Delaware Republican Senatorial Primary Today     Permalink

A key primary will be held in Delaware today. If Christine O'Donnell manages to defeat Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) for the GOP Senate nomination, it will be the upset of the year and pretty much end any possibility of the Republicans retaking the Senate (unless Ben Nelson, Joe Lieberman, and others jump ship). A PPP poll released Sunday night put O'Donnell in the lead by 3%, but yesterday the NRSC did everything in its power to save Castle. At this point, nobody knows what will happen.

O'Donnell is very flakey and makes Joe Miller of Alaska look like an establishment candidate. FEC filings show that she earned less than $6000 last year and she is worried that people are hiding in the shrubbery around where she lives. The effect of the PPP poll, which is big news in Delaware, could go either way: it could energize her followers to go vote for a candidate who could actually win the nomination or it could energize moderate Republicans to make sure that doesn't happen. We won't know until tomorrow.

Although a Castle victory today would make a Senate takeover at least a possibility, most observers agree with NRSC chairman John Cornyn that it can't be accomplished in one election cycle. The National Journal has a nice rundown of the Senate seats that might switch this time. North Dakota is at the top of their (and everybody's list), with Arkansas being second and Delaware being third if Castle wins.

New Hampshire Republican Senatorial Primary Today     Permalink

Same story in New Hampshire: an unknown tea partier is suddenly posing a real threat to the establishment candidates. In this case it is Ovide Lamontagne threatening Attorney General Kelly Ayotte. A Magellan poll just released puts Ayotte ahead 35% to 31%, with several other candidates in the race. New Hampshire does not have runoffs; it's first past the post. Note that Magellan is a Republican outfit and may have its own agenda in releasing this poll. Still, Joe Miller's recent win in Alaska could have a ripple effect here.

Other Primaries Today     Permalink

There are also primaries in Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin today. There are big battles in numerous House races. An interesting one to watch is NY-15, in which Charlie Rangle (D-NY), who is under an ethical cloud, will face Adam Clayton Powell IV, son of former congressman Adam Clayton Powell, Jr., whom Rangle defeated in a primary in 1970.

Today's Polls: GA WA IL-17 NV-03     Permalink

New Senate Polls

New House Polls

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