, another Republican was confirmed as part of the state's U.S. House delegation, as Ken Calvert won his race, which was very, very ugly. The bad news for the GOP is that this does not add a seat to their tally (currently at or about 165), as the very red district (CA-40) advanced two Republicans to the general. So the only question was whether the member for that seat would be Calvert or the also-Republican Young Kim.

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Billions: As long as we're in California, the one-time assessment on billionaires (Prop. 40) has failed. Don't read too much into this, though. A lot of Californians preferred an ongoing assessment, but there was already another proposition like that on the ballot (an extension on the higher income tax imposed on incomes of $371,000 or more). Expect this basic idea to come back, except in the form of an annual tax at a much lower rate than the 5% that Prop. 40 would have imposed. It is true that Prop. 42 looks likely to pass, and it theoretically forbids new taxes on assets. But what the proposition process giveth, the proposition process can taketh away, and a new wealth tax proposition is likely to contain a provision repealing Prop. 42 (if and when Prop. 42 passes).

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State House, Georgia: The Democrats have flipped another state House, namely the one in Georgia. A total of 91 state House races have been called for the blue team, which means that even if the red team wins the three remaining uncalled races, they will still be in the minority with 89 seats. There will be no trifecta, however, because the Republicans will maintain control of the state Senate. The exact balance there awaits several runoffs, but it's likely to be a slim margin for the GOP (something like 29-26).

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State House, Wisconsin: Meanwhile, Wisconsin Democrats are getting ready to take their new trifecta for a spin. The incoming leaders in the state legislature have promised to re-draw Wisconsin's gerrymandered congressional map, and Gov.-elect David Crowley (D) said he will sign that bill. Currently, the Wisconsin delegation is 6R, 2D. As of January 3, it will be 4R, 4D. Of course, with control of all the marbles, the blue cheese team could try to shoot for something like 6D, 2R in 2028.

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2028 Presidential Election: The Crooked Con was in Washington, DC, this weekend. Well, OK, he's in Washington every weekend, but we're actually referring to a different Crooked Con, namely the annual convention for progressive activists held by Crooked Media. As is wont to be the case, a straw poll of attendees was held, to assess their feeling about the 2028 Democratic presidential field.

Normally, we wouldn't pay any attention to a wonky poll held by a non-representative segment of the electorate, 2 years before an election. But this one was... very interesting. The story that most outlets went with was that Kamala Harris finished 16th, with fewer votes than, well, just about everyone. Who cares about that? It's no secret that the lefties don't like Harris. The much, much bigger story is that the winner of the poll, in a walk, was... Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA), with 38.4% of the vote. That is more than double the total for second-place finisher Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), who took 16.5%.

Readers probably don't need us to point out that Ossoff is centrist/center-left, and can win in purple and/or Southern states. If he is a candidate that progressives would be happy with, potentially forestalling Hillary vs. Bernie, Part 448, then that is something that Democratic operatives will have to sit up and take notice of.

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2028 Senate Elections: Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA), assuming he decides to run for reelection, has drawn his first official challenger. It is Ahmed Moor, a political newbie who is a Democratic Socialist and a Gaza-born Palestinian. That certainly presents a contrast to Fetterman, who has proven to be a centrist and, arguably, the Senate's staunchest advocate for Israel. We very seriously doubt the Senator will run again. And we are absolutely certain that many other folks will be throwing their hats into the ring. Some of those folks will be current officeholders with actual experience, money in the bank, and connections to the Party, to voters and to donors. So, Moor probably shouldn't start picking out swatches for the curtains in his Senate office just yet.

We'll have more on this subject tomorrow—at very least, an update on the new vote tally out of Mississippi, and a check-in on the Kansas and Alaska gubernatorial races. (Z)

Trump Gon' Trump, Part I: Cue the Election Denial

It took a shade less than a week, but Donald Trump has moved on to his usual election denial. Here is what he posted to his social media site for sore losers on Monday morning:

Does anybody really believe that this "Election" was honest. How could the Polls be so wrong??? Some early voting "dumps" were so large that it was impossible to win, no matter how many people went to vote.

It's all about the machines, which are far more important than the voter! President DJT

Thereafter, he rage-posted a bunch of messages from people who ostensibly agree with him that the election was rigged.

And now, shall we shoot some fish in a barrel? Half a dozen ought to do it:

1. As per usual, Trump offered nary a shred of evidence in support of his claims.
   
   
2. If the evidence is so clear, how come it took Trump—always on the lookout for so-called "voter fraud"—nearly a week to figure it out?
   
   
3. That there could be such widespread fraud, enough to not only swing elections, but to do so in landslides, is beyond belief. In particular, consider Texas, where Republicans controlled all the election machinery, and had already shown a willingness to put their thumb on the scale as much as was possible (e.g., getting rid of polling places in blue-leaning parts of the state). Are/were Texas Republicans so incompetent that the Democrats managed to sneak well over a million fraudulent votes in right under their noses? Really?
   
   
4. This is Trump's third theory of what went wrong with the election in just 6 days (which works out to roughly ½ Zacharia per theory). The first theory was that Republicans lost because Trump bravely led the U.S. into the Iran War, unconcerned about the possible electoral costs. The second theory was the Republicans lost because Trump was not on the ballot. And now, the theory is electoral fraud.
   
   
5. This is a radical reversal of Trump's previous theory of how Democrats pull off their shenanigans. Back in 2020, he decreed that they padded the totals on Election Day, once they knew how many votes they needed. Now, his theory is that they rigged the elections before Election Day, by creating false ballots before the polls even opened that morning.
   
   
6. This is also a radical reversal of Trump's previous theory on polling. Back in 2020, when the polls underestimated his results, he declared that was proof that the polls were fake, and Democrats were manipulating those numbers to try to undermine his support and cost him the election. Now, in 2026, with the polls underestimating Democratic support, he's claiming that the polls are real, and are proof that the election results are fake.

Before the election, of course, Trump said that he was "absolutely willing" to accept Democratic wins, if the results were "honest." But in Trump's world, "honest Democratic win" is an oxymoron. Only a Republican can win honestly; a Democratic win is always proof of a dishonest election.

After The Donald uncorked his utterly ridiculous, utterly unsubstantiated claims, he was flayed by pundits and media figures across the spectrum. But the response that really stood out is this one (which we are leaving uncensored, since it was posted to a public platform):

For anyone who believes his bullshit, ask yourself, has he ever prosecuted ANYONE from the 2020 election???

NOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

With the same voting machines that he is complaining about today, as he attempts to build the same narrative.

Any why not? Ask yourself honestly.

Why hasn't Trump, the President of the United States, with control of the DoJ, prosecuted anyone from the 2020 election?

That ought to make some of you very angry especially those of you who lost personal money, personal life relationships, and even went to prison for Trump as you fought against the 2020 election.

The real truth for the 2026 midterms is that something like 14 million Trump/Republican voters stayed home because, for multiple issues, they couldn't support Trump and Republicans anymore.

The polls weren't really wrong, the polls his team showed him knew they were going to lose but lied to him that it would be this bad.

Because his entire political team makes money off of rallies, fundraising, and everything to do with Trump involved in elections.

And if they had told him it was going this bad, for one he might have changed course, but two probably would not have gone out and done rallies everyday like they had him doing.

But really don't feel too sorry for him. His ego and pride are hurt and he knows the big Democrat victory is 100% on him. So this is another attempt to deflect any wrong going off of himself.

That is courtesy of... former representative Marjorie Taylor Greene. It is a strange world, indeed, when Marge Greene is the voice of reason.

Trump is going to continue to issue forth with his stupid prattle, since he cares nothing for evidence or for democracy, only for assuaging his hurt fee-fees. We take the position that it is now the duty of every media member who talks to any Republican politician currently in office (or about to assume office) to ask them: "Do you agree with the President that the election was stolen?" The American people, and these Republicans' constituents, have a right to know where they stand on that question. (Z)

Trump Gon' Trump, Part II: White Power

Less than 48 hours after elevating the nation's most prominent white nationalist (sorry, David Duke!) to the post of White House Chief-of-Staff, Donald Trump toyed around with appointing a guy literally named White as White House Press Secretary (WHPS). Or maybe it was supposed to be a gal literally named White (keep reading).

The guy in question is Dana White, who is well known as a Trump buddy, and has achieved notoriety as the loudmouthed leader/#1 hype man of the UFC MMA promotion. It was on Saturday that Trump first floated his name as possibly the next WHPS. The story quickly went through many iterations: White was not interested, White was flying to Washington to discuss the position, Trump was enthused by the idea, Trump said he was just joking, etc. The latest (and presumably final) story was that White—who definitely was in Washington yesterday—isn't taking the job, and that Trump only said so to distract the press, and send them on a wild goose chase.

We considered writing up the story for Sunday's posting, and for Monday's, before finally deciding to run it today. Having followed things pretty closely, while they were unfolding, we will say this: White was not too likely to take the job (since he's busy with other, much more lucrative, things), but if he HAD been willing, Trump would have hired him in a heartbeat. Have no doubt about that.

The story reiterates a couple of things about Trump, and where his head is currently at. First, as with Stephen Miller, White is an a**hole and a bomb-thrower. Again, the bunker mentality is setting in, and Trump is preparing for war against his many and varied enemies. Second, and this is also true of Stephen Miller, White is a longtime Trump insider. The President has no interest in bringing in new voices who might puncture his bubble. Instead, he's going to double- and triple-down on existing loyalists, and is going to expect them to help maintain the charade that the sky is not, in fact, falling. Approval rating in the 20s, here we come.

There's also one other aspect to the story worth pointing out, namely that it once again highlights Trump's disdain for women. White is a known spousal abuser. The reason it is known is because he was caught on camera slapping his wife. And do you think it's likely that White got unlucky, and just so happened to be right next to a camera the one and only time he engaged in domestic violence? If so, please let us know, because we have some crypto we'd like to sell you. And yet, despite this, Trump pals around with White on a regular basis and, again, was certainly willing to make this sorry excuse for a human being the WHPS.

Finally, we probably should pay off the note about guy Dana White vs. gal Dana White. There is a former Fox contributor, currently working as a spokeswoman for the State Department, who is also named Dana White. She actually has experience with this, Trump loves to hire current and former Fox staffers, and the non-MMA Dana White is Black, and so would allow him to cosplay as "open-minded." There is a theory, and it's far from crazy, that Trump was given a list of suggestions as to the next WHPS, that he thought that "Dana White" referred to the MMA guy, and that he went off half-cocked and posted the notion to social media. If so, then we also have another hurricane-Sharpie situation here, where Trump erred and, rather than admit to it, kept doubling down. Good quality to have in the guy who, theoretically, will be responsible for ending the Iran War. (Z)

Legal Bytes: Schadenfreude Edition

Our focus right now is mostly on the election results, but we can't entirely ignore the courts, because there's still so much going on. These people just can't stop breaking the law.

Bench Slapped: Federal Magistrate Judge Zia Faruqui granted two former FBI agents' motion to dismiss on November 2 and threw out criminal charges brought by the DoJ for allegedly making inconsistent statements in Congressional testimony, which is AG Todd Blanche's go-to accusation when no actual crimes have been committed.

FBI agents Nikki Floris and Bradley Benavides, both decorated FBI agents who have served under presidents of both parties, were Trump targets because they were part of the Foreign Influence Task Force, which was created to combat Russian interference in U.S. elections. The agents had cast doubt on the veracity of a report involving Hunter Biden and his laptop and concluded, along with most other agents, that it was part of a Russian disinformation campaign. But Blanche didn't want to risk another humiliating defeat from a grand jury, so he filed a criminal complaint instead. Taking that route means a judge must make a finding of probable cause before the case can move forward. That didn't go very well. With other former FBI agents in the courtroom, such as Brian Driscoll (aka, "The Drizz," who tried to protect agents from the DOGE purge), Judge Faruqui laid into the government attorneys for an hour. He dismantled every aspect of the case and found no probable cause for any of it. He personally apologized to the agents for having been dragged through the process and concluded, "What has transpired here cannot be described as anything other than weaponization."

Our Take: Once again a federal judge has brought the hammer down on the DoJ for its political persecutions of innocent government officials. Faruqui said the case was clearly rushed so it could be filed before the midterms, to make a splash with voters. "There was simply no other event on the calendar except one—the midterms," he said. "I will not bury my head in the sand and pretend that I cannot read a calendar." The DoJ's losing streak continues. We'll see if they take the hint anytime soon.

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Rock You Like a Hurricane: The U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Florida, and Donald Trump's enforcer in the Sunshine State, has resigned. Jason Reding Quinones, the architect of the so-called grand conspiracy theory that tried to wrap in 2020 election denialism with the 2016 Russia investigation, wasted enormous resources abusing his power and going after former government officials who were not sufficiently subservient to Trump. After coming up empty and losing people like Joseph DeGenova, another nutjob who ran into uncomfortable legal realities, Quinones' incompetence finally caught up with him. On his watch, almost half the office quit and he had to bring in military lawyers to fill the gaps.

Our Take: Another rat has jumped the sinking ship. Let's hope the exodus continues. Quinones had no business leading the U.S. Attorneys' office and hopefully this baseless persecution of those officials assigned to Crossfire Hurricane and other efforts to combat foreign influence in our elections will finally stop. No charges have been filed against anyone, just endless subpoenas, searches and harassment. It's yet another shameful and blatant abuse of power. The Florida Bar should investigate Quinones and revoke his law license.

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Triple Bogey: The judge overseeing the case over the Washington, DC, golf course has really reached the end of her rope. U.S. District Judge for D.C. Ana Reyes has accused the DoJ of lying to her about the status of the project multiple times and of deliberately stonewalling her efforts to find someone with direct knowledge of the plans for the course. She has already enjoined any further work or modifications to the existing course, including tree removal. But now she wants to know whether DoJ or park officials misled her about the plans to remove 400 trees that were cut down while the injunction was in place. She intends to appoint ex-prosecutor Jessie Liu as a special master to investigate the government's conduct. The parties have a chance to weigh in before she makes it official.

Our Take: Well, this just got real. Readers may recall that Jessie Liu is a former U.S. Attorney for D.C. and was nominated by Trump to be an Associate Attorney General before she was forced out for being insufficiently MAGA. This type of investigation is a precursor to holding administration officials in contempt if it's found that they violated ethics rules or lied to the court. Reyes took this step at the end of a long and contentious hearing where she was given the run-around by DoJ lawyers, including Stanley Woodward, who were flippant and disrespectful. Not a great way to avoid a finding of contempt, but these guys really like to push the envelope.

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Lies, and the Lying Liars Who Tell Them: U.S. Attorney Andrew Boutros, whose attempt to prosecute protesters at a Broadview detention facility (the Broadview Six case) fell apart spectacularly due to grand jury misconduct, has been ordered to testify in a hearing to determine whether he made false statements to the judge about the origins of the case. U.S. District Judge April Perry, another judge at the end of her rope, ordered Boutros to testify at a Nov. 16 hearing regarding statements he made in court filings denying any communication with the White House regarding charging decisions.

The order comes amidst a civil case brought by former FBI agent Douglas DePodesta against Boutros, FBI Director Kash Patel and Todd Blanche. The suit alleges that Boutros falsely claimed to the White House that DePodesta was engaged in a conspiracy to tank the case with his sister-in-law, who represents one of the Broadview Six defendants. DePodesta was the former Special Agent in Charge of the Chicago FBI office and claims that he was pressured to investigate the case after Boutros met with Patel and Blanche in DePodesta's office. This claim contradicts Boutros' statements to Judge Perry. Stanley Woodward inserted himself in these proceedings as well, and asked the judge to "clarify" her order. Perry called the request "cagey" and a delay tactic and wrote in her Nov. 2 order that "generally, attorneys appreciate the opportunity to provide evidence that they have not lied to the court, and the court wanted to provide that opportunity to these prosecutors."

Our Take: Wow, wow, wow. How many times can we say "unprecedented" and "out of bounds" and "against all ethical and prosecutorial guidelines"? Woodward and the DoJ are just openly challenging and flouting the court's authority and taking a mocking tone while doing it. And it sounds like Boutros is just blatantly lying to the court and trying to cover it up. As a reminder, these people are not consigliere for mafiosi. They are supposed to be representing the people of the United States and enforcing laws on our behalf. We can't lose sight of their degradation and misconduct.

In an interesting development, AUSA William Hogan, one of the attorneys called to testify along with Boutros, has hired his own counsel, who asked for a week's delay in the hearing until Nov. 23 to prepare his client because it's "possible" the government's interests "may not be aligned" with his. That sounds like someone ready to spill the tea. Stay tuned.

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Hoppin' John: The Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation into the Supreme Court leak of the Dobbs decision that overturned Roe v. Wade. It's being headed up by Jeanine Pirro, who has sent grand jury subpoenas to Court employees. She's assigned one of her top cronies prosecutors, Carlton Davis, to the case. He was in charge of the failed prosecution of six Democratic lawmakers who made a video reminding military personnel of their right to refuse illegal orders. Neither he nor Pirro could say what law was broken by leaking the opinion.

Our Take: This one is a real head-scratcher. Whose score is this settling? Anti-abortion groups? The Court is not going to want Pirro poking her nose into its business, especially when the Court did its own investigation and came up with bupkis (supposedly), because everyone knows the leak came from Justice Samuel Alito's office. Perhaps this is to appease the MAGA conspiracy theorists who are convinced the leak came from a liberal office. But you can bet that Chief Justice John Roberts is going to do his best to shut all this down. If he's not successful, grab your popcorn, because this oughta be quite the show.

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The Last Frontier: Attorney General Todd Blanche has doubled down on his bogus lawsuit against the state of Alaska. He has now sent what are called "target letters" to some election officials, and at least one voting rights group attorney. These letters are typically sent before the recipient is indicted. Marc Elias, an attorney who has been at the forefront of many significant legal cases challenging Trump's actions to overturn the 2020 election, and his overreach in his second term, was sent one of these letters. In response, he said, "We will not be intimidated by a sham investigation. We are going to keep working around the clock to support our clients and make sure President Trump and his party enjoy a well-deserved beating at the ballot box."

Our Take: Once again, Trump's subservient DoJ is just abusing the prosecutor's office to punish a political adversary. Not surprisingly, none of the target letters mentions what crime has allegedly been committed. And we've seen how much trouble the DoJ lawyers have in trying to secure an indictment against innocent people. It just got even more difficult, because, as we note above, a preliminary review of ballots that have been cast in Alaska shows that if the Senate election goes to ranked-choice voting, that will actually help Mary Peltola. As it turns out, most voters who ranked Dan J. Sullivan Jr. first ranked Peltola second, not the incumbent Sullivan. So, there goes the theory that voters were confused by the two Sullivans. But, more importantly, it's still not a crime to recruit a candidate with the same name as another candidate.

And with that, court is adjourned. (L)

Local Bytes: Deep in the Heart of Texas

We needed a little time to get organized, but as promised, we're going to run reports from readers about election developments in their neck of the woods. Today, as the headline suggests, we have some reports from the Lone Star State:

G.B. in Collin County, TX: Yee-haw, what a night.

I went into Election Day cautiously optimistic about the Senate, and by the end of it there was a blue Texas that I wasn't sure I'd see in my lifetime, let alone in my twenties. The state wasn't even particularly close in the end; Sen.-elect James Talarico (D) crushed Ken Paxton (R) by twelve points, Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa (D) comfortably blocked Gov. Greg Abbott (R) from a fourth term as governor by six points, and the two of them together had coattails to flip every statewide office on the ballot, flip the state house, and come within shouting distance of a trifecta in 2028. My home turf in Collin County flipped to the Democrats for the first time since native son Lyndon B. Johnson's 1964 landslide. The governor, lieutenant governor and speaker of the state house will all be women, and the chief justice of the Texas Supreme Court will be a Democratic lesbian. That court's 9-0 GOP majority is now down to 5-4, within reach of flipping in 2028 when more seats are on the ballot. The state's board of education is also, as of this writing, expected to narrowly flip to the Democrats; something that will affect students across the country due to how large a market the state is for textbooks. Even when I came around to thinking Talarico could win, I didn't think it would come with completely upending the character of the state government overnight as a bonus.

That said, the GOP did hold on to control of the state Senate; it appears to be the only Republican gerrymander in the country that held. This may end up being to Hinojosa's benefit, long-term. By having to negotiate to get appointments confirmed and legislation passed, it puts a check on moving so quickly that voters convinced to give the Democrats a chance by gas prices, data centers and a war could get scared off. If the sky doesn't fall and the state economy keeps chugging along, then she could end up like Gov. Phil Scott (R-VT); a cross-party governor that doesn't rock the boat because the legislature won't let them go all-out. If there is a path to winning a second term in 2030 and cementing a competitive future for the state, that is probably it.

It is the dawn of a new era, deep in the heart of Texas, now that the default thought about the state has gone from "It'll never go blue!" to "How did it go blue?" History only looks inevitable once it already happened; it took a perfect storm to create a blue monsoon that flipped the state. But now that it has happened once, it can happen again. I expect that Texas will be a real battleground in 2028, both for president and for the possibility of flipping the state Senate and getting a trifecta. Each morning when I pull up Electoral-Vote.com, seeing my home state in that shade of solid, deep, royal blue doesn't quite feel real. But it hasn't gotten old yet.

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R.T. in Arlington, TX: It is 7:00 a.m. CT on Wednesday. You guys wrote that Tarrant County (greater Fort Worth) would be a bellwether. My jaw is scraping the floor and the outcome is so far beyond my fantasies that it looks like the stars in the windshield do when a starship goes into hyperspace.

I drilled into the county results and want to point out that the true indication of how deep the resentment of Republican leadership goes are the results in the elections for judges for our civil, criminal, family and probate courts. These positions have no political decision-making and no opportunity for political grandstanding. Few voters ever know the names of these judges. As a practical matter, they are a pure party preference or coin-toss decision for a voter. Republicans have historically been so dominant that about half the (R) judges ran unopposed this time. Those unopposed judges got vote totals just shy of 400,000. In every contested judge race, the Republican lost 55-45 and the total vote count was just over 700,000.

Results were extremely uniform from race to race. That tells me that a lot of voters feel like I do: that no Republican, for any office, no matter how objectively decent they might seem, deserves my vote, even when no one is running against them. Even the very best Republicans have been sitting silently on their hands while their party perpetrated a disaster on us all. I now doubt that even Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) could have won.

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J.P.R. in Westminster, CO: I just couldn't be more pleased for my home state this Wednesday morning. In previous weeks, my mom and sister—both blue-voting north Texas denizens (Hood and Denton counties, respectively)—seemed in utter despair that Ken Paxton would pull it off despite polling, probably in no small part due to Elon Musk's ad blitz. They both tend toward the pessimistic, and I learned long ago that chiming in with any countering optimism yielded little in productive returns, so I would just casually note "[James] Talarico sure did draw a crowd in Lubbock the other night, though." Them: "Yeah. But..."—not that I could blame them at all.

I texted them at 9:08 pm CT, though I wanted to at least an hour earlier: "Sure don't wanna jinx things, but it sure is looking promising." My sister: "Shut up!!" My mom: "Hush!" And then, moments later, my sister: "Abbott is conceding!!" That, even more than Gina Hinojosa's win, was the genuine shock of the evening for me. Me: "I think it's because I wore my shirt today."

(NB: My eldest sister, who lives in Vermont, who actually went to church with a pre-adolescent James Talarico and his family in Austin, but who 20 years ago all but gave up on everything Texas, was already asleep but rejoined the conversation early this morning: "OOOOO MMMMM GGGG.")

This, of course, can't be understated. I am so relieved at the prospect of not having to worry about my college-aged niece's healthcare being in jeopardy should she need something uterus-involved or uterus-adjacent. I can fear less for my young adult trans niece's well-being. Bonus: They're both Latina, and they just got to see what a brown woman could do against an old white man, for whom the cruelty is the point,when they and their friends get out to vote.

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T.F. in Austin, TX: I don't often make political predictions, but in September 2025, after James Talarico declared his candidacy for the Senate, I e-mailed a prediction to you that ended with: "I'm cautiously optimistic that [Talarico] could be this year's big surprise candidate."

I'm humble enough to realize that I was only partially right about that. He was one of many surprise candidates in Texas and around the country this year.

The feeling where I live just north of Austin is euphoric. We have hoped for decades for any Democrat to win statewide in Texas, and yesterday all of them did.

The state government's attacks on our public schools, on trans people, on immigrants and on reason will, for a time at least, come to a stop.

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H.M. in Hannover, Germany: From the New York Times; a graphic is worth a thousand words:

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D.T.M. in San Francisco, CA: There are now more Democrats in Texas than there are in New York State. Let that sink in.

If readers have insight into their state and/or local elections, please do let us know at comments@electoral-vote.com. (Z)

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---The Votemaster and Zenger