4:30 P.M. EDT CNN Calls Colorado for Bennet     Permalink

With 90% of the precincts now reporting, CNN has called the Colorado Senate race for Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO), who leads by 15,000 votes.

4:00 P.M. EDT More House Races Added     Permalink

11:55 A.M. EDT Several Governors' Races Still Not Determined     Permalink

While the results of most of the governors' races are now in, a few are still hanging in the balance. In Connecticut, Dan Malloy (D) has a lead of 1600 votes, with 92% of the precincts tallied. However, Republicans intend to go to court to fight a two-hour extension in parts of Bridgeport ordered by a judge yesterday due to a ballot shortage. They claim that these should not count. The votes have been kept separate from the other votes so they can be discarded if a future judge orders them to be.

In Illinois, Gov. Pat Quinn (D-IL), who got his job when his predecessor was impeached and convicted, clings to an 8000-vote lead with 99% of the precincts reporting. However, the absentee ballots have yet to be counted.

In Maine, Republican Paul LePage leads independent Eliot Cutler by about 7500 votes with 92% of the precincts reporting. Democrat Libby Mitchell is far behind.

Oregon is another cliffhanger. Former pro basketball player Chris Dudley currently leads former governor John Kitzhaber (D) by 15,000 votes. However, tens of thousands of votes remain to be tallied in vote-rich Multnomah County, where Kitzhaber has been racking up 70% of the votes.

11:30 EDT CNN Calls Florida Governor's Race for Scott     Permalink

CNN has now declared Rick Scott (R) the winner in the Florida governor's contest. Initially Scott was given no chance at all, but he defeated Attorney General Bill McCollum in the Republican primary and has now apparently won the election. He currently leads by about 50,000 votes with 89% of the vote counted.

8:33 A.M. EDT Tea Party Costs Republicans Control of the Senate     Permalink

The Colorado, Alaska, and Washington Senate race results aren't final yet, but if Ken Buck wins in Colorado, Patty Murray wins in Washington, and Lisa Murkowski or Joe Miller wins in Alaska, the Democrats will end up with 51 seats in the Senate. Of these, six are tea party candidates: Ken Buck (R-CO), Marco Rubio (R-FL), Rand Paul (R-KY), Pat Toomey (R-PA), Jim DeMint (R-SC), and Mike Lee (R-UT). So the tea party had a good night? In a way. DeMint is a popular incumbent and the guy running against him was a joke (possibly placed on the ballot by a dirty trick). Lee was an insurgent, but any Republican, including the incumbent Sen. Robert Bennett (R-UT), could have won in Utah. Buck and Paul both won tough primaries and fought their way to victory. Toomey didn't have a primary but he did have a strong opponent in the general election. Rubio scared off Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL) and ran an excellent campaign. So it looks like the tea party did well.

Not so fast. It's like the Sherlock Holmes case of the dog that did not bark. Suppose there had been no tea party movement at all. What would have happened? Almost assuredly Trey Grayson (R), Mitch McConnell's personal pick, would have won in Kentucky, Jane Norton would have won in Colorado against weak appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO), and Charlie Crist would have won in Florida as a Republican. Toomey has been running for the senate for years and probably would have won anyway, with or without the tea party. In Alaska, Lisa Murkowski would have easily been elected and without the need for posters showing MUR + picture of cow + picture of ski to teach people her name. So in these races, what the tea party did was replace one Republican by another one. The tea party effect on the partisan composition of the Senate was nil here.

But what about Nevada and Delaware, where tea party candidates also won upsets in primaries? In Nevada, Harry Reid is exceedingly unpopular and weak. If the establishment Republican candidate, Sue Lowden, the former chair of the state party (and a former beauty queen to boot), had won, there is every reason to believe she would have beaten Reid. Reid's strategy against his actual opponent, Sharron Angle, was to paint her as a lunatic way outside the mainstream. That wouldn't have worked against Lowden. Conclusion: the tea party cost the Republicans Nevada.

Next is Delaware. If the enormously popular Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) had won his primary, he would have been the overwhelming favorite to win the Senate seat. In fact, the assumption that he would be the GOP nominee scared off all the state's top Democrats, including Attorney General Beau Biden, son of the Vice President. Conclusion: in the absence of Christine O'Donnell's tea-party powered win, the Republicans would have won this seat easily.

Adding them up we get 1 + 1 = 2. With conventional candidates, the Republicans would have won Nevada and Delaware, along with Kentucky, Colorado, Florida, Alaska, and Utah, albeit with different people (in Alaska, maybe the same person, but that is not clear yet). The only possible conclusion is that the tea party cost the Republicans control of the Senate. So now they are behind 49 to 51 instead of being ahead 51 to 49. Watch NRSC chairman grit his teeth while praising his winners today. He knows the score full well. Of course, he also knows the Democrats have 23 Senate seats on the line in 2012 vs. the Republicans 10.

Campaigning is one thing, governing is another. It is a given that no major legislation will pass the 112th Congress. Anything the tea party people dream up in the House will die in the Senate, often without even coming up for a vote. But there are a couple of bills that must pass. One coming up fairly soon is a bill to increase the limit on the federal debt. If the tea party winners really dig in their heels and refuse to approve a higher limit, it could lead to a government shutdown. Failure to pass a budget could also lead to one. Some people would be in favor of that--until they realize some of the consequences, which could include not sending out social security checks, grounding all commercial air traffic (which requires government TSA screeners at airports and government air traffic controllers), among other things.

Democrats Hold the Senate     Permalink

By the narrowest of margins, the Democrats appear to have held the Senate. Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) decisively won his race over tea party favorite Sharron Angle (R), but tea party candidates won Senate races in Kentucky, Florida, Utah, and Pennsylvania. In Alaska, "write-in" came in first with 40% with Joe Miller second at 34%. That may be a large enough margin that Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) survives any recounts and court battles.

In Colorado, Ken Buck (R) is leading by several thousand votes, but there are many provisional and absentee ballots yet to be counted. It could still go either way.

Washington is also close, but Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) has a slightly bigger lead there than Buck has in Colorado. Here, too, the overseas and provisional ballots may be decisive.

GOP Sweeps House     Permalink

The Republican Party swept to power in the House yesterday, winning at least 54 seats. At present the score is 234 for the Republicans and 180 for the Democrats, with 21 seats, mostly in the West, still not counted. By any measure, the country is going through a difficult period, this being the third straight wave election in a row. With 2012 being a presidential year, which generally favors the incumbent party, 2012 could be the fourth wave in a row, putting Democrats back in power again, especially if the newly elected Republicans are unable to produce results. All the polls have shown that while the voters are angry with the Democrats, they have even less faith in the Republicans.

Collecting the House results will take some time. Some of the races are at the bottom of this page. Just keep scrolling down.

Republicans Pick Up Governor's Seats     Permalink

Many states had hot battles for the governor's mansion. The party in control changed in at least California, Wyoming, New Mexico, Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio,Tennessee, and Pennsylvania. All of these are changes from a Democrat to a Republican except California, where Jerry Brown won easily from Meg Whitman. Minnesota, Illinois, Vermont, Connecticut, and Florida are still too close to call. The current state of he governors' races is given at the bottom of the page.

California Bucks the Trend     Permalink

California often goes its own way and it did so again yesterday. While Republicans were running the table everywhere else, they didn't fare so well in the Golden State. Jerry Brown (D), once the state's youngest governor, now becomes the state's oldest governor. Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) kept her seat in a tough race against Carly Fiorina (R). The state elected a Democratic lieutenant governor, Gavin Newsom, a Democratic Secretary of State, Debra Bowen, a Democratic Treasurer, Bill Lockyer, a Democratic Controller, John Chiang, and a Democratic Insurance Commissioner, Dave Jones. The Attorney General's race is too close to call.

Californians also got to vote on many propositions. Prop. 19, which would have legalized marijuana, failed, getting only 46% of the vote. Proposition 23, which would have gutted the state's tough antipollution laws, failed with only 40% of the vote. Prop. 25, which would allow the state budget to pass with a simple majority vote in the state assembly and senate passed with 55% of the vote.

Prop. 20 also passed. It takes the job of redistricting the state's congressional districts out of the hands of the state legislature and gives it to a citizen's commission. The citizens on the commission are chosen by a board of three accountants picked at random. While this sounds like a good way to end gerrymandering at first glance, the idea of taking control of the process away from elected officials and giving the real power to three random accountants is hardly democracy in action. By the luck of the draw, the three accountants could all be Democrats or all be Republicans. Also, who says accountants are the best people to pick the commission? Why not one teacher, one nurse, and one firefighter. It's completely arbitrary.

Senate Results

House Results     Permalink

Governors' Races     Permalink

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