This page contains the current averages for each state for the presidential race calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (e.g., RCP and 538) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.
State | Democrat | Dem % | Republican | GOP % | Lead | End date |
Alabama | Harris | 34% | Trump | 65% | Trump +31 | Nov 15 |
Alaska | Harris | 41% | Trump | 55% | Trump +14 | Nov 15 |
Arizona | Harris | 47% | Trump | 52% | Trump +5 | Nov 15 |
Arkansas | Harris | 34% | Trump | 64% | Trump +30 | Nov 15 |
California | Harris | 59% | Trump | 38% | Harris +21 | Nov 15 |
Colorado | Harris | 54% | Trump | 43% | Harris +11 | Nov 15 |
Connecticut | Harris | 56% | Trump | 42% | Harris +14 | Nov 15 |
D.C. | Harris | 92% | Trump | 7% | Harris +85 | Nov 15 |
Delaware | Harris | 57% | Trump | 42% | Harris +15 | Nov 15 |
Florida | Harris | 43% | Trump | 56% | Trump +13 | Nov 15 |
Georgia | Harris | 49% | Trump | 51% | Trump +2 | Nov 15 |
Hawaii | Harris | 61% | Trump | 38% | Harris +23 | Nov 15 |
Idaho | Harris | 30% | Trump | 67% | Trump +37 | Nov 15 |
Illinois | Harris | 54% | Trump | 44% | Harris +10 | Nov 15 |
Indiana | Harris | 40% | Trump | 59% | Trump +19 | Nov 15 |
Iowa | Harris | 43% | Trump | 56% | Trump +13 | Nov 15 |
Kansas | Harris | 41% | Trump | 57% | Trump +16 | Nov 15 |
Kentucky | Harris | 34% | Trump | 65% | Trump +31 | Nov 15 |
Louisiana | Harris | 38% | Trump | 60% | Trump +22 | Nov 15 |
Maine | Harris | 52% | Trump | 45% | Harris +7 | Nov 15 |
Maryland | Harris | 62% | Trump | 35% | Harris +27 | Nov 15 |
Massachusetts | Harris | 61% | Trump | 36% | Harris +25 | Nov 15 |
Michigan | Harris | 48% | Trump | 50% | Trump +2 | Nov 15 |
Minnesota | Harris | 51% | Trump | 47% | Harris +4 | Nov 15 |
Mississippi | Harris | 37% | Trump | 61% | Trump +24 | Nov 15 |
Missouri | Harris | 40% | Trump | 59% | Trump +19 | Nov 15 |
Montana | Harris | 38% | Trump | 58% | Trump +20 | Nov 15 |
Nebraska | Harris | 40% | Trump | 60% | Trump +20 | Nov 15 |
Nevada | Harris | 48% | Trump | 51% | Trump +3 | Nov 15 |
New Hampshire | Harris | 51% | Trump | 48% | Harris +3 | Nov 15 |
New Jersey | Harris | 52% | Trump | 46% | Harris +6 | Nov 15 |
New Mexico | Harris | 52% | Trump | 46% | Harris +6 | Nov 15 |
New York | Harris | 56% | Trump | 44% | Harris +12 | Nov 15 |
North Carolina | Harris | 48% | Trump | 51% | Trump +3 | Nov 15 |
North Dakota | Harris | 31% | Trump | 67% | Trump +36 | Nov 15 |
Ohio | Harris | 44% | Trump | 55% | Trump +11 | Nov 15 |
Oklahoma | Harris | 32% | Trump | 66% | Trump +34 | Nov 15 |
Oregon | Harris | 55% | Trump | 42% | Harris +13 | Nov 15 |
Pennsylvania | Harris | 49% | Trump | 50% | Trump +1 | Nov 15 |
Rhode Island | Harris | 55% | Trump | 42% | Harris +13 | Nov 15 |
South Carolina | Harris | 40% | Trump | 58% | Trump +18 | Nov 15 |
South Dakota | Harris | 34% | Trump | 63% | Trump +29 | Nov 15 |
Tennessee | Harris | 34% | Trump | 64% | Trump +30 | Nov 15 |
Texas | Harris | 42% | Trump | 56% | Trump +14 | Nov 15 |
Utah | Harris | 38% | Trump | 60% | Trump +22 | Nov 15 |
Vermont | Harris | 64% | Trump | 32% | Harris +32 | Nov 15 |
Virginia | Harris | 52% | Trump | 46% | Harris +6 | Nov 15 |
Washington | Harris | 58% | Trump | 39% | Harris +19 | Nov 15 |
West Virginia | Harris | 28% | Trump | 70% | Trump +42 | Nov 15 |
Wisconsin | Harris | 49% | Trump | 50% | Trump +1 | Nov 15 |
Wyoming | Harris | 26% | Trump | 72% | Trump +46 | Nov 15 |