Tipping-Point State

For each state, the current best estimate of the presidential race is given below, with all the polls for the most recent week of polling averaged together. (Note: the most recent week of polling for a given state may not be this week). The states are listed from most Democratic to most Republican. The fourth column gives the candidate's current lead in that state.

If you compare our scores to that of other media sources, you will no doubt find differences. Part of this is that we do count robopollsters (e.g., PPP, Rasmussen, and SurveyUSA) but do not count partisan pollsters, who work to elect Democrats or Republicans. Also, every source has its own algorithm for combining recent polls. Ours is here.

The color coding is as follows:

  • Dark blue: Strongly Democratic (Democrat leads by >= 10%)
  • Middle blue: Likely Democratic (Democrat leads by 5-9%)
  • Light blue: Barely Democratic (Democrat leads by 1-4%)
  • White: Tossup (currently exactly tied)
  • Light red: Barely Republican (Republican leads by 1-4%)
  • Middle red: Likely Republican (Republican leads by 5-9%)
  • Dark red: Strongly Republican (Republican leads by >= 10%)

The states in the middle are the ones in play.

The final two columns are the cumulative electoral votes. For Biden, start at the top, so if he wins D.C. and nothing else, he gets 3 EVs. For Trump, read up from the bottom. If he wins only Wyoming, he gets 3 EVs.

Another way of viewing this table is to ask "How deep into red territory does Biden have to go to win?" Or alternatively (reading upwards from the bottom) "How deep into blue territory does Trump have to go to win?" The state that puts either candidate over the top is the tipping-point state. It is indicated by the little hand icon for each candidate. Sometimes it is the same state, but not always.

Click on a state name to see a graph of all the presidential polls for that state.

Note that the sum of the EVs in a single row is never 538 because that would count the row twice. The sum of Biden's EVs in any row plus the Trump EVs in the row below it is 538, since that assigns each state to only one candidate.

State EVs Biden Trump Lead Biden EVs Trump EVs
D.C.
3
93%
6%
87%
 3
 538
Massachusetts
11
58%
30%
28%
 14
 535
Maryland
10
58%
34%
24%
 24
 524
California
54
55%
31%
24%
 78
 514
Hawaii
4
55%
33%
22%
 82
 460
Vermont
3
56%
35%
21%
 85
 456
Rhode Island
4
60%
40%
20%
 89
 453
Connecticut
7
55%
38%
17%
 96
 449
Illinois
19
53%
40%
13%
 115
 442
Washington
12
49%
37%
12%
 127
 423
Oregon
8
51%
39%
12%
 135
 411
Delaware
3
51%
40%
11%
 138
 403
New York
28
55%
45%
10%
 166
 400
New Jersey
14
51%
42%
9%
 180
 372
New Mexico
5
49%
42%
7%
 185
 358
Colorado
10
49%
43%
6%
 195
 353
Minnesota
10
45%
41%
4%
 205
 343
New Hampshire
4
45%
43%
2%
 209
 333
Michigan
15
47%
46%
1%
 224
 329
Virginia
13
48%
48%
0%
 237
 314
Wisconsin
10
40%
41%
1%
 247
 301
Maine
4
43%
44%
1%
 251
 291
Pennsylvania
19
45%
47%
2%
     270
     287
Iowa
6
45%
47%
2%
 276
 268
Indiana
11
43%
47%
4%
 287
 262
North Carolina
16
43%
48%
5%
 303
 251
Nevada
6
45%
50%
5%
 309
 235
Kansas
6
44%
49%
5%
 315
 229
Georgia
16
44%
49%
5%
 331
 223
Florida
30
45%
50%
5%
 361
 207
Missouri
10
43%
49%
6%
 371
 177
Arkansas
6
42%
48%
6%
 377
 167
Arizona
11
45%
51%
6%
 388
 161
Ohio
17
41%
48%
7%
 405
 150
Alaska
3
43%
50%
7%
 408
 133
Texas
40
37%
46%
9%
 448
 130
Mississippi
6
42%
51%
9%
 454
 90
South Carolina
9
40%
52%
12%
 463
 84
Oklahoma
7
40%
53%
13%
 470
 75
Louisiana
8
33%
48%
15%
 478
 68
Tennessee
11
29%
47%
18%
 489
 60
North Dakota
3
37%
55%
18%
 492
 49
South Dakota
3
31%
50%
19%
 495
 46
Nebraska
5
34%
57%
23%
 500
 43
Montana
4
34%
59%
25%
 504
 38
Kentucky
8
35%
60%
25%
 512
 34
Alabama
9
32%
60%
28%
 521
 26
West Virginia
4
31%
63%
32%
 525
 17
Utah
6
25%
57%
32%
 531
 13
Idaho
4
30%
62%
32%
 535
 7
Wyoming
3
26%
67%
41%
 538
 3