Two Kentucky Polls, Very Different Results     Permalink

We have two different polls today for the Kentucky Senate race between Rand Paul (R), the son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) and Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway (D). The Rasmussen poll puts Paul 15% ahead while the CNN/Opinion Research poll says it is an exact tie at 46% each. What's going on here? Is Rasmussen fudging the numbers? Hard to say but there is one major different between the polls. The Opinion Research poll is of registered voters and the Rasmussen poll is of likely voters. That could account for the huge difference in a year when Republicans are much more excited about voting than Democrats. Midterm elections are all about getting your own base to vote--not about winning over independents or people who support the other party, and many Democrats are dispirited with President Obama's refusal to stand up to the Republicans. They may show this by telling the pollsters that they support Conway (in the Opinion Research poll) but also tell Rasmussen that they probably won't vote this year. Of course, they could change their minds come November.

One could ask why Opinion Research polled registered voters instead of likely voters, but it is possible they didn't think they could come up with a good enough screen to figure out who would vote. As we get closer to the election, it is important that all pollsters try because midterm turnouts are much lower than presidential year turnouts, and the people who don't vote are disproportionately younger voters and minorities, all of whom are strongly Democratic. So it is at least possible that both polls are correct because they are samplying different populations.

Perry Narrowly Leads White for Texas Governor     Permalink

While we are not tracking all the polls for the gubernatorial races, occasionally there is a noteworthy one. In the race for governor of Texas, initially many observers had expected Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX), already the longest-serving governor in Texas history, to wipe out Houston mayor Bill White, but it is much closer than expected. A new poll from Hill Research, a Republican firm no less, puts Perry ahead 42% to 41%. Zogby has Perry ahead 44% to 41% and PPP says Perry leads 48% to 42%. Taken together, the conclusion is that Perry is slightly ahead but White still has a chance. For a Democrat to run this well in Texas in a Republican year is a bit surprising.

Obama Opposes Extending Bush Tax Cuts for the Wealthy     Permalink

Given all the polling showing disaster looming for the Democrats, they clearly are looking for a game changer. It is possible that Obama's speech in Cleveland yesterday is their chosen weapon. The Bush tax cuts enacted starting in 2001 will expire on Dec. 31, 2010 and Congress is wrestling with the question of whether to extend them or not. In his speech, Obama said he wanted to make the cuts permanent for indidivuals making $200,000 or less and couples making $250,000 or less. These cover 98% of the population. Republicans want to make all the cuts permanent. As a campaign issue, having the Republicans filibuster and kill a bill that keeps the lower rates for nearly everyone will provide endless fodder for the Democrats of the type: "We care about the middle class; Republicans care only about the rich." It would be an especially potent issue if majority leader Harry Reid actually forces the Republicans to stand on the floor of the Senate day and night reading the Bible, but so far he has shown little inclination to demand a good old-fashioned Jimmy-Stewart filibuster. But so close to an election when the vast majority of Americans strongly support the Democrats' position might be the moment to do so. If he did, it would put the Republicans in a real bind: risk losing the opportunity to gain control of the House by filibustering or antagonize a key constituency, the very wealthy. This is the kind of politics the Republicans excel it but the Democrats rarely even try.

Today's Polls     Permalink

New Senate Polls

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