South Ocean Blvd Is a One-Way Street

Apparently, South Ocean Blvd., which runs in front of Mar-a-Lago, is a one-way street. Ronna Romney McDaniel practically prostituted herself for Donald Trump, echoing all his lies, defending the indefensible, trying to set up a slate of fake electors in Michigan, and doing a lot of stuff that she knows very well members of her LDS church don't approve of, all the while knowing that it was morally wrong. When NBC News dumped her, did Donald Trump at least come to her rescue?

That's where the one-way street comes in. Trump demands total loyalty from everyone, but even when they give him 100% of what he demands, with no qualms or hesitation, does he try to help them out when they get in trouble for following his directions? What a silly question. So it is with poor Ronna. She learned the hard way. If Johann Wolfgang von Goethe were alive, he could write a play about what happens when you sell your soul to... Donald Trump.

Yesterday, instead of defending McDaniel, Trump mocked her. He said: "Wow! Ronna McDaniel got fired by Fake News NBC. She only lasted two days, and this after McDaniel went out of her way to say what they wanted to hear. It leaves her in a very strange place, it's called NEVER NEVERLAND, and it's not a place you want to be." He has been unhappy with her for a while, but this goes beyond anything he has said before. When she was spouting his lies and trying to arrange for fake electors in Michigan, he didn't seem to object to her very much.

Trump wasn't the only member of his team who tried to make hay out of this. A headline at Fox read: "NBC's ousting of Ronna McDaniel reinforces status as anti-Trump, pro-Biden network." (V)

Now What Happens with TMTG?

As of Tuesday, TMTG (Trump Media and Technology Group), which is a pretty fancy name for a dying social media app, is a publicly traded company, with all that implies. Once the hype wears off, investors are going to start looking at it the way they look at comparable companies. They are probably not going to like what they see:

Company	IPO date	Monthly users	Market cap.
Meta	May 18, 2012	845 million	$104 billion
Twitter	Nov. 7, 2013	215 million	$24 billion
Pinterest	April 18, 2019	250 million	$10 billion
Truth Social	March 26, 2024	5 million	$6 billion

eX-Twitter is private now, so the value is an estimate. Truth Social brought in about $5 million last year (and spent way more than that, for a net loss on the order of $60 million). In contrast, Facebook made $3.7 billion in profit in the year before it went public. Furthermore, the audience for Truth Social is a niche and is shrinking. No major national advertisers will touch it with a barge pole. Until now, it has avoided scrutiny of its business model. As a publicly traded company, it is going to have to be much more forthcoming now or face shareholder lawsuits.

TMTG is a meme stock now buoyed by Trump fans, but that won't last long as the markets begin examining it the way they examine other companies. And when Trump starts selling stock in volume, that will drive the price down sharply. He could do it very slowly—say, selling 0.25% per week—but then it would take him years to get rid of all of it, by which time the price might have collapsed completely.

The merger also brings up some other thorny issues. Suppose the stock is being kept afloat by Vladimir Putin, MBS, and various other foreign dictators who want to curry favor with Trump. Now suppose Trump wins the election. Does that bring us back to that nasty Emoluments Clause in the Constitution again? If foreign actors are supporting a company of which Trump is majority owner, is that a violation of the Constitution? Could he be impeached for it if Democrats control the House? It harks back to the situation of foreign governments holding big events at the Trump International Hotel in D.C. while Trump was president. When James Madison wrote the Constitution, he was probably not thinking about the possibility of a president being majority stockholder of a publicly traded corporation worth $6 billion and all the ethical issues that could lead to. We could find out some of the consequences if Trump wins. (V)

Biden Leads Trump in a National Poll

A lot of Democrats are crying in their wine because Joe Biden's approval rating is dreadful. But they forget that Donald Trump's is as bad if not worse and for a lot of voters, it will be a matter of choosing the lesser of two evils. It is possible for the lesser of two evils to get 270 electoral votes, though. A new quality national poll from Quinnipiac University has Biden ahead of Trump 48-45 in a head-to-head poll.

However, when the question is changed to include third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West, Trump pulls ahead of Biden 39-38. Nevertheless, we believe there is a lot of signaling going on here. Biden loses 10 points when the third-party candidates are included and Trump loses only 6 points. We suspect that many of the voters threatening to vote third party are just sending Biden a message that they are unhappy about something and want attention. Stein is at 4% and West is at 3%. These voters are definitely Democrats and we suspect when push comes to shove in November, they will not want Trump to win and most will hold their noses and grudgingly vote for Biden, then leave the polling place and throw up. When Jill Stein ran in 2016, she got 1.07% of the vote. She's not going to get 4% this time. The Kennedy voters are trickier to pin down, though. He may pull off some Democrats who like his views on the environment and also some Republican anti-vaxxers. We will have to wait for polls where the Kennedy voters were asked about why they like him and who their second choice is. Or maybe Sarah Longwell will hold a focus group with Kennedy voters. C'mon Sarah, you can do it. (V)

The Libertarian Party is Not Wild about Nicole Shanahan

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would just love to be the Libertarian Party's presidential candidate. That would get him on the ballot in almost all states with no effort. It would really make things much easier for him. The only problem is that the LP is not wild about him and even less enthusiastic about his running mate, Nicole Shanahan. Yesterday, LP National Committee chair Angela McArdle said: "I think that a lot of Libertarians are a little bit confused over why he chose Nicole Shanahan. I'm sure she's a lovely person, but she doesn't necessarily fit into alignment with any of our views." Somehow Kennedy forgot that the smaller parties tend to be very ideological and not big tenty at all. Part of the problem is that Shanahan, a registered Democrat, supported Pete Buttigieg and later Joe Biden in 2020. Neither of them align well with LP goals. McArdle also noted that while picking Shanahan may not disqualify Kennedy from being their candidate, she certainly does not help.

If the LP decides it wants an actual libertarian as their standard bearer, rather than a famous name who does not align well with their philosophy, Kennedy will have to fight state by state to get on the November ballot. Democrats will challenge him in court everywhere. It will be messy. In the end, he might get on the ballot in many states. On the other hand, if he gets the LP nod, many Libertarian voters will reject him because although they like his anti-vaxx views, some of his other views are anathema to them. For example, Kennedy supports a 21-week national abortion ban. Libertarians say it is none of the government's damn business what a women does with her own body. Kennedy also wants rich people to pay more taxes, something most libertarians oppose. He also supports major government intervention on climate change, including the Green New Deal. Libertarians generally oppose big government programs.

Jonathan V. Last at The Bulwark thinks Shanahan is a godsend to Biden. He lists her main qualifications for the second-highest office in the country:

• She's 38 years old, and thus eligible.
• She graduated from college and law school.
• She married and then divorced her second husband, Google cofounder Sergey Brin.
• She asked for $1 billion in the divorce settlement and walked away with an undisclosed sum.
• She may or may not have had an affair with Elon Musk.
• She is "just asking" about vaccines.
• She spent $4 million for a Super Bowl ad supporting Kennedy.
• She has never held any elective office.

Last challenges you to find any vice presidential candidate in all of American history less qualified than Shanahan. Sarah Palin served as governor of a state. Dan Quayle was twice elected to the House and twice elected to the Senate. Even Ross Perot's veep, James Stockdale, was a three-star admiral and genuine war hero. OK, if you want to scrape the bottom of the barrel, there was Lyndon LaRouche's veep in 1992, James Bevel. He was a civil rights activist but was also convicted of incest with one of his daughters and sentenced to 15 years for it. Last does think Kennedy thinks outside the box. It is a brilliant innovation to put your biggest financier on the ballot with you. Hello, Ted Cruz/Harlan Crow 2028.

Shanahan might appeal to loosely right-wing anti-establishment voters who like Candace Owens. But they were never going to vote for Biden anyway. In fact, they probably won't vote at all. Kennedy-Shanahan is like Trump-Whoever, but less antagonistic and without the racism and xenophobia. They are appealing to people with grievances about the world, just like Trump. These are not potential Biden voters.

Donald Trump doesn't know what to make of Kennedy. On the one hand, Trump sees him as a liberal Democrat who could pull votes from Biden. However, he also realizes that Kennedy's anti-vaxx positions will attract some of his voters and could cost him votes as well. If Trump starts attacking Kennedy on Truth Social, you'll know what the Trump campaign's internal polls are saying. It is not inconceivable that some outside Democratic group decides a bit of ratf*cking might be needed later on if Kennedy continues to poll well. Then they could run ads showing a dozen clips of Kennedy saying that vaccines are poison. That will (1) tell the Democrats that Kennedy is bad news and (2) tell the Republicans that Kennedy is good news. A twofer! (V)

Newsom Is Preparing for Trump v2.0

If Donald Trump is elected president (or even if he is not elected but the Supreme Court says he is president, anyway), he is going to get a lot of pushback from the states on many issues, especially climate change. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) is already getting ready to take the lead at pushing back. Due to the nature of the federal system, the president has only limited power to order the states around, especially if Congress is not on board and he has to act using executive orders.

For example, Newsom made a deal with Stellantis last week in which the company, the fourth largest automaker in the world, will meet California's stringent emission standards. So even if Trump relaxes them, Stellantis will still be bound by its agreement with California. There are many other things Newsom can do and is doing. For example, in the area of off-shore drilling, which the federal government controls, Newsom could get the state legislature to pass a law requiring companies doing so to have a massive insurance policy to clean up the mess if something goes wrong. There would be endless lawsuits about it and companies would be hesitant to drill until they were all settled. That could take years. Trump isn't the only one who understands that delay is a useful legal tactic.

The state of California buys a lot of stuff, and Newsom wants to make sure it buys only from companies that comply with California's rules and regulations, which are often stricter than the federal ones. It is unlikely that the Supreme Court would want to establish a principle that the federal government can tell states who they can buy stuff from, because the next Democratic president might have some ideas about purchases by the state of Alabama, among others.

Another tactic is using the courts to slow Trump down. California AGs Xavier Becerra and Rob Bonta sued Trump 136 times when he was president. In more than half the cases, they got at least a partial win. Newsom is also working with the California Air Resources Board to create regulations that will be robust in the worst case. CARB is pushing the EPA to grant all the Clean Air Act waivers it has requested. These would limit pollution from locomotives, trucks, tugboats, and even lawn mowers. If Trump tries to roll back permissions that the government has granted up to 2029, again, there will be court fights. In most cases, the regulations would stay in force until the Supreme Court ruled on them, and that could take years. (V)

Big Oil Is Not Entirely Behind Trump

Donald Trump's environmental policy can be summarized in three words: Drill, baby, drill. So you might think all the oil company executives would be shoveling money into his campaign as fast as they can. Actually, it's more complicated than that. Yes, they like the three-word environmental policy, but they are also afraid that Trump will put steep tariffs on all imported goods, which will get other countries to respond in kind, which will start a global trade war. Oil companies export lots of petroleum products and don't want their foreign markets eliminated.

In addition, oil company executives are not entirely negative on Joe Biden. The IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) contains subsidies for oil companies to capture and store carbon dioxide, which they are eager to use. Also, the transition to green energy is not going to happen at scale without billion-dollar investments in new technology. The oil companies are in a good position to provide the capital and are motivated to get into a new business with a brighter future than fossil fuels.

Darren Woods, CEO of ExxonMobil said: "I was very supportive of the IRA—I am very supportive of the IRA—because as legislated the IRA focuses on carbon intensity and in theory is technology-agnostic. They're not trying to pick a particular technology." Mike Sommers, CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, said his trade group would actively oppose any attempt by Trump to scrap the green energy subsidies in the IRA. Sommers is also worried about Trump's proposed tariffs, which he believes will stifle free trade, which he supports. So all in all, the oil industry is definitely not in the tank for Trump. The oil executives see which way the wind is blowing and want to be in the right place as the green energy transition, which they know is inevitable, plays out. (V)

A Trumper Gives Up!

The most fundamental rule of being a Trumper is: Never, ever admit defeat. The other side is always wrong. Never you. Arizona's pretend-governor and current Senate candidate Kari Lake has now broken the rule. After actually losing the 2022 gubernatorial race, which she still hasn't conceded, Lake claimed that Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer stuffed the ballot box with 300,000 fake votes, which is why then-secretary-of-state Katie Hobbs stated that now-actual-governor Katie Hobbs won. This resulted in numerous threats against Richer's life. Richer responded by suing Lake, saying he and his family were constantly subject to intimidation from Lake supporters.

Lake now decided it would be better to put this behind her and told the court that she would not contest the suit and could the judge please quickly determine the damages. Richer took that as an admission of guilt. He tweeted: "Won't defend / can't defend. I'll get my due. But not the millions of people she lied to."

Lake brushed off Richer's comment by describing it as a political witch hunt and refused to admit culpability. Nevertheless, the judge will soon order her to pay Richer [X amount]. If she refuses, the case will essentially be back on, only she will be in a weaker position. If she pays, that undercuts her claim that she did nothing wrong. If some guy sues her and he has no case but she pays anyway, well, that is not what Trumpers do. Donald would not be proud of that. She does have the feeling that this could cost her big time though, since she said: "They're threatening to take everything I own. What they don't realize is even if they leave me, my husband and children homeless and penniless, that won't stop us."

Previously, Lake did the Trump thing. She claimed she was completely innocent and demanded a jury trial. Why the change of mind? Maybe her lawyers told her that she was going to lose since her statements were false, she should have known they were false, she made them anyway, and Richer suffered injuries as a result. Those are the ingredients of a successful defamation suit. Now she has to worry about the judgment, which could be in the millions. But right now her focus is the Senate race and the lawsuit is just a distraction she wants to get rid of. She had better pray that the judge doesn't get any ideas from the $5 million E. Jean Carroll won the first time, the $83 million she won the second time, or the $148 million the two Georgia election workers were awarded from Rudy Giuliani, who has now filed for bankruptcy. Incidentally, he took his apartment, which had been up for sale for 6 months, off the market in February. (V)

Wisconsin Senate Race Is Now Set

Republicans were struggling to get a candidate to oppose Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI). Their first choice was Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI), but not only is he not going to run for the Senate, he is leaving the House abruptly. None of the other Republicans in the Wisconsin delegation were interested. Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke, who is super Trumpy, made noises about a bid, but in the end didn't pull the trigger. Now what?

Eventually, Wisconsin Republicans settled on wealthy venture capitalist Eric Hovde. Running a rich guy guarantees two things. First, he can self-fund the campaign, saving the NRSC money. Second, he can always be counted on to support bills to cut taxes on rich people, no matter how unpopular the bills are.

One of Hovde's issues is the border. Wisconsin doesn't actually have a land border with any foreign countries, although it does border on Lake Superior, which does border on another country. But Hovde is all worked up over the Mexican border. Whether that is a big issue for Wisconsinites remains to be seen.

Hovde was born in Madison, WI, and raised nearby. He studied at the University of Wisconsin but headed to D.C. after graduating, coming back only in 2011 to run for the Senate. During the campaign, he said he was tired of seeing news about how people were impoverished and suffering due to the recession. He said he would prefer to see more news stories about the national debt. He has also complained that welfare leads to out-of-wedlock births among Black women. He lost the primary to Tommy Thompson, who went on to lose the general election to Baldwin.

Thereafter, Hovde went to live in California, where he lives in a $7 million mansion. He also owns several banks there. Baldwin is going to hit him as an out-of-touch, out-of-state, bank-owning carpetbagger who doesn't understand what life is like for ordinary people in Wisconsin. This is a general problem for the Republicans. They like wealthy businessmen since they can self-fund their campaigns, but then they get attacked as wealthy businessmen who don't understand the problems ordinary people have. It is hard to have it both ways. Hovde has a problem common to many of these candidates. One recent poll showed that 84% of Wisconsin residents knew little to nothing about him. This will give Baldwin the opportunity to define him herself. A recent Emerson College poll has Baldwin ahead of Hovde 45-42.

Wisconsin is the ultimate swing state. You don't have to look any further than the two current senators to see that. Baldwin is a progressive and the first lesbian elected to the Senate. The other one, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI), is a conservative former business owner.

Here is the list of what we consider the 10 most competitive Senate races.

State	Democrat	Republican	Notes
Arizona	Rep. Ruben Gallego	Kari Lake	Gallego is progressive and Lake is a Trumper
Florida	Debbie Mucarsel-Powell	Sen. Rick Scott	Scott is very unpopular but Florida is a red state now
Maryland	Rep. David Trone or Angela Alsobrooks	Larry Hogan	Hogan is popular but Maryland is very blue
Michigan	Rep. Elissa Slotkin	?	The GOP primary is August 6
Montana	Sen. Jon Tester	Tim Sheehy	Tester is well known and Sheehy is from Minnesota
Nevada	Sen. Jacky Rosen	?	The GOP primary is June 11
Ohio	Sen. Sherrod Brown	Bernie Moreno	Brown is progressive and Moreno is a wealthy Trumper
Pennsylvania	Sen. Bob Casey	David McCormick	McCormick lives in Connecticut
Texas	Colin Allred	Sen. Ted Cruz	Cruz is the least popular senator but Texas is still red
Wisconsin	Sen. Tammy Baldwin	Eric Hovde	Hovde is a wealthy California businessman & bank owner

In Maryland, Democrats have to decide between Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, who is Black, and wealthy Rep. David Trone (D-MD), who is white. Neither of them is nearly as well known as former Maryland governor Larry Hogan. If Trone wins the primary, he can drown Hogan in ads. If Alsobrooks wins, she will have the progressive vote locked up.

Republicans have primaries in Michigan and Nevada. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) is not waiting to win her primary, which will be easy. She is out raising boatloads of money. The Republican primary will be nasty. The Republican primary in Nevada will also be nasty, with a dozen candidates, none of them well known. The state party favors Sam Brown, an Army veteran, wealthy businessman, and failed 2022 Senate candidate. (V)

Kuster's Last Stand

Democrats got some bad news yesterday when Rep. Annie Kuster (D-NH) announced that she will not run for reelection in November. Kuster said that she would finish out her term, though. She didn't give a real reason for retiring, other than that she never planned to stay in Congress forever. She is 67. The district, which covers the less-populous western two-thirds of New Hampshire, including Nashua and Concord, is D+2, which means it will be a competitive race in November.

Kuster comes from a political family. Her great-grandfather, John McLane, was governor of New Hampshire from 1905 to 1907. Her father, Malcolm McLane, was mayor of Concord. Her mother, Susan McLane, was a state senator. Annie got her bachelor's degree from Dartmouth and her J.D. from Georgetown. She worked as a lobbyist in New Hampshire for 20 years before being elected to the House. Among other things, she lobbied on behalf of Hoffman-LaRoche to kill a bill that would have banned rohypnol, which is often used for date rapes. That is a bit surprising since she said that she had been sexually assaulted as a college student. Once in Congress, she fought against the National Security Agency, which had secretly tapped into data centers run by Google and Yahoo and was siphoning off data about Americans who had not committed any crimes. In D.C. she lives with her friend, Minority Whip Katherine Clark, and other House members.

The race to replace her started instantly. Five Republicans, namely Mark Kilbane, Robin Ng, Jason Riddle, Paul Wagner and Lily William, have already jumped in. So far, no Democrats have announced, but surely a number will before long. (V)

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