The Show Goes On

It's "Democrats in disarray" time. Again. Joe Biden gave an adequate interview with George Stephanopoulos last week, but that hasn't calmed the Democrats, in part because only 8 million people watched it (vs. 51 million who watched the debate). More and more Democrats are calling for him to withdraw from the race. On Friday, Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA), who is a moderate, announced in public that he was organizing a group of Democratic senators to have a gentle talk with Biden about what they see as an upcoming disaster (hint, hint).

On Saturday, Rep. Angie Craig (DFL-MN) became the first sorta-battleground representative to openly call for Biden to throw in the towel. She has skin in the game (because her district is D+1). Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-TX) has also called for Biden to drop out, but his district is D+20, so he'll win even if the Democrats were to nominate the soon-to-be-unemployed Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) for president. Also openly calling for Biden to call it a career are Reps. Raúl Grijalva (D-AZ, D+15 district), Seth Moulton (D-MA, D+11 district), and Mike Quigley (D-IL, D+18 district). There could be an emerging pattern here. It reminds us of the "Leavers" and "Remainers" in the U.K. a couple of years ago.

For what it is worth, polling guru Nate Silver has also called for Biden to end his candidacy. He said that Biden gave an incoherent answer to George Stephanopoulos' question about how he can continue when the polls are so bad for him. Even though Silver no longer works for ABC News, he no doubt closely follows the FiveThirtyEight daily simulation, which currently has Trump winning 500 times out of 1,000 runs and Biden winning 500. Note that Silver's new prediction model, which he keeps behind a paywall, has generally been more pessimistic, and—the last time he shared the numbers publicly—had Donald Trump at about 60% to win.

Soon-to-be Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA) was on NBC News' Meet the Press yesterday, and praised Kamala Harris. He said: "I think she has the experience, the judgment, the leadership ability to be an extraordinary president." He also said she could beat Trump overwhelmingly. Gentle hint there, maybe?

Yesterday, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) had a video meeting with the ranking members of all the House committees. No doubt he will quietly inform Biden of what they think. What is special about them is they are more focused on House races than Biden is. They may also have a better take on whether Biden or Kamala Harris would help the Democrats capture the House. If Donald Trump wins, it will be absolutely essential for the Democrats (and the country) that they hold onto at least one chamber of Congress, and the House is probably easier because the Senate map is so terrible for the blue team.

Also in the works is a project to collect signatures on a letter to Biden from as many Democrats as possible, urging him to withdraw gracefully and go down in the history books as the first president since George Washington who put country over self. Well, OK, a couple of others—like Lyndon Johnson—bowed out voluntarily, but that was because they thought they would lose. Biden thinks he can win.

Despite all these less-than-subtle hints, Biden is doubling down, at least in public. So are his allies. Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) said that the Democrats need to "get a spine or grow a set." Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) said Biden is "who our country needs." Sen Chris Coons (D-DE) said he can't wait to campaign for Biden.

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT), a Biden supporter, said that Biden needs to get out in front of the voters to show that he is still up to the job. Biden got the message and yesterday spoke at a Black church in northwest Philadelphia and then to union members in Harrisburg. He understands that Pennsylvania is a must-win state, so this is his tenth campaign visit and he will continue to go there many more times if he stays in.

We don't know how this will play out. Nobody does, probably not even Biden. He doesn't know how many Democratic senators, representatives, governors, donors and others whose opinion he respects will privately or publicly tell him "the time has come, the walrus said."

One thing playing out in the background is that there is nary a peep from Donald Trump or his surrogates. They could be screaming from the rooftops that Biden is totally senile and can't go to the bathroom without Jill helping him. They are not. As in the Sherlock Holmes story "The Adventure of Silver Blaze," the key may be the politician who did not bark. Trump clearly wants to run against Biden, since that story line is simple: "He is old and demented." That would not work against Kamala Harris. Sure, they will try to place her somewhere to the left of Leon Trotsky, but she will respond that she was a prosecutor, first as Alameda County DA, then as San Francisco DA, then as California AG, and that she put plenty of criminals like Trump in prison. The contrast of a prosecutor vs. a felon is not one Trump wants. Also, as an observant Catholic, Biden is uncomfortable talking about abortion 24/7. Harris has no such inhibitions. Trump may intuitively understand that while Harris would lose some working-class white men, she might be able to make up for it among young voters, women, and minorities in general.

You know who is also quiet as a (dead) mouse? Harris herself. She went to Essence Fest, a cultural festival for Black women, in New Orleans Saturday. She didn't say a word about Biden. Mum's the word. She did talk politics, though—about getting people to vote and the need for someone to beat Trump. Of course, she has to be super careful. One bad word about Biden and thousands of people would pounce on her on social media, claiming she was disloyal. She can't have that, especially since she could end up being the nominee. She could have spent her time there touting Biden. But she didn't do that either, since it is to her advantage that he drops out, but she has to pretend she wants him to stay in at all costs. It's a tough position to be in. It's like Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) rooting for Trump to win so he can be the voice of the opposition. At all costs, he has to avoid people thinking that he wants Trump to win. Such is the nature of politics. Sometimes you must fervently deny what you actually want. (V)

Would It Even Be Possible for the Democrats to Replace Biden Now?

There have been arguments floating around that it would be technically and/or legally impossible to replace Joe Biden as the top of the Democratic ticket already. None of these are true. One biggie is what happens to all the money in the Biden campaign account? According to Stetson University law professor Ciara Torres-Spelliscy, FEC rules clearly allow any candidate to transfer an unlimited amount of money to a party committee. So the Biden campaign could give every penny it's got to the DNC, which could then spend it as it wishes. It would probably spend most of it helping the presidential nominee, but there is a point of diminishing returns. Having television viewers see 15 ads per night probably isn't any more effective than having them see 12 ads per night. The rest of the money could go to candidates in tight Senate and House races, where it could be more helpful.

Another argument being batted around is that in some states it is too late for anyone else to get on the ballot. This rumor probably got started by someone who observed that Ohio had a law stating that parties can get their candidates on the ballot only if they nominate them 90 days before the election. The deadline this year was Aug. 7 and the Democratic national convention starts Aug. 19. But Gov. Mike DeWine (R-OH) convened a special session of the state legislature, which extended the deadline to Aug. 23. Other than this, it is obviously impossible for any state to lock Biden in before he has even been nominated. Of course, once the nomination is official and ballots start going to the printer, things get much iffier.

So technically, Biden has about 5 weeks to make up his mind. Politically, it would be foolish to wait anywhere near that long as a replacement would have to start introducing herself or himself to the country, doing interviews, holding rallies, raising money, and all that kind of stuff. Getting going fast would be especially important if there were multiple candidates who wanted the nomination. The DNC could limit it to the vice president, sitting governors, and sitting members of Congress. But if there were multiple candidates, there would have to be debates to give them all exposure. Then the 4,000 delegates would have to vote. If there were dozens of ballots, it would be a disaster. The only way out would be to have a single ranked-choice vote, possibly with a debate at the convention for the top two finishers, followed by a final vote. It would be a political nightmare but not a legal one. On the plus side, the Democrats could harp over and over and over that Trump is too old and demented and should be removed from the ballot. There are tons of video footage showing him talking nonsense. (V)

Vance Hasn't Gotten the Call Yet

Since the Republican National Convention is next week, it is likely that Donald Trump will announce his running mate this week to maximize the amount of publicity it gets. Doing it at the convention would ruin a good PR opportunity and Trump is very conscious of PR. Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), one of the leading contenders for the bottom of the Republican ticket, also went on Meet the Press yesterday, and said Trump hasn't called him yet, one way or another. We are assuming that Trump has the decency to inform the runners-up that they didn't get the bucket of liquid, but maybe that's a big assumption. With Trump, it's all about him, not anyone else.

Vance would bring fire, and piles of Trumpism, to the campaign. He would love being an attack dog and is good at it. He is young and vigorous. He is also a straight white Christian male millionaire, something Trump supporters like very much. On the other hand, he would pull the ticket to the right and the Democrats would exploit that mercilessly. Also, in 2016, he was extremely negative about Trump. If he is the pick, count on videos from 2016 resurfacing. Additionally, there is a danger of him upstaging Trump, something Trump hates.

The other person thought to be at the top of Trump's list is Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND). He is bland and not much of an attack dog. However, he knows a lot of oil-company CEOs well and might be able to shake them down for contributions to the campaign. He could also toss in $100 million himself if Trump told him it's "pay to play." Burgum is a billionaire, which would allow the Democrats to talk about the "billionaires' ticket" vs. the "people's ticket." They probably are praying for that outcome, since Burgum doesn't actually bring much to the ticket in terms of new voters or new states.

Trump being Trump, he could surprise everyone and pick a woman or someone completely off the radar now, but the rumor mill is concentrating on these two, not on Sarah Palin or some equally weird choice. (V)

Abortion Initiatives Might Be on the Ballot in as Many as 12 States

Ballot measures protecting abortion have already been officially approved in six states: Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Nevada, New York, and South Dakota. Organizers in three other states say they have enough signatures already. These are Arkansas, Missouri, and Montana. Abortion rights groups are working on Arizona and Nebraska. In Pennsylvania, an initiative written by the previous state legislature that would ban the use of public funds for abortions needs to pass the legislature again to get on the ballot. In New York, a conservative judge threw the initiative out, so it is in the courts now.

Here is a rundown of where the abortion initiatives stand now. The process is ongoing, though.

State	Current limit	Summary	Status	Needed
Arizona	15 weeks	Allows abortions to viability	Submitted	50%
Arkansas	Banned	Allows abortions to 20 weeks	Submitted	50%
Colorado	No limit	Allow state funding	On the ballot	55%
Florida	6 weeks	Allows abortions to viability	On the ballot	60%
Maryland	To viability	Enshrines multiple reproductive rights	On the ballot	50%
Missouri	Banned	Allows abortions to viability	Submitted	50%
Montana	No limit	Allows abortions to viability	Submitted	50%
Nebraska 1	12 weeks	Allows abortions to viability; life of the mother later	Gathering signatures	50%
Nebraska 2	12 weeks	Grants fetuses personhood	Gathering signatures	50%
Nevada	12 weeks	Allows abortions to viability; life of the mother later	On the ballot	50%
New York	24 weeks	Allows abortions to viability	Conservative Judge killed it	50%
Pennsylvania	24 weeks	Denies public funding	In legislature	50%
South Dakota	Banned	Allows abortions to 26 weeks	On the ballot	50%

The abortion initiatives may get people to the polls, but there is no guarantee that they will all vote Democratic. In Florida, 60% is needed, so many Republicans will be needed. Politico did some interviews with moderate Republicans who will vote the Republican ticket but also vote for the abortion initiative. Due to the high 60% barrier set in the state Constitution, the initiative is probably on the edge. It might pass and it might not. But based on recent history, even in ruby-red South Dakota, it has a pretty good chance.

Republicans are also thinking about abortion, but for a different reason than the Democrats. Prominent anti-abortionists are concerned that Donald Trump may weaken the Republican platform on abortion to help his election campaign. They want the platform to state that Republicans support a federal law banning almost all abortions. What they are afraid of is Trump changing this to say that the issue should be left to the states and there should not be a federal law. Them's fightin' words to many anti-abortionists.

Of course, without 60 votes in the Senate, no law about abortion can pass the upper chamber unless the party in charge abolishes the filibuster. Nevertheless, a position that the matter is up to the states, changes it from a moral imperative to just another political issue, like tax rates. To the anti-abortionists, saying that it is up to the states is like saying banning murder is up to the states.

The platform will officially be adopted at the convention. Trump knows this and has made sure that all the members of the platform committee are loyalists who will do what he tells them to do. He wants to keep abortion hardliners off the committee. In addition, he wants the platform committee to meet in secret with no one except his hand-picked allies there. Having a floor fight over the platform is something he wants to prevent.

For the abortion fanatics, it will be take-it-or-leave-it. They are certainly not going to vote for any Democrat. Staying home will also help the Democrats, so they have no place to go. Trump knows this, so he can barrel forward and ignore them. (V)

Trump Dominates TikTok

Young voters get much, if not most, of their so-called news from TikTok. And Donald Trump dominates TikTok. It is not clear if the Chinese government actually supports Trump or Trumpers have organically taken over TikTok. It is possible that the Chinese government, which is not stupid, understands that Joe Biden is a far greater threat to them than Trump. Trump's response to China was to put a 10% tariff on imported t-shirts and other imports, something that American consumers pay. Biden's response was to get the CHIPS act passed, which resulted in Intel building a $100 billion chip plant in Ohio and the biggest Taiwanese semiconductor company building a $40 billion chip plant in Arizona. When completed, these will greatly reduce America's dependence on China for the most advanced chips. Oh, and Biden also badgered the Dutch government into forbidding ASML, the only company in the world that makes advanced chip-making machines, from selling any of them to China. China did not like this because it would probably take 10 years or more to catch up to today's technology, and ASML is not standing still. Which of these guys is a bigger threat to China? We ask, you answer. Oh wait, we already gave the answer. Sorry about spoiling the quiz.

Nominally, Trump leads Biden with 7.4 million TikTok followers to 400,000 for Biden, but many of Trump's followers could be Russian bots. Also, TikTok attracts a younger audience, and some followers of both candidates could be too young to vote. Naturally, with younger viewers, Biden's age of 81 is a big deal. Trump's age of 78 and many mental lapses doesn't seem to register with anyone. One thing Biden has going for him is the influencer Olivia Julianna (21), who has 670,000 followers—more than Biden—and she is not running for anything. She says that what she has seen on social media is not what the pundits are saying. It is more: "I'd rather vote for Grandpa Democracy than Grandpa Dictator."

One review of TikTok content shows that there is twice as much pro-Trump content as pro-Biden content. How come? One possible reason is that posters on the right have to take fire from posters on the left, but that's pretty much it. They expect that from the devil's spawn and it doesn't bother them. Similarly, posters on the left get flak from posters on the right, which they expect and can handle. However, they also get a lot of incoming fire from the left as well. Heaven help a leftist who is "wrong" on any issue, be it Israel, immigration, or the police. The right knows that it has to stick together to win. The left demands 100% conformance on every single issue. The core reason is that the Republicans are very homogeneous. A large fraction of them are churchgoing, rural (or semi-rural), working class white men (or their tradwives). The Democratic coalition is a mix of different constituencies, ranging from affluent white suburbanites with advanced university degrees to poor Black folks who dropped out of high school. It is not surprising that they are not always on the same page on every single issue. This divergence is inevitable but it would be better for the Party if the various groups agreed that the worst Democrat is better than the best Republican and laid off some of the criticism for the greater good.

Another reason that Trump trumps Biden on TikTok is that a lot of pro-Biden content is very policy-driven and intellectual. The pro-Trump content is more "I'm Donald Trump. Watch me do cool stuff with cool people." The pro-Trump content caters to the audience better. Another factor is that many young people are having trouble paying the rent. They don't want to hear about global logistics, supply chains, and comparative international inflation rates. They want to know what Biden is going to do about their problem. Another thing Biden supporters absolutely have to do is stop shaming young voters. Saying "Remember 1968? Remember 1924?" Well, they don't. Many are passionate but not well informed. Biden has to inform them, but in a user-friendly way. Interviews with young influencers about his life (What's it like to live in the White House? Is the food any good? What do you do for fun?) rather than talking about NATO or tax policy might help, but he doesn't get it. He really needs one or more young staffers who are really into TikTok and who are on this all day long. (V)

Cannon Grants Trump's Request for More Delay

The fallout from the Supreme Court's immunity case has wafted down to Florida, where Donald Trump has been indicted for possessing and hiding secret government documents he had no right to store in his bathroom (or anywhere else). Special Counsel Jack Smith has told Judge Aileen Cannon, a Trump appointee, that storing government documents after leaving office cannot be an official presidential act because he wasn't president when he hid them and refused to return them. Nevertheless, Cannon has granted Trump's request to delay the case further so she can study the immunity ruling and decide how it affects the case. For Trump, it doesn't matter how she rules. All that matters is that nothing happens before Nov. 5, 2024.

It may be true that the ruling could affect the case somewhat since Trump did pack the documents into boxes while he still was president and he could (and will) argue that management of classified documents is part of the president's job and thus an official act for which he is immune from prosecution. Smith may have to modify his indictment somewhat, to focus only on Trump's violating laws that state that secret documents must be held in secure facilities and that Trump violated those laws. There is still a case there, but the immunity ruling gives Trump what he wants—more delay. If Smith modifies the indictment to deal only with things Trump did after Jan. 20, 2021, at noon, most other judges would quickly rule that the ruling does not apply, but with Cannon, who appears to be in over her head and also Trump-friendly, taking a few weeks to decide matters might seem legitimate and could be defended later by saying it is her job to make sure all defendants can exercise all of their rights. (V)

Wisconsin Supreme Court Overrules Itself

When we were in school, we learned that the courts look at the Constitution, the law, and facts and then come to a conclusion. Sad to say, that is not how it works. The courts look at what the Republicans want, what the Democrats want, and then make the call, based on the partisan composition of the court in question. And it is not only the U.S. Supreme Court.

As evidence, we present to you the Wisconsin Supreme Court. In 2020, at the height of the pandemic, many states greatly expanded the use of absentee ballots and also the use of drop boxes. The latter was so voters could cast their absentee ballots by driving up to a drop box, getting out of their cars to deposit the ballots there, and then hightailing it home, without contacting any potentially infected other people. In Wisconsin, Republicans sued, saying that drop boxes were not protected 24/7, so there could be ballot stuffing at 3 a.m., ignoring the minor detail that each envelope must bear the correct signature of an eligible voter. In July 2022, the Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled 4-3 that drop boxes were not allowed outside election offices. Republicans cheered.

On Friday, the Wisconsin Supreme Court overturned its own decision of only 2 years ago by a vote of 4-3. The Court decided that the Court made a boo-boo in 2022 and that needed to be corrected now. In the decision, the Court noted that Wisconsin law states that absentee ballots must be mailed back or returned in person, but the law doesn't specify what locations the ballot can be returned to. Nowhere does it say that ballots must be returned to the county clerk's office. Absent a specific directive like that, it reasoned that the Wisconsin State Elections Commission had the authority to decide where ballots could be returned. And it said official drop boxes are fine.

How come the switcheroo? It's simple, the composition of the Wisconsin Supreme Court has changed since 2022. One of the conservatives has been replaced by a liberal. That changed the majority. Some Republicans said that the Court ought to have accepted "stare decisis" and left the old ruling in place, but given the U.S. Supreme Court's recent decision to throw the 40-year old Chevron case out of the window (not to mention the Dobbs decision, of course) because, well, they didn't like it, that is a pretty weak argument.

Will Republicans appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court? They might, but there are two arguments against this. First, this case hinges entirely on Wisconsin state law and the Supreme Court doesn't like to get involved in state-law cases unless there is a clear U.S. constitutional issue involved. The mechanics of how Wisconsin conducts its elections doesn't seem to fit. Second, Republicans have now done an about-face and are encouraging absentee voting. Does the Court want to get in the way? It might not and could deny cert if an appeal is made. (V)

European Allies Seek to Trump-Proof NATO

Skepticism is growing in Europe about the Democrats winning the presidential election. And the leaders of Europe know well that Donald Trump has threatened to pull out of NATO. The organization has 32 members, but the U.S. is far and away the strongest member with the biggest military and the most weapons. If Trump stopped supplying weapons to Ukraine, Russia could probably roll over it in weeks and incorporate it entirely into Russia. Then Vladimir Putin could try to gobble up the three small Baltic countries. They are members of NATO, so that would obligate the other members to defend them. Whether they successfully defend them without the U.S. is on the mind of the defense minister of every European NATO member. And none of them wants an all-out war in Europe. With the U.S. in NATO, Vladimir Putin would think 10 times before trying to take over the Baltic countries. Without the U.S. it might take only 1 think.

With all these things in mind, the European defense ministers of NATO countries will be huddling on defense strategies that don't rely on the (potentially unreliable) U.S. at this week's NATO summit. They are worried that Trump wouldn't be fazed by a ground war all over Europe, even though historically, such wars tend to quickly become world wars. Although the U.K. is not in the E.U., it is in NATO and has nuclear weapons. So does France. Last year, Germany said it was planning to build them, but so far there is no word about that. Discussing their nuclear plans is not something countries tend to do on TV until the weapons are working. Well, unless that country is North Korea.

Many NATO leaders are scared witless about Trump and doing what they can to deal with the possibility that they may have to fight Russia on their own. They are doing things like making sure their militaries are ready to go to war if need be and they have weapons stockpiled. But that aside, some of them are also worried about Biden. They are not so sure he will make it to Jan. 20, 2029, even if he wins the election. They are also concerned he might not be all-in for a war, if it came to that, and even less sure he could be an effective leader, both on the military front and the political front. For many of them, Kamala Harris is an unknown quantity.

The NATO summit will be in D.C. starting tomorrow. Biden is planning to attend, which also has political value for him. He will be in unscripted contact with world leaders and has the opportunity to act presidential and in charge. Of course, he has to do it. Dozens of European leaders and thousands of attendees will show up in D.C. this week. Traffic in D.C. will be completely snarled all week, with several metro stations closed and buses rerouted. Some streets will be closed and commuters blocked. However, it is not like a convention, so we are not sure if the alternate prostitutes will all make it, since the real action will be in Milwaukee next week and people will start to arrive there for the pregame show late this week and over the weekend. (V)

French Far Right Fails to Capture a Majority in the National Assembly

Yesterday, France had the second round of parliamentary elections. France uses a district system, like the U.S. House and British House of Commons. Any candidate who got 12.5% or more of registered voters in the first round was allowed to compete in the second round. However, Emmanuel Macron's centrist party and a coalition of leftist parties made a deal that in districts with both of their candidates running against a candidate from Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally, one of them would drop out to prevent the National Rally candidate from winning with a bare plurality. Therefore, over 200 candidates who qualified dropped out last week.

It worked. Sort of. The leftist coalition, called the New Popular Front, is projected to get 182 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly, the lower and far more powerful chamber of the French parliament. Macron's party, Ensemble ("together"), is expected to get 163 seats. The National Rally is expected to come in third with 143 seats. This is what the Brits would call a hung parliament. No one saw this result coming, in part because no one thought the center and left parties could get their act together and have the weaker candidate withdraw in nearly every district.

There were cheers on the streets of Paris as the projections came in. Parisians had zero interest in a far-right parliament, and that seems to have been averted. That doesn't mean everything is unicorns and rainbows. The center and left parties agree that having National Rally in power would be a disaster for France. The trouble is, that is practically the only thing they agree on. With three roughly equal blocs in the Assembly, governing is going to be nearly impossible for Macron, whose term runs until 2027.

As an aside, the French voting system is a bit antiquated. There is no absentee voting and no early voting. Nor are there voting machines. Each voter puts a paper ballot in an envelope and drops it into a transparent sealed box. When the polls close, the box is unsealed, the envelopes opened, and the votes are counted by hand. (V)

Today's Presidential Polls

It looks like Wisconsin will be close. Everything depends on whether the Democrats or Republicans do better on getting their voters to the polls.

State	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Start	End	Pollster
Wisconsin	43%	44%	Jun 30	Jul 02	SoCal Research

Click on a state name for a graph of its polling history.

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