Arizona Abortion Law Is Headed to the Dustbin of History

Two Republican Arizona state Senators crossed the aisle yesterday to join with all 14 of their Democratic colleagues, which meant there were just enough votes for a repeal of the state's 1864 abortion law. The state House had already passed the measure, of course, and Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ) has said she'll sign it. So, once the repeal takes effect (90 days after the current legislative session ends), the law will be as dead as the Confederacy.

Now the question is whether that will be enough to save the Republicans' bacon in the fall elections. At the moment, Democratic operatives in Arizona are worried that voter outrage might dissipate, and that women/young people/Democrats who are unhappy about Israel will be less motivated to get to the polls. Republican operatives in Arizona, on the other hand, are hopeful that the rollback will cause the storm to subside. "It bails Republicans out," said one GOP strategist. "Republicans can point to the 15-week limitation and say, 'Most abortions happen in this time anyway, so what's the big deal?'"

Our sense of things, such as it is, is that the repeal of the bill won't actually change the dynamics of Arizona's November elections very much. To start, despite the Republican optimism in the previous paragraph, polls make clear that a 15-week ban is unacceptable to something like 60% of Arizonans. Also, there is still the measure on the ballot that would protect abortion access going forward. And finally, the repeal of the 1864 law was accomplished with zero votes to spare in each chamber of the state legislature. That means that at such point as the Republicans regain the governor's mansion, it wouldn't take too much of a shift in the composition of the state house for the 1864 ban to be re-implemented, or for a new ban to be put in place. If you're pro-choice, it's a situation that argues for a permanent resolution, while the opportunity exists. So, we think turnout on the pro-choice side will still be quite high, even with the 1864 law done for. (Z)

Greene Will Move Forward with Motion to Vacate

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) are now in an open state of warfare. Yesterday, Greene announced that next week, she is going to convert her motion to vacate to a privileged motion, meaning the House will have to vote on it within 2 days. She also refused to say whether she would keep bringing up the motion for additional votes, once it inevitably fails. Meanwhile, Johnson appeared on NewsNation to light into Greene, opining that she's not a "serious lawmaker." He's right about that, of course, but it's not too often a Speaker publicly shreds a member of their own conference.

There is something of a full-court press underway, as Republicans try to get Greene to drop the whole thing. A number of her colleagues have done some arm-twisting, and the leadership of the RNC is pleading with her to back down. Of course, there is one person who would probably be able to get her to back off, and he has yet to get involved, other than saying he thinks Johnson is doing a bang-up job. If Donald Trump does not speak up, it would seem to suggest he's either not as impressed with Johnson as he claims, or that he lacks the fortitude to challenge Greene directly. In any event, the next act of this ridiculous little melodrama will be along shortly. (Z)

House Passes Anti-Antisemitism Bill

Next week, House Democrats will probably bail Mike Johnson out on the motion to vacate. Yesterday, they bailed him out on the Antisemitism Awareness Act, a bill that is ostensibly supposed to help quell some of the tensions on the nation's campuses (now including UCLA... ). The vote was 320 (187 R, 133 D) to 91 (21 R, 70 D).

On its face, it is hard to see the bill as a serious attempt to improve on the current situation. What it primarily does is tell the Department of Education that when it enforces federal anti-discrimination laws, it must use the definition of antisemitism put forward by the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA). DoE enforcement actions of this sort are somewhat uncommon, and take a long time to play out. So, it is rather difficult to see how the legislation, even if it becomes law, could plausibly interact with what's currently happening on the campuses. Put another way, this looks a lot like grandstanding, and doing something just so the politicians can say they did something.

There's also a more nefarious interpretation of the bill. The IHRA definition of antisemitism is fairly unremarkable and unobjectionable:

Antisemitism is a certain perception of Jews, which may be expressed as hatred toward Jews. Rhetorical and physical manifestations of antisemitism are directed toward Jewish or non-Jewish individuals and/or their property, toward Jewish community institutions and religious facilities.

However, that is only the definition part of the definition. The IHRA then goes on to list 11 different behaviors that constitute antisemitism, many of them involving the state of Israel. For example, "claiming that the existence of a State of Israel is a racist endeavor" is deemed to be antisemitic. So, adopting this definition could serve to stifle certain types of dissent, most obviously criticism of the Israeli government. This specific concern is why many of the 91 "nays" voted nay, including Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY), who is the most senior Jewish member of the House.

There is one other thing worth noting. An alternative bill, with bipartisan support, has been put forward by Rep. Kathy Manning (D-NC), and it looks considerably more substantive (though it also embraces the IHRA definition of antisemitism). What Manning's bill, which is called the Combat Antisemitism Act (CAA), would do is empower the White House to appoint a special envoy to monitor and combat antisemitism; that person would carry the rank of an ambassador. The CAA would also create an intra-agency task force to look at solutions for combating antisemitism and would add a Department of Education monitor responsible for overseeing anti-antisemitism efforts on the nation's college campuses. Johnson refused to bring this bill to the floor, leading some Democrats to accuse him of trying to divide their caucus, rather than trying to find solutions to the current antisemitism problem.

Now the Antisemitism Awareness Act will head to the Senate, where a Jewish fellow will decide whether or not it gets a vote. If Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) decides to kill the measure, his being Jewish will probably let him get away with that (not so for, say, the waspy Mitch McConnell, R-KY). If the Majority Leader decides it's a worthwhile bill, however, then it will likely pass the Senate easily, and Joe Biden will probably have little choice but to sign it. Thus far, Schumer has not tipped his hand, and so nobody knows what he'll do. (Z)

Biden Is in a No-Win Situation

As the campus protests spread, Joe Biden is striving mightily to stay above the fray, as best he can. When it comes to the protests themselves, he's dealing with a real Gordian knot. He doesn't want to be anti-free speech or anti-protest, but he also can't tolerate violence or bigotry. He doesn't want to be insensitive to the plight of the Palestinians, but he doesn't want to be insensitive to the plight of the Israelis, either. He has relatively little direct influence over campus governance, and the one tool he COULD use in the short-term, namely violent force, he does not want to use. That's more a Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) or a Mayor Eric Adams (D-NYC) thing (though it has now also become a UCLA thing, albeit over the objections of Gov. Gavin Newsom, D-CA).

There was an incident yesterday that served to put the lose-lose nature of the President's situation into stark contrast. The University of Alabama has joined the ever-growing list of schools with ongoing showdowns between angry pro-Israel students and angry pro-Palestine students. And while the two sides there normally chant slogans in opposition to the other side, for a period of time yesterday, they came together as one to chant... "Fu** Joe Biden. Fu** Joe Biden. Fu** Joe Biden." The pro-Palestine side blames him for giving too much support to Israel, while the pro-Israel side blames him for giving too little support. And, in trying to steer a middle course, all he's doing is angering both sides.

As we have noted several times, graduation is imminent at most institutions (UCLA and a few Cal State schools being the main exceptions, as they are on the quarter system, and don't complete their school years until mid-June). Biden is going to hope and pray that the end of the school year calms things down a whole bunch, while also hoping and praying that current, very delicate, efforts to extract the remaining hostages in Hamas' control pay dividends. (Z)

DEI Is Under Attack in Numerous States...

Programs that foster D.E.I. (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) are all the rage on the left, especially at universities, but also to some extent in companies, as they discover that some of the people they previously ignored are actually very good. Any organization that pushes D.E.I. hard is effectively going to discriminate against white men. Hiring is generally a zero-sum game, after all. Not surprisingly, D.E.I. has led to a backlash.

In about one-third of the states, state legislatures are working on laws limiting D.E.I. in state and local government organizations, including K-12 schools and higher education. Alabama, Florida, Texas, and Utah have already passed such laws, with more to come from states under Republican control. University systems in Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, and North Carolina have already scrapped diversity statements for employment candidates. Gov. Kevin Stitt (R-OK) has signed an executive order banning programs that grant preferential status to anyone based on their race, color, sex, ethnicity, or national origin. A while back, laws banned discrimination against people based on these criteria. Now that has flipped 180 degrees.

A common approach is to ban all D.E.I. offices that aren't necessary to comply with federal law. This also implies eliminating all staff positions dealing with these issues. Sometimes the laws ban using D.E.I. in training programs, employment, and financial decisions. In some cases, the laws specify that merit is the only allowed criteria for hiring someone.

However, in blue states, the reverse is true. Some of them have passed laws requiring or expanding D.E.I. programs. These include Oregon, Maryland, and Washington. It's just a new front in the ever-present culture wars. (V)

...On the Other Hand, Anti-Woke Isn't a Winner, Either

There are numerous products out there meant to be the "conservative" version of... whatever the thing is. For example, Black Rifle is trying to be THE coffee for conservatives, Jeremy's Razors is trying to be THE razor for conservatives, Conservative Dad's Ultra Right Beer is trying to be THE beer for conservatives, etc. None of these products has been a wild success.

There is an even worse business plan than just being the [X] for conservatives, however, and that is being the [X] for conservatives when a big chunk of the people who buy [X] are actually politically liberal. That is why there's no conservative-branded gluten-free granola, or organic Kombucha, or PVC-free yoga mat.

It would seem that, despite being the richest man in the world, Elon Musk did not get this message. Recall that his primary business concern is Tesla, which makes... electric vehicles. And recall that a sizable segment of electric vehicle purchasers are folks of a liberal stripe. Well, when Musk decided to go all-in on anti-woke and pro-Trump, garnished with generous helpings of conspiratorial thinking, antisemitism, racism, and homophobia, that did not sit well with the people who make up much of his would-be client base.

The impact of this was very clear in last year's sales figures. Democrats were responsible for roughly 40% of U.S. Tesla purchases up through October of last year (with independents responsible for a similar fraction, and Republicans buying the remaining 20%). By December of last year, the Democratic share was down to 15%. While there were more purchases by non-Democrats, they weren't enough to make up for the lost Democratic sales, and so the company's overall sales were down for Q4 of 2023.

Since then, as you may have noticed, Musk has largely shut his yap. And Democratic purchases of Teslas have gone back up; members of the blue team are currently making up about 30% of the mix. The upshot, between this item and the previous one, is that the culture wars make this a particularly tough time to be in business. That's doubly or triply true if you are someone like Musk, and insist on being the center of attention much of the time. (Z)

Today's Presidential Polls

Zogby is not a great pollster. In fact, Zogby is not even a good pollster. Just look at some of those numbers. Joe Biden is only up 6 in New York, 5 in Rhode Island, and 3 in Oregon? Donald Trump is only up 4 in Indiana, 3 in Utah, and 2 in Iowa? These results are hard to swallow. However, we are including the pollster in our database anyhow, because even a shaky poll from 2024 is better than just repeating the 2020 result, and repeating the 2020 result is all we can do if we don't have a 2024 poll to work with. (Z)

State	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Start	End	Pollster
Alaska	43%	50%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Arkansas	42%	48%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Arizona	40%	51%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
California	56%	38%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Colorado	49%	43%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Connecticut	55%	38%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Delaware	51%	40%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Florida	42%	51%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Georgia	44%	47%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Hawaii	55%	33%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Iowa	45%	47%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Idaho	31%	60%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Illinois	53%	40%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Indiana	43%	47%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Kansas	44%	49%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Kentucky	35%	60%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Louisiana	39%	54%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Massachusetts	55%	36%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Maryland	58%	34%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Maine	45%	46%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Michigan	48%	45%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Minnesota	46%	44%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Missouri	43%	49%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Mississippi	42%	51%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Montana	34%	59%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
North Carolina	45%	49%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
North Dakota	37%	55%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Nebraska	39%	50%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
New Hampshire	48%	44%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
New Jersey	51%	42%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
New Mexico	49%	42%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Nevada	44%	50%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
New York	48%	42%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Ohio	42%	52%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Oklahoma	40%	53%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Oregon	47%	44%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Pennsylvania	50%	45%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Rhode Island	48%	43%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
South Carolina	40%	52%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
South Dakota	32%	60%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Tennessee	35%	59%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Texas	40%	48%	Apr 12	Apr 22	U. of Texas
Texas	40%	50%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Utah	43%	46%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Virginia	45%	45%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Vermont	56%	35%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Washington	52%	40%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Wisconsin	46%	48%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
West Virginia	31%	63%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby
Wyoming	26%	67%	Apr 13	Apr 21	Zogby

Click on a state name for a graph of its polling history.

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