Abercrombie Wins Hawaii Gubernatorial Primary
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Former representative Neil Abercrombie (D)
won
the Democratic gubernatorial primary yesterday over
former Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannenmann (D) in a hard fought battle although his margin was quite large: 59% to 38%
for such a tough fight. Abercrombie will face Lt. Gov. James Aiona (R-HI) in the general election. Given how blue
Hawaii is, Abercrombie is expected to win easily and succeed two-term governor Linda Lingle, who as a twice-divorced
childless Republican Jewish woman is a bit of an anomaly in Hawaii.
Inouye Renominated and on Track to Becoming Longest-Serving Senator in History
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Also in Hawaii, Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-HI), now 86, won renomination for his ninth term in the Senate. He is currently the
longest serving member of the Senate, and as a member of the majority party, is President Pro Tempore of the Senate and thus
third in the line of presidential succession, after the Vice President and Speaker of the House. Inouye has served longer in the
Senate than anyone in history except the late Robert Byrd. If Inouye completes this term, he will become the longest-serving
senator in history. Of course, he has to get reelected first, but that is pretty much a foregone conclusion given that his
Republican opponent, state representative Cam Cavasso is a tea partier and this is Hawaii.
One interesting footnote to yesterday's
primary is that the Secretary of State has published
detailed statewide results
and in the Democratic senatorial primary (Inouye vs. Andrew Woerner) there were 184 overvotes. That means that 184 people voted
for both Inouye and Woerner. Given that Inouye has been in Congress since 1959, you'd think people would have made up their
minds already whether they like him or not, but apparently not everyone. Or maybe it was due to
malfunctioning voting machines again.
Pence Wins the Values Voters Straw Poll
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In an election that means absolutely nothing, Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN), won the annual
straw poll
at the Values Voters Summit in D.C. with 24% of the vote.
The poll asks who do you want to win the presidency in 2012.
Second was former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee (22%). Following them were Mitt Romney (13%), Newt Gingrich (10%)
and Sarah Palin (7%).
The voters were about a third of the 2000 attendees at the Family Research Council's annual get together, most of
whom are conservative political activists. One of the questions asked of the attendees is what their main concern was. The winning
topic: stopping abortions. This is really quite a different crowd that the tea partiers, who are primarily concerned with taxes and
reducing the federal deficit.
Palin's fifth-place finish means little because she didn't show up.
She had bigger fish to fry: she was in Iowa speaking at the Iowa state Republican Party's annual fundraiser and
meeting Iowa Republican activists--the people who
will play an outsized role in the 2012 Iowa caucuses.
Democrats Confused
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Democratic leaders around the country understand that many tea party positions (e.g., phasing out social security and abolishing the
Dept. of Education) are not popular, but they can't figure out how to package this message to the voters. The NY Times
has an interesting piece
on how they are struggling with the problem.
Lessons from the Midterms
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The elections are still 6 weeks away, but already people are drawing conclusions from them.
Carl Cannon has drawn
these conclusions so far:
- All politics is local.
- All politics is national.
- Money talks.
- Money doesn't mean a thing.
- It's the economy, stupid.
- We're tired of war.
- We're tired of taxes.
- Voting can be cathartic.
In other words, the voters are angry but there is hardly any pattern here and the anger is not focused. Every poll for months
shows that the voters prefer Republicans to Democrats while at the same time they say that the Republicans are even worse than
the Democrats. The voters are just lashing out and whoever is closest gets hit.
Today's Polls: GA IN KS OH PA WI VT-AL
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Georgia |
Mike Thurmond |
33% |
Johnny Isakson* |
52% |
|
|
Sep 15 |
Sep 15 |
Mason Dixon |
Georgia |
Mike Thurmond |
34% |
Johnny Isakson* |
52% |
|
|
Sep 16 |
Sep 16 |
Insider Advantage |
Indiana |
Brad Ellsworth |
34% |
Dan Coats |
50% |
|
|
Sep 14 |
Sep 15 |
Rasmussen |
Kansas |
Lisa Johnston |
24% |
Jerry Moran |
66% |
|
|
Sep 14 |
Sep 16 |
SurveyUSA |
Ohio |
Lee Fisher |
35% |
Rob Portman |
55% |
|
|
Sep 09 |
Sep 14 |
Quinnipiac U. |
Pennsylvania |
Joe Sestak |
36% |
Pat Toomey |
40% |
|
|
Sep 16 |
Sep 16 |
Critical Insights |
Wisconsin |
Russ Feingold* |
44% |
Ron Johnson |
51% |
|
|
Sep 15 |
Sep 15 |
Rasmussen |
VT-AL |
Peter Welch* |
64% |
Paul Beaudry |
30% |
|
|
Sep 13 |
Sep 13 |
Rasmussen |
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