State Averages for President

This page contains the current averages for each state for the presidential race calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (RCP, 538, HP, TPM, etc.) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Biden 32% Trump 60% +28% Apr 21
Alaska Biden 43% Trump 50% +7% Apr 21
Arizona Biden 44% Trump 49% +5% Jul 23
Arkansas Biden 42% Trump 48% +6% Apr 21
California Biden 55% Trump 30% +25% Jul 02
Colorado Biden 49% Trump 43% +6% Apr 21
Connecticut Biden 55% Trump 38% +17% Apr 21
D.C. Biden 93% Trump 6% +87% Jan 01
Delaware Biden 51% Trump 40% +11% Apr 21
Florida Biden 44% Trump 50% +6% Jul 16
Georgia Biden 46% Trump 48% +2% Jul 23
Hawaii Biden 55% Trump 33% +22% Apr 21
Idaho Biden 30% Trump 62% +32% Apr 21
Illinois Biden 53% Trump 40% +13% Apr 21
Indiana Biden 43% Trump 47% +4% Apr 21
Iowa Biden 32% Trump 50% +18% Jun 14
Kansas Biden 44% Trump 49% +5% Apr 21
Kentucky Biden 35% Trump 60% +25% Apr 21
Louisiana Biden 33% Trump 48% +15% Apr 26
Maine Biden 54% Trump 45% +9% Jul 25
Maryland Biden 56% Trump 30% +26% Jun 20
Massachusetts Biden 47% Trump 29% +18% Jul 18
Michigan Biden 44% Trump 45% +1% Jul 24
Minnesota Biden 49% Trump 45% +4% Jun 18
Mississippi Biden 42% Trump 51% +9% Apr 21
Missouri Biden 43% Trump 57% +14% Jun 19
Montana Biden 34% Trump 59% +25% Apr 21
Nebraska Biden 34% Trump 57% +23% Apr 25
Nevada Biden 41% Trump 46% +5% Jul 16
New Hampshire Biden 47% Trump 43% +4% Jul 25
New Jersey Biden 51% Trump 42% +9% Apr 21
New Mexico Biden 48% Trump 41% +7% Jun 14
New York Biden 52% Trump 41% +11% Jul 19
North Carolina Biden 38% Trump 47% +9% Jul 16
North Dakota Biden 37% Trump 55% +18% Apr 21
Ohio Biden 41% Trump 48% +7% Jun 06
Oklahoma Biden 40% Trump 53% +13% Apr 21
Oregon Biden 51% Trump 39% +12% Apr 21
Pennsylvania Biden 45% Trump 49% +4% Jul 23
Rhode Island Biden 40% Trump 33% +7% Jun 14
South Carolina Biden 40% Trump 52% +12% Apr 21
South Dakota Biden 31% Trump 50% +19% May 13
Tennessee Biden 29% Trump 47% +18% May 09
Texas Biden 40% Trump 49% +9% Jul 01
Utah Biden 25% Trump 57% +32% Jun 07
Vermont Biden 56% Trump 35% +21% Apr 21
Virginia Biden 47% Trump 43% +4% Jul 15
Washington Biden 50% Trump 36% +14% Jul 13
West Virginia Biden 31% Trump 63% +32% Apr 21
Wisconsin Biden 47% Trump 49% +2% Jul 23
Wyoming Biden 26% Trump 67% +41% Apr 21