Gubernatorial Races 2010

While many people are focused on the midterm congressional elections already, there are other elections in 2010 that may be even more important: governors races in 37 states in 2010. These 37 races are especially important this cycle because the House will be reapportioned after the 2010 census, which means that the gerrymanders will crawl out from under their logs and bask in the sun, as they always do once in a decade. In nearly all states, congressional districts are set by law, which means the state legislature gets to draw the district boundaries and then the governor gets to sign or veto the law. If the legislature and governor are from the same party, they can do pretty much do whatever they want to and can be expected to draw the boundaries to benefit their party. Of course, if a state has only one representative, like Alaska, there is not much they can do. But in a state like Florida, with 25 representatives now and more expected after 2010, there is enormous potential for mischief.

On the other hand, if the governor's mansion and state legislature are controlled by different parties, all bets are off. If the legislature comes up with a one-sided plan, the governor will veto it. This pretty much forces the legislature to limit its dreams. Typically, the result is a compromise that protects all the incumbents and maintains the status quo, unless the state gains or loses one or more representatives, in which case there is much horse trading about the new boundaries, but the result can't favor the majority party too much or the governor won't bite. With so many governorships up for grabs this cycle, a dozen or more House seats hang in the balance.

The 37 gubernatorial races break down as follows.

• 7 Incumbent Democrats running for reelection
• 6 Incumbent Republicans running for reelection
• 12 open seats currently held by a Democrat
• 12 open seats currently held by a Republican

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Competitive Gubernatorial Races in Alphabetical Order by State

Arizona

Incumbent	Challenge	Notes
Jan Brewer (R)	Terry Goddard (D)	Gov. Jan Brewer (R-AZ) got her job when term-limited Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ) took a job in the cabinet. Since she wasn't elected, she may be vulnerable. The Democratic candidate is Attorney General Terry Goddard. Since the most recent person to be elected governor was a Democrat in an otherwise somewhat Republican state, this race has to be considered a tossup at this point. However, Brewer is a big supporter of the controversial Arizona law requiring the police to check the papers of anyone they suspect of being an illegal immigrant, and that position, while probably unconstitutional, is quite popular in Arizona and may pull her over the finish line.

California

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Meg Whitman (R)	Jerry Brown (D)	Open seat (R). Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA) is term limited so the biggest prize of all in terms of possibilities to gerrymander House districts is up for grabs. The Democrats nominated former governor Jerry Brown (D) while the Republicans nominated former eBay CEO and billionaire Meg Whitman (R), who has already spent over $120 million of her own money on the race. Despite being a very blue state, California has had many Republican governors. Furthermore, Brown is an extremely erratic campaigner. He might even decide to go off to an ashram to meditate instead of campaigning this Fall. Whitman has a real shot at it, especially if she continues to outspend Brown 10 to 1 in this vast state.

Connecticut

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Tom Foley (R)	Dan Malloy (D)	Open seat (R). With Gov. Jody Rell's (R-CT) announced retirement, this has become a wide open race with the Democrats having a good chance to pick up the governor's mansion. After hotly contested primaries, the Republicans picked former ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley (R) and the Democrats picked former Stanford mayor Dan Malloy (D). Connecticut is a blue state and Malloy has run for and won public office before, so he is the favorite.

Florida

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Rick Scott (R)	Alex Sink (D)	Open seat (R). With Gov. Charlie Crist's decision to run for the seat of retired senator Mel Martinez (R), the governor's race was suddenly thrown wide open. Surprisingly, it settled down on both sides very fast, with Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) and Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink (D) becoming the overwhelming favorites to get their party's respective nominations. Then a funny thing happened on the way to McCollum's expected easy primary and general election victories. Billionaire Rick Scott, who ran a for-profit hospital company that was fined over $100 million for defrauding Medicare jumped in and bought the nomination. All of a sudden, Sink finds herself the favorite. Scott will no doubt outspend her 10 to 1 but he has a lot of baggage and everyone in Florida knows about it already.

Georgia

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Nathan Deal (R)	Roy Barnes (D)	Open seat (R). With Gov. Sonny Perdue (R-GA) term limited, former governor Roy Barnes (D) jumped into the race and won the primary. The Republican primary was indecisive, forcing a runoff between tea partier Karen Handel (R) and former representative Nathan Deal (R). Deal won it by a hair. The general election leans toward Deal in this red state.

Illinois

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Pat Quinn (D)	Bill Brady (R)	Gov. Pat Quinn (D-IL) became governor when his predecessor, Rod Blagojevich (D), was impeached and convicted. So far, Quinn doesn't appear touched by the state's boundless corruption, but when you weren't elected to your current office, you are always vulnerable. The Republicans don't have a stellar candidate here, with Bill Brady (R) eking out the narrowest of victories over his primary challengers. Still, Illinois is a fairly blue state and Quinn is somewhat better known than Brady, so the race leans towards Quinn. However, the Green Party candidate, Rich Whitney, could draw enough votes from from Quinn to have an impact.

Iowa

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Chet Culver (D)	Terry Brandstad (R)	Gov. Chet Culver (D-IA) is a moderate Democrat in a moderately Democratic state. However, his popularity is dropping and he is vulnerable. The Republican is former four-term governor Terry Branstad (R) looking for an encore. Since Branstad is a proven vote getter, albeit a decade ago, he will be a tough competitor.

Maine

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Libby Mitchell (D)	Paul LePage (R)	Open seat (D). Gov. John Baldacci (D-ME) is term limited, giving the Republicans a shot in this once strongly Republican state. The Democrats nominated state senate president Libby Mitchell (D) in a four-way primary. The Republicans chose the mayor of Waterville, Paul LePage (R). In addition to these two, three independents are also running. Initial polling puts LePage ahead of Mitchell, although the three independent candidates are pulling in about 15-20% of the vote. If any of them drop out later, it could shake things up.

Maryland

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Martin O'Malley (D)	Bob Ehrlich (R)	Gov. Martin O'Malley (D-MD) will be running for a second term in this very blue state. Early in his term he raised taxes, which lowered his approval ratings somewhat. Former one-term governor Bob Ehrlich (R) wants to get his old job back, so this will be a rematch of the 2006 election. O'Malley beat Ehrlich in 2006, but the wind is blowing a different way now. Likely to be close.

Michigan

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Virg Bernero (D)	Rick Snyder (R)	Open seat (D). Term-limited governor Jennifer Granholm (D-MI) is leaving, which is probably a good thing for the Democrats as she was not all that popular. Also, the economy of her state is a complete disaster, although it is not really her fault that General Motors has had little interest over the past 30 years in producing cars that people actually want to buy. Lt. Gov. John Cherry (D-MI) was next in line but decided not to run. The Democratic nominee ended up being Lansing mayor Virg Bernero (D). Rick Snyder (R) won a tough GOP primary. The race probably leans Republican because the voters are so angry about the economy and the Democrats are in charge now.

Minnesota

Challender	Challenger	Notes
Tom Emmer (R)	Mark Dayton (D)	Open seat (R). When some people started talking about Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) as a possible presidential nominee in 2012 he got bitten by the bug and decided not to run for a third term in 2010 to concentrate on his presidential run. Former senator Mark Dayton (D) decided to get back into politics and won the DFL (Democratic) primary. State representative Tom Emmer (R) won the Republican primary. The race is clouded by the presence of a third-party candidate, Tom Horner. It could be close.

New Mexico

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Diane Denish (D)	Susana Martinez (R)	Open seat (D). Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) is term limited. Lt. Gov Diane Denish (D-NM) is runing for the Democrats. What about the Republicans? Well, Obama carried the state in a landslide, the Democrats control both Senate seats, all three House seats, all statewide offices, and both chambers of the state legislature (by nearly 2 to 1 margins). The Republicans control nothing, so the best they could come up with is the Dona Ana County District Attorney, Susana Martinez. With both candidates female, New Mexico is sure to get its first woman governor. Martinez would be the first Latina, but the current governor is a Latino, so that is less of a breakthrough. It is likely to be a close race.

Ohio

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Ted Strickland (D)	John Kasich (R)	Gov. Ted Strickland (D-OH) crushed his Republican opponent, Ken Blackwell, in 2006 and has remained relatively popular since then. But with the Ohio economy in the toilet people need to blame someone and the governor is always on everyone's short list. Former representative John Kasich (R) is his opponent and since he is not in office now, he can claim he's not responsible for the economic mess. That might be enough for him to win.

Oregon

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
John Kitzhaber (D)	Chris Dudley (R)	Open seat (D). Term-limited Gov. Ted Kulongoski (D-OR) won't be on the ballot in 2010. The Democrats nominated John Kitzhaber, who already served two terms as governor, from 1995 to 2003. The Republican nominee is Chris Dudley, a former professional basketball player making his first run for public office. It should be an interesting race in an anti-incumbent year: a candidate who is the ultimate insider (although he is not responsible for the current mess) vs. the ultimate outsider. Kitzhaber will harp on the idea that being governor is a tough job and he knows how to do it whereas Dudley will attack Kitzhaber for being just another politician. At this point it is a tossup.

Pennsylvania

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Dan Onorato (D)	Tom Corbett (R)	Open seat (D). With two-term governor Ed Rendell (D-PA), retiring in 2010, the governor's mansion in a key swing state will be up for grabs. Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA) was running but dropped out leaving the nomination to Pennsylvania Attorney General Tom Corbett (R). The Democrat is Dan Onorato, the County Executive for the county containing Pittsburgh. Neither candidate is an incumbent and Pennsylvania has many more registered Democrats than registered Republicans on account of Hillary Clinton's refusal to drop out of the presidential race in 2008. It is the gift that keeps on giving. Although Pennsylvania is a blue state, Corbett is much better known than Onorato. Pennsylvania has been hit very hard by the tough economy and people then have a natural tendency to blame the folks currently in power, the Democrats, which gives Corbett the edge.

Rhode Island

Challenger	Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Frank Caprio (D)	John Robitaille (R)	Lincoln Chafee (I)	Open seat (R). Rhode Island is one of two New England states with a three-way race for governor. The incumbent, Gov. Don Carcieri (R), is term limited. Former senator Lincoln Chafee is trying to make a political comeback as governor. He will face off against the state Treasurer, Frank Caprio (D), and a Republican, John Robitaille, who has no chance. Chafee is still popular in the state and New England has had independent governors before, so he has a fair shot at winning.

Texas

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Rick Perry (R)	Bill White (D)	The fight to unseat Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX), the longest serving governor in Texas history, is going to be a humdinger. Perry first had to beat back a primary challenger, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson, which he did handily. Now he has to face off against the popular former mayor of Houston, Bill White (D). White is the first Democrat in years with a decent shot of being elected governor because the state's growing Latino population is highly Democratic and Perry has made a lot of enemies during his tenure.

Wisconsin

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Tom Barrett (D)	Scott Walker (R)	Open seat (D). Wisconsin law allows Gov. Jim Doyle (D-WI) to run for a third term but he has decided not to. Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett (D) is running to succeed him since the lieutenant governor, Barbara Lawton (D-WI) is not interested in the job. The Republicans had a primary in September between Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R) and former congressman Mark Neumann (R) and Walker won. The race leans slightly towards Walker, but should be close.

Vermont

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Brian Dubie (R)	Peter Shumlin (D)	Open seat (R). Vermont was one of the Republicans' few bright spots in New England. If four-term governor Jim Douglas (R-VT) had run for a fifth two-year term, he'd probably have won, but he is not running, so the Democrats have the edge now. There was a highly competitive four-way primary won by Peter Shumlin, who runs a small family-owned business. Only one Republican filed: Lt.Gov. Brian Dubie(R-VT). It could be close.

Likely Democratic States in Alphabetical Order

Arkansas

Incumbent	Challenge	Notes
Mike Beebe (D)	Jim Keet (R)	Gov. Mike Beebe (D-AR) is highly popular should coast easily to reelection over Jim Keet, a former state senator from Pulaski County (Little Rock) at the same time Blanche Lincoln is being wiped out by John Boozman.

Colorado

Challenger	Challenger	Challenger	Notes
John Hickenlooper (D)	Dan Maes (R)	Tom Tancredo (I)	Open seat (D). Gov. Bill Ritter (D-CO) decision not to run for second term, threw the Democratic nomination wide open but Denver mayor John Hickelooper jumped in and scared off all the Democratic competition. Former House member Scott McInnis (R) was the NRSC's choice, but he made some gaffes and was blown away by tea party favorite Dan Maes. Probably Hickenlooper could have beat him without any help, but when former representative Tom Tancredo jumped in as an independent, Maes doom was sealed. In fact, Tancredo has crushed Maes so badly, that he is emerging as the de facto Republican in the race. He will certainly outpoll Maes in November and even has an outside shot at winning the election.

Hawaii

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
James Aiona (R)	Neil Abercrombie (D)	Open seat (R). While it is hard for Republicans to win anything in Hawaii, term-limited Gov. Linda Lingle (R-HI) managed to pull it off twice. But she will be a tough act for another Republican to follow in this very blue state. Lt. Gov. James Aiona (R-HI) will try, but the odds favor the Democrats. Former Rep. Neil Abercrombie and Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannemann had a nasty primary which Abercrombie won easily. He should cruise to an easy victory in the general election.

Massachusetts

Incumbent	Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Deval Patrick (D)	Charlie Baker (R)	Tim Cahill (I)	Massachusetts is one of two New England states with a three-way race for governor. The incumbent, Gov. Deval Patrick (D-MA), will face off against the state Treasurer, Tim Cahill, who is running as an independent as well the Republican in the race, Charlie Baker. The dynamics of three-way races are hard to predict, with people voting or not voting for the spoiler, Cahill, depending on how sure their favorite candidate will win anyway.

New Hampshire

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
John Lynch (D)	John Stephen (R)	Gov. John Lynch (D-NH) wants a fourth 2-year term and there is nothing the Republicans can do do stop him. He won his last two elections in landslides and the state is bluer than ever. The Republican bench in New Hampshire is extremely thin and the GOP nomination went to a lawyer, John Stephen, who was the state's commissioner of Health and Human services, where he cut the welfare rolls by 20%. Lynch is the clear favorite here.

New York

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Andrew Cuomo (D)	Carl Paladino (R)	Politics is a blood sport in New York. This time will be no exception. Gov. David Paterson (D-NY) succeeded to the governor's mansion when Eliot Spitzer resigned after being ensnared in a prostitution sting. Then he got involved in his own scandal and decided not to run for election. Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) is running for his Dad's old job. He is immensely popular in the state and will win easily. There was a Republican primary and a relatively unknown tea party candidate, Carl Paladino, came out of nowhere to beat establishment favorite, Rep. Rick Lazio (R-NY). Paladino has a history of coontroversial, anti-semitic, and generally stupid remarks and wants to put welfare recipients in prison to learn hygiene. Emails he forwarded contained hard-core pornography although he claims he didn't originate them. Cuomo could win by 20, maybe 30 points.

Likely Republican States in Alphabetical Order

Alabama

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Robert Bentley (R)	Ron Sparks (D)	Open seat (R). Gov. Bob Riley (R-AL) is term limited but Alabama is fairly blue at the state level, with the Democrats controlling both houses of the state legislature. However, at the federal level, the Republicans dominate, so the gubernational race is likely to be very competitive. Rep. Artur Davis (D) and Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D) ran for the nomination and Sparks (who is white) beat Davis (who is black) by a huge margin. The Republican candidate, a state legislator and something of an outsider, beat the establishment candidate, Bradley Byrne, in a runoff.

Alaska

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Sean Parnell (R)	Ethan Berkowitz (D)	When former governor Sarah Palin quit her job, Sean Parnell (R-AK) became governor of Alaska. He won the Republican nomination quite easily and will face Alaska house minority leader Ethan Berkowitz (D) in the general election. Alaska is a fairly red state, so Parnell, who also has the advantage of incumbency, is favored.

Idaho

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Butch Otter (R)	Keith Allred (D)	Gov. Butch Otter (R-ID)is running for re-election and will win. There is nothing the Democratic candidate, activist Keith Allred (D), can do to prevent it. End of story.

Kansas

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Tom Holland (D)	Sam Brownback (R)	Open seat (D). Term-limited Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) accepted a job in the Cabinet rather than run for the open Kansas Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS), who is running for governor. The new governor is Mark Parkinson, currently a Democrat, but formerly a Republican. He is up for election in 2010, but has decided to retire. State senator Tom Holland is the Democratic nominee but this will be a very difficult race against Brownback, who is expected to win in a landslide.

Nebraska

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Dave Heineman (R)	Mike Meister (D)	Then Lt. Gov. Dave Heineman (R-NE) inherited his job when Gov. Mike Johanns became Secretary of Agriculture but Heineman ran on his own in 2006 and won convincingly. He is running in 2010 and will win convincingly again. The Democrats nominated Army veteran and lawyer Mike Meister but he has no chance at all.

Nevada

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Brian Sandoval (R)	Rory Reid (D)	Open seat (R). Gov. Jim Gibbons (R-NV) has been up to his ears in scandals since day 1, including a messy divorce in which the state's first lady refused to move out of the governor's mansion. Then there were shady land deals, a bribery investigation, illegal campaign donations, and more. Not surprisingly, he lost his primary. The Republican nominees is Brian Sandoval, a former federal judge. The Democrat is Rory Reid, son of the Senate majority leader Harry Reid. Anything goes in Nevada--except possibly dynasties. Sandoval is the favorite here.

Oklahoma

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Jari Askins (D)	Mary Fallin (R)	Open seat (D). Gov. Brad Henry (D-OK) is term limited so this will be an open seat in the reddest state in the country (McCain got 66% of the vote here, vs. a 65% in Wyoming and a mere 63% in Utah). In fact, Oklahoma is the only state in which McCain carried every county. Lt. Gov. Jari Askins (D-OK) won the Democratic primary and Rep. Mary Fallin (R-OK) won the Republican primary. Fallin is currently leading but, the situation is not entirely hopeless for the Democrats as they currently control every single statewide office.

South Carolina

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Nikki Haley (R)	Vincent Sheheen (D)	Open seat (R). Appalachian Trail hiking aficionado Gov. Mark Sanford (R-SC) is term limited and couldn't be elected dog catcher at this point anyway. South Carolina is where the South starts now that Virginia is trending blue and North Carolina has become a swing state (Obama carried both). As a consequence, the Republican nominee is practically a shoo in, so a vigorously contested primary occurred. The winner, in a runoff, was Nikki Haley, an Indian-American, who if she wins would be the nation's first female Indian-American politician to be elected governor. The Democrat is Vincent Sheheen, but he has little chance.

South Dakota

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Dennis Daugaard (R)	Scott Heidepriem (D)	Open seat (R). Were he not term limited, the popular governor, Mike Rounds, could easily win a third term, then a fourth one, and then a fifth one. Despite the Republican tilt of the state in presidential elections, one of the senators (Tim Johnson) and the only representative (Stephanie Herseth Sandlin) are Democrats. In fact, Herseth Sandlin may be interested in becoming governor some day, a job her grandfather once held. The Republican nominee is Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R-SD). The Democrat is state senator Scott Heidepriem (D). Daugaard is the clear favorite.

Tennessee

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Mike McWherter (D)	Bill Haslam (R)	Open seat (D). Tennessee is a bit of an anomaly: while dependably Republican in both federal and state elections, the departing two-term governor is Democrat Phil Bredesen. The Democratic nominee is the son of former governor Ned McWherter. The Republican is Bill Haslam (R), mayor of Knoxville. Despite McWherter's pedigree, Haslam is the favorite in this red state.

Utah

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Gary Herbert (R)	Peter Corroon (D)	When Barack Obama appointed former Utah governor Jon Huntsman (R) as ambassador to China, he got rid of a potential 2012 opponent but created a special gubernatorial election in Utah in 2010. The man who became governor in his place, Gary Herbert, is running and is the favorite. The Democrats enticed the mayor of Salt Lake County, Peter Corroon (D) to run, but he is longest of longshots.

Wyoming

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Leslie Petersen (D)	Matt Mead (R)	Open seat (D) . Wyoming is the Republican's #1 pickup opportunity as Gov. Dave Freudenthal (D-WY) is term limited and the Democrats had nobody to replace him. Eventually former state party chairwoman Leslie Petersen jumped in and got the nomination. Lots of Republicans were chomping at the bit, which led to a bitter and contentious primary, won by former U.S. Attorney Matt Mead by 714 votes. Mead is the overwhelming favorite in thie red state.