DeSantis' Super PAC Is in Complete Meltdown

Ever notice how when a candidate's campaign and/or PACs are in meltdown mode, the end is generally nigh? Then look closely at Ron DeSantis' campaign and super PAC. It's total chaos over there. That is not a sign of a happy, healthy campaign. Nine days ago, the super PAC, Never Back Down, fired its CEO, Chris Jankowski, and hired Kristin Davison as the replacement. Now it has fired Davison and replaced her with Scott Wagner for unspecified "management and personnel issues." Oh, and former Nevada AG Adam Laxalt is also out as board chairman. And spokesperson Erin Perrine was also terminated, as was director of operations Matt Palmisano and others. Happy campaigns don't usually pull this kind of stuff 5 weeks before the first nominating contest.

Insiders are saying that DeSantis is unhappy with what the super PAC is up to. Technically and legally, it is none of his damn business. By law, candidates and super PACs are not allowed to coordinate. If DeSantis is telling the super PAC what to do and ordering personnel changes, he is committing an election law felony. But what's a felony here and there when there is a caucus to be won? Supposedly, the super PAC is focusing on running ads, and they are not having any effect. What DeSantis apparently wants is for the focus to be on a Get Out The Vote (GOTV) drive.

The infighting is so bad that some DeSantis allies have formed a new super PAC, Fight Right, since the candidate has so little faith in the original one. What will happen to the old one is anyone's guess. Rumor has it that the old management moved most (or all) the money to the new one before the poop hit the ventilator. Suffice it to say, this is not how healthy, optimistic campaigns and super PACs operate. It looks like we are in Hail Mary territory here. (V)

Johnson's Job Just Got Tougher

As of today, the House breakdown is 221 Republicans, 213 Democrats, and 1 vacancy (NY-03). When Rep. Bill Johnson (R-OH) resigns early next year to become president of Youngstown State University, it will be 220R, 213D. If Kevin McCarthy resigns from the House shortly, as rumors suggest he will do, it will then be 219R, 213D. Under those conditions, any time three Republicans vote with the Democrats, the bill fails, 216-216. McCarthy's decision should be clear soon as the filing deadline for 2024 is Dec. 8. He's unlikely to file to run for reelection and then resign from the House 2 weeks later. Though note that failure to file does not necessarily imply an immediate resignation. In that case, he could still finish his current term out.

Vacant seats are filled by special elections, but those are typically 3 months after the vacancy occurs. The seats of Bill Johnson and McCarthy are safely Republican, but Democrats have a decent shot at winning NY-03, especially since their best candidate, Tom Suozzi, occupied that seat before "George Santos" ran for it. In the worst case scenario for the Republicans, the House could be 219R, 214D for a couple of months until all the seats are filled. The battle for the swing district, NY-03, could be a preview of the 2024 races, especially in the New York districts Republicans hold. Will the Democrat run on "All the Republicans are like 'Santos'" or will it be abortion or something else? Special elections normally are quiet affairs, but the one for "Santos'" seat will be a real barnburner.

In January, the House must pass bills to keep the government open. If Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) loads the bills full of conservative goodies, there could be a few defections, leading to a government shutdown. Johnson won't have much margin for error. If he bows to the Freedom Caucus, some of the Biden 18 may vote against him. If he doesn't bow to the FC, some of the FC members may vote against him. With such a thin margin, even a champion cat herder, like Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), would be challenged. Johnson probably couldn't herd sheep, even with five trained German shepherd dogs, let alone cats. (V)

Senate Republicans Are Not Interested in Repealing the ACA

Last week, Donald Trump went off on a rant, declaring that "Obamacare sucks" and that he would replace it with something better. Despite being asked many times what he would replace it with, Trump has failed to even come up with a proposal.

At least former Speaker Paul Ryan had a plan for Ryancare. He would allow insurance companies to reject sick people. This would result in something like 80% of the population being on private insurance. Since they were all healthy, premiums would go down due to competition. These happy people would all vote Republican, according to his plan. The other 20% would be allowed to enroll in a government health program funded by an annual appropriation from Congress. The catch? If the money ran out in August, no claims submitted in September-December would be paid. Sorry, try next year or write your congressman a letter asking for more money next year. Tip: Get sick in January, before the money runs out. Ryan never got anywhere with this. Trump has never even hinted what his plan would be.

It probably doesn't matter what Trump might propose. Forty million people now have health insurance through the ACA. Nine states (Idaho, Maine, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, and Virginia), with 15 Republican senators, have expanded Medicaid since 2017, the last time a vote to repeal the ACA was taken. Benedic Ippolito, a health-care specialist at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, said: "No matter how much Republicans dislike Obamacare, they're unlikely to jeopardize the massive federal Medicaid funding their states now receive. The money is just so powerful at the state level." In other words, it would be nearly impossible for Trump to repeal the ACA because most Republican senators (and all Democratic senators) would now vote against repeal. This reality makes Trump's promise to repeal the ACA very bad politics because so many high-ranking members of his own party oppose the idea.

Sen. Mitt Romney said he doesn't see "any impetus for reform efforts at all." Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA)—who played a key role in the 2017 repeal attempt—said of Trump: "Does he have a policy initiative that he is going to put forward? Or is it just a stream of consciousness musing?" A few Republican senators might be willing to tinker around the edges and make small adjustments to the ACA. Sen. Mike Rounds (R-SD) said: "If we had the time and we focused on it, I think we could do a better job than what Obamacare does in terms of providing choice and price." That doesn't sound like: "Rip it out, root and branch, right now."

If Trump is foolish enough to continue saying that he wants Obamacare repealed, it is probably going to cost him some votes from those 40 million people who have an ACA policy. Some of them are now insured for the first time and aren't keen on losing their insurance unless Trump is a bit more specific about what he will replace it with. Trump's advisers will no doubt tell him over and over just to forget the whole thing, but since he is obsessed with getting rid of Barack Obama's main achievement as president, he might not listen. The more he talks about it, the more ads Team Biden will be able to make opposing him. And these are easy ads to make. Just find a few people with seriously sick children or parents who are now finally getting medical care as a result of the ACA and you have the makings of a real tearjerker. No need to show charts with statistics about who is insured vs. 2008. Trump's comment is what in sports is called an "unforced error." (V)

Domestic Oil Production Is Up and It Could Be Good News for Environmentalists

Production of oil in the U.S. has gone up by 800,000 barrels a day since early 2022. It is now at 13 million barrels a day. This is more than Russia, Saudia Arabia, or any other country in the world is producing. It is also the highest it has ever been in all of history.

But the politics of oil are complicated. The glut of supply is driving down gas prices, thus encouraging more driving. This is making environmentalists tear out their hair, especially when world leaders are meeting in Dubai to try to deal with climate change.

But there are also some very big positive effects, albeit in the short term. For one, the U.S. now exports 4 million barrels of oil a day, more than any country except Saudi Arabia. This gives the U.S. leverage against Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and even Saudi Arabia. The U.S. still imports somewhat more oil than it exports, but oil is not entirely fungible. American refineries can more easily handle the heavy crude from Canada and Latin America than the lighter crude from New Mexico, Texas, and North Dakota. So it matters not only how much oil is produced, but what kind.

A side effect of the increased oil production is also increased natural gas production. Most electricity in the U.S. is produced in plants that burn natural gas. More gas means lower electricity prices.

But the biggest effect of more oil production might be felt on Nov. 5, 2024. For many voters, the key issue is not whether Joe Biden is too old or Donald Trump will end democracy for good in the U.S., but how much a gallon of gas costs at the pump. If increased production this year and next leads to lower gas prices next November, that could affect some votes. The average price of gas nationwide in November was $3.32/gallon. A year ago it was $3.69/gallon.

Gas prices are a better indicator than egg prices or milk prices or hamburger prices because for some voters, the entire state of the economy is summarized in a single number: How much does a full tank of gas cost me? If that goes up, the economy sucks and it's the president's fault. If it goes down, the president is doing his job well. It is a peculiarity of the economy that gas stations post gas prices in giant neon signs but supermarkets don't post egg prices visible 100 feet away, so people are much more aware of gas prices than other prices. Look:

Of course, the president has a limited amount of control over gas prices, but many voters don't know that. Even for environmentalists, more driving in 2024 plus a Biden win is certainly better for the planet long term than less driving in 2024 and a win by Donald Trump. As we have pointed out before, sometimes you need to look at the big picture. (V)

Chris Christie May Not Make the Stage at the Next Republican Debate

To make the stage for Wednesday's Republican debate at the University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa, candidates need to hit 6% in three national polls or two national polls and polls in two of the early states, as well as getting donations from 80,000 people. So far only four people have qualified: Donald Trump (who is not going to show up), Nikki Haley, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), and Vivek Ramaswamy. One person who would very much like to be there is Chris Christie. However, unless lightning strikes today (the deadline for qualifying polls), Christie won't make the cut. So far, Christie has hit 6% in New Hampshire, but not nationally and not in any of the other early states. Nationally, he is about 2%, not 6%. His #2 early state is Iowa, where he is at 4%. He is well over the 80,000-donor mark, but the polling looks bleak for him.

If he doesn't make the stage, he has a hard choice ahead of him. In August, he said that candidates who don't get on stage for all the debates should drop out. Reporters are already asking him if that applies to himself, as well as everyone else. He has consistently said: "I'm not considering dropping out."

This is where the rubber meets the road. Christie is an experienced politician. He knew from Day 1 that his chances of getting the GOP nomination were somewhere between zero and nil. He just wanted to prevent Donald Trump from getting the nomination. Now he has a choice: Stay in, come in third in New Hampshire, and then vanish without a trace, or drop out, endorse Nikki Haley and campaign hard for her. If he really wants to stop Trump, the only way to do it is for him to back the one candidate, Haley, who appears to have some faint chance of beating Trump in the event that the courts take him down. If she could consolidate the "not Trump" vote and keep going until after his D.C. trial is over, she might have a slim chance. The "keeps going" part depends on having campaign money, but the Kochtopus could handle that part of it. Christie surely knows this, but politicians have large egos. We'll probably find out in a week or so. If he stays in, we may get the political equivalent to the question "If a tree falls in the forest, does it make a sound if there is no one around to hear it?"

Another bit of bad news is that Christie's name may not appear on the Maine primary ballot. To make it, a candidate needed 2,000 valid signatures by last Friday. Christie submitted 6,000 signatures, but the state's director of elections said that only 844 were certified by local registrars, as required. Christie is appealing.

For the people on stage, the one with the most to win or lose is Haley. If she can just ignore Vivek "Scum" Ramaswamy and put DeSantis in his place, she could break out and become the clear alternative to Trump. That, along with, say, $100 million in ads thanks to the Kochtopus, and she could be positioned to come in second in the early states. From there, she could be positioned to get the GOP nomination if something took out Trump. If she hits on DeSantis all evening and not on Trump, she might even impress Trump that she is a fighter, and might have a small chance of getting him to pick her as his running mate. She's not ideal, for many reasons, but if he wants a woman running mate, all of the other contenders have their own issues. None are perfect. (V)

Presidents Are Not Immune to All Lawsuits

More than a few people were damaged in one way or another during the attempted coup on Jan. 6, 2021. Some were physically hurt, some were effectively held hostage (e.g. members of Congress), and others followed Donald Trump's advice, stormed the Capitol, and ended up in prison. A number of these folks would like to sue Trump. However, Trump has argued that a president is immune from lawsuits because, well, he is president. On Friday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia ruled 3-0 that, no, presidents are not immune to lawsuits for things they did and said that were not part of the job description of being president. Specifically, running for reelection is not part of the job description. Consequently, if it is later proven that the speech Trump gave at the Ellipse, which riled up the crowd to storm the Capitol, was not part of his official duties as president, but part of his reelection campaign, he can be sued for the consequences of that speech.

Trump can—and probably will—appeal the ruling to the Supreme Court. There he could argue that his speech was protected by the First Amendment, in which case, he probably can't be sued for engaging in protected speech. What also is likely to come up is whether the speech was an official event or a campaign event. That could hinge on who organized it and who paid for it. The appeals court specifically stated that when a first-term president seeks a second term, campaign events are not official acts and are not immune to lawsuits. So the case really isn't over. All that we now know is that there is no blanket immunity for everything a president does in office. He can still be sued for acts not related to carrying out the duties of the presidency.

Now the case will go back to the trial court where the lawsuits may commence—unless the Supreme Court orders them halted until it can rule. (V)

Trump's Former Lawyer Is Cooperating with Nevada Prosecutors in Fake Electors Case

Investigations and prosecutions of fake electors are going on in multiple states, including Nevada. The Nevada investigators, led by Nevada AG Aaron Ford (D), have just gotten a big boost, as Donald Trump's lawyer, Ken "The Cheese" Chesebro, has agreed to cooperate with the investigators in an attempt to avoid being indicted in Nevada. Chesebro was the one who dreamed up the "fake electors" plan in the first place, although another Trump lawyer, John Eastman, carried the ball after Chesebro described how it would work. Chesebro was indicted in Georgia and has already pleaded guilty there in a deal that requires him to testify there if requested to do so. He is also an unindicted co-conspirator in the federal case brought by Special Counsel Jack Smith, and could yet be indicted there as well.

Chesebro is expected to testify before a Nevada grand jury that will determine if the Nevada fake electors will be charged with a state crime. He knows much more than the investigators about the details of the whole scheme. He may also know how the fake electors were selected, who contacted them, and how they reacted when being asked.

The investigation has split the Nevada Republican Party. Amy Tarkanian, the former chair of the state Party, once supported Donald Trump but now calls him a threat to democracy. She wants to see the fake electors indicted and prosecuted. She said: "There need to be some repercussions, so it will make people think, very, very hard about trying to pull this kind of garbage off ever again."

Arizona AG Kris Mayes is also investigating the fake electors in her state. She has invited Chesebro to testify as part of her investigations and he has indicated his willingness to do so. Jack Smith has not given any indication in public that he needs Chesebro's assistance right now. On the other hand, he is not pursuing the fake electors, which is where Chesebro could be useful. (V)

Georgia Republicans Unveil a New House Map...

The courts ordered the Georgia state legislature to fix its gerrymandered map by creating a new majority-Black district. It did this by gutting a multiracial district currently represented by Rep. Lucy McBath (D-GA). Whether the judge will accept replacing a multiracial district with enough Black voters to elect a Black woman with a majority-minority district remains to be seen. The net effect of the new map is zilch. Republicans still have a 9-5 majority with the new map, same as the old map. It will be interesting to see if the judge is fooled. In the worst case (for the Republicans) the judge could appoint a special master to draw a completely new map from scratch with many competitive districts. The judge in the case is Steve Jones, who, in case it's relevant, is Black. (V)

...But a Florida Appeals Court Upholds the Old Map

Florida is another Southern state that never really warmed up to the idea that Black voters ought to have representation in the House. Consequently, the state legislature drew a highly gerrymandered map. But Ron DeSantis didn't like the new map—because it was insufficiently gerrymandered—so he vetoed it. Then he drew his own map and commanded the legislature to pass it, which it did. Democrats sued and a lower court threw DeSantis' map out. The legislature appealed.

Now a state appeals court has upheld DeSantis' map on the grounds that the state Constitution prohibits racial discrimination but does not require any kind of race-based affirmative action. In other words, the Black voters of Tallahassee and Jacksonville are not legally entitled to a majority-Black district. The court added: "Treating citizens as individuals without regard for race is the only way to ensure full and equal participation in the political process."

A case against the new map is ongoing in federal court. But note that Chief Justice John Roberts has said something pretty close to what the appeals court said: "The way to stop racial discrimination is to stop discriminating on the basis of race."

Back in the old days (when America was great?), the way to control the House was to get voters to elect more of your folks than the other team's. Now it is all about getting more judges to agree with your position. (V)

Florida Republican Party Faces a Crisis

The chairman of the Florida Republican Party, Christian Ziegler, and his wife, Bridget Ziegler, are a Florida power couple. She is a member of the Sarasota School Board as well as a member of the special board that Ron DeSantis created to run Walt Disney World, and is also co-founder of Moms for Liberty. In addition, she played a major role in banning books in schools and laying the groundwork for Florida's "Don't say gay" law. She stood behind the Governor when DeSantis signed the law. She is also one of Florida's leading anti-trans activists and has worked to bring religious values into the Florida schools. Nationally, she is a MAGA star. Both have campaigned on family values. They are good Christians and very strong believers in family values.

Or... maybe not. Christian Ziegler has now been accused of rape. The evidence is apparently strong enough that DeSantis has called for Ziegler to resign as party chairman. Ziegler defied DeSantis and has refused to resign.

But this is not your standard rape story. There is a wee bit more. The accuser alleges that Christian, Bridget, and she herself have been involved in a power sexual trio that has been going on for 3 years and that Christian secretly made videos of them. She also says that the alleged rape occurred at her home at a time that Bridget was supposed to show up for a trio but didn't appear. So Ziegler saw his chance and raped her. The Sarasota police have confirmed that a complaint was registered and that they have seized Ziegler's cell phone so they can search it for the videos. Surveillance video showed that Ziegler did arrive at the complainant's residence on the day of the alleged rape. The complainant called her sister immediately after the incident and the police have verified the call and interviewed the sister who confirmed the story. This makes the case much stronger than "he said/she said" since there is now a surveillance video and a witness who knew about it in real time.

Nikki Fried, the chair of the Florida Democratic Party, said: "Given the severity of the criminal allegations, I'm calling for his immediate resignation." This is the first time we can recall where she has agreed with DeSantis on anything. Fried also said: "As leaders in the Florida GOP and Moms for Liberty, the Zieglers have made a habit out of attacking anything they perceive as going against 'family values'—be it reproductive rights or the existence of LGBTQ+ Floridians. The level of hypocrisy in this situation is stunning." (V)

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