This page contains the current averages for each state for the presidential race calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (RCP, 538, HP, TPM, etc.) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.
State | Democrat | Dem % | Republican | GOP % | Lead | End date |
Alabama | Biden | 38% | Trump | 57% | +19% | Mar 03 |
Alaska | Biden | 43% | Trump | 50% | +7% | Apr 21 |
Arizona | Biden | 48% | Trump | 52% | +4% | Apr 29 |
Arkansas | Biden | 42% | Trump | 48% | +6% | Apr 21 |
California | Biden | 56% | Trump | 38% | +18% | Apr 21 |
Colorado | Biden | 49% | Trump | 43% | +6% | Apr 21 |
Connecticut | Biden | 55% | Trump | 38% | +17% | Apr 21 |
D.C. | Biden | 93% | Trump | 6% | +87% | Jan 01 |
Delaware | Biden | 51% | Trump | 40% | +11% | Apr 21 |
Florida | Biden | 42% | Trump | 51% | +9% | Apr 21 |
Georgia | Biden | 49% | Trump | 51% | +2% | Apr 29 |
Hawaii | Biden | 55% | Trump | 33% | +22% | Apr 21 |
Idaho | Biden | 30% | Trump | 62% | +32% | Apr 21 |
Illinois | Biden | 53% | Trump | 40% | +13% | Apr 21 |
Indiana | Biden | 43% | Trump | 47% | +4% | Apr 21 |
Iowa | Biden | 45% | Trump | 47% | +2% | Apr 21 |
Kansas | Biden | 44% | Trump | 49% | +5% | Apr 21 |
Kentucky | Biden | 35% | Trump | 60% | +25% | Apr 21 |
Louisiana | Biden | 39% | Trump | 54% | +15% | Apr 21 |
Maine | Biden | 45% | Trump | 46% | +1% | Apr 21 |
Maryland | Biden | 58% | Trump | 34% | +24% | Apr 21 |
Massachusetts | Biden | 54% | Trump | 29% | +25% | Apr 20 |
Michigan | Biden | 50% | Trump | 51% | +1% | Apr 29 |
Minnesota | Biden | 46% | Trump | 44% | +2% | Apr 21 |
Mississippi | Biden | 42% | Trump | 51% | +9% | Apr 21 |
Missouri | Biden | 43% | Trump | 49% | +6% | Apr 21 |
Montana | Biden | 34% | Trump | 59% | +25% | Apr 21 |
Nebraska | Biden | 39% | Trump | 50% | +11% | Apr 21 |
Nevada | Biden | 49% | Trump | 51% | +2% | Apr 29 |
New Hampshire | Biden | 48% | Trump | 44% | +4% | Apr 21 |
New Jersey | Biden | 51% | Trump | 42% | +9% | Apr 21 |
New Mexico | Biden | 49% | Trump | 42% | +7% | Apr 21 |
New York | Biden | 48% | Trump | 40% | +8% | Apr 21 |
North Carolina | Biden | 48% | Trump | 52% | +4% | Apr 29 |
North Dakota | Biden | 37% | Trump | 55% | +18% | Apr 21 |
Ohio | Biden | 42% | Trump | 52% | +10% | Apr 21 |
Oklahoma | Biden | 40% | Trump | 53% | +13% | Apr 21 |
Oregon | Biden | 51% | Trump | 39% | +12% | Apr 21 |
Pennsylvania | Biden | 49% | Trump | 51% | +2% | Apr 29 |
Rhode Island | Biden | 48% | Trump | 43% | +5% | Apr 21 |
South Carolina | Biden | 40% | Trump | 52% | +12% | Apr 21 |
South Dakota | Biden | 32% | Trump | 60% | +28% | Apr 21 |
Tennessee | Biden | 35% | Trump | 59% | +24% | Apr 21 |
Texas | Biden | 40% | Trump | 49% | +9% | Apr 21 |
Utah | Biden | 33% | Trump | 47% | +14% | Apr 21 |
Vermont | Biden | 56% | Trump | 35% | +21% | Apr 21 |
Virginia | Biden | 45% | Trump | 45% | +0% | Apr 21 |
Washington | Biden | 53% | Trump | 40% | +13% | Apr 21 |
West Virginia | Biden | 31% | Trump | 63% | +32% | Apr 21 |
Wisconsin | Biden | 49% | Trump | 51% | +2% | Apr 29 |
Wyoming | Biden | 26% | Trump | 67% | +41% | Apr 21 |