Pundits: Dems Keep Senate, GOP Takes House
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The Washington Post asked eight pundits and one high school class for their
predictions
about Tuesday's
election. The eight pundits all agreed the Democrats will hold the Senate. The average value of their
predictions for the number of
Democratic senators after the election (including Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders) is 51.6. The high school class
said the Democratic caucus will have 48 members. All nine expect the Republicans to take control of the House.
The mean number of seats predicted by the eight pundits is 229 for the Republicans to 206 for the Democrats.
Our current score (see above) is 217 for the Republicans, 200 for the Democrats and 18 ties. If the ties break 50-50
(about which more tomorrow), then the score becomes 226 for the GOP and 209 for the Dems, not far off from the
pundits' mean.
The contest also asked about two Senate races and two gubernatorial races. For the Nevada Senate race, six
pundits are betting on Sharron Angle (R) and two are betting on Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV). Colorado is a bit closer,
with the Democrat, Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO), getting thumbs up from three pundits and thumbs down from five.
The two governor's races queried were unanimous: all eight pundits (and the high school kids) predict Jerry Brown (D)
will be elected governor of California and Martin O'Malley (D) will get to stay in the governor's mansion in Maryland.
As a tiebreaker, the Post asked everyone to guess the percentage of the vote Christine O'Donnell (R)
would get in Delaware. The eight pundits' guesses averaged to 40.8%. The high school kids put it at only 31%.
Finally, everyone was allowed one wildcard prediction. Here they are:
- Sean Bielat (R) will beat Barney Frank (D-MA) in MA-04 (Tucker Carlson)
- Charles Djou (R-HI) will be elected to a full term in HI-01 (David Chalian)
- Dave Loebsack (D-IA) will lose IA-02 in a squeaker (Chris Cillizza)
- Ike Skelton (D-MO) will be edged out in MO-04 (Candy Crowley)
- Chip Cravaack (R) will upset Jim Oberstar in MN-08 (John Harris + Jim Vande Hei)
- Ted Strickland will be reelected governor of Ohio (Ariana Huffington)
- Ike Skelton, John Spratt, and Joe Manchin all win (Ken Rudin)
- Eliot Cutler (I) is elected governor of Maine (Amy Walter)
- Lisa Murkowski wins as a write-in candidate in Alaska (Oakton High School)
Obama Campaigning in Four States
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This weekend, President Obama is
campaigning
in four states, Connecticut, Illinois, Ohio, and Pennsylvania
in an effort to hang onto a slim majority in the Senate and help other Democratic candidates. In the Connecticut
Senate race, it looks like Linda McMahon (R) has thrown away $50 million of her own money and will go down to
defeat to Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D), but the governor's race between Dan Malloy (D) and Tom Foley (R)
is a tossup. In Illinois, Obama's own Senate seat is up for grabs, with a virtual tie between Alex Giannoulias (D)
and Mark Kirk (R). In Ohio the Senate race appears lost for the Democrats, but the governor's race in this
swing state is a tossup between Gov. Ted Strickland (D-OH) and former representative John Kasich (R). Ohio also
has many competitive House races. Finally, the Republicans are almost sure to capture the governor's mansion in
Pennsylvania, but the Senate race between Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) and former congressman Pat Tommey (R) is very
close, as are several House races.
What's also interesting is where Obama is not going. There will be no last-minute visits to
Nevada, Colorado, or Washington, where the Senate races are close and he is still moderately popular and also
none to West Virginia, where the Senate race is close but his presence would probably tip the balance to the
Republican, John Raese. Possibly the reason is as much geographical as political. He is visiting four states
east of the Mississippi River; going out West would take a lot more time and mean fewer visits.
A reader had an idea about why Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL) twice told Bill Clinton he would drop out of the
Senate race and throw his support to Gov. Charlie Crist (D-FL) and twice got cold feet and said he wouldn't do it.
State Financial Officer Alex Sink, who is running for governor, may have pleaded with him to stay in to increase
black turnout and thus help her. In other words, it is possible that the national Democrats, focused on holding
the Senate, want Meek out to help Crist, but state Democrats, focused on winning the governor's mansion, want him
in, to win the governorship. In this scenario, there is a tug of war going on between the national Democrats
and the state Democrats, with Meek playing the part of the rope.
His hesitation may be due to the fact that both sides have a case. The national Democrats fear what
kinds of bills the Republicans could pass if they controlled both chambers of Congress, so their priority to hold
the Senate. The state Democrats are afraid of how the Republican-controlled Florida legislature will gerrymander
the new congressional districts unless Sink is governor to veto their plans. Both of them have a strong argument and poor
Meek is caught in the middle. If this story is true (and of course, nobody in Washington or Tallahassee will
talk about it), then Meek isn't being stubborn or egocentric by staying in. He is simply choosing sides for
Sink and the Florida Democrats. He will be unemployed starting in January, and if Sink is elected governor,
she will have many appointments to make and out of gratitude she might just appoint him to a top job in her administration.
Close Vote Expected on Legalizing Marijuana in California
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In addition to choosing candidates for public office Tuesday, Californians will vote on Prop. 19, which
would legalize the cultivation and possession of marijuana for anyone over 21. The most recent
poll
shows it losing 49% to 44% but even a near miss is likely to reverberate well into 2012. Democratic strategists
are thinking about getting similar propositions on the ballot in other states in 2012 to increase the turnout
among young voters, much as the Republicans put gay marriage proposals on the ballot to get conservative voters
to the polls. Politics has become incredibly cynical, with strategists deciding to put items on the ballot
to get their sheep to go vote and, sure enough, the sheep do as instructed.
Today's Polls: AZ CO CT FL IA IL KY MO NH NV NY OH UT WA UT-02
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Arizona |
Rodney Glassman |
32% |
John McCain* |
52% |
|
|
Oct 28 |
Oct 28 |
Rasmussen |
Colorado |
Michael Bennet* |
49% |
Ken Buck |
48% |
|
|
Oct 25 |
Oct 28 |
YouGov |
Connecticut |
Richard Blumenthal |
53% |
Linda McMahon |
43% |
|
|
Oct 25 |
Oct 28 |
YouGov |
Connecticut |
Richard Blumenthal |
54% |
Linda McMahon |
43% |
|
|
Oct 27 |
Oct 29 |
PPP |
Florida |
Kendrick Meek |
16% |
Marco Rubio |
46% |
Charlie Crist |
29% |
Oct 23 |
Oct 27 |
Florida Poll |
Iowa |
Roxanne Conlin |
30% |
Chuck Grassley* |
61% |
|
|
Oct 26 |
Oct 29 |
Selzer |
Illinois |
Alexi Giannoulias |
47% |
Mark Kirk |
44% |
|
|
Oct 25 |
Oct 30 |
YouGov |
Kentucky |
Jack Conway |
44% |
Rand Paul |
52% |
|
|
Oct 25 |
Oct 28 |
YouGov |
Missouri |
Robin Carnahan |
43% |
Roy Blunt |
54% |
|
|
Oct 25 |
Oct 28 |
YouGov |
New Hampshire |
Paul Hodes |
41% |
Kelly Ayotte |
56% |
|
|
Oct 27 |
Oct 27 |
Rasmussen |
Nevada |
Harry Reid* |
47% |
Sharron Angle |
49% |
|
|
Oct 25 |
Oct 30 |
YouGov |
New York |
Kirsten Gillibrand* |
55% |
Joseph DioGuardi |
40% |
|
|
Oct 26 |
Oct 28 |
Marist Coll. |
Ohio |
Lee Fisher |
33% |
Rob Portman |
57% |
|
|
Oct 26 |
Oct 26 |
Rasmussen |
Ohio |
Lee Fisher |
39% |
Rob Portman |
57% |
|
|
Oct 28 |
Oct 30 |
PPP |
Ohio |
Lee Fisher |
40% |
Rob Portman |
56% |
|
|
Oct 20 |
Oct 29 |
Columbus Dispatch |
Utah |
Sam Granato |
30% |
Mike Lee |
57% |
|
|
Oct 25 |
Oct 28 |
Dan Jones |
Washington |
Patty Murray* |
50% |
Dino Rossi |
47% |
|
|
Oct 25 |
Oct 30 |
YouGov |
UT-02 |
Jim Matheson* |
48% |
Morgan Philpot |
35% |
|
|
Oct 25 |
Oct 27 |
Mason Dixon |
UT-02 |
Jim Matheson* |
51% |
Morgan Philpot |
39% |
|
|
Oct 25 |
Oct 28 |
Dan Jones |
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