Senate Races 2010

While the 2010 election is still weeks away, one fact stands out right now: even though there are more Republican than Democratic retirements the Republicans are poised to pick up Senate seats. The only question is how many. But the presence of many tea party candidates definitely muddies the waters. While they did spectacularly well in Republican primaries by spewing fire and brimstone, now they have to make their cases to the full electorate and in many cases that will be much harder.

The most competitive races are shown first, in alphabetical order by state. Then come the safe Democratic seats and then the safe Republican seats.

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Competitive Senate Races in Alphabetical Order by State

California

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Barbara Boxer (D)	Carly Fiorina (R)	Barbara Boxer is a three-term incumbent and very popular in the state (she beat her opponent by 20 points in 2004). The Republicans had a nasty primary with Fiorina beating a moderate Republican and a tea party candidate. The mere fact that she can spend tens of millions of dollars of her own money makes her competitive, but her track record outsourcing jobs and getting fired for incompetence at Hewlett Packard will figure prominently in the race.

Colorado

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Michael Bennet (D)	Ken Buck (R)	Ken Salazar swam against the Republican tide in 2004, but since he has now been appointed to the cabinet, an appointee, Michael Bennet, will be running in 2010. Bennet has never held elective office before, so he has no experience campaigning. However, he had the good fortune that an insurgent tea party candidate, Ken Buck, beat the NRSC choice, former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton, in the primary. Buck is by far the weaker candidate in the general election, giving Bennet a chance of hanging onto his job.

Delaware

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Chris Coons (D)	Christine O'Donnell (R)	When Joe Biden became Vice President, Gov. Ruth Minner appointed a placeholder, Ted Kaufman, to keep the seat warm until Biden's son, Beau Biden, could come back from his tour of duty in Iraq and run. Unfortunately, when Biden came back he decided not to run, leaving the Democrats with a big problem. Eventually, Chris Coons, executive of the state's largest county jumped in the race. Sensing an opening, Mike Castle, the state's lone representative decided to run even though he is 70 and it takes 20 years to get enough seniority to have any real power. Still, all observers expected him to coast to an easy general-election victory but those plans got disrupted when tea party candidate Christine O'Donnell beat him handily in a primary. Now Coons is heavily favored.

Florida

Challenger	Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Marco Rubio (R)	Kendrick Meek (D)	Charlie Crist (I)	When Mel Martinez retired from the Senate earlier this year, Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL) appointed a placeholder, George LeMieux (R), to serve out Martinez' term and then retire in 2010. After some hesitation, Crist decided to run for the job. Initially he was the favorite. But when tea party favorite, Marco Rubio, former speaker of the Florida House took the lead in the primary polls, Crist dropped out and filed to run as an independent. Since everyone expected Crist to be the Republican nominee, no serious Democrat filed and when Rep. Kendrick Meek filed, it looked like he was the Democratic nominee. Then at the last minute, billionaire Jeff Greene filed, too, but Meek beat him decisively in a primary. Crist refuses to say who he will caucus with. Expect plenty of fireworks in this race.

Illinois

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Alexi Giannoulias (D)	Mark Kirk (R)	After a lot of feinting, the Senate decided to seat Roland Burris as Barack Obama's replacement. Burris failed to raise much money and was dogged by scandals, so he decided to call it quits in 2010. State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias won the Democratic primary and will face Rep. Mark Kirk (R) in the general election. Although Illinois is a blue state, Giannoulias' family owns a small bank that made loans to some sleazy characters and later failed. Being associated with a bank with questionable practices is not a good place to be right now. But Kirk has repeatedly lied about his record and been caught at it so both of them have a lot of baggage. The race is expected to be close.

Kentucky

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Rand Paul (R)	Jack Conway (D)	Jim Bunning is the only senator who is a member of the Baseball Hall of Fame. While he was a great pitcher, he was hardly a great senator. His age and lack of fundraising drove him from the 2010 race, so the Republican establishment picked a succesor, Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson. Only their plan was messed up by the son of Rep. Ron Paul, Rand Paul, who entered the race and thumped him in a primary. The Democrats also had a primary, which was won by state Attorney General Jack Conway. This is likely to be an unpredictable race with many twists and turns.

Missouri

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Roy Blunt (R)	Robin Carnahan (D)	Four-term senator Kit Bond (R) has decided to call it quits. He will be 77 at the end of another term and he's not interested, so we have an open seat in a key swing state. The other Missouri senator is a Democratic woman, Claire McCaskill. Robin Carnahan (D), the current Missouri Secretary of State and a member of a Missouri dynasty is running and is the favorite. Father Mel was governor. Mother Jean was senator. Brother Russ is a congressman. Needless to say, the Carnahan name is pretty well known in Missouri. A serious primary challenge seems unlikely. Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) is the almost certain Republican nominee at this point. He, too, has dynastic tendencies. His son, Matt Blunt, was governor from 2005 to 2009. Missouri is the Democrats' best chance for a pickup.

Nevada

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Harry Reid (D)	Sharron Angle (R)	The gentlemen's agreement between the parties to leave each other's leader alone is gone, and Harry Reid is high on the Republican's target list. Reid's popularity in the state is low, so the Republicans are doing their best to unseat him. After a bitter primary, tea party favorite Sharron Angle emerged the winner, largely helped by her opponents' blunders. But her support for storing radioactive wastes in Nevada, something Reid and most of the state's residents strongly oppose, is going to be a real problem for her in the general election. If Reid succeeds in painting Angle as a lunatic, enough people may hold their noses and vote for him and he could eke out a win.

New Hampshire

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Kelly Ayotte (R)	Paul Hodes (D)	Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) was going to become Secretary of Commerce and then he changed his mind. He abstained on the stimulus bill (which was de facto the same as voting for cloture) but took a lot of heat for it from NH Republicans. Then he withdrew and said he wouldn't run in 2010 either, creating an open seat. Rep. Paul Hodes (D-NH) is running and is unlikely to be challenged by any other Democrat. Republicans lucked out when Kelly Ayotte, the state's Attorney General said she would run. However, she was appointed to the AG job and this is her first actual run for public office. The GOP establishment quickly rallied around her. However, she was challenged from the right by Ovide Lamontagne, which led to a nasty ideological primary but Ayotte won. She is also the favorite in the general election.

North Carolina

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Richard Burr (R)	Elaine Marshall (D)	Richard Burr is a one-term senator in the famous cursed seat. It has flipped parties in each of the past five elections. To make it worse, in 2008 he watched in angst as his Republican colleague Elizabeth Dole went down to defeat at the hands of state senator Kay Hagan (D) at the same time as Beverly Perdue (D) was elected governor and Barack Obama won the state's electors. After a tough primary, North Carolina's Secretary of State, Elaine Marshall got the Democratic nomination. It could be a close race. Still, Burr is favored.

Ohio

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Rob Portman (R)	Lee Fisher (D)	Sen. George Voinovich is retiring after two terms in the Senate, creating an open seat in a swing state. This will one of the most bitterly fought races in 2010. Former congressman Rob Portman (R-OH) is the nominee for the Republicans. He was also director of the budget during the Bush administration, which will be a handicap as the Democrats will accuse him of causing the recession. On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher beat Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner for the Democratic nomination. Fisher is a poor campaigner but against a Bush retread the race should be competitive. But in the end, he ran such a poor campaign that he will probably lose badly.

Pennsylvania

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Joe Sestak (D)	Pat Toomey (R)	Arlen Specter's switch back to the Democrats took everyone by surprise. He was elected to the Senate five times as a Republican in a blue state. Since jumping ship, he voted with the Democratic leadership nearly 100% of the time. But that didn't fool the voters of Pennsylvania. In a hotly contested primary, they selected retired Rear Admiral Joe Sestak, a current member of the House looking for another promotion. The Republican, Pat Toomey, is very far to the right and no doubt Sestak will tout his long naval career and moderate position. It is too early to tell how this race will turn out.

West Virginia

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Joe Manchin (D)	John Raese (R)	The death of Sen. Robert Byrd on June 28 has generated a special election to be held in November to fill out the rest of Byrd's term, which ends in January 2013. Gov. Joe Manchin (D-WV) is the Democratic Candidate. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) was the only Republican with a chance to beat him but she decided not to run probably because she is planning to run for governor in 2012. Wealthy businessman John Raese volunteered to fill in the gap, but he is unlikely to win.

Wisconsin

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Russ Feingold (D)	Ron Johnson (R)	What's a twice-divorced Jew who supports gay marriage, universal health insurance, and gun control and who opposes the war in Iraq and the Patriot Act doing in Wisconsin? Answer: representing the state in the Senate since 1993. Feingold is one of the most liberal members of the Senate, but Wisconsin voters seem to like that. Under normal conditions, he should not have much troubled get reelected, but with the electorate in such a foul mood this year, he is going to get a real run from rich businessman Ron Johnson. Johnson made his fortune by building a company that makes specialty plastic packaging for medical products. He has no previous political experience. In a normal year, he would have no chance, but in a Republican wave year, he has a real shot at winning.

Safe Democrats in Alphabetical Order by State

Connecticut

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Richard Blumenthal (D)	Linda McMahon (R)	With Chris Dodd's retirement at the end of this year, the way has been opened for Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) to run for the seat. He was the odds-on favorite until he said he had served in Vietnam when he in fact had not. Former representative Rob Simmons (R) was going to run for the GOP nomination but then dropped out unexpectedly. Various others dropped out, too, until the last man standing was a woman, Linda McMahon, the former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment. While wrestler Jesse Ventura managed to get elected governor of Minnesota in 1998, even with Blumenthal's oral blunder, McMahon has to regarded as a deep underdog despite her willingness to spend $50 million of her own money to get elected. That could even backfire on her as Blumenthal will accuse her of trying to buy a Senate seat.

Hawaii

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Daniel Inouye (D)	Cam Cavasso (R)	Daniel Inouye will be 86 in 2010 but he is running for a ninth term. He will probably win easily since the only credible Republican in the state, Gov. Linda Lingle (R-HI) is not running. There was a primary, with state representative Campbell Cavasso (R) winning it. But he will lose the general election in a landslide.

Maryland

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Barbara Mikulski (D)	Eric Wargotz (R)	Barbara Mikulski is a four-term senator from a very blue state. In 2004 she got more votes than any candidate in the history of Maryland. She can stay in the Senate until she dies if she wants to. She loves her job as senator so the Republicans can't count on a retirement, either. There will be a Republican primary, but the favorite is Dr. Eric Wargotz, a Comissioner from Queen Anne's County. It is virtually inconceivable that he could beat the popular Mikulski.

New York-A

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Chuck Schumer (D)	Jay Townsend (R)	The Republicans will probably put up a symbolic candidate against Chuck Schumer (probably Fox commentaror Jay Townsend), but the only value in doing so is for the candidate to get some statewide exposure to run for some other office later. Remember, this is the guy who ran the DSCC for two cycles and knocked off 14 sitting Republicans. He did so primarily due to his ability to raise mountains of money for other people. If he could do that for a mayor in far-off Alaska, imagine what he can do for himself. Schumer is invincible.

New York-B

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)	Joseph DioGuardi (R)	Kirsten Gillibrand was appointed to the seat vacated by Hillary Clinton when she became Secretary of State. She has only one term of experience in the House, so she will be a target. However, in 2008 she got 68% of the vote in a somewhat (R+3) Republican district and she has a 100% rating from the NRA, so many Republicans clearly find her acceptable. She is also a prodigious fundraiser and has the complete backig of her mentor, the state's powerful senior senator, Chuck Schumer. The Republicans were hoping for Rudy Giuliani or George Pataki but neither was interested in the race. They eventually nominated former state representative, Joseph DioGuardi, who has virtually no chance against Gillibrand.

Oregon

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Ron Wyden (D)	Jim Huffman (R)	Ron Wyden is a popular Democratic senator from an increasingly blue state. It is doubtful that he can be unseated. He probably won't even be tested very hard. His Republican opponent is a law professor, Jim Huffman, who has never run for public office before. He might learn something about politics he can teach his students next year, but he is not going to be the next senator from Oregon.

Vermont

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Pat Leahy (D)	Len Britton (R)	Pat Leahy was first elected to the Senate when he was 34. He can stay there until he gets bored with the job and there is no evidence that boredom is about to set in. He won by 46 points in 2004 and will do as well in 2010. The only Republican who had even an outside chance of taking him down is Gov. Jim Douglas (R-VT), but Douglas declined to run. The only Republican who wanted to bother running was businessman Len Britton, but he has no chance at all of winning.

Washington

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Patty Murray (D)	Dino Rossi (R)	Patty Murray calls herself "a mom in tennis shoes" but she shouldn't be underestimated: she is the #4 Democrat in the Senate Democratic caucus. Dino Rossi, a former state senator and two-time losing gubernatorial candidate, mulled about jumping into this race for months before finally making the plunge. He is a wealthy businessman and could self fund the race. Normally rich businessmen have little chance of buying Senate seats, but since he already been elected to public office and twice ran a statewide campaign, he could be competitive. Still, Murray is well known and popular in the state and is the favorite.

Safe Republicans in Alphabetical Order by State

Alabama

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Richard Shelby (R)	William Barnes (D)	Richard Shelby was first elected to the Senate as a Democrat in 1984 by a whisker, but jumped ship and became a Republican in 1994 when the Republicans took over. While conservative on social issues, he is more moderate in economic issues, reflecting his Dixiecrat origins. He is also sitting on a huge pile of cash ($13 million) and won praise in his state for opposing the Wall St. bailout. He won reelection with 68% of the vote in 2004 and is likely to get that again. The Democrat is a Birmingham lawyer, William Barnes, but he has no chance.

Alaska

Challenger	Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Joe Miller (R)	Scott McAdams (D)	Lisa Murkowski (Write-in)	Lisa Murkowski was appointed to the Senate in 2002 by her father, the governor, who had just vacated the seat himself. There were many cries of nepotism at the time. In 2004 she won election on her own against Tony Knowles, 49% to 46%. This year she faced a primary against a totally unknown Fairbanks lawyer, Joe Miller. He got the support of Sarah Palin and won in a huge upset. In a two-way race between the unknown Miller and the unknown McAdams, Miller would have won easily due to the Republican tilt of the state. Then Murkowski gummed up the works by announcing she was running as a write-in candidate. At this point any one of the three of them could win.

Arkansas

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Blanche Lincoln (D)	John Boozman (R)	Arkansas is a very Democratic state--except for presidential elections. The governor and both senators are Democrats as are three of the four representatives and the Democrats control both houses of the state legislature. Nevertheless, Blanche Lincoln's popularity is way down and she barely beat back a primary challenge from Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D). On the Republican side, Rep. John Boozman (R-AR) is looking for a promotion to the Senate and has a good chance of getting it. Initial polls give him a huge lead.

Arizona

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
John McCain (R)	Rodney Glassman (D)	A bit out of the blue, John McCain had to pay more attention to what was until now an easy reelection campaign because he was challenged by conservative firebrand J.D. Hayworth. Hayworth forced him far to the right, but McCain won the primary easily. Now he faces an unknown Tucson city councilman, Rodney Glassman in November. McCain will win easily.

Georgia

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Johnny Isakson (R)	Mike Thurmond (D)	Although Johnny Isakson is only a one-term senator and was elected in the year George Bush was reelected, he is a very conservative senator, which matches the Georgia electorate well, so it is unlikely he can be unseated in 2010. The Democrats are running state Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond, but he is a longshot at best.

Idaho

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Mike Crapo (R)	Tom Sullivan (D)	Mike Crapo is a conservative senator who is a good match for his state. The Democrats didn't even bother running a candidate against him in 2004. This time they found a candidate in businessman Tom Sullivan, but he has no chance at all.

Indiana

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Brad Ellsworth (D)	Dan Coats (R)	Although Barack Obama carried Indiana, it is nevertheless a fairly red state. If Sen. Evan Bayh had decided to run again, he would have won easily, but he has had enough of how Washington works and decided to retire from politics. His departure completely completely shakes up the race and makes it a tossup. The Democrat is very likely to be Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) but the Republicans had a nasty primary won by former senator Dan Coats (R). In recent years, Coats has been a lobbyist for the banking industry, which is not likely to play well in hard-hit Indiana, but the race could be close. Still, Coats is the clear favorite.

Iowa

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Chuck Grassley (R)	Roxanne Conlin (D)	Chuck Grassley is a fixture in the Senate. Since 1986 he has always gotten at least 66% of the vote. He is unbeatable and recently negotiated a good committee assignment for the 112th Congress, so he has no intention of retiring. His challenger, Roxanne Conlin, a lawyer, served in the Justice Dept. and was a U.S. Attorney, so she knows about politics, but she has never run for public office. In a Democratic wave year she would have a shot at it, but in a Republican year she is probably doomed.

Kansas

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Jerry Moran (R)	Lisa Johnston (D)	Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) is retiring so Kansas has an open seat in 2010. No Democrat has been elected to the Senate from Kansas since 1932. However, if Gov. Kathleen Sebelius had run, she might have won, but since she opted for Secretary of Health and Human Services, Rep. Jerry Moran (R-KS) will easily defeat Lisa Johnston, a college dean who has never run for public office before.

Louisiana

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
David Vitter (R)	Charlie Melancon (D)	David Vitter is the only Republican ever elected to the Senate from Louisiana since direct election of senators began. He will certainly be under a cloud in 2010 because he was a frequest flyer at the establishment of the late D.C. madam, Deborah Jeane Palfrey. Count on his Democratic opponent to bring this up. But before even facing off against Melancon, he will have to beat back a challenge from Chet Traylor, a former state supreme court justice. Traylor, unlike Vitter, is not from New Orleans and may have serious support from rural voters unhappy with Vitter's dalliances as well as money from the business community. Still, at this moment, Vitter is the favorite.

North Dakota

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Tracy Potter (D)	John Hoeven (R)	Byron Dorgan's unexpected decision to retire in 2011 has opened up this race completely. Gov. John Hoeven (R-ND) jumped in immediately after Dorgan's announcement. The state's sole representative, Earl Pomeroy (D-ND), who has a safe seat in the House decided not to run for it, so the Democrats had no one. Eventually, state senator Tracy Potter decided to go for it. He'll lose to Hoeven in a landslide, but he might get some statewide exposure which could be useful in the future. Without a doubt, North Dakota is the Republican's best pickup opportunity.

Oklahoma

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Tom Coburn (R)	Jim Rogers (D)	Tom Coburn is a very conservative senator from a very conservative state. He would be safe under any conditions, but his opponent is an unknown teacher, Jim Rogers, with no money. Coburn will win in a landslide.

South Carolina

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Jim DeMint (R)	Alvin Greene (D)	Jim DeMint is the most conservative member of the Senate and fits his state well. He is completely safe. The Democratic nominee, Alvin Greene, is a totally unknown unemployed veteran. He'll certainly get 30% of the vote since some voters will never vote for a Republican, but he has no chance of actually winning.

South Dakota

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes           Polls
John Thune (R)	(D)	John Thune upset the Democratic minority leader, Tom Daschle, in 2004, violating a gentlemen's agreement that both parties had not to attack each other's leader. Consequently, Democrats would really like to go after him to get revenge. But potential candidate after potential candidate declined to run. In the end, they couldn't find anyone, so Thune will run unopposed.

Utah

Challenger	Challenger	Notes           Polls
Mike Lee (R)	Sam Granato (D)	Robert Bennett is a very conservative senator from a very conservative state. Although he won by 40 points last time, he was apparently not conservative enough and came in third at the state GOP convention, which means he wasn't even be on the primary ballot. The nomination went to an unknown attorney, but given how red the state is, he is the overwhelming favorite.