Enthusiasm Gap Narrows to 14%
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A Marist poll
among registered voters gives Democrats the edge 47% to 41%. Among likely voters, it is a tie 46% to 46%. However
49% of Republicans are enthusiastic about voting vs. only 35% of Democrats, a 14% gap. While a disaster for the
Democrats, it is at least better than in Marist's previous poll when the gap was 23%. Many other polls have
shown the same thing. Among registered voters, Democrats actually lead Republicans, but Republicans are much more
fired up and ready to vote. The expected Republican wave on Tuesday will largely be caused by Democrats staying at home
and not bothering to vote.
Alaska is a perpetual source of political surprises, whether is it the governor being tapped to be a Vice Presidential
nominee, the same governor later quitting her job midterm, an unknown lawyer beating an incumbent senator in a primary,
and now this: that lawyer, tea party favorite Joe Miller (R), is now third in a new
poll.
Write-in candidate Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) is at 34%, Sitka mayor Scott McAdams (D) is at 29%, and Miller is at 23%.
This is a very significant development since anyone who followed the Coleman-Franken court battle in Minnesota knows that
many voters aren't even capable of filling out a normal ballot correctly. When they must fill in the oval and then write in
the name of the candidate in a more-or-less comprehensible way, there are going to be vast number of invalid ballots. If McAdams
is second, he has a shot at winning due to many of Murkowski's votes being declared invalid. In particular, the voter must
fill in the oval next to "Write in." Failure to fill in the oval will result in the write-in vote not registering on the optical
scanners. The write-in votes will only be counted if the count of write-in votes is more than the leading candidate or not
worse than half a percent below the winner. If the write-in votes are not counted at all, the leading candidate wins.
Run-Down of the Governors' Races
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While our primary focus has been on Congress, there are also 37 governorships up for grabs this year.
Here are the polls released in the past three days for the gubernatorial races.
Alabama |
Robert Bentley (R) |
48% |
Ron Sparks (D) |
35% |
U. of Southern Alabama |
California |
Jerry Brown (D) |
49% |
Meg Whitman (R) |
39% |
Field |
California |
Jerry Brown (D) |
46% |
Meg Whitman (R) |
38% |
SurveyUSA |
California |
Jerry Brown (D) |
50% |
Meg Whitman (R) |
42% |
Suffolk U. |
California |
Jerry Brown (D) |
51% |
Meg Whitman (R) |
44% |
Opinion Research |
California |
Jerry Brown (D) |
53% |
Meg Whitman (R) |
42% |
PPP |
Colorado |
John Hickenlooper (D) |
48% |
Tom Tancredo (C) |
RBI |
34% |
Colorado |
John Hickenlooper (D) |
51% |
Tom Tancredo (C) |
37% |
Opinion Research |
Connecticut |
Dan Malloy (D) |
45% |
Tom Foley (R) |
45% |
Merriman |
Florida |
Alex Sink (D) |
45% |
Rick Scott (R) |
41% |
Quinnipiac U. |
Florida |
Alex Sink (D) |
46% |
Rick Scott (R) |
43% |
Mason-Dixon |
Florida |
Rick Scott (R) |
48% |
Alex Sink (D) |
45% |
Rasmussen |
Georgia |
Nathan Deal (R) |
47% |
Roy barnes (D) |
41% |
Insider Advantage |
Hawaii |
Niel Abercrombie (D) |
50% |
Duke Aionoa (R) |
45% |
Merriman |
Idaho |
Butch Otter (R) |
52% |
Keither Allred (D) |
30% |
Mason-Dixon |
Maine |
Paul LePage (R) |
40% |
Libby Mitchell (D) |
26% |
Rasmussen |
Michigan |
Rick Snyder (R) |
53% |
Virg Bernero (D) |
35% (D) |
Detroit News |
Minnesota |
Mark Dayton (D) |
41% |
Tom Emmer (R) |
29% |
U. of Minnesota |
Nevada |
Brian Sandoval (R) |
58% |
Rory Reid (D) |
35% |
Rasmussen |
New Mexico |
Susana Martinez (R) |
52% |
Diane Denish (D) |
42% |
Rasmussen |
New York |
Andrew Cuomo (D) |
55% |
Carl Paladino (R) |
35% |
Quinnipiac U. |
Ohio |
John Kasich (R) |
48% |
Ted Strickland (D) |
44% |
Rasmussen |
Ohio |
John Kasich (R) |
49% |
Ted Strickland (D) |
44% |
SurveyUSA |
Oklahoma |
Mary Fallin (R) |
56% |
Jari Askins (D) |
38% |
Sooner Poll |
Oregon |
Chris Dudley (R) |
49% |
John Kitzhaber (D) |
46% |
Rasmussen |
Pennsylvania |
Tom Corbett (R) |
51% |
Dan Onorato (D) |
35% |
Franklin & Marshall Coll. |
Rhode Island |
Lincoln Chafee (I) |
35% |
John Robitaille (R) |
28% |
NBC |
Wisconsin |
Scott Walker (R) |
52% |
Tom Barrett (D) |
42% |
Rasmussen |
Bill Clinton Pushed Meek to Exit the Florida Senatorial Race
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As expected, the Democrats tried to push Kendrick Meek out of the Senate race and get him to endorse Charlie Crist, who
might caucus with the Democrats. The
pusher-in-chief
was Bill Clinton. Apparently Meek agreed twice but then changed his mind. Had he agreed, he would have been a hero to Democrats.
Now he will be crushed and vanish from politics.
DCCC Trying to Build a Firewall
Permalink
The DCCC is trying to save Democrats' majority in the House by
pouring money
into five races they think they can win. These are NJ-03 (John Adler),
PA-08 (Patrick Murphy), PA-07 (Joe Sestak's open seat), OH-18 (Zack Space), and MA-10 (Bill Delahunt's open seat).
The first four of these are indeed battlegrounds, but the fact that the DCCC has to spend money to defend a D+5 district
in Massachusetts is a big warning sign.
Schumer and Durbin Ready To Do Battle if Reid Falls
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The vultures are circling. As more and more polls show that majority leader Harry Reid might lose his race to Sharron Angle (R), the
#2 Democrat in the Senate, Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), and the #3 Democrat, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), are
preparing for an election--leader
of the Senate Democrats. It is an election that will have only about 50 or 51 likely voters: the Senate Democrats.
Durbin currently outranks Schumer, but that will not stop the ambitious Schumer. As chairman of the DSCC in 2006 and 2008, he helped
14 Democrats take over Republican seats. When the time comes, Schumer will surely remind them they owe their jobs to him. That's
14 votes right off the bat. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand also owes her seat to him, making 15. That means Schumer needs only about 11 or 12
more votes. He is not taking any chances. In his own reelection campaign, the polls put him 20-30% ahead, so he doesn't need his
money and is doling it out to other Democrats. While this is not exactly vote buying, everyone in the Senate understands very well
what the message is: "When you needed help, I was there for you." So far Schumer has given out $4 million of his own funds to other
Democrats. Durbin doesn't have that kind of money to give away, but he does outrank Schumer and is more user friendly than the
abrasive Schumer. If Reid falls, the Durbin-Schumer contest will start Nov. 3. It is unlikely Rasmussen or anyone else will do polls
on it, unfortunately.
Today's Polls: AK CA CT DE FL KY OK OR PA UT WA WI + 14 House Races
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Alaska |
Scott McAdams |
29% |
Joe Miller |
23% |
Lisa Murkowski |
34% |
Oct 25 |
Oct 26 |
Hays Research |
California |
Barbara Boxer* |
49% |
Carly Fiorina |
46% |
|
|
Oct 27 |
Oct 27 |
Rasmussen |
Connecticut |
Richard Blumenthal |
52% |
Linda McMahon |
44% |
|
|
Oct 24 |
Oct 26 |
Merriman River Group |
Delaware |
Chris Coons |
57% |
Christine O-Donnell |
36% |
|
|
Oct 20 |
Oct 26 |
Fairleigh Dickinson U. |
Florida |
Kendrick Meek |
15% |
Marco Rubio |
42% |
Charlie Crist |
35% |
Oct 18 |
Oct 24 |
Quinnipiac U. |
Kentucky |
Jack Conway |
43% |
Rand Paul |
52% |
|
|
Oct 24 |
Oct 27 |
SurveyUSA |
Oklahoma |
Jim Rogers |
24% |
Tom Coburn* |
67% |
|
|
Oct 18 |
Oct 23 |
Sooner Poll |
Oregon |
Ron Wyden* |
53% |
Jim Huffman |
42% |
|
|
Oct 25 |
Oct 25 |
Rasmussen |
Pennsylvania |
Joe Sestak |
40% |
Pat Toomey |
48% |
|
|
Oct 24 |
Oct 27 |
Muhlenberg Coll. |
Utah |
Sam Granato |
32% |
Mike Lee |
48% |
|
|
Oct 25 |
Oct 27 |
Mason Dixon |
Washington |
Patty Murray* |
47% |
Dino Rossi |
48% |
|
|
Oct 26 |
Oct 26 |
Rasmussen |
Wisconsin |
Russ Feingold* |
44% |
Ron Johnson |
48% |
|
|
Oct 24 |
Oct 27 |
We the People |
Wisconsin |
Russ Feingold* |
44% |
Ron Johnson |
53% |
|
|
Oct 26 |
Oct 28 |
PPP |
CT-01 |
John Larson* |
56% |
Ann Brickley |
38% |
|
|
Oct 24 |
Oct 26 |
Merriman River Group |
DE-AL* |
John Carney |
57% |
Glen Urquhart |
36% |
|
|
Oct 25 |
Oct 27 |
Fairleigh Dickinson U. |
HI-01 |
Colleen Hanabusa |
50% |
Charles Djou* |
43% |
|
|
Oct 23 |
Oct 23 |
Merriman River Group |
IN-03 |
Tom Hayhurst |
32% |
Marlin Stutzman |
57% |
|
|
Oct 21 |
Oct 25 |
SurveyUSA |
KY-03 |
John Yarmuth* |
50% |
Todd Lally |
46% |
|
|
Oct 21 |
Oct 25 |
SurveyUSA |
MI-07 |
Mark Schauer* |
50% |
Tim Walberg |
43% |
|
|
Oct 24 |
Oct 26 |
Marketing Research |
MN-01 |
Tim Walz* |
50% |
Randy Demmer |
41% |
|
|
Oct 22 |
Oct 26 |
SurveyUSA |
NC-02 |
Bob Etheridge* |
41% |
Renee Ellmers |
46% |
|
|
Oct 21 |
Oct 24 |
SurveyUSA |
NJ-12 |
Rush Holt* |
51% |
Scott Sipprelle |
43% |
|
|
Oct 25 |
Oct 27 |
Monmouth U. |
NY-23 |
Bill Owens* |
40% |
Matt Doheny |
37% |
|
|
Oct 23 |
Oct 26 |
Siena Coll. |
PA-10 |
Chris Carney* |
38% |
Thomas Marino |
47% |
|
|
Oct 24 |
Oct 25 |
Critical Insights |
PA-11 |
Paul Kanjorski* |
47% |
Lou Barletta |
39% |
|
|
Oct 24 |
Oct 25 |
Critical Insights |
VA-05 |
Tom Perriello* |
43% |
Robert Hurt |
51% |
|
|
Oct 27 |
Oct 27 |
SurveyUSA |
WA-03 |
Denny Heck |
46% |
Jaime Herrera |
50% |
|
|
Oct 24 |
Oct 26 |
SurveyUSA |
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