Bill Clinton Campaigning As If He Were President     Permalink

Normally it is the President who is the leader of his party, but this year it appears to be an ex-President, Bill Clinton, who is flying from state to state holding rallies everywhere. By election day, he will have held over 100 of them, in dozens of states. He is there for Democratic candidates at all levels, with a special preference for candidates who helped his wife in her 2008 presidential run. Although Clinton earned over $100 million from speaking engagements in the past 5 years, he still has the ability to connect with ordinary voters, something President Obama, who is not in his financial league, has trouble with. Part of Clinton's success is that he is a voracious consumer of political news and wherever he goes, can address local issues, whether it is a Boeing tanker deal in Washington state or water issues in New Mexico. Clinton never travels with his wife because as Secretary of State she is forbidden by law from getting involving in electoral politics.

Obama isn't even #2. The other person out there campaigning day and night is the Vice President, Joe Biden. Nevertheless, of late Obama has been out on the hustings, too. Yesterday he was in Seattle campaigning for Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) and focusing on what he has done for women (two Supreme Court appointments, Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, etc.). Today he will visit San Francisco and Los Angeles, where he will hold press events and campaign for Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and then go to Nevada to help the embattled Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV).

The Unseen Battle: State Legislatures     Permalink

While there has been lots of attention paid to the contests for the Senate, House, and governors' mansions, there are also elections for 88 chambers of the state legislatures this year. These are especially important this year because starting in January they will begin the process of gerrymandering the congressional districts (and sometimes their own districts). Currently the Democrats control 55% of the 7,382 state legislative seats, including both chambers in 27 states. The Republicans control 36 chambers and have full control in 14 states. All that could change radically after the election, especially if Republicans pick up governorships in key states. Generally, congressional districts are drawn up by state legislatures and then approved or vetoed by the governor. If one party controls both chambers of the legislature and the governor's mansion, it can do whatever it wants, and with modern data and software, some of the districts could be very exotic. If the power is divided, the parties have to compromise.

Just as the party controlling the White House nearly always takes a drubbing in the Senate and House during midterms, it also gets beaten at the state level. In 25 of the past 27 midterms, the President's party has lost seats in the state legislatures. The only exceptions were in 1934, when people rallied behind FDR, and 2002, when people rallied behind George Bush in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks.

DCCC Borrows $17 Million     Permalink

The DCCC has borrowed $17 million for last-minute TV ads. With $25 million in the bank, this gives them $42 million to spend in the final push. The NRSC has $11 million in the bank but has not taken out any loans. However, the Republicans are getting massive aid from outside groups, including the Chamber of Commerce and Karl Rove's "shadow RNC" American Crossroads, which has raised $24 million so far. While donors to the DCCC and NRCC are limited by law in how much they can give and their names are published, donors to these outside groups can give as much as they want and can remain anonymous. Corporations--possibly including foreign ones controlled by their respective governments--are financing the Chamber of Commerce's ads. The Republicans have also been very successful at getting millionaires to give large contributions to these groups, which is much easier than amassing thousands of small donations. In effect, the McCain-Feingold campaign-finance reform law has become obsolete since much of the campaign financing is now done by outsiders.

Early Voting in Nevada     Permalink

In one of the most contentious Senate races (Nevada) as well as a couple of key House races, early voting has started. The Senate race is Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) vs. tea party favorite Sharron Angle (R). Two of Nevada's three congressional districts are held by Democrats (Shelley Berkley in NV-01 and Dina Titus in NV-03) and both are in play. Election officials expect over half the voters to cast early ballots in the state. In midterm elections, when turnout is typically low, the long early voting period gives both parties more time to get their voters to the polls. This helps Democrats more than Republicans because Republicans always turn out in large numbers in midterm elections without much prodding, whereas Democrats (especially younger and minority voters) do not.

Nevada is not the only state with early voting, of course. It has begun all over the country. In North Carolina, for example, 156,000 people have already voted, 55% of whom are Republicans. This is a huge reversal of the Democrats' 58% to 42% margin in early voting in 2008. In Iowa, however, 55% of the 145,000 early ballots have come from Democrats--way down from a 2 to 1 advantage in 2008. It is the same story everywhere. In terms of party registration, the Democrats still lead, but Republicans are fired up and voting and Democrats are not.

Today's Polls: AR CT NY PA MA-04 MD-01 MI-07 MI-09 ND-AL PA-06     Permalink

New Senate Polls

New House Polls

If you like this Website, tell your friends. You can also share by clicking this button