Better late than never, right? Thanks for being patient!

Biden Puts His Foot Down

On Monday, as part of our item arguing that Israel is losing the PR war, we wrote this:

That said, Biden has shown a willingness to change course when he feels he has no choice. He's sometimes slow to do it, but he certainly has the capacity. And the day may soon come that playing patty-cake with [Benjamin] Netanyahu is a luxury that Biden can no longer afford. That doesn't necessarily mean a total severing of the relationship, but it could mean using a few sticks here and there. Indeed, as we noted yesterday, the White House halted a shipment of armaments to Israel last week; it's still not known why. On top of that, Biden will be making a speech today in honor of Holocaust Remembrance Day (albeit a day late), and he'll be reporting to Congress on Wednesday as to whether or not Israel is using U.S. weapons in accordance with international law, and whether or not humanitarian aid is being delivered properly. Needless to say, the world will be watching both days for insight as to Biden's current thinking.

We do not repeat this to highlight how brilliant we are—after all, that is self-evident—but to point out that the course events have taken was entirely foreseeable.

Indeed, as most readers will have heard by now, Biden finally drew a line in the sand on Wednesday. Speaking to CNN, he said: "I made it clear that if [the Israeli Defense Forces] go into Rafah—they haven't gone in Rafah yet—if they go into Rafah, I'm not supplying the weapons that have been used historically to deal with Rafah, to deal with the cities—that deal with that problem."

Although that quote seems to be in future tense, the White House, in fact, has already paused a second weapons shipment to Israel. This time, a bunch of big bombs are being held back (1,800 2,000-pound bombs plus 1,700 500-pound bombs, for a grand total of 4,450,000 pounds of bombs). These are the primary bombs that Israel uses for offensive operations, so holding them back is a pretty big deal.

The basic point of contention is that Rafah is Hamas' most important remaining stronghold, by a large margin, and the Israelis think and hope that they can break the back of the terrorist group with an invasion. However, Rafah is also home to 1.4 million people, plus some hundreds of thousands of refugees, and the Israeli government has not presented a satisfactory plan for how it will evacuate or protect those folks. Needless to say, dropping hundreds of tons of bombs, some of them with a blast perimeter of a quarter of a mile, would be rather hazardous to the civilians' health.

Netanyahu is pissed off, of course. So are the various strongly pro-Israel Democrats, and pretty much all Republicans. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) sent a letter to the President demanding answers. The basic position taken by all of these folks, to a greater or lesser extent, is that withholding the bombs weakens Israel's position militarily, and in turn weakens them at the bargaining table. All of that is undoubtedly true.

However, when fighting a war (or helping some other nation to fight a war), it's often not about "the good choice" and "the bad choice," it's about the least bad choice from among a bunch of bad choices. If the Israeli government is going to rely on the U.S. for weapons and other support, then that gives the U.S. government a seat at the table when it comes to determining how that assistance is utilized. And it is abundantly evident that, from both a humanitarian and a political perspective, the Biden administration has no real choice but to assert itself more fully. Most Americans are OK with it if American bombs are used to kill terrorists. Most Americans are NOT OK with it if American bombs end up killing lots of civilians. And if the Israelis cannot give reasonable assurances that it will be the former and not the latter, then they can't be certain of support from the U.S. government. It is worth noting, incidentally, that the Biden administration is still supplying smaller and more precise offensive weaponry, as well as defensive weaponry. Just not the big bombs, until a better and clearer plan of action is in place.

As to what happens next, nobody can possibly say. Netanyahu is posturing, and declaring that if he can't get bombs from the U.S., the Israelis will go it alone. That seems a dubious threat, to say the least. Maybe this will prove to just be a blip in the relationship between the Netanyahu administration and the Biden administration, and they'll get back on the same page in short order, with Biden having made a statement, and Netanyahu deciding he needs to course-correct, at least a bit.

On the other hand, Biden has broken with his usual policy of "nice guy Joe" and conducting diplomacy behind the scenes, and has now publicly criticized his Israeli counterpart. Once that Rubicon is crossed, maybe it can't be un-crossed. At least some experts think the breach cannot be repaired, and that we're getting closer and closer to regime change in Israel. The next week or two should be interesting. (Z)

The Greene Goblin Strikes

Actually, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is more a troll than a goblin, but Spider-Man never faced off against the Green Troll. In any case, after strongly implying she was going to stand down on her threat to try to remove Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), Greene changed course, pulled the trigger... and was humiliated.

Technically, the House did not actually vote on whether or not to vacate the chair. Johnson foresaw that Greene might move forward despite her assurances to the contrary, and had a plan in place. So, the vote was actually on whether or not to even consider her motion. Perhaps this gave Democrats, and even some Republicans, some cover, since they weren't actually voting on Johnson directly. In any event, the motion to table succeeded by a vote of 359 (196 R, 163 D) to 43 (11 R, 32 D), with 28 members (10R , 18D) either voting "present" or else not voting.

Not only did Greene's MTV go up in flames, but she was booed loudly, by members of both parties, when she stood on the floor of the House and converted the MTV into a privileged resolution. On top of that, many Republican members are so tired of stunts from Greene and other far-right Republicans, there is now talk of changing conference rules to punish such behavior. Possible penalties include loss of committee memberships (which would be the second time for Greene, if it happens) and expulsion from the House Republican Conference.

Meanwhile, the fact that Johnson won the battle does not mean he's won the war. He's shown himself to be pretty savvy, particularly as compared to Kevin McCarthy. However, the primary thing keeping him safe right now is that House Republicans don't want yet another embarrassing "we are barely capable of governing" fiasco. If the GOP holds its House majority (a big "if"), Johnson has indicated he wants to run to keep his job in the next Congress. Quite a few of his members are not enthused, to say the least.

Also, Johnson survived the MTV challenge thanks to Democratic votes. Exactly what deal Johnson struck with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) is not known, but it's possible the debt incurred during the negotiations over Ukraine funding has now been paid. Further, Johnson cannot be both a bipartisan unifier and a hyperpartisan bomb thrower (see the item immediately above, and the one immediately below). Point is, if the Democrats decide they've had enough of his song and dance, they could have a chat with the 11 Republicans who apparently would like to see him go, and tell those Republicans that the blue team is no longer going to bail the Speaker out. In short, Johnson shouldn't feel too comfortable, even if he did beat the Greene Goblin handily. (Z)

Johnson Performs Political Theater

As part of his deal with the devil (a.k.a. Donald Trump), Mike Johnson is busy pretending that voter fraud is a major issue that needs to be confronted. And so, within hours of outmaneuvering Marge Greene yesterday, the Speaker was on the steps of the Capitol, touting his bill to make it illegal for non-citizens to vote in federal elections.

At this point, you might be saying: "Wait. Isn't it already illegal for non-citizens to vote?" Or maybe: "Wait. Isn't this a virtually unheard-of phenomenon?" If you had either of those responses, you are absolutely correct. This is a non-issue on two counts. But Johnson has to make nice to Trump, and so he pretends this is VERY IMPORTANT legislation to solve a VERY SIGNIFICANT problem.

Here's a picture of the press conference; we think it tells you pretty much all you need to know:

You can just feel the enthusiasm, particularly since most of these people (outside of Chip Roy, R-TX, and a couple of others) are not members of Congress, they are people in Trump's orbit. Note, in particular, that Stephen Miller, who spoke before Johnson did, appears to be very bored, standing there (ironically enough) on the far left. Also, who designed that sign? When you use an alternate color for some words, it's supposed to be to highlight a separate but perhaps complementary thought. For example, if it was Americans BUY AMERICAN Trucks, then that would make sense. But what is the purpose in emphasizing "DECIDE AMERICAN"? That doesn't mean anything by itself, and it isn't more compelling visually.

We presume that Johnson will now quietly file this proposed legislation in the circular file. But if he does bring it up, and it does pass, then isn't that actually bad news for the Republicans? Because then, the problem will be "solved" and they won't be able to gripe about phony illegal votes anymore. (Z)

Burgum for VP?

We don't normally pay too much attention to the Trump Veepstakes because the candidate plays his cards close to the vest, at least on this particular subject. Further, he's so mercurial that the Flavor of the Day today might be in the doghouse tomorrow (See: Noem, Kristi).

That said, we think it is interesting that Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND) looks to be on the shortlist, and rising rapidly. He's become a major part of the Trump campaign's fundraising efforts, and has also been a frequent presence in the media for the last few weeks, peddling the Trump party line. For example, and consistent with the item above, Burgum appeared on CNN this weekend to complain that "there's vote-buying going on at a scale like we have never seen before." The irony of that coming from a guy whose entire presidential campaign was powered by giving out $20 gift cards is thick.

In the early going, the word was that Trump was leaning toward a woman as his running mate. However, most of the viable woman contenders, excepting perhaps Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), have fallen out of contention. And despite his spending multiple hours on TV each week pandering to Trump, we do not believe for a minute that Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) is a serious candidate. In the end, it always seemed likely that Trump would end up with a white guy, because Trump doesn't so much "pick" people for these roles, he "casts" them. And when Trump thinks "politician," we have absolutely no doubt that what he sees in his mind is a white guy with some gravitas. Plus, if Trump taps Burgum, then the GOP ticket will have a successful businessman on it for the first time since Mitt Romney ran in 2012. (Z)

Trump Legal News: Slow Ride

It is remarkable the extent to which the courts are willing to bend over backwards to evaluate cockamamie legal arguments from Donald Trump and his lawyers. Maybe they are just trying to treat him fairly. Or maybe they worry that with someone as well-heeled and as litigious as he is, absolutely every i needs to be dotted and every t needs to be crossed. In triplicate.

On Wednesday, a Georgia appeals court agreed to consider the question of whether or not DA Fani Wallis should be disqualified from prosecuting the case. The argument for booting her is silly, and does not comport with the law, and was soundly rejected by Judge Scott McAfee. But the appeals court is going to take another look-see, anyhow. Trump has 10 days to formally file the paperwork (presumably it will be submitted at 4:59 p.m. on the 10th day), and then the court will take however long it takes to deal with the matter. McAfee has not yet set a date for the trial, and he presumably won't until after this matter is settled.

That means that, once again, the odds improve that Trump gets to Election Day without going to trial (outside of the New York trial that is already underway). We shared our opinion that the Washington trial still might get done before the election, and got a fair bit of pushback from readers. For example, this from reader J.H. in Boston, MA:

You write that your guess is that the Chutkan trial, which is currently waiting for the SCOTUS immunity ruling, will happen before the election. Maybe, but many of the analyses I read about the types of questions the justices were asking at the immunity hearing suggested that they are going to send it back to the lower court with some new wisdom about deciding which presidential acts are official or whatever. Meaning that Chutkan can't start once the SCOTUS rules, we have to wait for that other new ruling. Worst possible outcome for anyone hoping for a fast trial.

It's a fair point. Our thought was that the appeals courts, unlike the Supreme Court, have tended to deal with Trump-related questions very rapidly. So, we suppose it ultimately depends on two things: (1) how willing Chutkan is to stage a trial at the height of campaign season, and (2) whether the Supremes feel the need to weigh in again, after they kick the matter downward. (Z)

Adieu, FreedomWorks

FreedomWorks, which was a very Libertarian-leaning but Republican-supporting PAC, was once a rising star in right-wing politics (playing a key role in the tea party movement, in particular). No more. Thanks to anemic fundraising, the group is shutting down, effective immediately.

The leadership of FreedomWorks has no doubt as to who is to blame for the organization's demise: Donald Trump. Pointing out that their key issues are free trade, small government and a robust merit-based immigration system, they note that Trump and Trumpism are about protectionism, big government (at least, when it comes to regulating citizens' private lives), and hostility to immigration. And since Trumpism is where the Republican Party is these days, there's no place left for FreedomWorks. It also did not help that FreedomWorks supported Trump when he did do libertarian-y things, but opposed him when he would do non-libertarian-y things. In the modern Republican Party, someone who is not with you 100% of the time is... the enemy.

We thought this was interesting for one reason, in particular. You know whose political program was, in a nutshell, "free trade, small government and a robust merit-based immigration system"? You know who said "The person who agrees with you 80 percent of the time is a friend and an ally—not a 20 percent traitor"? That's right, St. Ronnie of Reagan. It's another reminder that the Republican Party of 2024 has virtually nothing to do with the Republican Party of 1984, and that the still-venerated Reagan would find no place in the GOP today. And don't even get us started on the nitwits who claim there's zero difference between the Democratic Party of 100 years ago (or the Republican Party of 100 years ago) and their counterparts today. (Z)

Today's Presidential Polls

That's a very good poll for Biden out of Wisconsin, obviously, especially since the "blue wall" states tend to track one another (with Minnesota being the bluest, and Wisconsin being the purplest). Meanwhile, it's hard to reconcile that Maryland poll with the fact that former governor Larry Hogan is consistently polling above 50% in his U.S. Senate race. Will there really be that much ticket-splitting at the top of the ballot? (Z)

State	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Start	End	Pollster
Maryland	60%	32%	May 06	May 07	PPP
Wisconsin	50%	44%	May 02	May 06	Quinnipiac U.

Click on a state name for a graph of its polling history.

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