RNC, Day 3: It's Vance's Party; Cry if You Want To

The theme of the third day of the Republican National Convention was "Make America Strong Once Again" (national defense). Of the three days thus far, this was the one that most clearly adhered to the battle plan, as the day's proceedings were VERY militaristic. That said, the real story of the day was Sen. J.D. Vance's (R-OH) introduction to a national audience.

If you want to watch, here is C-SPAN's coverage of the day's main session:

Yesterday, we provided a video of paint drying, in the event that readers preferred to watch something more interesting than a political convention. Reader C.H. in Atlanta, GA, observes that paint drying might be a bit too raucous, and that this video of grass growing might be more suitable.

And now, our take on RNC Day 3:

1. We've Been Remiss, Part I: When we write these reports, the tendency is to focus on specific moments/speakers, and not so much on meta storylines. So, let's now do something about that. One thing we should have pointed out is that the conventioneers in Milwaukee are VERY enthusiastic. That's generally the case with conventions, since the people who get invitations tend to be the hardcore base. However, it's been a great couple of weeks for the GOP, mostly because it's been a very bad couple of weeks for Joe Biden, and it's clear that the folks in Milwaukee are feeling particularly good.
   
   
2. We've Been Remiss, Part II: Another thing we should have pointed out is that you could watch all 18 hours of C-SPAN video we have linked to, and count the specific policy proposals being made on your fingers, and you would not need your second hand. It's an endless parade of generalities; it's easy enough to say that something should be done about the economy, but it's much harder to say what that thing should be. Is this lack of substance a product of the fact that it's a convention? Yes. Is it also a product of the fact that the modern-day GOP has relatively few policy positions, and the ones it does have are often unpopular? Also yes. In particular, and illustrative of the effort to avoid touchy issues, we are not entirely certain that we've heard any of the 120+ speakers thus far utter the word "abortion." By contrast, at least a dozen speakers have said: "The Democrats don't even know what a woman is," which might be a "zinger" but isn't a policy statement.
   
   
3. We've Been Remiss, Part III: Finally, after Donald Trump was shot, every prominent Democrat in the country expressed relief that he was OK. By contrast, most or all of the prominent Republicans quickly moved to weaponize the attack. That has continued at the convention. There have been plenty of references to Trump being a victim of the Democrats and their rhetoric, but we don't recall a single convention speaker expressing relief that the former president is OK. Not even Trump's kids. Do Republicans only care about Trump the symbol, and not so much about Trump the person? That's certainly the impression that is being given off.
   
   
4. Fact Check: Yesterday, we wrote about Starbucks' support of the RNC, and how that appears to run contrary to the company's left-leaning public image. As several readers wrote in to point out, the story has now been debunked, and nearly all the outlets that ran with it have withdrawn it. It turns out that Starbucks is providing free refreshments for first responders at both conventions, which is not quite the same thing as sponsoring the RNC.
   
   
5. What Does Donald Think?: You have heard "What would Jesus do?" Well, most of the networks covering the convention seem to have decided that a key feature of their coverage needs to be "What does Donald think?" They are mostly doing a lot of split-screens, so you can see both the speaker and how Trump is reacting. The problem here is that he has the exact same facial expression every time, which looks like a grimace, but is probably meant to communicate something like "this is very important and I am taking it very seriously." The look should be familiar to readers, but just in case, here it is:
   
   
   
   In any case, this is not a normal feature of convention coverage, and we don't get the point of featuring him so much, given his well-established lack of emotional range. Sometimes he raises his fist, but that's about it. And note that the above is a photograph; the video camera that's on Trump shoots him from his left side, so it's not even showing the ear bandage.
   
   
6. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL): Colin Jost, current co-anchor of "Weekend Update" on Saturday Night Live, wrote a book declaring that he (Jost) has the world's most punchable face. We think Gaetz should sue for trademark infringement.
   
   
7. Peter Navarro: Trump adviser Peter Navarro got out of the clink yesterday, and promptly made his way to Milwaukee to give a speech. He continued with an ongoing theme of this convention, which is "law and order is the greatest when it's applied to our opponents, but totally unfair and corrupt when applied to us." We would not be doing our job if we did not point out that "the laws only apply to the opposition" is a core element of fascism.
   
   
8. Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND): Wow, he is such a bad public speaker. We guess you don't get a lot of experience speaking before large crowds when you come from a state with only one city of 100,000+. In particular, some people know how to deliver a joke line, some don't, and Burgum definitely doesn't. For his purposes, however, it does not matter. Burgum's speech, heavy on energy-related stuff, was meant for an audience of one, as the Governor was auditioning for appointment as Secretary of Energy in a second Trump administration. If Burgum lands the job, we wonder if he'll be as surprised as Rick Perry was when he learns that his primary responsibility will be to oversee America's nuclear stockpile.
   
   
9. Shabbos Kestenbaum: Kestenbaum was one of yesterday's "regular Americans," to the extent that someone who just graduated Harvard and who is now suing the university for being antisemitic can be considered an average Joe. His speech was a litany of right-wing talking points about higher education, and how universities indoctrinate students, and so on and so forth. However, it was VERY well delivered, especially for a guy in his early twenties who presumably does not have all that much experience speaking before large crowds. One purpose of conventions is to identify future talent (see Obama, Barack at the 2004 convention), and GOP pooh bahs undoubtedly made a point of writing down Kestenbaum's name after what they saw last night. Don't be surprised to see him running for Congress as soon as he's old enough.
   
   
10. Usha Vance and J.D. Vance: The newly-minted VP candidate was introduced by his wife, and then took the floor himself. We have already written that Vance comes with some baggage, in that his hillbilly identity is transparently phony and his past rhetoric has been far-right, anti-Trump and anti-corporation. Each of these things is not great, albeit for different constituencies.
    
    Anyhow, job one (which began with Mrs. Vance) was to humanize the would-be VP. Viewers were advised that Vance was born po' and loves puppies, his kids, his momma and his meemaw (who was, it would seem, armed to the teeth).
    
    After that, and once Mr. Vance took the stage, there were really three themes. The first was that Joe Biden is the personification of everything that is wrong with America, as the President was blamed for everything that Vance could come up with. In particular, we did not realize that Americans want to re-litigate NAFTA, but apparently they do, at least based on the Republican convention. Vance also attacked Biden's policy on China, which is not surprising, but as part of that the Senator also bemoaned how much Chinese fentanyl Biden has allowed into the country. This confused us, because we could have sworn it was undocumented Mexican immigrants who were bringing in all the fentanyl. Is it now every one of America's foreign rivals? Are people dying from illegally imported North Korean fentanyl? Iranian fentanyl? Gasp... Canadian fentanyl? Someone needs to look into this.
    
    Moving along, the second theme was, in so many words, "I love, love, love Donald Trump. Please disregard anything you've heard to the contrary."
    
    And the third theme, which dovetails with the first, was piles and piles of red meat for voters in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Clearly, Vance is going to be spending much of the campaign in the lower Midwest, telling people in those states that he feels their pain. Bill Clinton could sell that; we'll see if Vance has even a fraction of #42's empathy.
    
    Keep reading for more on Vance.

There you have it. We're 75% of the way through the RNC, which is a pleasing thought. On the other hand, we're only 37.5% of the way through both major-party conventions, which is a little demoralizing. Though if Joe Biden does throw in the towel (see below), it would mean the 2024 Democratic National Convention could be the first truly interesting convention of (Z)'s lifetime. (Z)

Schiff Jumps Ship

Soon-to-be-Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA) yesterday called for Joe Biden to step aside and let a younger Democrat run in his place. He said he had serious concerns about Biden being able to win the race. Now, 22 other Democrats in Congress have called for Biden to drop out, but this one is important for a special reason. He is very close with Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). It is unlikely that he would have gone public, as he did yesterday in an interview with the Los Angeles Times, without first discussing it carefully with Pelosi. If she had strongly advised him not to go public, we doubt he would have, as it damages Biden if he stays on. This is not a joke. He (and probably Pelosi) now really want Biden out. They surely think the public perception of Biden as a kindly, but way-past-his-prime leader, is now too solid to change no matter how many interviews his gives. And what matters is the public perception, not the reality. That's politics.

Before putting in the dagger, Schiff praised Biden: "Biden has been one of the most consequential presidents in our nation's history, and his lifetime of service as a Senator, a Vice President, and now as President has made our country better. But our nation is at a crossroads. A second Trump presidency will undermine the very foundation of our democracy, and I have serious concerns about whether the President can defeat Donald Trump in November."

Biden surely understands that Schiff wouldn't have gone public without his close friend Pelosi's approval. She apparently didn't want to go public herself yet to avoid massive damage to Biden should he stay in. But the message is clear: Pelosi, one of the shrewdest people in D.C., thinks Biden has to go.

A problem facing the Democrats is if Biden takes too long to drop out, there won't be time for a miniprimary in any form and Kamala Harris will have to be the nominee without having really earned it by beating other contenders. If there is a series of debates or town halls with other contenders and Harris comes out on top, she will have a lot more credibility than if the White House just sends a puff of white smoke up the chimney and announces it is Harris.

Biden is digging his heels in and doesn't seem to be budging, with very little time left. One thing he said yesterday is that he would drop out if he were diagnosed with a medical condition. This might allow him to save some face dropping out. He could ask his personal physician: "Hey, doc, do I have anything?" and the doctor could surely find something.

Note that all of the previous paragraphs were written early in the day on Wednesday. Just hours after (V) handed the baton to (Z), which happens around 2:00 PT, the White House announced that Biden has tested positive for COVID-19. Meanwhile, and consistent with Schiff's public declaration, CNN reported that Pelosi has privately told Biden he cannot win, and he's going to cost the blue team the House if he tries. That means that he's now getting the full-court press from Congress' three most prominent Democrats: Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY).

Assuming Biden is planning to stay in the race, then the COVID-19 diagnosis really could not come at a worse time. Yes, everyone knows that anyone can get COVID at any age. Still, for Biden to fall ill in a way that leaves him incapacitated nonetheless underscores the notion that he's old, infirm, etc. It's not fair, but there's nothing in the Constitution that says voters' decision making has to be fair or evidence-based.

The second problem is that the President is now sidelined at a time when he really needs to be out and about. He had to cancel an event in Nevada yesterday and, obviously, he was not able to meet with any members of Congress to try to get them back on board. Further, if he had a standard cold, or some other such condition, he could get back to work as soon as he felt well enough. But with this particular disease, if he hurries his return, he opens himself up to accusations that he was willing to put people's lives at risk in service of his own personal political needs.

On the other hand, if you want to get conspiratorial, then a COVID-19 diagnosis could give Biden cover for bowing out. He could say something like: "I have contracted this terrible disease at a particularly tough time, and I cannot allow the Democratic Party to suffer because of it. To that end, I am going to step down as the presidential nominee of the Democratic Party. The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the one."

And note that even if the COVID diagnosis does not conveniently fill in a blank that needed to be filled, it could push Biden over the edge, nonetheless. That is to say, even if he had intended to stay the course, the illness might cause him to say: "You know, this is a pretty good reminder that man is mortal. Maybe I don't want to spend some major chunk of my remaining years doing the most stressful job on earth, and instead I'd like to retire to a life of leisure and family time. In fact, maybe this is the sign from God that I talked about with George Stephanopoulos."

The upshot here is that the writing on the wall is getting quite large. Earlier this week, maybe it was in a 50-point font. Now, maybe it's in a 100-point font. The last Democratic heavy hitter who still appears to be in Biden's corner is Barack Obama. However, he would never go public in calling for his former VP to stand down unless: (1) the Democrats felt there was no other option left, or (2) Biden's demise was already a done deal. So, Obama's semi-silence is not necessarily instructive. He might also be working behind the scenes to get Biden to drop out.

One other thing. Very late yesterday, DNC member Donna Brazile let slip that the Committee has delayed the virtual roll-call vote that was set to nominate Biden. The Committee is not announcing this loudly, as that would be embarrassing for Biden and would be more fodder for "Democrats in disarray" stories. However, the roll call WAS going to start next week, and now it's been pushed back to early August. Clearly, the DNC thinks a change in ticket is a real possibility.

The bottom line is that yesterday was not a good day for the President. We'll say more below, in the discussion of the day's new polls. (V & Z)

Who's Vance?

The Republican nominee for vice president was born James Donald Bowman. After his mother's third husband, Bob Hamel, adopted him, his name became James Donald Hamel. After he got married in 2014, he changed it to James David Vance (Vance is his mother's maiden name). Maybe now that he is all in MAGA, he could change it again, to James Donald Vance. He hasn't used that one yet. Who is this guy, anyway?

There have been many stories about him in the media, mostly based on his Senate voting records and some speeches he has made. One interesting profile is in Politico Magazine, written by Ian Ward, who interviewed Vance in depth earlier this year.

To start with, as we've noted numerous times, Vance's hillbilly shtick is phony. Yes, he was raised in poverty in Middletown, OH, which is halfway in between Dayton and Cincinnati. But after graduating from high school, he joined the Marine Corps and was deployed to Iraq. The Corps got his life in gear. After serving for 4 years, he left the Marines as a corporal and went to Ohio State University, graduating summa cum laude in political science. Then he got a J.D. from Yale Law School, where he was an editor of the law journal.

When Ward interviewed Vance, the Senator enjoyed debating Ward and discussing ideas on an intellectual level. Ward was struck by the breadth and depth of Vance's knowledge and interests. He could talk about the nuances of railway tank cars and their relevance to rail safety legislation, different approaches to collective bargaining, the "materialistic" and "culturalist" approaches to political economy, the memory of the French resistance to the Vichy regime, and why using GDP as an indicator of progress is wrong. Think: a modern William F. Buckley Jr.

He fits into the loose New Far Right. He sees an expanding global economy, technological innovation and a relaxation of traditional social mores as engines of civilization collapse. Two years ago, this stuff would have been seen as a weird, but minor, intellectual fad. Now Vance is seen as the future of the Republican Party and the frontrunner for the 2028 GOP nomination.

Like all politicians, Vance has strengths and weaknesses. He's no good on the stump (although his speech at the RNC was decent, if not great). He strains too much, like a high school thespian trying to wring every last drop of emotion out of the script. He's not a natural like Trump and can't channel Trump's locker room bellicosity. He's much better at adversarial interviews on TV with smart people—say, someone like Chuck Todd. Unfortunately, nobody watches those. Ward says that Vance is smarter, more intellectual, and more bookish than the average elected official. A hillbilly he is definitely not. Whether being the smartest guy on the ballot is a plus remains to be seen. With Trump's base, the smartest guy on the ticket is as popular as the smartest kid in the class is in middle school. So Vance has to keep voters thinking about his life as a poor kid, not his life as an editor of the Yale Law Journal.

If you want a list of 55 factoids about Vance, here you are. The one that is likely to get the most play is a now-public message he sent to a friend in Feb. 2016: "I go back and forth between thinking Trump is a cynical a**hole like Nixon who wouldn't be that bad (and might even prove useful) or that he's America's Hitler." (V)

If Trump Wins, Who Will Get Vance's Senate Seat?

If Donald Trump is elected president, J.D. Vance will have to give up his Senate seat and Gov. Mike DeWine (R-OH) will get to appoint someone to occupy the seat until a special election is held in Nov. 2026 for a "permanent" replacement to serve until Jan. 3, 2029. Of course, the appointee will have a leg up on all other Senate wannabes in the special election, so the jostling for the seat has already begun.

DeWine has said: "I've certainly thought about it." How could he not have? One of his aides has said his phone has been blowing up with people calling to suggest every person who has ever run for public office in Ohio in the last decade.

DeWine is not especially Trumpy. In fact, he is one of the few Republican governors who has not endorsed Trump. In 2022, Vance ran in the Senate primary against state Sen. Matt Dolan (R), who had DeWine's endorsement. Dolan lost to Vance. Dolan's family owns the Cleveland Guardians (née Cleveland Indians) baseball team. Having a ton of money doesn't always mean you win, though.

DeWine could easily use the appointment to make a statement. Replacing a very Trumpy senator with a not-so-Trumpy senator would definitely be a statement. And Dolan isn't the only name being bandied about. Reps. Dave Joyce (R-OH) and Mike Carey (R-OH) are also possibilities. On the other hand, don't expect Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) to get the nod, even though he wants it so badly he can taste it.

If DeWine has trouble making a pick, Vivek Ramaswamy has a suggestion to make DeWine's life easier. Ramaswamy suggested appointing Vivek Ramaswamy to the vacant seat. And you didn't realize that Ramaswamy cared about easing DeWine's troubles, did you? Now you know. (V)

Trump Still Opposes Gun Control

You might be wondering if Donald Trump's brush with death last Saturday changed his position on gun control. Rest assured, it did not. He still opposes any limits on gun purchases, such as prohibiting people under 21 or 25 or some other age from buying military weapons. Such a limit wouldn't have saved him from the assassination attempt, since the shooter's father, not the shooter, bought the assault rifle. Nevertheless, such a ban could prevent other deaths since mass shooters are often young.

At an event hosted by the U.S. Concealed Carry Association, Chris LaCivita, a top aide to Trump and chief operating officer of the RNC, said: "We'll see a continuation of supporting and defending the Second Amendment, and really where that comes into play is, you know, the judiciary." In other words, if Trump wins and Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas retire, expect Trump to nominate gun-loving replacements. Maybe he could let half a dozen potential justices compete at target shooting run by the NRA, with the ones with the highest scores being nominated. Think of the televised drama at the shooting match. LaCivita also said that he carries a concealed weapon with him when he is not with Trump. That way, if confronted with a shooter using an AR-15-type semiautomatic rifle 450 feet away, he could shoot back with his little pistol.

Some Republicans say that the problem is mental health, but they are generally not interested in doing anything to help people with mental health problems. Many of them oppose background checks, which would at least make it more difficult for people with mental health problems to buy weapons, especially military-style assault rifles.

So far, there is little public evidence that the attempt on Trump's life was politically motivated. So to some extent, this attempt is more like a mass shooting, where a disturbed person was angry with the world or wanted to go down in a blaze of attention, rather than a political assassination. Between 1966 and 2019, most mass shootings were carried out by white men who bought the gun themselves legally, the only major exception being school shootings, where the shooter often used a gun purchased by a family member. Military-style semi-automatic weapons are not needed for hunting deer or home defense. There is no legitimate reason for individuals not in the military or law enforcement to have an AR-15. But even after this incident, Trump does not want to place any limits on gun purchases by anyone. (V)

Trump May Have No Coattails

While many Republicans are confident that Donald Trump will be elected president, they are much less confident that Republican Senate candidates will be able to grab onto his coattails and coast to wins themselves. Polling shows the Democrat is leading the Republican in every competitive Senate race except Montana. In many cases, the Democrat is running 10 points or more ahead of Joe Biden. In Pennsylvania, Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) is running 14 points ahead of Biden. In Virginia, Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) is running 15 points ahead of Biden.

Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), head of the NRSC, acts like he is not worried. He noted that in 68 of the past 69 Senate races in presidential years, the party that won the state's electoral votes also won the Senate race. The only exception was the 2020 Maine race in which Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) was reelected while Joe Biden carried the state. But this year could be different since Biden is personally unpopular, not the Democratic Party.

Polling shows that the average Democratic candidate in the 11 most competitive races leads the Republican 55% to 45% with Biden on top of the ticket. With Harris on top of the ticket, the Senate Democrats do better, 56% to 44%. With Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) as the presidential nominee, it gets even better, 57% to 43%

Among plausible outcomes, the best case for the Democrats is winning all the competitive races. That is entirely feasible as they are ahead everywhere now except Montana, and the last poll there could be a fluke, as Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) has won three times there already and is running against a guy from Minnesota. But even if the Democrats win all those races, they will have only 50 seats in the Senate because West Virginia is completely lost. With a 50-50 Senate, President of the Senate J.D. Vance would have a full-time job back in the Senate, where he is now. Only in a Trump administration, he would be breaking ties all the time. He could end up as one of the most powerful veeps ever.

In order to actually block Trump's nominees, Democrats would need to oust one or more incumbent Republicans. The most likely races are in Texas, where Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) is polling only 3 points behind Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), and Florida, where former representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is challenging Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL). It is not surprising that the Democrats' best chances are against the two senators most disliked by all the other senators. Still, counting on ticket splitting in two fairly red states is like counting on a miracle.

Since the entire House is up in November, the Democrats have a greater chance of winning that than winning the Senate. If they can capture the House, they can block all legislation except the budget, forcing a potential President Trump to govern by XO. That is a much weaker position than getting Congress to pass laws and allocate funds as he wishes. (V)

Georgia Appeals Court Will Hold Hearings on Willis' Case in December

Donald Trump continues to have good luck on the legal front. Judge Aileen Cannon threw out the Mar-a-Lago documents case because according to her, 30 years of special counsels have been operating illegally, so Jack Smith has no authority to bring a case against Trump. Smith appealed the ruling yesterday. He didn't ask for Cannon to be removed from the case, but could yet do that. The appeals court could take months to reach a decision, although courts can also move quickly when they want to. The Jan. 6 case in D.C. has been set back by the Supreme Court's immunity ruling that presidents are mostly sorta like kings.

The most damaging case left is the Georgia RICO case, because it is a state case and Trump could not pardon himself if he is convicted there. He got a lucky break there when Fulton County D.A. Fani Willis mixed work with fun, and commenced a relationship with the lead prosecutor. He quit the case but Trump sued, saying Fani Willis also had to drop off the case. The judge admonished her for not having more sense, but kept her on the case. Trump appealed. Now the appeals court has scheduled oral hearings for the appeal on Dec. 5. The three-judge panel will have until mid-March to issue a ruling. If Willis can stay on the case, then the trial will be able to begin in late spring at the earliest. If Trump loses the election, the trial will indeed take place then. If he is in the White House, Trump will surely ask the Supreme Court to rule that sitting presidents can't be tried, even in state courts.

At this point, there are four legal events that could still happen before the election, with varying amounts of danger for Trump. First, and least dangerous, is that the appeals court in the E. Jean Carroll civil defamation case could order Trump to pay Carroll $88 million. He could try appealing to the New York Court of Appeals, but that court could deny cert on the grounds that this is just a routine defamation case. In the worst case, he could just pay her and be done with it.

Second, a different appeals court could rule on the case NY AG Letitia James brought and order Trump to pay a fine of over half a billion dollars for defrauding the New York banks. Again, Trump could try to go to the Court of Appeals. This is a more complicated case with a greater chance of getting cert.

Third, Judge Tanya Chutkan could begin hearings in August or September on whether riling up a crowd to storm the Capitol is a core constitutional duty of the president. The hearing could allow Jack Smith to present all his evidence and remind voters of what Trump did on Jan. 6. There is no chance that the trial could begin before the election.

Fourth, Judge Juan Merchan is currently scheduled to sentence Trump for his 34-count conviction on Sept. 18. Merchan could conceivably sentence Trump to 1 day per count, revoke his bail, and send him to Rikers Island immediately for a 34-day free vacation at the expense of New York State. It's his call. Arguments like "I'm too busy now to go to jail" might not impress the judge, whom Trump has repeatedly insulted. (V)

Today's Presidential Polls

Another day of not very good polls for Joe Biden. When one or two polls say he's down in, say, Georgia, those could be outliers. But when a whole bunch of polls say the same thing, it's much more likely to be correct.

At the moment, supporters of Biden—including people in the White House—are pointing to the FiveThirtyEight prediction model, which still has Biden as a slight favorite to win the White House. We've had a bunch of questions about the model, and whether it should be taken seriously. We were going to address the matter this weekend, but how about we just do it now?

Besides the FiveThirtyEight model, the other predictive tool that still favors Biden is Allan Lichtman's "Keys to the White House." What these two models have in common is that they very heavily weight fundamentals—things like unemployment, inflation, the stock market, etc. Lichtman's model does not incorporate polling at all, while polls are a relatively small part of FiveThirtyEight's algorithm, at least at this point in the cycle. The various models that are primarily poll-driven all have Trump as a small-to-moderate favorite.

So, which approach is the correct one? We wish we could tell you. In most elections, focusing on fundamentals is an appropriate choice through the end of August or so, because so many voters aren't paying attention and don't really know the candidates. However, Biden and Trump are two of the best-known candidates in American political history. So, a fundamentals-first approach may not be called for in this particular cycle.

Another thing that is not a great sign for Biden: People like Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer have been interpreting polls for decades, and have access to fine-grained information that the general public does not. And, as we note above, Pelosi and Schumer are scared witless.

And to pile on a bit more, if you go back to 1936, there were 15 races featuring incumbent presidents. Only two incumbents who were behind in mid-July went on to win, George W. Bush in 2004 and Harry Truman in 1948. All the others who were trailing, lost.

All of this said, most polls still have 10%-20% of the electorate who are not backing a major-party candidate. As we have written many times, the final percentage is almost never that high, and usually checks in at something less than 5%. If we presume that 8%-12% of those voters will eventually cast ballots for one of the two major-party candidates, then Joe Biden would be in a position to win if he can take a majority of those votes. So, could he? Yes, he could. In particular, in an era where ticket-splitting is rare, it's hard to believe that huge numbers of voters would vote for a Democratic U.S. Senate candidate but not for the Democratic presidential candidate. Put another way, when you see that, say, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) is at 50% in Wisconsin and Biden is at 43%, it's entirely plausible that 7% of voters are strong for Baldwin, and are hoping for a different presidential candidate, but will fall in line behind Biden if they end up with no other choice.

We're just trying to give readers all the various things to consider. Which of these things is most instructive, however, we just don't know. (Z)

State	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Start	End	Pollster
Arizona	36%	46%	Jul 15	Jul 16	Emerson Coll.
Florida	44%	50%	Jul 15	Jul 16	Insider Advantage
Georgia	39%	44%	Jul 15	Jul 16	Emerson Coll.
Georgia	43%	46%	Jul 12	Jul 15	Florida Atlantic U.
Georgia	44%	47%	Jul 15	Jul 16	Insider Advantage
Michigan	40%	43%	Jul 15	Jul 16	Emerson Coll.
North Carolina	38%	47%	Jul 15	Jul 16	Emerson Coll.
Nevada	40%	43%	Jul 15	Jul 16	Emerson Coll.
Pennsylvania	40%	46%	Jul 15	Jul 16	Emerson Coll.
Virginia	45%	41%	Jul 12	Jul 15	Florida Atlantic U.
Wisconsin	43%	46%	Jul 15	Jul 16	Emerson Coll.
Wisconsin	47%	46%	Jul 11	Jul 12	PPP

Click on a state name for a graph of its polling history.

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