Trump's Taxes Are Finally Public

For decades, presidential candidates voluntarily released multiple years' worth of their tax returns. Donald Trump broke the string and it took the courts to pry them away from his stubby little hands. But they are out now and the analyses are starting to roll in. The returns are extremely complex, so new aspects may come to light over the course of the next few days and even weeks, as forensic accountants put on their green eyeshades and start studying them. If you are a forensic accountant, here are the raw returns for 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020.

Here the amounts of adjusted gross income and the net tax for each of the 6 years for which returns were released.

Year	Adjusted gross income	Net tax
2015	-$31,756,435	$641,931
2016	-$32,409,674	$750
2017	-$12,916,948	$750
2018	$24,339,696	$999,466
2019	$4,380,714	$133,445
2020	-$4,795,757	$0

As you can imagine, preparing tax returns that include over 400 entities that Trump owns was not easy. In 2015, Trump paid Mazars LLP $573,581 for tax prep. In 2016, he paid $1,295,385. The 2017 tax law eliminated the deduction for tax preparation, so Trump didn't list it as a deduction in subsequent years.

Here are some of the more noteworthy items on the tax returns that have come out so far:

• Loans: Trump received interest payments from three of his adult children on loans he made to them. They raise all manner of questions. First of all, were they really gifts in disguise? If so, then Trump may be guilty of evading the gift tax. We don't know if the children claimed deductions on the interest they paid, but if the loans were really gifts and the children deducted the interest anyway, that would be illegal. Also, if they are truly loans (meaning there is an agreement about when the loans are to be repaid), and the interest rate charged is below the market interest rate, the difference could be a (taxable) gift. Some of the interest payments are round numbers—for example, $24,000.00 from Eric Trump. That is odd, but not impossible. If Trump loaned Eric $600,000 at 4%, the annual interest would be exactly $24,000.00. But auditors would want to see proof.
  
  
• Matching amounts: For several of Trump's businesses, the expenses matched the income to the dollar. For example, DJT Aerospace LLC, which operates Trump's personal helicopter, had income of $42,965 and expenses of $42,965. Seems very, very unlikely. An auditor would surely want to see the details of both the income and expenses. This magical matching also happened with a number of Trump's other businesses. The possibility of this happening by chance over and over with different companies is indistinguishable from zero.
  
  
• Foreign income and bank accounts: Trump had business income, expenses, or paid foreign taxes in these countries: Azerbaijan, Brazil, Canada, China, Georgia, Grenada, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Mexico, Panama, Qatar, South Korea, St. Maarten, St. Vincent, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, the Dominican Republic, the Philippines and the United Kingdom. He had bank accounts in multiple foreign countries. That is legal, provided he filed the FBAR form each year reporting each account and the maximum in it at any time during the year. It is not possible to see from the tax returns whether Trump indeed also filed the required FBARs. He did pay foreign taxes. In fact, in 2017, he paid more in foreign taxes than in U.S. taxes. He may have maintained the foreign bank accounts in order to pay the foreign taxes.
  
  
• The pandemic hit Trump hard: Much of Trump's income is from hotels and golf courses and these sectors were hard hit during the pandemic. In 2020, his businesses lost $4.8 million. That was enough to wipe out his tax bill for 2020. Trump listed no charitable contributions for 2020. That is a bit odd because he pledged to donate his entire salary of $400,000 to charity. That would have given him a $400,000 tax deduction. While it is not required to take the deduction, Trump is such a pennypincher that passing up such a large deduction would be unusual.
  
  
• The 2017 tax law: The 2017 tax law Trump signed limited the total amount of state and local tax deductions to $10,000, in order to stick it to the high-tax blue states. In 2018, Trump listed $10.5 million in state and local taxes, but he was allowed to deduct only $10,000. In 2019, he paid $8.4 million in state and local taxes, but could deduct only $10,000. By way of comparison, in 2016 and 2017, he deducted $5.2 million each year for state and local taxes. It is not clear yet if he benefited due to other provisions in the tax law he signed.
  
  
• New accountant: In 2020, Trump was dropped by his long-standing accountant Mazars because they didn't believe the numbers he was feeding them. He switched to Timothy Horan of BKM Sowan Horan, a Texas firm. Maybe Horan doesn't care if the numbers are accurate. He just adds them up.
  

No doubt more revelations will be unveiled later this week. (V)

McCarthy Is Still Struggling

The election for speaker of the House of Representatives is tomorrow and Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), who has dreamed of the job his whole life, still does not have it locked down. It's that pesky Freedom Caucus that is giving him nightmares. If the FC wanted movement on some straightforward policy issue, say, on taxes or on impeaching DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, McCarthy would just cave and give the members whatever they want. His problem is that what they want is to permanently install the sword of Damocles over his head, held by a single horse hair, and with FC Chairman Andy Biggs (R-AZ) standing next to it holding a pair of scissors. In House-speak, what they want is to allow any member of the House to be able to make a motion to vacate the chair (i.e., fire McCarthy) at any time and force a vote on it. That would keep McCarthy under pressure his entire term and force him to give in to the FC again and again. Not surprisingly, he is not keen on this. Members of the Republican caucus who are not in the FC see this as creating a hostage situation and are also strongly against it. But if even five members of the FC vote for Biggs or someone other than McCarthy and keep doing that, he won't become speaker.

Currently somewhere between five and fourteen members of the FC are on record as "Never Kevin," to varying degrees of seriousness, and there is not a lot of time left for making a deal. To be specific, nine far-right members of the Republican conference released a letter yesterday that describes McCarthy's concessions as "insufficient," and decrees:

The times call for radical departure from the status quo—not a continuation of past and ongoing Republican failures. For someone with a 14-year presence in senior House Republican leadership, Mr. McCarthy bears squarely the burden to correct the dysfunction he now explicitly admits across that long tenure.

The letter is signed by Scott Perry (PA) and Chip Roy (TX), who apparently took the lead, along with Dan Bishop (NC), Andrew Clyde (GA), Paul Gosar (AZ) and Andy Harris (MD), and Reps.-elect Anna Paulina Luna (FL), Eli Crane (AZ) and Andy Ogles (TN). None of those nine are in the group of five led by Matt Gaetz (FL), who have all vowed that they will not vote for McCarthy. That's how we get "between five and fourteen members."

Some members (not the right-wingers) are proposing a compromise in which it would take five members to force a vote on vacating the chair, but that would just mean the hair from which Damocles' sword would hang would just be a little thicker. Many members want it to be as thin as Donald Trump's skin, while most don't want there to be a sword at all. So, the compromise doesn't have many takers.

One development that occurred late last week is that the 70-member Main Street Caucus voted to keep supporting McCarthy until the cows come home. A group of more than a dozen representatives from crossover districts that Joe Biden won also voted for "only Kevin, and said it would not support a compromise candidate." If the five to fourteen FC-ers also refuse to budge, electing a speaker could take a while.

If McCarthy does not make it on the first ballot, it will be the first time since 1923 when the election has gone to a second ballot. Nobody really has an official Plan B, but there is talk that if McCarthy simply doesn't have the votes after multiple ballots, one way out might be for most of the Democrats and some of the moderate Republicans to vote for retiring representative Fred Upon of Michigan. The Constitution does not require the speaker to be a sitting member of the House, so Upton's election would be a first. At this point this seems unlikely, but if McCarthy doesn't have the votes and can't get them, the unlikely may become likely. (V)

Many of the Dealmakers Are Leaving the Senate

Five Republicans are leaving the Senate: Roy Blunt (MO), Richard Burr (NC), Rob Portman (OH), Richard Shelby (AL), and Pat Toomey (PA). None of them are firebrands. In fact, all of them are low-key dealmakers. There are still a few Republican senators willing to make deals with the Democrats, including Sens. Susan Collins (ME) and Lisa Murkowski (AK). But it will take nine Republican votes to invoke cloture on most bills, so these five votes will be sorely missed.

Burr and Blunt backed several bipartisan bills last year. Portman was the lead Republican on the infrastructure bill that passed. Shelby shepherded the bill to fund the government across the finish line. Toomey has long-supported background checks for gun purchases. They believed that their job was to pass laws, not enrage their constituents.

Blunt will be replaced by Sen.-elect Eric Schmitt (R-MO), who is trumpier than Donald Trump and is unlikely to make any deals with anyone. Burr will be replaced by Trump's handpicked candidate, Sen.-elect Ted Budd (R-NC), one of the few of Trump's choices who won. Portman will be replaced by the fire-breathing Sen.-elect J.D. Vance (R-OH), who is certainly not going to be a dealmaker. Shelby will be replaced by his chief of staff, Sen.-elect Katie Britt (R-AL). She will follow in his footsteps and try to work with the Democrats where possible. As a junior senator she won't be a leader, but she will probably vote for bipartisan bills if Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) asks her to. Toomey will be replaced by a Democrat, John Fetterman (PA), who will do whatever Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) wants him to do.

With the inmates running the asylum at the other end of the Capitol, few laws are likely to be passed, but once in a while there will be a required vote to keep the government's lights on. That will be harder now than it was. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) will miss his former Republican colleagues and said: "I worry about it. When you have a history of working across the aisle, when you lose them it's tough." Blunt said: "The members who are leaving are among the least angry. And many, in many cases, may be the most likely to reach out and figure out how to get something done."

Still, the situation in the Senate is not hopeless. The only member of the Republican leadership who is gone is Blunt. The rest of it remains intact. One new senator who is a blank slate is whoever replaces the retiring Ben Sasse. When Gov.-elect Jim Pillen (R-NE) is sworn in, one of his first acts is expected to be the appointment of the departing Gov. Pete Ricketts (R-NE) to fill Sasse's seat. He's never been in national politics and didn't campaign for the seat so no one really knows how he will behave. (V)

Who's Running? (Republican Edition)

In the new year, most of the political attention will be focused on the 2024 presidential race, which is well underway already. A year from now we may look back and say: "How did anyone think X was viable and completely missed Y?" But this is now and not then. We'll do the Republican field today and the potential Democratic field tomorrow.

Our first thought about the Republican field was: "It's Donald Trump's to lose and if he loses it, then Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) will be the nominee. Will everyone else kindly go home and shut up?" But maybe not so fast. In baseball, it is three strikes and you're out. In politics, sometimes it is one strike and you're out. Remember "macaca"? Or Hillary's e-mail server? Is an e-mail server really that important? Well, if one party makes the whole campaign about it, maybe yes.

DeSantis looks strong now, but what if Migrantgate (Texasgate? Immigrant Mobilier?) takes off? We can easily imagine Trump or Pence or other Republicans repeating over and over: "Please explain why you gave a million dollars of the taxpayers' money to one of your friends to ship migrants from Texas to Massachusetts. What did the Florida taxpayers get for their money? Heaven knows how much of the taxpayers' money you'll waste on PR stunts if you get to the White House. We better not risk it." DeSantis could say: "Well, I owned the libs," but first, that is not cool to say out loud and second, the migrants were welcomed and treated well in Massachusetts. The libs acted like adults and made DeSantis look like an angry toddler. Repeated often enough, that could end up hurting DeSantis. He has an extremely thin skin. He is great at dishing it out but no good at all handling incoming fire. And this is only the first potential problem he may have to deal with.

Taking away the Walt Disney Corporation's special tax status, which resulted in transferring a billion dollars in debt from Disney to the state of Florida could also come back to haunt DeSantis—even if the situation is returned to the status quo ante tantrum, which seems likely. Opponents will ask: "If it was a good idea, why did you reverse it and if it was a bad idea, why did you do it in the first place?" An answer of "I tricked the voters and got reelected" may not cut it.

So it is entirely possible that Trump will soon be in big trouble due to legal issues and DeSantis will be in trouble politically due to Migrantgate, Disneygate, or some other gate not yet opened. Hence it is worth looking at who else is out there. Here's the field is roughly descending order of the likihood of getting the nomination:

• Donald Trump: About 70% of Republican voters want Trump as their nominee. If he can maintain that following, he's got it. However, he has two big problems. First, he is almost sure to be indicted in Georgia and there is a good chance he will be convicted. The trial will be the #1 news story in the country for as long as it takes. There is also a decent chance that special counsel Jack Smith recommends indicting Trump on federal charges as well, either for unauthorized possession of national security documents or something related to the coup attempt or both. Again, Some of the 74 million people who voted for Trump in 2020 did so because they don't like Joe Biden, but not liking Joe Biden is not an automatic vote for Trump in a Republican primary. None of the Republican candidates like Joe Biden.
  
  Second, Trump is almost certain to have serious competition in the primary. DeSantis is probably going to jump in and if does, so will others. Trump will come under attack from Republicans like never before. In 2016, Jeb! and the others didn't take him seriously and didn't hit him hard. This time the mud will fly. Where's that wall? Where is the emptied swamp? Why did you make a terrible deal with the Taliban that forced Biden to withdraw from Afghanistan helter skelter? Why did you appoint so many corrupt people to your administration? There's plenty of material on both policy and personality.
  
  One of Trump's strongest rejoinders can be summarized in three words: Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett. For a many conservatives, those three words make up for a lot of other failings.
  
  
• Ron DeSantis: He is a young, fresh face who looks great on television—provided you turn the sound off. His pitch is "Ultra-Trumpism, but without the baggage." He is also just off a landslide reelection that he can boast about. He also banned abortion after 15 weeks and has some good one-liners that the base loves, like "Florida is where woke goes to die!" He also has $70 million left over in his campaign account. He can't use all of that for a federal election, because of contribution limits, but he can use some, and then give the rest to an affiliated PAC. There are multiple billionaires, including Ken Griffin, Ronald Lauder, and Robert Mercer, who will pony up and keep that PAC fully funded, no matter how much DeSantis spends. It will be like the bottomless coffee cup.
  
  However, DeSantis hasn't been tested at all outside Florida and all he has going for him is his attempts at owning the libs. That might not be enough. Even Trump had an actual platform in 2016. It is hard to see what might be on DeSantis platform except culture-wars stuff. Maybe education, except the federal government doesn't play much of a role in education. The states and local school boards do that.
  
  As mentioned above, he has several areas where he can be attacked, such as Migrantgate and Disneygate, and oppo researchers are at this very moment scouring his past, looking for more. Did he write a racist poem in middle school? Are there any photos in his high school yearbook that document... unfortunate Halloween costume choices? Did he take a vote as a young congressman that can now be held against him? There could be all manner of dirt somewhere.
  
  One thing that is sure to work against him is that DeSantis is a venal, angry person. Trump, for his many faults, charmed the base in 2016. Charm is not on the menu with DeSantis, only anger, and you usually don't win elections when you are the angriest guy on the stage. He fails the beer test horribly. Also, DeSantis is a Catholic and may not be a hit with evangelical Protestants, who form a disproportionate fraction of the Republican primary electorate.
  
  
• Mike Pence: One candidate who could pick up the bulk of the evangelical vote if Trump and DeSantis obliterate each other is Mike Pence. He doesn't have to advertise his religion; he wears it on his sleeve and everyone can see it. Also, unlike Trump and DeSantis, he really believes it and everyone knows that, too. In the general election, that will be a minus, but in the Republican primary it is a plus. On the culture-wars agenda, he is as far right as DeSantis, just more polite about it. His stint as vice president means that every Republican voter already knows who he is, whereas DeSantis will first have to introduce himself.
  
  Pence also has some minuses. He is a boring speaker and not someone you would want to have a beer with. In fact, if you are a woman, he will refuse to have that beer with you unless his wife is present to watch his every move. In general, he makes Al Gore look like Mr. Charisma. But if the Republican voters get tired of Trump and DeSantis mud wrestling, maybe a boring, sober, true conservative will start looking very good. Though we very seriously doubt it, especially since the Trumpers hate, hate, hate Pence.
  
  
• Mike Pompeo: The Politico article lumps John Bolton, Liz Cheney, Chris Christie, Chris Sununu, Nikki Haley, Larry Hogan, Asa Hutchinson, Kristi Noem, and Pompeo together in the basket of "people who broke with Trump." We think that is too coarse a sifting. Bolton and Cheney are not going to enter the Republican primary. Christie would be a fool if he did. Noem and Haley are eyeing the #2 slot, not the top slot. That leaves Sununu, Hutchinson, Hogan, and Pompeo.
  
  Of these, Pompeo is the best positioned. He served as secretary of state but didn't get into any fights with Trump, so Trump supporters have nothing against him. He can make a case that he is sane, conservative, and qualified. He is also less boring than Pence and doesn't shove his religion in everyone's face, but could make the evangelicals happy if the top three on this list flame out.
  
  
• Larry Hogan, Asa Hutchinson, and Chris Sununu: All three are really longshots. Hogan is too liberal for the Republican base. In April, Sununu called Trump "f**king crazy" and said: "I don't think he's so crazy that you could put him in a mental institution. But I think if he were in one, he ain't getting out!" That's not language that will endear Sununu to Trump's supporters. Hutchinson is completely unknown at this point, but we are smart enough not to say that an unknown governor from Arkansas could never be elected president. He could win the nomination if he is the last man standing.
  
  
• The Senators: Republican senators Tom Cotton (AR), Josh Hawley (MO), and Rick Scott (FL) have already dropped out. Gee, that was fast. That leaves three other potential senators: Tim Scott (SC), Marco Rubio (FL), and Ted Cruz (TX). Scott is Black. The Democrats will nominate a toaster before the Republicans will nominate a Black person. Remember, Scott was appointed to the Senate in 2012 by then-governor Nikki Haley. Then when he ran in the 2014 special election, he was already an incumbent.
  
  Rubio ran for president in 2016 and got only 27% of the vote in his home state. He got 11% of the popular vote and 7% of the delegates nationwide. He is widely regarded as lazy and a poor campaigner and fundraiser. The Republicans would have to be fairly desperate to nominate him.
  
  Next up is Ted Cruz. All of the other 99 senators despise him, but he did come in second in 2016 with 25% of the popular vote and 553 delegates (22%). One thing that has happened since then is his ill-advised vacation in Cancun when Texas was freezing in a freak storm that took out power for thousands of Texans. It's true that as a senator, it wasn't his fault that a massive storm hit Texas and there wasn't much he could do about it, but the optics were just horrendous. He would have been much better off in his office in D.C. photographed on the phone yelling at FEMA to get aid to Texas—and fast, or else. At least people would have thought that he cared about his constituents and was trying to help them. "Cancun" could be as potent as "e-mail server"
  
  
• Brian Kemp: Above are the national figures. Now on to state figures. Donald Trump strongly opposed Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) in his primary this year—and he nevertheless won by 50 points against a candidate Trump handpicked. He also knocked off Stacey Abrams in a key swing state with ease. He is much more friendly than most of the above candidates and comes from a critical state with 16 electoral votes. As a governor, Kemp has run a large state and has remained scandal free. The biggest problem for the Republicans is that he might not run. He has apparently set his sights on the seat of Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA), which comes up in 2026, just when his last term as governor runs out. That's much more realistic for him. He could run for president in 2024 and then, if he loses, try for the Senate in 2026, but then he would have the image of a loser rather than skipping 2024 and having the image of a winner. A better strategy might be to run for the Senate in 2026, win, and then use that as a springboard for a 2028 presidential run, assuming that Biden gets another term.
  
  
• Glenn Youngkin: Youngkin won election in a blue state, which is impressive. However, he beat a fairly sleazy retread. He might not have done so well if the Democrats had sent the A-team. His main campaign issue was education. That works fine at the state level, but a campaign about who uses which locker room and requiring parental consent concerning a student's pronouns is not a national platform. Also, by next summer, he will have been in the governor's mansion for a year and a half and will be judged by his accomplishments, if any. Whining that it's not his fault that he can't do anything because the Democrats control the state Senate is probably not a winning play. And the Virginia Democrats are aware that he is a potential presidential candidate and are not about to give him any easy victories.
  

That's the field now as Politico sees it, but remember, sometimes candidates pop up out of the blue. Certainly, few people in early 2015 saw Trump as the Republican nominee. Someone from business, entertainment, sports, or something else could jump in and surprise people. President Musk, anyone?

For an alternative viewpoint, The Hill also has a list. From most likely to least likely, the top ten are: DeSantis, Trump, Cruz, Haley, Pompeo, Youngkin, Pence, Scott, Noem, and Sununu. It is noteworthy that DeSantis is #1. We expect more lists in the weeks ahead with DeSantis as #1. In our view, the chances of the nominee being a straight, white conservative Christian male are roughly 99.99%. So scratch Haley, Scott, and Noem, although all three are conceivable as veep. We also think Sununu, who otherwise qualifies, is not nearly conservative enough. Other than that, the list is plausible. The order of Pompeo, Youngkin, and Pence is kind of arbitrary. Each one has different strengths and weaknesses. Notably absent from the list is Brian Kemp. We think that is correct, If he runs for the Senate in 2026 against Jon Ossoff, he probably has a 90% chance of getting the GOP nomination vs. maybe 2% for president in 2024. (V)

Republicans Finalize Their 2024 Convention Plans

Republicans are rarin' to go. Now they have a place and date for their 2024 nominating convention. All that is left is the candidate (see above). The convention will be held Monday July 15, 2024, through Thursday July 18, 2024, at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, WI. This information is needed for the expected 45,000 folks, including delegates, alternate delegates, Republican politicians, donors, reporters from all over the world, media crews, TV anchors, spinmasters, photographers, bloggers, technical personnel, public safety teams, medical personnel, prostitutes, alternate prostitutes, and more. Protesters are probably not included in the count, but you betcha that more than a couple will show up. They all need to block off these days on their calendars now. Local hotels and restaurants will also be noting that starting July 1, 2024, or thereabouts, it will be time to triple their prices or more.

There isn't a lot of evidence that having a convention in some state wins a lot of votes in that state. Nevertheless, the received wisdom is that it does, and few states swing more than Wisconsin. If Wisconsin voters think that the Republicans love them, it can't hurt. The runner-up was Nashville, in deep red Tennessee. From a political standpoint, that makes little sense. However, the final decision is not entirely based on politics. Logistics are also key, including the number, quality, and location of hotel rooms. Not every city has 45,000 hotel rooms within an hour of the convention venue, for example. Also, the chosen city needs an airport with many scheduled flights from all regions of the country to get those 45,000 people to the venue. And of course, the chosen city has to want (and bid for) the convention. Early on, some possible (even desirable) cities refused to bid because they didn't want the convention.

Milwaukee does have a couple of downsides, though. Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson is Black and a Democrat. Gov. Tony Evers (D-WI) is white and also a Democrat. Nevertheless, neither one is going to try to sabotage the convention. If the logistics come off smoothly, other organizations are going to see that Milwaukee can pull off big events and that will increase Milwaukee's future convention business, which the mayor, the governor, and the local business community would very much like.

A side issue here is that the Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature. Both Johnson and Evers know that a smoothly run convention that showcases the Republican ticket well will generate some good will among the legislators. That good will could come in handy after the convention. (V)

Biden Outpaced Trump on Judges

The Democrats had hoped to confirm 100 new federal judges in the 117th Congress, but the clock won. They did get 97 judges seated though, more than the 85 Trump got through in his first 2 years. The kind of judges Biden nominated and got confirmed is wildly different from the type Trump nominated, so Biden's impact on the federal judiciary will be greater and longer lasting than Trump's numbers aside. Of the 126 nominees for whom a vote was taken in the Senate Judiciary Committee, 92 were women and 60 were women of color. In total, 85 were people of color. There were also 8 LGBTQ nominees. This is a huge change from Trump's choices, most of whom were white men.

Another form of diversity is what the judges previously did. Many of Biden's nominees were public defenders, immigration lawyers, or consumer advocates. Trump's were largely prosecutors and corporate lawyers.

What is also amazing is that the Democrats did this with the Judiciary Committee split 11-11 and most Republicans voting against every nominee. For example, Josh Hawley voted for only one of Biden's nominees and Ted Cruz voted for only two. Tom Cotton and Ben Sasse voted for five each. One surprise was Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who supported 107 of them. He said that as long as a president picks qualified nominees, he is entitled to pick people he prefers. The Republican who approved the second largest number of nominees is Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), who voted for 50.

Democrats tried to make a deal with the Republicans to get three more of the least contentious nominees through in order to hit the 100 mark, but the Republicans refused. There are almost 30 in the pipeline for the next Senate to consider. However, since the Democrats will have a majority on the Committee starting Jan. 3, they will be able to get judges confirmed much faster than has been he case so far. However, one thing that could slow them down is the contentious "blue slip rule." The Senate has an informal tradition that when a judge is nominated, the senators from the state where the judge will serve get "blue slips" to approve or veto the candidate. The Democrats want to continue this tradition, but if they want to match Trump's 4-year total, that might not be possible.

One metric where Trump scored better than Biden during his first 2 years is that he got 30 appellate judges confirmed. Biden has gotten only 28 so far. On the other hand, Biden got 68 district judges confirmed to Trump's 53. (V)

Meadows Won't Face Fraud Charges for Illegally Registering to Vote

Mark Meadows was at one time registered to vote in three states (Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina) at the same time. That is not illegal as long as he didn't vote in more than one of them. However, he didn't live at the address he registered in North Carolina, and had apparently never lived there, and that is illegal. Nevertheless, on Friday, North Carolina AG Josh Stein (D) announced his decision not to prosecute Meadows.

Stein decided that there was not enough evidence to go after either Meadows or his wife, who was also registered at an address where she didn't live. Stein was concerned that he couldn't prove his case to a jury beyond a reasonable doubt and so decided not to chance it.

The address where Meadows and his wife registered was a mobile home in Scaly Mountain, NC. At the time he registered, he was White House chief of staff and living in D.C. However, North Carolina state law says that people who are working for the government in D.C. don't actually have to sleep in their North Carolina house all the time, or even 183 days a year to qualify for North Carolina residency. The key legal question is what Meadows' "permanent place of abode" was. That could have been in Scaly Mountain, even if Meadows was never there, because state law recognizes that working for the government is always a temporary gig. So, in the end, Meadows got away with claiming that other people voted fraudulently when he himself never lived at the address he was registered at. (V)

The Best and Worst Things Biden Did in 2022

The Washington Post did something that is a little bit interesting. They have two token arch-conservative fire-breathers on their op-ed staff, namely Hugh Hewitt and Marc Thiessen. And the paper assigned the latter to do was write two lists, one of the 10 best things Joe Biden did in 2022 and another of the 10 worst.

Let's start with the worst. Thiessen begins that piece by describing the Biden presidency as "the worst presidency in my lifetime." Thiessen is 55, which means he's rating Biden as worse than, among others, Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, George W. Bush and Donald Trump. In other words, if we may be so bold, one cannot take Thiessen all that seriously. Still, the "worst" list does give insight into the top right-wing talking points of 2022 (and, very likely, going forward):

BIDEN'S LOW POINTS

10. He presided over a plethora of disasters.
11. He called Georgia's election law "Jim Crow 2.0".
12. He urged Republicans to reject extremists while promoting them in GOP primaries.
13. His administration discharged thousands of troops for refusing coronavirus vaccination.
14. He begged foreign despots to produce more oil while weakening domestic production.
15. In an unconstitutional power grab, he canceled up to $1 trillion in student loans.
16. He has failed to avenge the Kabul airport bombing that killed 183 people, including 13 Americans.
17. He signed into law an Inflation Reduction Act that will not reduce inflation or climate change.
18. He made the worst border crisis in U.S. history even worse.
19. He slow-rolled military aid to Ukraine out of fear of provoking Vladimir Putin.

Some of these are particularly laughable. For example, number 8. While the various Democratic campaign apparatuses may well have promoted extremists (a.k.a. rat**cking), Biden had nothing to do with that. Or how about number 5? We do not seem to recall any footage of Biden begging any foreign despot to produce more oil. Shaking the hand of MbS is not begging. And, at the same time, how does releasing tens of millions of barrels of oil from the strategic reserve constitute "weakening domestic production"? Still, the point here is not to discover any sort of objective truths, but to understand the right-wing mindset when it comes to Biden and to the 2024 elections.

And now the "best" list. It must have turned Thiessen's stomach to have to write this one. Still, it gives some insight into the things that Biden and Democrats can highlight if they want to try to connect with independents and crossover Republicans:

BIDEN'S HIGH POINTS

10. He acted to prevent a crippling national rail strike.
11. He is sending B-52s to Australia to counter China.
12. He launched a "full-court press" against China's domestic semiconductor industry.
13. He signed the first bipartisan gun legislation in decades.
14. He secured extradition of the terrorist who bombed Pan Am Flight 103, killing 190 Americans.
15. He kept Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on the U.S. list of foreign terrorist organizations.
16. He won support for Finland and Sweden to join NATO.
17. He killed al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri.
18. He declared the United States will defend Taiwan.
19. He saved Ukraine.

So, Biden's worst thing was his handling of Ukraine. And his best thing was... his handling of Ukraine. Thiessen is not known for his consistency, so it's not surprising that the two lists look a little odd when placed next to each other. In any event, the lists give some insight into the thought processes of Trumpy Republicans. (V & Z)

The Top Political Stories of 2022

The year 2022 was full of political news. According to NPR, these were the top political stories of the year (not ranked):

• Democrats do better than expected in the midterms
• The Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade
• Inflation and gas prices hit new highs
• A record number of migrants showed up the southern border
• Congress was actually productive
• Russia invaded Ukraine
• Trump announced for president again
• Congress held hearings about the Jan. 6 coup attempt
• Hurricane Ian and other weather-related events
• The mass shootings in Uvalde and Buffalo led to gun legislation

Honorable mentions went to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) stepping down and her husband being attacked. Also, Justice Brett Kavanaugh was targeted, which led to increased security for justices. (V)

A December to Rhymember, Part XVIII: Fin

We were asked, over the weekend, to make available the complete versions of the "I Am the Very Model of a Modern Major-General" parodies. So, we have gone back to that posting and restored the verses we edited out.

Today, to wrap up this year's incarnation of "December to Rhymember," a couple of year-in-review entries. This one is from M.P. in Leasburg, MO, and is inspired, as the author explains, "by both the New Year and Bob Dylan's 'Tangled up in Blue' (Electoral Vote blue, that is!):

Early one morning as the year began anew
I was laying in bed
Wondering if they'd changed at all
If his hair was still orange
The pundits they said our lives together
Sure was gonna be rough
They never did like the red's best guess
Turtle's bankbook wasn't big enough
And we're standing on the side of the road
Stupidity falling round us like a ruse
Feels like we've all seen a ghost
Lord knows we've all paid some dues
Getting through, (if we can just get)
Tangled up in blue.

MTG was married when we all first met
Soon to be divorced
McCarthy helpin' her out of a jam I guess
Our friends need to set a new course
We all voted as hard as we could
The far-right felt they were blessed
Split up on a November night
Independents knew it was for the best
They know that it has to be
Voting that way
We heard then say over our shoulder
"We'll all meet again someday
based on popularity," (if we can just get)
Tangled up in blue

Santos has a job in the great north woods
Working as a politician for a spell
But honest folk didn't like it all that much
And one day the ax just fell
He drifted down to Brazil
So lucky he knows how to kite
Working for a while on a street corner
Right outside of a bank
But all the while he was alone
The past was close behind
He's all about a fraudulent scheme
But he never escaped our mind
And as new voters grew, (if we can just get)
Tangled up in blue

She was working in a lawless place
We just stopped by for a beer
A gun just might get stuck upside our face
Although it could be your atmosphere
And later on when the crowd thinned out
We were just about to do the same
She was standing there in back of my friend's chair
And said, "What do you think about my sidearm?"
Not really here to pursue our death
She had employees packin' throughout the place
We must admit we felt a little uneasy
When she bent down to reload
We just wanted a burger and a brew (Geez, we really have to get)
Tangled up in blue

He appeared from nowhere and offered us a pillow
"I thought you'd never buy it," he said,
"You all see through my tripe."
Then they tried to get us on a bus to Amarillo
And handed us some tickets
Purchased by some aide to DeSatan
Really come on, it's the 21st century
And for everyone, the words rang true
And what was grim is now so clear
Pouring off of every voter registration
Like it was a whole new year
Shake the voodoo and deja-vu (Let's do it and get)
Tangled up in blue

So now we're going back again
We've got to get there somehow
All the people we used to know
They're getting replaced with nut jobs now
Some are drunken mathematicians
Some are other dude's wives
Don't know how it all got started
I don't know what they do with their lives
But we are still on the road
In search of that legal joint
We always did feel the same
It's a new year and a different point of view
(We MUST get)
Tangled up in blue!

To paraphrase the show M*A*S*H: "Aaaaaah, Dylan!"

And bringing up the rear is J.L. in Los Angeles, CA with this year-in-review piece that brings to mind... well, Beowulf:

2002 is now history
Filled with drama and controversy
And political adversity
Lots to see
On E-V
How's your memory?
Starting with January...
Rudy Giuliani
Says "subpoenas aren't for me"
Manchin and Sinema get ornery
GOP blocks Fed nominees
Ukraine invaded by Russian military
Everybody loves V. Zelenskyy
Clarence and Ginni
Scheming activity
Farewell, Jen Psaki
Republican AGs
Sue over border policy
CRT is public enemy
DeSantis takes on Disney
SCOTUS is leaky
Let there be...
Primaries!
Meanwhile, gas is getting costly
Massacre in Uvalde
Is buying guns too damn easy?
Oz will be the PA nominee for the GOP
Even though he's from New Jersey
The 1/6 Committee
Holds hearings about the attack on democracy
With weekly testimony
About conspiracy
Skillfully edited for TV
Herschel Walker's many babies!
The Supreme Court says Roe is history
Abortion is now state policy
Bans pop up across the country
Meanwhile, back in Washington, DC
We hear Cassidy
Reveal Trump's tantrum in the SUV
Steven Breyer, 83
Is replaced by Justice Ketanji
But SCOTUS is still 6-3
Biden meets with head Saudi
Fist pump seen as too friendly
Especially with Golf's new LIV
Steve Bannon found guilty
New York Post: Trump Is Unworthy
U.S. drone strike kills al Qaeda's Al-Zawahiri
Just as Taiwan gets a visit from Nancy
Car crash kills Rep. Jackie Walorski
An ad for Liz from Dick Cheney
She's got a real tough primary
And then the game changed suddenly
As Mar-a-Lago was raided quietly
Oh, did I say "quietly"?
Not with Trump screaming angrily!
He declassified those documents verbally
(And cleared some of them telepathically?)
He really needs to take this seriously
This info could put agents into jeopardy
Meantime, did Trump's attorney
Commit perjury
By saying all the docs were returned completely?
Oh, gee!
The Inflation Reduction Act could make history
Trying to help the economy
With investments into clean energy
To help fight climate change... finally!
In Wyoming's primary
Real bad news for Liz Cheney.
She'll have lots of free time come January.
Speaking of time that's free
A retirement announcement from Anthony Fauci
In Alaska, RCV
Results in a loss for the GOP
DeSantis weaponizes refugees
Is kidnapping still a felony?
A billionaire whose name starts with "E"
Buys Twitter for $44 billion with a "B"
And thus begins the insanity
Herschel Walker's campaign is in flaming debris
And things look just as bad in PA and AZ
A conservative wacko attacks Paul Pelosi
A new king and two new PMs for GB
Now their Prime Minister's name is Rishi
The SCOTUS tells a senator named Lindsey
That he must finally talk to a Georgia grand jury
And then we all vote for an R, I, or D
And a Republican red wave becomes a slim victory
Bad candidate quality
Democratic opportunity
Who will lead the RNC?
And then Trump declares his next candidacy
For the presidency
But first, please buy my cool NFT
A new Special Counsel comes from the AG
To investigate Trump's widespread villainy
The RNC orders an autopsy
And the Dems elect Hakeem Jeffries
To be the leader of the upcoming House minority
Raphael Warnock gets a big victory
(finally!)
Sinema switches to I from a D
But Senate Democrats keep their majority
And mess with the schedule for the next primary
After 10 months, an athlete named Brittney
Is released from a Russian penitentiary
And returned to her family
Marriage is protected for LGBT
From sea to sparkly sea
While McCarthy mates with Marjorie
The Supreme Court of NC
Says no to laws for voter ID
But don't get too happy
'Cause starting next year, the court's majority
Will shift to the GOP
The report from the 1/6 Committee
Points the finger at Trump and his cabal of lackeys
The most corrupt presidency
In history
Will leave a legacy
Of infamy
A surprise visit from Mr. Zelenskyy
Gets Washington photo-ops a'plenty
But shores up support as Ukraine fights off the Russkies.
And lastly
A government shutdown averted narrowly
Passing a $1.7 trillion budget (with a "T")
As the temps drop to 1 degree
(or less!)
Time to get out of DC
Have a Christmas that's merry
And come back when there's a Republican majority
In the House on January 3
To start investigations with wild glee
Assuming there's a speakership for Kevin McCarthy
Get the popcorn and watch the melee
As we enter 2023!

Happy New Year from (V) and (Z)
And also from me!

Hear, Hear!

Thanks to everyone who sent submissions; we got over 700 poems this year. January, of course, is predictions month; we'll get started on that tomorrow. (Z)

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