Trump Legal News: Desperado

Yesterday, we got a reminder of why Donald Trump is so bold when it comes to flouting the law: He always finds an out. One is reminded of the old saying: fortune favors fools, drunkards, and wayward children. We'll leave it to readers to decide which group the former president is in.

Mind you, Trump did get some adverse news yesterday. And it is also the case that the very, very good news that he got is not necessarily the end of the story. Nonetheless, at the start of the day today, he was far, far closer to dodging a bullet in Georgia than he was at the start of the day yesterday, thanks to what happened during the hearing into whether or not Fulton County DA Fani Willis can continue to prosecute Trump's case.

There are, we think, three things worth knowing about what happened in court yesterday:

1. Robin Bryant-Yeartie, one of the first witnesses to take the stand, dropped something of a bombshell during her testimony. She claimed that Willis commenced a romantic relationship with Nathan Wade well before the start of the Trump investigation. If that is true, it would be a very, very big problem, because it would mean that Willis lied to the court (after already having been caught trying to hide the relationship). Both Wade and Willis pushed back at this, and it is the case that Bryant-Yeartie has no proof of her claims, that she could not recall specific details when asked about her claims, and that Wade in particular made the argument that he could not possibly have been in a relationship with Willis that long ago, as his health would not have allowed it. Also, while everyone agrees that Willis and Bryant-Yeartie were once friends and co-workers, Willis ultimately had to dismiss Bryant-Yeartie, so there is a potential axe to grind there.
   
   
2. Neither Wade nor Willis denies that, as part of their romantic relationship, they took trips and enjoyed other luxuries that were charged to Wade. Since Wade was drawing significant money for his work with the Fulton County DA's office, that sorta means that Willis was benefiting from the public monies she was spending. Both Willis and Wade insist that they went Dutch, and she repaid all of the costs for her portions of the trips, etc. However, they also say the payments were in cash, which means there's no record.
   
   
3. When Willis took the stand, she was certainly... passionate about defending herself. To many observers, however, she came off as more than a little unhinged.

In short, a prosecution like this really needs to be bulletproof in terms of appearances. But now, the waters are very muddy. Judge Scott McAfee did not tip his hand yesterday, and he's already said he'll take the weekend, at very least, to make a decision. It really could go either way, largely depending on how credible the Judge found Bryant-Yeartie to be.

Should Willis be disqualified, her whole office is disqualified right alongside her. That would leave it up to Pete Skandalakis—the director of the Prosecuting Attorneys' Council of Georgia—to select another prosecutor to take the case. Skandalakis is a Republican, but one with a reputation for being evenhanded. He's also serving in a state where public officials tend to be not so Trumpy. On the other hand, he's dragged his feet in selecting a prosecutor to deal with ANOTHER election interference case Willis was removed from (due to conflicts of interest), that of Georgia Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (R). So, should Willis be removed, this could go either way, as well. Skandalakis might pick a replacement with all due haste, or he might sit on it until it goes away.

That, then, is the good news for Trump. Now the bad: Judge Juan Merchan did not buy the former president's motion to dismiss the New York hush-money case, and was also unwilling to delay. So, the weakest of the four criminal cases, and the one that will likely be easiest for Trump to spin, will be the first to go to trial. It's going to commence March 25, as originally planned, and it won't take long. So, he could be a convicted felon by sometime in April, or he could be someone who "beat the rap." Whether either outcome moves the needle with persuadable voters is impossible to predict.

And finally, one other fairly small bit of adverse news for Trump. Special Counsel Jack Smith and his team have already made their filing in response to the presidential immunity case, as demanded by Chief Justice John Roberts. It hit the Supremes' desks 6 days prior to the deadline set by Roberts, so that could mean that a decision will come a bit sooner than would otherwise have been the case. We suppose it depends on whether or not Clarence Thomas is currently away on a luxury vacation funded by Harlan Crow. (Z)

Trump Presidency v2.0: Kushner Will Be Too Busy Working for His Arabian Mate

Former First Son-in-Law Jared Kushner appeared at a politics-centered conference in Florida yesterday, and there he told reporters that he's done with politics, and he wants to focus on his equity firm "at this phase" of his life. He also emphasized his commitment to "my investors, to my firm, to my employees, to my partners, and that's what I'm planning to do."

Kushner has only one investor who matters, and that is the Saudi Arabian royal family, which is led by his good buddy Mohammed bin Salman. There is little question that MbS and his family tossed Kushner a $2 billion bone because they wanted to reserve a big chunk of influence in a potential second Trump administration. So, the Saudi royals will undoubtedly be disappointed to hear that Kushner and his wife Ivanka Trump are not planning a return to Washington.

As to the Kushners, they're never going to explain openly why they're holding dad at arm's length, but there are really only two conceivable explanations. The first is that they really, really, really love money, and there's way more of it available to servants of the Kingdom of Saud than there is to servants of Uncle Sam. The second is that they don't want to be anywhere in the same ZIP code the next time indictable offenses are committed, as they surely will be if Donald Trump returns to the White House. Jared is particularly sensitive to this, since his father did some time in the pokey. So, the younger Kushner has undoubtedly gotten an earful or two about how unpleasant it is.

The unavailability of his son-in-law, should there be a second Trump presidency, means that The Donald will simply have to find someone else to reorganize the federal government, solve the opioid crisis and bring peace to the Middle East. Shouldn't be too hard to find someone capable of handling all three. After all, Kushner did such a great job when those things were part of HIS portfolio. (Z)

RNC News: So That's Why McDaniel Is Going to Resign

When it became clear that RNC Chair Ronna Romney McDaniel's days were numbered, and that Donald Trump was going to force a change, we presumed it was one or both of the usual Trumpy dynamics: (1) He lost interest in a longtime loyal lackey, or (2) He was looking for a scapegoat for problems that he himself caused.

Those things may also be a part of it, but RNC insiders are not so subtly sharing what appears to be the main point of contention: Trump wants to raid the RNC's coffers to help pay his legal bills, and McDaniel—gasp!—wants to use that money to, you know, help win elections. She somehow has the strange idea that is in her job description.

The RNC members who are talking about this particular subject are in agreement with McDaniel, and are trying to gently signal to Trump that this is not something they are on board with, and that he should drop his piggy-bank-robbing plans if he wants to seat the RNC chair of his choosing. This sort of pushback is adorable, but it also doesn't amount to much. Trump is going to get the chair he wants. And if he wants to help himself to the RNC's money—not that there's much of it—he's going to get that, too. Sorry, RNC members!

Also, since we are on the subject, it would appear that the Michigan GOP's long national nightmare is over, as the RNC has formally recognized Pete Hoekstra as the state chair, meaning that Kristina Karamo is officially out. Karamo is claiming that this is fake news and fraud and yadda, yadda, yadda, but she's pretty much just shouting into the void at this point, especially since even Trump has said Hoekstra's the guy. Thus ends a soap opera that was quite a show while it lasted. (Z)

GOP Conference News: Rosendale Won't Seek a Promotion, After All

Senate Majority Leader Mitch "Candidate Quality" McConnell (R-KY) surely had a smile on his face on Friday, as he got some good news out of Montana. Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT), who just announced a bid for the state's U.S. Senate seat last week, changed his mind and decided that he won't run after all.

Rosendale's explanation for the rapid change of course seems entirely plausible to us: Because of the late start, he was well behind his opponent Tim Sheehy in fundraising. Then, Donald Trump decided to endorse Sheehy, either because Trump thinks Sheehy is more likely to win, or because Trump has some lingering resentment of Rosendale, or both. In any case, the Representative and his advisers concluded that in this case, two strikes, and you're out. He might have overcome the lack of money, or the lack of a Trump endorsement, but not both. Rosendale has not yet decided if he'll run for reelection to his seat in the House.

Sheehy is not a flawless candidate, by any means, as he's got baggage (at least some of which is carpetbags). However, without Rosendale in the race, he won't have to tack right and he won't have to waste money in the primaries. So, Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) is going to have all he can handle as he tries to keep his job. (Z)

Foreign Affairs, Part I: Putin's Gambit(s)

It's a presidential election year, which means it's time for Vladimir Putin to shake off the rust, get out his old KGB playbook, and muck around in U.S. politics.

The bigger news, which broke earlier this week, is that the Russians triggered some sort of national security crisis. Yesterday, it was revealed exactly what the problem is: The Russkies are at work on a space-focused nuclear weapon, which would ostensibly be used for shooting down satellites. This was leaked by Rep. Mike Turner (R-OH), chair of the House Intelligence Committee, against the wishes of the national security establishment.

Turner's agenda here is not clear. Is he trying to light a fire under his colleagues in terms of sending money to Ukraine? Is he trying to make Joe Biden look weak? Maybe both? Certainly, undermining Biden is a significant element of Putin's thinking here. During the Cold War, building big and scary nukes was a primary form of propaganda the Russians used to undermine U.S. presidents (U.S. presidents pulled the same maneuver against Soviet premiers, of course).

Meanwhile, Putin had a chat yesterday with one of the many "journalists" who are in his pocket, and said that between Biden and Donald Trump, Biden would be better for Russia "because he is a more experienced person, he is predictable, he is a politician of an old formation." Anyone who actually believes that the Russian President would prefer Biden to Trump, raise your hand. Yeah, us either. A little Обратнаяпсихология (reverse psychology) is one of the oldest plays in the aforementioned KGB playbook. And in case you are thinking that, just maybe, Putin was suffering from an attack of the truth, he also said in the same interview that he was disappointed in the interview he did with Tucker Carlson because Carlson did not ask tough enough questions. Uh, huh. Someone who actually wants tough questions does not make a habit of speaking only to state-approved "journalists" and useful idiots in foreign countries.

Anyhow, if we may quote several movies in the horror genre: He's baaaaaaaaack! (Z)

Foreign Affairs, Part II: Labour Voters Seize the Initiative

We had a preview of the two by-elections that took place in the U.K. yesterday, and promised a report on how they turned out. Regular British correspondent S.T. in Worcestershire, England, UK, was kind enough to handle that for us:

Even as the polling stations were opening at Kingswood and Wellingborough at 7:00 a.m. on Thursday, PM Rishi Sunak was receiving some most unwelcome news. The Office of National Statistics revealed that in the 4th quarter of 2023, preliminary figures show the U.K. economy contracted by 0.3%. As this is the second consecutive quarter of shrinkage, the U.K. is now in a technical recession, albeit a shallow one. In fact, GDP per person has now fallen in 6 of the 7 last quarters and, given that most growth is usually concentrated in London and the Southeast, large parts of the country have probably been in continuous recession since the pandemic. With immaculate timing, The Daily Express, a newspaper which never lets things like facts or reality get in the way of its support of the Conservative Party, had a headline stating: "We're on the Up!" In virtually every interview recently, Sunak has been stating that the economy has "turned the corner." Downwards?

When the by-election counts were concluded, things had hardly improved. As (Z) noted earlier this week, special/by-elections are "inherently wonky." However, they can indicate and reinforce a trend, in this case one that started in mid-2021. Turnout was weak, in the high 30% range, and large chunks of the Conservative vote went "on strike."

At the bellwether seat of Kingswood, a 16.4% swing duly delivered a Labour victory of 2,501 votes. This swing is slightly less than that seen in some recent by-elections, perhaps reflecting the fact that this is a long-established swing constituency with set voting patterns. The candidate for the right-wing populist Reform Party got 10.4% of the vote, which explains where some of the Conservative vote went. The Green Party candidate, possibly helped by her party's strength in next door Bristol, was the only other to get more than 5% of the vote. Damian Egan, the victor, had already been selected as the general election candidate for the new Bristol North East seat, which is where the northern half of Kingswood will be heading after imminent boundary changes, so should have no problem transitioning to his new, fairly safe seat.

Given the circumstances of Peter Bone's removal at Wellingborough, a highly unusual result was expected, and boy did the voters deliver. A massive 28.5% swing from the Conservatives to Labour, powered by the biggest fall in the Conservative share of the vote in ANY by-election since the Second World War! Only the low turnout prevented Labour's Gen Kitchen getting a majority greater than 6,436 votes. The only party, apart from Labour or Conservative, to get more than 5% of the vote was Reform, as deputy leader Ben Habib claimed 13%.

It is a little too early to report all the reaction to these results, but these losses will do absolutely nothing to calm the nerves of our governing party.

Thanks, S.T.! Maybe someday soon, Rep.-Elect Tom Suozzi (D-NY), Egan and Kitchen will get together for beers. (Z)

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Move It on Over

Here's the solution to last week's theme, courtesy of M.H. in Ottawa, ON, Canada:

The theme: Every entry is a song performed by a person or group who shares a name with a U.S. state. (Phew! That was a tough concept to express succinctly!)

• A Great Day for Donald Trump, Part I: "Let It Roll"—song by Flo Rida on the 2012 album Wild Ones (the judges, after some hemming and hawing, will allow it)
  
  
• A Great Day for Donald Trump, Part II: "What's On My Mind"—song by Kansas on the 1977 album Leftoverture
  
  
• A Great Day for Donald Trump, Part III: "Old Nevada Moon"—song by Patsy Montana, 1935
  
  
• A Bad Week for Mike Johnson: "I'll Never Be Free"—performed by Kay Starr and Tennessee Ernie Ford, 1950
  
  
• I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: "Black Is The Color of My True Love's Hair"—Oh, boy. More below.
  
  
• This Week in Schadenfreude: "When It All Goes South"—song by Alabama on the 2000 album When It All Goes South
  
  
• This Week in Freudenfreude: "Take Me to Your Party"—song by New York Dolls on the 2013 album French Kiss '74

Sadly, I don't have a great answer for "Black Is The Color of My True Love's Hair." I've done some digging that suggests it was covered by Tennessee Ernie Ford in 1959, but that would make two entries by Ford, so not a great answer. I've also seen reference to a cover by Bob Blaine & The Aloha Hawaiians in 1969, which I like even less. ("Hawaiian" isn't a state, it's a demonym). So I'm at a bit of a loss, but everything else works far too well, so I don't think I've got the theme wrong. Ah, well.

Oh, and of course you're right: Miley Cyrus shouldn't count towards the theme, even under her alter ego as Hannah Montana.

Thanks, M.H.! And we made a little bit of a mistake here. We actually intended the artist for "I'll Never Be Free" to be Dinah Washington, leaving Tennessee Ernie Ford for "Black Is The Color of My True Love's Hair." That was wrongheaded, however, as the Tennessee Ernie Ford version of "I'll Never Be Free" is far, far more famous. That said, as reader B.M.R. in Aurora, CO brings to our attention, there are versions of "Black Is The Color of My True Love's Hair" by the New Hampshire String Ensemble and the Texas State Men's Choir, so our mess can also be cleaned up that way. And incidentally, the song in this item's headline, "Move It on Over," was recorded by George Thorogood and his backing band during the time that the band was known as the Delaware Destroyers (they eventually dropped the "Delaware").

Here are the first 25 readers to get it right:

1. B.M. in Chico, CA
2. D.D. in Highland Park, IL
3. J.H. in Lake Forest, CA
4. R.P. in Brooklyn, NY
5. J.N. in Zionsville, IN
6. M.W. in Frederick, MD
7. D.L. in Uslar, Germany
8. N.S. in Los Angeles, CA
9. S.K. in Drexel Hill, PA
10. T.K. in Half Moon Bay, St. Kitts
11. J.E. in Onondaga County, NY
12. S.H. in Vestal, NY
13. A.J. in Huddersfield, England, UK
14. J.D. in Boston, MA
15. D.L. in Seymour, CT
16. J.B. in Boise, ID
17. A.C. in Kingston, MA
18. S.G. in Durham, NC
19. E.G. in Carmel, IN
20. P.R. in Kirksville, MO
21. B.M.R. in Aurora
22. J.L. in Walnut Creek, CA
23. N.H. in London, England, UK
24. G.G. in Nottinghamshire, England UK
25. D.M. in Oakland, CA

As to this week's theme, it is contained in some, but not all the words after the colons. In Trivial Pursuit, it would fit in the category Sports and Leisure. And as to a hint, we'll tell you the solution is right there in black and white. If you have a guess, send a message to comments@electoral-vote.com with subject line "February 16 Headlines." (Z)

This Week in Schadenfreude: Moms For Liberty Is Getting Crushed

Moms for Liberty is, to most people who are not members of the group, pretty obnoxious. Their aggressive censorship of books is part of the problem, but their aggressive "persuasive" tactics, often in service of a discriminatory agenda, are an even bigger part.

These days, however, things are not going so well for the organization. According to a story this week in The National Review, two of the most prominent chapters of the organization are dying on the vine. The Lehigh County, PA, chapter has shut down entirely, while the Brevard County, FL, chapter, which was the first one in the country, is down to a small handful of members. At the most recent school board meeting in that community, only one Mom for Liberty showed up. She was outgunned during the discussion of whether or not to ban Kite Runner and Slaughterhouse-Five, and eventually snuck out of the room when it became clear the books would stay on library shelves.

The beginning of what is looking more and more like the end came during the 2023 elections. The organization, which by then was pretty toxic, endorsed 130 candidates for various school boards. Less than a dozen of them won, as moms (and dads) for actual liberty rallied to defeat the other 120 folks. And even when Moms for Liberty is able to put up a strong showing, they tend to attract an even louder and larger group of counter-protesters.

It also did not help things that Moms for Liberty founder Bridget Ziegler has been enmeshed in a sex scandal involving her ménage à trois arrangement with her husband and another woman. This undermined her support with many conservatives, who don't approve of that sort of non-traditional arrangement. And it gave ammunition to liberals, since Ziegler defended herself by declaring that people's sex lives are their own business. That's absolutely true, but it also makes her a hypocrite, since she has been more than willing to weigh in on the sex lives of LGBTQ people in the past.

Even without Ziegler's issues, however, Moms for Liberty would surely still be in decline. It appears that the organization/movement was largely a product of the pandemic. Adults had a lot of stored-up spare time and anxiety, and kids were being educated at home, right under mom's and dad's noses. This context lent itself to aggressive interference, in which things got very intense and often very personal. But now that the pandemic is in the rear-view mirror, Moms for Liberty is headed for the same fate. Good riddance. (Z)

This Week in Freudenfreude: A $32.43 Check, a 30,835% Tip

"Diner leaves mega-tip, staff is left in tears" is a pretty old trope, but also a pretty good one, such that anytime there's another entry in the genre, the story tends to spread like wildfire.

This being the case, perhaps you've already heard about the latest variant. It was a slow day at Mason Jar Cafe in Benton Harbor, MI, when a customer named Mark came in for lunch on his way to a close friend's funeral. Mark wanted to honor his friend, and so he left a big, big tip, namely $10,000. If you've got that kind of scratch, that's as good a way to honor a friend as any, we'd say. The tip was split among nine staffers, so each of them got a nice, unexpected $1,000+ bonus that day.

What does this have to do with politics? We do not know, exactly. However, we found the story on The Hill, which is a politics-centered site, just like ours. It was in their "Changing America" section, which has the sub-sections "Respect," "Sustainability," "Resilience," "Enrichment" and "Well-Being." It would seem that the folks who run that site have reached the same conclusion we did, namely that it's useful to have the occasional item to take the edge off the tougher stuff. And if you have to bend a little to squeeze in something that's positive, even if it's not all that political, oh well.

A new study, just published this week, affirms our intuition (and that of The Hill staff, presumably). It was already well-established that negative news is a downer that undermines a person's mood. What the new study looked at was the next step. That is to say, what if the negative stuff is followed by something positive?

Their findings were not surprising. Based on their work with 1,800 study subjects, the researchers found that even a brief bit of positivity can cancel out a pretty big chunk of negativity. Also, humorous items are good and helpful, but items highlighting acts of kindness—like, say, a $10,000 tip at a restaurant—are even better.

In short, Freudenfreude of the Week, which has been a part of the site for about a year and a half (see the first one here) is here to stay. (Z)

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