(A Small Number of) Iowans Give Trump the Win

Yesterday, Iowa held its ice-cold Republican caucuses. As expected, Donald Trump won in a walk, though on the strength of a rather limited number of votes.

Here are the numbers with >95% of the votes in:

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Delegates
Donald Trump	56,260	51.0%	20
Ron DeSantis	23,420	21.2%	8
Nikki Haley	21,085	19.1%	7
Vivek Ramaswamy	8,449	7.7%	3
Ryan Binkley	774	0.7%	0
Asa Hutchinson	191	0.2%	0
Chris Christie	35	0.0%	0
Other	84	0.1%	0

Beyond Trump's expected, and clear-cut, win, what sticks out the most is the abysmal turnout. In total, 110,298 votes have been counted; with greater than 95% of the vote in, that number isn't going to climb much higher. By contrast, the last time there was a competitive Republican race (2016), 186,874 people showed up to caucus.

What, exactly, does this tell us about Trump's candidacy? Honestly, we don't know. The poor turnout could be due to flagging enthusiasm for him. It could be due to the frigid temperatures. It could be due to the fact that the 2024 race is not competitive. It could be due to there being two NFL playoff games on TV on Monday. Truth be told, it's probably all of these things, in some measure. In any case, Trump's big win is on the strength of votes from 7.8% of Iowa's Republican voters (56,260 of 718,901), and 2.7% of all Iowa voters (56,260 of 2,083,979).

That said, the Iowa results do confirm that Trump is the runaway frontrunner. Where you want to really keep the low turnout in mind is in the case of any and all assessments of Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and Nikki Haley. As you can see, DeSantis finished second, which is better than expected per the last week of polling. But he did it on the strength of 3.2% of Iowa's Republican vote and 1.1% of Iowa's overall vote. If we consider his small, 2,335-vote lead over Haley, he managed to attract 0.32% more of the Republican vote than she did, and 0.11% more of the overall vote.

In other words, this was hardly a miraculous, campaign-affirming result for DeSantis. He and Haley are neck-and-neck, and are both way behind Trump. The Florida Governor is also about to hit a run of states that are much less friendly to him than Iowa is. What we are saying here, in so many words, is that DeSantis should still drop out. A nominal second-place finish, powered by a relatively trivial number of votes, most certainly does not reveal some hidden reservoir of political strength. However, given the kind of man he is (and, frankly, the kind of woman his wife is), he will presumably soldier on for another week or two before bowing to the inevitable.

As for Haley, so much for the Big Mo. Third place is third place and, more importantly, she's clearly not even in the same ballpark as Trump. She should really drop out, too, although in her case, keeping things going for a while longer is more justifiable than for DeSantis. At least she might make a decent showing in New Hampshire. DeSantis, for his part, might not outpoll the out-of-the-race Chris Christie.

Anyhow, there will be much talk about Iowa for the next 24 hours or so, and then everyone will forget the Hawkeye State for the next 4 years. The New Hampshire primary is next Tuesday (January 23), and in between now and then, there are not just one but two Republican candidates' debates (on Thursday and Sunday). Dear God, why? (Z)

Ramaswamy Is Out

Although Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley will continue to delude themselves, by all appearances, the Iowa caucuses did claim one casualty: Vivek Ramaswamy has suspended his "presidential campaign." That's right, our long national nightmare (well, one of them, at least) is over.

Ramaswamy declared on February 21 of last year, and began to get traction a couple of months later. So, we've been watching him reasonably closely for 8-9 months, and... we still have no idea why he was running.

Obviously, he was never going to become president. Not in 2024, not in 2028, not ever. He was generally ultra-MAGA, which suggested he was hoping for a role in the Trump administration, or maybe a cushy media gig at a Trump-friendly media outlet. However, as yesterday's caucuses grew closer, Ramaswamy decided to act like someone who is actually running against Donald Trump, and so to challenge the throne. In the last week or so, Ramaswamy took several potshots at Trump, including the assertion that the former president is "wounded" because of the 91 criminal counts he faces. The natural conclusion, per Ramaswamy, is that people should vote for a non-wounded MAGA candidate... like himself.

In the end, no matter how fawning someone is, and no matter how loyal someone is, Trump will turn on them. But actually daring to criticize him? That just fast-forwards immediately to the day of reckoning. And so, the former president spent the weekend attacking his would-be toady. For example, this posting to his failing boutique social media site:

Vivek started his campaign as a great supporter, “the best President in generations,” etc. Unfortunately, now all he does is disguise his support in the form of deceitful campaign tricks. Very sly, but a vote for Vivek is a vote for the “other side” — don’t get duped by this. Vote for “TRUMP,” don’t waste your vote! Vivek is not MAGA. The Biden Indictments against his Political Opponent will never be allowed in this Country, they are already beginning to fall! MAGA!!!

Trump repeated these basic thoughts several times on the campaign trail.

So, let us review. Ramaswamy is not going to be elected to political office. He's not going to latch on with the Republican Party as some sort of operative, because most Republican officials hate him. He's not going to be a part of a would-be Trump administration. He's not going to be a MAGA celebrity who writes books for that crowd, or works for a MAGA media outlet, or does the rounds on the MAGA convention/speaking circuit. Ramaswamy is now persona non grata in that world. Again, why did he run?

In any case, he's done now, so we can delete "Ramaswamy" from our spell-checker. Very soon, we expect we'll be able to delete "Hutchinson," too. (Z)

What's It Like to Caucus?

We don't have an account from any of the 100,000 or so people who braved the cold last night to vote for their favorite Republican. However, we do have a narrative from B.K. in Hell's Kitchen, NY, about what it was like to be a part of the 2020 Democratic caucuses. We thought readers might like to get a little bit of the flavor of things. So:

I am a life-long New Yorker. But for 34 years, I've taken part in an annual weeklong ride across Iowa that has 10,000 cyclists. No matter how many people I asked, the Iowa Caucus remained incomprehensible to me. So, in 2020, I decided to actually go. One of my close friend's neighbors is a prominent Iowa City politician (Kim Painter, the first openly gay elected official in Iowa). So I had a guest invitation and wore a guest tag.

The caucus was a little different than expected. When you go down the stairs, you enter a carnival-like atmosphere, beginning with a representative from each campaign tackling you as you enter.

The space I was in was a bar in the basement of an organization (I don't remember which). To add to the rowdy atmosphere, everyone was given a coupon for a free beer. It was one large space, in which groups of chairs were placed throughout. This being Iowa City, they knew well in advance that the two largest groups would be supporters of Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). There were no meetings to choose a spokesman. Whoever had been the precinct captain for the candidate's campaign was the leader. There were no speeches made on behalf of the candidates. People who knew who their choice was got their beer and went straight to their group. Others milled around, speaking to different candidate groups' leaders or supporters (and there was an area for undecideds if there were those who wanted to remain so).

Then came the vote. This was done simply by counting raised hands.

After the vote, those whose candidates didn't make it had to decide what to do next. Really and truly, I have rarely seen a group of people as depressed as that of the Biden contingent (he came in a very distant fifth). After they sat around, all mopey, almost all of them just left without choosing another candidate. One of the most upbeat, enthusiastic groups was the Sen. Amy Klobuchar (DFL-MN) group. When they didn't make the threshold, they remained upbeat and almost all of them stayed and found another candidate. Actually, a majority of them immediately went over to join Pete Buttigieg. The most aggressive group was the Yang Gang. They made forceful effort to try to get people to join them. After the second round, everyone was viable. This was followed by some sort of meeting, but almost everyone went home. The only candidate who seemed to be marginalized from the start was Tulsi Gabbard, as her supporter(s) weren't given chairs.

P.S.: As I was flying home, I sat next to a young Fox News researcher. Since I had friends all over Iowa, we had been texting each other delegate counts from a lot of precincts. When the researcher heard this, he asked if I could give him the info, which I did. And which he promptly sent to Fox. To this day, some of my friends are still mad that I helped Fox out.

Thanks, B.K.! (Z)

Trump Legal News: Better Get a Lawyer

There were a couple of bits of news on the Trump legal front, both having to do with lawyers. To start, one of the former president's most high-profile counselors, namely Joe Tacopina, will no longer represent Trump. Tacopina formally withdrew yesterday from both the E. Jean Carroll and Stormy Daniels cases.

Tacopina did not explain his reasoning, leaving us (and everyone else) to speculate. The obvious guess here is that Trump stopped paying Tacopina's fees, and so Tacopina jumped ship. It could be true; Trump is obviously famous for stiffing his lawyers and Tacopina clearly loves money a whole lot. If this is indeed what happened, one can only wonder what it presages for Trump's many and varied legal cases, if he no longer has the money to afford even semi-competent counsel.

All of this said, Tacopina wasn't doing ALL that much legal work for Trump; he was basically Trump's TV attorney. And while it is true that Tacopina really loves money, he also really loves attention and free PR. We are having at least a little difficulty accepting that he would give up all that TV face time so easily, and so we wonder if there's not something else going on here. Maybe Tacopina told Trump to stop running his mouth about Carroll, and Trump told him to shove it, or something like that.

Moving on, and moving about 870 miles southward, Fulton County DA Fani Willis made a speech in church on Sunday. The speech was 35 minutes long, and was primarily on the subject of her relationship with special prosecutor Nathan Wade. That seems an odd subject for church, but what do we know? In any event, Willis spent much time talking about how Wade is a close friend, and how she herself is "flawed" and "imperfect." She lamented how upset she has been over claims that she and Wade had/have a sexual relationship. She also suggested that the people who are making hay out of this are motivated by racism and/or sexism.

What Willis did not do is deny the claims being made about her and Wade. That feels an awful lot like confession by omission to us. Assuming it is true, we remain unconvinced it will affect the legal case against Trump and his alleged co-racketeers. After all, the facts are the facts, regardless of how the prosecuting attorney(s) conducted their private lives. Of course, the criticism is going to focus on why she picked an inexperienced outsider to lead the investigation, rather than an experienced prosecutor on her staff. No one begrudges her the boyfriend of her choice, but she shouldn't have hired him to do a job the local staff could do better. If she had been having an affair with Andrew Weissmann, she might have had a case that he was the best prosecutor in the country, but Nathan Wade fails that test.

In any case, politically this is manna from heaven for the MAGA crowd. The amount of spin, insinuation, carping about corruption, etc. will make the Hunter Biden situation look like a walk in the park. (Z)

Biden Campaign Has a Sizable War Chest

It's time for Q4 fundraising reports. And the Biden campaign decided to get a jump on its various rivals by crowing about the very successful 3 months it just had. Team Joe's take in Q4 was $97 million. Thanks to that money, the campaign says it has $117 million on hand, the most for any campaign ever at this point in the cycle.

What does this mean? Well, sometimes a big fundraising haul can speak to enthusiasm about a candidate or campaign. In this particular case, we are having a hard time reconciling that possibility with the myriad indications that voters are not enthused about Biden-Harris '24, and that many of those voters would like to see one or both of the ticket-mates swapped out. If we absolutely had to account for the big take, we would be more inclined to ascribe it to inflation and to the fact that the campaign has put on a full-court press on the fundraising front. It's gotta be 5-6 e-mails, and 1-2 text messages, every day.

That said, money is money, and the Biden campaign has a lot of it. Given that Donald Trump figures to be rerouting a lot of would-be campaign donations to his defense fund, we have to presume that Biden will have a sizable money lead throughout the campaign. And despite the constant carping from James Carville, David Axelrod and other veteran Democratic operatives, Biden and his team know a little something about how to run a campaign, and how to get maximum bang for the buck. We suspect big chunks of that war chest will go to voter registration, ground game and online campaigning. And hundreds of millions of dollars of spending on those things can certainly make a difference, particularly in an election that figures to be decided by fairly small margins in a handful of states. (Z)

Wow, Trump Was Right... Sort Of

Everyone knows, at this point, that Donald Trump claimed that 10,000+ votes for him had disappeared in Georgia, and that he wanted Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) to "find" them. Of course, Trump had no evidence for his claims, and was really just saying, in code: "Brad, I want you to cook the books."

Despite the obvious chicanery/grasping at straws, Republican officials across the country nonetheless picked up the torch, and performed various bits of political theater aimed at "demonstrating" that Trump was on the mark. Among those folks was Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares (R), who announced the creation of the Election Integrity Unit (EIU) back in September of 2022. The project was wrapped in high-sounding and non-specific language, but it was well-understood that the purpose was to find "missing" Trump ballots (despite the fact that the former president lost the state by nearly half a million votes).

This week, it was announced that the EIU struck gold, in a manner of speaking. It instigated an audit of the ballots in (light-blue) Prince William County, and found that sizable counting errors took place, to the tune of 4,000 improperly counted votes.

You might imagine that Trump would jump right on social media to trumpet this news, but that did not happen. And the reason it did not happen is that the person who was shorted 4,000 votes was... Joe Biden. More specifically, Trump received 2,327 extra votes he was not entitled to, while Biden was deprived of 1,648 votes. So, the President's margin in Virginia was actually a little bigger than previously thought.

According to the folks who run elections in that part of Virginia: "The reporting errors were presumably a consequence of the results tapes not being programmed to a format that was compatible with state reporting requirements. Attempts to correct this issue appear to have created errors." Unless you are familiar with the specific equipment being used, this might as well be in Sanskrit, for all the light it sheds on the problem. It sure would be nice if Congress could adopt national standards for what voting equipment is acceptable, and what voting equipment is not.

In any event, irony is not dead. (Z)

Looking Back at 2023, Part IV: Worst Event

Last week, we had Most Deplorable Person and Most Admirable Person Now, it's time for the worst events of 2023. As you might guess, first place (last place?) wasn't close.

As always, we are going to start with some runners-up:

Gun Un-Control

R.R. in Nashville, TN: Quite a few. Yet, every stinking one of them has to do with a military weapon and school children who will never go home again.

D.E. in Lancaster, PA: My choice for Worst of 2023 is actually, and regrettably, many, many events. So many, in fact, that we have become desensitized to their reporting. Of course, I am referring to 592 mass shootings, which resulted in 725 deaths and 2,419 people injured, that occurred in just one calendar year in the United States. The most notorious for the year was probably the one in Lewiston, Maine, that killed 19, although there are plenty of others that happened in schools, homes and places of work, leisure and worship, that were just as horrifying and senseless. These shootings had a wide spectrum of causes, from racism or hate in some cases, to downright ridiculous reasons, such as a dispute over a game of dominoes.

The fact that this insane number of shootings take place unfettered, not because one party has a particular reverence to the Constitution but rather so gunmakers can continue making their blood money hand over fist, is really disgusting. What makes it more appalling is that this same political party exercises non-stop political theater and gets their panties in a twist about children learning Black history or knowing that gay people exist, but when 90 children, ages from newborn to 17, were shot, all they can do is offer platitudes. You would think the self-proclaimed Party of Life would have their priorities in order.

Legal Matters

J.D. in Reston, VA: Supreme Court strikes down Joe Biden's student loan forgiveness plan.

A.R. in Los Angeles, CA: The district court and the 5th Circuit finding that mifepristone is unauthorized. Thankfully, the Supreme Court stayed the decision, but it has thrown clinics and physicians into disarray. If 20 years after a drug's approval, a court can come along and remove that approval, healthcare will be severely compromised.

R.A. in Chesterfield, MO: The sins of Clarence Thomas, Parts 6, 7, 8, and 9 (sorry, Lou Reed, wherever you are). The sorry spectacle of a Supreme Court justice whining about his salary, then accepting literally hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of "gifts" and "considerations," further eroded what little faith and confidence remained in the "high" court after the debacle of Dobbs.

K.H. in Albuquerque, NM: The selection of U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon for the classified documents trial in Florida was the worst of 2023. With a TFG-appointed judge slow-walking the case, the easiest conviction will likely be delayed until after the election.

Deaths

A.B. in Wendell, NC: Tom Smothers died. Curb thy tongue, knave!

S.E. In Haiku, HI: The death of Jimmy Buffett.

T.C. in Los Angeles, CA: Rosalynn Carter is no longer among us, and Jimmy Carter will soon be gone, too.

Natural Disasters

J.Z. in St. Paul, MN: The worst event of the year was the 7.8 magnitude earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria on February 6. Over 55,000 people died.

M.S. in Washington, DC: The Canadian wildfires. Not because of the ecosystem damage or the smoke, and not even because they were effectively a chemical attack by the 'Nades on the U.S., but rather because they were a harbinger of climate change.

S.K.W. in Wimberley, TX: The Maui fires. There are still 6,000 homeless Hawaiians five months after the fire.

Republic of Artsakh

O.E. in Greenville, SC: I would say that the worst event of 2023 is the invasion and ethnic cleansing of the Republic of Artsakh by Azerbaijan.

If you consider Artsakh to be a part of Armenia, it is an invasion and occupation, and a violation of territorial integrity. If you consider it an independent state (as I do), it is a blow to self-determination.

In a just world, this would be roundly condemned, and actions would be taken. While many nations condemned Azerbaijan's actions, none have taken action. Russia lost six peacekeepers, yet refused to intervene. Ukraine and Israel are allies of Azerbaijan, and Israel supplies major portions of Azerbaijan's military. While the U.S. condemned the invasion, it has not cut off any aid, and even held a military exercise with Azerbaijan during the invasion. No Western nation has sanctioned Azerbaijan.

Any claims by nations of a respect for international law are scotched by permitting this to happen. Any talk of a "rules-based international order" that permits this shows that the only recognized rule is might makes right. I am one of the few who takes foreign policy and peace seriously. I will certainly remember this and vote accordingly.

And now, the top five:

5. Donald Trump

G.W. in Oxnard, CA: The worst political event in 2023 was Donald Trump declaring as a candidate for president of the United States. That was the nexus event connected to just about every negative political consequence that has brought us to where we are today. There is no way to know if we would be better or worse off politically now if that event had not happened, but our politics are awful and that event has colored every political event that followed.

H.R.L. in Carmichael, CA: I believe the worst thing that happened in 2023 was the capture of the Republican Party by Trump and his MAGA followers. It is difficult, if not impossible, to maintain a democratic form of government when one of the two major political parties no longer accepts the peaceful transfer of power. I fear our democracy faces real jeopardy.

M.A. in Park Ridge, IL: Donald Trump's heart kept beating.

4. House Shenanigans

M.A. in Tucson, AZ: The end of Kevin McCarthy (good riddance) and the beginning of the Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) era in the House. I am extremely worried about the separation of church and state. Johnson is going to constantly push the limits of where and when religion is allowed in government, schools and everyday life. That and the continuation of getting NOTHING constructive done is very, very bad for our country.

C.W. in Visalia, CA: The worst thing that happened in 2023 was the failure of House Republicans to govern independently of Donald Trump. Kevin McCarthy's failure to unify his party led to fears of government shutdowns at home and uncertainty for our allies abroad. This institutional chaos has brought Mike Johnson, a Christian Nationalist with little leadership experience in the House, to the speakership. This is the man that we must rely on to fund our government, arm Ukraine and Israel, support Taiwan, and deal with climate change and its associated disasters. His base also supports the impeachment of President Biden and Trump's call for revenge against non-MAGA Americans.

P.K. in Marceline, MO: The worst was the failure of the House of Representatives to finally eschew Trump and take the party back. Instead, they ended up with a right-wing porn-addicted speaker nut who shames other people's sexuality and values, tries to distract voters by making Hunter Biden a national issue, and foolishly wastes the government's time in the impeachment process.

3. Ukraine

M.R. in Rochester, NY: The most troubling event of 2024 is the ongoing war in Ukraine and the brutality displayed by Russia and Vladimir Putin. This is exacerbated by the significant loss of life on both sides, primarily attributed to Putin's use of human wave tactics. Additionally, the Republicans' failure to fulfill their duty to support fellow democracies is disheartening. Their inexplicable affinity for Vladimir Putin remains one of the perplexing "mysteries" of our time.

E.K. in Portland, OR: The ongoing war in Ukraine and the United States' inability to give Ukraine what it needs to decisively win, as opposed to just keeping Russia from rolling west. It is especially terrible how the party of Ronald Reagan is now helping Russia, of all countries, in its quest to rebuild its colonial empire and to commit genocide in Ukraine. Thankfully, Europe is increasingly stepping up and helping Ukraine, although Russia could be decisively defeated if the United States did its part.

D.G. in Atlanta, GA: Republicans taking a political position against Ukraine and cutting off funding, making it clear to the entire world that the U.S. cannot be relied upon. This could have massive negative ramifications on U.S. foreign policy and our standing in the world for decades to come. We should embrace our position as leaders of the free world and act the part. We should embrace being a driving force in multi-national organizations such as the UN, G7, World Bank, IMF, etc., which we were instrumental in setting up in the first place as they allow us to "control" so much of what happens in the world. If we revert to isolationism, someone else (China/Russia) will fill the vacuum, to our ultimate detriment.

2. Global Warming

J.P. in Horsham, PA: The worldwide manifestations of climate change. 2023 was the hottest year on record and we have no reason to think 2024 will be any better. The smoke from the Canadian wildfires was seen and felt as far south as Virginia. I'm not saying it could have been completely prevented but with one American political party continuing to deny the fact that it is a problem, we've been completely unable to find any real solutions.

S.S. in West Hollywood, CA: 2023 was the hottest year ever recorded and can only be described as the year most of the world's scientists really began freaking out over climate change. Another year and no meaningful action was taken that will change where we're heading. I can't even wrap my head around all the horrific things that are coming. No place is safe. Not to mention all the unknowns and unknown unknowns. We are in a mass extinction event, and collectively, the world is not paying attention. Instead, we're still electing people who don't make it a priority or worse, actively work to contribute to the disinformation campaign. It's going to be bad, really bad.

P.B. in Gainesville, FL: Not enough action on reducing CO2 emissions, i.e. the accelerating calamity of climate change. Why? Because despite all the other horrible things that happened around the world in 2023, these things are in principle reversible. Once past a few key tipping points, which are closer than people think, climate change will be irreversible, and the planet will be near-uninhabitable in 100 years, along with catastrophic species loss and 90% of humanity gone.

1. Israel-Hamas

S.C. in Mountain View, CA: This is probably due to recency bias, but the October 7th Hamas attacks on Israel. (My first thought that day when I heard the news was "No good is going to come of this.") Not only did it provoke an over-reaction from Israel (they needed to react, but not over-react), it could widen (perhaps already is beginning to widen) into a larger Middle East conflict. Plus, people unhappy with Biden's handling of the crisis could cost the Democrats the White House, resulting in a second Trump Presidency and all the chaos that would entail.

B.C. in Phoenix, AZ: The worst thing of 2023 was the attack on Israel by Hamas on October 7th. First of all, because of the innocent people who were killed, taken hostage, tortured and who have died while in the clutches of Hamas.

Secondly, because it gave license to the reprehensible Bibi Netanyahu to rain terror and death from the skies on innocent people, using weapons provided by the U.S.

Lastly, because it allowed dirtbag Putin, and his brain-dead political fans here in the United States, to distract the world from Ukraine's fight to remain an independent country.

M.S. in Washington, DC: The Hamas attack on Israel. The primary effect of 1,000+ civilians killed horrifically was bad enough, but the secondary effect of tens of thousands killed in the response and the tertiary effect of increased antisemitism and anti-Muslim sentiment both in Israel and around the world elevates this to the worst event of the year.

A.C. in Aachen, Germany: The worst thing to happen in 2023: The moment Joe Biden decided to give Netanyahu and his right-wing government a free pass to do what they have been doing since the events of October 7th. Everyone knows, and it is repeatedly confirmed by Israeli officials, that without American political support, without American financial support, without American military support, without American military equipment, Israel would not be able to wage war in Gaza.

The reason: Does this actually have to be explained? What Israel is doing in Gaza has long been beyond measure. This no longer has anything to do with national defense, fighting Hamas, or even rescuing hostages. It's about collective punishment, humiliation and ethnic cleansing. What is happening there violates international law and is deeply inhumane. It also poses the risk of escalation beyond national borders, which could lead the world into World War III.

Biden knows this and he not only tolerates it, he supports it. He does not have the power to end this conflict, but he could at least steer it in a better direction. To do this, he would have to have the courage to stand against Israel on some points. But this is not the case; he has not. If not reelected, this might be the tipping point.

Thanks, as always, to everyone who sent in votes. Next up is the best event of 2023; if you'd like to comment, there is still time. Send a message to comments@electoral-vote.com with subject line "Best Event." (V & Z)

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