Early Voting Has Already Started     Permalink

While election day is Nov. 2, voting is well underway in many states already. Some states, such as Colorado and Florida allow people to come to the polls and vote before election day and all states allow absentee ballots to be cast way before election day. In fact, in Oregon and Washington, nearly all votes are cast by absentee ballot. Nationally, 30% of all votes were cast early in 2008.

Early voting has huge consequences for campaigns and strategy. Some candidates and organizations (e.g., Jerry Brown and the DSCC) have hoarded their money for a big advertising push close to election day. But if such ads convince voters to change their minds after they have already cast their ballots, it will be too late. Currently, all indicators say that the Republicans are leading, and votes being cast now are likely to reflect this. Even if something dramatic happens to move the needle towards the Democrats in the next 3 weeks, those votes already cast are locked in.

What's the Matter with Wisconsin?     Permalink

For a lot of political observers, one of the strangest twists of 2010 is the Wisconsin senatorial race, in which an unknown but rich plastics manufacturer, Ron Johnson, who has never run for public office before, came out of nowhere to lead popular three-term senator Russ Feingold (D-WI). Johnson jumped on the tea party train early on, denouncing Obama and claiming he has done nothing right since taking office. He has said that as a senator he would be a messenger (think: grandstander) like Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) rather than a legislator. It is an interesting approach, but one that works a lot better in the minority than in the majority. If the Republicans take control of the Senate, then people will expect them to solve the country's myriad problems, not just make speeches. Feingold admits that he has a tough fight on his hands, but says he has had them before and has won in the end. The ironic thing about this race is that Johnson is attacking Feingold for being an Obama clone when, in fact, Feingold is quite independent and frequently does not follow the party line. Politico has a story about how this race developed.

Voters Love Pork     Permalink

A new poll shows that the voters are very inconsistent. One of the big news stories of the past year has been the rise of the tea party, one of whose basic ideas is ending earmarks, commonly known as pork. Yet the poll shows that voters love pork when it is in their district. In other words, voters seem to want to keep pork when it is for them. They are only against other people's pork. Since some tea party candidates are sure to be elected to Congress, it will be interesting to see how they behave and vote when they actually have the chance to act on their convictions. The smart money is betting on the pig.

Estate Tax Will Come Up During Lame-Duck Session of Congress     Permalink

The lame-duck session of Congress that will be held after the election should provide some real fireworks. While the Bush income tax cuts have gotten a lot of attention, an even bigger battle could be brewing over the estate tax, which is currently 0% but scheduled to return to its pre-2001 rates on January 1, 2011. For the truly wealthy, being able to pass billions of dollars to heirs untaxed is a lot more important than raising the top income tax rate by 4%. The fight will be particularly viscious because while Democrats generally approve of slightly higher taxes on the rich, they are very much against dynasties based on inherited wealth. If the Republicans take control of either one or both chambers of Congress on election day, a lame-duck session of Congress (including many incumbents who just lost) that does something they really oppose will be quite a spectacle. However, all Congress has to do to reinstate the old estate taxes is do nothing--something Congress has frequently been able to achieve. Then the old rates will pop back and it will be up to the new Congress to pass a bill to reduce them again. But such a bill is likely to be vetoed by President Obama.

Today's Polls: CA NH OH IN-07 ME-01 PA-03     Permalink

New Senate Polls

New House Polls

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