Could Johnson Refuse to Hold a Vote on a Bill as Popular as the Foreign Aid Bill?

Now that the Senate has passed a $95 billion bill providing aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, along with some humanitarian aid, all eyes are on the House. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has said he will not even bring it up for a vote (because he knows it would pass and then the Freedom Caucus would depose him). Democrats are trying to force his hand. They have signed onto a shell discharge petition that is ready to go as soon as they have gotten four Republicans to sign. So far, none have agreed. There are at least four sane Republicans who are retiring and have nothing to lose by bucking Johnson and Trump, but such is Trump's power over them that it may be tough for the Democrats to get them to sign up.

Johnson has said he wants money for beefing up the border in the bill. But it is likely he is negotiating in bad faith. When the Senate was considering the Lankford-Murphy bill, which had that, why wasn't he out there saying: "Hey senators, vote for that bill and I'll bring it up for a vote over here as soon as it arrives"? Johnson is presumably just stalling until everyone forgets about the bill and Russia has conquered Ukraine.

However, one Republican House member, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA), is calling Johnson's bluff. Fitzpatrick is working with a few Democrats to craft a House version of Lankford-Murphy. Fitzpatrick said his bill might even be released today. If he and some Democrats come up with a bipartisan bill—which shouldn't be so hard, just add $40 billion to the new Senate bill—then Johnson will have to come up with a different excuse. In reality, he doesn't want to provide funding for Ukraine because Donald Trump wants Russia to win the war.

An interesting question is whether it has ever happened that a popular bill passed the Senate with a large bipartisan majority and public support and the House simply refused to act on it. The answer is: Yes, but rarely. In the past 25 years, it has happened only four times on major bills. In 1999, 73 senators voted to require background checks for gun purchases at gun shows and the House didn't take up the bill. In 2009, the Senate passed a bill with 61 votes to increase the size of the House to 437, giving D.C. a House seat for the first time but also giving Utah an extra seat, so as not to change the partisan balance of the House. It failed. In 2013, the Senate passed an immigration bill 68-32. The House didn't even take it up. Last year, the Senate passed a bill 66-30 to repeal the authorization for the Iraq War. You wouldn't think that was so controversial, but apparently it is. The House hasn't voted on it yet.

The nominal reason for not considering Senate bills, even Senate bills passed with dozens of Republican votes, is the "Hastert Rule," which states that a bill should not be considered unless a majority of the House Republican Conference supports it. In other words, bills that would pass primarily with Democratic votes are a no-go zone for Republicans. It doesn't matter what is good for the country. All that matters is what is good for the Republican Party. The Senate bill doesn't have majority support in the House Republican Conference because Donald Trump opposes it.

Yesterday, a little flap developed when Johnson said he has tried repeatedly to have a one-on-one meeting with Joe Biden. Biden has repeatedly said Johnson should take up the Senate bill and hold a vote on it. Biden is apparently worried about a meeting with Johnson in which the Speaker makes all kinds of new and impossible demands and then blames Biden for the talks failing. Biden probably believes—with good reason—that Johnson would not negotiate in good faith because he does not want to fund aid to Ukraine and no amount of Democratic concessions will change that. Biden is probably thinking that even if he concedes everything Johnson asks for, he'll then just come back with more requests and then more. Negotiating with someone who wants the negotiations to fail is never a good strategy and Biden has been around the track enough times to know this. (V)

John Bolton: Trump Genuinely Wants to Pull Out of NATO

John Bolton was Donald Trump's National Security Advisor and has a pretty good idea of what Trump actually thinks about national security issues. In his book The Room Where It Happened, Bolton notes that Trump doesn't understand basic facts and often shoots off his mouth about lots of things he doesn't necessarily care about. Nevertheless, in a recent interview with a Politico reporter, Bolton said that Trump's recent threats about withdrawing from NATO are real. Bolton said: "Look, I was there when he almost withdrew, and he's not negotiating. His goal here is not to strengthen NATO, it's to lay the groundwork to get out." When Bolton hears Republicans say that Trump doesn't mean it and he is just bluffing, Bolton responds: "I'm telling you, I was there in Brussels when he damn near did it."

According to Bolton, Trump has three beefs with Europe:

• Germany, the 2nd biggest economy in NATO, spends considerably less than the recommended 2% of GDP on defense.
• Europeans spend billions of dollars a year to buy natural gas from Russia.
• Europeans screw the U.S. in trade negotiations.

Trump does have a point on spending. Here are the data. Here they are as a chart.

It is true that most NATO countries are short of the 2% that is expected (but not required) and Trump is correct to point this out and push them to increase it. Even bluffing would be legitimate since they all suggested they would spend 2% of GDP on defense and most haven't. But Bolton knows Trump well and says he really wants out. Bolton also knows that if the U.S. withdraws from NATO, Russia will invade and take over Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania in a flash and then might go after Poland. Poland will resist with everything it's got (including attacking Russia) and that risks starting World War III.

Bolton goes on to say that a U.S. withdrawal would be devastating for U.S. security. He said Trump didn't know anything about what the alliance did when he entered office and didn't know anything about what it did when he left office. Then he explained that the world does not have a "natural order." The order is imposed by the U.S. and its allies and the U.S. is not doing this out of charity. It's doing it because it is in the country's national interest. Bolton is a big believer in Ronald Reagan's motto of "Peace through strength." He doesn't think Trump gets it and is nervous about what could happen in the world if Trump wins in November. (V)

Stefanik Really, Really, Really Wants to Be on Trump's Ticket

At one point, we didn't think Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) wanted to be Donald Trump's running mate because she has a toddler at home and veep candidates have to spend months away from home campaigning. Boy, were we ever wrong. Sorry about that. Her political instincts have clearly Trumped her maternal instincts. She very dearly wants the #2 slot and will do anything she can think of to butter up Dear Leader.

Her latest ploy is to file an ethics complaint with the New York Bar Association complaining that NY AG Letitia James is biased and shouldn't have filed a lawsuit alleging that the Trump Organization ripped off banks and insurance companies by giving them fake data to get better deals than they would have gotten with the truth. Stefanik's complaint is 19 pages long with 75 footnotes. It is written in Middle English, as all legal documents are. If you are a lawyer and want to read it, here it is. It concludes with:

Ms. James violated multiple Rules of Professional Conduct through her comments during trial and by actions and comments that adversely reflect on her fitness as a lawyer. I urge the Attorney Grievance Committee to investigate Ms. James' conduct. To remedy the significant and ongoing harm to the public and to protect the profession, Ms. James should be suspended on an interim basis, and then she should be disbarred or suspended.

There is also an appendix with 53 of James' tweets.

Note that Stefanik is not a lawyer and never attended law school. It is inconceivable that she understands a word of her complaint, let alone that she wrote any of it. Either a lawyer on her staff or an outside lawyer wrote it. For a non-lawyer who knows nothing about New York Bar rules dealing with legal ethics, and who has nothing to do with the case, to ask for an elected attorney general to be disbarred or suspended for prosecuting a case clearly within her jurisdiction takes grandstanding to a whole new level. Stefanik is going to take a lot of flak for this stunt. Yesterday was Valentine's Day. We think she should simply have sent the apple of her eye a card like this yesterday:

Will the stunt work? With Trump, you never know, and a not-so-subtle bit of fawning in public often helps. But this kind of stuff from the fourth-ranked Republican in the House is really pretty demeaning. (V)

Does 2016 Hold Clues to 2024?

There are all manner of ways of looking at the 2024 election. We and others have explored many of them and will continue to do so. The other Nate (Cohn), of The New York Times, has a take on the polling that somewhat echoes something we've written about Joe Biden's polling numbers, namely that it's very possible that some meaningful number of undecideds and third-party respondents are just protesting right now, and will eventually be Biden voters.

Cohn notes that in 2016, the initial reaction to Donald Trump among Republicans was mixed, at best. Many Republicans harbored doubts that he was up to the job. Some didn't like his lack of experience and volatile temperament. Then there was the "grab 'em by the p**sy" bit, which, in the E. Jean Carroll cases, we later learned was true.

All this uncertainty was reflected in the polls at the time. Among Republicans, Trump was polling in the 70s for months. Even in the final weeks, he was polling in the low 80s among Republicans. This is why so many polls had Hillary Clinton winning: Republicans were abandoning Trump due to his many flaws. This lack of popularity with Republican voters also explains why Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson was polling at 10% close to the election.

But in the last few days of the 2016 race, nearly all the Republican voters came home. The thought of Hillary Clinton as president was too much for them and they held their nose and voted for Trump, despite their many misgivings. Note that these were not "shy Trump voters" who were embarrassed to tell pollsters that Donald was their new true love. They really didn't like him. They could have voted for Johnson or stayed home. In the end, the partisan pull was too strong and they pulled the lever or marked the box for the (R).

Is the situation now the same as in 2016, albeit as a mirror image? Many voters don't like the major party candidates now, as in 2016, so the polling for minor candidates is out of sight. Large numbers of Democrats think Joe Biden is too old or too timid or too something and are not inspired by him. Black and Latino men, especially, are quite unhappy with him for a variety of reasons, mostly that he didn't deliver on the unrealistic expectations they had. Many young voters don't like Biden's support for Israel. But in 2016, according to the exit polls, 88% of Republicans voted for Trump, 8% voted for Hillary Clinton, and 4% voted for a third-party candidate. Among Democrats, 89% voted for Clinton, 8% voted for Trump, and 3% voted for a third-party candidate. That means that when push came to shove, most people came "home" to their party, despite the candidate's obvious and major defects. The pull of partisanship is that strong. Will that happen this year? Check back with us in mid-November when the exit polls are released. (V)

Engoron Is Expected to Issue His Ruling Tomorrow

Today and tomorrow are big days for Donald Trump on the legal front. As we noted yesterday, today Trump will attend the hearing run by Judge Juan Merchan concerning the Stormy Daniels hush money case and will skip the hearing in Atlanta in which Judge Scott McAfee will decide if Fani Willis can continue on the Georgia RICO case. But for Trump, the really important news is likely to come tomorrow. Inside sources are reporting that Judge Arthur Engoron, who is presiding over NY AG Letitia James' civil suit against Trump, will issue his ruling then. Engoron has already ruled that Trump engaged in fraud. Tomorrow he will announce the penalty. James is asking for $370 million, but Engoron is free to pick any random 9-digit number he wants. Or maybe, if he is in a bad mood, a 10-digit number.

Last month, he said he would try to pick a number by the end of January. Picking a number isn't so hard. There are plenty of random number generators out on the Internet that can provide you with a random number in whatever range you want. Why the delay? We don't know, but we do know that the monitor Engoron appointed to oversee the Trump Organization, retired judge Barbara Jones, wrote him a letter in late January that mentions a $48 million payment Trump received, supposedly in repayment of a loan. If there was indeed a loan, that money would not be taxable income. However, Jones asserted that there was no loan and Trump simply evaded taxes, a felony, on $48 million in income. It is possible that Engoron wanted to learn more about this "loan" and take it into account when picking his number. We'll probably find out tomorrow. If Trump is fined $370 million or more, he is going to be extremely unhappy and will lash out at Engoron, the courts, and more.

Will this move the needle politically? Probably not a lot. Nothing seems to, and this is only a civil case. Still, losing so much money will really get to Trump and maybe cause him to say things that don't play well with college-educated suburban voters who don't want to burn the whole country down. (V)

Michigan Senate Race Gets Simpler

The retirement of Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) has created an open Senate seat in a key swing state. This will be a closely fought and closely watched race. The Democratic side is more-or-less a done deal. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), a former CIA agent and prodigious fundraiser, has the full backing of the Democratic Party. Actor Hill Harper is challenging her in the primary, but he is tilting at windmills. As of Dec. 31, 2023, Slotkin had $6.0 million cash in the bank and Harper had $0.2 million. Two unknowns also filed.

The Republican side is far more complicated. The NRCC recruited former representative Mike Rogers. He is not especially Trumpy, but he is a former Michigan congressman. Interestingly enough, his website doesn't list his positions on anything. That looks like someone who doesn't stand for anything and doesn't want to offend anyone. Wait a minute... has anyone ever seen Rogers and Steve Garvey in the same room together? Hmm....

Also running is Peter Meijer, an Army veteran who is also scion of a family that owns a large number of supermarkets throughout the Midwest. He is a former House member as well, but he accepted the 2020 election results. That is something of a no-no in the modern Republican Party, so he was primaried from the right in 2022 and lost the nomination. Now he wants to try for the Senate. He will have all the money he needs for the primary and, if need be, the general election.

Wealthy businessman Sandy Pensler loves running for Congress. He ran for the House in 1992 and for the Senate in 2018. Unfortunately for him, the people of Michigan don't seem to want him to represent them. But he has enough money to match Meijer, which could make it interesting.

Now here is the newsy part. Former Detroit chief of police James Craig has also run for office before. He filed to run for governor in 2022 but was disqualified because some of the signatures on his petition were bogus. That makes sense because he is exceedingly Trumpy. Also, he has been married four times to three different women and has gone bankrupt twice. What's not to like? So naturally, Donald Trump endorsed him. However, Craig has a money problem. As of Dec. 31, 2023, he had $28,000 cash on hand, compared to Pensler with $1.0 million, Rogers with $945,000, and Meijer with $389,000 (although Meijer can add to that whenever he wants to). Craig has now seen the handwriting on the wall and it says: "You're broke." Consequently, he dropped out, leaving Rogers, Meijer, and Pensler to duke it out. What was odd is that in the most recent poll, Craig was at 33%, Rogers was at 20%, Meijer was at 11%, and Pensler was at 2%. Since there is plenty of time left (the primary is Aug. 6) the millionaires and Rogers can duke it out for months and wear each other out, while Slotkin goes around collecting more money. Perhaps one of the remaining Republicans will now go full Trumpy to get the former president's endorsement now that Craig is out of the way. We'll see.

The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rate the race as lean Democratic. Polling shows Slotkin with small leads over both Meijer and Rogers. (V)

This Year's Senate Elections Could Determine Control of the Senate for Years to Come

This year, Democrats will be defending more precarious seats than any other election in the 2020s. Three races are taking place in states Donald Trump won twice (Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia) and six more are in states Joe Biden barely won, by 3 points or less. Republicans are not defending any seat in a state Trump lost or even won by 3 points or less. If the Democrats lose most of these nine races, they are doomed in the Senate for the rest of the decade. That has obvious implications for the Supreme Court and lower courts as well.

The real problem is that Tip O'Neill was wrong. Politics is not local anymore. All Senate races have become national. Split tickets have gone the way of the dodo. With few exceptions, states that go for Republican presidential candidates go for Republican senators and vice versa. Take a look at the 118th Senate. Only five members belong to the party that lost the state in 2020, namely Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Susan Collins (R-ME), Ron Johnson (R-WI), Joe Manchin (D-WV), and Jon Tester (D-MT).

This wasn't always the case. After the 1984 election, after two Ronald Reagan landslides, Democrats held half the Senate seats in the states that went for Reagan twice. Now, Republicans hold only two Senate seats in the 25 states Biden won in 2020 and Democrats hold only three seats in the 2020 Trump states. But if we look at the close states, we can see why the Democrats' long-term situation is iffy. Biden won Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by 3 points or less. Yet 11 of the 12 senators from these swing states are Democrats. Only Johnson (WI) is a Republican. If these states go red in 2024, Democrats could potentially lose four of these seats this year (Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin). They could also lose two more in 2026 (Georgia and Michigan). Throw in three potential losses this year in red states (Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia), then the worst case for the Democrats in Jan. 2027 is a loss of nine seats. That could put the Republicans within spitting distance of the 60 seats needed to invoke cloture, assuming the filibuster even survives.

Of course, this is an absolute worst-case scenario for the Democrats, but it does point out that many Democratic senators represent Republican or marginally Democratic states. The only Republicans in real danger in a world of straight party-line voting are Collins and Johnson. And Collins' personal popularity and folksy style makes her tough to beat, even against a young and strong opponent with a massive $106 million in her campaign warchest (in 2020). Pretty much all the other Republicans are in safely red states. The only real exceptions here are the two Republican senators in North Carolina, Thom Tillis and Ted Budd. North Carolina is trending blue and if it gets over the hill this time, Tillis could be beaten in 2026 and Budd could be beaten in 2028. But it remains a fact of life that by and large, most of the red states are deep red while many of the blue states are light blue.

And all of this is true despite the fact that there are more Democrats than Republicans nationwide. The Democrats' fundamental problem is that they clumped together in a small number of states. The thinly populated red states in the West each get two senators, the same as the densely populated blue states in the East. Unless the Democrats start appealing to rural voters in the Midwest and West, this problem is not going away. It is not impossible for them to make headway. As recently as 1992, the electoral college map looked like this.

In 1992, Bill Clinton won 32 states. If the Democrats had all the Senate seats in their presidential states, they would have had 64 Senate seats (they actually had 57, because party-line voting was weaker then). This map shows you that stuff changes. It can (and will) change again, only we don't know how. (V)

North Carolina Gubernatorial Candidate Wants Trans Women Arrested

Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R-NC) is doing his best to make sure North Carolina has 16 consecutive years of Democratic governors. The current two-term governor, Roy Cooper (D-NC), is a Democrat and Robinson seems to be trying to help North Carolina AG Josh Stein (D) succeed him. Robinson is the leading candidate for the Republican nomination to face Stein in November and insists upon saying things that will help ensure that Stein beats him in November.

At a campaign stop in Cary, NC, Robinson recently said: "We're going to defend women in this state. That means if you're a man on Friday night and all of a sudden on Saturday, you feel like a woman and you want to go in the women's bathroom in the mall, you will be arrested—or whatever we got to do to you." He didn't elaborate on the "whatever we got to do to you" part, but it sounds ominous.

All we can say is that this guy isn't very good at paying attention. In March 2016, then-North Carolina governor Pat McCrory (R) signed the infamous "bathroom bill" that required people using sex-segregated public restrooms to use the one corresponding to the sex on their birth certificate. The law sparked massive protests, with entertainers canceling shows, businesses planning to move to North Carolina canceling plans, and sports leagues moving championship games out of the state. McCrory's approval rating dropped 15 points and he lost his reelection campaign to Cooper.

If Robinson has half a brain, he ought to know that "who uses which bathroom" is not a winning issue in North Carolina. It got a sitting Republican governor in a red state, who was first elected by 13 points, defeated for reelection. That's not easy to do. The issue has a proven track record of not working in North Carolina, so you would think Robinson would be smart enough not to touch it with a 10-foot pole, but no. He wants to arrest people using the wrong bathroom. He didn't get into the details, though. For example, will people using a public restroom be required to carry a copy of their birth certificate with them and undergo an inspection by the bathroom police upon entry, or will there be random checks from time to time? If someone does not have a birth certificate with them, will they be refused entry? How much will it cost to have a new division of the state police dedicated to enforcing bathroom laws?

This is not the first time Robinson, who is Black, has said controversial things, but this is clearly the dumbest of all given how this issue cost a previous Republican governor his job. Robinson previously said: "This foolishness about Hitler disarming MILLIONS of Jews and then marching them off to concentration camps is a bunch of hogwash." That didn't go over big with Jews. He also said that Christians are called to be led by men. That didn't go over so well with women. The time Robinson visited a Black church and gave a sermon calling homosexuality "filth" didn't go over so well with gay people. We are waiting for him to attack Blacks, Latinos, and Asian Americans. November is nine months away, so there is still time.

Robinson has two opponents in the GOP primary. One is the state treasurer, Dale Folwell, and the other is an attorney and previously failed gubernatorial candidate, Bill Graham. The most recent poll has Robinson at 34%, Graham at 9% and Folwell at 4%. However, 53% are undecided or not paying attention, so it is not a done deal yet. (V)

Mark Green Is Retiring

Rep. Mark Green (R-TN) is at the top of his career. As chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, he managed to pull off the impossible: He got Secretary of DHS Alejandro Mayorkas impeached on Tuesday, even though Mayorkas hasn't committed any high crimes or misdemeanors, as required by the Constitution. With his crowning achievement now completed, Green felt he could hang up his hat, so yesterday he announced that he will be retiring from Congress at the end of this term.

Green is the fourth committee chair to call it quits. At 59, and from a red district (R+10), he could have served for another 20 years or more, including another stint as committee chairman. What is going on with so many retirements? Normally, people in positions of great power don't throw in the towel so easily when reelection is easy. Green said that he is disgusted with the way Congress works, but as a member of the Freedom Caucus, Congress' dysfunction is partly his own fault. He gave a vague hint that his time in public service may not be over yet. Since both of Tennessee's senators are Republicans, moving over to the other end of the Capitol seems unlikely. Perhaps he is thinking of running for governor when Gov. Bill Lee (R-TN) is term-limited in 2026. That would be an option. (V)

---

If you wish to contact us, please use one of these addresses. For the first two, please include your initials and city.

• questions@electoral-vote.com    For questions about politics, civics, history, etc. to be answered on a Saturday
• comments@electoral-vote.com   For "letters to the editor" for possible publication on a Sunday
• corrections@electoral-vote.com To tell us about typos or factual errors we should fix
• items@electoral-vote.com            For general suggestions, ideas, etc.

To download a poster about the site to hang up in school, at work, etc., please click here.

---

Email a link to a friend or share some other way.

---The Votemaster and Zenger