Campaign Spending May Reach 4 Billion Dollars     Permalink

The Center for Responsive Politics is estimating that this year the campaigns may spend about $4 billion. So far, the candidates themselves have raised $1.7 billion, the party committees have raised $1.1 billion, and outside groups have raised $400 million. This comes to a total of $3.2 billion so far, but the last 2 weeks have been a frenzy of raising money and buying ads. The candidates are likely to pass the $2 billion mark by themselves. Already the expenditures have passed the 2000 campaign, which was a presidential election year.

Another source of campaign funding is other politicians. House majority leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) has given the DCCC $1.75 million this cycle and DCCC chairman Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) has donated $1.6 million to the group he runs. Another big Democratic donor is Henry Waxman (D-CA), who has ponied up $850,000 so far. It is legal (and expected) that incumbent members of the House give some of the money they raise to the DCCC or NRSC, depending on which party they are in. Likewise, senators are expected to turn over some of their cash to the DSCC or NRSC. Generally it is members who are good fundraisers but are in no danger themselves who are the biggest contributors to the party committees.

The Hill: GOP to Set to Capture the House     Permalink

The Hill, a Washington Newspaper that follows what is going on in Congress, has released the final set of its House polls, which now total 42 districts. The polls were conducted by Penn Schoen Berland (see below). Based on their survey of 17,000 likely voters, The Hill is now predicting the Republicans will pick up something like 50 or so seats, enough to get a majority in the House.

Among other findings, long-term Democratic congressmen such as Allen Boyd (D-FL), Chet Edwards (D-TX), and John Spratt (D-SC) are all down by double digits. Also, an astounding 46% view the incumbency of their own representative as a negative factor. Normally, people like their own representative. They just don't like anyone else's. However, this 46% figure exhibits a strong partisan divide with Republicans opposing their representative 65% to 17% and Democrats supporting him or her by 67% to 16%. That is not entirely surprising, though, since the 42 districts polled are all districts viewed as likely to flip, and most of them have a Democratic incumbent.

Democratic Coalition Drifting Apart     Permalink

Key parts of the coalition that brought Barack Obama and the Democrats to power in 2008 are moving towards the Republicans according to a new NY Times/CBS poll. Women, independents, Roman Catholics, and the poor, all groups that voted strongly for the Democrats in 2008 and formed the backbone of the Democrats majority, are less solidly Democratic now. Many people are so unhappy with the state of the nation that they just want to get rid of the people in power. This poll agrees with many others that show people angry with the Democrats and prepared to vote for the Republicans--even though they hate the Republicans even more than they hate the Democrats. It is not very logical but shows that many voters are so angry at Washington that they are willing to try anything, even things they have tried before and know don't work.

To make this picture even more confusing, another poll shows that while people are angry with Obama, that doesn't mean they won't vote for him in 2012. A clear majority of all voters said that a Republican victory this year would not affect how they vote in 2012. Among independents, it was 62%. In other words, people are voting Republican this year to send the Democrats a message, not because they like the Republicans or intend to vote for them in the future.

Politician Speaks the Truth     Permalink

A politician speaking the unvarnished truth is so rare that it is actually newsworthy. Yesterday, Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell was asked what his main goal for the next two years is and he said: "the single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president." Now recall that McConnell is not chairman of the Republican National Committee, for whom this could be reasonably said to be his day job. McConnell is head of the Republican caucus in the Senate and would normally have talked about his legislative goals, such as repealing the healh-insurance law, seeing that the Bush tax cuts are made permanent, etc. But in an unguarded moment, he actually said what he was thinking. The DNC instantly seized on this remark and made a video out of it.

Palin Endorsement Map Now Available     Permalink

If you have lost track of who former Alaska governor Sarah Palin has endorsed and how well they have done, the Washington Post has produced a nice interactive map showing who her tweets have been supporting and how well they have worked. She has endorsed 56 candidates. Her won-lost record would be the envy of any major-league baseball player: she's batting .776 with 7 more at bats to go.

Today's Polls: AR CA CO GA ID IL KY LA MD NV NY OH PA WV + 19 House polls     Permalink

New Senate Polls

New House Polls

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