House of Representatives Elections 2010
Senate races are polled frequently, but House races are not. In fact, for the vast majority of House races, there are no polls at all. Still, using available data we can make some estimates of how each House race will go. The methodology and results are discussed below. But before starting a few basic facts are worth noting. Charlie Cook's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) measures how much more Democratic or Republican a congressional district is than the country as a whole based on the two previous presidential elections. Currently 240 CD's lean Republican and 195 lean Democratic. This effect is due to the fact that Democrats tend to be concentrated in cities and Republicans in rural areas. Of the 240 Republican-leaning CDs, currently 72 are represented in the House by Democrats. Only 10 Republicans represent Democratic-leaning districts. Thus if many districts return to their norm, the Democrats are going to take a big hit in the House, independent of everything else.
Prediction Methodology
To make predictions about how CDs will go without having polling data, we have to assemble some other data. In particular, for each CD we know the PVI, the 2008 election results, whether the incumbent is running again, and if so, how firmly established the representative is (i.e., how many elections has he or she won).
With this data available, here is the algorithm used in the table below. These predictions (given in the last column) will be used as our default value until a poll is published. For every race, each of the following steps is evaluated in order until one of them applies.
- If a candidate has no major party opponent, the candidate wins.
- An incumbent who got >= 55% of the vote in a contested 2008 election wins.
- Any CD where the 2008 race was decided by less than 3% is a tossup.
- Any incumbent first elected before 2000 wins.
- Any Republican incumbents in a district that is R+3 or more wins.
- Any Democratic incumbent in districts that is D+5 or more wins.
- An open seat in an R+5 or more district goes to the Republican.
- An open seat in a D+5 or more district goes to the Democrat.
- All other races are Tossups.
Here are some notes on why these rules were chosen. First off, for the past decade, the reelection rate for House incumbents not under indictment has been 94-98%. Even in the Republican wave year of 1994, 90% of all incumbents were reelected. Reasons for this effect include incumbents being better known and having more money than their challengers and having a track record of bringing home the bacon.
For half a century, the party in the White House has done very poorly in the midterms, almost without exception, so the Republicans have the wind at their backs this year. For this reason, we predict the Democrats will not be able to knock off any Republican incumbents in Republican (>= R+3) districts. In contrast, Democrats not in strong Democratic districts (D+5 or more) will be potentially vulnerable. However, any representative who got 55% of the vote in 2008 clearly has substantial personal popularity and will be tough to unseat. Any congressman elected before 2000 has survived both the Bush years and the Democratic waves of 2006 and 2008, and can probably survive anything other than being YouTubed in bed with a dead girl or a live boy (reverse for congresswomen). Open seats are harder to predict since none of the advantages of incumbency are in play, so swing districts (D+4 through R+4) represented by relative newbies who barely won last time are rated tossups and depend on the actual cast of characters and local details. HI-01 and LA-02 are heavily Democratic districts where Republicans were elected due to unusual circumstances that won't be repeated, so we rate them as Democratic takeovers. Once again, these predictions are only used when there has been no unbiased poll published for a race.
The bottom line here is that to keep control of the House, the Democrats are going to have to hang onto a very substantial number of the 72 red CDs they now occupy. In the absence of polling data, it is only a guess how well they will do. But also keep in mind the fact that the voters are often illogical. Generic House polls currently favor the Republicans despite the fact that virtually every poll shows that even though the voters dislike the congressional Democrats by large margins, they dislike the Republicans even more. Let's hope more actual polling data shows up soon.
Results for Each Congressional District
The data displayed below is available in .csv format for you to download and analyze yourself. Also available is the polling data. Finally, descriptions of the most hotly contested House races, with photos of the candidates and many relevant hyperlinks can be found here.
Below is a list of the Democratic and Republican candidates for the House of Representatives elections in 2010. The colors indicate the incumbent party, not the predicted one. The columns are as follows.
- CD = Code for the Congressional District (click on it for race description or map)
- PVI = Charlie Cook's Partisan Voting Index
- Inc. = Incumbent party (also for open seats)
- Open? = Is this an open seat?
- Elected = Year the incumbent was elected (unless he or she is not running)
- D '08 = Percentage of the vote the Democrat got in 2008
- R' 08 = Percentage of the vote the Republican got in 2008
- Democrat = Democratic candidate (incumbents are marked with *)
- Republican = Republican candidate (incumbents are marked with *
- Prediction = What the model predicts for 2010 (and why)
| CD* | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| AK-AL | R+13 | GOP | No | 1973 | 45% | 50% | Harry Crawford (D) | Don Young* (R) | GOP (since 1973) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| AL-01 | R+14 | GOP | No | 2002 | 0% | 100% | (No Democrat) | Jo Bonner* (R) | GOP (unopposed) |
| AL-02 | R+16 | Dem | No | 2008 | 50% | 49% | Bobby Bright* (D) | Martha Roby (R) | Tossup (1% diff in 2008) |
| AL-03 | R+9 | GOP | No | 2002 | 47% | 53% | Steve Segrest (D) | Mike Rogers* (R) | GOP (R+9) |
| AL-04 | R+26 | GOP | No | 1996 | 25% | 75% | (No Democrat) | Robert Aderholt* (R) | GOP (unopposed) |
| AL-05 | R+12 | GOP | Open | - | 52% | 48% | Steve Raby (D) | Mo Brooks (R) | GOP (open R+12) |
| AL-06 | R+29 | GOP | No | 1992 | 0% | 100% | (No Democrat) | Spencer Bachus* (R) | GOP (unopposed) |
| AL-07 | D+18 | Dem | Open | - | 100% | 0% | Terri Sewell (D) | Don Chamberlain (R) | Dem (open D+18) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| AR-01 | R+8 | Dem | Open | - | 100% | 0% | Chad Causey (D) | Rick Crawford (R) | GOP (open R+8) |
| AR-02 | R+5 | Dem | Open | - | 100% | 0% | Joyce Elliott (D) | Tim Griffin (R) | GOP (open R+5) |
| AR-03 | R+16 | GOP | Open | - | 0% | 100% | David Whitaker (D) | Steve Womack (R) | GOP (open R+16) |
| AR-04 | R+7 | Dem | No | 2000 | 100% | 0% | Mike Ross* (D) | Beth Anne Rankin (R) | Tossup |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| AZ-01 | R+6 | Dem | No | 2008 | 56% | 40% | Ann Kirkpatrick* (D) | Paul Gosar (R) | Dem (56% in 2008) |
| AZ-02 | R+13 | GOP | No | 2002 | 37% | 60% | John Thrasher (D) | Trent Franks* (R) | GOP (60% in 2008) |
| AZ-03 | R+9 | GOP | Open | - | 42% | 54% | Jon Hulburd (D) | Ben Quayle (R) | GOP (open R+9) |
| AZ-04 | D+13 | Dem | No | 1991 | 72% | 21% | Ed Pastor* (D) | Janet Contreras (R) | Dem (72% in 2008) |
| AZ-05 | R+5 | Dem | No | 2006 | 53% | 44% | Harry Mitchell* (D) | David Schweikert (R) | Tossup |
| AZ-06 | R+15 | GOP | No | 2000 | 35% | 62% | Rebecca Schneider (D) | Jeff Flake* (R) | GOP (62% in 2008) |
| AZ-07 | D+6 | Dem | No | 2002 | 63% | 33% | Raul Grijalva* (D) | Ruth McClung (R) | Dem (63% in 2008) |
| AZ-08 | R+4 | Dem | No | 2006 | 55% | 43% | Gabrielle Giffords* (D) | Jesse Kelly (R) | Dem (55% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| CA-01 | D+13 | Dem | No | 1998 | 68% | 24% | Mike Thompson* (D) | Loren Hanks (R) | Dem (68% in 2008) |
| CA-02 | R+11 | GOP | No | 1988 | 43% | 57% | Jim Reed (D) | Wally Herger* (R) | GOP (57% in 2008) |
| CA-03 | R+6 | GOP | No | 1998 | 44% | 50% | Ami Bera (D) | Dan Lungren* (R) | GOP (since 1998) |
| CA-04 | R+10 | GOP | No | 2008 | 49% | 50% | Clint Curtis (D) | Tom McClintock* (R) | Tossup (1% diff in 2008) |
| CA-05 | D+15 | Dem | No | 2005 | 74% | 21% | Doris Matsui* (D) | Paul Smith (R) | Dem (74% in 2008) |
| CA-06 | D+23 | Dem | No | 1992 | 72% | 24% | Lynn Woolsey* (D) | Jim Judd (R) | Dem (72% in 2008) |
| CA-07 | D+19 | Dem | No | 1974 | 73% | 21% | George Miller* (D) | Rick Tubbs (R) | Dem (73% in 2008) |
| CA-08 | D+35 | Dem | No | 1987 | 72% | 9% | Nancy Pelosi* (D) | John Dennis (R) | Dem (72% in 2008) |
| CA-09 | D+37 | Dem | No | 1998 | 86% | 10% | Barbara Lee* (D) | Gerald Hashimoto (R) | Dem (86% in 2008) |
| CA-10 | D+11 | Dem | No | 2009 | 53% | 43% | John Garamendi* (D) | Gary Clift (R) | Dem (D+11) |
| CA-11 | R+1 | Dem | No | 2006 | 55% | 45% | Jerry McNerney* (D) | David Harmer (R) | Dem (55% in 2008) |
| CA-12 | D+23 | Dem | No | 2008 | 75% | 19% | Jackie Speier* (D) | Mike Moloney (R) | Dem (75% in 2008) |
| CA-13 | D+22 | Dem | No | 1972 | 76% | 24% | Pete Stark* (D) | Forest Baker (R) | Dem (76% in 2008) |
| CA-14 | D+21 | Dem | No | 1992 | 70% | 22% | Anna Eshoo* (D) | Dave Chapman (R) | Dem (70% in 2008) |
| CA-15 | D+15 | Dem | No | 2000 | 72% | 23% | Mike Honda* (D) | Scott Kirkland (R) | Dem (72% in 2008) |
| CA-16 | D+16 | Dem | No | 1994 | 71% | 24% | Zoe Lofgren* (D) | Daniel Sahagun (R) | Dem (71% in 2008) |
| CA-17 | D+19 | Dem | No | 1992 | 75% | 25% | Sam Farr* (D) | Jeff Taylor (R) | Dem (75% in 2008) |
| CA-18 | D+4 | Dem | No | 2002 | 100% | 0% | Dennis Cardoza* (D) | Michael Berryhill (R) | Tossup |
| CA-19 | R+9 | GOP | Open | - | 0% | 100% | Lorraine Goodwin (D) | Jeff Denham (R) | GOP (open R+9) |
| CA-20 | D+5 | Dem | No | 2004 | 73% | 27% | Jim Costa* (D) | Andy Vidak (R) | Dem (73% in 2008) |
| CA-21 | R+13 | GOP | No | 2000 | 32% | 68% | (No Democrat) | Devin Nunes* (R) | GOP (unopposed) |
| CA-22 | R+16 | GOP | No | 2006 | 0% | 100% | (No Democrat) | Kevin McCarthy* (R) | GOP (unopposed) |
| CA-23 | D+12 | Dem | No | 1998 | 68% | 32% | Lois Capps* (D) | Tom Watson (R) | Dem (68% in 2008) |
| CA-24 | R+4 | GOP | No | 1986 | 42% | 58% | Timothy Allison (D) | Elton Gallegly* (R) | GOP (58% in 2008) |
| CA-25 | R+6 | GOP | No | 1992 | 43% | 57% | Jackie Conaway (D) | Howard McKeon* (R) | GOP (57% in 2008) |
| CA-26 | R+3 | GOP | No | 1980 | 41% | 52% | Russ Warner (D) | David Dreier* (R) | GOP (since 1980) |
| CA-27 | D+13 | Dem | No | 1996 | 69% | 25% | Brad Sherman* (D) | Mark Reed (R) | Dem (69% in 2008) |
| CA-28 | D+23 | Dem | No | 1982 | 100% | 0% | Howard Berman* (D) | Merlin Froyd (R) | Dem (since 1982) |
| CA-29 | D+14 | Dem | No | 2000 | 70% | 26% | Adam Schiff* (D) | John Colbert (R) | Dem (70% in 2008) |
| CA-30 | D+18 | Dem | No | 1974 | 100% | 0% | Henry Waxman* (D) | Chuck Wilkerson (R) | Dem (since 1974) |
| CA-31 | D+29 | Dem | No | 1992 | 100% | 0% | Xavier Becerra* (D) | Stephen Smith (R) | Dem (since 1992) |
| CA-32 | D+15 | Dem | No | 2009 | 62% | 33% | Judy Chu* (D) | Ed Schmerling (R) | Dem (62% in 2008) |
| CA-33 | D+35 | Dem | Open | - | 88% | 12% | Karen Bass (D) | James Andion (R) | Dem (open D+35) |
| CA-34 | D+22 | Dem | No | 1992 | 77% | 23% | Lucille Roybal-Allard* (D) | Wayne Miller (R) | Dem (77% in 2008) |
| CA-35 | D+31 | Dem | No | 1990 | 83% | 13% | Maxine Waters* (D) | Bruce Brown (R) | Dem (83% in 2008) |
| CA-36 | D+12 | Dem | No | 1986 | 69% | 31% | Jane Harman* (D) | Mattie Fein (R) | Dem (69% in 2008) |
| CA-37 | D+26 | Dem | No | 2007 | 100% | 0% | Laura Richardson* (D) | Star Parker (R) | Dem (D+26) |
| CA-38 | D+18 | Dem | No | 1998 | 100% | 0% | Grace Napolitano* (D) | Robert Vaughn (R) | Dem (since 1998) |
| CA-39 | D+12 | Dem | No | 2002 | 70% | 30% | Linda Sanchez* (D) | Larry Andre (R) | Dem (70% in 2008) |
| CA-40 | R+8 | GOP | No | 1992 | 37% | 63% | Christina Avalos (D) | Ed Royce* (R) | GOP (63% in 2008) |
| CA-41 | R+10 | GOP | No | 1978 | 38% | 62% | Pat Meagher (D) | Jerry Lewis* (R) | GOP (62% in 2008) |
| CA-42 | R+10 | GOP | No | 1998 | 40% | 60% | Michael Williamson (D) | Gary Miller* (R) | GOP (60% in 2008) |
| CA-43 | D+13 | Dem | No | 1999 | 68% | 32% | Joe Baca* (D) | Scott Folkens (R) | Dem (68% in 2008) |
| CA-44 | R+6 | GOP | No | 1992 | 49% | 51% | Bill Hedrick (D) | Ken Calvert* (R) | Tossup (2% diff in 2008) |
| CA-45 | R+3 | GOP | No | 1998 | 43% | 57% | Steve Pougnet (D) | Mary Bono-Mack* (R) | GOP (57% in 2008) |
| CA-46 | R+6 | GOP | No | 1988 | 43% | 53% | Ken Arnold (D) | Dana Rohrabacher* (R) | GOP (since 1988) |
| CA-47 | D+4 | Dem | No | 1996 | 67% | 27% | Loretta Sanchez* (D) | Van Tran (R) | Dem (67% in 2008) |
| CA-48 | R+6 | GOP | No | 2005 | 41% | 55% | Beth Krom (D) | John Campbell* (R) | GOP (55% in 2008) |
| CA-49 | R+10 | GOP | No | 2000 | 38% | 58% | Howard Katz (D) | Darrell Issa* (R) | GOP (58% in 2008) |
| CA-50 | R+3 | GOP | No | 2006 | 46% | 50% | Francine Busby (D) | Brian Bilbray* (R) | GOP (R+3) |
| CA-51 | D+8 | Dem | No | 1992 | 72% | 25% | Bob Filner* (D) | Nick Popaditch (R) | Dem (72% in 2008) |
| CA-52 | R+9 | GOP | No | 2008 | 39% | 57% | Ray Lutz (D) | Duncan Hunter* (R) | GOP (57% in 2008) |
| CA-53 | D+14 | Dem | No | 2000 | 69% | 27% | Susan Davis* (D) | Michael Crimmins (R) | Dem (69% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| CO-01 | D+21 | Dem | No | 1996 | 72% | 24% | Diana DeGette* (D) | Mike Fallon (R) | Dem (72% in 2008) |
| CO-02 | D+11 | Dem | No | 2008 | 62% | 34% | Jared Polis* (D) | Stephen Bailey (R) | Dem (62% in 2008) |
| CO-03 | R+5 | Dem | No | 2004 | 61% | 39% | John Salazar* (D) | Scott Tipton (R) | Dem (61% in 2008) |
| CA-04 | R+6 | Dem | No | 2008 | 56% | 44% | Betsy Markey* (D) | Cory Gardner (R) | Dem (56% in 2008) |
| CO-05 | R+14 | GOP | No | 2006 | 37% | 60% | Kevin Bradley (D) | Doug Lamborn* (R) | GOP (60% in 2008) |
| CO-06 | R+8 | GOP | No | 2008 | 40% | 60% | John Flerlage (D) | Mike Coffman* (R) | GOP (60% in 2008) |
| CO-07 | D+4 | Dem | No | 2006 | 63% | 37% | Ed Perlmutter* (D) | Ryan Frazier (R) | Dem (63% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| CT-01 | D+13 | Dem | No | 1998 | 72% | 26% | John Larson* (D) | Ann Brickley (R) | Dem (72% in 2008) |
| CT-02 | D+6 | Dem | No | 2006 | 65% | 33% | Joe Courtney* (D) | Janet Peckinpaugh (R) | Dem (65% in 2008) |
| CT-03 | D+9 | Dem | No | 1990 | 77% | 20% | Rosa DeLauro* (D) | Larry Labriola (R) | Dem (77% in 2008) |
| CT-04 | D+5 | Dem | No | 2008 | 51% | 48% | Jim Himes* (D) | Dan Debicella (R) | Dem (D+5) |
| CT-05 | D+2 | Dem | No | 2006 | 59% | 39% | Chris Murphy* (D) | Sam Caligiuri (R) | Dem (59% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| DE-AL | D+7 | GOP | Open | - | 38% | 61% | John Carney (D) | Primary | Dem (open D+7) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| FL-01 | R+21 | GOP | No | 2001 | 30% | 70% | (No Democrat) | Jeff Miller* (R) | GOP (unopposed) |
| FL-02 | R+6 | Dem | No | 1996 | 62% | 38% | Allen Boyd* (D) | Steve Southerland (R) | Dem (62% in 2008) |
| FL-03 | D+18 | Dem | No | 1992 | 100% | 0% | Corrine Brown* (D) | Mike Yost (R) | Dem (since 1992) |
| FL-04 | R+17 | GOP | No | 2000 | 35% | 65% | (No Democrat) | Ander Crenshaw* (R) | GOP (unopposed) |
| FL-05 | R+9 | GOP | Open | - | 39% | 61% | Jim Piccillo (D) | Rich Nugent (R) | GOP (open R+9) |
| FL-06 | R+10 | GOP | No | 1988 | 39% | 61% | (No Democrat) | Cliff Stearns* (R) | GOP (unopposed) |
| FL-07 | R+7 | GOP | No | 1992 | 38% | 62% | Heather Beaven (D) | John Mica* (R) | GOP (62% in 2008) |
| FL-08 | R+2 | Dem | No | 2008 | 52% | 48% | Alan Grayson* (D) | Dan Webster (R) | Tossup |
| FL-09 | R+6 | GOP | No | 2006 | 36% | 63% | Anita de Palma (D) | Gus Bilirakis* (R) | GOP (63% in 2008) |
| FL-10 | R+1 | GOP | No | 1970 | 39% | 61% | Charlie Justice (D) | Bill Young* (R) | GOP (61% in 2008) |
| FL-11 | D+11 | Dem | No | 2006 | 70% | 30% | Kathy Castor* (D) | Mike Prendergast (R) | Dem (70% in 2008) |
| FL-12 | R+6 | GOP | Open | - | 42% | 58% | Lori Edwards (D) | Dennis Ross (R) | GOP (open R+6) |
| FL-13 | R+6 | GOP | No | 2006 | 38% | 55% | James Golden (D) | Vern Buchanan* (R) | GOP (55% in 2008) |
| FL-14 | R+11 | GOP | No | 2004 | 25% | 59% | James Roach (D) | Connie Mack* (R) | GOP (59% in 2008) |
| FL-15 | R+6 | GOP | No | 2008 | 42% | 53% | Shannon Roberts (D) | Bill Posey* (R) | GOP (R+6) |
| FL-16 | R+5 | GOP | No | 2008 | 40% | 60% | Jim Horn (D) | Tom Rooney* (R) | GOP (60% in 2008) |
| FL-17 | D+34 | Dem | Open | - | 100% | 0% | Frederica Wilson (D) | (No Republican) | Dem (unopposed) |
| FL-18 | R+3 | GOP | No | 1989 | 42% | 58% | Rolando Banciella (D) | Ileana Ros-Lehtinen* (R) | GOP (58% in 2008) |
| FL-19 | D+15 | Dem | No | 2010 | 62% | 27% | Ted Deutch* (D) | Joe Budd (R) | Dem (62% in 2008) |
| FL-20 | D+13 | Dem | No | 2004 | 100% | 0% | Debbie Wasserman Schultz* (D) | Karen Harrington (R) | Dem (D+13) |
| FL-21 | R+5 | GOP | Open | - | 42% | 58% | (No Democrat) | Mario Diaz-Balart (R) | GOP (unopposed) |
| FL-22 | D+1 | Dem | No | 2006 | 55% | 45% | Ron Klein* (D) | Allen West (R) | Dem (55% in 2008) |
| FL-23 | D+28 | Dem | No | 1992 | 82% | 18% | Alcee Hastings* (D) | Bernard Sansaricq (R) | Dem (82% in 2008) |
| FL-24 | R+4 | Dem | No | 2008 | 57% | 41% | Suzanne Kosmas* (D) | Sandy Adams (R) | Dem (57% in 2008) |
| FL-25 | R+5 | GOP | Open | - | 47% | 53% | Joe Garcia (D) | David Rivera (R) | GOP (open R+5) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| GA-01 | R+16 | GOP | No | 1992 | 33% | 67% | Oscar Harris (D) | Jack Kingston* (R) | GOP (67% in 2008) |
| GA-02 | D+1 | Dem | No | 1992 | 69% | 31% | Sanford Bishop* (D) | Mike Keown (R) | Dem (69% in 2008) |
| GA-03 | R+19 | GOP | No | 2004 | 34% | 66% | Frank Saunders (D) | Lynn Westmoreland* (R) | GOP (66% in 2008) |
| GA-04 | D+24 | Dem | No | 2006 | 100% | 0% | Hank Johnson* (D) | Liz Carter (R) | Dem (D+24) |
| GA-05 | D+26 | Dem | No | 1986 | 100% | 0% | John Lewis* (D) | Fenn Little (R) | Dem (since 1986) |
| GA-06 | R+19 | GOP | No | 2004 | 31% | 69% | (No Democrat) | Tom Price* (R) | GOP (unopposed) |
| GA-07 | R+16 | GOP | Open | - | 38% | 62% | Doug Heckman (D) | Rob Woodall (R) | GOP (open R+16) |
| GA-08 | R+10 | Dem | No | 2002 | 57% | 43% | Jim Marshall* (D) | Austin Scott (R) | Dem (57% in 2008) |
| GA-09 | R+28 | GOP | Open | - | 24% | 76% | (No Democrat) | Tom Graves (R) | GOP (unopposed) |
| GA-10 | R+15 | GOP | No | 2007 | 39% | 61% | Russell Edwards (D) | Paul Broun* (R) | GOP (61% in 2008) |
| GA-11 | R+20 | GOP | No | 2007 | 32% | 68% | (No Democrat) | Phil Gingrey* (R) | GOP (unopposed) |
| GA-12 | D+1 | Dem | No | 2004 | 66% | 34% | John Barrow* (D) | Raymond McKinney (R) | Dem (66% in 2008) |
| GA-13 | D+15 | Dem | No | 2002 | 69% | 31% | David Scott* (D) | Mike Crane (R) | Dem (69% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| HI-01 | D+11 | GOP | No | - | 77% | 19% | Charles Djou (R) | Primary | Dem (D+11) |
| HI-02 | D+14 | Dem | No | 2006 | 76% | 20% | Mazie Hirono* (D) | Primary | Dem (76% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| IA-01 | D+5 | Dem | No | 2006 | 64% | 36% | Bruce Braley* (D) | Benjamin Lange (R) | Dem (64% in 2008) |
| IA-02 | D+7 | Dem | No | 2006 | 57% | 39% | David Loebsack* (D) | Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) | Dem (57% in 2008) |
| IA-03 | D+1 | Dem | No | 1996 | 56% | 42% | Leonard Boswell* (D) | Brad Zaun (R) | Dem (56% in 2008) |
| IA-04 | D+ | GOP | No | 1994 | 39% | 61% | Bill Maske (D) | Tom Latham* (R) | GOP (61% in 2008) |
| IA-05 | R+9 | GOP | No | 2002 | 37% | 60% | Matthew Campbell (D) | Steve King* (R) | GOP (60% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| ID-01 | R+18 | Dem | No | 2008 | 51% | 49% | Walt Minnick* (D) | Raul Labrador (R) | Tossup (2% diff in 2008) |
| ID-02 | R+17 | GOP | No | 1998 | 29% | 71% | Mike Crawford (D) | Mike Simpson* (R) | GOP (71% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| IL-01 | D+34 | Dem | No | 1992 | 86% | 14% | Bobby Rush* (D) | Ray Wardingley (R) | Dem (86% in 2008) |
| IL-02 | D+36 | Dem | No | 1995 | 89% | 11% | Jesse Jackson Jr.* (D) | Isaac C. Hayes (R) | Dem (89% in 2008) |
| IL-03 | D+11 | Dem | No | 2004 | 73% | 22% | Dan Lipinski* (D) | Michael Bendas (R) | Dem (73% in 2008) |
| IL-04 | D+32 | Dem | No | 1992 | 81% | 11% | Luis Gutierrez* (D) | Israel Vasquez (R) | Dem (81% in 2008) |
| IL-05 | D+19 | Dem | No | 2009 | 69% | 24% | Michael Quigley* (D) | David Ratowitz (R) | Dem (69% in 2008) |
| IL-06 | D+ | GOP | No | 2006 | 42% | 58% | Benjamin Lowe (D) | Peter Roskam* (R) | GOP (58% in 2008) |
| IL-07 | D+35 | Dem | No | 1996 | 85% | 15% | Danny Davis* (D) | Mark Weiman (R) | Dem (85% in 2008) |
| IL-08 | R+1 | Dem | No | 2004 | 60% | 40% | Melissa Bean* (D) | Joe Walsh (R) | Dem (60% in 2008) |
| IL-09 | D+20 | Dem | No | 1998 | 75% | 22% | Jan Schakowsky* (D) | Joel Pollak (R) | Dem (75% in 2008) |
| IL-10 | D+6 | GOP | Open | - | 46% | 54% | Daniel Seals (D) | Robert Dold (R) | Dem (open D+6) |
| IL-11 | R+1 | Dem | No | 2008 | 58% | 35% | Debbie Halvorson* (D) | Adam Kinzinger (R) | Dem (58% in 2008) |
| IL-12 | D+3 | Dem | No | 1988 | 71% | 25% | Jerry Costello* (D) | Teri Newman (R) | Dem (71% in 2008) |
| IL-13 | R+1 | GOP | No | 1998 | 44% | 53% | Scott Harper (D) | Judy Biggert* (R) | GOP (since 1998) |
| IL-14 | R+1 | Dem | No | 2008 | 57% | 43% | Bill Foster* (D) | Randy Hultgren (R) | Dem (57% in 2008) |
| IL-15 | R+6 | GOP | No | 2000 | 36% | 64% | David Gill (D) | Tim Johnson* (R) | GOP (64% in 2008) |
| IL-16 | R+2 | GOP | No | 1992 | 36% | 61% | George Gaulrapp (D) | Donald Manzullo* (R) | GOP (61% in 2008) |
| IL-17 | D+3 | Dem | No | 2006 | 100% | 0% | Phil Hare* (D) | Bobby Schilling (R) | Tossup |
| IL-18 | R+6 | GOP | No | 2008 | 38% | 59% | D.K. Hirner (D) | Aaron Schock* (R) | GOP (59% in 2008) |
| IL-19 | R+9 | GOP | No | 1996 | 33% | 65% | Tim Bagwell (D) | John Shimkus* (R) | GOP (65% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| IN-01 | D+8 | Dem | No | 1984 | 71% | 27% | Pete Visclosky* (D) | Mark Leyva (R) | Dem (71% in 2008) |
| IN-02 | R+2 | Dem | No | 2006 | 67% | 30% | Joe Donnelly* (D) | Jackie Walorski (R) | Dem (67% in 2008) |
| IN-03 | R+14 | GOP | Open | - | 40% | 55% | Primary | Primary | GOP (open R+14) |
| IN-04 | R+14 | GOP | Open | - | 40% | 60% | David Sanders (D) | Todd Rokita (R) | GOP (open R+14) |
| IN-05 | R+17 | GOP | No | 1982 | 34% | 66% | Tim Crawford (D) | Dan Burton* (R) | GOP (66% in 2008) |
| IN-06 | R+10 | GOP | No | 2000 | 33% | 64% | Barry Welsh (D) | Mike Pence* (R) | GOP (64% in 2008) |
| IN-07 | D+14 | Dem | No | 2008 | 65% | 35% | Andre Carson* (D) | Marvin Scott (R) | Dem (65% in 2008) |
| IN-08 | R+8 | Dem | Open | - | 65% | 35% | Trent Van Haaften (D) | Larry Bucshon (R) | GOP (open R+8) |
| IN-09 | R+6 | Dem | No | 2006 | 58% | 38% | Baron Hill* (D) | Todd Young (R) | Dem (58% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| KS-01 | R+23 | GOP | Open | - | 13% | 82% | Alan Jilka (D) | Tim Huelskamp (R) | GOP (open R+23) |
| KS-02 | R+9 | GOP | No | 2008 | 46% | 51% | Cheryl Hudspeth (D) | Lynn Jenkins* (R) | GOP (R+9) |
| KS-03 | R+3 | Dem | Open | - | 56% | 40% | Stephene Moore (D) | Kevin Yoder (R) | Tossup |
| KS-04 | R+14 | GOP | Open | - | 32% | 64% | Raj Goyle (D) | Mike Pompeo (R) | GOP (open R+14) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| KY-01 | R+15 | GOP | No | 1994 | 36% | 64% | Charles Kendall Hatchett (D) | Ed Whitfield* (R) | GOP (64% in 2008) |
| KY-02 | R+15 | GOP | No | 2008 | 47% | 53% | Ed Marksberry (D) | Brett Guthrie* (R) | GOP (R+15) |
| KY-03 | D+2 | Dem | No | 2006 | 59% | 41% | John Yarmuth* (D) | Todd Lally (R) | Dem (59% in 2008) |
| KY-04 | R+14 | GOP | No | 2004 | 37% | 63% | John Waltz (D) | Geoff Davis* (R) | GOP (63% in 2008) |
| KY-05 | R+16 | GOP | No | 1980 | 0% | 100% | Jim Holbert (D) | Hal Rogers* (R) | GOP (since 1980) |
| KY-06 | R+9 | Dem | No | 2004 | 65% | 35% | Ben Chandler* (D) | Andy Barr (R) | Dem (65% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| LA-01 | R+24 | GOP | No | 2008 | 34% | 66% | Myron Katz (D) | Steve Scalise* (R) | GOP (66% in 2008) |
| LA-02 | D+25 | GOP | No | 2008 | 47% | 50% | Cedric Richmond (D) | Joseph Cao* (R) | Dem (D+25) |
| LA-03 | R+12 | GOP | Open | - | 100% | 0% | Primary | Primary | GOP (open R+12) |
| LA-04 | R+11 | GOP | No | 2008 | 49% | 50% | David Melville (D) | John Fleming* (R) | Tossup (1% diff in 2008) |
| LA-05 | R+14 | GOP | No | 2002 | 0% | 100% | Rodney Alexander* (R) | Primary | GOP (R+14) |
| LA-06 | R+10 | GOP | No | 2008 | 40% | 48% | Merritt McDonald (D) | Bill Cassidy* (R) | GOP (R+10) |
| LA-07 | R+14 | GOP | No | 2004 | 34% | 62% | Charles Boustany* (R) | Primary | GOP (62% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| MA-01 | D+14 | Dem | No | 1991 | 73% | 27% | John Olver* (D) | William Gunn (R) | Dem (73% in 2008) |
| MA-02 | D+9 | Dem | No | 1988 | 100% | 0% | Richard Neal* (D) | Primary | Dem (since 1988) |
| MA-03 | D+9 | Dem | No | 1996 | 100% | 0% | Jim McGovern* (D) | Primary | Dem (since 1996) |
| MA-04 | D+14 | Dem | No | 1980 | 68% | 25% | Barney Frank* (D) | Primary | Dem (68% in 2008) |
| MA-05 | D+8 | Dem | No | 2007 | 100% | 0% | Niki Tsongas* (D) | Primary | Dem (D+8) |
| MA-06 | D+7 | Dem | No | 1996 | 70% | 30% | John Tierney* (D) | Primary | Dem (70% in 2008) |
| MA-07 | D+15 | Dem | No | 1976 | 76% | 24% | Ed Markey* (D) | Primary | Dem (76% in 2008) |
| MA-08 | D+32 | Dem | No | 1998 | 100% | 0% | Mike Capuano* (D) | Primary | Dem (since 1998) |
| MA-09 | D+11 | Dem | No | 2001 | 100% | 0% | Stephen Lynch* (D) | Primary | Dem (D+11) |
| MA-10 | D+5 | Dem | Open | - | 100% | 0% | William Keating (D) | Primary | Dem (open D+5) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| MD-01 | R+13 | Dem | No | 2008 | 50% | 49% | Frank Kratovil* (D) | Primary | Tossup (1% diff in 2008) |
| MD-02 | D+7 | Dem | No | 2002 | 72% | 25% | Dutch Ruppersberger* (D) | Primary | Dem (72% in 2008) |
| MD-03 | D+6 | Dem | No | 2006 | 70% | 30% | John Sarbanes* (D) | Primary | Dem (70% in 2008) |
| MD-04 | D+31 | Dem | No | 2008 | 86% | 13% | Donna Edwards* (D) | Robert Broadus (R) | Dem (86% in 2008) |
| MD-05 | D+11 | Dem | No | 1981 | 74% | 24% | Steny Hoyer* (D) | Primary | Dem (74% in 2008) |
| MD-06 | R+13 | GOP | No | 1992 | 39% | 58% | Roscoe Bartlett* (R) | Primary | GOP (58% in 2008) |
| MD-07 | D+25 | Dem | No | 1996 | 80% | 18% | Elijah Cummings* (D) | Primary | Dem (80% in 2008) |
| MD-08 | D+21 | Dem | No | 2002 | 75% | 22% | Chris Van Hollen Jr.* (D) | Primary | Dem (75% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| ME-01 | D+8 | Dem | No | 2008 | 55% | 45% | Chellie Pingree* (D) | Dean Scontras (R) | Dem (55% in 2008) |
| ME-02 | D+3 | Dem | No | 2002 | 67% | 33% | Mike Michaud* (D) | Jason Levesque (R) | Dem (67% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| MI-01 | R+3 | Dem | Open | - | 65% | 33% | Gary McDowell (D) | Dan Benishek (R) | Tossup |
| MI-02 | R+7 | GOP | Open | - | 35% | 62% | Fred Johnson (D) | Bill Huizenga (R) | GOP (open R+7) |
| MI-03 | R+6 | GOP | Open | - | 35% | 61% | Pat Miles (D) | Justin Amash (R) | GOP (open R+6) |
| MI-04 | R+3 | GOP | No | 1990 | 36% | 62% | Jerry Campbell (D) | Dave Camp* (R) | GOP (62% in 2008) |
| MI-05 | D+11 | Dem | No | 1976 | 70% | 27% | Dale Kildee* (D) | John Kuipec (R) | Dem (70% in 2008) |
| MI-06 | R+ | GOP | No | 1986 | 39% | 59% | Don Cooney (D) | Fred Upton* (R) | GOP (59% in 2008) |
| MI-07 | R+2 | Dem | No | 2008 | 49% | 46% | Mark Schauer* (D) | Tim Walberg (R) | Tossup |
| MI-08 | R+2 | GOP | No | 2000 | 40% | 57% | Lance Enderle (D) | Mike Rogers* (R) | GOP (57% in 2008) |
| MI-09 | D+2 | Dem | No | 2008 | 52% | 43% | Gary Peters* (D) | Rocky Raczowski (R) | Tossup |
| MI-10 | R+5 | GOP | No | 2002 | 31% | 66% | Henry Yanez (D) | Candice Miller* (R) | GOP (66% in 2008) |
| MI-11 | R+ | GOP | No | 2002 | 45% | 51% | Natalie Mosher (D) | Thad McCotter* (R) | Tossup |
| MI-12 | D+12 | Dem | No | 1982 | 72% | 24% | Sander Levin* (D) | Don Volaric (R) | Dem (72% in 2008) |
| MI-13 | D+31 | Dem | Open | - | 74% | 19% | Hansen Clarke (D) | John Hauler (R) | Dem (open D+31) |
| MI-14 | D+34 | Dem | No | 1964 | 100% | 0% | John Conyers Jr.* (D) | Don Ukrainec (R) | Dem (since 1964) |
| MI-15 | D+13 | Dem | No | 1955 | 71% | 25% | John Dingell* (D) | Rob Steele (R) | Dem (71% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| MN-01 | R+1 | Dem | No | 2006 | 63% | 33% | Tim Walz* (D) | Randy Demmer (R) | Dem (63% in 2008) |
| MN-02 | R+4 | GOP | No | 2002 | 43% | 57% | Shelly Madore (D) | John Kline* (R) | GOP (57% in 2008) |
| MN-03 | R+ | GOP | No | 2008 | 41% | 48% | Jim Meffert (D) | Erik Paulsen* (R) | Tossup |
| MN-04 | D+13 | Dem | No | 2000 | 69% | 31% | Betty McCollum* (D) | Teresa Collett (R) | Dem (69% in 2008) |
| MN-05 | D+23 | Dem | No | 2006 | 71% | 22% | Keith Ellison* (D) | Joel Demos (R) | Dem (71% in 2008) |
| MN-06 | R+7 | GOP | No | 2006 | 44% | 46% | Tarryl Clark (D) | Michele Bachmann* (R) | Tossup (2% diff in 2008) |
| MN-07 | R+5 | Dem | No | 1990 | 72% | 28% | Collin Peterson* (D) | Lee Byberg (R) | Dem (72% in 2008) |
| MN-08 | D+3 | Dem | No | 1974 | 68% | 32% | Jim Oberstar* (D) | Chip Cravaack (R) | Dem (68% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| MO-01 | D+27 | Dem | No | 2000 | 100% | 0% | William Lacy Clay Jr.* (D) | Robyn Hamlin (R) | Dem (D+27) |
| MO-02 | R+9 | GOP | No | 2000 | 36% | 62% | Arthur Lieber (D) | Todd Akin* (R) | GOP (62% in 2008) |
| MO-03 | D+7 | Dem | No | 2004 | 66% | 30% | Russ Carnahan* (D) | Ed Martin (R) | Dem (66% in 2008) |
| MO-04 | R+14 | Dem | No | 1976 | 66% | 34% | Ike Skelton* (D) | Vicky Hartzler (R) | Dem (66% in 2008) |
| MO-05 | D+10 | Dem | No | 2004 | 64% | 36% | Emanuel Cleaver* (D) | Jacob Turk (R) | Dem (64% in 2008) |
| MO-06 | R+7 | GOP | No | 2000 | 37% | 59% | Clint Hylton (D) | Sam Graves* (R) | GOP (59% in 2008) |
| MO-07 | R+17 | GOP | Open | - | 28% | 68% | Scott Eckersley (D) | Billy Long (R) | GOP (open R+17) |
| MO-08 | R+15 | GOP | No | 1996 | 26% | 71% | Tommy Sowers (D) | Jo-Ann Emerson* (R) | GOP (71% in 2008) |
| MO-09 | R+9 | GOP | No | 2008 | 47% | 50% | (No Democrat) | Blaine Luetkemeyer* (R) | GOP (unopposed) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| MS-01 | R+14 | Dem | No | 2008 | 54% | 44% | Travis Childers* (D) | Alan Nunnelee (R) | Tossup |
| MS-02 | D+12 | Dem | No | 1993 | 69% | 31% | Bennie Thompson* (D) | Bill Marcy (R) | Dem (69% in 2008) |
| MS-03 | R+15 | GOP | No | 2008 | 37% | 63% | Joel Gill (D) | Gregg Harper* (R) | GOP (63% in 2008) |
| MS-04 | R+20 | Dem | No | 1989 | 75% | 25% | Gene Taylor* (D) | Steven Palazzo (R) | Dem (75% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| MT-AL | R+7 | GOP | No | 2000 | 32% | 64% | Dennis McDonald (D) | Denny Rehberg* (R) | GOP (64% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| NC-01 | D+9 | Dem | No | 2004 | 70% | 30% | G.K. Butterfield* (D) | Ashley Woolard (R) | Dem (70% in 2008) |
| NC-02 | R+2 | Dem | No | 1996 | 67% | 31% | Bob Etheridge* (D) | Renee Ellmers (R) | Dem (67% in 2008) |
| NC-03 | R+16 | GOP | No | 1994 | 34% | 66% | Johnny Rouse (D) | Walter Jones* (R) | GOP (66% in 2008) |
| NC-04 | D+8 | Dem | No | 1996 | 63% | 37% | David Price* (D) | B.J. Lawson (R) | Dem (63% in 2008) |
| NC-05 | R+15 | GOP | No | 2004 | 42% | 58% | William Kennedy (D) | Virginia Foxx* (R) | GOP (58% in 2008) |
| NC-06 | R+18 | GOP | No | 1984 | 33% | 67% | Gregory Scott Turner (D) | Howard Coble* (R) | GOP (67% in 2008) |
| NC-07 | R+5 | Dem | No | 1996 | 69% | 31% | Mike McIntyre* (D) | Ilario Pantano (R) | Dem (69% in 2008) |
| NC-08 | R+2 | Dem | No | 2008 | 55% | 45% | Larry Kissell* (D) | Harold Johnson (R) | Dem (55% in 2008) |
| NC-09 | R+11 | GOP | No | 1994 | 36% | 62% | Jeff Doctor (D) | Sue Myrick* (R) | GOP (62% in 2008) |
| NC-10 | R+17 | GOP | No | 2004 | 42% | 58% | Jeff Gregory (D) | Patrick McHenry* (R) | GOP (58% in 2008) |
| NC-11 | R+6 | Dem | No | 2006 | 62% | 36% | Heath Shuler* (D) | Jeff Miller (R) | Dem (62% in 2008) |
| NC-12 | D+16 | Dem | No | 1992 | 72% | 28% | Mel Watt* (D) | Greg Dority (R) | Dem (72% in 2008) |
| NC-13 | D+5 | Dem | No | 2002 | 66% | 34% | Brad Miller* (D) | William Randall (R) | Dem (66% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| ND-AL | R+10 | GOP | No | 1992 | 62% | 38% | Earl Pomeroy* (D) | Rick Berg (R) | GOP (since 1992) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| NE-01 | R+11 | GOP | No | 2004 | 30% | 70% | Ivy Harper (D) | Jeff Fortenberry* (R) | GOP (70% in 2008) |
| NE-02 | R+6 | GOP | No | 1998 | 48% | 52% | Tom White (D) | Lee Terry* (R) | GOP (since 1998) |
| NE-03 | R+24 | GOP | No | 2006 | 23% | 77% | Rebekah Davis (D) | Adrian Smith* (R) | GOP (77% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| NH-01 | R+ | Dem | No | 2006 | 52% | 46% | Carol Shea-Porter* (D) | Primary | Tossup |
| NH-02 | D+3 | Dem | Open | - | 57% | 41% | Primary | Primary | Tossup |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| NJ-01 | D+12 | Dem | No | 1990 | 72% | 26% | Rob Andrews* (D) | Dale Glading (R) | Dem (72% in 2008) |
| NJ-02 | D+1 | GOP | No | 1994 | 39% | 59% | Gary Stein (D) | Frank LoBiondo* (R) | GOP (59% in 2008) |
| NJ-03 | R+1 | Dem | No | 2008 | 52% | 48% | John Adler* (D) | Jon Runyan (R) | Tossup |
| NJ-04 | R+6 | GOP | No | 1980 | 33% | 66% | Howard Kleinhendler (D) | Chris Smith* (R) | GOP (66% in 2008) |
| NJ-05 | R+7 | GOP | No | 2002 | 42% | 56% | Tod Thiese (D) | Scott Garrett* (R) | GOP (56% in 2008) |
| NJ-06 | D+8 | Dem | No | 1988 | 67% | 32% | Frank Pallone* (D) | Anna C. Little (R) | Dem (67% in 2008) |
| NJ-07 | R+3 | GOP | No | 2008 | 41% | 51% | Ed Potosnak (D) | Leonard Lance* (R) | GOP (R+3) |
| NJ-08 | D+10 | Dem | No | 1996 | 71% | 28% | Bill Pascrell* (D) | Roland Straten (R) | Dem (71% in 2008) |
| NJ-09 | D+9 | Dem | No | 1996 | 68% | 32% | Steve Rothman* (D) | Michael Agosta (R) | Dem (68% in 2008) |
| NJ-10 | D+33 | Dem | No | 1988 | 100% | 0% | Don Payne* (D) | Michael Alonso (R) | Dem (since 1988) |
| NJ-11 | R+7 | GOP | No | 1994 | 37% | 62% | Douglas Herbert (D) | Rodney Frelinghuysen* (R) | GOP (62% in 2008) |
| NJ-12 | D+5 | Dem | No | 1998 | 62% | 36% | Rush Holt* (D) | Scott M. Sipprelle (R) | Dem (62% in 2008) |
| NJ-13 | D+21 | Dem | No | 2006 | 75% | 22% | Albio Sires* (D) | Henrietta Dwyer (R) | Dem (75% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| NM-01 | D+5 | Dem | No | 2008 | 55% | 45% | Martin Heinrich* (D) | Jon Barela (R) | Dem (55% in 2008) |
| NM-02 | R+6 | Dem | No | 2008 | 56% | 44% | Harry Teague* (D) | Steve Pearce (R) | Dem (56% in 2008) |
| NM-03 | D+7 | Dem | No | 2008 | 56% | 31% | Ben Lujan* (D) | Tom Mullins (R) | Dem (56% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| NV-01 | D+10 | Dem | No | 1998 | 68% | 28% | Shelley Berkley* (D) | Kenneth A. Wegner (R) | Dem (68% in 2008) |
| NV-02 | R+5 | GOP | No | 2006 | 41% | 52% | Nancy Price (D) | Dean Heller* (R) | GOP (R+5) |
| NV-03 | D+2 | Dem | No | 2008 | 48% | 42% | Dina Titus* (D) | Joe Heck (R) | Tossup |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| NY-01 | R+1 | Dem | No | 2002 | 58% | 42% | Tim Bishop* (D) | Primary | Dem (58% in 2008) |
| NY-02 | D+4 | Dem | No | 2000 | 66% | 34% | Steve Israel* (D) | John Gomez (R) | Dem (66% in 2008) |
| NY-03 | R+4 | GOP | No | 1992 | 36% | 64% | Howard Kudler (D) | Peter King* (R) | GOP (64% in 2008) |
| NY-04 | D+6 | Dem | No | 1996 | 64% | 36% | Carolyn McCarthy* (D) | Primary | Dem (64% in 2008) |
| NY-05 | D+12 | Dem | No | 1983 | 70% | 28% | Gary Ackerman* (D) | Primary | Dem (70% in 2008) |
| NY-06 | D+36 | Dem | No | 1998 | 100% | 0% | Gregory Meeks* (D) | Asher Taub (R) | Dem (since 1998) |
| NY-07 | D+26 | Dem | No | 1998 | 85% | 15% | Joseph Crowley* (D) | Ken Reynolds (R) | Dem (85% in 2008) |
| NY-08 | D+22 | Dem | No | 1992 | 80% | 20% | Jerrold Nadler* (D) | Susan Kone (R) | Dem (80% in 2008) |
| NY-09 | D+5 | Dem | No | 1998 | 100% | 0% | Anthony Weiner* (D) | Bob Turner (R) | Dem (since 1998) |
| NY-10 | D+38 | Dem | No | 1982 | 94% | 6% | Ed Towns* (D) | Diana Muniz (R) | Dem (94% in 2008) |
| NY-11 | D+38 | Dem | No | 2006 | 92% | 7% | Yvette Clarke* (D) | Hugh Carr (R) | Dem (92% in 2008) |
| NY-12 | D+33 | Dem | No | 1992 | 89% | 11% | Nydia Velazquez* (D) | Primary | Dem (89% in 2008) |
| NY-13 | R+4 | Dem | No | 2008 | 61% | 33% | Michael McMahon* (D) | Primary | Dem (61% in 2008) |
| NY-14 | D+26 | Dem | No | 1992 | 79% | 19% | Carolyn Maloney* (D) | Primary | Dem (79% in 2008) |
| NY-15 | D+41 | Dem | No | 1970 | 88% | 9% | Primary | Primary | Dem (88% in 2008) |
| NY-16 | D+41 | Dem | No | 1990 | 97% | 3% | Jose Serrano* (D) | Frank Della Valle (R) | Dem (97% in 2008) |
| NY-17 | D+18 | Dem | No | 1988 | 79% | 21% | Eliot Engel* (D) | Primary | Dem (79% in 2008) |
| NY-18 | D+9 | Dem | No | 1988 | 68% | 32% | Nita Lowey* (D) | James Russell (R) | Dem (68% in 2008) |
| NY-19 | R+3 | Dem | No | 2006 | 58% | 42% | John Hall* (D) | Primary | Dem (58% in 2008) |
| NY-20 | R+2 | Dem | No | 2009 | 50% | 49% | Scott Murphy* (D) | Christopher Gibson (R) | Tossup (1% diff in 2008) |
| NY-21 | D+6 | Dem | No | 2008 | 62% | 35% | Paul Tonko* (D) | Theodore Danz (R) | Dem (62% in 2008) |
| NY-22 | D+6 | Dem | No | 1992 | 66% | 34% | Maurice Hinchey* (D) | George Phillips (R) | Dem (66% in 2008) |
| NY-23 | R+1 | Dem | No | 2009 | 48% | 46% | Bill Owens* (D) | Primary | Tossup (2% diff in 2008) |
| NY-24 | R+2 | Dem | No | 2006 | 51% | 49% | Mike Arcuri* (D) | Richard Hanna (R) | Tossup (2% diff in 2008) |
| NY-25 | D+3 | Dem | No | 2008 | 55% | 42% | Dan Maffei* (D) | Ann Marie Beurkle (R) | Dem (55% in 2008) |
| NY-26 | R+6 | GOP | No | 2008 | 40% | 55% | Philip Fedele (D) | Chris Lee* (R) | GOP (55% in 2008) |
| NY-27 | D+4 | Dem | No | 2004 | 74% | 23% | Brian Higgins* (D) | Leonard Roberto (R) | Dem (74% in 2008) |
| NY-28 | D+15 | Dem | No | 1986 | 78% | 22% | Louise Slaughter* (D) | Jill Rowland (R) | Dem (78% in 2008) |
| NY-29 | R+5 | Dem | Open | - | 51% | 49% | Primary | Primary | Tossup (2% diff in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| OH-01 | D+1 | Dem | No | 2008 | 51% | 49% | Steven Driehaus* (D) | Steve Chabot (R) | Tossup (2% diff in 2008) |
| OH-02 | R+13 | GOP | No | 2005 | 37% | 45% | Surya Yalamanchili (D) | Jean Schmidt* (R) | GOP (R+13) |
| OH-03 | R+5 | GOP | No | 2002 | 36% | 64% | Joe Roberts (D) | Mike Turner* (R) | GOP (64% in 2008) |
| OH-04 | R+15 | GOP | No | 2006 | 35% | 65% | Doug Litt (D) | Jim Jordan* (R) | GOP (65% in 2008) |
| OH-05 | R+9 | GOP | No | 2007 | 36% | 64% | Caleb Finkenbiner (D) | Bob Latta* (R) | GOP (64% in 2008) |
| OH-06 | R+2 | Dem | No | 2006 | 62% | 33% | Charlie Wilson* (D) | Bill Johnson (R) | Dem (62% in 2008) |
| OH-07 | R+7 | GOP | No | 2008 | 42% | 58% | Bill Conner (D) | Steve Austria* (R) | GOP (58% in 2008) |
| OH-08 | R+14 | GOP | No | 1990 | 32% | 68% | Justin Coussoule (D) | John Boehner* (R) | GOP (68% in 2008) |
| OH-09 | D+10 | Dem | No | 1982 | 74% | 26% | Marcy Kaptur* (D) | Rich Iott (R) | Dem (74% in 2008) |
| OH-10 | D+8 | Dem | No | 1996 | 57% | 39% | Dennis Kucinich* (D) | Peter Corrigan (R) | Dem (57% in 2008) |
| OH-11 | D+32 | Dem | No | 2008 | 85% | 15% | Marcia Fudge* (D) | Matt Brakey (R) | Dem (85% in 2008) |
| OH-12 | D+1 | GOP | No | 2000 | 42% | 55% | Paula Brooks (D) | Pat Tiberi* (R) | GOP (55% in 2008) |
| OH-13 | D+5 | Dem | No | 2006 | 65% | 35% | Betty Sutton* (D) | Tom Ganley (R) | Dem (65% in 2008) |
| OH-14 | R+3 | GOP | No | 1994 | 39% | 58% | William O'Neill (D) | Steve LaTourette* (R) | GOP (58% in 2008) |
| OH-15 | D+1 | Dem | No | 2008 | 46% | 45% | Mary Jo Kilroy* (D) | Steve Stivers (R) | Tossup (1% diff in 2008) |
| OH-16 | R+4 | Dem | No | 2008 | 54% | 46% | John Boccieri* (D) | Jim Renacci (R) | Tossup |
| OH-17 | D+12 | Dem | No | 2002 | 78% | 22% | Tim Ryan* (D) | Jim Graham (R) | Dem (78% in 2008) |
| OH-18 | R+7 | Dem | No | 2006 | 60% | 40% | Zack Space* (D) | Bob Gibbs (R) | Dem (60% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| OK-01 | R+16 | GOP | No | 2002 | 34% | 66% | (No Democrat) | John Sullivan* (R) | GOP (unopposed) |
| OK-02 | R+14 | Dem | No | 2004 | 70% | 30% | Dan Boren* (D) | Charles Thompson (R) | Dem (70% in 2008) |
| OK-03 | R+24 | GOP | No | 1994 | 23% | 70% | Frankie Robbins (D) | Frank Lucas* (R) | GOP (70% in 2008) |
| OK-04 | R+18 | GOP | No | 2002 | 29% | 66% | (No Democrat) | Tom Cole* (R) | GOP (unopposed) |
| OK-05 | R+13 | GOP | Open | - | 34% | 66% | Billy Coyle (D) | James Lankford (R) | GOP (open R+13) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| OR-01 | D+8 | Dem | No | 1998 | 100% | 0% | David Wu* (D) | Rob Cornilles (R) | Dem (since 1998) |
| OR-02 | R+10 | GOP | No | 1998 | 26% | 70% | Joyce Segers (D) | Greg Walden* (R) | GOP (70% in 2008) |
| OR-03 | D+19 | Dem | No | 1996 | 75% | 21% | Earl Blumenauer* (D) | Delia Lopez (R) | Dem (75% in 2008) |
| OR-04 | D+2 | Dem | No | 1986 | 100% | 0% | Peter DeFazio* (D) | Art Robinson (R) | Dem (since 1986) |
| OR-05 | D+1 | Dem | No | 2008 | 55% | 38% | Kurt Schrader* (D) | Scott Bruun (R) | Dem (55% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| PA-01 | D+35 | Dem | No | 1998 | 91% | 9% | Bob Brady* (D) | Pia Varma (R) | Dem (91% in 2008) |
| PA-02 | D+38 | Dem | No | 1994 | 89% | 11% | Chaka Fattah* (D) | Rick Hellberg (R) | Dem (89% in 2008) |
| PA-03 | R+3 | Dem | No | 2008 | 52% | 48% | Kathy Dahlkemper* (D) | Mike Kelly (R) | Tossup |
| PA-04 | R+6 | Dem | No | 2006 | 56% | 44% | Jason Altmire* (D) | Keith Rothfuss (R) | Dem (56% in 2008) |
| PA-05 | R+9 | GOP | No | 2008 | 41% | 57% | Michael Pipe (D) | G.T. Thompson* (R) | GOP (57% in 2008) |
| PA-06 | D+4 | GOP | No | 2002 | 48% | 52% | Manan Trivedi (D) | Jim Gerlach* (R) | Tossup |
| PA-07 | D+3 | Dem | Open | - | 60% | 40% | Bryan Lentz (D) | Patrick Meehan (R) | Tossup |
| PA-08 | D+2 | Dem | No | 2006 | 57% | 42% | Patrick Murphy* (D) | Mike Fitzpatrick (R) | Dem (57% in 2008) |
| PA-09 | R+17 | GOP | No | 2001 | 36% | 64% | Tom Conners (D) | Bill Shuster* (R) | GOP (64% in 2008) |
| PA-10 | R+8 | Dem | No | 2006 | 56% | 44% | Chris Carney* (D) | Thomas Marino (R) | Dem (56% in 2008) |
| PA-11 | D+4 | Dem | No | 1984 | 52% | 48% | Paul Kanjorski* (D) | Lou Barletta (R) | Dem (since 1984) |
| PA-12 | R+1 | Dem | No | 2010 | 54% | 43% | Mark Critz* (D) | Tim Burns (R) | Tossup |
| PA-13 | D+7 | Dem | No | 2004 | 63% | 35% | Allyson Schwartz* (D) | Carson Adcock (R) | Dem (63% in 2008) |
| PA-14 | D+19 | Dem | No | 1994 | 100% | 0% | Mike Doyle* (D) | Melissa Haluszczak (R) | Dem (since 1994) |
| PA-15 | D+2 | GOP | No | 2004 | 41% | 59% | John Callahan (D) | Charlie Dent* (R) | GOP (59% in 2008) |
| PA-16 | R+8 | GOP | No | 1996 | 39% | 56% | Lois Herr (D) | Joe Pitts* (R) | GOP (56% in 2008) |
| PA-17 | R+6 | Dem | No | 1992 | 64% | 36% | Tim Holden* (D) | Dave Argall (R) | Dem (64% in 2008) |
| PA-18 | R+6 | GOP | No | 2002 | 36% | 64% | Dan Connolly (D) | Tim Murphy* (R) | GOP (64% in 2008) |
| PA-19 | R+12 | GOP | No | 2000 | 33% | 67% | Ryan Sanders (D) | Todd Platts* (R) | GOP (67% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| RI-01 | D+13 | Dem | Open | - | 69% | 24% | Primary | Primary | Dem (open D+13) |
| RI-02 | D+9 | Dem | No | 2000 | 70% | 30% | Jim Langevin* (D) | Primary | Dem (70% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| SC-01 | R+10 | GOP | Open | - | 48% | 52% | Ben Frasier (D) | Tim Scott (R) | GOP (open R+10) |
| SC-02 | R+9 | GOP | No | 2001 | 46% | 54% | Robert Miller (D) | Joe Wilson* (R) | GOP (R+9) |
| SC-03 | R+17 | GOP | Open | - | 35% | 65% | Jane Ballard Dyer (D) | Jeff Duncan (R) | GOP (open R+17) |
| SC-04 | R+15 | GOP | Open | - | 37% | 60% | Paul Corden (D) | Trey Gowdy (R) | GOP (open R+15) |
| SC-05 | R+7 | Dem | No | 1982 | 62% | 37% | John Spratt* (D) | Mick Mulvaney (R) | Dem (62% in 2008) |
| SC-06 | D+12 | Dem | No | 1992 | 68% | 32% | Jim Clyburn* (D) | Jim Pratt (R) | Dem (68% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| SD-AL | R+9 | Dem | No | 2004 | 68% | 32% | Stephanie Herseth Sandlin* (D) | Kristi Noem (R) | Dem (68% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| TN-01 | R+21 | GOP | No | 2008 | 24% | 72% | Michael Clark (D) | Phil Roe* (R) | GOP (72% in 2008) |
| TN-02 | R+16 | GOP | No | 1998 | 22% | 78% | Dave Hancock (D) | Jimmy Duncan Jr.* (R) | GOP (78% in 2008) |
| TN-03 | R+13 | GOP | Open | - | 28% | 69% | John Wolfe Jr. (D) | Charles Fleischmann (R) | GOP (open R+13) |
| TN-04 | R+13 | Dem | No | 2002 | 59% | 38% | Lincoln Davis* (D) | Scott DesJarlais (R) | Dem (59% in 2008) |
| TN-05 | D+3 | Dem | No | 2002 | 66% | 31% | Jim Cooper* (D) | David Hall (R) | Dem (66% in 2008) |
| TN-06 | R+13 | Dem | Open | - | 100% | 0% | Brett Carter (D) | Diane Black (R) | GOP (open R+13) |
| TN-07 | R+18 | GOP | No | 2002 | 31% | 69% | Greg Rabidoux (D) | Marsha Blackburn* (R) | GOP (69% in 2008) |
| TN-08 | R+6 | Dem | Open | - | 100% | 0% | Roy Herron (D) | Stephen Fincher (R) | GOP (open R+6) |
| TN-09 | D+23 | Dem | No | 2006 | 100% | 0% | Steve Cohen* (D) | Charlotte Bergmann (R) | Dem (D+23) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| TX-01 | R+21 | GOP | No | 2004 | 0% | 100% | (No Democrat) | Louie Gohmert* (R) | GOP (unopposed) |
| TX-02 | R+13 | GOP | No | 2004 | 0% | 100% | (No Democrat) | Ted Poe* (R) | GOP (unopposed) |
| TX-03 | R+14 | GOP | No | 1991 | 38% | 60% | John Lingenfelder (D) | Sam Johnson* (R) | GOP (60% in 2008) |
| TX-04 | R+21 | GOP | No | 1980 | 29% | 69% | VaLinda Hathcox (D) | Ralph Hall* (R) | GOP (69% in 2008) |
| TX-05 | R+17 | GOP | No | 2002 | 0% | 100% | Tom Berry (D) | Jeb Hensarling* (R) | GOP (R+17) |
| TX-06 | R+15 | GOP | No | 1984 | 36% | 62% | David Kozad (D) | Joe Barton* (R) | GOP (62% in 2008) |
| TX-07 | R+13 | GOP | No | 2000 | 42% | 56% | (No Democrat) | John Culberson* (R)* | GOP (unopposed) |
| TX-08 | R+25 | GOP | No | 1996 | 25% | 72% | Kent Hargett (D) | Kevin Brady* (R) | GOP (72% in 2008) |
| TX-09 | D+22 | Dem | No | 2004 | 100% | 0% | Al Green* (D) | Steve Mueller (R) | Dem (D+22) |
| TX-10 | R+10 | GOP | No | 2004 | 43% | 54% | Ted Ankrum (D) | Michael McCaul* (R) | GOP (R+10) |
| TX-11 | R+28 | GOP | No | 2004 | 0% | 100% | James Quillan (D) | Mike Conaway* (R) | GOP (R+28) |
| TX-12 | R+16 | GOP | No | 1996 | 31% | 67% | Tracey Smith (D) | Kay Granger* (R) | GOP (67% in 2008) |
| TX-13 | R+29 | GOP | No | 1994 | 22% | 78% | (No Democrat) | Mac Thornberry* (R) | GOP (unopposed) |
| TX-14 | R+18 | GOP | No | 1996 | 0% | 100% | Robert Pruett (D) | Ron Paul* (R) | GOP (since 1996) |
| TX-15 | D+3 | Dem | No | 1996 | 66% | 32% | Ruben Hinojosa* (D) | Eddie Zamora (R) | Dem (66% in 2008) |
| TX-16 | D+10 | Dem | No | 1996 | 100% | 0% | Silvestre Reyes* (D) | Tim Besco (R) | Dem (since 1996) |
| TX-17 | R+20 | Dem | No | 1990 | 53% | 45% | Chet Edwards* (D) | Bill Flores (R) | Dem (since 1990) |
| TX-18 | D+24 | Dem | No | 1994 | 77% | 21% | Sheila Jackson Lee* (D) | John Faulk (R) | Dem (77% in 2008) |
| TX-19 | R+26 | GOP | No | 2002 | 25% | 72% | Andy Wilson (D) | Randy Neugebauer* (R) | GOP (72% in 2008) |
| TX-20 | D+8 | Dem | No | 1998 | 72% | 25% | Charlie Gonzalez* (D) | Clayton Trotter (R) | Dem (72% in 2008) |
| TX-21 | R+14 | GOP | No | 1986 | 0% | 100% | Laney Melnick (D) | Lamar Smith* (R) | GOP (since 1986) |
| TX-22 | R+13 | GOP | No | 2008 | 45% | 53% | Kesha Rogers (D) | Pete Olson* (R) | GOP (R+13) |
| TX-23 | R+4 | Dem | No | 2006 | 56% | 42% | Ciro Rodriguez* (D) | Quico Canseco (R) | Dem (56% in 2008) |
| TX-24 | R+11 | GOP | No | 2004 | 41% | 56% | (No Democrat) | Kenny Marchant* (R) | GOP (unopposed) |
| TX-25 | D+6 | Dem | No | 1994 | 66% | 30% | Lloyd Doggett* (D) | Donna Campbell (R) | Dem (66% in 2008) |
| TX-26 | R+13 | GOP | No | 2002 | 37% | 60% | Neil Durrance (D) | Michael Burgess* (R) | GOP (60% in 2008) |
| TX-27 | R+2 | Dem | No | 1982 | 58% | 38% | Solomon Ortiz* (D) | Blake Farenthold (R) | Dem (58% in 2008) |
| TX-28 | R+ | Dem | No | 2004 | 69% | 29% | Henry Cuellar* (D) | Bryan Underwood (R) | Dem (69% in 2008) |
| TX-29 | D+8 | Dem | No | 1992 | 75% | 24% | Gene Green* (D) | Roy Morales (R) | Dem (75% in 2008) |
| TX-30 | D+27 | Dem | No | 1992 | 82% | 16% | Eddie Bernice Johnson* (D) | Stephen Broden (R) | Dem (82% in 2008) |
| TX-31 | R+14 | GOP | No | 2002 | 37% | 60% | (No Democrat) | John Carter* (R) | GOP (unopposed) |
| TX-32 | R+8 | GOP | No | 1996 | 41% | 57% | Grier Raggio (D) | Pete Sessions* (R) | GOP (57% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| UT-01 | R+21 | GOP | No | 2002 | 31% | 65% | Morgan Bowen (D) | Rob Bishop* (R) | GOP (65% in 2008) |
| UT-02 | R+15 | Dem | No | 2000 | 63% | 35% | Jim Matheson* (D) | Morgan Philpot (R) | Dem (63% in 2008) |
| UT-03 | R+26 | GOP | No | 2008 | 28% | 66% | Karen Hyer (D) | Jason Chaffetz* (R) | GOP (66% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| VA-01 | R+7 | GOP | No | 2007 | 42% | 57% | Krystal Ball (D) | Rob Wittman* (R) | GOP (57% in 2008) |
| VA-02 | R+5 | Dem | No | 2008 | 52% | 48% | Glenn Nye* (D) | Scott Rigell (R) | Tossup |
| VA-03 | D+20 | Dem | No | 1992 | 100% | 0% | Bobby Scott* (D) | Chuck Smith (R) | Dem (since 1992) |
| VA-04 | R+4 | GOP | No | 2001 | 40% | 60% | Wynne LeGrow (D) | Randy Forbes* (R) | GOP (60% in 2008) |
| VA-05 | R+5 | Dem | No | 2008 | 50% | 49% | Tom Perriello* (D) | Robert Hurt (R) | Tossup (1% diff in 2008) |
| VA-06 | R+12 | GOP | No | 1992 | 37% | 61% | (No Democrat) | Bob Goodlatte* (R) | GOP (unopposed) |
| VA-07 | R+9 | GOP | No | 2000 | 37% | 63% | Rick Waugh (D) | Eric Cantor* (R) | GOP (63% in 2008) |
| VA-08 | D+16 | Dem | No | 1990 | 68% | 30% | Jim Moran* (D) | Patrick Murray (R) | Dem (68% in 2008) |
| VA-09 | R+11 | Dem | No | 1982 | 100% | 0% | Rick Boucher* (D) | Morgan Griffith (R) | Dem (since 1982) |
| VA-10 | R+2 | GOP | No | 1980 | 39% | 59% | Jeff Barnett (D) | Frank Wolf* (R) | GOP (59% in 2008) |
| VA-11 | D+2 | Dem | No | 2008 | 55% | 43% | Gerry Connolly* (D) | Keith Fimian (R) | Dem (55% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| VT-AL | D+13 | Dem | No | 2006 | 100% | 0% | Peter Welch* (D) | Paul Beaudry (R) | Dem (D+13) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| WA-01 | D+9 | Dem | No | 1998 | 69% | 31% | Jay Inslee* (D) | James Watkins (R) | Dem (69% in 2008) |
| WA-02 | D+3 | Dem | No | 2000 | 63% | 37% | Rick Larsen* (D) | John Koster (R) | Dem (63% in 2008) |
| WA-03 | D+ | Dem | Open | - | 64% | 36% | Denny Heck (D) | Jaime Herrera (R) | Tossup |
| WA-04 | R+13 | GOP | No | 1994 | 37% | 63% | Jay Clough (D) | Doc Hastings* (R) | GOP (63% in 2008) |
| WA-05 | R+7 | GOP | No | 2004 | 35% | 65% | Daryl Romeyn (D) | Cathy McMorris Rodgers* (R) | GOP (65% in 2008) |
| WA-06 | D+5 | Dem | No | 1976 | 67% | 33% | Norm Dicks* (D) | Doug Cloud (R) | Dem (67% in 2008) |
| WA-07 | D+31 | Dem | No | 1988 | 84% | 16% | Jim McDermott* (D) | (No Republican) | Dem (unopposed) |
| WA-08 | D+3 | GOP | No | 2004 | 49% | 50% | Suzan DelBene (D) | Dave Reichert* (R) | Tossup (1% diff in 2008) |
| WA-09 | D+5 | Dem | No | 1996 | 66% | 34% | Adam Smith* (D) | Dick Muri (R) | Dem (66% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| WI-01 | R+2 | GOP | No | 1998 | 35% | 64% | John Heckenlively (D) | Paul Ryan* (R) | GOP (64% in 2008) |
| WI-02 | D+15 | Dem | No | 1998 | 69% | 31% | Tammy Baldwin* (D) | Primary | Dem (69% in 2008) |
| WI-03 | D+4 | Dem | No | 1996 | 63% | 35% | Ron Kind* (D) | Primary | Dem (63% in 2008) |
| WI-04 | D+22 | Dem | No | 2004 | 100% | 0% | Gwen Moore* (D) | Primary | Dem (D+22) |
| WI-05 | R+12 | GOP | No | 1978 | 0% | 100% | Todd Kolosso (D) | Jim Sensenbrenner* (R) | GOP (since 1978) |
| WI-06 | R+4 | GOP | No | 1979 | 36% | 64% | Joseph Kallas (D) | Tom Petri* (R) | GOP (64% in 2008) |
| WI-07 | D+3 | Dem | Open | - | 61% | 39% | Primary | Primary | Tossup |
| WI-08 | R+2 | Dem | No | 2006 | 54% | 46% | Steve Kagen* (D) | Primary | Tossup |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| WV-01 | R+9 | Dem | Open | - | 100% | 0% | Mike Oliverio (D) | David McKinley (R) | GOP (open R+9) |
| WV-02 | R+8 | GOP | No | 2000 | 43% | 57% | Virginia Lynch-Graf (D) | Shelley Capito* (R) | GOP (57% in 2008) |
| WV-03 | R+6 | Dem | No | 1976 | 67% | 33% | Nick Rahall* (D) | Eliott Maynard (R) | Dem (67% in 2008) |
| CD | PVI | Inc. | Open? | Elected | D '08 | R '08 | Democrat | Republican | Prediction |
| WY-AL | R+20 | GOP | No | 2008 | 43% | 53% | David Wendt (D) | Cynthia Lummis* (R) | GOP (R+20) |