UnTucked

Quite a few outlets went with "Tuck Off!" Truth be told, if we had used that particular pun, we would have gone with: "Shut the Tuck Up!" However, that direction seems a bit obvious to us. On the other hand, when your shirttail is untucked, it indicates a state of disarray that was probably unplanned, and that will eventually be rectified. That seems to be a pretty good way to describe the situation at Fox right now, following their surprise termination of their marquee star, Tucker Carlson.

On Fridays, of course, we do schadenfreude of the week. It's probably a good thing we don't do schadenfreude of the year, because the award for 2023 would be already sewn up. Tuckkker (auto-correct seems to insist on that spelling, for some reason) is a terrible human being, regardless of your underlying politics. He spent the majority of his time on the air telling viewers whom to fear and/or hate, usually targeting various minority groups, including Black people, Jews, and trans folks. As he made his "case" for his agenda, the now-former Foxer used all sorts of dishonest persuasion techniques, including misrepresenting or outright inventing factual information. And like Rush Limbaugh, for whom Carlson served as spiritual heir, he didn't even believe most of the crap he was peddling, as revealed in the text messages made public courtesy of Dominion.

So, why was Carlson fired? That's the question everyone wants an answer to, even though a full and honest answer may never come. We've pondered the situation all day long, and decided we are going to present 10 theories. Note that by all indications, Carlson was caught by surprise, and did not instigate this in any way (in fact, when he found out, he was deep in preparations for the Monday edition of his bile). So, our list is going to focus only on motivations from the Fox side.

Also note that it is entirely possible, and even likely, that more than one theory is correct. And with that said:

1. Dominion Insisted: A popular theory that made the rounds yesterday was that, as part of the settlement agreement signed last week, Dominion Voting Systems insisted that Carlson be fired. Interesting theory, but we doubt it. First of all, if it's not in writing, it's not enforceable. Second, there were numerous reports that Lachlan Murdoch made the decision to fire Carlson on Friday night, after much thought. We are inclined to believe those reports are true, and if so, that's incongruous with it being part of the Dominion settlement. If it was part of the settlement, there would be no need for thought, and no need for a decision.
   
   
2. The Fall Guy, Part I: Keeping in mind that Fox (apparently) already tried to make Maria Bartiromo a scapegoat for the Dominion mess, it's entirely possible that Carlson now gets to be the "cancer" that was responsible for what happened. Fox might well have decided that "we got rid of Carlson" could be a useful point in its defense in future lawsuits, like the one from Smartmatic.
   
   
3. The Fall Guy, Part II: Alternatively, Fox might be worried that, despite the network's best efforts to bury the story, its viewers have learned about the Dominion settlement. This could allow them (or their friendly supporters in the media) to circulate the story that Carlson was to blame for everything, that he's been shown the door, and that Fox's loyal viewers can go back to trusting the network they know and love.
   
   
4. The Fall Guy, Part III: It could also be that Fox is less worried about blaming someone for the election lies, and more worried about blaming someone for ongoing sexual harassment issues, which seem to happen a lot at that network, for some reason. There are already at least two pending suits against Carlson and his staff, and it could be those that Fox is trying to get out in front of.
   
   
5. Unknown Legal Issues: Finally, before we leave the legal theories behind, we will note that there could be one or more shoes that have not dropped yet, and that Fox could be aware of some sort of pending legal action or scandal involving Carlson that is not yet widely known. It could be that X-factor that the network is trying to get out in front of.
   
   
6. Cord Cutting: It's not a great time for people in the cable business, as more and more Americans are chucking their cable service entirely and going to various à la carte options. Fox just paid out a big chunk of change, it's probably going to pay out one or more additional big chunks, and it might not be as profitable down the road as its older viewers die off while younger viewers skip cable entirely. The network will have to pay Carlson's $20 million salary for a couple more years as he has a contract, but if they can replace him with a $6 million man (We can rebuild him. We have the technology.), then long-term they will realize big-time cost savings. The termination of Don Lemon at CNN (see below) and of Dan Bongino over the weekend at Fox may speak to the same basic concern.
   
   
7. It's a Business Decision: Similarly, the problem might not be Carlson's salary, per se, but the value of his program. It is consistently #1 in its time slot, but the ad inventory is apparently somewhat difficult to sell. Because Tucker is pretty toxic, most brands don't want to have anything to do with him, and Fox can only sell so many ads to the MyPillow guy, WeatherTec and Balance of Nature.
   
   
8. You're Not the Boss of Me: Thanks to Dominion, Fox hosts are about to enter a brave new world in which their coverage is subjected to careful review by attorneys. It would be entirely in character for Carlson to make clear that he is above such things, and he has no interest in adjusting his show based on what a bunch of lawyers say.
   
   
9. The King Is Dead, Long Live the King: There was a time, not too many months ago, where the folks at Fox foresaw a hopeful new future in which Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) could be their man of the hour, and Donald Trump could be a distant memory. It was during that time that Carlson apparently said some none-too-flattering things about Trump.
   
   These days, reality has set in. DeSantis is sinking, and it is likely Trump will be the Republican candidate for president next year. He could also win the election. That means that Fox hosts will need to do between 2 and 6 more years of sucking up to The Donald. It will not be easy to do that if the network's star entertainer is a known Trump hater.
   
   
10. He's Just an A**hole: Sometimes, the larger plan is as simple as "We are tired of this jerk, and don't want to be around him anymore." Carlson famously got way too big for his britches, and developed a reputation for treating everyone badly, including badmouthing the muckety-mucks at Fox. Carlson's producer, who also got fired yesterday, developed the same reputation. So, the firing could have been personal.

Again, we don't know more than anyone else in the general public knows. But there is no way that the firing was completely unrelated to the Dominion case, so that has to be part of the solution to the mystery. At the same time, we suspect the Dominion settlement was a final straw, and this has been building for a while. If you insisted on us putting the pieces together, we would speculate that the Murdochs got tired of Carlson's salary and his bad behavior around the office, and that after the Dominion settlement, they had an opportunity to get rid of him while also creating a scapegoat for the whole mess and sending a message to every other Fox employee that a new era has arrived and nobody is safe if they don't keep their noses clean. Any one of these things might not have been enough to cause the network to push its biggest star out the door, but in aggregate, well, "Bye, Tucker!"

So, what is next for Fox? They are going to rotate hosts through the 8:00 p.m. slot until deciding on a permanent replacement for Carlson. In other words, though Fox isn't using this exact word, there are going to be a bunch of folks auditioning for Carlson's old job. If you asked us to guess who will be in that chair when the dust settles, we'd probably go with Greg Gutfeld. He seems to be able to deliver the ratings without nearly as much of the bile, and he's also a white guy, which we assume is a prerequisite for that slot on that network. Whoever succeeds Carlson will surely become a right-wing superstar; it's the network that's key, not the talent. After all, Bill O'Reilly was just as successful in that slot until he got canned.

And what is next for Carlson? We haven't seen his contract, of course, so we don't know what kind of noncompete verbiage he has, if any. He's not likely to show up on any other cable news network, even after his contract expires, as OAN/Newsmax/News Nation are too small potatoes, while CNN and MSNBC are too lefty (and, also, have both fired Carlson). Truth is, he's a prime candidate to start a podcast, either on his own or with one of the existing podcast networks, with him retaining partial ownership.

There's also been much talk, in the past, of Carlson going into politics. Certainly possible, as he lives in an era where experience is no longer required if one wants to be elected to high office, and he's a member of a party that is outright disdainful of experience and expertise. Still, the House of Representatives is surely "beneath" him and, as a resident of Florida, he's blocked for a long time from a U.S. Senate seat or from the governor's mansion. There's probably not a lane for him for a 2024 presidential run, and he's not going to be Trump's VP, since Trump does not forget the sort of insults Carlson lobbed his way. DeSantis/Carlson 2024, assuming Carlson establishes residence in some other state? Maybe, but we are increasingly doubtful that a flailing-in-the-polls DeSantis will take his shot this year. And if he doesn't, then there's no VP slot available to offer to Tucker.

There must have been something in the air yesterday, because Carlson wasn't the only high-profile a**hole to get booted out of his high-profile job; Aaron Rodgers was finally traded from the Packers, who have won a championship in this millennium, to the Jets, who haven't. And in addition, well, keep reading... (Z)

Sour Lemon

As we note above, Tucker Carlson wasn't the only high-profile cable TV personality to lose his job yesterday. Within an hour (and maybe within a half an hour) of the news of Carlson's demise, CNN announced that it was letting Don Lemon go after 17 years with the network.

Lemon was apparently blindsided by the news, and he responded by posting a rather strange screed to Twitter. It wasn't the angry verbiage that was strange, though, it was the enormous font and purple lettering, making it seem as if Lemon doesn't really understand how to use Word (or NotePad or TextEdit or whatever he was using).

It's a shame that Lemon lost his job now, of all times. Our guess is that if CNN had just given him another month, he might finally have said something useful or interesting. In other words, if you can't tell, we're not fans. And we're actually surprised, given how little Lemon seems to bring to the table, that he survived this long. After all, he was regularly enmeshed in controversy, from his buddy-buddy relationship with the unethical sleazeball Chris Cuomo to his recent tacky remarks about Nikki Haley, and how a woman in her (early) fifties is past her prime. Lemon has also been the subject of numerous rumors about backstage sexism (stretching back 15+ years or, in effect, his entire CNN tenure), and he's also raised eyebrows with some of his problematic interview questions, most notably of the women who accused Bill Cosby of rape.

We have rather less to say about Lemon than we did about Carlson because, of course, Lemon is far less influential than Carlson. So, his firing is far less consequential. That said, we will note that it just can't be a coincidence that the two terminations became public within an hour of each other. The popular theory is that Lemon found out, at some point in the past week, that the end was near, and that when Carlson was canned, Lemon rushed to Twitter to tell about his own firing before Tucker could suck up all the oxygen. Maybe, but that seems convoluted to us. Our guess is that CNN has already gotten a lot of the wrong kind of coverage with all its staff turnover in the last year or so, and that the network bigwigs were hoping to bury this particular story as much as possible, and so pulled the trigger (perhaps a few days earlier than planned) so as to take advantage of the shadow cast by Carlson.

Whatever the behind-the-scenes dynamics are, the deed is done, and Lemon is out. Who knows what's next for him; maybe he'll join Cuomo at News Nation, and they can both be watched by nobody. As to CNN, we foresee the hiring or promotion of another milquetoast figure, albeit one clever enough not to stick their foot in their mouth every other month or so. (Z)

Biden Reportedly Has His Campaign Chair

Assuming he sticks with the schedule that was strongly hinted at last week, Joe Biden will make it official today that he's running for president in 2024. He's changed his timeline for this before, however, so we'll see if he actually takes the plunge or if the holding pattern continues for a few more days (or weeks).

Whenever he announces, however, it would seem he's decided on a campaign chair. It is Julie Chávez Rodriguez, who is currently senior advisor and assistant to the president and director of the White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs. Previously, she served as deputy manager of the Biden-Harris campaign in 2020, as state political director for Kamala Harris, in various roles in the Barack Obama administration, and as a community organizer and AFL-CIO staffer.

The selection is something of a masterstroke. One of the criticisms that is leveled at the Democratic Party all the time is that it doesn't do enough to connect with Latino voters. We find it rather difficult to believe that it just hasn't occurred to the blue team to do Latino outreach, so we're never sure exactly what this criticism means, or how it can be addressed. But whatever is going on, picking a Latina campaign manager with a background in community organizing should be pretty helpful.

And on top of that, Biden didn't just pick any Latina with a background in community organizing. He picked a Chávez. Rodriguez is the granddaughter of César, which makes her left-wing royalty. He remains an icon with both Mexican Americans and with labor unionists. Having his granddaughter running a presidential campaign, the first Latino/a ever to do so, should impress both groups. And Biden might just be aware of certain states that are swingy, and that have a large population of Latino trade unionists. Wonder what state might fit that description.

As several more polls released over the weekend indicate, few Democrats are excited about Biden 2024. Undoubtedly, the President would prefer to be beloved, like a Franklin D. Roosevelt or a Ronald Reagan. But that is very rare while someone is actually in the White House, and Biden knows that all you really need is for people to be just enthusiastic enough to show up and vote. A "meh" voter's vote is worth exactly as much as a "thrilled" voter's vote. And Biden continues to make savvy political decisions that are going to help him get the tens of millions of "meh" votes he needs. (Z)

The Election Cycle Is Underway

Of course it is underway, you might be thinking. After all, the previous item is about Joe Biden's campaign manager, and likely campaign announcement. 2024 is in full swing!

Silly reader, we were not referring to 2024. No, we meant 2025. There's no presidential race in '25, but two governor's mansions are up, namely New Jersey and Virginia. And the former seat will be vacant, as Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is term-limited. So, the race is already underway. Mayor Steve Fulop (D) has been running Jersey City for 10 years, apparently with some success. Before that, he was a U.S. Marine. Fulop thinks, with good reason, that his résumé sounds like the résumé of a candidate for high political office, so he has announced a bid for Murphy's job. Fulop nearly ran in 2017, before pulling out at the last minute and endorsing Murphy, so one suspects he'll have the Governor's backing in 2025.

The other side of the aisle in the Garden State also has its first contender, apparently. It's former state representative Jack Ciattarelli. Ciattarelli ran for governor in 2021 and lost, and in the same speech where he conceded to Murphy, he also announced his 2025 bid. The candidate has done nothing to back off that promise since then, so presumably his hat is still in the ring. The first poll of the race reveals that he has the broadest name recognition among Republican candidates, with 76% of Republicans saying they know who Ciattarelli is. That said, you might want to take that 76% with a little bit of salt, since Paula Hawkins was at 13% recognition and Vance Kassebaum was at 10%. Even readers who live in New Jersey and are very dialed in may be wondering who Hawkins and Kassebaum are. If so, then you're right on point. Hawkins and Kassebaum don't exist; they were inserted as controls to see how many people just claim to recognize every candidate for fear of looking ill-informed.

Meanwhile, if 2025 is just a little too close in time for your tastes, perhaps we can interest you in some 2026 campaign cycle news? A whole bunch of governorships will be up then, including the biggest of them all, namely California, where Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) will be term-limited. The Republicans will eventually find some rich person who can self-fund, and who wants to run as a vanity project. The Democratic side of the contest, on the other hand, will be brutal. The bench is deep in the Golden State, and with the two U.S. Senate seats very possibly locked up for a generation by then, every upwardly mobile Democrat in the state is going to take a long look at the possibility of replacing Newsom.

Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D) is well aware of this, and decided it's far better to be too early to the party than too late. And so, she officially declared her candidacy yesterday. Being official puts a target on her back and also causes California campaign finance laws to kick in. However, it also means that from now until Election Day, she has the cachet of being "gubernatorial candidate Eleni Kounalakis," which is of much greater interest to most people and media outlets than "Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis." Plus, she's been able to lock down a lot of the best strategic and fundraising talent.

The last person to serve as lieutenant governor of California, and then to declare a gubernatorial run well more than 3 years before the actual election, was... Gavin Newsom. So, this playbook seems to work fairly well. Other aspirants to Newsom's throne will now be under some amount of pressure to jump in, though the most serious competitor for Kounalakis might well be the loser of the Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA)/Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) Senate race. And, of course, that loser can't exactly declare a gubernatorial run until their Senate run is dead and buried, which might very well not happen until November of next year. And what kind of political piker, these days, declares with a mere 2 years left until the election? (Z)

Montana Republicans Back Down

As we noted several times, Republicans in the Montana state legislature toyed around with changing the laws governing U.S. Senate races so that, in effect, there would be no Libertarian candidate on the general election ballot. This was a transparent attempt to make it harder for Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) to win reelection next year.

The Republicans' problem was that this was definitely one of those "better to ask forgiveness than permission" situations. They were hoping to sneak the change in under everyone's nose, with the notion that once it became clear what had happened (something that might not have happened until after next year's primaries), it would be too late to do anything about it and too late for anyone to complain. Unfortunately, as is so often the case with the best laid plans of mice and men, the press got wind of it and shone a very unpleasant life on the whole scheme.

Thanks to all the coverage, Montana voters began calling their representatives to express outrage over the proposal. Our understanding is that feelings were so heated, they used both of the state's telephones for this purpose. As a result, the committee that was considering the proposal voted to table it, with all of the Democrats and all but one of the Republicans supporting the move. It is theoretically possible the legislation could come back to life at some point, but unlikely, given how toxic it has apparently become.

Meanwhile, as long as we're at it, is it really certain that the Big Bopper died in that plane crash in 1959?

Are we sure that story wasn't cover so that J.P. Richards could move to Montana and begin to plant the seeds for a political career under a new name? Inquiring minds demand answers. (Z)

Musk's Checks Bounce

Or, perhaps the operative movement here is "thud," rather than "bounce." On a day that's already got an awful lot of schadenfreude, we give you even more in the form of Twitter CEO Elon Musk, who continues to demonstrate that when it comes to running social media platforms, he's a pretty good auto executive.

Recall that, for many years, Twitter bestowed blue checkmarks next to the username of "verified" high-profile users. This made it much easier to determine if a message was from the actual pope, or the actual President Biden, or the actual LeBron James. Not too long ago, in an effort to recoup some of the billions he overpaid for the site, Musk announced that the check marks, instead of being evidence of some level of vetting, would be a perk that came with an $8/month Twitter Blue membership. This meant that, virtually overnight, Tom Cruise [checkmark] would go from meaning "This is Tom Cruise's real account" to "This account belongs to someone who wants to present themselves to the world as Tom Cruise, and is willing to pay eight bucks for the privilege."

Exactly how Musk thought this was going to work out, nobody seems to know. But the "overnight" arrived this weekend, and checkmark-ageddon was a disaster. Excepting Musk's adoring fans, virtually nobody wants to pay for the check marks. Not because of the $8, but because they make a user look kinda pathetic and desperate for validation. Prominent celebrities rebelled in droves, and said they wouldn't pay under any circumstances.

Pretty quickly, Musk figured out that it was a very bad look if Musk fanboys had check marks but nobody else did. It was strange that you could trust that @Joe_TeslaLover was really Joe TeslaLover, but that you couldn't be sure that @Joe_Biden was really Joe Bidem. So, the billionaire's initial move was to restore, free of charge, checkmarks to high-profile users who had complained about the situation, among them James, Stephen King and William Shatner. This caused that trio to complain even more, and to send out multiple tweets warning their fans that they had nothing to do with the checkmarks, and that only a loser would pay for validation like that.

This was a pretty bad look, too, so Musk ultimately made the decision to restore checkmarks to any user who has at least 1 million followers. This means that many, real, live active journalists and entrepreneurs and athletes and artists and others (say, Dan Rather, Travis Kelce, Jonathan Frakes or Katie Porter) do not have blue checkmarks, but Kobe Bryant, David Bowie, Chadwick Boseman, Anthony Bourdain and Jamal Khashoggi all do. This implies that the latter group is paying their $8 month, but this is rather unlikely since all of them are, you know, dead. Meanwhile, some of the living people who were granted checkmarks for free are threatening to sue because they don't want what is effectively a "loser" badge.

Who knows where this is headed, though it's certainly interesting to watch, ideally with some popcorn in hand, while Musk runs his toy into the ground. (Z)

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