Maine to Trump: We're Giving You the Boot

You win some, you lose some. On Wednesday, Donald Trump got a small win on the ballot access front when the Michigan Supreme Court allowed him to remain on that state's primary ballot. On Thursday, he got a considerably bigger loss when Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows (D) decided the former president would be removed from that state's primary ballot.

You can read Bellows' decision here, if you wish. It's 34 pages and it's very thorough and very well-reasoned. She engaged directly with the constitutional issues that this matter raises, finding that Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment is self-executing, that it applies to presidents and presidential candidates, and that Trump engaged in insurrection. There is some talk that Trump did not get due process here, but there was a hearing and there were opportunities to submit briefs, which Trump's team availed themselves of.

Thursday's decision breaks new ground in two important ways. First, although there was an adjudication process, this is the first ballot-access decision rendered by an elected, executive branch official, as opposed to a judge or a group of judges. Second, this is the first decision that, if it stands, would likely cost Trump electoral votes. He's not competitive in Colorado (where he lost access), nor is he terribly likely to win Minnesota or Michigan (where he has retained access, thus far). However, he won one EV in Maine in 2016 and again in 2020. The northern portion of the state is pretty Trumpy, so there's no reason to think he wouldn't do it again, if he stays on the ballot.

All of this said, what we wrote yesterday remains true: The real importance of these cases, whether Trump wins or loses, is that they are going to force the U.S. Supreme Court to take up the matter and to produce some sort of ruling as to what the Fourteenth Amendment really means. Even before yesterday's ruling, we thought it inevitable that SCOTUS would have to get involved. But now that there are actual EVs in play? They definitely can't run and they definitely can't hide. (Z)

The Civil War: Nikki Haley Flip-Flops on Cause

One might think that a resident—and certainly a former governor—of South Carolina would have a pretty good idea of what caused the Civil War. Y'all know, the little dustup that happened after some folks in that state fired on Fort Sumter on April 12, 1861? And in case Haley didn't learn about the subject in school, her tenure as governor saw the establishment of the Old Slave Mart Museum at 6 Chalmers St. in Charleston, which itself has a few clues as to the cause of the Civil War.

Despite this background, on Wednesday at a campaign stop in Berlin, NH, a voter asked Haley to identify the cause of the Civil War. She responded: "I think the cause of the Civil War was basically how government was going to run, the freedoms and what people could and couldn't do." It is true that most historians do think that "freedom" and "people" were indeed in the picture, but usually they are quite a bit more precise about which people did and did not have freedom and how this fit into the big picture.

The questioner said Haley's answer was astonishing, since she didn't mention, you know, slavery. This exchange could cause problems for her in New Hampshire, which was most definitely not a pro-slavery state in 1861. No doubt she was thinking ahead to the South Carolina primary, where her answer would probably be a plus with Republican primary voters. Her surge in the polls against Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and Donald Trump has led some people to think Haley is some kind of closet liberal. She is not. She is as conservative as all the other Republicans. People are starting to forget that, and her remarks in New Hampshire may remind them that she is a conservative Southern Republican at heart. The difference between her and the rest is that she isn't crazy.

Afterwards, Haley said the question was from a "Democratic plant." In other words, questions from Democrats don't count. Of course, if she gets the GOP nomination, there will be many questions from Democrats, so she better get used to it. In fact, she better get used to it right now. After the town hall, Joe Biden piped up and gave the correct answer. He said: "It was about slavery." And remember, Biden is from a slave state (Delaware), even though it fought for the Union.

Haley's comments quickly became big news and she realized she had made a boo-boo. About 12 hours after the initial statement, she tried to reverse course when she told a local radio interviewer: "Of course the Civil War was about slavery." Maybe she boned up on the Civil War by reading the Wikipedia article on it after the town hall. The first sentence of the article tells when it happened and who the belligerents were. The second one reads: "The cause of the war was the dispute over whether slavery would be permitted to expand into the western territories, leading to more slave states, or be prevented from doing so, which many believed would place slavery on a course of ultimate extinction." If you're going to distill it down to one sentence, that kind of nails it.

The combination of evading the question at first and then conceding when she got called on it tends to make Haley look less like The Never Trump savior and more like just another sleazy politician. She should have known better and just answered the question correctly the first time. (V)

Funding the Government: Johnson Has Let It Slide for Too Long

Back when the House kicked the can down the road by keeping the government funded for a few months, everyone hailed that as one of the all-time great pieces of legislation. Of course, all it did was move the deadline and split it into two parts. A piece of the government will shut down on Jan. 19 if nothing is done and another piece will shut down on Feb. 2 if nothing is done. So far there is no progress at all on anything, and Jan 19 is now only 3 weeks away, with the next week basically lost to the holidays. Oh, and the House has also not dealt with Joe Biden's request for aid to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and some border funding. Your tax dollars not at work.

There is almost no time left. The first step is to determine how much money will go to each department. Then thousands of details have to be filled in. That alone can take a couple of weeks. There is so much to do and so little time in which to do it. Here are some of the points that are going to be very rough and will test Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to the limit.

• More Defense Spending: Both parties (and Joe Biden) want to increase defense spending, over and above the $886 billion signed into law a couple of weeks ago. The trouble is, spending a lot more on defense would bump up against the debt ceiling limit and the Freedom Caucus does not want to raise the limit. However, there are probably enough votes for defense spending without the FC votes, so once an amount is agreed upon, this should be the easiest problem to solve.
  
  
• Less Everything Else Spending: Republicans want to slash spending for just about everything else. Democrats want to raise non-defense spending. This is a perpetual problem. When the parties negotiate in good faith, it can usually be solved, but now the Republicans not only don't negotiate in good faith, they regularly renege on agreements they made in the past.
  
  
• No Emergency Spending: Senate Democrats and Republicans have agreed on $69 billion in extra "emergency" funding. This gets around the debt limit ceiling. The deal also reduces IRS funding by $10 billion, something Republicans want because although they love going after "welfare cheaters," for some reason they are much less interested in going after income tax cheaters. House conservatives want to ditch the whole thing and not have any emergency spending.
  
  
• Poison Pills: The funding bill House Republicans want to pass is full of stuff not related to government spending, including bans on abortion, drag shows, pride flags, diversity and inclusion efforts, and much more, none of which are acceptable to House or Senate Democrats. Democrats are going to scour the bill to see if somewhere in the middle of page 1615 there is a sentence like: "Effective immediately, all abortions in the United States and its territories are hereby forbidden."
  
  
• How to Sell It: Usually in this kind of panic situation in December or January, all the funding bills are packaged together into one giant omnibus bill. However, many members have gotten tired of this. Since there are now two deadlines on different dates, there is some interest in two "minibus" bills that are not quite as unwieldy. Actually doing it the normal way, one bill per department, isn't done anymore because that increases the attack surface for enemies of all government spending.
  

So will there be a government shutdown in January or February? Maybe and maybe not. A lot depends on Johnson's cat-herding skills, which haven't really been tested yet. (V)

May You Live in Interesting Times: A Weird Arrangement Could be on Tap in 2025

Divided government is nothing new for the U.S. In theory, the system of checks and balances makes that possible—in contrast with parliamentary systems, in which the party or coalition of parties that controls the lower chamber of the parliament gets to name the prime minister and run the show with largely unchecked power until the next election. With the three elected parts of the U.S. government being the presidency, Senate, and House, there are six ways to have divided government: DDR (Democratic president and Senate, Republican House), DRD, DRR, RDR, RRD, and RDD. Right now, we have the first combination, DDR. However, in January 2025 we could have DRD. This is very rare, since we have to go back to the 50th Congress (1887-1889) for the last time a Democratic president and House had to contend with a Republican Senate.

To achieve this situation, a plausible, but very rare, event will have to take place: both chambers of Congress flip, but in opposite directions. In the Senate, the Democrats face a brutal map and need to hang on in two very red states, Ohio and Montana, as well as in some other tough states. In the House, there are many factors pointing to the slim Republican majority giving way to a more substantial Democratic majority. And of course, to get DRD, Joe Biden will have to win a tough race, but historically, incumbent presidents have won about two-thirds of their races, so a Biden win would hardly be unprecedented.

An analysis of national demographics sheds light on why a Republican Senate should be normal. The median state population is 4.58 million, halfway between Kentucky (4.51 million) and Louisiana (4.66 million). The people who live in the 25 less-populous states, from Kentucky on down to Wyoming, tend to be much more rural, non-college-educated, white, and Republican than the national average. Their 50 senators should "naturally" be Republicans. With Louisiana being the next state above Kentucky on the list, no wonder Democrats can't achieve big majorities in the Senate.

Race is a big factor here. Among the 25 least-populous states, only five (Alaska, Hawaii, Mississippi, Nevada, and New Mexico) are more racially diverse than the nation as a whole. When you look at lack of a college degree and which states are the most rural, the 25 least-populous states score again. There are 23 states left where non-college whites are still in the majority, and 15 of those 23 are among the 25 least populous states.

Demographics are much of the story, but not all of it. Geography also plays a role. While the South is solidly Republican, the Southwest isn't anymore. After the 2002 election, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico provided Republicans with 6 senators. Now all eight seats are occupied by Democrats.

All this said, there are 18 Democratic senators from the 25 least-populous states (Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Rhode Island, Oregon, Montana, and Vermont). Still, the skewed demographics do give the Republicans a good start, which is added to by some of the big red states, like Texas, Florida, and Ohio. All in all, the possibilities for the Democrats to have anything but the barest majority in the Senate any time soon are low. They already have the four Senate seats from the most recent swing states, Arizona and Georgia. The only possible other swing state where the Democrats could eventually capture both Senate seats is North Carolina. Other than that, the pickins are slim. (V)

Federal Judge to Georgia Legislature: I'll Let the New Map Go-Go

The Republican-controlled Georgia state legislature drew a map that split up a majority Black district. The courts ruled that this violated the Voting Rights Act. So the Republicans tried again. This time they split up a multiracial district, GA-07, currently occupied by Rep. Lucy McBath (D-GA), and created a majority-Black district west of Atlanta. McBath's district is D+10, so although a Black candidate, like McBath, is not a shoo-in, a Black candidate has a decent chance. The net effect was to get rid of a district that a Black candidate could likely win and replace it with a district a Black candidate could certainly win, but to leave the rest of the extreme gerrymander unchanged. Naturally, there was a lawsuit about it.

Yesterday federal judge Steve Jones, who is Black and an appointee of Barack Obama, gave the legislature a win, at least on round 1. Democrats claimed that by dismantling a mixed-race district, Republicans had violated the VRA. Jones ruled that since the gutted district was not majority Black, the new map did not technically violate the VRA. However, he noted that the Democrats could bring back the case if they formulated their case differently. They will almost certainly do that.

Meanwhile, McBath said that she will run in the new district. It is a bit early to see who else will run there in either party. (V)

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Galusha Grow's Galoshes

Let's jump right into it. A rundown of last week's headline theme, courtesy of J.N. in Zionsville, IN:

Today's headlines all contain references to speakers of the house.

1. John Nance Garner (Cactus Jack)
2. Galusha A. Grow (quite possibly the most famous Galusha of all time, after the Canadian curler Kerry Galusha)
3. Kevin McCarthy (My Kevin)
4. Henry Clay (The Great Compromiser)
5. Joseph G. Cannon (Uncle Joe)
6. Charles F. Crisp (Charlie)
7. John Bell (The Great Apostate)
8. John White (who I just learned killed himself because he plagiarized Aaron Burr... a sentence you don't read everyday)

I'm still not sure that these are all real people.

Thanks, J.N.! And we're not 100% sure either.

Here are the first 20 readers to get it right:

1. L.D. in Bedford, MA
2. T.P. in Kings Park, NY
3. J.N. in Zionsville
4. B.U. in St. Louis, MO
5. M.B. in Albany, NY
6. M.S. in Canton, NY
7. E.P. in Tillson, NY
8. E.B. in Avon, IN
9. J.N. in Las Vegas, NV
10. D.E. in High Springs, FL
11. J.H. in Lake Forest, CA
12. R.D. in Cheshire, CT
13. W.V. in San Jacinto, CA
14. N.H. in London, England, UK
15. R.B. in Fairfax, VA
16. E.M. in Jersey City, NJ
17. B.P. in Salt Lake City, UT
18. J.P.E. in Sacramento, CA
19. D.H in Portland, OR
20. D.W.B. in Waynesville, NC

As to this week's theme, we guess it would fit under "Sports and Leisure" among Trivial Pursuit categories, but that's only because it REALLY doesn't fit any of the other five options. As to a hint, we'll tell you that if you examine the headlines carefully, you're kind of a shoo-in to figure it out. If you have a guess, send it to comments@electoral-vote.com. (Z)

A December to Rhymember, Part XIX: Let It Snow

Today, a trio of biting takes on two Christmas classics. First, J.T.B. in Manhattan, NY, with a spin on "White Christmas":

I'm dreaming of a white pigment
Just like the one I used to know
Where the Klan hoods glisten
And Fox "News" listeners
Heil Hitler in the snow

I'm dreaming of a white pigment
With every imm'grant ban I write
May all gays be harried with fright
And may all our citizens be white.

And now, R.B. in Chicago, IL reimagines "T'was the Night Before Christmas":

T'was the month before Iowa, with commercials over the air,
But not a thing was stirring, not even Don's hair:
The ex-pres missed all the Republican debates,
He refused to partake with those other lightweights:

Instead he sat in a hostile courtroom afar,
Making fake accusations, some that were even bizarre:
He challenged the judge and his imposed gag order,
While it was appealed, he created more disorder:

Then down in Florida there was such a clatter,
The stalling of his trial was all the chatter:
Judge Cannon was dragging her slow legal feet,
Hoping this case would move on to take a backseat:

But in Atlanta his racketeering companions did flip,
Many took the plea deal, when they lost their firm grip:
He continues to whine and make motions to stall,
Reducing the legal system to a monotonous crawl:

Don continues to maneuver and downplay his transgressions,
The results of 2020 were still his main obsessions:
How could he have lost to an old sleepy man,
Why, Joe doesn't even have a fake orange tan:

But now he's surrounded by his true loyal lackeys,
Who travel to Mar-a-Lago to kneel in their khakis:
They praise and adore him at his over estimated estate,
While they planned to elect him until twenty-twenty-eight:

New Speaker! Now, Jordan! Now, Greene and Graham!
On, McCarthy! On, Gaetz, let's continue this scam!
To the halls of our Congress they all carried lies,
Doing little to pass laws or even compromise:

He continues to berate and belittle his foes,
No matter if it's Haley, Christie or Joe:
"It was stolen from me," he exclaimed to the masses,
"It was stolen by Sleepy Joe in those dark glasses!"

And a different take on the same work, from B.K.S. in Salem, OR:

T'was the night before Christmas, stores teeming with mobs,
everyone was exhausted, because they all had two jobs.
We had just arrived home at the hour of eleven,
the fast food, hurriedly grabbed, smelled just like heaven.

The children were already sleeping, and we had presents to wrap
(though with late-stage capitalism, it was mostly cheap crap).
We sat to begin, our meal and third job of the day
when from outside someone shrieked "It's a sin to be gay!"

I ran to the window and looked out in the yard
grabbing my pistol and preparing to guard.
A tint of orange fell on mostly wet range,
no snow as of yet due to climate change.

And what do I see, pretending to labor?
an armored SUV and eight tiny enablers.
With a sour-faced passenger, a dour old grump
I knew in an instant it must be Don Trump.

More hungry than vultures, his apologists they came
and he mostly ignored them, but called them by name:

"Now Jordan! Now Gaetz!
Now, Greene and Boebert!
On, Brooks! On, Johnson!
On Comer and Gohmert!
Now off to the media!
(especially Fox News)
and project onto Democrats
everything that I do!"

Like creatures of mist they vanished into the night,
and for a moment I stood there, shocked at the sight.

A toady hopped out, withered and hunched to the floor,
dye dripping down his cheek, he opened the side door.
"What the hell, Rudy? We're here for what reason?
I thought you told me that this was Four Seasons?"

He huffed and schlepped and shuffled up to the house
Kicking over some decor on the way: three candy canes, a shepherd, and a Christmas mouse.
(I would have defended my home, each man has his castle,
but the Secret Service had come from the back and were covering this hassle.)

His suit was ill-fitting, red tie down to his waist
it was bunched up and wrinkled, made by a tailor in haste.
He had an orange pallor, the pancake on thick,
thin hair petrified cover, all black-magic tricks.

He didn't stop at the stoop, and had a frown on his face,
and he just barged right in as if he owned the place.
"There isn't a pageant?" he said, his expression quite drab.
"I suppose there's no dressing room either, and nothing to grab?"

He puffed out his chest and leaned forward, his mouth drawn out to an "O,"
and I wondered if my wall would be soon covered in ketchup from a throw.
But then his eyes alighted on the fireplace, the mantle,
and he noticed our worldly treasures: ten vases, arrayed between candles.

He grabbed the one marked Obamacare and smashed it with glee.
"I'll replace it with something better, vote Trump and you'll see!"
The one for Environment he covered in red tape,
and filled it with oil, and coal, and lies, and hate.

Sovereignty went out the window, to shatter from his fling,
"Vlad will like that, and Kim, Orbán and Jinping!"
Like a cat, he pushed Justice to crash to the floor,
I waited, but he didn't bother to explain that one more.

He hit Peace and Truth and Autonomy with a hammer,
stuffed Equity and Health in his coat in an obvious manner.
He reached Wages, and froze them but added five bucks,
"The rich deserve more, so be thankful, you dumb schmucks."

Then he left in a huff, but on his way back
he stopped at my table and stole my Big Mac.
He said while he ate, now all sweaty and irked,
"Vote for Trump! Not the meatball, the birdbrain, the slob or the jerk!"

We sat in the wreckage, wondering what just went wrong,
his words in my brain rang loud like a gong.
But we don't like that Israel or Hamas is given no lumps,
By Biden, too old, so we're still voting Trump!

We'll have a couple more before wrapping it up for the season. (Z)

This Week in Schadenfreude: Giuliani Will Have His Day(s) in Court

Since Rudy Giuliani has already claimed the trophy for This Year in Schadenfreude, we thought we'd use the last schadenfreude of the year to review just how well and royally screwed he is on the legal front. Here is a rundown of his 11 pending cases, from least bad to most:

1. The Grocery Store Employee Lawsuit: While campaigning for his son in 2022, Giuliani got in a kerfuffle with a grocery store clerk named Daniel Gill. Gill claims Giuliani was the aggressor, Giuliani claims it was Gill. Video footage from the store backs Gill's version; he's sued for $2 million.
   
   
2. The Blueberry Farmers and the Ukraine Film: Giuliani announced, several years back, that he was making a film about Hunter Biden and Ukraine, and he got two right-wing California farmers to pony up $1 million toward the project. It never happened, and now they have sued to get their money back.
   
   
3. Hunter Biden's Laptop: Giuliani laid hands on the contents of Hunter Biden's laptop and used that information for political purposes. This almost certainly violated numerous laws, and the First Son has sued.
   
   
4. Unpaid Legal Bills: Davidoff Hutcher & Citron says it's done $1.5 million in legal work for Giuliani, and has been paid only $240,000. It has sued for the balance.
   
   
5. Dominion...: After the 2020 election, Giuliani spun wild tales about voting-machine makers Dominion and Smartmatic, and how they conspired to keep Donald Trump from winning. It was a tissue of lies, and both companies sued Giuliani (and others) for hundreds of millions in damages. The only reason these two aren't higher on the list is that by the time they are resolved, getting any money out of Giuliani will be like getting blood from a stone.
   
   
6. ... And Smartmatic: See above. This one is higher on the list than Dominion because Smartmatic, knowing they won't get money from Giuliani, is working on a case they hope will destroy whatever is left of his reputation.
   
   
7. Noelle Dunphy: Dunphy is a former employee of Giuliani and says he sexually assaulted her and stiffed her on wages. This will probably harm Giuliani's reputation more than Dominion/Smartmatic because "sex scandal" is easier for most people to parse than "he said mean things about two big companies."
   
   
8. The Georgia Election Workers: Ruby Freeman and Wandrea "Shaye" Moss already have a judgment, and a judge who's willing to help them collect as quickly as is possible. Giuliani filed for bankruptcy, but once that is adjudicated, these two women are more likely to get money than any person or entity who is lower on this list.
   
   
9. The Georgia Election Workers, Redux: Giuliani will face off against Freeman and Moss again, as he's continued to defame them, even after losing the first defamation suit. The jury is not likely to be kind to America's Former Mayor, and his odds of escaping judgment #2 via bankruptcy are even poorer than escaping judgment #1.
   
   
10. Unindicted Co-conspirator No. 1: Thus far, Jack Smith has focused on Donald Trump in the Washington election interference case, since there is a time-sensitive element there (you may not have heard, but Trump is running for president). Eventually, Smith is going to get around to indicting co-conspirator #1, who is dead to rights, just based on the evidence that's publicly known.
    
    
11. The Fulton County Criminal Case: The various civil cases are eventually going to take any money Giuliani has left, and at that point, the rest will primarily be about making a statement. The criminal cases, on the other hand, have the potential to take away his freedom, perhaps for the rest of his natural life. The Fulton case ranks above the Washington case because the Fulton case is already locked, loaded and ready to go.

Giuliani has hurt many people, and done many despicable things, and when he finally pays the piper, it will be richly deserved. (Z)

This Week in Freudenfreude: Good News from Around the Earth

For the last freudenfreude of the year, we thought we'd do a rundown of some of the good news that 2023 brought, around the globe. And so:

1. Pandemic I: COVID-19 is still with us, but the worst is in the rearview mirror. There are both vaccines and medications that are generally effective, the World Health Organization has declared it is no longer a global emergency, and the Global Happiness Index is back to where it was before the pandemic hit.
   
   
2. Pandemic II: Medicines that treat those individuals affected with AIDS, and that block transmission to new carriers, raise the very real possibility that the disease will be effectively eradicated by 2030.
   
   
3. Begone!: Individual countries have also had success with vanquishing epidemic diseases. Bangladesh became the first country to eliminate visceral leishmaniasis, Iraq became the seventeenth to eliminate trachoma, and Belize has banished malaria from its borders.
   
   
4. Golden Age of Medicine: In addition to the above advances, 2023 saw the introduction of promising new cancer treatments based on mRNA, dramatic progress toward cracking the code on Alzheimer's Disease, the promulgation of a new cost-effective malaria vaccine, the release of the first RSV vaccine, the creation of two new treatments for sickle cell disease, and the development of a new pill that targets postpartum depression.
   
   
5. Fossil Fuels: Nearly 200 nations signed an agreement at COP28 to "transition away from fossil fuels." It's not the end for fossil-fuel-based energy, obviously, but it's a big first step. Also on that front, global carbon emissions and emissions from China both dropped for the first time ever, thanks primarily to increased adoption of wind, solar and hydroelectric power. Worldwide, for every $1 invested in fossil fuel extraction in 2023, $1.80 was invested in renewables. This year also saw the launch of the world's largest solar farm (in the United Arab Emirates) and the world's largest wind farm (in the United Kingdom).
   
   
6. 1.21 Gigawatts: Scientists are also getting closer to making nuclear fusion a reality, potentially unlocking a major source of power that is much more eco-friendly than fission-based energy.
   
   
7. Electric Vehicles: Industrialized countries around the world saw record sales of electric vehicles. In the U.S., EVs now account for 8% of all new vehicle purchases.
   
   
8. Gay Pride, Worldwide: Five nations began allowing same-sex partnerships in 2023: South Korea, Peru, Estonia, Latvia and Nepal.
   
   
9. Wage Gap: Women workers in the U.S. still earn less than men, but the aggregate gap is as narrow as it has ever been, with the ratio for full-time workers now standing at 84 cents (women) for every dollar (men).
   
   
10. Votes for Women: The final holdout in the world, Vatican City, granted suffrage to women in 2023. Women now have the legal right to vote everywhere, even if their rights are not always observed (ahem, Afghanistan).

We narrowed it down to 10, to make things manageable, but this is not an exhaustive accounting by any means. The world is getting better, in many ways, even if most of the stuff we hear about is how it's getting worse.

Have a good weekend, all! (Z)

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