Hello Economy, Goodbye Cosmetics on Animals
Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch no longer exist, A.I.G. is being radcially
restructured, and the Dow dropped 500 points yesterday. Guess what? The economy
is back. The Washington Post's Dan Balz has a good
piece
on the political fallout. People are going to be asking the candidates: "How are you going to
fix this mess and prevent a repetition?" The election will probably hang on the answers.
The moderator of the first debate (Jim Lehrer), on Sept. 26 at the University of Mississippi, is probably
going to bring up the subject as well.
Voting Machines Still Don't Work
Current voting machines can still be hacked easily.
Computer scientists at the University of California at Santa Barbara
commissioned by the California secretary of state,
Debra Bowen,
have shown how easy it is. Read the
story
or better yet, watch the
video.
Bowen is an opponent of electronic voting machines and campaigned for office on a platform
of election reform and making sure every vote is counted correctly. She defeated a sitting
secretary of state who maintained that everything was fine with the voting systems.
527 Groups Rev Up
The 527s are starting to rev up. A group called Brave New PAC made
an
ad
featuring Philip Butler, who was at Annapolis with John McCain
and also a POW with him in Vietnam and who knows him well. In the
ad Butler says McCain can blow up and go off like a Roman candle.
He added that McCain is "not somebody I would like to see with his
finger near the red button." This ad was clearly inspired by the
Swift Boaters of 2004 who attacked Kerry on his war record.
An ad from the American Issues Project, a Republican group, made an
ad linking Obama to Bill Ayers, a 1960s radical turned professor of
education.
Over 30 Congressmen Are Unopposed
While many House races are highly competitive (see our
list of Hot House races)
there are also races that so are uncompetitive that one party or the other didn't even bother to run
a candidate. Here is the list.
AL-06 |
R+25 |
|
Spencer Bachus |
AL-07 |
D+17 |
Artur Davis |
|
AR-01 |
D+1 |
Marion Berry* |
|
AR-02 |
R+0 |
Vic Snyder* |
|
AR-03 |
R+11 |
|
John Boozman* |
AR-04 |
D+0 |
Mike Ross* |
|
CA-19 |
R+10 |
|
George Radonovich* |
FL-03 |
D+16 |
Corrine Brown* |
|
FL-17 |
D+35 |
Kendrick Meek* |
|
FL-20 |
D+18 |
Debbie Wasserman-Schultz* |
|
GA-04 |
D+22 |
Hank Johnson* |
|
GA-05 |
D+23 |
John Lewis* |
|
IL-02 |
D+35 |
Jesse Jackson, Jr.* |
|
IL-04 |
D+13 |
Luis Gutierrez* |
|
IL-07 |
D+35 |
Danny Davis* |
|
IL-17 |
D+5 |
Philip Hare* |
|
MI-14 |
D+33 |
John Conyers* |
|
MN-08 |
D+4 |
James Oberstar* |
|
MO-01 |
D+26 |
William Clay, Jr.* |
|
NY-06 |
D+38 |
Gregory Meeks* |
|
NY-09 |
D+14 |
Anthony Weiner* |
|
OR-04 |
D+0 |
Peter DeFazio* |
|
PA-14 |
D+22 |
Michael Doyle* |
|
TN-06 |
R+4 |
Bart Gordon* |
|
TN-08 |
D+0 |
John Tanner* |
|
TN-09 |
D+18 |
Steve Cohen* |
(no Republican) |
TX-01 |
R+17 |
|
Louie Gohmert* |
TX-02 |
R+12 |
|
Ted Poe* |
TX-05 |
R+16 |
|
Jeb Hensarling* |
TX-11 |
R+25 |
|
Mike Conaway* |
TX-21 |
R+13 |
|
Lamar Smith* |
VA-03 |
D+18 |
Robert Scott* |
|
VA-09 |
R+7 |
Rick Boucher* |
|
VT-AL |
D+8 |
Peter Welch* |
|
WI-04 |
D+20 |
Gwen Moore* |
|
WI-05 |
R+12 |
|
Jim Sensenbrenner* |
WV-01 |
R+6 |
Alan Mollohan* |
|
The reasons why a congressman is unopposed can vary. Sometimes there district so heavily
tilted one way or the other that one of the parties can't find anybody willing to put in
the effort. Inner cities with large black majorities tend not to be prime hunting grounds
for Republicans and rural areas where everybody hunts are not always Democrat friendly.
In some cases the district has been gerrymandered to achieve its balance, but not always.
here are some examples of the districts listed above that exhbit major gerrymandering.
Some others were shown in on this site
Sep. 18, 2006.
In still other cases, the incumbent is just so popular despite belonging to the wrong
party that a run is futile. And in a few cases there are other reasons, such as the chosen
candidate failing to file on time.
Today's Polls
We have 10 presidential polls today.
On the whole, the McCain post-convention bounce is still visible,
but that could change fairly quickly as the financial crisis moves
front and center.
Colorado |
46% |
48% |
Sep 14 |
Sep 14 |
Rasmussen |
Florida |
44% |
49% |
Sep 14 |
Sep 14 |
Rasmussen |
New York |
46% |
41% |
Sep 08 |
Sep 10 |
Siena Coll. |
Ohio |
42% |
46% |
Sep 10 |
Sep 13 |
Suffolk U. |
Ohio |
45% |
48% |
Sep 14 |
Sep 14 |
Rasmussen |
Ohio |
45% |
49% |
Sep 12 |
Sep 14 |
SurveyUSA |
Pennsylvania |
47% |
47% |
Sep 14 |
Sep 14 |
Rasmussen |
Utah |
32% |
64% |
Sep 10 |
Sep 10 |
Rasmussen |
Virginia |
48% |
48% |
Sep 14 |
Sep 14 |
Rasmussen |
Virginia |
50% |
46% |
Sep 12 |
Sep 14 |
SurveyUSA |
We also have 3 Senate polls.
Nothing surprising here.
Iowa |
Tom Harkin* |
53% |
Christopher Reed |
34% |
Sep 08 |
Sep 10 |
Selzer |
Minnesota |
Al Franken |
37% |
Norm Coleman* |
41% |
Sep 10 |
Sep 12 |
Princeton Survey |
Virginia |
Mark Warner |
57% |
Jim Gilmore |
34% |
Sep 12 |
Sep 14 |
SurveyUSA |
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-- The Votemaster
|