Trump Legal News: Will Your Lawyer Talk to God?

Maybe Trump's lawyers will manage to get the attention of the man upstairs, since they are throwing up Hail Marys all over the place.

First, there is New York, where, as expected, Trump has appealed the half-billion in verdicts against him. He was allowed to appeal right now, even without putting the funds (plus interest) in escrow. However, he has 30 days—er, now it's 29—to come up with the money, or New York AG Letitia James is allowed to start selling his assets.

Also in New York, Trump's lawyers made a 47-page filing in the former president's hush money case. It argues that Michael Cohen (i.e., the guy who actually handled the transactions) and Stormy Daniels (one of the two people who received the money) should not be allowed to take the stand because their testimony will be "false" and "salacious." So, Judge Juan Merchan is being asked to gut the prosecution's case preemptively. Good luck with that, Team Trump.

Heading south to Georgia, Trump's lawyers also made a filing there yesterday. This one claims that the defense has cell phone records that prove that Fulton County DA Fani Willis and former paramour Nathan Wade commenced a relationship at an earlier date than what they told the court. We are very skeptical of this claim, because it is hard-to-impossible to prove that, during those calls, the couple was whispering sweet nothings to one another, as opposed to talking business. Even if the frequency and length of the calls makes it seem like the calls were personal (which is the argument made by Trump's lawyers), "how things seem" is not proof. Besides, Willis can certainly argue that the case and RICO law are so complicated, that long calls were necessary.

And finally, further south still, the expected decision from Aileen Cannon (whether she will reverse a pretty bad decision or not) has not come down because Trump's lawyers buried her in motions on Friday—seven different ones. On the surface, what's going on is that Team Trump is grasping at every straw to get the documents case dismissed (for example, arguing, yet again, "presidential immunity"). What's really going on, however, is that Trump and his attorneys are trying to game the calendar. They want to dump enough stuff on Cannon that she postpones until the summer. In turn, they hope that: (1) will make it necessary for Tanya Chutkan to delay the Washington, DC, case until 2025; and (2) that Cannon will play ball and "discover," sometime in July or August, that a summer trial won't be possible after all, and she'll have to delay to 2025, as well.

In short, $50 million in legal fees (and counting) will buy you an awful lot of stuff from your lawyers' bags of tricks. Will some of the tricks work? Probably so. Will they all work? Trump is certainly hoping they will. (Z)

The Republicans Are The Nazis' Party

It is a sign of how very much the country has become acclimated to the extremes of the Donald Trump-led Republican Party that a bunch of Nazis showed up to this weekend's CPAC conference, and it barely got any attention.

Nobody who was present this weekend could possibly have been unaware of the Nazi presence. They showed up at panel discussions to share their views on "race science" and how Jews are secretly behind everything. They goose-stepped around in the lobby of the hotel where the conference was held, greeting each other with "Sieg Heil." They made very liberal (conservative?) use of the n-word. Unless there is a revival of The Producers that we are not aware of, these folks were dyed-in-the-wool Hitler fans.

Meanwhile, it is not like the conference was only attended by fringy elements of the GOP. Donald Trump spoke there, as did a whole bunch of wannabe running mates, along with Sens. J.D. Vance (R-OH) and Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) and Jim Jordan (R-OH), and a host of other high-profile Republicans. Not one of them raised a word of objection to the Nazis in their midst, as far as we can discover. CPAC organizers denied yesterday that any Nazis were present, but... there's video.

We wish we had something useful or insightful to say, but we really don't. It's absolutely reprehensible that these folks were not tossed out by the scruff of their necks, and anyone who participated in the conference this weekend should be ashamed of themselves for not denouncing the Nazis' presence. Of course, it's not like this is the first time the folks listed above have enabled this sort of behavior. (Z)

Today in Republican Shenanigans

It's no secret that sizable numbers of Republican officeholders don't much care about governing. Actually, some of them don't care about governing and some of them just realize that governing is not especially possible for the GOP these days, meaning that all that's left is silly political theater. And yesterday, there was plenty of that.

We'll start in California, where Republican activists, knowing full well they cannot win an actual gubernatorial election, are trying once again to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA). His crimes are that he has not balanced the California budget (a common state of affairs) and that he is... making noises about running for president in 2028. If we think of recall as being a form of impeachment, well, these hardly seem offenses worthy of removal. In particular, if presidential aspirations were that sort of offense, half the governors in the country would be thrown out on their ear. In any case, there is zero chance this will work, while there is a 100% chance it will produce very bad PR for the California GOP, and possibly the national GOP. One thing Newsom could do to end this nonsense once and for all is ask the state legislature to pass a law stating that whenever the office of governor is vacant (for example, after a successful recall election), the lieutenant governor becomes governor. Then all a recall would do is replace one Democrat with a different Democrat. That is far less attractive to Republicans.

And now, let's shift to Washington, DC. There, Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO) has somehow decided that Joe Biden is not impeachable, but that the President IS too mentally infirm to continue as president. Consequently, Buck has introduced a resolution calling on Biden's cabinet to invoke the Twenty-Fifth Amendment and to remove him from the presidency. Needless to say, there is zero chance that the Cabinet will do that. And if they do decide such a move is warranted, they do not require any input from Republicans in Congress. Like so many constitutional amendments, the Twenty-Fifth does not require enabling legislation.

And then there are Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA) and Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA). They have both shared their view that Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) should withdraw the invitation to deliver the State of the Union Address until the President has "addressed" the situation at the southern border. Undoubtedly, since it was a grand total of 2 weeks ago, readers of this site recall that the lack of legislation on the border is the doing of... Perry, Johnson and the House Republican Conference. And if Johnson yanks the SOTU invitation, all Biden will do is toddle across the Capitol, and deliver the address in the Senate. Let us not forget that the President has a constitutional responsibility to do this particular job.

And finally, there's the most consequential shenanigans of them all. The country is once again just days from shutting down (four days, to be precise). Here is a list of people and entities who made clear yesterday that they do not want a shutdown and that they are willing to roll up their sleeves and work hard to prevent one:

• Joe Biden
• Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and his caucus
• Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and numerous members of his conference
• House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and his caucus

Perhaps you will notice who is conspicuously missing from the list. And you will undoubtedly need your fainting couch once we tell you that it's the Freedom Caucus that is the stumbling block. Note that Johnson actually has put forward a draft spending bill, but it's full of extreme stuff that isn't going to get through the Senate, or the White House. "We get everything we want" is not how governing works, and so one cannot take the Johnson bill seriously. Oh, and the House is in recess until Thursday, so there's little time for sausage-making.

Maybe, one day, the 45% of the country that votes Republican will grow weary of a party that cannot and will not govern, and that tolerates Nazis in its ranks (see above). But that day is not today, and it's not tomorrow, either. (Z)

Ronna Romney McDaniel Sticks to the Plan...

Now that the South Carolina GOP primary is in the rearview mirror, RNC Chair Ronna Romney McDaniel has done as she promised and resigned her post. The Party has some sort of retreat/training event next weekend, and managing that will be her last official duty before exiting stage right.

At nearly the same time that McDaniel made it official, North Carolina GOP Chair Michael Whatley formally announced that he will be a candidate to succeed her. Since Donald Trump wants Whatley, and since what Trump wants, Trump gets, Whatley will be your next GOP Chair. There has to be an election, but it's a mere formality. He will be approved just in time to take the reins from McDaniel on March 8.

Between McDaniel's resignation and the looming retirement of Uncle Mitt in January of next year, the Romneys will soon have no influence over the Republican Party. Which, let's be honest, is not much of a change from where things stand right now. (Z)

...And So Does the New York Legislature

New York Democrats are very much hoping to have new, much more gerrymandered maps in place for this year's elections. If the legislature does not grant itself more time (which it certainly could do), then they really need to get the maps in place prior to the state's April 4 filing deadline. And before that, the legislature has to reject the maps put together by the state's bipartisan redistricting commission.

Yesterday, the legislature took care of the latter portion of that, refusing to accept the redistricting commission's proposed maps. The vote was 99-47 in the state Assembly and 40-17 in the state Senate. New York Republicans say that their Democratic colleagues don't want fair maps, which is true. New York Democrats say that the commission's maps are supported by the most right-wing Republicans in the state, which is also true, if only because those right-wing Republicans know this is the best they are going to get.

Presumably, the Democrats already have maps locked and loaded and ready to go. We would also guess they will drag their feet a bit before releasing them, so that any court challenges would come too late for this cycle. It's dirty pool, but that's the way the game is played these days. After all, North Carolina Republicans are doing exactly the same thing to favor their team. (Z)

Biden Sits for an Interview with Seth Meyers

Joe Biden did not sit for a Super Bowl interview, but he did stop by Late Night with Seth Meyers last night for a sit-down that lasted roughly 15 minutes.

We would like to be able to share the video, but the show has not posted it to YouTube, to NBC.com or to social media yet. However, we were able to watch it during the regular broadcast of the show. Biden participated in a couple of comedic bits, including a visit to a local ice cream parlor with the host (the President had mint chip, Meyers had honeycomb). Biden's answers to the various questions put before him were on point, and his comic timing was also pretty sharp.

Obviously, this isn't quite the same as a Super Bowl interview, since the Super Bowl interview would have been roughly twice as long, and would have been a hard news interview with someone like Lester Holt, as opposed to an interview with an entertainer like Meyers. That said, the host did not limit himself only to softballs, and asked questions about Biden's age, about Donald Trump and about Israel. And the President took the opportunity to make a little news, announcing that he expects a ceasefire to be agreed to next week.

There are a couple of reasons Biden accepted this interview. First, he was in New York anyhow for a fundraiser. Second, last night was a celebration of the 10th anniversary of the show, and Biden was the very first guest on the very first episode. That, in fact, was one of the bits. Comedian and actor Amy Poehler was also on the first show, and was also on last night, and when Meyers lamented that he couldn't get Biden for the anniversary show, Poehler said she could pull it off, and brought Biden out.

Will this put a stop to talk that Biden is afraid to go before the cameras? Probably not, but we mention the interview, just in case. (Z)

Another Week, Another Useless Poll

Last week, we offered an unflattering assessment of the latest poll from Siena. We really didn't think we'd be writing another piece like that for at least a month or two, because most polls are not so crummy. But we'll be damned if the latest from Harvard CAPS/Harris didn't prove us wrong.

The topline number, which got a lot of attention of course, is that Donald Trump leads Joe Biden by 6 points right now, 48% to 42%. And when the pollster added the third-party candidates, Trump's lead grows to 8 points, 44% to 36%. That's pretty far out of line with most other polls of the presidential contest, excepting those from Rasmussen. So, while the finding is at least within the realm of possibility, you have to be at least a little leery.

Where things really fall apart, however, is Harvard CAPS/Harris' findings when it comes to approval. They asked about 22 different people, and here are their findings, ordered from highest to lowest approval:

Person	Approve	Disapprove	Net Approval
Donald Trump	50%	47%	3%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	48%	31%	17%
Elon Musk	47%	37%	11%
Hillary Clinton	43%	49%	-6%
Joe Biden	43%	54%	-11%
Nikki Haley	42%	38%	5%
Kamala Harris	42%	51%	-9%
Ron DeSantis	41%	41%	-1%
Vivek Ramaswamy	35%	29%	5%
Chuck Schumer	33%	38%	-6%
Benjamin Netanyahu	31%	30%	1%
Mike Johnson	29%	28%	1%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	29%	42%	-12%
Gavin Newsom	29%	36%	-7%
Joe Manchin	25%	32%	-7%
Antony Blinken	24%	29%	-5%
Hunter Biden	23%	57%	-34%
Cornel West	20%	24%	-4%
Ilhan Omar	17%	36%	-19%
Jill Stein	17%	27%	-10%
Rashida Tlaib	15%	32%	-18%
Mahmoud Abbas	12%	27%	-15%

When a poll produces one or two numbers that are a little wacky, well, that isn't necessarily disqualifying. For example, Joe Biden's net approval is unexpectedly low here, but... maybe. The problem is that this chart is absolutely FULL of stuff that just defies belief. Among the problems:

• We simply do not believe that Donald Trump, a man who hasn't been above water since 2017, is suddenly at 50% approval.
  
  
• We simply do not believe that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is the most popular politician in America.
  
  
• We simply do not believe that Benjamin Netanyahu not only has a positive approval rating, but that he's more popular than every Democrat in the poll.
  
  
• We simply do not believe that there are NO Democrats who are above water.
  
  
• We simply do not believe that Elon Musk is one of the most popular figures in America.
  
  
• We simply do not believe that Vivek Ramaswamy is above water, particularly by five points.
  
  
• We simply do not believe that Reps. Ilhan Omar (DFL-MN) and Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) are less popular than Mahmoud Abbas.

At best, there is something wrong with the model of the electorate that Harvard CAPS is using, with the result that the results are skewing rightward.

At worst, the people running the Harvard CAPS poll are putting their thumb on the scale. And, truth be told, this is what we think is really going on. Looking at the table above, consider these two questions. First, why ask about controversial Democratic members of the House (e.g., Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-NY; Omar; Tlaib) but NOT about controversial Republican members (e.g., Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-GA; Lauren Boebert, R-CO, etc.)? Second, and more instructive, what can possibly be the justification for asking about Hunter Biden's approval rating? Since he is not an officeholder, we can only think of one answer to that: to give right-wing media members and politicians a talking point.

So, who exactly is running this polling house? The answer is Mark Penn. If we told you, correctly, that he worked as a pollster and strategist for Hillary Clinton's 2008 campaign, you might conclude we're nuts to think he's manipulating his results to favor Republicans. But what if we told you, also correctly, that since then he's become a Trumper, working as a consultant to Trump's campaigns, speaking out loudly against the two impeachments, and claiming that the former president is being targeted by the deep state? Maybe that's not a person who should be overseeing a "nonpartisan" polling operation.

We've actually expressed skepticism about Harvard CAPS/Harris' results previously. Now, they're on the list with Trafalgar, Rasmussen, ARG, and Fabrizio, Lee & Associates as pollsters whose numbers have to be taken with multiple grains of salt, at least until we're given reason to think otherwise. (Z)

Looking Forward to 2024, Part III: Reader Predictions, Joe Biden Edition

We had two predictions pieces in January:

• Looking Forward to 2024, Part I: Pundit Predictions
• Looking Forward to 2024, Part II: Our Predictions

It took us a good, long time to go through the readers' predictions, but we've done it now. So, we shall reveal the remaining predictions in the next couple of weeks, starting with 10 predictions about Joe Biden today. As a reminder, we've asked a panel to judge the predictions; the less likely they collectively think a prediction is to come to pass, the more bonus points it's worth. A prediction that they deem 100% likely to happen (i.e., guaranteed) will get 0 bonus points if and when it comes to pass. A prediction they deem 0% likely to happen (i.e., absolutely impossible) will get 100 bonus points if and when it comes to pass. And so forth.

With that out of the way, here are the predictions for Biden:

1. K.F.S. in Lorton, VA: Pete Buttigieg will play a large role in campaigning for Joe Biden's reelection, portending a promotion in the cabinet to State, Defense, CIA or DNI. (Potential Bonus Points: 50)
   
   
2. S.H. in Broken Arrow, OK: Biden will get rough with Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) in some manner, either by federalizing the State's National Guard/Air National Guard or finding some other way to slap the Texas Governor in the mouth politically and/or financially. (Potential Bonus Points: 52)
   
   
3. B.H. in Randolph, NJ: Biden will decide to withdraw from the election, having come to the decision that he cannot win because of the discord in the Democratic Party arising from the Mideast war. (Potential Bonus Points: 92)
   
   
4. R.M. in Binghamton, NY: George W. Bush will endorse Biden for president. (Potential Bonus Points: 69)
   
   
5. C.O. in East Lansing, MI: Biden will continue to improve the U.S.'s relationship with China, making agreements that anger the progressive wing of his party, but ultimately getting the support of most business leaders. His crowning achievement will be getting China to distance itself from Russia, resulting in Russia finally ending the war in Ukraine. (Potential Bonus Points: 70)
   
   
6. G.S. in New Plymouth, Taranaki, New Zealand: Biden will make at least three gaffes that give rise to further questions about his age and mental state, but there will be little impact on the polls overall. (Potential Bonus Points: 23)
   
   
7. P.H. in Mayo, FL: Biden will fill a surprise sudden vacancy on the Supreme Court before the year is out. (Potential Bonus Points: 64)
   
   
8. T.B. in Leon County, FL: Biden will win reelection with a popular vote margin in excess of 9.5% over the Republican candidate(s) (something like 52%-42%). (Potential Bonus Points: 53)
   
   
9. A.G. in Scranton, PA: Taylor Swift will appear at the Democratic National Convention, both to perform and to generate a few million young voters for the eventual Democratic presidential nominee—who, suffice it to say, is about as exciting to her fan base as a bowl of unflavored ice milk (Maude Flanders' preferred flavor) is to anyone who enjoys a bowl of real mint chocolate chip ice cream. (Potential Bonus Points: 55)
   
   
10. O.B. in Santa Monica, CA: Biden's State of the Union will be very well received, and at least two New York Times columnists will describe it as just the thing he needed in order to reboot his campaign. (Potential Bonus Points: 29)

Note that it really is just a coincidence that we're running the mint-chip-ice-cream prediction on the same day Biden ordered and ate mint chip ice cream on national TV. We compiled the predictions roughly 24 hours before he appeared on Late Night with Seth Meyers.

Anyhow, if the readers hit the bullseye 10 times, then they'll earn 1,557 points for Biden predictions. Tomorrow, it will be reader predictions for Donald Trump. (Z)

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