Trump Legal News: The Trial (Day 3)

Yesterday, the task at hand for Judge Juan Merchan was to get as much of a jury seated as is possible. Things did not get off to a good start, but by the end of the day, the Court had managed to empanel 12 regular jurors and one alternate.

The reason the day got off to a poor start is that two of the jurors who had already been empaneled were dismissed. The oncology nurse we listed as Juror 2 yesterday told Merchan that enough information about her had become public that people had begun to put 2 and 2 together and figure out her identity. She said she feared for her safety, asked to be dismissed, and was.

The other juror to get the heave-ho was listed yesterday as Juror 4; the older Puerto Rican man who said he finds Trump fascinating and mysterious. The DA's office found news stories about a person of the same name who got busted for defacing right-wing political posters back in the 1990s. They also found news stories about the wife of a person of the same name being part of a corruption investigation, also in the 1990s. If Juror 4 was positively identified as the subject of either of those news stories, that information has not been made public. However, after a long bench conference, Merchan decided to dismiss.

That means that we have 8 new jurors. Here's a brief rundown of the newbies, with comments, like we did yesterday:

• Juror 2: The new Juror 2 is an investment banker who is married without children. So, we know it's not Al Bundy. He loves him some eX-Twitter, and so has seen postings from both Trump and Michael Cohen through that platform. He has not read The Art of the Deal, so he has at least one thing in common with Trump. This fellow seems pretty neutral to us; not favorable to either the defense or prosecution.
  
  
• Juror 4: The new Juror 4 is a security engineer who did not graduate college. We are not sure exactly what that job title means. It's possible he works in cybersecurity, though that would be unusual without a college diploma. It's also possible "security engineer" is a euphemism for "guy who stands at the entrance to the grocery store to discourage shoplifters." He doesn't like social media or reading, and while he has served on a jury before, he could not remember the verdict. Sounds like he's pretty much a blank slate.
  
  
• Juror 8: He is a retired wealth manager who admits he has "strong opinions" about Trump, but says he can be fair and impartial, and that he cares more about his hobbies than about politics. Undoubtedly, the prosecution is hoping those are strong negative opinions, while the defense is hoping those are strong positive opinions. The general consensus among those in the room was that it's the former, not the latter.
  
  
• Juror 9: She is a speech therapist who lives alone and says she doesn't know much about the news or about legal proceedings. If Trump actually takes the stand, she might have some interesting insights to share in the jury room about what his speech patterns reveal. She's not supposed to share those insights, but there are lots of things that aren't supposed to happen in jury rooms but do.
  
  
• Juror 10: He is from Ohio, works in e-commerce, and says he prefers to listen to podcasts about behavioral psychology rather than paying attention to the news. We suspect he might have some insights in the jury room, albeit those of an armchair psychologist. Just what the trial needs, a Jonathan Haidt clone.
  
  
• Juror 11: She was born and raised in California and works for a multinational apparel company. Although she says she does not follow the news, she does like to watch late-night comedians. Unless she's referring to Gutfeld!, then it means she's been exposed to a goodly amount of Trump criticism and mockery. She also said Trump seems "very selfish and self-serving." Clearly, the defense had exhausted their peremptory challenges by the time this juror was seated.
  
  
• Juror 12: She is a physical therapist with a Ph.D. who follows The New York Times, USA Today and CNN, and likes to listen to podcasts on sports and faith. Maybe she's an evangelical fundamentalist, but not too many people like that have a Ph.D., live in New York, and read the NYT. And if she's not an evangelical fundamentalist, then this reads like the profile of a juror more amenable to the prosecution than the defense.
  
  
• Alternate 1: She was born in the U.K., works in finance, and reads the NYT and the WSJ. Brits and women both tend to be Trump-skeptical, so our guess is that the defense would prefer she not be moved into the regular pool.

So, it looks to us like none of the new jurors are likely to lean Trumpward, while about half of them look to be moderately unfriendly to him. Of course, this is just guesswork, and it's also possible that someone is misrepresenting themselves. And all Trump needs is one to hang the jury.

The other big storyline is that the prosecution feels Trump has now violated his gag order seven times, and they want sanctions. Merchan may address that today, or he may wait until Monday, by which time there are sure to be at least, what, seven more violations? Either Trump just can't control himself, or he wants to be jailed. Either way, the Judge is going to have to do something, or the gag order is meaningless.

The trial will resume today, of course, and the general consensus is that opening arguments will commence on Monday. Guess we know what our first item will be every day next week. We will likely have an item on Day 4 tomorrow, and we'll definitely have some questions and answers about the trial. (Z)

RFK Jr.: Feud With Family Is Getting Warmer

Things are not yet as heated as they will become, we suspect, but more than a dozen members of the Kennedy family joined Joe Biden in Philadelphia yesterday to formally endorse the President for reelection, and to share their view that people should not vote for their cousin/brother, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is nothing like his father.

To his credit, Junior handled the anti-endorsement with class, writing on eX-Twitter: "I hear some of my family will be endorsing President Biden today. I am pleased they are politically active—it's a family tradition. We are divided in our opinions but united in our love for each other. I hold this as a possibility for America too. Can we disagree without hating our opponents? Can we restore civility and respect to public discourse? I think we can."

We will see if this civility continues as the campaign wears on. If the Biden campaign continues to see RFK Jr. as a threat, then members of the Kennedy clan will presumably become regular attendees at campaign events, just to remind everyone where they stand. Further, it is very probable that Kerry Kennedy, daughter of RFK Sr. and thus sister of Junior, who spoke immediately prior to Biden yesterday, will be given a prime speaking spot at the Democratic National Convention. Incidentally, it is probable that Donald Trump's campaign events will also feature regular attendance by members of the clan, but not the Kennedys, and not spelled that way.

And as long as we are on the subject of RFK Jr., his VP choice is paying the sort of dividends she was selected to pay—literally. Yesterday, Nicole Shanahan donated $2 million to the Kennedy/Shanahan campaign. We don't know what she thinks she's buying with that money, exactly, but it would seem she can afford it. (Z)

Israel Bombs Iran

Details are still scarce, but late last night, Israel apparently fired at least one missile at the Isfahan region of Iran. Obviously, this is the latest move in the game of tit-for-tat that the two nations have been playing for several weeks (and, really, for several generations).

We do not presume to know what motivated the Israelis, but we can pass along the two most common explanations that are floating around. The less damning is that the internal politics of the nation demanded a response to the recent Iranian missile attack. The more damning is that PM Benjamin Netanyahu in particular, and members of the war cabinet in general, know they are likely to be voted out of office once hostilities subside, and so they want to keep the hostilities going for as long as is possible.

In any event, with international support for Israel shakier than it's been in a long time, Netanyahu & Co. are playing a dangerous game here. Should this become a broader war, with Iran and the various militant groups it backs joining in, full-throttle, things could get very, very ugly. Presumably the U.S. and U.K. would rally to the defense of Israel, but while that was a 100% certainty in years past, it's not 100% right now.

Meanwhile, this is not great news for Joe Biden. His early-in-the-week statecraft was enough to get Israel to delay a response, but clearly wasn't enough to persuade them to forgo a response entirely. If this does devolve into a broader regional conflict, you don't need us to tell you that's very problematic for his reelection hopes. (Z)

In the House: Republican Conference Puts Johnson through the Grinder

It's not easy to stay up-to-date on the soap opera that is the United States House of Representatives' Republican Conference. Yesterday, several of the far-right members of the Conference tried to twist Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-LA) arm so that he might back down on his plans to bring a bill for Ukraine aid up for a vote. He said that he was not only not backing down, but that he also wanted to change the rules of the House so that a single member can no longer bring a motion to vacate.

Once that got out there, the elephant poop really hit the fan. Several members of the Freedom Caucus said that they are not sure yet if the Ukraine bill will lead them to support Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) in vacating the chair, but that taking away the one-member-can-vacate rule certainly would cause them to support getting rid of Johnson. Several of the non-crazy and/or less crazy members got angry about all of this, and there was shouting on the floor of the House, with several GOP members nearly coming to blows. Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI) confronted the Speaker, said he might well bring his own motion to vacate, and called Johnson "tubby."

Later, after things had calmed down, Van Orden explained to reporters that the "tubby" insult was not meant for Johnson, but instead for Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL). He said:

That [tubby insult] was directed directly at Matt Gaetz. He felt like he should call me a squish and I wanted to remind anybody who has not been in combat and held his friend's hand as they died being shot by the enemy really doesn't have any business calling someone else a squish. And so, in fact, I did call him tubby and I stand by that.

So what that means is that, in the process of engaging in obnoxiousness and aggression with the Speaker, the FCers were simultaneously engaging in obnoxiousness and aggression with each other. Perfectly normal, perfectly healthy. Right?

Eventually, Johnson backed down on his plan to change the motion-to-vacate rule. Still, the non-crazy/less crazy members were furious with the nutters. Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) appeared on CNN, and blamed "Matt Gaetz and seven useful idiots" for all the chaos in the House. Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-NY) was also on CNN, and expressed similar sentiments, saying of Greene: "Her theater and this constant effort to hold the Congress hostage has to come to an end. And a good number of my colleagues—conservative and moderate—believe that enough is enough. It is time to move on and to move past this kind of nonsense."

As chance would have it, at very nearly the same time that Molinaro was on CNN lambasting Greene's craziness, she was providing Exhibit number 1,439 of said craziness, filing an amendment to the Israel aid bill that reads "By the funds made available by this Act, such sums as necessary shall be used for the development of space laser technology on the southwest border." Yep, the only way Israel can fight off Hamas is with adequate investment in Jewish space lasers.

Also coming late yesterday afternoon was an announcement from Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-KS) that he will retire from his seat at the end of the term. He gave a standard explanation, that he wants to "pursue other opportunities and have the benefit of spending more time with my family." And he made a point of implying that his announcement was not inspired by yesterday's events, writing: "Undoubtedly, the current dysfunction on Capitol Hill is distressing, but it almost always has been; we just didn't see most of it." If the implication is truthful, well, then it's quite a coincidence that he just so happened to throw in the towel on a day of high drama right in the middle of the week. In any case, LaTurner's district, KS-02, covers the eastern part of Kansas, excepting the lefty suburbs of Kansas City. It's R+11, and will undoubtedly remain in Republican hands. (Z)

I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Blood Work

For last week's headline theme, we gave the hint that "the Civil War historian on staff very badly wanted to work Gettysburg in, but while that fits the theme, it does not work for any headline." Then we added that it's instructive that while the unused word was "Gettysburg," the category for the theme was Arts & Entertainment. And now, here is reader C.H. in Atlanta, GA with the solution:

I believe the theme relates to films or television shows in which fellow Georgian Jeff Daniels acted:

• Mike Johnson: An End to the Heartburn?—Heartburn (2008)
• Third Party Candidates: The State of Play—State of Play (2009)
• Republican Senate Candidates: Liars, Cheaters and Carpetbaggers—Cheaters (2000)
• I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: The Purple Rose of Cairo—The Purple Rose of Cairo (1985)
• This Week in Schadenfreude: Dumb and Dumber—Dumb and Dumber (1994)
• This Week in Freudenfreude: The Need for Speed—Speed (1994)
• Honorable Mention: Gettysburg (1993)

While not on the list, I'll never forget the first time I heard his opening monologue in The Newsroom's first episode:

We agree, that monologue is great.

Here are the first 30 readers to get the theme right:

1. S.G. in Durham, NC
2. A.J. in Baltimore, MD
3. S.S. in Carmel, IN
4. M.B. in Albany, NY
5. W.M.H.B. in Salamanca, Spain
6. R.D. in Cheshire, CT
7. R.C. in Eagleville, PA
8. S.K. in Drexel Hill, PA
9. M.T. in Wheat Ridge, CO
10. R.H.O. in Portland, ME
11. B.M. in Chico, CA
12. J.W. in Bergisch Gladbach, Germany
13. G.M.K. in Mishawaka, IN
14. C.H. in Atlanta
15. G.K. in Blue Island, IL
16. S.W. in Orland Park, IL, who adds "Believe me, I've no wish to become Infamous for whiling away The Hours solving your quiz. But if I get it right two weeks in a row, I'm liable to start calling myself The Answer Man."
17. J.N. in Zionsville, IN
18. D.D. in Carversville, PA
19. D.S. in Layton, UT
20. I.G. in New York City, NY
21. A.K. in Alexandria, VA
22. I.H. in Washington, DC
23. N.S. in Los Angeles, CA
24. M.C. in Falls Church, VA
25. S.J.V. in New York City, NY
26. B.R.M. in Aurora, CO
27. A.A. in South Orange, NJ
28. J.K. in Sandy Spring, MD
29. L.D. in Bedford, MA
30. K.R. in Austin, TX

We had no idea, when we put this together, that there are so many Jeff Daniels fans out there. Quite a few of the messages had laudatory things to say about his body of work.

As to this week's theme, it requires some of the words to the right of the colon but not all, the Israel story is not a part of the puzzle, the Trivial Pursuit category would be Arts & Literature (but only very loosely), and a hint is that putting this together made us think of the opening scene from Forrest Gump.

If you have a guess, send it in to comments@electoral-vote.com, preferably with subject "April 19 Headlines." (Z)

This Week in Schadenfreude: Trump Does Warrant This Space Sometimes

There is a sports-media-focused site called Awful Announcing that used to do a weekly rundown of the three worst "takes" from sports talking heads each week. And after a year or so of that feature, they decided to permanently retire several people from further consideration because those people (Jason Whitlock and Colin Cowherd, if you are wondering) said so much stupid stuff that they were taking up most or all of the list every week. Those two were thus graduated to the bad sports take Hall of Fame, so that the feature could have a wider breadth of coverage.

Similarly, Donald Trump is someone who could theoretically appear in this space just about every week. The same is true of certain members of Congress, like Marge Greene. But that would get tiresome. That said, we don't want to promote anyone to the Schadenfreude Hall of Fame, because every once in a while we might like to feature these folks.

Such is the case with Trump this week. He does so many eyebrow-raising things that... well, it doesn't really raise eyebrows much anymore. But sometimes it's worth a reminder that this is a man with many... concerning liabilities. This week, quite a few of them were on display:

• Wrath: Trump has always been infuriated by people who make him the butt of jokes. There is a theory, and it's not crazy, that his whole decision to run for president in the first place was prompted by the jokes that Barack Obama made at his expense during the 2011 White House Press Correspondents dinner.
  
  Another joke-maker, and thus target of violent anger from Trump, is late-night host Jimmy Kimmel, who also hosted the Oscars this year. During the Oscar ceremony, Trump was live-Truthing, and Kimmel read one of his comments, to much laughter from the audience. On Wednesday (which is to say, more than a month later), Trump vented his rage at Kimmel:

  Stupid Jimmy Kimmel, who still hasn't recovered from his horrendous performance and big ratings drop as Host of The Academy Awards, especially when he showed he suffered from TDS, commonly known as TRUMP DERANGEMENT SYNDROME, to the entire World by reading on air my TRUTH about how bad a job he was doing that night, right before he stumbled through announcing the biggest award of all, "Picture of the Year." It was a CLASSIC CHOKE, one of the biggest ever in show business, and to top it off, he forgot to say the famous and mandatory line, "AND THE WINNER IS." Instead he stammered around as he opened the envelope. Supposedly his wife, and even management, begged him not to do it, "DON'T READ HIS TRUTH, JIMMY, PLEASE DON'T DO THIS," they said. He was made to look like a FOOL, which he is, and at the same time go down in Television History as the WORST HOST EVER OF THE ONCE VAUNTED ACADEMY AWARDS!

  There are three problems here. First, the ratings were actually up this year (by about 4%). Second, they don't say "And the winner is..." anymore, they say "And the Oscar goes to." They only made that change 20 or so years ago, so maybe Trump missed it. And missed it again. And again. And again. Third, and finally, it was not Kimmel who announced the Best Picture award, it was Al Pacino. Easy mistake; after all, they are both Italian and are a mere 27 years different in age.
  
  
• Sloth: As with the Oscars story, there are many things that Trump does not know, and that he does not bother to double-check, or even think through, presumably because it takes too much effort. For example, even if you struggle to tell the difference between Jimmy Kimmel and Al Pacino, it should take 2 seconds to realize that the host of the Oscars does not announce the Best Picture recipient. That high-profile job is always done by an A-list actor, usually one who has a full, and legendary, career under their belts. Think Jack Nicholson or Warren Beatty or Faye Dunaway or Liza Minelli (but NOT Will Smith, at least for the next 8 years).
  
  Similarly, Trump revealed how much he does not know (or think), and how much he does not care to know (or think) this week, when he took to his boutique social media platform to post this:

  I thought STRIKES were supposed to be "unlimited" when we were picking our jury? I was then told we only had 10, not nearly enough when we were purposely given the 2nd Worst Venue in the Country. Don't worry, we have the First Worst also, as the Witch Hunt continues! ELECTION INTERFERENCE!

  This is something that is easy enough to look up. Or, alternatively, Trump could just ask his lawyers how it works. Or, even better yet, he could think about it for 2 seconds. If there were unlimited challenges, then a defendant—like, say, him—could just refuse to approve ANY jurors, and drag the trial out until the sun burns out.
  
  
• Hubris: As part of the trial coverage, it was also reported this week (first by The New York Times' Maggie Haberman) that Trump has an aide named Natalie Harp, and her job is to boost the former president's spirits and ego on a regular basis. How does she do it? She carries around a laptop and a wireless printer and prints out positive stories about Trump from the Internet for him to see. It's truly amazing to have an ego that is both that big and that fragile.
  
  
• Avarice: This week, the Trump campaign advised other Republicans that if they use his name or likeness to raise money, they really need to send 5% of their take to the Trump campaign. It's phrased as a request, but it reads like the sort of request you might get from Vito and Tony when they visit your shop in Hell's Kitchen: "This is a nice shop. We'd like to ask you to send us 5% of your take, so it stays nice."
  
  On one hand, if Trump is being used to raise money, we suppose it's at least somewhat reasonable for him to demand a cut. On the other hand, his fortunes are very much tied to those of downballot Republicans, and if they get voters to the polls, he benefits, too. So maybe hitting them up isn't sound electoral strategy. On the third hand, we all know the 5% is not for his campaign, it's for his legal fund, and he'll do whatever he can to help pay his lawyer bills.
  
  All of this said, it does not seem that Team Trump has thought through the campaign finance implications of this. If someone donates the maximum to the Trump campaign, and then donates to, say, Matt Gaetz, and then Gaetz kicks 5% of that to Trump, that is illegal, since the donor would be exceeding the legal limits. You'd think that this week, of all weeks, the former president would be mindful of the risks of mishandling campaign funds. But apparently not.

So, that's four deadly sins, which is a pretty good week's work. Did he also indulge in some gluttony, lust and despair this week? Probably so, but those things are so common for him that they make the news even less often than the other four. (Z)

This Week in Freudenfreude: Drew Carey Is a Team Player

Perhaps this is ungenerous of us, but when we see a story about how celebrity X has donated $10,000 to hurricane relief, or $25,000 to fight homelessness, we're not quite sure that is as laudatory as the media makes it seem. Yes, $10,000 or $25,000 is a lot of money... to most people. But often, to the celebrity in question, it's effectively the equivalent of $50 or $100, compared to their total wealth. Plus, somehow, some way, the world became aware of their donation, which means they got some pretty good PR for their investment. We are sure the celebrity does not announce their donation 100% of the time, and that the information sometimes leaks out other ways. But we also are sure it's not 0% of the time, either.

In any event, this item is not about one of those occasions. Yes, the news leaked out, but it was sure to do so, as the beneficiaries included many, many members of the general public. And the giver, Drew Carey—comedian, actor, and current host of The Price is Right—definitely did not make a point of keeping his giving modest. The incident in question is the recent strike by the Writers Guild of America (WGA), which dragged on for 148 days. Carey wanted to make sure that the people walking the picket lines had something to eat, so he arranged with two nearby restaurants to charge everyone's bills to him. This is actually the second time he's done this; he made the same arrangement during the previous strike, back in 2007. However, while that tab ended up being about $70,000, the more recent tab set Carey back a bit more—over $1 million.

Since Carey was regularly posting the invite to social media, his generosity was not going to remain unknown. But the only reason the final tally became public, and that the story is in the news right now, is that the WGA recognized him with an award at their annual ceremony on Sunday night. And he told the crowd: "You writers—well not all of you, the Drew Carey Show writers—made me a fu**ing millionaire. Everybody in this room made some actor a millionaire. And you deserve all the money you get."

So, how is this a political story? Well, you might assume that as a Hollywood type who just gave $1 million to striking workers, he's a liberal and a Democrat. But no, he's actually a pretty staunch conservative-leaning Libertarian. And so we pass the story along to note that being wealthy and/or conservative does not necessarily mean being anti-labor. (Z)

Today's Presidential Polls

The blue wall is shaky, it would seem, while the Sun Belt is downright grim. That said, it's early, and we don't believe that the numbers out of Florida, in particular, are yet reflecting the impact of the abortion law. (Z)

State	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Start	End	Pollster
Florida	42%	50%	Apr 15	Apr 17	Florida Atlantic U.
Georgia	45%	51%	Apr 11	Apr 16	Beacon + Shaw for Fox
Michigan	46%	49%	Apr 11	Apr 16	Beacon + Shaw for Fox
Pennsylvania	48%	48%	Apr 11	Apr 16	Beacon + Shaw for Fox
Wisconsin	48%	48%	Apr 11	Apr 16	Beacon + Shaw for Fox

Click on a state name for a graph of its polling history.

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