This page contains the current averages for each state for the presidential race calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (RCP, 538, HP, TPM, etc.) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.
State | Democrat | Dem % | Republican | GOP % | Lead | End date |
Alabama | Biden | 32% | Trump | 60% | +28% | Apr 21 |
Alaska | Biden | 43% | Trump | 50% | +7% | Apr 21 |
Arizona | Biden | 44% | Trump | 49% | +5% | Jul 23 |
Arkansas | Biden | 42% | Trump | 48% | +6% | Apr 21 |
California | Biden | 55% | Trump | 30% | +25% | Jul 02 |
Colorado | Biden | 49% | Trump | 43% | +6% | Apr 21 |
Connecticut | Biden | 55% | Trump | 38% | +17% | Apr 21 |
D.C. | Biden | 93% | Trump | 6% | +87% | Jan 01 |
Delaware | Biden | 51% | Trump | 40% | +11% | Apr 21 |
Florida | Biden | 44% | Trump | 50% | +6% | Jul 16 |
Georgia | Biden | 46% | Trump | 48% | +2% | Jul 23 |
Hawaii | Biden | 55% | Trump | 33% | +22% | Apr 21 |
Idaho | Biden | 30% | Trump | 62% | +32% | Apr 21 |
Illinois | Biden | 53% | Trump | 40% | +13% | Apr 21 |
Indiana | Biden | 43% | Trump | 47% | +4% | Apr 21 |
Iowa | Biden | 32% | Trump | 50% | +18% | Jun 14 |
Kansas | Biden | 44% | Trump | 49% | +5% | Apr 21 |
Kentucky | Biden | 35% | Trump | 60% | +25% | Apr 21 |
Louisiana | Biden | 33% | Trump | 48% | +15% | Apr 26 |
Maine | Biden | 54% | Trump | 45% | +9% | Jul 25 |
Maryland | Biden | 56% | Trump | 30% | +26% | Jun 20 |
Massachusetts | Biden | 47% | Trump | 29% | +18% | Jul 18 |
Michigan | Biden | 44% | Trump | 45% | +1% | Jul 24 |
Minnesota | Biden | 49% | Trump | 45% | +4% | Jun 18 |
Mississippi | Biden | 42% | Trump | 51% | +9% | Apr 21 |
Missouri | Biden | 43% | Trump | 57% | +14% | Jun 19 |
Montana | Biden | 34% | Trump | 59% | +25% | Apr 21 |
Nebraska | Biden | 34% | Trump | 57% | +23% | Apr 25 |
Nevada | Biden | 41% | Trump | 46% | +5% | Jul 16 |
New Hampshire | Biden | 47% | Trump | 43% | +4% | Jul 25 |
New Jersey | Biden | 51% | Trump | 42% | +9% | Apr 21 |
New Mexico | Biden | 48% | Trump | 41% | +7% | Jun 14 |
New York | Biden | 52% | Trump | 41% | +11% | Jul 19 |
North Carolina | Biden | 38% | Trump | 47% | +9% | Jul 16 |
North Dakota | Biden | 37% | Trump | 55% | +18% | Apr 21 |
Ohio | Biden | 41% | Trump | 48% | +7% | Jun 06 |
Oklahoma | Biden | 40% | Trump | 53% | +13% | Apr 21 |
Oregon | Biden | 51% | Trump | 39% | +12% | Apr 21 |
Pennsylvania | Biden | 45% | Trump | 49% | +4% | Jul 23 |
Rhode Island | Biden | 40% | Trump | 33% | +7% | Jun 14 |
South Carolina | Biden | 40% | Trump | 52% | +12% | Apr 21 |
South Dakota | Biden | 31% | Trump | 50% | +19% | May 13 |
Tennessee | Biden | 29% | Trump | 47% | +18% | May 09 |
Texas | Biden | 40% | Trump | 49% | +9% | Jul 01 |
Utah | Biden | 25% | Trump | 57% | +32% | Jun 07 |
Vermont | Biden | 56% | Trump | 35% | +21% | Apr 21 |
Virginia | Biden | 47% | Trump | 43% | +4% | Jul 15 |
Washington | Biden | 50% | Trump | 36% | +14% | Jul 13 |
West Virginia | Biden | 31% | Trump | 63% | +32% | Apr 21 |
Wisconsin | Biden | 47% | Trump | 49% | +2% | Jul 23 |
Wyoming | Biden | 26% | Trump | 67% | +41% | Apr 21 |