This page contains the current averages for each state for the presidential race calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (e.g., RCP and 538) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.
State | Democrat | Dem % | Republican | GOP % | Lead | End date |
Alabama | Harris | 32% | Trump | 60% | Trump +28 | Apr 21 |
Alaska | Harris | 43% | Trump | 52% | Trump +9 | Sep 28 |
Arizona | Harris | 49% | Trump | 50% | Trump +1 | Sep 28 |
Arkansas | Harris | 40% | Trump | 55% | Trump +15 | Sep 06 |
California | Harris | 58% | Trump | 36% | Harris +22 | Sep 25 |
Colorado | Harris | 53% | Trump | 42% | Harris +11 | Sep 18 |
Connecticut | Harris | 53% | Trump | 37% | Harris +16 | Sep 18 |
D.C. | Harris | 93% | Trump | 6% | Harris +87 | Jan 01 |
Delaware | Harris | 56% | Trump | 36% | Harris +20 | Sep 19 |
Florida | Harris | 46% | Trump | 50% | Trump +4 | Sep 26 |
Georgia | Harris | 48% | Trump | 50% | Trump +2 | Sep 29 |
Hawaii | Harris | 55% | Trump | 33% | Harris +22 | Apr 21 |
Idaho | Harris | 30% | Trump | 62% | Trump +32 | Apr 21 |
Illinois | Harris | 58% | Trump | 42% | Harris +16 | Aug 29 |
Indiana | Harris | 40% | Trump | 57% | Trump +17 | Sep 13 |
Iowa | Harris | 43% | Trump | 47% | Trump +4 | Sep 11 |
Kansas | Harris | 44% | Trump | 49% | Trump +5 | Apr 21 |
Kentucky | Harris | 35% | Trump | 60% | Trump +25 | Apr 21 |
Louisiana | Harris | 33% | Trump | 48% | Trump +15 | Apr 26 |
Maine | Harris | 50% | Trump | 41% | Harris +9 | Sep 15 |
Maryland | Harris | 64% | Trump | 32% | Harris +32 | Sep 23 |
Massachusetts | Harris | 63% | Trump | 33% | Harris +30 | Sep 18 |
Michigan | Harris | 49% | Trump | 47% | Harris +2 | Sep 26 |
Minnesota | Harris | 49% | Trump | 43% | Harris +6 | Sep 18 |
Mississippi | Harris | 42% | Trump | 51% | Trump +9 | Apr 21 |
Missouri | Harris | 43% | Trump | 53% | Trump +10 | Sep 13 |
Montana | Harris | 41% | Trump | 56% | Trump +15 | Aug 29 |
Nebraska | Harris | 40% | Trump | 56% | Trump +16 | Sep 22 |
Nevada | Harris | 50% | Trump | 47% | Harris +3 | Sep 25 |
New Hampshire | Harris | 53% | Trump | 43% | Harris +10 | Sep 16 |
New Jersey | Harris | 51% | Trump | 42% | Harris +9 | Apr 21 |
New Mexico | Harris | 50% | Trump | 41% | Harris +9 | Sep 18 |
New York | Harris | 54% | Trump | 40% | Harris +14 | Sep 25 |
North Carolina | Harris | 49% | Trump | 49% | Tied | Sep 28 |
North Dakota | Harris | 37% | Trump | 55% | Trump +18 | Apr 21 |
Ohio | Harris | 44% | Trump | 50% | Trump +6 | Sep 26 |
Oklahoma | Harris | 40% | Trump | 56% | Trump +16 | Aug 30 |
Oregon | Harris | 51% | Trump | 39% | Harris +12 | Apr 21 |
Pennsylvania | Harris | 50% | Trump | 48% | Harris +2 | Sep 28 |
Rhode Island | Harris | 54% | Trump | 39% | Harris +15 | Sep 19 |
South Carolina | Harris | 42% | Trump | 52% | Trump +10 | Sep 29 |
South Dakota | Harris | 31% | Trump | 50% | Trump +19 | May 13 |
Tennessee | Harris | 37% | Trump | 63% | Trump +26 | Aug 29 |
Texas | Harris | 47% | Trump | 52% | Trump +5 | Sep 26 |
Utah | Harris | 28% | Trump | 60% | Trump +32 | Aug 09 |
Vermont | Harris | 70% | Trump | 29% | Harris +41 | Aug 19 |
Virginia | Harris | 48% | Trump | 42% | Harris +6 | Sep 24 |
Washington | Harris | 53% | Trump | 32% | Harris +21 | Sep 06 |
West Virginia | Harris | 34% | Trump | 61% | Trump +27 | Aug 27 |
Wisconsin | Harris | 50% | Trump | 48% | Harris +2 | Sep 26 |
Wyoming | Harris | 26% | Trump | 67% | Trump +41 | Apr 21 |