Takeaways from New Hampshire

Everyone has had time to digest the result of the New Hampshire primary, so let's see what the takeaways are from different media outlets:

The New York Times

• Trump demonstrated his command of the G.O.P. in a purple state.
• Haley has an incredibly rocky road ahead.
• The old guard of the G.O.P. is a dwindling faction.
• Biden, Democratic grumbling aside, is cruising to renomination.
• Trump's strength may not translate to the general election.

The Washington Post

• It looks all but over.
• Haley voters were meh about her, which says something about Trump.
• Exit poll: New Hampshire has fewer election deniers than Iowa.
• Exit poll: 67% of voters oppose a federal law banning abortion.
• Haley's reasons for staying in appear elusive.
• Biden's big win erases any doubt.

CNN

• Trump wants Haley out—now.
• Haley says GOP race is far from over.
• Haley's argument: Trump is a loser.
• Warning signs for Trump.
• Biden's general election bid takes shape.

AP

• Trump has a glide path.
• A win that came with warnings.
• Haley is pushing ahead.
• Too little too late?
• Biden's win that doesn't count.

NBC

• Trump increases the pressure to end the campaign.
• A warning sign for Trump.
• Governors don't guarantee a win.
• Democrats are still with Biden.

Reuters

• A prickly path for Haley.
• Red flags for Trump.
• Trump also has strengths.
• No worries for Biden.
• Indies helped Haley.

The Hill

• Trump cements status as almost certain nominee.
• Biden brushes off primary challenger.
• Haley dealt a blow.
• Trump win highlights divide in GOP.
• Primary season looks short and drama-free.

The Guardian

• The independent vote didn't topple Trump but it should still make him nervous.
• Haley remains undaunted after two bruising losses.
• Biden avoided embarrassment.
• Democrats and Republicans appear ready to turn their attention to the general election.
• Trump's election lie was not as popular in New Hampshire as in Iowa.

There is a lot of agreement here. First, Donald Trump is almost certainly the Republican nominee. Second, Trump didn't do so well with independents, or even with his own party. Third, while Nikki Haley is still in the game, she has a very steep hill to climb. Fourth, Joe Biden is not in any trouble.

The next state up is Nevada, in February. It has both a primary (in which no delegates will be awarded) and then a caucus. Neither candidate is campaigning there and nobody is taking either one seriously. After that comes South Carolina on Feb. 24. That is a long gap. Will Haley hang in there? If Charles Koch keeps shoveling money at her, she probably will, but if Koch gets tired of it, then it will be all over. (V)

New Hampshire Voters Won't All Vote for Trump If He Is Convicted of a Crime

CBS News has published an interesting article on the New Hampshire exit polls. First, let's look at how strongly the Trump voters support Trump:

What is clear here is that the overwhelming number of Trump voters are locked in. He could be living in Federal Prison Camp, Pensacola, in November and they would still vote for him. But 16% might not. And 3% only voted for him because they didn't like Haley. We don't know why. Maybe they don't like women, brown people, or children of recent immigrants. If there happened to be a white man other than Trump on the ballot, would they vote for him? We don't know. We do know that if 3% of Trump voters vote for Biden, that would make a huge difference, as eight states were decided by 3 points or less last time.

Another question got to the heart of Trump's appeal. It was: "How do you feel about the country today?" Here are the results:

Wow. A full 77% are dissatisfied or angry. As we noted yesterday, Trump voters are angry. They may not even know why or what they are angry at, but they are angry. Biden seems like more of the same, so they vote for Trump.

Now here is a biggie: "Is Trump fit to be president if convicted of a crime?":

Whoa. A full 47% say he would not be fit to be president if convicted of a crime. If he sees this poll, he is going to order his lawyers to pull out all stops trying to get all his trials delayed. If the D.C. Court of Appeals and the Supreme Court rule quickly on immunity and the trial about Jan. 6 moves forward quickly, there is a realistic chance Trump will be convicted by November and maybe even that the appeals will have run out. We don't believe for a second that 47% of Republicans will dump him if he is convicted, but if 4.7% of Republicans either vote for Biden, vote for a third party, or sit out the election, that could do Trump in.

A slightly different way of slicing the New Hampshire voters is to ask the same question of the people who voted for Trump on Tuesday. In other words, exclude the Haley voters. Here is that result:

Even among people who voted for Trump, 11% consider a conviction disqualifying. Among Haley voters, 85% consider a conviction disqualifying. That explains the differences between the last two charts.

The poll has a number of other interesting findings. Among Trump voters, 83% think Trump won in 2020, 77% think immigration is by far the biggest issue, and 76% want a national ban on abortion. Among Haley voters, 86% want a candidate with the right temperament, 66% think foreign policy is the most important issue, and 55% oppose a national abortion ban. Now remember, many of the Haley voters are independents, but they also get to vote in November. (V)

Biden and Harris Hold Rally about Reproductive Rights

Yesterday, we ran an item on Jill Filipovic's whining that Joe Biden doesn't understand that abortion is his ticket to victory. We listed 10 recent headlines showing that Biden is not asleep on the job, despite what Filipovic thinks. As if to emphasize that, Biden and Kamala Harris kicked off their joint campaign with a rally in Manassas, VA, on Tuesday. Here is a photo from their rally:

Do you get the impression that Biden is not planning to talk much about reproductive rights this year? We don't. If you happen to run into Filipovic today, kindly point our blog out to her. Thank you.

Biden and Harris and their respective spouses made a rare appearance together. Usually they campaign separately to cover more ground at the same time, so this is fairly unusual. Biden was introduced by a Texas woman, Amanda Zurawski, who almost died during her pregnancy in 2022. She noted that Trump brags about killing Roe and said: "Trump brags about killing Roe v. Wade. It is unthinkable to me that anyone could cheer on these abortion bans that nearly took my life."

Biden said that the person most responsible for Roe being repealed is Donald Trump, who appointed three right-wing justices to the Supreme Court. He added his take on the Supreme Court: "They ripped away a fundamental constitutional right that was in place for nearly 50 years."

Biden asked the people in the audience to do what they could to help the Democrats take over both chambers of Congress. He said that if Congress passed a bill to restore Roe and make it the law of the land by legislation, he would gladly sign it. Incidentally, Biden's choice of Manassas is not because he is a Civil War buff. House district VA-10, where Manassas is located, is an open seat because Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-VA) is not running for reelection due to a serious illness. And nearby swing district VA-07 is also an open seat because Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) is running for governor in 2025. Hence Biden's emphasis on congressional races. Both women flipped Republican seats in 2018. Given how close the House is and how close to the White House Northern Virginia is, expect Biden to show up more than a couple of times in Prince William, Fairfax, Loudoun, Orange, Culpeper, Spotsylvania and adjacent counties this year.

Protesters who oppose Biden's position on the war in Gaza interrupted his rally at least a dozen times. This is likely to happen at future rallies as well. In the event that the protests split the Democrats and elect Donald Trump, we suspect that the protesters are not going to be pleased with Donald Trump's Middle East policy, which is basically: "What Bibi wants, Bibi gets." (V)

Trump's Jan. 6 Trial Will Likely Be Delayed

Yesterday, Judge Tanya Chutkan announced that she is going to try Jan. 6 defendant Anthony Mastanduno on April 2. He is charged with civil disorder and resisting or impeding officers. The consequence of this decision is that the planned date of Trump's trial on federal charges is almost certainly going to slip from March 4 until mid-April, at the earliest. On the other hand, the trial can't start until the D.C. Court of Appeals rules on whether presidents are above the law and then the Supreme Court also rules on it. Oral hearings have already been held at the Appeals Court level and a decision is expected soon, but the Supreme Court could slow-walk the case so March 4 might not have been feasible anyway.

Another consequence of the shift is that March 4 is the day before Super Tuesday. If Trump had gone on trial the Monday before Super Tuesday, that could have reminded voters of all the criminal charges against Trump just before they voted. Now that is not going to happen.

This said, if the Supreme Court moves quickly once the Appeals Court renders its decision on presidential immunity, an April trial is still possible. Then a verdict could come before the July convention and Trump could still be a convicted felon by convention time. It is unlikely that the first appeal would be finished by the convention, but it could be done in the summer. It's unknowable what the Supreme Court would do at that point. It might decide that making such a key decision in the heat of the campaign would be a PR disaster. But it could also decide that not making a decision would also be a PR disaster. (V)

Key Union Leader Endorses Biden

Last year, Joe Biden showed his support for unions by showing up in the picket line where members of the United Auto Workers were on strike against General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis. Yesterday the UAW returned the favor when its president, Shawn Fain, gave a full-throated endorsement of Biden. He said: "Donald Trump is a scab. Donald Trump is a billionaire, and that's who he represents."

This endorsement is especially important in the swing state of Michigan, where many UAW members live. If Fain constantly reminds them that when they needed help, Biden was with them and Trump was not, it could flip some votes. Also, Fain can try to get union members to help with the ground war, going door-to-door to talk to voters and pass out Biden literature. The UAW has 380,000 members, not all of whom are Democrats. Internal polling shows that about 30% are Democrats, 30% are Republicans, and 40% are swing voters. For this reason, the UAW is often one of the last unions to endorse candidates, but Fain saw Biden's help on the picket line as a good reason to endorse him early on.

The union held a 3-day conference in D.C. to chart its political priorities. Biden spoke there, pointing out that he is probably the most labor-friendly president in American history. His appearance and Trump's lack of an appearance could swing some members. If you want to watch Biden's speech, here it is. He spoke for 21 minutes and most certainly is not the demented old codger the Republicans depict him as. Just watch it and see. Biden is introduced by Fain and comes on stage at 1:12.

Appearances like this could be important. Remember, Trump's base is blue-collar workers. Some of them are proud union members. When they see Biden standing up for an important union, they may be torn between their views on cultural issues and their love for their union. A few percent here and a few percent there could make all the difference. (V)

Senate Republicans Are at Each Other's Throats on the Border

Sen. James Lankford (R-OK), the lead Republican working on the border bill, yesterday said that there will not be a vote on the bill this week, as he and Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) are working on some final sticking points. Nevertheless, he is optimistic that he, Murphy, and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), who is working with them, can hammer out something within a week or so. It's a very sensitive matter and every word counts in bills like this. But Lankford and Murphy are genuinely trying in good faith to get agreement on a bill, albeit for different reasons. Lankford wants to slow down illegal immigration. Murphy wants to defuse the issue for Biden. Sinema... well, who knows what she wants. We certainly don't know. Arizona is a border state, so if she runs for reelection, she might want some of the credit for a bill that slowed down immigration.

At the usual Tuesday Senate Republicans lunch, Lankford got a few questions. Sen. Mike Braun (R-IN) described the lunch as: "Several points of view came out ... at decibel levels a little higher than normal." Lankford said that all the senators wanted to be in the room when he was negotiating with Murphy, but that would never have worked.

Other Republicans had a slightly different take. Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) said: "I think everyone is questioning everyone's strategy on this." Other senators were less constrained and said the lunch was "pretty ugly."

One senator, who prefers to remain anonymous, said that some senators were openly attacking Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to his face, something that hadn't happened before. McConnell's sin is that he wants a border bill now, not in a year when Donald Trump might be president, and when Democrats will vigorously oppose any bill. Some senators don't want to have to vote for a bill that is possibly dead on arrival in the House. Others are scared of incurring Trump's wrath if they vote for the Lankford-Murphy bill. Yet others don't want a bill unless they can get 100% of what they want. Apparently Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Thom Tillis (R-NC) had quite a shouting match. Another source said the scene was like "the House of Commons." We hereby apologize to our British readers. When Republicans say the Senate Republican caucus is like the House of Commons, that is not a compliment to the decorum of the House of Commons.

The bottom line is that McConnell wants to do something now and is willing to settle for whatever Lankford and Murphy can agree on. He knows that Democrats control the Senate, so a bill with 100% of the hard-liners' demands can't pass the Senate. He also knows that even if the Republicans get the trifecta in Jan. 2025, Democrats will filibuster any border bill to death. He thinks a bill might be able to pass now, but understands it will have to have strong Democratic support to do so. He is willing to take half a loaf. Some Republicans want the whole loaf and also a second loaf. (V)

Susan Collins May Not Endorse Trump

When Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) was asked if she could see herself endorsing Donald Trump if he wins the Republican nomination, she said: "I do not at this point." That's not "No." It is more like expressing her concern, something she often does. She is concerned about many things. She supports Nikki Haley and is hopeful that Haley can win in South Carolina.

Collins is a moderate Republican and is not especially Trumpy. She was one of seven Republican senators who voted to convict Trump after his impeachment for attempting a coup on Jan. 6, 2021. She was also one of the three Republican senators who killed Trump's plan to repeal the Affordable Care Act.

Trump hasn't attacked her yet, but there is still plenty of time. He ought to be careful, though, because she is one of the most powerful Republicans in the Senate. She is the ranking member of the Senate Appropriations Committee, the committee that, along with its House counterpart, decides how the government will spend some $6 trillion each year. If Republicans capture the Senate, she will become chair of the Committee. If Trump is elected president and Collins chairs Appropriations, she could stymie some of his pet projects. For example, she might be willing to build a wall on the border, but on the Canadian border, as her home town of Caribou, ME, is only 6 miles from the Canadian border. In other words, when the invasion commences, it will be the first to fall. Collins played a key role in crafting the $1 trillion infrastructure bill. She is a major player and Trump offends her at his own peril. (V)

Will DeSantis Begin a Campaign of Retribution Against People Who Opposed Him?

It's all over for Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL). He thought he was going to out-woke Trump and glide into the Oval Office after crushing the feeble Joe Biden. It didn't quite work out and the Governor is definitely not a happy camper. Neither is the missus. But he has 3 more years as governor and it is going to be a rocky period. Not only is he not going to be president, but due to Florida's term limits law, he is also a lame duck.

On top of this, the members of the state legislature resent him for riding roughshod over them for 5 years and now feel his weakness. However, some of them support Donald Trump and they are worried if DeSantis is going to spend the next 3 years punishing them. He could. He's definitely that kind of guy. One of the state legislators, Randy Fine (R), who flipped his endorsement from DeSantis to Trump, said: "You have a choice: You can accept responsibility or you can blame others. I don't know which he'll choose. I hope he uses it as a learning experience." Rick Wilson, a former Republican consultant, said: "I suspect Ron's learned very few lessons from this campaign. He's gonna come home and kick the dog."

There's a fair bit of reason to think that Wilson is right. In Florida, the governor has a line-item veto on the state budget. Last year, state Sen. Joe Gruters (R) said that DeSantis used his veto to kill projects Gruters supported because Gruters supported Trump. It could be a couple of years of vengeance and retribution. That is very much DeSantis' style.

A first hint came Monday evening when DeSantis let it be known that he didn't want Florida taxpayers to help foot Trump's legal bills. Within an hour of his announcement, the state senator who had sponsored the bill to help Trump withdrew it.

Nikki Fried, who is chair of the Florida Democratic Party, said: "It depends on who he blames for his downfall. If he's frustrated and he's angry, he may come back and try to burn it all down."

In past years, DeSantis had a robust agenda for the legislature. For 2024, he has very little. It is as if he hasn't thought much about governing, since he wasn't planning to spend much time at home in 2024. After his first election, he actually had many priorities that were popular. He wanted to protect the environment and raise teachers' pay. He made deals with the legislature and got bills passed. Only when COVID-19 hit did he start becoming very controversial, banning mask and vaccine mandates and lockdowns. Once he started to think about running for president, he was all about race, gender, guns, and abortion. He also used executive power in ways no previous governor had, firing prosecutors he didn't like and flying migrants from Texas to Massachusetts, with a very brief stopover in Florida to make it look slightly legal. And, of course, there was the war against Disney.

A big problem for state legislators is that Trump really detests DeSantis and many of them are (outwardly) loyal to Trump. This means that when DeSantis wants some bill passed, Trump may intervene and tell the legislators to kill it. Then the question will arise of whom they are more afraid. Both Trump and DeSantis can be nasty and if Trump wants to destroy DeSantis so he can never rise from his ashes, he may order legislators to kill DeSantis' pet bills. It could get messy. (V)

Liz Cheney Calls Elise Stefanik "a Total Crackpot"

Liz Cheney is no fan of Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), who has changed from a moderate from upstate New York to a fire-breathing Trumpist in a very short time. On Ex-Twitter, Cheney wrote: "One day she will have to explain how and why she morphed into a total crackpot. History, and our children, deserve to know." In Cheney's recent book, she wrote that "Stefanik was a reasonable and thoughtful lawmaker who has undergone a dramatic transition into a Trump sycophant."

Actually, the explanation is fairly straightforward: Stefanik doesn't believe a word she is saying but she is the ultimate opportunist. By sounding Trumpier than Trump, she propelled herself from being an unknown backbencher to being #4 in the House Republican hierarchy. Now she sees an opportunity to become Donald Trump's running mate and, win or lose, to become the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028. That's heady stuff.

One problem for Stefanik is that she has left a paper trail behind. Shortly after Jan. 6, 2021, she wrote: "I fully condemn the dangerous violence and destruction that occurred today at the United States Capitol. Americans have a Constitutional right to protest and freedom of speech, but violence in any form is absolutely unacceptable and anti-American." Now she is echoing Trump and calling the people who were convicted of storming the Capitol "hostages." Her spokesperson said: "Liz Cheney's only remaining relevance is that she will soon have to answer for her role in deleting and hiding evidence from the investigation into the sham January 6 Select Committee." Of course, Cheney did no such thing.

If Trump picks Stefanik, she and Cheney are going to exchange quite a few words during the campaign as Cheney obviously does not have a high opinion of her. Don't forget that when Stefanik became the House Republicans' #4, she took the job from the recently ejected Cheney. Of course, we don't know if Trump will pick Stefanik, but he might since she is young (39) and attractive, characteristics that, say, Mike Pompeo, doesn't have. But Stefanik hasn't really been vetted very carefully and if Trump picks her, all the microscopes will be revved up. Her third grade teacher will be deluged with questions. Every guy she dated in college will have a chance to get his 15 minutes of fame. Her hairdresser will get to be on national television. Stefanik graduated from Harvard, so she is presumably much smarter than Sarah Palin, who attended six colleges before finally graduating from the University of Idaho. But Stefanik morphed from a moderate to an extreme Trumpist very fast. She is going to have to explain her extremely rapid metamorphosis over and over, and she could botch it.

Stefanik has already hit the campaign trail supporting Trump. She wants him to see that she can campaign well and can defend him against all attacks. He might well be taken in by her. We'll see. (V)

Ohio Senate Candidates Debate Each Other

One of the most important Senate races is in Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is facing reelection in a state that has become much redder than it was last time he ran, in 2018. But before Republicans can try to knock off Brown, they have to knock off each other. Three serious Republicans are running for the GOP nomination: Secretary of State Frank LaRose, wealthy car dealer Bernie Moreno, and state Sen. Matt Dolan, whose family owns the Cleveland Guardians, and who really likes the U.S. elections schedule, since his Octobers and Novembers are ALWAYS wide open.

On Monday, the three of them participated in a debate televised on WJW Fox 8 in Cleveland. They agree on some things. For example, Ohioans passed a pro-abortion amendment last fall. None of them like it because, well, it allows abortions and they don't want to allow abortions. Also, none of them had a bad word to say about Donald Trump, who has already endorsed Moreno.

Still, to convince voters to pick him and not the others, each candidate needs to differ from the others in some ways. One point of contention is the border. Dolan attacked Moreno for wanting to militarize the federal government and deport children. LaRose, a former Green Beret, also wants the military to defend the border. Dolan said that was irresponsible. LaRose also wants to deport anyone who entered the country illegally during Biden's presidency. People who entered illegally during Trump's presidency are home free.

Moreno attacked LaRose and Dolan for being career politicians. He also said that the indictments against Trump are political and that he would support Trump even if he is convicted. He has conveniently forgotten that he once called the Capitol rioters "morons" and "criminals" but now calls them "political prisoners." Moreno also pointed at Dolan and told viewers: "If you want Liz Cheney to represent you in the United States Senate from Ohio, here's your choice because that's where his position comes from." No wonder Trump has endorsed Moreno.

LaRose attempted to position himself as a middle-class candidate in a fight with two multimillionaires who have no idea what life is like for ordinary people. Both Moreno and Dolan have loaned their campaigns millions of dollars. LaRose said he lives in the terrible Biden economy, like most Ohioans, and knows how they are suffering.

As of the end of Q3 2023, Dolan had $6.7 million cash on hand, Moreno had $5.0 million, and LaRose had a bit less than $1 million. LaRose is going to need some big-time backers to match the two self-funding millionaires. As to polling, there have been 11 polls since last May. LaRose has led in eight of them, probably because, as a statewide elected official, he is better known than the others. However, in three of the four most recent polls, Moreno has taken the lead. Dolan has never led in any poll, but the candidates are close in all of them. In a Dec. poll from McLaughlin, for example, Moreno was at 22%, LaRose was at 18%, and Dolan was at 16%. So basically, anything can happen. A lot depends on: (1) how much Trump inserts himself into the race and (2) how much money the two millionaires toss into their campaigns. Our guess is that LaRose is the strongest candidate against Brown and Moreno is the weakest. (V)

Wisconsin Legislature Sends the Governor Newly Gerrymandered Maps

Yesterday, the Republican-controlled state legislature sent Gov. Tony Evers (D-WI) new state district maps. They were forced to do so because the state Supreme Court ruled that the ones they drew earlier are unconstitutional. Evers has already said he will veto the new maps.

After Evers executes his veto, the liberal-controlled Wisconsin Supreme Court will take over. It is likely to hire a special master to draw new maps. The instructions it gives the special master are extremely important. It could tell the special master to ignore all the existing maps, start from scratch, and draw fair maps that have as many competitive, yet compact, districts as possible. In a state as evenly balanced as Wisconsin, that could be many or even most of them. On the other hand, the special master could be instructed to keep existing districts intact where possible.

Currently, the Republicans hold a 22-11 supermajority in the Wisconsin state Senate, but only a 64-35 ordinary majority in the Assembly. This means they can't override Evers' veto and the Wisconsin Supreme Court will have to figure out what to do. The Court wants the new maps in place for the November elections, so it is likely to move quickly. In November, every seat in the Assembly is up as well as half the seats in the Senate. If the Senate map is redrawn from scratch, the Court will have to figure out which ones are up this year and which ones are not. A separate case regarding Wisconsin's federal district maps is currently winding its way through the courts.(V)

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