2023-24 Defense Budget: Project Greenlight

Well, this was a bit of a surprise. Everyone knows that the annual defense appropriations bill is a sacred cow; nobody wants to run for reelection and be accused of failing to support the troops. So, House Republicans stuffed several culture wars items into this year's bill, and passed it. That's not the surprise. Then, the Senate stripped out a bunch of the culture wars stuff, and passed the amended version. That's not the surprise. Then, the House took a (quick) look at the amended bill and... promptly passed it. That's the surprise.

The final version of the bill allocates $886 billion for the military in FY 2023-24, an increase of $28 billion over FY 2022-23. Service members will get a 5.2% pay raise, an inspector general will be given responsibility for overseeing Ukraine aid and, at long last, certain records relating to UFOs will be made available to the public through NARA. Priorities! Controversially, the bill extends the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which allows for warrantless surveillance of foreign nationals, to April 19. The members hope to work out a permanent resolution on that matter in the new year.

As to the culture wars, the House had included provisions forbidding the military from helping service members to get abortions or to receive gender-affirming care. Those are gone. On the other hand, provisions aimed at ending "wokeness" in the military survived. The military can no longer fund drag shows, or display the LGBTQ pride flag at military installations, or teach Critical Race Theory at service academies or Department of Defense schools. Priorities!

The bill passed the Senate 87-13, with 42 Democrats, 43 Republicans and 2 independents voting for, and 6 Democrats, 6 Republicans and 1 independent (Bernie Sanders, I-VT) voting against. In the House, the vote was 310-118, with 167 Democrats and 143 Republicans voting for, and 45 Democrats and 73 Republicans voting against. To a greater or lesser extent, it was the fringier members of each party who opposed the bill, albeit often for the same reason (they don't like FISA).

If you are getting the sense that every major bill to pass the House this session, and actually get signed into law, attracted more Democratic than Republican votes, you are on the mark. For the defense bill, 53% of the yeas were from Democrats. For the two stopgap bills that have kept the government operating, it was 62% Democratic yeas. For the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023, it was 53% Democratic yeas. It would seem that if the Senate is controlled by Democrats, and the White House is controlled by a Democrat, a bill has to be broadly acceptable to House Democrats in order to become law. Who knew? Presumably this is why Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) hustled the revised bill through the House—he got a little bit of the culture wars stuff, and pushing for any more would just have left the military unfunded with House Republicans holding the bag. Maybe he's more pragmatist, and less True Believer, than it seemed.

In any event, things are humming along well enough that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) decided to shorten the Senate's recess in hopes of hammering out a deal on border funding (and, presumably, money for Ukraine and Israel). The House is in recess for the rest of the year, but if Schumer & Co. come up with something that gets bipartisan support, Johnson will presumably call his chamber back into session. Whether Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) shows up, in that event, is anyone's guess (see below). (Z)

Congressional Personnel News: Cheers!

Three members of the House bid farewell to the chamber yesterday, albeit in different ways. We'll start with Kevin McCarthy, as we already mentioned him above. Inasmuch as he's resigning as of Dec. 31, and yesterday was the House's last day in session for 2023, he has reached the end of the line. He gave the customary "farewell" speech to a nearly empty House gallery, which meant it was actually kind of... sad (if you want to see for yourself, the video is here). His remarks were full of empty platitudes, on the general theme of "you have to do what's right, even if it's not popular." We would be more impressed with that message if McCarthy had ever actually followed his own advice while in office. For example, supporting Donald Trump's efforts to subvert the 2020 election seems a heck of a lot more like doing what's popular (at least, among Republicans) than doing what's right.

The other two "adieus" aren't immediate, just announcements that the member will join the horde of representatives heading for the door once this Congress expires. The latest additions to the retirements list are Drew Ferguson (R-GA) and Wiley Nickel (D-NC). Ferguson says he wants to spend more time with his family. His district, GA-03, is R+18 and so is sure to stay in Republican hands. Nickel's retirement, after just one term, is an acknowledgment of the fact that new, gerrymandered maps of North Carolina are going to leave him on the outside looking in. He says he isn't done with politics, and that he is potentially interested in running for Thom Tillis' (R-NC) seat when it comes up in 2026. This makes 33 retirements so far, 11 Republican and 22 Democratic.

And finally, as long as we are at it, New York Republicans have selected their candidate for the special election for "George Santos'" now-vacant seat. It is Mazi Melesa Pilip. She is an Ethiopian-born Jew whose family fled to Israel when she was a child, and is a veteran of the Israeli Defense Forces. That's quite an... unusual demographic profile. One has to assume that the central planks of her campaign will involve the ongoing situation in Israel, and allegations that Democrats tolerate and/or encourage antisemitism. We'll see how well that works against Tom Suozzi, who attracted the lion's share of the Jewish vote in his three elections to this same seat. (Z)

Trump Legal News: Breaking Bad

Donald Trump got a sliver of good news on the legal front on Wednesday, but since then everything appears to be breaking against him. That's generally how it runs for him these days.

The sliver of good news came when Judge Tanya Chutkan paused the criminal trial scheduled for March 4, acknowledging that while questions of presidential immunity were being appealed to courts higher than hers, she could not move forward. This appeared to give Trump some small hope that the trial would be postponed.

Yesterday, however, the D.C. Court of Appeals granted the request by Special Counsel Jack Smith to address the question. Trump is required to submit a legal brief by Dec. 23; Smith is required to respond by Dec. 30; Trump is required to respond by Jan. 2. And so, it is likely there will be a decision by the first or second week in January. Since much of the time in between now and then is holiday season, relatively little time will be lost.

At the same time, of course, Jack Smith has asked the Supreme Court to weigh in on the same question. SCOTUS is acting with all due haste, as well. The Supremes would probably prefer that the process play out normally, and that the Court of Appeals do the work of writing up a decision, so that SCOTUS can just affirm it (or, failing that, set it aside, or order reconsideration of some points). The timeline appears to be working out in a manner that should make that very possible. Of course, SCOTUS could decide to jump the line, in which case there will be a resolution even more quickly.

Add it up, and in the opinion of former prosecutors Norman L. Eisen, Joshua Kolb, and E. Danya Perry (and numerous other commentators), it is very likely that Trump will lose his appeals, and that he'll do so quickly enough to keep the Mar. 4 case on schedule. So, it's looking like it will be a blue Christmas at Mar-a-Lago. (Z)

Pop Quiz: Love, American Style (Part II)

On Wednesday, we put together a little quiz based on YouGov's polling about the most (and least) liked political figures in America. Here are the answers:

1. Who is the most popular political figure overall?
      • Jimmy Carter (58% popularity)
      • Bill Clinton (48%)
      • Barack Obama (59%)
      • Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) (51%)
      • Arnold Schwarzenegger (58%)
   
   34.3% of readers got it right; 28.8% of readers chose Arnold Schwarzenegger, the most common wrong answer.
   
   
2. Among the 287 political figures being tracked, where does Joe Biden rank?
      • Number 6
      • Number 36
      • Number 86
      • Number 106
      • Number 206
   
   7.6% of readers got it right; 33.2% of readers chose Number 106, the most common wrong answer.
   
   
3. Among the 287 political figures being tracked, where does Donald Trump rank?
      • Number 12
      • Number 42
      • Number 92
      • Number 112
      • Number 212
   
   16.4% of readers got it right; 38.3% of readers chose Number 212, the most common wrong answer.
   
   
4. Who is the most popular GOP presidential candidate?
      • Chris Christie (24%)
      • Ron DeSantis (35%)
      • Nikki Haley (32%)
      • Vivek Ramaswamy (29%)
      • Donald Trump (42%)
   
   65.1% of readers got it right; 28.3% of readers chose Nikki Haley, the most common wrong answer.
   
   
5. Who is the most popular current or former governor in America?
      • Greg Abbott (R-TX) (31%)
      • Ron DeSantis (35%)
      • Gavin Newsom (D-CA) (34%)
      • Sarah Palin (32%)
      • Jared Polis (D-CO) (24%)
   
   3.4% of readers got it right; 43.2% of readers chose Jared Polis, the most common wrong answer.
   
   
6. Who is the most popular female political figure in America?
      • Hillary Clinton (43%)
      • Kamala Harris (43%)
      • Sen. Amy Klobuchar (DFL-MN) (39%)
      • Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) (42%)
      • Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) (44%)
   
   30.2% of readers got it right; 25.9% of readers chose Amy Klobuchar, the most common wrong answer.
   
   
7. Who is the most popular Black political figure in America?
      • Ben Carson (40%)
      • Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) (30%)
      • Kamala Harris (43%)
      • House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) (32%)
      • Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) (34%)
   
   16.5% of readers got it right; 38.2% of readers chose Hakeem Jeffries, the most common wrong answer.
   
   
8. Who is the most popular former senator (who never served as VP or president)?
      • Bob Corker (18%)
      • Al Franken (37%)
      • Bill Frist (23%)
      • John Kerry (36%)
      • Rick Santorum (23%)
   
   69.2% of readers got it right; 20.4% of readers chose John Kerry, the most common wrong answer.
   
   
9. Who is the most popular deceased political figure?
      • Madeleine Albright (37%)
      • Bob Dole (36%)
      • Henry Kissinger (35%)
      • John Lewis (31%)
      • Walter Mondale (33%)
   
   25.1% of readers got it right; 46.4% of readers chose John Lewis, the most common wrong answer.
   
   
10. Who is the least popular political figure in America?
       • Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY) (14%)
       • Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) (36%)
       • Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) (30%)
       • Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) (36%)
       • Phyllis Schlafly (18%)
    
    2.6% of readers got it right; 73.2% of readers chose Ted Cruz, the most common wrong answer.
    
    Tiebreaker: From 0 to 100, What is the current approval rating of Senate Minority Leader Addison Mitchell "Mitch" McConnell? (22%)
    
    3.4% of readers got it right; the average guess was 28.95%.
    
    

Of the 1,500 readers who took the survey, here are the 15 (well, 16) who put up the best scores:

   • 15t. S.S. in West Hollywood, CA: 7 correct, missed tiebreaker by 7
   • 15t. S.N. in Charlotte, NC: 7, 7
   • 14. W.T. in Binghamton, NY: 7, 6
   • 13. G.R. in Mesa, AZ: 7, 5
   • 10t. E.K. in Brignoles, France: 7, 4
   • 10t. S.W. in Raleigh, NC: 7, 4
   • 10t. R.H. in Lansing, MI: 7, 4
   • 9. R.A. in Arlington, VA: 7, 3
   • 8. R.S. in Peoria, AZ: 7, 2
   • 7. A.C. in Columbus, OH: 8, 17
   • 6. J.-P.M. in Montpellier, France: 9, 0
   • 5. J.P.B. in Phoenix, AZ: 9, 0
   • 4. D.K. in Slab City, CA: 10, 6
   • 3. J.K.P. in Tampa, FL: 10, 3
   • 1t. R.J.S. in Phoenix, AZ: 10, 2
   • 1t. T.P. in Clovis, CA: 10, 2

The average score was 2.68, the median was 3 and the mode was 3.

Now let's talk a little bit about what it all means. First, we acknowledge that the approach here is a bit wonky, in two ways. First, because YouGov is combining data from many different sets of respondents. Second, because the pollster is using "popularity" rather than "approval" so that non-officeholders can be included.

That said, we don't think it's too big a problem. First, because most of the numbers here track pretty well with what we already knew (e.g., Joe Biden's approval, Donald Trump's approval, etc.). Second, because even if the individual numbers are a little off, the relative relationship is probably still correct. That is to say, it is clear that, say, Nikki Haley is less popular than Donald Trump. That's not just a byproduct of the pollster's technique.

Anyhow, the obvious lesson here, which we wrote about yesterday, and which we've talked about many times, is that "popular politician" is a relic of the past. The five men in question one are the top five in YouGov's rankings. That means there are a grand total of four political figures in America above 50%, and only one of them is still in office. And when Jimmy Carter goes to the big peanut farm in the sky, the grand total will be down to three.

Meanwhile, the numbers for key modern-day political figures are ghastly. Joe Biden at 44%, Kamala Harris at 43%, Donald Trump at 42%. But you know whose numbers are worse? Everyone else. You could make a pretty good argument that these people have risen to the top because they are, if not the most beloved political figures in America, the least hated. And it should be clear that it's a fantasy that tossing Biden, Harris or Trump overboard in favor of a different candidate will lead their respective party to rally around the replacement and to sing a round of "Kumbaya."

Perhaps the most shocking result, of all the political figures, is the sub-40 for John Lewis. The man is a hero, an icon of the Civil Rights Movement, and is now deceased. Sure, there are racists out there, but you would think if anyone could pull a 60 or a 70, it would be him. And yet... not so much. To borrow from yesterday's headline, it really is clear the U.S. is in an era of "Rage and Grievance." And, in turn, it means that approval/popularity ratings cannot be interpreted in the context of past generations, when ratings above 50 and 60 and even 70 were fairly common.

Oh, and if you would like to see YouGov's numbers for yourself, they are here. (Z)

I Read The News Today, Oh Boy: Star Trek

Most people know that the original Star Trek has a theme song, alternatively titled "Star Trek," or "Theme from Star Trek" or "Where No Man Has Gone Before." Considerably fewer people know that the song also has lyrics (although it's possible that we've mentioned it before; if so, sorry). Anyhow, here they are:

Beyond
The rim of the star-light
My love
Is wand'ring in star-flight
I know
He'll find in star-clustered reaches
Love,
Strange love a star woman teaches.
I know
His journey ends never
His star trek
Will go on forever.
But tell him
While he wanders his starry sea
Remember, remember me.

They were not meant to be performed; producer Gene Roddenberry only wrote them so he'd get half the music royalties anytime an episode of the show was aired.

That pretty much tells you what last week's theme was, but to spell it out fully, we turn it over to reader J.N. in Zionsville, IN:

The headlines commonality this week is that each was once the theme song for a TV show:

1. "Falling": Theme to Twin Peaks
2. "We Used to Be Friends": Theme to Veronica Mars
3. "Good Ol' Boys": Theme to The Dukes of Hazzard
4. "Welcome Back": Theme to Welcome Back, Kotter
5. "Emergency!": Theme to Emergency!
6. "Love Is All Around": Theme to The Mary Tyler Moore Show
7. "Way Down in the Hole": Theme to The Wire
8. "Think!": Theme to Jeopardy!
9. "Where Everybody Knows Your Name": Theme to Cheers
10. "Those Were the Days": Theme to All in the Family

This e-mail was typed in front of a live studio audience.

Thanks, J.N.!

We're still thinking about a better way to choose the "winners"; for now we're just going to expand the Top 10 to a Top 20:

1. J.T. in Philadelphia, PA
2. R.L.D. in Sundance, WY
3. R.W. in Bensenville, IL
4. J.H. in Sturbridge, MA
5. A.W. in Brooklyn, NY
6. J.H. in Lake Forest, CA
7. S.F. in Hutto, /TX
8. I.G. in New York City, NY
9. N.S. in Los Angeles, CA
10. J.N. in Zionsville
11. M.B. in Albany, NY
12. A.J. in Baltimore, MD
13. D.S. in Chantilly, VA
14. K.H. in Golden, CO
15. J.S. in Springboro, OH
16. J.H. in El Segundo, CA
17. J.E. in Gilbertsville, PA
18. D.L. in Uslar, Germany
19. K.W. in Lafayette, IN
20. J.W. in Pomona, CA

This week's theme, largely by accident, is also TV-related. Obviously, each headline has the name of a TV show in it. Those shows have something in common; it's also common to hundreds of other shows, but the shows that appear here are particularly notable examples. As a hint, we will tell you that among the notable shows that DO NOT qualify for today's headline theme are Seinfeld, The Simpsons, The Wire, It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia, 30 Rock and Mad Men. Maybe The Sopranos, too, although that one's up for debate.

Send your guesses here! (Z)

A December to Rhymember, Part X: The Six Million Dollar Man

Actually, very soon, it could be the Twenty Million Dollar Man. Or maybe Thirty Million or Forty Million. That's from one vantage point; from the other it is almost certainly going to be the Zero Million Dollar Man.

We speak, of course, of Rudy Giuliani, who has made an absolute train wreck out of his defamation case in Georgia. We haven't written it up on a daily basis, because he's small potatoes, but closing arguments were yesterday, and Giuliani's counsel went with "Rudy just doesn't understand that Trump lost the election. He's like a flat-Earther." That should be very persuasive.

Anyhow, the jury has the case now, and is deliberating, and so we have a Rudy-centered submission today, from D.O. in Denver, CO:

For years, reading your site and chronicling the ever-more bizarre behavior by Rudy Giuliani, I've frequently heard the lyrics of this song inserting themselves into my head. Perhaps it's rare that lyrical advice, if observed, could have such a profoundly positive impact on someone's life, but "America's Mayor" missed the boat here. So, I'm submitting these song lyrics as "poetry" on behalf of original British-Jamaican composer, Dandy Livingstone, with those of the 1979 remake by The Specials.

A Message To You Rudy

Stop your messing around;
Better think of your future,
Time to straighten right out,
Creating problems in town.
Rudy,
A message to you, Rudy.
A message to you.
Stop your fooling around,
Time to straighten right out.
Better think of your future
Else you'll wind up in jail.
Rudy,
A message to you, Rudy.
A message to you, Rudy.
A message to you, Rudy...

More next week; send submissions here. (Z)

This Week in Schadenfreude: Pardon the Interruption

We suspect many readers will recall one of the most memorable scenes from the 1988 movie The Naked Gun. The slapstick humor in the film derives from the fact that the main character, police lieutenant Frank Drebin, thinks of himself as highly competent, but is actually a bumbling buffoon. To establish that fact, an early scene has Drebin appearing at a press conference where the participants are mic'd. After he delivers his spiel, Drebin gets bored and decides he needs to use the facilities. Here is the scene:

If only Lt. Drebin—or is it Enrico Palazzo?—had remembered to take off the microphone.

We bring this up because life imitated art this week. Remember the "Axis of Evil"? Well, X Spaces (a.k.a. Twitter Spaces) hosted an event featuring the Axis of Obnoxiousness this week: Alex Jones, Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. Think for a moment which of those three you would most like to see red-faced as the result of a Frank Drebin moment. Not an easy choice, is it? However, we think that fate settled upon the right person, as it was Ramaswamy who forgot to turn off his mic before answering nature's call.

You can listen to the audio at the link, if you wish (we can't find a way to embed it). However, Jones and Musk were initially surprised and embarrassed, with Jones declaring: "Someone's got their thing open peeing! Someone's got their phone open in the bathroom." Once the so-called presidential candidate had finished his business, Musk said: "Well, I hope you feel better now," and Ramaswamy replied: "I feel great, thank you. Sorry about that, guys."

Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy. To a nicer group of guys, really. (Z)

This Week in Freudenfreude: Happy Days

For the last 8 years, Poland has been led by the right-wing populist Law and Justice party (PiS). PiS banned abortions, stacked the Polish judiciary with hyperpartisan judges, cracked down on LGBTQ people, restricted voting rights and pursued an isolationist foreign policy, among other things. Perhaps this sounds familiar.

The Polish people grew weary with this approach, and so in the recent (complicated) elections, they handed a majority of the seats to non-PiS parties. PiS remains the largest party in the Polish parliament, but nobody was willing to work with Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki to form a government. And so, he failed, paving the way for Donald Tusk, of the Civic Coalition (KO), to reclaim the job he held from 2007-14.

The freudenfreude element here is this: Not only did the Polish people decide they wanted a change, they became deeply invested in making sure it happened. As the maneuvering that confirmed Morawiecki's downfall was in process, the Polish parliament, a.k.a. the Sejm, began live-streaming its meetings. And the streams were wildly popular, attracting more than 1 million people a day. In fact, it is such a phenomenon that the Polish media has dubbed it Sejmflix. Movie theaters have even taken to showing the livestreams, and selling popcorn to those who want to watch.

There is something very uplifting in seeing that a country whose democracy was seriously threatened responded not by giving up, but by rallying the troops, and by engaging in the political process with enthusiasm and optimism. In particular, the return of Tusk was driven by women and young people. One can only hope that any other nations who happen to be faced with the specter of an undemocratic regime respond in a similar fashion. (Z)

---

If you wish to contact us, please use one of these addresses. For the first two, please include your initials and city.

• questions@electoral-vote.com    For questions about politics, civics, history, etc. to be answered on a Saturday
• comments@electoral-vote.com   For "letters to the editor" for possible publication on a Sunday
• corrections@electoral-vote.com To tell us about typos or factual errors we should fix
• items@electoral-vote.com            For general suggestions, ideas, etc.

To download a poster about the site to hang up, please click here.

---

Email a link to a friend or share:

---The Votemaster and Zenger