In every election cycle a certain number of senators and representatives retire or run for other offices leaving behind open seats for their
parties to defend.
Here are the number of retirements in recent years:
| 2020 |
1 |
3 |
| 2018 |
0 |
4 |
| 2016 |
3 |
2 |
| 2014 |
5 |
3 |
| 2012 |
6 |
3 |
| 2010 |
5 |
6 |
| 2008 |
0 |
5 |
| 2006 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
| 2020 |
12 |
36 |
| 2018 |
18 |
34 |
| 2016 |
8 |
20 |
| 2014 |
16 |
25 |
| 2012 |
23 |
20 |
| 2010 |
17 |
20 |
| 2008 |
6 |
27 |
| 2006 |
9 |
18 |
|
Here are the numbers so far for the 2022 election:
Here is the list of senators who are retiring this cycle (sorted alphabetically by state):
| Richard Shelby |
Republican |
Alabama |
He will be 88 on Election Day 2022 |
| Roy Blunt |
Republican |
Missouri |
He is a old-style dealmaker and there are no deals to ne made any more |
| Richard Burr |
Republican |
North Carolina |
He is compromised by an inside-trading scandal |
| Rob Portman |
Republican |
Ohio |
He is a moderate who can't stand the dysfunctional Senate |
| Pat Toomey |
Republican |
Pennsylvania |
He would probably lose if he ran |
Here are the announced House retirements, sorted on PVI (Cook Partisan Voting Index) based on the 2020 districts. In
other words, it is based on the old districts, before reapportionment. The PVIs will change once new districts
are drawn, but all we have now are the old ones. Any seat between R+5 and D+5 is a swing district that has to be fought
over, even more so if occupied by the "wrong" party.
| Kevin Brady |
Republican |
TX-08 |
R+28 |
He hit the term limit for chairing the Ways and Means Committee |
| Tom Reed |
Republican |
NY-23 |
R+6 |
Got enmeshed in a #MeToo-type scandal |
| Ann Kirkpatrick |
Democratic |
AZ-02 |
R+1 |
Her seat could be vulnerable after redistricting |
| Filemón Vela |
Democratic |
TX-34 |
D+10 |
His seat will definitely be vulnerable after GOP-led redistricting |
