Lots of Primaries Tomorrow

There has been a drip, drip, drip of primaries so far, but tomorrow the hose is turned up to full power, with seven states holding nominating contests. Here is a rundown:

• California: Many interesting contests will take place in California tomorrow, but two things that set it apart from all the other states are: (1) in most counties, every voter will be mailed a ballot, and (2) all candidates are on the same ballot, with the top two facing each other in a runoff in November, irrespective of party.
  
  The top race is for governor. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) is certain to be #1, but there is a lot of uncertainty about which Republican will be #2 and thus make the runoff. It hardly matters, since Newsom will win a second term easily against any Republican. Similarly, Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) will be #1 in the Senate race, with the only question being which hapless Republican will be #2. Same for Rob Bonta, the appointed AG. The Republicans have a shot at electing a controller, though, since the Democrats are having a free-for-all in that race.
  
  There are four or five interesting House races. In CA-27, Christy Smith (D) is trying to knock off Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA) again. The third time could be the charm. In CA-37, Karen Bass has given up her safe seat to run for mayor of Los Angeles. Most likely two Democrats will finish on top, shutting out the Republicans altogether in November in this district. This situation is one of the biggest complaints about the California system. In CA-40, Young Kim has been touted as a GOP star, but she will have to prove it in a new district. In CA-42, in Southern California, there is no incumbent, and the top two could be Democrats, as in CA-37. In CA-49 in San Diego, Rep. Mike Levin (D-CA) will certainly be #1, but he could draw a Republican challenger in November.
  
  Speaking of the L.A. mayoralty, Bass thought she would cruise to an easy victory when she threw her hat into the ring. However, wealthy real-estate developer Rick Caruso decided to mount a challenge, and so switched his registration from Republican to Democratic. He's been using his wealth to blanket the air with commercials. For more than a month, the commercials emphasized Caruso's love for the city, his commitment to addressing homelessness and crime, and his promise to take no money from "special interests." He made some headway, but polls still have Bass on top, so for the last week or two the Caruso ads have stopped featuring him, and have begun featuring her, slamming her as corrupt, and a career politician, and the like. In theory, if one candidate takes more than 50% of the vote, then it's over, because it's a municipal election and so follows different rules than a state or federal election. However, the odds are that nobody will claim 50%, and it will be Bass vs. Caruso in November.
  
  Another race that is attracting attention is the recall of San Francisco's D.A. Chesa Boudin. He is a progressive prosecutor, which means he doesn't like prosecuting. He tries to be nice to criminals. San Franciscans don't like that and he is in real danger of being recalled.
  
  
• Iowa: Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) will easily win the nomination for his eighth term, but who will the Democrat be? Former Rep. Abby Finkenauer is 33 and is running on a platform that the 88-year-old Grassley needs to be put out to pasture. Mike Franken (64) is a retired Navy admiral. Dr. Glenn Hurst (52) is a physician and not well known. Finkenauer is the favorite, but she has to hope that Grassley stumbles during the general election campaign.
  
  
• Mississippi: There are no races for senator or governor on tap. Republican incumbents are running in three of the House seats. They will all win. The other seat is that of Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-MS) and he will win, too. So not much to see here.
  
  
• Montana: Montana got a new House district, which occupies the western quarter of the state, including the cities of Missoula, Butte, and Bozeman. It is an open seat, of course. Former representative and Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke (R) is running, along with four other Republicans. However, Zinke has Donald Trump's backing and the others don't. The Democrats have a bunch of candidates and, with several large cities in the district, winning it is not impossible. One wild card here is that Montana has open primaries, so any voter can ask for either party's ballot. There has not been any public polling, so we don't what is likely to happen.
  
  
• New Jersey: A couple of House races are noteworthy here. In NJ-07, Tom Kean Jr., son of a former Republican governor, and minority leader of the state Senate, wants to move up to the U.S. House. He has to be careful not to alienate moderates while fending off conservative competitors. His strategy is apparently "don't say anything and don't debate anyone." Basically, just hide from his six opponents. Whoever wins will probably face the incumbent, Tom Malinowski, but in a redder district than Malinowski had in 2020. It is an affluent suburban district, and abortion and guns could be big issues in November.
  
  Kean isn't the only scion running. The son of Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ), Robert Menendez Jr. (D), is running for the House in NJ-08. All the state Democrats support him as the successor to Rep. Albio Sires (D). The district is very blue, so there will probably be a Menendez in both chambers of Congress next year.
  
  
• New Mexico: The Democrats hold the trifecta in New Mexico, but the Republicans would love to break it by knocking off Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham. Their top candidate is a former TV weatherman, Mark Ronchetti, but he has to beat back four other Republicans tomorrow to make it to November.
  
  
• South Dakota: Donald Trump would love to defeat Sen. John Thune (R-SD). Thune was one of the first prominent Republicans to criticize "stop the steal," and the former president slammed him as "weak" and a RINO, and declared the Senator's career to be "over." However, no candidate materialized. You can't beat somebody with nobody. Consequently, there is not much to see here.
  
  

All in all, although many states are voting, there is not a lot of action at the state level, although some of the House races are interesting. (V)

Oz Wins GOP Primary in Pennsylvania

With all the votes finally recounted, Connecticut-based hedge fund manager David McCormick (R) conceded to New Jersey-based celebrity quack Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) late Friday. Oz won by only 900 votes out of 1.3 million cast. Now McCormick, who clearly never had much fire in his belly for this race, can go back to making money. Oz now has to campaign for another 5 months.

Oz will face Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) in the general election. Fetterman beat Rep. Conor Lamb (D-PA) and state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta (D) with ease in his primary. This is the Democrats' best Senate pickup opportunity.

Oz is an oppo researcher's dream candidate. He has said so many outrageous things on television that deciding which ones to use in ads could be tough. Here are a few of the many potential items Democrats could highlight.

• Hydroxychloroquine fights the coronavirus
• Raspberry ketones are a miracle drug to burn fat
• Green coffee extract is a miracle weight-loss drug
• Astrological signs may reveal a great deal about your health
• Umckaloabo root extract relieves symptoms of the common cold
• Lavender soap cures leg cramps
• A mixture of strawberries and baking soda whitens teeth

Cue the duck. None of these are even remotely true. Oz used to be affiliated with Columbia University, but the university scrubbed him from its website.

In the final weeks of the campaign, Donald Trump endorsed Oz. That probably helped in the primary, but is likely to be a millstone around his neck in the general election, as Democrats are sure to make the race Fetterman against Trump. This "win" does increase Trump's batting average, but picking a candidate late in the game and then having him beat a lackluster opponent from out of state by 900 votes out of 1.3 million is not the stuff that makes other Republicans cower in fear of Trump. (V)

Election Deniers Are Running to Run Elections

In the past, contests for secretary of state were sleepy affairs. No longer. Over a dozen people who falsely claim that Donald Trump was robbed of victory in 2020 are running for state secretary of state all over the country. If they win, they will try to make sure their favorite candidate wins future elections, no matter what the voters want. (Hint: If a Democrat wins, the election is obviously tainted)

The group is loosely referred to as the "American First slate." Every Friday morning they have a conference call to discuss plans and strategies. Sometimes fringe figures unspool conspiracy theories for them, to goad them on. Often these theories involve Republicans as well as Democrats, and also Mark Zuckerberg, George Soros, and other people the far right hates. It's surely just a coincidence that the businessmen they target most frequently are Jewish.

They are being supported by a raft of people who also falsely believe the 2020 presidential was somehow rigged or tainted. These include Pillow Man Mike Lindell, Patrick Byrne, and Pennsylvania Republican gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano.

Rachel Hamm, who is running for SoS in California said: "It doesn't really matter who's running for assembly or governor or anything else. It matters who is counting the vote for that election." This comes perilously close to a remark often (incorrectly) attributed to Joseph Stalin ("It's not who votes that counts, it's who counts the votes").

Another group member is Tina Peters, a county clerk in Colorado who is running for SoS in her state. She described her opposition to Zuckerberg and Soros by saying: "I needed to run with my sword right into the belly of the beast and split it open." Although Soros is clearly a Democrat, Zuckerberg says he is registered as an independent and is not a big-time donor to the Democrats. On the other hand, as noted, they do have one thing in common, demographically.

In New Mexico, group member Audrey Trujillo is certain to capture the Republican nomination for SoS. She is the only one who filed to run. In Michigan, group member Kristina Karamo, a political activist who challenged the 2020 results in her state, got an endorsement from the April party convention, virtually assuring her of the nomination. Similarly in Nevada, Jim Marchant, one of the "American First" organizers, got the endorsement of the Nevada Republican Party and is the almost-certain nominee. In Arizona, Mark Finchem doesn't have the official approval of the state party, but he is the leading fundraiser in the primary.

Some of the things the slate wants are actually good. They want to junk all voting machines and go back to paper ballots. Most election security experts applaud that, as paper ballots are much harder to hack than voting machines. However, the group also wants to aggressively purge the voters rolls, which is code for "remove voters in heavily Democratic areas." Most of the members believe in wild shadowy conspiracy theories with no basis whatsoever in reality. If some of them win their primaries, they could later win their general elections and basically try to end democracy in their states. (V)

How to Establish an Establishment

We often hear that somebody is the "establishment candidate." What is this establishment thing, anyway? Bill Kristol at The Bulwark has made a stab at explaining it, at least on the Republican side. Dictionary.com gives as one of the definitions: "the dominant group in a field of endeavor, organization, etc." Let's go with that.

Kristol points out that when he showed up as a foot soldier in the Reagan revolution in 1985, he thought of the "establishment" as the politicians, pundits, fundraisers, and other operatives who believed in Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford. He soon discovered that by 1985, they had already been replaced by a new establishment devoted to Ronald Reagan. Many of the folks who were part of the Nixon-Ford establishment had joined the Reagan movement and were assimilated or were trying to accommodate it. Not all Republican politicians were true-blue Reaganites, but it was already clear that being anti-Reagan was fatal for a Republican candidate. The torch had already been passed.

The three presidential elections after Reagan left office featured people with Reaganite views, namely George H.W. Bush (2x) and Bob Dole. In fact, the Reaganauts were the Republican establishment for 28 years after Reagan left office. Until Donald Trump.

In 6 short years since 2016, the Reagan establishment is as dead as the Eisenhower/Nixon/Ford establishment. There is a new MAGA establishment. The big question is whether it will survive Trump, as Reaganism survived Reagan. There are some critical differences though. Reagan had some genuine accomplishments. He was elected by massive landslides twice, the first time against a sitting president winning 44 states, and the second time winning every state except Minnesota. He helped conclude the Cold War and destroy the Soviet Union. This was followed by 20+ years of peace and prosperity.

In contrast, Trump barely won the 2016 election and lost the popular vote against a weak candidate. In 2020, he lost both the popular vote and electoral vote. As to his time as president, in 200 years the only thing the history books will note is that he was impeached twice. Not so sure? Quick, name two of Andrew Johnson's biggest accomplishments.

Nevertheless, Trumpism is clearly the new establishment, as evidenced by the fact that almost no Republican candidate is openly running against Trumpism. Not every one of them is equally enthusiastic about it, but the fact that while a handful of politicians (e.g., Rep. Liz Cheney, R-WY) don't like Trump himself, few of them reject Trumpism. It has completely taken over the GOP. For that reason, Kristol thinks that it won't go away until some new charismatic Republican leader emerges to challenge and defeat it. Even if Trump drops out of politics or dies, other Republicans, like Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), will claim they are the new Trump. They most definitely do not yell that Trumpism is dead and their movement will replace it. If Kristol is right, Trumpism could outlive Trump's time in office by as long (28 years) as Reaganism outlived Reagan's time in office.

Or... maybe not. When a Republican, like John Thune, fails to bow to Trump, Trump loves to slur that person as a RINO. Invariably, that produces eye-rolling in the media, and the observation that of course Thune (or whoever it is) is a Republican, because they did/said/voted for X, Y, and Z. But if "Republican" now effectively means "Trumper," then Trump is actually kinda right that those who oppose him are RINOs. Note, however, that while most Republican officeholders in the 1980s and 1990s really did believe in Reaganism, there are a lot of Republican officeholders today who don't believe in Trumpism, and are just faking it. If people like Thune have success, it could cause others to stop pretending to be Trumpers. And so, Trumpism could collapse without the emergence of a new, charismatic Republican, because it's ultimately built on a shaky foundation. It translates to big wins in red cities and states, but paper-thin wins nearly everywhere else that it works. That's not a great situation for most politicians. (V)

Sasse Wants an Optimistic GOP

The fact that MAGA is clearly the new Republican establishment doesn't mean that every single Republican politician worships Donald Trump. Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE) is one of the exceptions, and he gave a fiery speech last week. In it, he attacked the Republicans as a bunch of whiners. He said: "American conservatives don't traffic in grievance. Our party must reject politicians who tell the American people that we're victims." Of course, the modern Republican party, the MAGA movement, and Donald Trump are all about white grievance. That's almost all there is.

Sasse wants the Republicans to be optimistic, not crybabies. Long ago, it used to be that the optimistic candidate won. Think about John Kennedy vs. Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan vs. Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton vs. George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush vs. Al Gore, and Barack Obama vs. John McCain and Mitt Romney. Optimism used to beat pessimism, and Sasse wants to go back to that. But he is clearly out of step with the new Republican establishment (see above). Of course, if he runs for president in 2024 on an optimistic platform, as did Ronald Reagan twice, and wins, he could end the MAGA establishment very quickly. But that is a big "if," since most of the Party has a dark vision of America and of the future.

If Sasse had only gone after the Republicans, he would have taken a lot of incoming fire from Republicans, so he also attacked the Democrats for "balance," but his real target was Republicans who are constantly whining that they are victims. It's probably not going to work, though. Grievance has worked well for Republicans. Not only did it get them a president in 2016 (and almost a president in 2020), but it also got them half the Senate and a good chance at taking over the House in November. So if whining and scapegoating minorities of all kinds is a good political strategy, why change? Sasse realizes that whining is not a long-term strategy for any political party. However, convincing Republicans to focus on things they want to achieve in the future rather than indulging the instinct to bellyache about immigrants, Big Tech, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, minorities, "Christianity under attack," etc. is not going to be easy. Still, he is one of the few Republicans giving it a shot. (V)

Trump Faces a Dilemma in Alabama

On June 21, Alabama Republicans will choose a Senate candidate. It will either be Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL) or Katie Britt. What will Trump do? It is a very high profile race and sitting it out would look weak, something Trump hates.

On the one hand, Brooks is traveling around the state and going on television yelling that the 2020 election was rigged and Trump won. However, Trump has both endorsed him and disendorsed him this year. Re-endorsing him would make it look that Trump can't make up his mind—that is, he is weak. Not a good look.

On the other hand, while Britt is saying all the things conservatives are supposed to say, she isn't campaigning on the Big Lie and she is the favorite of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), whom Trump can't stand. But she is at least 15 points ahead in the polls, so if Trump cares mostly about his batting average rather than who is lying the most about 2020, he would have to go with her. Also, Britt is the chief of staff of Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL), who is not terribly Trumpy. In fact, Trump called Shelby a RINO last year. So going with her would be all about his batting average and not at all about ideology or who is yapping the most about 2020.

Trump's hatred of McConnell could also be a factor in his decision. Brooks knows that Trump hates McConnell and has vowed not to vote for him as GOP leader in order to woo Trump. Britt has made no such promise, although she has vaguely noted that maybe it is time for a new generation of leaders. And, of course, Trump is no fan of putting women in positions of power.

So all of this puts Trump in a bind. Each of the candidates has major drawbacks, but not making an endorsement makes him look weak. And with the election in 2 weeks, he can't dawdle too much longer if he wants to have any impact at all.

All this said, it is worth noting that Trump isn't the only factor in the race. In the first round, Britt got 45% of the vote, Brooks got 29% and Army veteran Mike Durant got 23%. If Britt can pick up a third of the Durant voters, she will make it across the finish line first. Durant has not endorsed either candidate in the runoff, but his voters are the real prize. The $64,000 question is how much Trump's endorsement or lack thereof will influence the Durant voters, many of whom probably voted for him due to his heroism while in the Army rather than his ideology. (V)

Democrats Face a Dilemma in Ohio

The Ohio primary is over and we now know that Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) will face J.D. Vance (R) in November. Polls show that the race is close. This puts the national Democrats in a bind. On the one hand, Ryan is a solid candidate from a working-class background. His campaign is about reviving the state's troubled manufacturing sector, cutting taxes for the middle class, and blocking China. He is definitely not woke, a plus in Ohio. He is also a strong fundraiser. He even looks like a senator, which is always helpful (don't tell John Fetterman, though). In short, if the DSCC had been able to design a Senate candidate for Ohio from scratch, they would have ended up with Ryan.

The problem is that many national Democrats feel that Ohio is no longer the swing state it used to be. It is now more Indiana than it is Michigan. It is also a large and expensive state. The big question for them is whether to plow a lot of scarce money into his race or use it in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or North Carolina, which may be easier pick-ups. Or maybe to use it to shore up incumbents in Arizona and Nevada.

Aaron Pickrell, a top adviser for Barack Obama's winning campaigns in Ohio, said: "There's this self-fulfilling prophecy: We're not going to win in Ohio because we didn't invest in Ohio, and we didn't invest in Ohio because we're not going to win Ohio." Of course, Democrats know that Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) has won three times statewide in Ohio, but Ohio has changed a lot since Brown's first victory in 2006. And his most recent win, in 2018, was in a strong Democratic year, so Brown's career may not provide much guidance.

The Democrats could try to fudge it by giving Ryan some money, but not too much. However, that risks ending up with the worst of all possible worlds: They use up millions of dollars they could have spent in, say, Wisconsin, and end up losing both Ohio and Wisconsin. The one bit of luck the Democrats have is that the chairman of the DSCC is Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), whose state borders Ohio and who probably knows Ohio as well as any Democratic senator other than Brown. Detroit is only 50 miles from Toledo, OH. Ultimately, it will be his call on how much money to dump in Ryan's campaign. (V)

Nevada GOP Senate Primary May Not Be a Done Deal

Most people who are watching Nevada politics think that Adam Laxalt is a shoo-in to get the Republican senatorial nomination to face Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV). But maybe that isn't a done deal yet. Laxalt has a lot going for him. His grandfather, Paul Laxalt, was a Nevada governor and senator and his father, Pete Domenici, was a senator from New Mexico. In case you are wondering why Adam isn't Adam Domenici, there is an answer, but it is a bit messy. While Paul Laxalt was in the Senate, the married Domenici was having an extramarital affair with the daughter of fellow senator Laxalt. Sleeping with your colleague's young daughter is clearly an example of Republican family values in action. The result of the affair was Adam. Getting an abortion could have damaged the careers of two senators, so she had (and kept) the baby. Since Michelle Laxalt was not married at the time, the baby was named Adam Laxalt.

Given his background (the political family, not the sex scandal), Adam later went to law school and became an attorney. In 2014, he moved to Nevada and was elected Nevada AG. In 2018, he ran for governor and lost. Now he is running for the Senate. The Laxalt name is well known in Nevada, so he has been presumed to be the clear favorite for the GOP nomination, especially since he has consumed gallons of the Donald Trump Kool-Aid and gotten Trump's endorsement.

However, slowly but surely, an insurgent candidate, Sam Brown, is catching up with him. Brown is a retired Army captain who was injured by an IED in Afghanistan and is arguing that Laxalt is too close to GOP power players and that the party needs some fresh blood. Brown has also made the case that since Laxalt lived almost his entire life in D.C. until he was elected Nevada AG in 2014, he is effectively a carpetbagger who doesn't know Nevada. Brown has also harped on Laxalt's statewide defeat in 2018.

Brown was down almost 40 points in the polls earlier this year, but a more recent one put him down only 15 points. He has also raised over $1 million in each of the past three quarters. In addition, he was won straw polls in multiple counties. His ads highlight his personal story, saying that after 30 surgeries for his war injuries "I'm hard to kill."

Some local observers think that Laxalt would actually be an easier opponent for Masto because he is so closely tied to Trump, which Brown is not. She could run a campaign saying "if you love Trump, vote for my opponent, otherwise vote for me." Trump lost Nevada twice and the Democrats know how to run against Trumpy candidates, whereas fighting Brown would require Masto to rethink her campaign. The primary is a week from tomorrow. (V)

Supreme Court Will Issue 33 Decisions This Month

June is decision time for the Supreme Court, when numerous rulings are made public. All Court watchers are waiting to see if the final ruling on the abortion case is the same one as was leaked last month. But there are 32 other decisions expected in the next 3 weeks. Here are some more hot-button cases:

• Guns: For over a century, New York State has had a law that limits the concealed carry of guns to persons over 21 who have a specific defense need. People who think we have too many laws restricting gun ownership have taken a case to the Supreme Court to try to get the New York law declared unconstitutional. The Court held oral hearings earlier this term and a decision is expected shortly. It could uphold the New York law or declare that any law limiting the sale or use of any gun is inherently unconstitutional. If all gun laws are struck down, then any 12-year-old in any state who has managed to save up $700 from mowing the neighbors' lawns could legally go out and buy an AR-15.
  
  If the Court were to strike down all laws limiting gun sales and ownership—right after a number of very high-profile mass murders—it would set off a fire storm comparable to the one that will be set off if the final version of the decision about the Mississippi abortion clinic is essentially the same as the draft written by Justice Samuel Alito and leaked by Politico. It would also give the Democrats something to talk about all fall. How about this bumper sticker: "SCOTUS: No to abortion, yes to guns. Vote Democratic." The combination would surely bring up plenty of discussion about Congress overruling the Court, restricting its jurisdiction, or at least expanding it.
  
  
• Religious liberty: Maine is so rural that some areas have no schools at all. The state recognized this and passed a law giving parents in those areas vouchers to pay for tuition at private schools elsewhere in the state. The vouchers cannot be used at religious schools, however. Now some religious schools are salivating over the prospect of getting the state to subsidize them and a case has made it to the Supreme Court. The Court will have to decide if religious schools have a right to get state money, just as nonreligious private schools. If they do, the separation between church and state will be kaput and religious institutions will be demanding state money for all kinds of services. Another case that relates to religion is one in which a high school football coach was fired for praying at games.
  
  
• Immigration: The Trump administration instituted a policy of requiring potential immigrants seeking asylum to remain in Mexico while their cases played out in the U.S. courts. Joe Biden tried to rescind the policy but the lower courts stymied him. Now the Supreme Court will have the final say—unless Congress acts. Another case deals with immigrants who use public benefits such as Medicaid and food stamps. Trump wanted them shipped back to wherever they came from. Biden wants to stop making this grounds for deportation.
  
  
• Climate change: In a case to be decided soon, the Court could eliminate the EPA's authority to regulate emissions from power plants. Conservatives would love to cripple the government on environmental issues, so this decision could have huge ramifications for the planet and the fight against climate change.
  
  
• Voting rights: This case originated in a lawsuit challenging North Carolina's voter-ID law, arguing that it violates state law, the federal Voting Rights Act, and the U.S. Constitution. The state AG, Josh Stein (D), defended the law, but some state legislators tried to intervene. The case will determine how much power state legislators have.

These aren't the only cases. This is a list of other pending cases. (V)

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