Today's the Day

Sometime today, Donald Trump will become the first-ever U.S. president to be charged with a felony. And, right around that time, we will also find out exactly what his alleged crimes are. So, it's a pretty big day.

There are all kinds of storylines swirling around right now; it's most readable if we just do a rundown, rather than trying to mash them together. So:

• The Cat's Out of the Bag?: Yahoo! (of all outlets) broke the news yesterday that the indictment contains 34 counts, they're all Class E felonies, and they all involve falsification of business records.
  
  Assuming this is correct, there are a couple of useful things to know. First, a Class E felony is the least serious type of felony in New York. Such felonies can result in a jail sentence of up to 4 years, though it is not common for first-time defendants to actually be sent to the clink. Although if a person gets popped for 34 such felonies, it certainly could change the normal operating procedure.
  
  The second thing to know is that falsification of business records can also be charged as a misdemeanor. If DA Alvin Bragg is charging felonies, that implies that an underlying crime took place. Presumably that crime would be election fraud. As we have noted, federal election fraud is a crime that Bragg, who is not a federal officeholder, probably cannot prosecute. However, if he proves the fraud in order to make his overall case, that would certainly set the pins up for the feds to knock down, should they want to pursue it.
  
  
• A Media Frenzy Yesterday....: Yesterday, Trump got in his limousine and went to the airport. Then, he got in his plane and flew to New York. Then, he got in a different limousine and went to Trump Tower. So, he's definitely planning to show up in court today, and not to dare Alvin Bragg to come get him. Undoubtedly, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is relieved.
  
  The Trump indictment is big news, and so many news outlets covered each step of the journey, second-by-second. It was not unlike the O.J. Simpson car chase. Several Fox personalities, most notably Greg Gutfeld, slammed the media for their "obsessive" coverage of the trip. Of course, one of the outlets that had wall-to-wall coverage was... Fox. Guess Gutfeld doesn't watch the channel, either; who knew we had something in common with him?
  
  
• ...But Don't Go Looking for Arraignment Footage Today: Undoubtedly, if "Trump rides in limousine" is worthy of multiple hours of coverage, then the media is going to go absolutely nuts today. The only problem is that, beyond crowd shots, they may not have much to film. Trump's lawyers have already secured numerous concessions: no cameras in the courtroom, no handcuffs and no public release of his mug shots. This would seem to support our supposition that Trump is much more concerned about maintaining his public image than he is about coming up with some footage that might be used to goose fundraising. The only thing that will be allowed today, when it comes to the courtroom, is a few photographs. And during the trial, there will be no video, either. Under New York law, a judge can allow cameras for some portions of the process, at their discretion, but not while testimony is being given.
  
  
• Lawyering Up: Rolling Stone reported yesterday that the people in Donald Trump's inner circle think that lawyer Joe Tacopina is "dumb" and "a loudmouth." That is our assessment, too.
  
  Trump, of course, has an affinity for dumb loudmouths, for... some reason. So, Tacopina will undoubtedly continue as the former president's TV lawyer, going onto Fox and other channels to bloviate about things. But even Trump isn't willing to place his fate in the hands of another Michael Cohen-Rudy Giuliani type. And so yesterday, he retained Todd Blanche, a former federal prosecutor and, until recently, a partner at a white-shoe law firm, to be his actual lawyer. Blanche's former firm is Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft, which really sounds more like it belongs in a Dickens novel. Perhaps that makes sense, since they've been in business since 1792. In any case, the firm did not want its reputation sullied by association with Trump, so they insisted that Blanche resign in order to represent the former president. And Blanche did. The size of his retainer has not been leaked yet, but our guess is that it's at least six Stormy Danielses.
  
  
• America Approves...: ABC/Ipsos have run a poll asking Americans if they approve of the Trump indictment; 45% said "yes" and 32% said "no." CNN/SSRS also ran a poll, and asked the same question; in this case, 60% said "yes" and 40% said "no." The primary difference between the two sets of results is that the former poll allowed respondents to say "I don't know" (23%) and the latter did not.
  
  It should be noted that all of these people are approving of the indictments without actually know what's in them yet. Clearly, their responses are rooted in their disdain for Trump. He could be indicted for littering, jaywalking or crimes against fashion, and presumably 45%-60% of Americans would approve. That said, forcing people to take a position directed many more of them into the pro-indictment camp than the anti-indictment camp. So, once the indictments are unsealed, and people have an actual basis for an opinion, the numbers figure to look more like the ones from CNN and less like the ones from ABC.
  
  
• ...But What Does Randy Rainbow Think? If there is anyone who knows that you have to strike while the iron is hot, it's parodist and comedian Randy Rainbow. He's already produced a song parody inspired by the Trump indictment, and sung to the tune of "Boogie Woogie Bugle Boy" by the Andrews Sisters. As you might guess, Rainbow plays all three sisters in the video. Many, many readers sent it to us; if it holds your interest:
  
  
  
  There are more songs coming up later in this posting, but we can assure you, it's all downhill from here musically.

Trump's current plan, once he has taken care of business in New York, is to hightail it back to Mar-a-Lago and to make a speech. Undoubtedly, the phrase "witch hunt" is set to feature prominently. However, it is well within the realm of possibility that Judge Juan Merchan will impose a gag order, which would definitely complicate the speech. If the Judge does do that, it will be very interesting to see if Trump has the discipline to cancel his planned remarks. And if Trump doesn't cancel, it will be absolutely riveting to see him try to whip the base up into a frenzy without getting himself busted for contempt of court. That would definitely be popcorn time. (Z)

The End Days May Soon Be Upon Us

There's a pretty good argument to be made that the worst hit song ever recorded is "They're Coming to Take Me Away, Ha-Haaa!," by Napoleon XIV. What the million-plus people who bought that single in 1966 were thinking, we do not know, but it was the #3 song in the U.S. and the #2 song in Canada for a week. Maybe it was the LSD. Or some tainted poutine. If you don't know the song, you might want to avoid clicking on that link, because it could get stuck in your head and cause you to go insane. Which would actually be kind of apropos, because going insane is what happens to the singer of the song... after his dog runs away.

Anyhow, Napoleon XIV died a few weeks ago. It would seem that, as a result, the universe decided that meant it is time for an even worse hit song to displace "They're Coming to Take Me Away, Ha-Haaa!" And so, the world has now been blessed (cursed?) with what became, over the weekend, the #1 song on iTunes, namely "Justice for All" by the J6 Prison Choir, with special guest Donald J. Trump.

If you are a real glutton for punishment, and you haven't already been reduced to a quivering, wasted piece of jelly by Napoleon XIV, you can listen to "Justice for All" here. The J6 Prison Choir, as you might guess from their name, is made up of men who were imprisoned for their role in the 1/6 insurrection. The track involves them singing the National Anthem, interspersed with Trump reciting the Pledge of Allegiance. And then, at the end, the "Choir" chants "USA! USA! USA!" Do you understand how much dedication to this site it takes for us to listen to this awful, awful "music"?

That said, our purpose here isn't merely to dump on this track. It's to point out that newly announced Republican presidential candidate Asa Hutchinson also has a low opinion of the song. In his case, that's not a musical judgment, it's a judgment about the message. Appearing on News Nation, Hutchinson accused Trump of undermining the American system of justice and said "I don't think we should elevate Jan. 6. It was a serious challenge to our democracy. It was a blight against the United States, against the world." The former governor of Arkansas also slammed the current governor of Florida, remarking that Ron DeSantis' potshots at Alvin Bragg (smearing the DA as a tool of George Soros and a "menace to society") were "appealing to the worst instincts of America, versus trying to sort through a difficult time in our country." Hutchinson also said that, as a former prosecutor himself, he would have brought a case against Trump in Manhattan, based on what is currently publicly known.

We do not know if there is actually a "sane Republican" lane in 2024. But if there is, the person in it cannot be a former Trump toady (sorry, Chris Christie!), and they really have to lean into the notion of a post-Trumper Republican Party. This business of trying to have it both ways, as someone like Mike Pence is trying to do, won't cut it. And that is why we will be watching Hutchinson with much more interest that any of the Trump-lite pretenders to the throne, with the exception of DeSantis. (Z)

The Pence Campaign Has Solved the Puzzle

And speaking of Mike Pence, his support for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination continues to be anemic. In poll after poll, he sits in the single digits, usually between 5% and 7%. That is, when the pollsters bother to ask about him at all.

Anyhow, Team Pence has taken a close look at the situation, and has figured out what ails the former VP's campaign. The problem is... wait for it... Nikki Haley. That's right. Pence and his campaign staffers have decided that the media's coverage of Haley is too fawning, and that she gets lots of ink and pixels when she has a good day, and not enough ink and pixels when she has a bad day.

There's actually something of a history of tensions between Pence and Haley. Yes, sometimes they say nice things about each other. But when they were both members of the Trump administration, each poached members of the other's staff. They were also in competition for the former president's attention and affections. Further, when it became clear that Trump was unhappy with Pence, rumors swirled that he might pick Haley as his running mate in 2020. Haley did little to dispel those rumors, which infuriated the Pence camp. We would also be remiss if we did not point out that Haley is a woman, and Pence has some less-than-admirable ideas about women, in general.

Tensions notwithstanding, the Pence campaign's theory of what's gone wrong is all kinds of stupid. Even if he somehow absorbed all of Haley's support, he'd still trail Trump and Ron DeSantis by double digits. Pence is running a campaign aimed at the base, which means he's willfully disregarding the fact that the base hates him. That isn't going to change, no matter what he does, and no matter what kind of coverage Haley gets. If he wanted to make standing up for the Constitution on 1/6 the centerpiece of his message, and to pitch himself as the guy who can lead a new, improved, and non-criminal Republican revolution, we could see that. It probably still wouldn't work, because Pence isn't especially popular outside the Trump faction. But at least it would be operating within the realm of reality, as opposed to the delusional fantasy world that the former VP and his staff currently seems to be occupying.

A Pence staffer who spoke to Politico did share one insight that we would regard as useful. Speaking of Haley's campaign, he said that someone who is polling in the single digits is not a serious candidate. That's pretty on-point, we would say. Team Pence might want to read that sentence a few times and give it some careful consideration... (Z)

Senate Democrats Should Be Back at Full Strength Soon

For about a month now, the Democratic majority in the U.S. Senate has been down two votes, due to the mental health challenges faced by Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) and the physical health challenges faced by Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA). However, it looks like both absences will soon come to an end.

Fetterman, for his part, has been discharged from Walter Reed hospital, where he was being treated for depression. On his release, the Senator issued a statement thanking his medical team and declaring "I want everyone to know that depression is treatable, and treatment works." Yesterday, he sat for a teary interview with CBS in which he tried to explain what it was like to experience severe depression, while also lamenting that he missed his son Karl's birthday, which took place the same day as Fetterman checked into Walter Reed. Not too many politicians are willing to be that vulnerable, and we suspect that the Senator's honesty will inspire at least a few people to reach out for the help they need. Certainly, his conduct stands in sharp contrast to right-wing politicians and media figures who mocked him and/or questioned his fitness for office. So, good on him. Fetterman is currently taking some downtime in his hometown of Braddock, PA, but he expects to be back at work when the Senate reconvenes on the 14th of this month.

Meanwhile, Feinstein has also been discharged from the hospital where, in her case, she was being treated for shingles. She's keeping details close to the vest, as is of course her right, but she's about 4½ weeks into a disease whose course usually between 3 and 5 weeks. The Senator has also said she hopes to return to Washington sometime this month. That seems well within reason, and so by May 1, the blue team should be back to 51 votes, assuming we're still counting Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ).

Thus far, the absence of Fetterman and Feinstein hasn't mattered too much, since the Senate has been on break for much of the time they were gone, and since the relatively small amount of legislation (and other matters) that came before the Senate in the last month or so didn't really break along party lines. But, of course, the ugly, ugly fight over the debt ceiling and the budget are coming up. And so, those extra two votes might be returning just in the nick of time. (Z)

DeSantis Acolyte Thinks He's Able to Beat Kaine

You probably haven't heard of Scott Parkinson, since he's never held public office. He's a former congressional staffer, and an advisor to Ron DeSantis and a number of other Republicans. Nonetheless, we live in an age where inexperience is no barrier to running for high office. And so yesterday, Parkinson threw his hat into the ring for the Republican U.S. Senate nomination in Virginia. He is the first serious challenger, Republican or Democrat, to declare a run against Democratic senator Tim Kaine (although there are a couple of perennial candidates in the race already).

Parkinson's platform is a Trump-style economic program (more tax cuts, less regulation), coupled with a healthy dollop of culture wars stuff, focused in particular on education. Speaking to reporters after announcing his candidacy, Parkinson was uncertain exactly what his position on abortion is. Hmmmm. We suspect if he was running in deep red Alabama, rather than purple-blue Virginia, he would know very well what he thinks about abortion.

The Parkinson game plan makes some sense, since he's basically just running a repeat of Gov. Glenn Youngkin's (R-VA) campaign. And obviously, it worked for the Governor. That said, Republican politics figure to be much messier in 2024 than they were when Youngkin ran in 2021, since there's a GOP civil war brewing between DeSantis and Donald Trump. On top of that will be the endless questions about Trump's legal problems. There's also the fact that Youngkin ran against Terry McAuliffe, who was not especially dynamic or popular. By contrast, Kaine is very genial, has good approval ratings, and is 4-for-4 in statewide elections (one for lieutenant governor, one for governor and twice for senator). So, while we think that Parkinson has the right ideas, strategically, he's going to have his work cut out for him, and then some. (Z)

Finland, Finland, Finland... Finland Has It All

Finland already had mountains so lofty, and treetops so tall. And, as of today, the country also has membership in NATO. There will be a ceremony to make it official this afternoon (Finnish time); this follows the decisions by Hungary and Turkey last week to grant their support for the move.

This is obviously a sizable setback for Vladimir Putin and Russia. In terms of its national culture and its economy, Finland is much more aligned with the West than it is with Russia. However, the Finns are also next door to Russia, and at risk of being a target of Russian aggression. Consequently, the nation's general strategic posture, for decades, has been armed neutrality. That is to say, Finland has a rather significant military capacity, but has tried to avoid taking sides. Now, it's come down squarely on the side of the West, and it will presumably remain there.

That's a big PR loss for Putin, but it's also a big loss in terms of Russia's national security. Yesterday, there were five NATO nations (Norway, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania and Poland) sharing a border with Russia; the total length of those shared borders is 754 miles. As of today, there will be six such nations, and the border mileage will more than double, to 1,584 miles. That means that Russia, which has already moved to shore up its forces along the Finnish border, will be spread much more thinly. Further, at its closest point, Finland is just 520 miles from Moscow. There are other NATO nations that are closer (Latvia and Estonia), but none with anything approaching the Finns' military capacity.

The next question is whether Sweden will join the party. They have applied, and have been approved by all the NATO members, except for... Hungary and Turkey. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has promised that Sweden will be approved, and presumably he's in a position to know. While the Swedes don't have a border with Russia, they're not too far away (a couple hundred miles, at the closest point), and they are pretty wealthy and pretty well-armed, too. They are also in a position to supply NATO forces with a near-endless quantity of moderate-quality home furnishings.

As chance would have it, Finland just cashiered its prime minister, Sanna Marin, this week. However, that is not connected to the NATO maneuvering. Marin's been enmeshed in a scandal involving videos of her letting loose at various parties. Further, like nearly all world leaders, she's being blamed for the economic upheavals of the last few years. So, in the Finnish elections this weekend, Marin and her Social Democratic Party lost their position as the largest party in Parliament. It looks like the new PM will come from the right-wing National Coalition Party. And the leader of that party, Petteri Orpo, says he and his colleagues plan to stick with NATO.

That, then, is the news out of the north. We still await a ruling on whether Finland remains a poor second to Belgium when going abroad, however. (Z)

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