State Averages for President

This page contains the current averages for each state for the presidential race calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (e.g., RCP and 538) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Harris 34% Trump 65% Trump +31 Nov 15
Alaska Harris 41% Trump 55% Trump +14 Nov 15
Arizona Harris 47% Trump 52% Trump +5 Nov 15
Arkansas Harris 34% Trump 64% Trump +30 Nov 15
California Harris 59% Trump 38% Harris +21 Nov 15
Colorado Harris 54% Trump 43% Harris +11 Nov 15
Connecticut Harris 56% Trump 42% Harris +14 Nov 15
D.C. Harris 92% Trump 7% Harris +85 Nov 15
Delaware Harris 57% Trump 42% Harris +15 Nov 15
Florida Harris 43% Trump 56% Trump +13 Nov 15
Georgia Harris 49% Trump 51% Trump +2 Nov 15
Hawaii Harris 61% Trump 38% Harris +23 Nov 15
Idaho Harris 30% Trump 67% Trump +37 Nov 15
Illinois Harris 54% Trump 44% Harris +10 Nov 15
Indiana Harris 40% Trump 59% Trump +19 Nov 15
Iowa Harris 43% Trump 56% Trump +13 Nov 15
Kansas Harris 41% Trump 57% Trump +16 Nov 15
Kentucky Harris 34% Trump 65% Trump +31 Nov 15
Louisiana Harris 38% Trump 60% Trump +22 Nov 15
Maine Harris 52% Trump 45% Harris +7 Nov 15
Maryland Harris 62% Trump 35% Harris +27 Nov 15
Massachusetts Harris 61% Trump 36% Harris +25 Nov 15
Michigan Harris 48% Trump 50% Trump +2 Nov 15
Minnesota Harris 51% Trump 47% Harris +4 Nov 15
Mississippi Harris 37% Trump 61% Trump +24 Nov 15
Missouri Harris 40% Trump 59% Trump +19 Nov 15
Montana Harris 38% Trump 58% Trump +20 Nov 15
Nebraska Harris 40% Trump 60% Trump +20 Nov 15
Nevada Harris 48% Trump 51% Trump +3 Nov 15
New Hampshire Harris 51% Trump 48% Harris +3 Nov 15
New Jersey Harris 52% Trump 46% Harris +6 Nov 15
New Mexico Harris 52% Trump 46% Harris +6 Nov 15
New York Harris 56% Trump 44% Harris +12 Nov 15
North Carolina Harris 48% Trump 51% Trump +3 Nov 15
North Dakota Harris 31% Trump 67% Trump +36 Nov 15
Ohio Harris 44% Trump 55% Trump +11 Nov 15
Oklahoma Harris 32% Trump 66% Trump +34 Nov 15
Oregon Harris 55% Trump 42% Harris +13 Nov 15
Pennsylvania Harris 49% Trump 50% Trump +1 Nov 15
Rhode Island Harris 55% Trump 42% Harris +13 Nov 15
South Carolina Harris 40% Trump 58% Trump +18 Nov 15
South Dakota Harris 34% Trump 63% Trump +29 Nov 15
Tennessee Harris 34% Trump 64% Trump +30 Nov 15
Texas Harris 42% Trump 56% Trump +14 Nov 15
Utah Harris 38% Trump 60% Trump +22 Nov 15
Vermont Harris 64% Trump 32% Harris +32 Nov 15
Virginia Harris 52% Trump 46% Harris +6 Nov 15
Washington Harris 58% Trump 39% Harris +19 Nov 15
West Virginia Harris 28% Trump 70% Trump +42 Nov 15
Wisconsin Harris 49% Trump 50% Trump +1 Nov 15
Wyoming Harris 26% Trump 72% Trump +46 Nov 15