State Averages for President

This page contains the current averages for each state for the presidential race calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (RCP, 538, HP, TPM, etc.) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Biden 20% Trump 20% +0% Primary Tue. March 5
Alaska Biden 20% Trump 20% +0% Primary Tue. March 5
Arizona Biden 2% Trump 2% +0% Primary Tue. March 19
Arkansas Biden 20% Trump 20% +0% Primary Tue. March 5
California Biden 20% Trump 20% +0% Primary Tue. March 5
Colorado Biden 20% Trump 20% +0% Primary Tue. March 5
Connecticut Biden 40% Trump 48% +8% Primary Tue. April 2
D.C. Biden 50% Trump 43% +7% Primary Sun. March 3
Delaware Biden 40% Trump 48% +8% Primary Tue. April 2
Florida Biden 2% Trump 2% +0% Primary Tue. March 19
Georgia Biden 1% Trump 1% +0% Primary Tue. March 12
Hawaii Biden 1% Trump 1% +0% Caucus Tue. March 12
Idaho Biden 43% Trump 43% +0% Caucus Sat. March 2
Trump 85%
Haley 13%
Illinois Biden 2% Trump 2% +0% Primary Tue. March 19
Indiana Biden 21% Trump 21% +0% Primary Tue. May 7
Iowa Biden 41% Trump 41% +0% Caucus Mon. January 15
Trump 51%
DeSantis 21%
Haley 19%
Kansas Biden 2% Trump 2% +0% Primary Tue. March 19
Kentucky Biden 21% Trump 21% +0% Primary Tue. May 21
Louisiana Biden 2% Trump 2% +0% Primary Sat. March 23
Maine Biden 20% Trump 20% +0% Primary Tue. March 5
Maryland Biden 21% Trump 21% +0% Primary Tue. May 14
Massachusetts Biden 20% Trump 20% +0% Primary Tue. March 5
Michigan Biden 41% Trump 41% +0% Primary Tue. Feb 27 for 16 delegates
Trump 68%
Haley 27%
Trump also won 39 delegates at the Mar. 2 convention
Minnesota Biden 20% Trump 20% +0% Primary Tue. March 5
Mississippi Biden 1% Trump 1% +0% Primary Tue. March 12
Missouri Biden 40% Trump 48% +8% Caucus Sat. March 2 with no delegates finalized
District conventions on Sat. Apr. 6
State convention on Sat. May 4
Montana Biden 32% Trump 53% +21% Primary Tue. June 4
Nebraska Biden 21% Trump 21% +0% Primary Tue. May 14
Nevada Biden 41% Trump 41% +0% There was a meaningless beauty contest Tue. Feb. 6
Delegates were chosen at the Thu. Feb. 8 caucus
Trump 99%
Binkley 1%
New Hampshire Biden 41% Trump 41% +0% Primary Tue. January 23
Trump 54%
Haley 43%
DeSantis 1%
New Jersey Biden 32% Trump 53% +21% Primary Tue. June 4
New Mexico Biden 32% Trump 53% +21% Primary Tue. June 4
New York Biden 40% Trump 48% +8% Primary Tue. April 2
North Carolina Biden 20% Trump 20% +0% Primary Tue. March 5
North Dakota Biden 50% Trump 43% +7% Caucus Mon. March 4
Ohio Biden 2% Trump 2% +0% Primary Tue. March 19
Oklahoma Biden 20% Trump 20% +0% Primary Tue. March 5
Oregon Biden 21% Trump 21% +0% Beauty contest Tue. May 21 but the
delegates will be chosen at the Sat. May 25 state convention
Pennsylvania Biden 40% Trump 48% +8% Primary Tue. April 23
Rhode Island Biden 40% Trump 48% +8% Primary Tue. April 2
South Carolina Biden 41% Trump 41% +0% Primary Sat. February 24
Trump 60%
Haley 40%
South Dakota Biden 32% Trump 53% +21% Primary Tue. June 4
Tennessee Biden 20% Trump 20% +0% Primary Tue. March 5
Texas Biden 20% Trump 20% +0% Primary Tue. March 5
Utah Biden 20% Trump 20% +0% Primary Tue. March 5
Vermont Biden 20% Trump 20% +0% Primary Tue. March 5
Virginia Biden 20% Trump 20% +0% Primary Tue. March 5
Washington Biden 1% Trump 1% +0% Primary Tue. March 12
West Virginia Biden 21% Trump 21% +0% Primary Tue. May 14
Wisconsin Biden 40% Trump 48% +8% Primary Tue. April 2
Wyoming Biden 40% Trump 48% +8% County conventions Sat. Mar. 2 to Sun Mar. 10
Six Delegates chosen at state convention Thu.-Sat. Apr. 18-20
Biden % Trump % +0% 182