Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:   Kerry 300   Bush 238

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dark blue Strong Kerry (157)
light blue Weak Kerry (99)
white and blue Barely Kerry (44)
white Exactly tied (0)
white and red Barely Bush (56)
light red Weak Bush (38)
dark red Strong Bush (144)
June 25 New polls: FL ID MI

News from the Votemaster

Big news from Idaho. Somebody finally got around to conducting a poll, the first one this year. Bush has a massive lead there (30%), but Nader does surprisingly well too (6%), probably as a stand-in for "none of the above."

More problematical is Florida. Two new polls were released since yesterday, giving three polls ending on June 23. They are

Kerry Bush Nader
38 48 3 Fox News
47 46 2 American Research Group
48 42 1 Rasmussen

The enormous descrepancy between Fox and the other two really raises some serious issues. A net difference of 16% between Fox and Rasmussen makes one wonder if Fox polls are reliable. Scott Rasmussen is also known to have strong Republican ties, but he is running a polling company, not a TV station, and probably understands that inaccurate polls, even if they favor his guy, are not going to impress potential future customers. This is a tough call, but we are going to go with the one in the middle because to say Bush is way ahead when two other polls say he is behind is hard to swallow.

I am going to be traveling for two weeks, so updates may be a bit erratic for a while. Usually I try to get the results up before lunch time on the West Coast, when most of the day's polls have been published, but that may or may not work for the next two weeks. I'll do my best though.

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-- The votemaster