Note: Here we go. We are starting to track the Electoral College today, and, no, the map is not an April Fools' joke. If the election were held today, Donald Trump would probably win. Keep in mind that all the states with a white center are statistical ties and could go either way. Also, for the gazillionth time, in politics, a week is a long time. For the 20 states and D.C. which have not been polled in 2024, we are (temporarily) using the 2020 election results. None of these are at all swingy. Who would want to pay for a poll of Illinois or Wyoming? As usual, you can mouseover a state to see the source of polls that led to the color and also the electoral history back to 1992. If you click on a state, you can see all the polls. You can also view or download all the data using the link "Downloadable polling data" above the map.

Dealing with the third parties is tricky. We know from experience that early on, many people want to send a message and tell the pollsters they are angry and will vote third-party, so take that major-party candidates. In the end, relatively few of them actually do. Consequently, we are including only the head-to-head polls where the respondent had to choose between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Only if the pollster didn't ask that question do we use the question in which the minor parties were included. One thing to watch for is whether either candidate is above 50%. A poll with 46% vs. 43% or so doesn't mean much because too many voters are still really undecided or are playing games with the pollsters. For example, there has been only one poll in Maine and it shows Trump at 38% and Biden at 32%. That means 30% are undecided or playing games with the pollster. Take this with a pound of salt.

The tipping-point page is a good way to see where the real battles need to be fought. It is updated automatically every day. For example, today, the easiest way for Biden to get to 270 EVs is to win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Michigan. This gets him to 272. If Trump wins all the states from the bottom up to and including Michigan, he still gets 281 EVs and wins. In other words, he can afford to lose Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, the three states where his lead is the smallest.

We will start tracking the Senate later this year. Right now, we don't even know the candidates in a number of states.

Switching modes is always tricky. If you see any (software) bugs, please let us know.

Biden and Trump Issue Messages for Easter

Yesterday was Easter, the holiest day in the Christian calendar. To celebrate it, both Joe Biden and Donald Trump issued messages. See if you can tell who wrote each one. Here is the first one:

My wife and I send our warmest wishes to Christians around the world celebrating Easter Sunday. Easter reminds us of the power of hope and the promise of Christ's Resurrection. As we gather with loved ones, we remember Jesus' sacrifice. We pray for one another and cherish the blessing of the dawn of new possibilities. And with wars and conflict taking a toll on innocent lives around the world, we renew our commitment to work for peace, security, and dignity for all people.

And here is the second one:

HAPPY EASTER TO ALL ... INCLUDING THOSE MANY PEOPLE I COMPLETELY & TOTALLY DESPISE BECAUSE THEY WANT TO DESTROY AMERICA.

Answer is at the bottom of the page. But here is a hint: Biden is a devout Catholic who goes to mass regularly. Trump's only use for churches is to use them as a backdrop for photo ops upon occasion, and also to sell Bibles.

As an aside, Axios published this map yesterday showing the percentage of people who rarely or never attend religious services. It is based on a survey of over 71,000 U.S. households:

As you can see, the entire South except Florida is a huge block where fewer than 45% of the population avoid religious services. On the other hand, the West Coast, New England, and Alaska have the most people not interested in religious services. In Alaska, the difficulty of getting there could be an issue, especially in the winter. In the West Coast and New England, by contrast, the reason is that the people there are godless heathens. At least, that's what we heard.

What strikes us immediately is the correlation between interest in religion and political conservatism, and vice-versa. The redder the state, the more likely people attend religious services. Of course, correlation isn't causation. Do people vote Republican because the leader of their church tells them to, or do Republicans naturally seek out churches to find like-minded souls?

The Pew survey that led to the map also asked people about religion's role in public life. More than three-quarters said it is shrinking. Many were unhappy about that. This is just another bit of evidence about why rural areas, which tend to be more religious than urban areas, vote Republican: They feel their lifestyle, which includes going to church, is no longer seen as "normal," and they are fearful about the future. Republicans espouse "traditional" values and claim they can stop the tide, so they attract people who want to at least try. But as King Canute supposedly demonstrated, that is easier said than done. (V)

Biden's New Strategy: Mock Trump

Joe Biden has changed his reelection strategy. In addition to talking about his achievements, he is going to hit Trump where it really hurts him: Make him look weak or like a buffoon. That really gets under Trump's skin in a way that calling him an autocrat does not.

For example, at the (ex-)presidential extravaganza at Radio City Music Hall last week, Biden made a joke saying he once challenged Trump to a round of golf and was willing to spot him three strokes if Trump could carry his own bag. He also recently quipped: "The other day a defeated man who was crushed by debt approached me." He said he told the man: "I'm sorry Donald, I can't help you." Biden also has said the U.S. "deserves better than a feeble, confused, and tired Donald Trump." Some of Biden's ads also make Trump look foolish. Here is a split-screen one showing Biden acting presidential and Trump playing golf:

Most of the one-liners Biden has thrown out recently were his own invention. This makes them more authentic and relatable than something produced by some clever recent English major working on his ad team. Biden has also been referring to Trump as a "loser" recently, something that makes Trump's blood boil. One of Biden's advisers said of Biden: "He has Donald Trump read like a book, and it's fun to watch."

One point of the mocking is to get people to laugh at Trump. People tend not to vote for people they are making fun of. But there is another reason as well. When Trump gets really irritated, he tends to lash out and say things he hasn't thought out well (or at all). Sometimes these are actually pretty damaging and could reappear in Biden ads later on. In fact, some of Biden's ads now feature... only Trump. For example, how about this ad aimed at trying to convince supporters of Nikki Haley not to vote for Trump:

The entire ad depicts Trump dissing Haley. Biden is not in the ad at all. It looks more and more like Biden is really going to take the gloves off and go after Trump in a much nastier way than he did last time, but it could be effective, both with the voters and causing Trump to make an unforced error.

Biden is not the only one trying to make Trump look foolish. The Lincoln Project is still up and running. Here is a recent ad it made.

The Lincoln Project's website is at lincolnproject.us. Since it started in 2020, the group has made over 900 videos and is still pumping them out at a high rate (e.g., six in March and 11 in February). So it looks like this is going to be a much nastier (and perhaps funnier) campaign than 2020. (V)

Biden Has Not Contacted Anti-Trump Republicans

So far, Joe Biden has failed to follow a basic rule of politics: The enemy of my enemy is my friend. The minute Chris Christie told the No Labels people "No thanks, I'm not going to help elect Donald Trump," Biden should have been on the phone with him offering Christie a prime-time speaking slot at the Democratic National Convention so he could share his thoughts about Trump with the entire world. He could have also thrown in an ambassadorship to Italy (Christie's mother has Italian heritage) if Biden won. Biden didn't do that.

He also hasn't approached any of the anti-Trump Republican senators for an endorsement, including Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Mitt Romney (R-UT). Maine and Alaska are not fiercely partisan states and Romney is retiring, so they all might have done it. Sure, they could do it without being prompted, but they haven't, and Biden knows them all well. Romney, in particular, is surely very annoyed with Trump on account of how he dumped niece Ronna, despite her having done everything Trump asked of her for years. Maybe Biden is bidin' his time, but waiting until September to ask seems somewhat insulting, like the senators' endorsement doesn't really matter. He could, of course, ask now, with the announcement coming in September when more people are paying attention. But Politico's politics bureau chief, Jonathan Martin, has contacted them all and confirmed that Biden has not reached out to them. Very strange for a guy who puts personal relationships above all else. (V)

Fani Willis Will Take over Trump's Case Herself

Donald Trump has appealed the ruling by Judge Scott McAfee, the one that said that Fulton County DA Fani Willis can remain on the Georgia RICO case provided that her former boyfriend, Nathan Wade, resign from the case (which Wade did). It probably wasn't that painful to go for him since he earlier said that he was making more money in private practice than working for the state of Georgia. There is no reason to think the appeals court will overrule McAfee since although entangling professional business and romance is a bit icky, it doesn't violate the state's strict ethics laws. Also, since Wade has no experience as a prosecutor, Trump can't claim that having Wade on the prosecution team somehow put Trump at an unfair disadvantage. Actually, Trump would have been better off with Wade than with some experienced prosecutor from Willis' office.

Of course, and as usual, Trump doesn't really care if he wins or loses the appeal. He is merely stalling for time, hoping to move the trial beyond the election. Maybe he thought that Willis would have to find a new lead prosecutor and it would take months for that person to get up to speed. Oops. Bad bet. Willis has decided to be the lead prosecutor herself. She has plenty of experience handling complex RICO cases, whereas Wade has none. So Trump's attempt to get rid of Wade and/or Willis has backfired. Instead of a prosecutor (Wade) whose actual expertise is in personal injuries, contracts, divorces, and criminal defense, Trump is going to get a battle-tested expert in RICO law with years of experience as a prosecutor.

Since Willis has been on the case since the beginning, she doesn't need to get up to speed. She is already going 100 MPH. She is now working on the nuts and bolts of the trial strategy, including who to call as witnesses, which documents to present, and how she will present her case to the jury. She is also thinking about how to make it clear to the jurors that the future of democracy is at stake in this case, which makes it more abstract than a murder or gang prosecution case.

She is also thinking closely about what her role will be in the trial. She is considering making the opening statements herself and also doing the cross examination of the witnesses herself. She has almost 20 years' experience as an assistant DA or DA and has successfully prosecuted RICO cases before. In 2015, she handled a case in which 12 educators were accused of correcting answers on standardized tests to make their school look better. She got convictions in 11 of the cases. File this one under: "Be careful what you wish for; you might get it." (V)

Biden Is Betting Big on Intel

One of Joe Biden's campaign pitches is that he brought manufacturing jobs back to America from China. The poster child for this pitch is the Intel Corporation, which is planning to invest a staggering $100 billion in new chip-making factories in Ohio and Arizona (the latter being a key swing state, of course). Intel will get $8.5 billion in direct subsidies and $25 billion in tax breaks, which make the new plants economically viable for the company.

Construction for the Ohio plant, which will make the high-performance chips needed for AI as well as other applications, has already started. A photo of the construction site is shown below. The plant is located in Licking County, about 12 miles northeast of Columbus. The key ingredients in making chips are: (1) sand and (2) brainpower. Sand (silicon) is easy to find in lots of places, but the reason for choosing this location is its proximity to the 66,000-student Ohio State University. Ohio State is an excellent school and graduates about 2,200 engineering students per year. It may not be as good as MIT or Stanford, but they don't produce as many students per year and large tracts of land are much cheaper in the middle of Ohio than in Cambridge or Palo Alto.

Can Biden win Ohio? Probably not, but there is something else going on here. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) has a tough reelection race this year and Brown is surely going to tell the voters that he played a role in getting Intel to pick Ohio (but all the senators probably made pitches for their states, except maybe those from Alaska and Hawaii).

The chip factory won't be up and running for years, but as you can see above, construction is well underway, which means that many construction workers have already been hired and are at work. That alone is something Biden and Brown can use in their campaigns. Besides the jobs, the CHIPS Act has other consequences. Modern weaponry is full of advanced chips. They guide missiles of all kinds, are used in advanced drones, and much more. Being dependent on even Taiwan is a huge security problem. If China were to conquer Taiwan and stop it from exporting advanced chips, the U.S. defense industry would be up a tree. Being able to buy chips made in Ohio or Arizona would make the Pentagon much happier. Biden is highly dependent on Intel getting everything to work, but the company, which used to be #1 in the world and has slipped, is clearly motivated to get moving again and the money from the CHIPS Act that Biden signed will certainly help. (V)

Arizona Is Close to Indicting the Fake Electors

One of the top projects for Arizona AG Kris Mayes (D), who has been on the job for a bit over a year now, has been going after Donald Trump's slate of fake electors. She is getting close. She has taken the unusual step of hauling them all in front of a grand jury to testify. They all took the Fifth Amendment and refused to answer any questions. Prosecutors typically don't put suspects before a grand jury because it could bias the grand jury members against them, especially when they clam up and won't answer any questions. Members may be secretly thinking: "If they are innocent, why don't they just answer all the questions honestly?"

Not all defense lawyers think this was a good move. Omer Gurion, who has defended other people facing the Arizona AG, said: "I would say this is highly unusual. Is it permissible? Yes. Is it a good idea? Definitely not." Most of the time, when targets tell prosecutors in advance that they plan to plead the Fifth, they are excused. So why did Mayes do this? She is not explaining, but one possibility is to scare the daylights out of the fake electors and get at least one of them to flip and incriminate all the others in return for a very light sentence, like 50 hours of community service.

The fake electors include some big fish, such as former state GOP chair Kelli Ward and two current state senators, Jake Hoffman and Anthony Kern. They are not likely to flip, but some of the minor players might.

Because forcing the targets to testify is so unusual, it might conceivably be grounds to try to get the likely indictment thrown out. On the other hand, it is definitely legal, just very aggressive. And it might yet work if one of the fake electors decided to save his or her neck by ratting out all the others. Who said psychological warfare was limited to military operations? (V)

The Arizona Republican Party Has Been Self-Decimated

Arizona is one of the swingiest swing states. Expect lots of news coverage about it until Nov. 5. Needless to say, because it swings so much, both parties want to make sure they have a good ground operation there. Normally, it is the state parties that run the ground war and sometimes the air war, because they have detailed knowledge of the state, which areas are solid for them, which swing, and which are hopeless. Consequently, what is going on with the Arizona Republican Party is important.

In Feb. 2020, near the start of the 2020 campaign, the Arizona GOP state party had over 60 people on the payroll. This February, it had 6 people on the payroll. This is a direct result of massive infighting within the party between the MAGA wing and the John McCain wing. That came to a head when Kari Lake called then-chairman Jeff DeWit, recorded the call, and then blackmailed him into resigning. She said he either had to fall in line behind her and Trump or get out or she would release some damaging material. He decided to quit. As a consequence, the party devolved into chaos. Oh, and it is also broke. Now Lake owns what's left of the party machine and has to rebuild it from scratch in her image. She doesn't take prisoners. It's her way or the highway. She sees RINOs, not the Democrats, as the enemy.

The Trump campaign is apparently aware of this and has hired Trump's own state director, Pat Aquilina, outside the state party and is paying him from the national campaign budget. Is all this an indication that the Republicans don't have their act together in Arizona? It could be. Another indication is a remark from senior Trump campaign adviser Chris LaCivita, who said: "By combining forces and operations, the Trump campaign and RNC are deploying operations that are fueled by passionate volunteers who care about saving America and firing Joe Biden." That's an admission that they don't have much paid staff in the state and may not for a while. While getting volunteers to go door-to-door is great, the party leadership can't be run by amateurs who know nothing about where to deploy resources and how to win elections. Will Trump show up, bang heads together, and get everyone on the same page? Maybe, but he hasn't visited the state this year.

In contrast, the Democratic state party has 15 paid employees and another 19 paid campaign workers in eight offices run by the Biden campaign. Clearly the Democrats are in much better shape on the ground and are busy fighting the Republicans, not each other. (V)

Israeli Supreme Court Orders Support for Torah Students to Stop

This item is really inside baseball, but it could affect the U.S. presidential election. Many people, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), believe that a huge obstacle to peace in the Middle East is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Schumer has openly called for new elections in Israel so the Israelis can dump Netanyahu. That didn't go over so well with Netanyahu, who is under indictment for corruption and sees staying in power as a way to avoid prison. In other countries, people don't seek power to avoid prison. Oh wait, maybe there are some others. Gotta check with the staff carceral affairs consultant.

Anyway, ultra-orthodox Jewish students in Israel who go to yeshivas (religious schools) and spend the entire day studying the Torah (Genesis, Exodus, Leviticus, Numbers, and Deuteronomy—for Christians, the first five books of the Old Testament) have historically been exempt from the military draft. In 2017, the Israeli Supreme Court ruled that these exemptions are discriminatory and illegal. There has been in-fighting about this ever since. The Court ordered the government to come up with a plan for drafting the students. The deadline for submitting the plan was yesterday. There is no plan. In addition, the Court ordered the monthly subsidies the Torah students get from the government to stop today.

These developments are a massive headache for Netanyahu. Seventy percent of Israelis want to end the exemptions and have the yeshiva students serve in the army, like all other young Israelis, both male and female. The ultra-orthodox see conscription as a threat to their way of life since it will expose young men to the world outside their yeshivas and communities, something about which they know nothing. The current coalition has 64 of the 120 seats in the parliament. The parties in the coalition are split on the exemption. Some insist on drafting the yeshiva students, especially since the army needs more soldiers in the middle of a war, while the ultra-orthodox parties will pull out of the coalition if the students become subject to the draft. That would force new elections. Polls show that if elections are held now, Netanyahu will lose and cease to be prime minister, which is what Schumer called for.

If the parties in the coalition can't come to an agreement very quickly, the government will fall and there will be new elections. If the opposition gets the majority, there will be a new prime minister, probably one not as right-wing as Netanyahu, and possibly one who could agree to a cease fire now and potentially even a Palestinian state, with financial help and guarantees from Saudi Arabia. This would completely change the situation in the Middle East, so a lot is riding on whether Netanyahu can pull a rabbit out of his kippah. If he can't, and there are new elections resulting in a different government, Joe Biden, whose core expertise is foreign policy, might get the chance to broker a permanent peace in the region. If he could help end 75 years of war there, that would surely boost his campaign, and possibly even attract some evangelical voters, who believe that Jesus will only return to Earth if there is a Jewish state in Israel. There are a lot of "ifs" here, but getting rid of Netanyahu would be a first step. (V)

Judge Rules against New Jersey Ballot Design

Remember the famous (and very confusing) butterfly ballot used in Florida in 2000, which had thousands of people who hated Pat Buchanan voting for him without realizing it? Here it is as a refresher:

Many Democratic voters saw that the Republicans were listed first in the left hand column and the Democrats were listed second. They wanted to vote for the Democrat, Al Gore, so they punched out the second circle in the middle of the ballot, which we have circled in red. But actually, that was a vote for Pat Buchanan, who most of them despised. The number of people who made this mistake was far more than the 537 votes by which George W. Bush won the state. Thus ballot design swung a presidential election. The article linked in the previous sentence contains a map that proves this beyond any doubt. It shows that Buchanan did vastly better in Palm Beach County, which used the butterfly ballot, than in the adjacent counties, which did not. Also, Buchanan did vastly better on Election Day than with Palm Beach absentee voters, who were not presented with the butterfly ballot.

Since then, most states use a block layout, with one block per office. On top of the block is the name of the office, followed by the names of all the candidates. "Most states" actually means "all states except New Jersey." That state has what is called a "county line ballot." Here is an example of a New Jersey Democratic primary ballot:

The left-hand column lists all the candidates the county Democratic Party leader supports. All the other candidates are randomly spread around the other columns, with different offices mixed at random. Many voters don't understand this and just vote for the county chairman's choices in column 1. This is machine politics at its worst.

On Friday, Federal judge Zahid Quraishi struck down this system and ordered the state to use block ballots for the upcoming Democratic primary. The ruling did not apply to the Republican primary because it was Democrats who brought the lawsuit. This is a huge blow to the power of the party bosses. Boss Tweed is probably rolling over in his grave, even though he wasn't from New Jersey. Rep. Andy Kim (D-NJ), who is virtually certain to be the next senator from New Jersey, campaigned for this change, although he wanted the legislative branch to do it, not the judicial branch. The party bosses will surely appeal the ruling, but the old-style ballot is hard to defend, especially since no other state uses it.

Until Tammy Murphy dropped out, this was a big issue because, being the governor's wife, she had the support of the party bosses and would be in the favored first column. But Kim had so much grassroots support, Murphy knew she couldn't win and gave up. With a normal ballot, it is a near certainty that Kim will win the Democratic primary and then cruise to election easily. (V)

The Baltimore Bridge Collapse Has a Bright Side, For Some

When a cargo ship rammed the Francis Scott Key bridge in Baltimore, six people died and it will take $2 billion and 5 years to repair the damage. Meanwhile, I-695, which runs around Baltimore, is severed and the port of Baltimore will take a big hit. Could anything good come of this accident?

Well, the new bridge across the Patapsco River (and all new bridges everywhere) will be built with protective "islands" (called "dolphins") around the bridge supports to help prevent this kind of accident from happening again. But there is also some political fallout. The two people who are going to be handling the consequences of the accident both happen to be up-and-coming young Democrats, Gov. Wes Moore (D-MD), who is 45, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who is 42. If they do a good job handling the fallout from the collision, that could give either or both a national profile and possibly propel either one to higher office in the coming years. Both have been mentioned as potential presidential or vice-presidential candidates in 2028 or 2032.

Buttigieg is the better known of the two, having run for president in 2020. He ran a good campaign and was seen then as a rising star. As transportation secretary, he is notable for his ability to handle interviews well and hit back hard at Republican criticism of the administration. This incident could make him the face of the administration in dealing with the crisis. If he does well, that could boost his 2028 chances against better-known candidates like Govs. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) and Gavin Newsom (D-CA).

Moore was basically unknown until he ran for governor and even now he is largely unknown outside Maryland. This is his chance to be in the national spotlight. If he performs well under pressure—for example, by getting construction of a new bridge going quickly and managing to keep the Port of Baltimore operating at full capacity—he could acquire the image of a guy who can get things done. That could be handy in 2028. He's probably not up to beating Newsom, Whitmer, and Buttigieg for the top slot in 2028, but he could be a plausible vice-presidential candidate, especially on a Whitmer ticket, since Newsom and Buttigieg would be under a lot of pressure to pick a woman as #2. (V)

Boebert Lucks Out

The sudden resignation from Congress by former representative Ken Buck of Colorado triggered a special election to fill out the rest of Buck's term. Colorado law states that for special elections, the parties pick their candidates. There are no primaries. Last Thursday, the Colorado Republican Party picked Greg Lopez, the former mayor of Parker, CO, as their nominee. It doesn't matter who the Democratic Party picks because the district, CO-04, is R+13, so Lopez will win the June special election no matter who the Democrats pick.

If he had faced a competitive primary or competitive general election, Lopez might not have been an ideal candidate. He has had multiple run-ins with the police in the past, including one involving domestic violence against his wife, and a DUI. Since there is no primary and CO-04 is R+13, he can already add: "Served in Congress for 6 months" to his resume.

On the same date as the special election, there will be primaries for the regular election for the 2-year term starting in January. Lopez said he will not be a candidate for a full term. This is good news for Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO). She currently represents CO-03, where she would face a serious Democrat who almost beat her in 2022, so she switched to CO-04, where she is not well known. If Lopez had said he will also compete in the primary for a full term, he might have been the favorite due to the extra publicity he is getting now. (V)

Answer to quiz above. The first quote is from Biden, the second is from Trump. Surprise!

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