This page contains the current averages for each state for the presidential race calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (e.g., RCP and 538) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.
State | Democrat | Dem % | Republican | GOP % | Lead | End date |
Alabama | Harris | 32% | Trump | 60% | Trump +28 | Apr 21 |
Alaska | Harris | 45% | Trump | 55% | Trump +10 | Oct 22 |
Arizona | Harris | 49% | Trump | 50% | Trump +1 | Oct 22 |
Arkansas | Harris | 40% | Trump | 55% | Trump +15 | Sep 06 |
California | Harris | 60% | Trump | 35% | Harris +25 | Oct 14 |
Colorado | Harris | 53% | Trump | 42% | Harris +11 | Sep 18 |
Connecticut | Harris | 53% | Trump | 37% | Harris +16 | Sep 18 |
D.C. | Harris | 93% | Trump | 6% | Harris +87 | Jan 01 |
Delaware | Harris | 56% | Trump | 36% | Harris +20 | Sep 19 |
Florida | Harris | 45% | Trump | 51% | Trump +6 | Oct 25 |
Georgia | Harris | 49% | Trump | 50% | Trump +1 | Oct 22 |
Hawaii | Harris | 55% | Trump | 33% | Harris +22 | Apr 21 |
Idaho | Harris | 30% | Trump | 62% | Trump +32 | Apr 21 |
Illinois | Harris | 58% | Trump | 42% | Harris +16 | Aug 29 |
Indiana | Harris | 40% | Trump | 57% | Trump +17 | Sep 13 |
Iowa | Harris | 43% | Trump | 47% | Trump +4 | Sep 11 |
Kansas | Harris | 43% | Trump | 48% | Trump +5 | Oct 16 |
Kentucky | Harris | 35% | Trump | 60% | Trump +25 | Apr 21 |
Louisiana | Harris | 33% | Trump | 48% | Trump +15 | Apr 26 |
Maine | Harris | 48% | Trump | 41% | Harris +7 | Oct 07 |
Maryland | Harris | 63% | Trump | 34% | Harris +29 | Oct 21 |
Massachusetts | Harris | 59% | Trump | 31% | Harris +28 | Oct 10 |
Michigan | Harris | 49% | Trump | 45% | Harris +4 | Oct 24 |
Minnesota | Harris | 48% | Trump | 45% | Harris +3 | Oct 22 |
Mississippi | Harris | 42% | Trump | 51% | Trump +9 | Apr 21 |
Missouri | Harris | 43% | Trump | 53% | Trump +10 | Sep 13 |
Montana | Harris | 40% | Trump | 59% | Trump +19 | Oct 25 |
Nebraska | Harris | 40% | Trump | 55% | Trump +15 | Oct 26 |
Nevada | Harris | 48% | Trump | 49% | Trump +1 | Oct 20 |
New Hampshire | Harris | 51% | Trump | 49% | Harris +2 | Oct 26 |
New Jersey | Harris | 51% | Trump | 42% | Harris +9 | Apr 21 |
New Mexico | Harris | 50% | Trump | 41% | Harris +9 | Oct 18 |
New York | Harris | 58% | Trump | 39% | Harris +19 | Oct 17 |
North Carolina | Harris | 48% | Trump | 49% | Trump +1 | Oct 22 |
North Dakota | Harris | 37% | Trump | 55% | Trump +18 | Apr 21 |
Ohio | Harris | 44% | Trump | 51% | Trump +7 | Oct 21 |
Oklahoma | Harris | 40% | Trump | 56% | Trump +16 | Aug 30 |
Oregon | Harris | 53% | Trump | 41% | Harris +12 | Oct 17 |
Pennsylvania | Harris | 50% | Trump | 50% | Tied | Oct 22 |
Rhode Island | Harris | 54% | Trump | 39% | Harris +15 | Sep 19 |
South Carolina | Harris | 42% | Trump | 55% | Trump +13 | Oct 22 |
South Dakota | Harris | 35% | Trump | 61% | Trump +26 | Oct 22 |
Tennessee | Harris | 37% | Trump | 63% | Trump +26 | Aug 29 |
Texas | Harris | 44% | Trump | 53% | Trump +9 | Oct 21 |
Utah | Harris | 31% | Trump | 63% | Trump +32 | Oct 19 |
Vermont | Harris | 70% | Trump | 29% | Harris +41 | Aug 19 |
Virginia | Harris | 49% | Trump | 43% | Harris +6 | Oct 23 |
Washington | Harris | 56% | Trump | 36% | Harris +20 | Oct 17 |
West Virginia | Harris | 34% | Trump | 61% | Trump +27 | Aug 27 |
Wisconsin | Harris | 48% | Trump | 49% | Trump +1 | Oct 22 |
Wyoming | Harris | 26% | Trump | 67% | Trump +41 | Apr 21 |