Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

We don't think there's a lot of value in talking about all the rumors, and blow-ups, and back-and-forth involved with the reconciliation bill sausage-making any more. What seems rock-solid today may be vapor by tomorrow. However, significant developments are certainly worth noting. There were two of those on Thursday.

First up is America's most famous senator, Joe Manchin (D-WV). When it comes to the price tag for the bill, he has said many times that his bottom line is $1.5 trillion. Or maybe that's his top line. Whichever one you prefer, it turns out that "$1.5 trillion" is a relative term, because he indicated on Thursday that he's now on board with $1.75 trillion in spending. That's a lot more cash, even if it doesn't seem like it when bandying about figures like $3.5 trillion and $7 trillion.

Undoubtedly, someone (probably Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-NY) persuaded Manchin that if he didn't support the higher price tag, something he prioritizes (dental care? carbon recapture?) would end up on the cutting-room floor. Exactly how much more flexibility Manchin has is known only to him. Maybe this is a one-time concession, or maybe he can eventually be dragged to $1.9 trillion or $2 trillion. After all, what's a couple hundred billion among friends?

Meanwhile, on the other side of the building, things are not going quite as smoothly. Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) very much wanted to hold a key vote on the $550-billion-in-new-spending bipartisan infrastructure bill on Thursday. The purpose was to build some momentum heading into the final stretch on the reconciliation bill, especially since Jose Biden, the arm-twister-in-chief, is going to be in Italy all next week. Biden thought this was a good idea as well, and he stopped by the Capitol on the way out of town. However, as much as he and Pelosi tried to whip the necessary number of votes, they just couldn't do it.

The problem, as you can probably guess, is the Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC). The moderates and Blue Dog Democrats are happy as a clam with the $550 billion bill, and House Republicans basically won't vote "yea" on any bill Pelosi introduces. That leaves the CPC as the only plausible holdout. They are not happy that the price tag of the reconciliation bill has been cut so much, and they are not happy about some of the programs that were jettisoned in order to get down to $1.5-$1.7 trillion. So, they refused to play ball with the Speaker and the President on Thursday.

This is not to say the CPC won't get to "yes" eventually; Thursday's demonstration was merely meant to show that they are not pushovers and they will not accept just any bill in the name of party loyalty. That said, they obviously aren't at "yes" as yet, and until they are, anything is possible. It is not often that Pelosi applies all of her vote-whipping mojo and comes up short.

In short, if you're hoping that the infrastructure bills will be as big as is possible, you got a little bit of good news yesterday. And if you're hoping that the infrastructure bills will go belly up, you also got a little bit of good news yesterday. So, no matter where you stand, the headline of this item applies to you. (Z)

What Is Kyrsten Sinema Doing?

That is the $64,000 question these days. Or, if you believe the whispers about Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D?-AZ), it's considerably more than $64,000. Hank Stephenson is about as dialed in to Arizona politics as any pundit, as he works as a journalist in Phoenix and he also pens a newsletter about Arizona politics called Arizona Agenda. And in a piece written for Politico, Stephenson declares that there is no mystery here at all, and that Sinema is doing what she's always done.

So what is that, exactly? Well, here's the key passage:

[S]ome of her oldest allies—as well as critics—have an insight for the Democrats who are trying to corral her, and it's not necessarily a comfortable one: Get used to it. Politically, Sinema's career looks like she experienced a personal revolution; she began as a left-wing agitator and ended up as a Republican-friendly moderate. But in Arizona, many people see those positions as almost beside the point: For them, Sinema is better understood in terms of pure ambition, and the constant triangulation needed to hold office in a purple state that fancies itself charting an independent course, whatever that requires in the moment.

In other words, it's all about the pursuit of power. Sinema is just Mitch McConnell in a dress. Or, if you prefer, Mitch McConnell is just Kyrsten Sinema in a $5,000 suit.

That's not exactly a profound insight; when we've written about the Senator, we've presumed that she's just laying the groundwork for her reelection campaign. However, while we are bearish about her chances, given the near-guarantee of a serious primary challenge, Stephenson thinks it could work out for her. "Even among her critics," he writes, "Sinema is widely regarded as among the savviest political operators in Arizona history. She has the book smarts of a lawyer, the emotional intelligence of a social worker and the determination of a triathlete, because she is all of those things." He quotes a former Sinema ally, who was granted anonymity so as to be able to speak freely, as opining that she knows how to play the game as well as anyone. That said, the same former ally says that what the Senator really loves is attention, and that "If she lost the Senate race and got a TV show on Fox or whatever, I think she'd be just as happy."

Slate also had a piece on Sinema yesterday, and it communicates much the same thing, albeit in a rather different way. The Slate article is an interview with Sylvia González Andersh, one of the five veterans who resigned from Sinema's veterans advisory council last week. And the tale that Andersh tells is pretty cringeworthy.

Everyone knows that things like "veterans advisory councils" are mostly for show, so that politicians can get a photo-op, and can claim to be getting valuable input on the issues from their constituents. However, it is hard to see how anyone could make that any more obvious than Sinema did. Andersh was at precisely one meeting where the Senator appeared, absolutely no feedback was solicited, and after a few minutes they jumped right to the photo-op, with Sinema physically moving people around to compose the best shot. An interesting choice from someone who just made a federal case out of it when a constituent dared make momentary physical contact at an airport. In any event, once the photo-op with the veterans was completed, the Senator hightailed it out of the "advisory" meeting.

Undoubtedly, there are other senators—probably a lot of them—that are this mercenary and this thoughtless when it comes to using people and then casting them aside. But those senators do not generally have a decorated veteran calling them out on their behavior in public. And those senators also do not have a budding PR crisis wherein half the country is talking about how they turned out to be a phony. And so, while we concede that she's brilliant, and that the Arizona pundit Stephenson knows her playbook better than we do, we still think she's done enormous, and very possibly irreparable, damage to her political career.

Remember this. While carrying on to show how independent she is may play well with Republicans, to get to the general election, she may first have to win a Democratic primary. The most likely opponent is Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), a veteran and a Latino in a state with lots of both. If Gallego's pitch is: "I support Joe Biden's programs and my opponent does not," that could get him the Democratic nomination. In that case, all of Sinema's maneuvering will have been for naught. She can't run as an independent after losing the Democratic primary because Arizona has a sore loser law. (Z & V)

Joe to Meet with Jorge

Ok, he doesn't go by "Jorge" these days, but "Francis" isn't alliterative with "Joe" or with "Biden." In any event, the Pope and the President will meet today. Many sitting presidents, starting with Woodrow Wilson, have met with sitting popes. And Biden and Francis have crossed paths before. But today's tête-à-tête marks just the second time a Catholic president has met with the pope. The first, of course, was John F. Kennedy, who met Paul VI on July 2, 1963. (Hey, that's Jorge, John, and Paul in the same paragraph. Too bad there was no Pope Ringo, so we could complete the set.)

Biden is, of course, going through some doldrums right now, and could use a lift politically, and probably personally. Popes do not comment directly on national politics, but Francis is pretty good at making his feelings known nonetheless. For example, can you guess which of Biden's two immediate predecessors he approved of, and which one he did not approve of?

We'll give you a hint: Francis is normally a fairly chipper, upbeat guy, and he does not generally look like he is longing for a visit from the Angel of Death.

In any event, a home run of a photo-op could be exceedingly helpful for Biden. There are a lot of Catholic voters—Latinos and white ethnics—who aren't so sure about the President, and who might be influenced by an approving smile from Francis. If Francis makes very clear that he and Biden are paisan—and they have always been very friendly in the past—then it may also cause some of the American bishops who don't approve of the President to be a bit more circumspect in their criticism. At very least, Francis will speak publicly on issues of international interest, and will have words of encouragement for Biden as he heads to the climate summit taking place just a couple of miles from the apostolic palace.

There is one slight modicum of controversy or mystery, however. Normally, Francis' papal audiences, even those with prominent folks, are broadcast live. However, yesterday the Vatican announced that it was canceling the broadcast of the Biden meet-up, and that photographs and edited footage would be provided later in the day. We can't find anyone who has an explanation or a theory for why the change was made; the only guess we can come up with is that Biden asked Francis to hear his confession and Francis is bound to keep that information private. That's not a great guess, though. Presumably, if that was going to happen, they could do it before the press event. Further, Francis met with South Korean president Moon Jae-in, who is also Catholic, earlier this week, and that meeting was broadcast live. Maybe the reason for the secrecy will eventually be revealed, though we wouldn't bet on it.

This Week's 2022 Candidate News

We may have to start doing this twice a week, as the election cycle is heating up. Today we'll look at a bunch of House races where there have been developments.

• U.S. House, Florida: Alcee Hastings represented FL-20, which is D+31 and is 53.4% Black. And so, the race to replace him following his demise is guaranteed to give the seat to a Democrat (no Republicans are running), and that Democrat is quite likely to be Black. However, there are now 11 candidates who have thrown their hats in the ring, and—given the small and wonky turnout that is characteristic of special elections—any of the 11 might plausibly come out on top.
  
  That special election will take place on Nov. 2, so maybe this story doesn't belong in a list of items about 2022 candidates. However, if no candidate gets 50% of the vote (and none will), then the top two will advance to a runoff in January. So, it's a 2022 contest by a nose. Further, whoever wins will do so with a fairly small number of votes, which means another giant field is likely next year, when FL-20 gets to do this all again.
  
  
• U.S. House, Florida: Rep. Charlie Crist (D) is leaving this seat to try to get back his old job as governor. It's currently got a PVI of EVEN and so, redistricting changes notwithstanding, it figures to be one of the most closely contested House seats next year. Or, maybe not. Anna Paulina Luna has Donald Trump's endorsement, and is currently dominating polling of the Republican primary field. She is basically Florida's answer to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), and has claimed, among other things, that Trump insider Roger Stone is trying to poison her and that three different Republican operatives tried to murder her. If she gets the Republican nomination, then the Democrats become the clear favorites to hold on to this seat.
  
  
• U.S. House, Maryland: Rep. Anthony Brown (D) has decided he's finished with the House, and that he will run to be Maryland's AG instead. His district, MD-04, is D+29, so it won't be changing hands. However, that also means he could have had the job for life. That he is the 14th House Democrat to announce their retirement adds to the evidence that Democratic insiders foresee a rough year in 2022.
  
  
• U.S. House, Montana: Ryan Zinke, the disgraced former Secretary of the Interior, would like to return to Washington. And so, he is planning to run in Montana's brand new congressional district, and he's the favorite to land the Republican nomination. There is one small problem, though, and that is that he never seems to be in Montana. He essentially lives in Santa Barbara, CA, and nearly all of his fundraising so far has come from non-Montanans. People don't like carpetbaggers, and they don't tend to feel too much more warmly about fakers. Zinke has actual Montana roots, but if he's abandoned the state then he's abandoned the state. The new district maps aren't ready yet, but MT-02 could be competitive, particularly if Big Sky voters decide they are not enamored of a corrupt reverse-carpetbagger. Don't forget that one of the two senators from the state is a Democrat and the governor was a Democrat until January of this year.
  
  
• U.S. House, Oregon: Kurt Schrader (D) is a moderate, and he's got a choice to make. He currently represents OR-05, and that is where his residence will be located when the new district maps are adopted. However, OR-05 is pretty purple, at D+3, and has already attracted a serious challenger from the left in the person of activist Jamie McLeod-Skinner. The Representative could jump over to the state's new district, OR-06, which is bluer (D+7) but where most voters don't know him and where, once again, he doesn't actually live. That's legal, but voters don't tend to love it. Things like this are why members of Congress are not likely to call for a redo of the census, and with it, a redo of redistricting. One round of district musical chairs every 10 years is enough.
  
  
• U.S. House, Texas: On the other hand, some decisions about which district to run in are as easy as pie. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D) currently represents TX-15, which is going to go from D+3 to R+3. Meanwhile, TX-34 is right next door, is being vacated by the retiring Filemon Vela (D), and is going from D+5 to D+17. The staff mathematician is "indisposed," if you know what we mean, but even we know that D+17 is better for a Democrat than R+3. Gonzalez knows it too, and he just made it official that he's going to do some district-hopping next year.
  
  
• U.S. House, West Virginia: And here we have a different kind of redistricting issue. Oregon and Texas are gaining a district while West Virginia is losing one. And the result of that is that Reps. David McKinley (R) and Alex Mooney (R) are now in the same district, which will be labeled WV-01. There's only one other district, as of 2022, and that one is occupied by Carol Miller (R), who has no interest in retiring. So, if one of the two Representatives does not decide to throw in the towel, then it's going to be a battle royale. McKinley has been in the House longer, and is a native West Virginian. Mooney is younger, Trumpier, and a better fundraiser, but came to the state from Maryland. It's anyone guess right now which one will triumph.

We've got some senatorial, gubernatorial, and even mayoral news we'll get to next week. (Z)

Fox Weather Channel Sloganeering, Part I

On Wednesday, in the spirit of the late, great Mort Sahl, we asked readers to submit possible slogans for the new Fox Weather Channel. We got close to 1,000 suggestions, many of them quite good. So, we'll run some today, and another batch on Tuesday of next week. And without further ado:

• J.L. in Chicago, IL, Fox Weather Channel: Celsius is a socialist plot
  
  
• J.J.B. in Santa Fe, NM, Fox Weather Channel: We don't know how the weather works, but we'll pretend we do
  
  
• B.N. in San Rafael, CA, Fox Weather Channel: Not climate change, alternate weather
  
  
• K.A. in Miami Beach, FL, Fox Weather Channel: Because Blue Skies Are Really Red
  
  
• R.J. in New York City, New York, Fox Weather Channel: Most Watched, Most Wrong
  
  
• S.C. in Detroit, MI, Fox Weather Channel: Where the word "fair" might actually mean something
  
  
• K.K. in San Mateo, CA, Fox Weather Channel: Most about pumpkin spice latte season. Least about Greta Thunberg.
  
  
• E.P.B. in Denver, CO, Fox Weather Channel: With Sharpie 3000 hurricane modeling
  
  
• J.A. in Rochester, NY, Fox Weather Channel: We Changed El Niño and La Niña to Proud Boy and Patriot Girl
  
  
• J.B. in Los Angeles, CA, Fox Weather Channel: We report on stormy weather, not Stormy Daniels
  
  
• M.M. in El Paso, TX, Fox Weather Channel: Not always right, but always right
  
  
• J.S. in Palo Alto, CA, Fox Weather Channel: Tune in to see who God is punishing now
  
  
• A.M. in Olympia, WA, Fox Weather Channel: Snow Jobs R Us
  
  
• D.D. in New Franklin, OH, Fox Weather Channel: Every day is sunny and 1875
  
  
• F.D. in Portland, OR, Fox Weather Channel: We Forecast, You Decide!

Wherever Mort is, we hope he approves. (Z)

This Week in Schadenfreude

If Donald Trump's new social media platform actually gets off the ground—unlikely as that is—it will surely supplant Mos Eisley spaceport as the galaxy's most wretched hive of scum and villainy. So, it's easy to root against the people involved in building it and supporting it. And for those who feel that way, there were two bits of good news this week.

First, anyone who enters Trump's orbit promptly joins him in believing that the rules do not apply to them. Because Team Trump is either unwilling to spend the time, or unwilling to spend the money, or unable to attract the necessary expertise, or some combination of the above, they chose an open-source solution for TRUTH, their Twitter knockoff. That solution is called Mastodon, and part of the deal when you use that (free) software is that you have to pay it forward. That is to say, any additions or changes you make also have to be open source.

Trump & Co. have decided that is not how they want to play the game. They are happy to utilize the free software, but they want their modifications and additions to be private property, and not open source. That's a violation of the Mastodon license. The nonprofit Software Freedom Conservancy, which employs lawyers who care a lot about open-source software and who know this area of the law very well, has advised the would-be social media startup that it has 30 days to comply with the license or to stop using the Mastodon software.

Exactly what the former president and his underlings will do is anyone's guess. He seems unlikely to adhere to the Mastodon license, since he is a man who likes his secrets. On the other hand, if he defies the license, he'll get sued and lose, and losing access to Mastodon once the platform has actually launched would be disastrous. The tech people that are working on the project could try to find another open-source solution, but they're going to run into the same problem. And again, they don't seem to have the means or the skills to build their own solution, particularly before the promised Q1 2022 launch. This whole thing could collapse before it even gets off the ground. And that's the TRUTH.

Meanwhile, grifters gotta grift. Trump loves the use of shell companies, and so the new social media platform was set up under the auspices of a shell company called Digital World Acquisition Corp., which is publicly traded. The initial public offering attracted huge interest, and sent the price of the shares to the moon, from about $10 to $175. Our guess is that the former president and some of his other shareholders cashed out some of their equity at that point. You know, it's kind of like getting yours before the casino goes bankrupt.

On the other hand, Trump acolyte Marjorie Taylor Greene may be known for her fanatical loyalty, but she's not exactly known for her financial acumen. And so, while others (whether Trumpers, or day traders, or speculators) were getting out, she was jumping in. She bought between $15,001 and $50,000 worth of shares when the price was near its peak. It has since dropped to about $60. So, she took a bath. It's not known exactly how much of a bath, but it could well be into five figures.

What we have, then, is the possibility of TRUTH failing in epic fashion, for want of infrastructure, and it taking a chunk of Marjorie Taylor Greene's net worth with it. For many Americans, that's a lotta schadenfreude in one nice, tidy bundle. (Z)

Back to the Back to the Future, Part XII: Other

And finally, just 302 days into 2021, we reach the end of the reader predictions for 2021. Here are the installments we've already run:

• Part I: Donald Trump
• Part II: Trump's Family and Supporters
• Part III: Right-wing Politicians and Media
• Part IV: The Biden Administration
• Part V: The Supreme Court
• Part VI: Congress, the Legislation
• Part VII: Congress, the People
• Part VIII: The Pandemic
• Part IX: The Economy
• Part X: Foreign Affairs
• Part XI: Domestic Affairs

And now, a grab bag of predictions that did not fit well in any other category:

• D.S. in Palo Alto, CA: SpaceX will successfully land a starship on the moon and have it return, or at least will successfully orbit Earth with many starships.
  
  
• C.M. in Dublin, Ireland: The 2020 (2021) Olympics will go ahead in some form, but without crowds.
  
  
• J.M. in Seattle, WA: MLB will not play a full 162-game season.
  
  
• S.Y. in Skokie, IL: The Chicago White Sox will be the best damn baseball team in Chicago.
  
  
• J.D. in Olathe, KS: The New York Yankees will win the World Series over the Atlanta Braves.
  
  
• D.H. in Lisbon Falls, ME: Joe Biden will throw out the first pitch at Yankee Stadium during the World Series. Padres' manager Jayce Tingler will call the pitch "better than George W. Bush's."
  
  
• M.S. in Pittsburgh, PA: The Pirates will win the World Series ... before the turn of the century.
  
  
• D.S. in Havertwon, PA: Green Bay will not win a Super Bowl because their fans are evil, bad-cheese producing slack-jawed yokels who moon opposing teams while eating fried butter wrapped in bacon (a real thing, by the way...ah, those svelte health nuts in eastern Wisconsin). Neither will my team, but Skol Vikings anyway!
  
  
• K.H. in Maryille TN: Since you took the #1 one spot for Barack Obama to receive the Medal of Freedom, I will predict that Dolly Parton receives the second one.
  
  
• F.S. in Cologne, Germany: Less than half of the predictions that (V) and (Z) made for 2021 will become reality. I'm particularly skeptical regarding your first prediction. I believe that all 5 leaders will be in power at the end of 2021.
  
  
• D.S. in Lakewood, OH: I predict your first week of posts that don't mention a Trump will not happen until November, unless you take a week long vacation. If it's not Senior, it will be Melania (divorce episodes?), Junior, Eric, Ivanka or Jared (he counts as one) stirring up some misfits or getting involved in some campaign.
  
  
• M.B. in Cleveland, OH: (V) and/or (Z) will include the word "trump" or "trumps" in multiple stories not about DJT or his family in order to play mind games with readers who search pages to find the first Trump-free day or week.
  
  
• E.R. in Colorado Springs, CO: In direct contradiction to your prediction, there will not be a single "Trump-free" news week on this site in all of 2021; in fact, there will be only a handful of days you don't mention him, and even then you'll be tempted to. The fact is that the media loves Trump because any story about him garners revenue-generating eyeballs. On the right, it's adulating eyeballs; on the left, it's rolling/sneering eyeballs. Combine this with the fact that Trump desperately needs attention, and you get the codependent relationship where he will continue to do outrageous things, and the media, including you, will continue to cover them.
  
  
• F.M. in Charlottesville, VA: (V) and (Z) will take their first weekday off in nearly five years, with much less political news to write about on a daily basis.
  
  
• J.M.R. in Chappaqua, NY: I predict that electoral-vote.com readers will accuse Joe Biden of being a far left radical and a conservative sympathizer within the same mailbag multiple times this year. The same prediction holds true for readers' responses to (V) and (Z).
  
  
• D.A. in Edinburgh, Scotland, UK: Electoral-Vote.com will recruit a 3rd member of the editorial/writing staff to join (Z) & (V) as part of the team. Likely another U.S. Citizen who lives abroad—maybe even one of the U.S. infiltrators secretly working to destabilize the Canadian-Netherlands Empire from the inside. This step will allow the site to remain a 7-day service and to dabble in other nations' elections. The site will also run a single-click survey asking if readers identify as a woman or man. When the results are announced and it is shown there is a greater number of female readers than previously found, calls to set up a new pen-pal/personal ads section on Sundays will be ignored despite the weekly request to do so.
  
  
• D.E. in Lancaster, PA: I predict that sometime during 2021, (Z) will not be able to finish one of his history essay series without being interrupted by some horrendous event.
  
  
• S.B. in New Castle, DE: Electoral-vote.com will become a top 10 podcast or YouTube influencer.
  
  
• P.D.K. in Blaine, MN: The underlying worry and dread of 2020 will be replaced with an underlying joy in 2021. The sharp edges of disagreement between the parties and political organizations will soften due to this joy. There will still be near deadlock in Washington but the general citizenry won't pay as close attention, distracted by this new feeling of joy.
  
  
• B.H. in Westborough, MA: 2021 will suck less than 2020.

We will check back in with these when the calendar turns to 2022. (Z)

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