State Averages for President

This page contains the current averages for each state for the presidential race calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (RCP, 538, HP, TPM, etc.) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Biden 32% Trump 60% +28% Apr 21
Alaska Biden 43% Trump 50% +7% Apr 21
Arizona Biden 45% Trump 51% +6% Jun 04
Arkansas Biden 42% Trump 48% +6% Apr 21
California Biden 55% Trump 31% +24% Jun 02
Colorado Biden 49% Trump 43% +6% Apr 21
Connecticut Biden 55% Trump 38% +17% Apr 21
D.C. Biden 93% Trump 6% +87% Jan 01
Delaware Biden 51% Trump 40% +11% Apr 21
Florida Biden 45% Trump 50% +5% Jun 09
Georgia Biden 44% Trump 49% +5% Jun 03
Hawaii Biden 55% Trump 33% +22% Apr 21
Idaho Biden 30% Trump 62% +32% Apr 21
Illinois Biden 53% Trump 40% +13% Apr 21
Indiana Biden 43% Trump 47% +4% Apr 21
Iowa Biden 45% Trump 47% +2% Apr 21
Kansas Biden 44% Trump 49% +5% Apr 21
Kentucky Biden 35% Trump 60% +25% Apr 21
Louisiana Biden 33% Trump 48% +15% Apr 26
Maine Biden 43% Trump 44% +1% Apr 30
Maryland Biden 58% Trump 34% +24% May 08
Massachusetts Biden 58% Trump 30% +28% May 30
Michigan Biden 47% Trump 46% +1% May 31
Minnesota Biden 45% Trump 41% +4% Jun 05
Mississippi Biden 42% Trump 51% +9% Apr 21
Missouri Biden 43% Trump 49% +6% Apr 21
Montana Biden 34% Trump 59% +25% Apr 21
Nebraska Biden 34% Trump 57% +23% Apr 25
Nevada Biden 45% Trump 50% +5% Jun 04
New Hampshire Biden 45% Trump 43% +2% May 20
New Jersey Biden 51% Trump 42% +9% Apr 21
New Mexico Biden 49% Trump 42% +7% Apr 21
New York Biden 55% Trump 45% +10% May 29
North Carolina Biden 43% Trump 48% +5% Jun 03
North Dakota Biden 37% Trump 55% +18% Apr 21
Ohio Biden 41% Trump 48% +7% Jun 06
Oklahoma Biden 40% Trump 53% +13% Apr 21
Oregon Biden 51% Trump 39% +12% Apr 21
Pennsylvania Biden 45% Trump 47% +2% Jun 06
Rhode Island Biden 60% Trump 40% +20% May 20
South Carolina Biden 40% Trump 52% +12% Apr 21
South Dakota Biden 31% Trump 50% +19% May 13
Tennessee Biden 29% Trump 47% +18% May 09
Texas Biden 37% Trump 46% +9% Apr 21
Utah Biden 25% Trump 57% +32% Jun 07
Vermont Biden 56% Trump 35% +21% Apr 21
Virginia Biden 48% Trump 48% +0% Jun 04
Washington Biden 49% Trump 37% +12% May 16
West Virginia Biden 31% Trump 63% +32% Apr 21
Wisconsin Biden 40% Trump 41% +1% May 31
Wyoming Biden 26% Trump 67% +41% Apr 21