Hot House Races in 2008

Below is a list of House races likely to be top priority in 2008. Most of them meet one of these criteria:

1. The incumbent won by 2% or less in 2006.
2. The incumbent is in the other party's territory and did not win convincingly.

The first criterion is clear but the second one needs some explanation. Political analyst Charlie Cook has invented a political index called the Partisan Voting Index (PVI), which measures how a district leans. It is computed by averaging the Democratic vote minus the Republican vote for the last two presidential elections, and then subtracting from this the national average. A rating of D+3 means that the district voted 3% more Democratic than the country as a whole and a rating of R+4 means that it voted 4% more Republican than the country as a whole. The list below includes those districts in which a Democrat occupies a seat in a district with a Republican PVI or vice versa, except that any incumbent who won by 10% or more is considered safe and is not listed. For example, Nine-term Democratic congressman Chet Edwards (President Bush's own congressman) occupies the House seat in TX-17, which has a PVI of R+18, but Edwards won in 2006 by an 18% margin, so he is considered safe. On the other hand, Democrat Harry Mitchell won by only 5% in AZ-05, which is R+4, so he is considered at risk.

As time goes on, other races will be added when local events suggest a real horse race. For example, if the FBI begins investigating a representative in a swing district, that signals trouble for the incumbent, even if the PVI favors the incumbent. Open seats are almost always competitive except in very partisan districts.

Polls for House races are available as a Web page and also in .csv format.

AL-02      PVI: R+13

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Bobby Bright (D)	Jay Love (R)	Rep. Terry Everett (R-AL) is retiring. In theory, an open seat in an R+13 district in Alabama ought to be low-hanging fruit for the Republican Party. But the Democratic contender here, Bobby Bright, is the popular three-term mayor of Montgomery, the district's largest city. The Republican is a rich businessman, Jay Love, who ran a chain of sandwich shops and then was elected to the state legislature and is currently serving his second term there. While Bright will carry the Montgomery area easily, any generic Republican will do well in the district's rural areas. If the Republicans can't win in AL-02, they can't win anywhere. If the Democrats win this district, it will be part of a national landslide in which they pick up 20, 30, maybe 40 seats.

AL-05      PVI: R+6

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Parker Griffith (D)	Wayne Parker (R)	Bud Cramer (D) is retiring. In theory, an open seat in an R+6 district ought to go to the Republican, but an open seat in nearby MS-01, which is even more Republican, just went to the Democrat by 8 points. Two Republicans slugged it out in the primary, and wealthy insurance executive Wayne Parker won. Lawn signs that say "Parker for Congress" better have a party logo on them.

AK-AL      PVI: R+14

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Don Young (R)	Ethan Berkowitz (D)	Normally an 18-term congressman who wants to be reelected just has to show up. But Don Young is going to have to fight to keep his job because he is the subject of a federal investigation concerning bribes and failure to report gifts. He did manage to beat back a primary challenge from Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell, though. Now he has to defeat the Democratic opponent, Ethan Berkowitz, former minority leader in the Alaska House. There are so many scandals in Alaska now that all Berkowitz has to do is say: "Had enough yet?" to beat Young.

AZ-01      PVI: R+2

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Sydney Hay (R)	Ann Kirkpatrick (D)	Congressman Rick Renzi has announced that he will retire in 2009. He is under indictment for various crimes and is severely damaged goods. His retirement means there will be a battle royal in this swing district. While Arizona tends to vote Republican in Presidential elections, the Democrats picked up two House seats here in 2006: Gabrielle Giffords in AZ-08 and Harry Mitchell in AZ-05. After bitter primary fights, the Democrats nominated Ann Kirkpatrick and the Republicans nominated Sydney Hay. Either way, Arizona will send another woman to Congress.

AZ-05      PVI: R+4

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Harry Mitchell (D)	David Schweikert (R)	Harry Mitchell's victory over J.D. Hayworth was an unexpected upset in a somewhat Republican district. Expect a fight in 2008. The apparent winner of a bitter Republican primary is Maricopa County treasurer, David Schweikert.

AZ-08      PVI: R+1

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Gabrielle Giffords (D)	Tim Bee (R)	Gabrielle Giffords is a first-term congresswoman who won an open seat in 2006 against a Republican so far to the right that much of his party abandoned him as hopeless. This time she has a much stronger opponent, the President of the Arizona state Senate, Tim Bee. Of course, this time she is the incumbent in what is likely to be another Democratic year. Nevertheless, this will be a closely watched race.

CA-04      PVI: R+11

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Tom McClintock (R)	Charlie Brown (D)	In 2006, Rep. John Doolittle defeated his Democratic opponent, Col. Charlie Brown, a retired Air Force pilot, by 49% to 46%. However, the ongoing FBI investigation of both Doolittle and his wife, both of whom have ties to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff, got to be too much and in January Doolittle announced that he was not running for reelection. Brown is running again. The Republican candidate is Tom McClintock, a state senator who represents a district 400 miles from CA-04. McClintock was first elected to the state assembly at 26 and later graduated to the state senate. He has run for state controller and governor and lost. He is extremely conservative, perhaps even too much for this heavily Republican district.

CA-11      PVI: R+3

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jerry McNerney (D)	Dean Andal (R)	Jerry McNerney is a newbie to politics and won in 2006 because the incumbent, Richard Pombo, was the biggest recipient in Congress of money from convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff. McNerney is an engineer with a special expertise in wind energy. He has a seat on the House subcomittee for energy and environment where he will certainly try to push the nation to use more renewable energy instead of importing it from the unstable Middle East. McNerney's challenger will be former assemblyman Dean Andal (R). The Republican mayor of Stockton, the district's biggest city, has endorsed McNerney, saying he has done well for the district in his first term. Beating an incumbent congressman who is not under indictment is always tough, and when your own party isn't 100% behind you, it is very tough.

CO-04      PVI: R+9

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Marilyn Musgrave (R)	Betsy Markey (D)	The battle of the blondes. Marilyn Musgrave was first elected to the House in 2002 when Rep. Bob Schaffer (R) retired (Schaffer is now running for the Senate). In 2006, she barely held on, winning by fewer than 6000 votes. The American Conservative Union rates Musgrave as the most conservative member of the House. She strongly opposes abortion, same-sex marriage, gun control, the whole nine yards. While her district is conservative (R+9), her state is not. Her big problem this time not so much her opponent, Betsy Markey, a former aide to Sen. Ken Salazar (D-CO), but the rest of the Democratic ticket. Barack Obama and Mark Udall are on top of the ticket and will ensure a huge Democratic turnout. Markey may well ride to victory on their coattails. The DCCC will be pumping money into this district like there is no tomorrow. Given Musgrave's outspoken views, expect fireworks.

CT-02      PVI: D+8

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Joe Courtney (D)	Sean Sullivan (R)	Freshman Joe Courtney won his race by only 83 votes, but as a Democrat in a district with a PVI of D+8, he's probably safe. His opponent is Sean Sullivan the former commander of the Groton Naval Base. The only reason for even including this race in the list at all is Courtney's microscopic victory last time, but in practice, Sullivan has no real chance of winning.

CT-04      PVI: D+5

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Chris Shays (R)	Jim Himes (D)	Chris Shays is the only Republican representative in all of New England and he hung on by the skin of his teeth in 2006. A businessman, Jim Himes, who runs a company that builds low-cost housing is his opponent. Knocking off the last New England Republican congressman is going to be a prize the Democrats will strive mightily for. In no other region of the country is either party shut out. Even in the South the Democrats maintain a real presence, holding the majorities in the Arkansas, Tennessee, and North Carolina congressional delegations (as well as the governorships in all three states).

FL-08      PVI: R+3

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Ric Keller (R)	Alan Grayson (D)	In 2000, Ric Keller promised that if elected, he would not serve more than four terms. He changed his mind and is now running for his fifth term. His opponent is a hard-charging lawyer named Alan Grayson who has repeatedly sued Iraqi contractors on behalf of whistleblowers. This promises to be a close race.

FL-13      PVI: R+4

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Vern Buchanan (R)	Christine Jennings (D)	The winner in 2006 isn't really known yet, let alone 2008. This is Katherine Harris district, where there were 18,000 undervotes. The new Congress will probably have to figure out what to do here, but they are taking their good time about it, so de facto, Buchanan effectively won. Since Jennings is wealthy, retired, and under the impression that she actually won, she has decided to run again in 2008.

FL-15      PVI: R+4

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Bill Posey (R)	Steve Blythe (D)	Rep. Dave Weldon (R), a mere stripling, is retiring at 54 for unknown reasons leading to a battle in this R+4 district that runs from Vero Beach to Merritt Island along the Atlantic coast. The Republican candidate is state senator Bill Posey. The Democrat is Steve Blythe, a physician who is emphasizing health care issues.

FL-16      PVI: R+2

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Tim Mahoney (D)	Tom Rooney (R)	FL-16 is Mark "Pedophile" Foley's (swing) district. Mahoney won it in 2006 because Foley's name was still on the ballot. It isn't in 2008. To his good fortune there was a bitter Republican primary here in 2008, barely won by Tom Rooney, a scion of the family that owns the Pittsburgh Steelers football team. As with the Democratic presidential primary, nasty primaries are never good for party unity. The district is badly gerrymandered, covering parts of eight counties from the Atlantic coast to the Gulf coast. Mahoney is a conservative Christian, which however, did not stop him from getting into his own sex scandal with a staffer. This may well doom him.

FL-21      PVI: R+6

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R)	Raul Martinez (D)	Havana-born Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart is the only person ever to occupy this seat created after the 1990 census. Up until now he has never had much of a challenger but this year the former 24-year mayor of Hialeah (also born in Cuba) is giving him a real run for his money. The district is R+6, but South Florida is becoming more Democratic every year and Martinez is as well known as Diaz-Balart. Martinez was indicted on multiple charges for extortion and racketeering in 1990. After three trials, he was acquitted on some of the charges, and ended up with hung juries on the others (with an 11-1 vote for acquittal). Eventually all the charges were dropped. With two well-known Cuban-American politicians running in this heavily Latino district, it is turning into a real horse race. Diaz-Balart's brother is also a Florida congressman.

FL-24      PVI: R+3

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Tom Feeney (R)	Suzanne Kosmas (D)	Tom Feeney is a relatively young (50) and very conservative congressman and former speaker of the state house. He was very active in the battle to get George Bush's victory in Florida in 2000 certified quickly. His district is only R+3, and since the Democrats picked up R+5, R+7, and R+10 districts in special elections this Spring, he is a prime target. Furthermore, Feeney was involved in the Abramoff scandal. He was one of the three congressmen Abramoff flew to Scotland for golf outings. The other two are Bob Ney (who is now in prison for taking bribes) and Tom DeLay (who is under indictment). Feeney escaped in 2006 because he faced a little-known and underfunded challenger. Feeney's opponent this time is former state representative Suzanne Kosmas, who has the full (financial) backing of the DCCC, Emily's List, and other organizations.

GA-08      PVI: R+8

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jim Marshall (D)	Rick Goddard (R)	Incumbent Jim Marshall (D) won his race by less than 2% in a district with a PVI of R+8, so he will definitely be targeted in 2008. His opponent is retired U.S. Air Force Major General Rick Goddard.

GA-12      PVI: D+2

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
John Barrow (D)	John Stone (R)	Incumbent John Barrow (D) won reelection by 864 votes, so the Republicans will go after him in 2008, even though the district has a PVI of D+2. The winner of the Republican primary was John Stone, an aide to the late Rep. Charlie Norwood (R-GA), who is trying to follow in the footsteps of his former boss.

IL-08      PVI: R+5

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Melissa Bean (D)	Steve Greenberg (R)	Melissa Bean staved off a challenge and was reelected by 5%, but the district has a PVI index of R+5, so she will have a fight on her hands this time and every time. But she is well prepared and has done it before. Her opponent in 2008 will be a rich businessman, Steve Greenberg, who owns an arts-and-crafts distributor and was formerly a minor-league hockey player. With Illinois senator Barack Obama on top of the ticket this year, Illinois Democrats will be turning out like never before and probably all of them in her district will be voting for her. She'll probably make it.

IL-10      PVI: D+4

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Mark Kirk (R)	Dan Seals (D)	Republican Mark Kirk was reelected by 6% although the district has a PVI rating of D+4, so he always to keep an eye over his shoulder to see who's chasing him. Marketing executive Dan Seals, who ran against Kirk in 2006 and got 47% of the vote won the 2008 primary and is the Democratic candidate again. While Seals lost in 2006, this could be a big year for charismatic young black politicians from Chicago. Obama is going to sweep Illinois and it is hard to imagine many Obama supporters in IL-10, which leans Democratic anyway, voting for Kirk. Could be close.

IL-11      PVI: R+1

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Marty Ozinga (R)	Debbie Halvorson (D)	This seat opened up due to the retirement of Rep. Jerry Weller (R). The district's PVI is R+1, which ensures a huge battle here. The Democratic candidate is Debbie Halvorson, majority leader of the Illinois state Senate. The Republican candidate is Marty Ozinga, who owns one of the largest ready-mix concrete businesses in the country. This is a classic battle between an experienced Democratic politician who has come up through the ranks vs. a rich Republican businessman who can self fund the race. Historically, the politician wins most of the time, both due to existing name recognition and knowledge of how you run a campaign. While state senate districts are smaller than congressional districts, most of the knowledge you acquire campaigning for the state senate also applies to campaigning for the House. Someone who has never run for office doesn't have an experienced staff and has to learn everything "on the job." It's tricky.

IN-02      PVI: R+4

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Joe Donnelly (D)	Luke Puckett (R)	Joe Donnelly defeated Chris Chocola in this somewhat (R+4) Republican district in 2006. He will have to work hard to hold it, but he has a decent chance. He has a fairly conservative voting record in Congress, which will ease his task. The Republicans had a nasty primary which will definitely help. It was won by a conservative businessman, Luke Puckett, who spent a number of years as a Christian missionary in Central America. It will be close, but incumbents always have the edge.

IN-08      PVI: R+9

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Brad Ellsworth (D)	Greg Goode (R)	Brad Ellsworth is a blue-dog Democrat, probably the most conservative of the three Democratic pickups in Indiana. He has a good chance of hanging on, but the Republicans would love to mount a serious challenge given that the district has a PVI of R+9. Trouble is, the only announced candidate, Greg Goode, a Ph.D. student at Virginia Tech Univ., not exactly the kind of candidate who knocks off a sitting congressman. The Hill, a Capitol newspaper, rated Ellsworth the best-looking member of Congress, with a rough-hewn look reflecting the sheriff he used to be.

IN-09      PVI: R+7

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Baron Hill (D)	Mike Sodrel (R)	As Yogi Berra put it: it is deja vu all over again. And again. And again. This is the fourth straight matchup between Baron Hill and Mike Sodrel. Hill beat Sodrel in 2002 and 2006 but lost in 2004. Hill is thus currently the incumbent. Since Hill has won 2 out of 3 and is the incumbent, he probably has a slight edge, but this is a Republican district in a Republican state.

KS-02      PVI: R+7

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Nancy Boyda (D)	Lynn Jenkins (R)	This upset in 2006 by Democrat Nancy Boyda (D) was completely under the radar. Nobody saw it coming in this R+7 district. But the Democratic wave was just too strong for incumbent Jim Ryun. But the Republicans are fighting hard to get it back. Former incumbent Jim Ryun wanted a rematch. However, he was defeated in a bitter primary by state treasurer Lynn Jenkins. This will be a top-tier race.

LA-06      PVI: R+7

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Don Cazayoux (D)	Bill Cassidy (R)	Earlier this year Don Cazayoux won this open seat in a special election. In November he has to defend it. In the special election, the Republicans threw the book at him, trying to tie him to Barack Obama and calling him "Don Tax-a-you." It didn't work. Now he is an incumbent. However, the Republican turnout will be stonger in the general election than it was in the special election. Also, Cazayoux' special election opponent has dropped out of the race and been replaced by a far stronger one, state senator Bill Cassidy. Also, the Republicans got a really lucky break here when Democratic state representative, Michael Jackson, filed to run as an independent. He is black and although he has no chance to win, he might well pull off enough black voters to defeat Cazayoux.

MI-07      PVI: R+2

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Tim Walberg (R)	Mark Schauer (D)	Tim Walberg is a vulnerable Republican freshman who beat an unknown Democratic opponent in 2006 50% to 46% despite having outspent her 25 to 1. He is high on the list of targets prepared by DCCC chairman Chris van Hollen (D-MD), who has $50 million in the bank to spend in 2008. Walberg's opponent is Mark Schauer, minority leader of the Michigan state Senate. Definitely a key race to watch.

MI-09      PVI: R+0

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Joe Knollenberg (R)	Gary Peters (D)	Michigan has been very hard hit economically and Republicans are going to take the brunt of it here. This district is R+0, so while Joe Knollenberg has been in Congress for eight terms, he is going to have to defend his party. Furthermore, at 74 Knollenberg is older than John McCain, surely to be an issue. His opponent is veteran and former state senator Gary Peters. Knollenberg got only 51% of the vote in 2006 and this time around DCCC chairman Chris Van Hollen has painted a large target on his back and plans to spend big time here to defeat him.

MN-01      PVI: R+1

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Tim Walz (D)	Brian Davis (R)	In 2006, Tim Walz (D) pulled an upset victory here by 6% in a slightly (R+1) district. Given how evenly split the district is, his incumbency may keep him in power in 2008 though. The Republican candidate is a cancer specialist at the Mayo Clinic, Brian Davis, who survived a bitter Republican primary.

MN-03      PVI: R+1

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Erik Paulsen (R)	Ashwin Madia (D)	This seat opened up due to the surprise retirement of Rep. Jim Ramstad. Nobody saw this coming. Ramstad was popular in his district and not embroiled in any scandals. At 61, he could have been elected another 10 times. Since the district has a PVI of R+1 and Minnesota is trending blue, the Democrats will go all out to pick up this one. In a surprise upset, young Iraq veteran Ashwin Madia won the Democratic nomination over state senator Terri Bonoff. The Republican will be state representative Erik Paulsen (R). This race will be one of the most closely fought in the entire country. Both parties will throw everything they have into this one.

MN-06      PVI: R+5

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Michele Bachmann (R)	Elwyn Tinklenberg (D)	Freshwoman Michele Bachmann was probably on her way to re-election until she appeared on Chris Matthews show and said there needs to be a probe of Congress to root out the antiAmericans there. The fact that she didn't hold up a photo of the late Sen. Joe McCarthy was probably just an oversight. While her intemperate remarks probably excited her base, it also excited her opponent's base. About $500,000 came pouring into Tinklenberg's coffers in the 24 hours after her appearance on Hardball. All of a sudden, it is a real horserace.

MS-01      PVI: R+10

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Travis Childers (D)	Greg Davis (R)	Travis Childers and Greg Davis have already faced off twice this year, first in a multicandidate primary election, then in a one-on-one runoff. Childers won both of them, the latter by 8 points. In November they go at it again. Although the district is heavily Republican, Childers has already demonstrated his ability to beat Davis in a head-to-head match, despite Davis bringing out the heavy artillery--Dick Cheney campaigned for him. It didn't work. Now that Childers is the incumbent and able to bring in goodies for the district, Davis will have an uphill climb. Merely calling him a "liberal" (which he is not by any stretch of the imagination) won't be enough. However, the larger Republican turnout in the general election might pull Davis over the line. A race to watch.

MO-06      PVI: R+5

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Sam Graves (R)	Kay Barnes (D)	Sam Graves is a young (44) four-term congressman in a Republican (R+5) district. He faces his most formiddable challenge this time in the form of former Kansas City, Missouri, mayor Kay Barnes, who is 70, but very popular in Kansas City, most of which is in the district. Barnes' playbook is taken from that of Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO), who made a big pitch to rural voters as well as city dwellers. This is a top-tier race, with DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen planning to spend generously to help Barnes.

NV-03      PVI: D+1

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jon Porter (R)	Dina Titus (D)	Jon Porter (R) withstood a challenge from Tessa Hafen, winning by about 4000 votes out of 200,000 cast in this relatively evenly split Clark County district (D+1). But the Democrats have a stronger candidate this time in Dina Titus. She is minority leader of the state senate and ran unsucessfully for governor in 2006, but she did carry NV-03 in that race. This will be one of the top-tier races in the West.

NH-01      PVI: R+0

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Carol Shea-Porter (D)	Jeb Bradley (R)	Carol Shea-Porter (D) ran as an antiwar candidate against the Democratic party's choice and won the primary. Then she surprised absolutely everyone by winning the general election. This upset (by 6%) was probably the biggest surprise of the entire election . New Hampshire swung wildly into the Democratic column, with John Lynch (D) being relected governor by the widest margin in state history, the Democrats winning both House seats and both houses of the state legislature (for the first time since 1874). The district is fairly closely split, so the power of incumbency might be enough for Shea-Porter to hang on in 2008. Her newly-elected colleague in NH-02, Paul Hodes (D), represents a district that leans Democratic, so he will have a much easier time in 2008. The former GOP occupant of this seat, Jeb Bradley, wants his job back so it will be the same two contestants in 2008 as in was in 2006, only now with Shea-Porter having the advantage of incumbency.

NJ-03      PVI: D+3

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Chris Myers (R)	John Adler (D)	The unexpected retirement of Jim Saxton (R) in this slightly Democratic district (PVI of D+3) will set off a huge battle as the Democrats smell blood here. This contest will be the biggest single political event in the state in 2008, since the Democrats will probably win the presidential and Senate races easily. The Democratic candidate is state senator John Adler. The Republicans nominated Medford mayor Chris Myers. All the big guns will show up to help their candidate.

NJ-07      PVI: R+1

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Leonard Lance (R)	Linda Stender (D)	The unexpected retirement of Mike Ferguson (R) in this slightly Republican district (PVI of R+1) will set off a huge battle as the Democrats will go after this seat with hammer and tongs. The only NJ race that will overshadow it is the congressional race in NJ-03, which is in a more Democratic district. The Republican candidate is state senator Leonard Lance, the third generation of his family to serve in the state legislature. The democrat is Linda Stender, who ran in 2006 and lost by 4000 votes. The Republicans slogan last time: "Stender is a spender" worked then, but is getting tiresome.

NM-01      PVI: D+2

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Darren White (R)	Martin Heinrich (D)	In 2006, this was an extraordinarily close race in a swing state. State Attorney General Patricia Madrid (D) lost by only 1000 votes to incumbent Heather Wilson. Wilson ran for Pete Domenici's Senate seat and lost the primary, so we have an open seat here. The Democratic candidate is Albuquerque city council member and small businessman Martin Heinrich. The Republican candidate is Bernalillo County sheriff Darren White. An open seat in a D+2 district with two popular Democrats atop the ticket, Barack Obama and Tom Udall, will give Heinrich a boost. White's got to come out with both guns a blazin'.

NM-02      PVI: R+6

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Ed Tinsley (R)	Harry Teague (D)	This seat became open when the occupant, Steve Pearce decided to run for the Senate. Since this is a Republican district, the Republican should have the edge, even for an open seat. However, polling is showing that rancher and restauranteur Ed Tinsley (R) is trailing the Democrat, another businessman, Harry Teague. Will probably be close.

NY-13      PVI: D+1

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Robert Straniere (R)	Mike McMahon (D)	Rep. Vito Fossella (R) of Staten Island was stopped by a police officer for running a red light. Turns out he was drunk. Worse, yet, turns out he was on the way to visit his family in Virginia, a family that his wife and children in New York didn't know about. The tabloids went crazy: Vito Finito as they put it. This open seat in New York City will be very competitive. The Democrat is New York City councilman Mike McMahon. The Republicans were unable to find an established politician to run for the seat and settled on a rich businessman, Francis Powers, who could fund the race himself. Powers' estranged son, Francis Powers, Jr., tried to get on the Libertarian ticket to defeat his father, but failed. Then on June 22, Powers, Sr. died of a heart attack. Then the GOP picked former assemblyman Robert Straniere. The dean of Staten Island Republicans, Guy Molinari hates Straniere so much that he publicly said he would do everything he can to defeat him. Definitely not your standard garden-variety congressional race.

NY-19      PVI: R+1

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
John Hall (D)	Kieran Lalor (R)	In 2006, callenger John Hall (D) wasn't expected to win in this Hudson Valley district, but a hugely successful grass roots effort put him over the top by about 2%. The district is R+1, so now as an incumbent, he has a good chance of being reelected in 2008. The Republican is Kieran Lalor, an Iraq veteran.

NY-20      PVI: R+3

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)	Sandy Treadwell (R)	Kirsten Gillibrand pulled of a surprise win in this slightly Republican part of the upper Hudson Valley. Her win was partly due to her opponent, John Sweeney, beating his wife and having her call 911. She won't be able to count on such good luck this time. But this time she will be the incumbent and the power of incumbency may be enough to offset the slight partisan edge (R+3) the Republicans have. She is raising money like there is no tomorrow and already has well over $2 million cash on hand. Her opponent is is Sandy Treadwell (R), former chairman of the New York State Republican Party.

NY-24      PVI: R+1

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Mike Arcuri (D)	Richard Hanna (R)	This was an open seat in a neutral district. The Republicans shot themselves in the foot by producing an ad accusing Mike Arcuri of calling a sex line and charging it to the taxpayers. While the charge was technically true, it was perfectly clear that he misdialed the number, hung up within 10 seconds, and dialed the number he meant to, which was off by one digit. Arcuri refuted the charge by producing the phone bill showing the two numbers called a few seconds apart. It will be difficult for the Republicans to get this one back but a rich businessman, Richard Hanna is going to give it a shot.

NY-25      PVI: D+3

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Dale Sweetland (R)	Dan Maffei (D)	Incumbent Jim Walsh (R) beat back a challenge from novice Dan Maffei (D) by beating him by just under 4000 votes in this slightly (D+3) Democratic district around Syracuse. Maffei is running again in 2008, but Walsh dropped out of the race in January 2008. Now far more experienced, Maffei has a good chance in this district that Kerry carried in 2004, albeit by a 2% margin. The Republican is a businessman, Dale Sweetland, with roots in agribusiness and insurance.

NY-26      PVI: R+3

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Christopher Lee (R)	Alice Kryzan (D)	Tom Reynolds has represented a conservative district in Western New York hard by the Canadian border for four terms. In 2008 he decided to retire. In an upset victory, the Democrats nominated Buffalo lawyer Alice Kryzan to face Republican businessman Christopher Lee. The Republican is favored.

NY-29      PVI: R+5

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Randy Kuhl (R)	Eric Massa (D)	This race is a rerun of the 2006 one, which Kuhl won by 6000 votes out of 206,000 votes cast. It pits sophomore congressman Randy Kuhl against 24-year Navy veteran Eric Massa. The district has a definite Republican tilt to it, but Massa's surprisingly good showing in his first run for public office, his long military service, and DCCC chairman Chris Van Hollen's bulging bank account will make this district a battleground.

NC-08      PVI: R+3

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Robin Hayes (R)	Larry Kissell (D)	Multimillionaire incumbent Robin Hayes won this race by 329 votes against a totally unknown high school teacher, Larry Kissell. This time, with some help from the DCCC, Kissell might be able to finish the job.

OH-01      PVI: R+1

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Steve Chabot (R)	Steve Driehaus (D)	Congressman Steve Chabot was elected to a seventh term in 2006 53% to 47% against a relatively unknown challenger. This time he is likely to face the minority whip of the Ohio state House, Steve Driehaus. With the DCCC flush with funds and Chabot facing an experienced politician, this race in an evenly split district will draw a lot of attention.

OH-02      PVI: R+13

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jean Schmidt (R)	Victoria Wulsin (D)	Although this is one of the most Republican districts in Ohio (R+13), freshman Jean Schmidt defeated physician Victoria Wulsin by fewer than 3000 votes out of 225,000 votes cast. Despite the Republican tilt of the district, with Schmidt doing so badly, the Democrats are likely to go after her again in 2008. Physician Wulsin won her primary so the two will face off again.

OH-15      PVI: R+1

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Steve Stivers (R)	Mary-Jo Kilroy (D)	This seat is held by Deborah Pryce, a 9-term congresswoman who is #4 in the House leadership. In August 2007, she announced that is returning to Ohio to spend more time with her family. In her announcement, she did not mention anything about the fact that an unknown local county commissioner, Mary Jo Kilroy came within 1100 votes of unseating her in 2006 (out of over 200,000 votes cast). Kilroy is running again. Her opponent is state senator Steve Stivers.

OH-16      PVI: R+4

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Kirk Schuring (R)	John Boccieri (D)	This seat is held by Ralph Regula, who is retiring. The Democratic nominee is state senator John Boccieri. The Republican nominee is also a state senator, Kirk Schuring. This is a top-tier race and will be closely watched.

OH-18      PVI: R+6

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Zack Space (D)	Fred Dailey (R)	OH-18 is a decidedly (R+6) Republican district. The seat was formerly occupied by Bob Ney, who resigned in disgrace, but not before managing to get his favorite candidate to replace him. She was tainted from the start. This time there was a primary and the winner was Fred Dailey, the director of the Ohio Dept. of Agriculture, an appointed office. He has never run for elective office before, but since the district tilts Republican, he should give Space a good run for his money.

OR-05      PVI: D+1

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Kurt Schrader (D)	Mike Erickson (R)	Darlene Hooley's surprise retirement left the Democrats frantically looking for a candidate in this swing district. There was a primary and state senator Kurt Schrader won. The Republican candidate, Mike Erickson, is a rich businessman who ran in 2006 and got 43% of the vote. He also got a woman pregnant in 2001 and paid for her abortion. Considering that politically he rails against abortion as evil, this revelation will hurt him badly. Erickson's primary opponent has refused to endorse him and Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR) won't endorse him either. Not a good sign when your own party is not behind you. DCCC chairman Chris Van Hollen will help fund Schrader's campaign while NRCC chairman Tom Cole has told Erickson to fund himself. All in all, the Democrats have a good chance of holding the seat.

PA-03      PVI: R+2

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Phil English (R)	Kathy Dahlkemper (D)	Normally, someone who has been in Congress for 14 years merely has to stay out of jail to be reelected, but this is no normal year and Phil English has a real fight on his hands in this swing district in hard hit Pennsylvania. Kathy Dahlkemper ran a small business for many years, but lack of poltical experience may be a plus in this "throw the bums out" year. On the other hand, English has raised four times as much money as Dahlkemper. Scattered polls show Dahlkemper with a small lead.

PA-04      PVI: R+3

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jason Altmire (D)	Melissa Hart (R)	Jason Altmire was a surprise winner in 2006, as nobody was paying much attention to this district before the election despite is relatively even balance (R+3). In 2008, everyone will be paying attention to it. The person Altmire defeated, Melissa Hart, is going to try to get her job back.

PA-06      PVI: D+2

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Jim Gerlach (R)	Bob Roggio (D)	The incumbent, Jim Gerlach, won an extremely close contest with Lois Murphy, beating her by only 3001 votes, but she is not running this time. Instead, the Democratic candidate will be retired businessman Bob Roggio.

PA-10      PVI: R+8

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Chris Carney (D)	Chris Hackett (R)	PA-11 is the district whose congressman, Don Sherwood, had a long-running affair with a young Peruvian immigrant 35 years his junior. Then he choked her and she called 911. End of Sherwood. The Republican nominee is a rich businessman, Chris Hackett, who owns a temporary employment agency. He will try very hard to make sure incumbent Carney's current employment is temporary. It won't be so easy though.

PA-11      PVI: D+5

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Paul Kanjorski (D)	Lou Barletta (R)	With the exception of sex-scandal-tained Tim Mahoney, Paul Kanjorski is probably the most endangered Democrat in the House. He has two problems: his age (71) and his opponent, Lou Barletta, who has become an icon in the anti-immigrant movement. Years ago, Barletta founded a pavement marking business which grew to be the sixth largest in the U.S. From there he went on to become mayor of Hazelton, PA. Barletta challenged Kanjorski in 2002 and was crushed, but looks much stronger this time.

TX-22      PVI: R+15

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Nick Lampson (D)	Pete Olson (R)	This is Tom DeLay's district. Nick Lampson won, in part, because in 2006 his opponent had to run a write-in campaign as a result of a court decision that did not allow DeLay to change his residence to Virginia and get off the ballot. This time Lampson will face a serious challenge in this heavily Republican district from Pete Olson, chief-of-staff for Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX). This is one of the most heavily Republican districts in the country with a Democratic congressman and is probably the GOP's best pickup opportunity for 2008.

TX-23      PVI: R+4

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Ciro Rodriguez (D)	Lyle Larson (R)	In a surprise upset, Ciro Rodriguez defeated incumbent Henry Bonilla (R) in a runoff election in 2006. The district is very heavily Latino and unless the Republicans can find a Latino who dislikes Robert Frost ("Good fences make good neighbors"), Rodriguez will probably hang on. Apparently no Latino wanted to make the run, so the very Anglo Kyle Larson, a rich businessman got the nomination. He's got his work cut out for him convincing poor Mexican-Americans that's he's better for them than Rodriguez.

VA-11      PVI: R+1

Challenger	Challenger	Notes
Gerald Connolly (D)	Keith Fimian (R)	In a surprise move, Rep. Tom Davis (R) announced he is not running for reelection. Northern Virginia is trending Democratic in recent years and this district is just about evenly split between the parties. It is going to become a huge battleground as the Democrats smell a pickup here. After a contested primary, the Democrats nominated Fairfax County supervisor Gerry Connolly. The unchallenged Republican candidate is a rich local businessman, Keith Fimian.

WA-08      PVI: D+2

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Dave Reichert (R)	Darcy Burner (D)	Incumbent Dave Reichert (R) beat back a fierce challenge from Microsoft manager Darcy Burner, ultimately winning by 7300 votes out of 250,000 cast. The district, in the eastern Seattle suburbs, leans slightly Democratic (D+2), but that wasn't quite enough to overcome the power of incumbency. Burner is challenging Reichert again in 2008 and has been outraising him this time. Due to a defective lamp, her house burned to the ground in July 2008, but she is still in the race to win.

WI-08      PVI: R+4

Incumbent	Challenger	Notes
Steve Kagen (D)	John Gard (R)	Steve Kagen is a physician who won a surprising victory in this moderately Republican district (R+4). He beat former assembly speaker John Gard 51% to 49%, but Gard is back for a rematch. Only this time Kagen is an incumbent. It is expected to be a closely fought race again, however.