State Averages for President

This page contains the current averages for each state for the presidential race calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (e.g., RCP and 538) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Harris 32% Trump 60% Trump +28 Apr 21
Alaska Harris 43% Trump 52% Trump +9 Sep 28
Arizona Harris 49% Trump 50% Trump +1 Sep 28
Arkansas Harris 40% Trump 55% Trump +15 Sep 06
California Harris 58% Trump 36% Harris +22 Sep 25
Colorado Harris 53% Trump 42% Harris +11 Sep 18
Connecticut Harris 53% Trump 37% Harris +16 Sep 18
D.C. Harris 93% Trump 6% Harris +87 Jan 01
Delaware Harris 56% Trump 36% Harris +20 Sep 19
Florida Harris 46% Trump 50% Trump +4 Sep 26
Georgia Harris 48% Trump 50% Trump +2 Sep 29
Hawaii Harris 55% Trump 33% Harris +22 Apr 21
Idaho Harris 30% Trump 62% Trump +32 Apr 21
Illinois Harris 58% Trump 42% Harris +16 Aug 29
Indiana Harris 40% Trump 57% Trump +17 Sep 13
Iowa Harris 43% Trump 47% Trump +4 Sep 11
Kansas Harris 44% Trump 49% Trump +5 Apr 21
Kentucky Harris 35% Trump 60% Trump +25 Apr 21
Louisiana Harris 33% Trump 48% Trump +15 Apr 26
Maine Harris 50% Trump 41% Harris +9 Sep 15
Maryland Harris 64% Trump 32% Harris +32 Sep 23
Massachusetts Harris 63% Trump 33% Harris +30 Sep 18
Michigan Harris 49% Trump 47% Harris +2 Sep 26
Minnesota Harris 49% Trump 43% Harris +6 Sep 18
Mississippi Harris 42% Trump 51% Trump +9 Apr 21
Missouri Harris 43% Trump 53% Trump +10 Sep 13
Montana Harris 41% Trump 56% Trump +15 Aug 29
Nebraska Harris 40% Trump 56% Trump +16 Sep 22
Nevada Harris 50% Trump 47% Harris +3 Sep 25
New Hampshire Harris 53% Trump 43% Harris +10 Sep 16
New Jersey Harris 51% Trump 42% Harris +9 Apr 21
New Mexico Harris 50% Trump 41% Harris +9 Sep 18
New York Harris 54% Trump 40% Harris +14 Sep 25
North Carolina Harris 49% Trump 49% Tied Sep 28
North Dakota Harris 37% Trump 55% Trump +18 Apr 21
Ohio Harris 44% Trump 50% Trump +6 Sep 26
Oklahoma Harris 40% Trump 56% Trump +16 Aug 30
Oregon Harris 51% Trump 39% Harris +12 Apr 21
Pennsylvania Harris 50% Trump 48% Harris +2 Sep 28
Rhode Island Harris 54% Trump 39% Harris +15 Sep 19
South Carolina Harris 42% Trump 52% Trump +10 Sep 29
South Dakota Harris 31% Trump 50% Trump +19 May 13
Tennessee Harris 37% Trump 63% Trump +26 Aug 29
Texas Harris 47% Trump 52% Trump +5 Sep 26
Utah Harris 28% Trump 60% Trump +32 Aug 09
Vermont Harris 70% Trump 29% Harris +41 Aug 19
Virginia Harris 48% Trump 42% Harris +6 Sep 24
Washington Harris 53% Trump 32% Harris +21 Sep 06
West Virginia Harris 34% Trump 61% Trump +27 Aug 27
Wisconsin Harris 50% Trump 48% Harris +2 Sep 26
Wyoming Harris 26% Trump 67% Trump +41 Apr 21