Jordan Apparently Unaware "Whip" Is Just a Metaphor

When Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) was chosen as speaker-designate by the House Republican Conference on Friday, he sent his colleagues home so he could work on whipping the 50 or so votes he needs to actually become Speaker. And when he said "whipping," it would seem that he meant it.

That's right. Displaying that Jordan/Freedom Caucus style that we've all come to love, the wannabe speaker has decided that persuasion and horse trading are for losers. And so, he and his allies have adopted an approach best described as "bullying." Team Jordan is siccing its right-wing media allies on the holdouts, in an effort to browbeat them into compliance. The would-be speaker has also arranged for his colleagues' office phone numbers to be disseminated widely, so that Trumpy citizens can leave vast numbers of demanding/threatening messages.

On one hand, this is very different from the approach employed by Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA). That approach didn't work, so maybe... this will? On the other hand, in our experience, this kind of behavior is an excellent way to turn a "no" into a rock-solid, concrete, Jesus himself couldn't change my mind "Hell, no." At least one member of the House Republican Conference, namely Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX), is in agreement, describing Jordan's approach as the "dumbest thing you can do."

Note that Crenshaw is saying that as someone who plans to vote for Jordan for the speakership. One might think that a military veteran who lost his eye in the service of his country would be a wee bit peeved that the Ohioan tried to illegally overturn the 2020 election results, and thus to effectively overthrow the government. And, if one did think that, one would be wrong. Crenshaw appeared on CNN yesterday and said if he was going to hold that against Jordan, he'd have to turn his back on the majority of the Republican conference. There's a lot of truth in that, we suppose.

Meanwhile, speaking off the record, a Republican member of the House told CNN that there are still at least 40 "no" votes on Jordan, including 20 "hard no" votes. The general sentiment among this cadre, according to this unnamed member, is "We cannot let the small group dictate to the whole group. They want a minority of the majority to dictate and as a red-blooded American I refuse to be a victim."

If Jordan can whittle down the opposition to, say, 10 Republican members, then there will be enormous pressure on those 10 to cave. That said, this is a very big "if." And even then, there's no guarantee that the holdouts will yield. It's embarrassing to the party to flail around like this, but it could (and probably would) be far worse if Jordan landed the speakership and then pulled a bunch of shenanigans at the height of election season next year. (Z)

Q3 Fundraising Numbers Are Rolling In...

The reporting deadline for Q3 fundraising/spending is today, and so the presidential campaigns that did well are hustling to get the good news out a little early. That includes the Biden campaign, which is crowing that the Biden/Harris + DNC take of $71 million was far greater than any other candidate's take, including $46 million for Donald Trump, $15 million for Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and $11 million for Nikki Haley. In addition, Biden/Harris has far more cash on hand, $91 million, than Trump ($38 million), DeSantis ($14 million), or Haley ($12 million).

Needless to say, when it comes to money, more is better than less. And there was other good news for Biden, including that the campaign added 240,000 new donors, that 97% of the donations were under $200, and that one-third of the total haul came from donors who gave less than $40. The campaign interprets that as a sign of enthusiasm, which it might be. What you can definitely say is that Biden-Harris has a lot of supporters it can hit up again and again.

That said, there are fewer sunshine and rainbows here than it might seem. In the equivalent quarter in 2019, then-incumbent Trump took in $125 million. And in the equivalent quarter in 2011, Barack Obama took in $70 million, which is about $95 million in 2023 dollars. So, Biden would seem to be trailing both of those men in terms of enthusiasm. On the other hand, Trump lost the 2020 election bigly, which is a reminder that would-be presidents need a large number of mildly supportive voters more than they need a smaller cadre of fanatics. Those fellows who spend 6 hours driving up and down the freeway waving Trump flags still only get one vote each.

As to cash on hand, it's rather easier to maintain a fat bank account when one isn't really campaigning. Biden/Harris finally shifted into campaign mode this month, whereas all the other wannabe presidents have been going full-bore since the start of summer, so let's see where the cash-on-hand sits at the end of Q4 (those reports are due January 15, 2024). Biden will probably still be on the top of the hill, but his lead won't be so substantial. (Z)

...And the Pence Campaign Has Entered Its Death Spiral

Many of the people running for president in 2024 had fundraising hauls that were somewhere between "not bad" and "pretty good." And then there is former vice president Mike Pence, whose campaign reported just $3.3 million in donations. It's also down to about $1 million cash on hand, with about $650,000 in debt. That means that Pence 2024 is only about $350,000 above water, and it would be even worse than that if Pence hadn't written the campaign a check for $150,000. It's also possible that some meaningful chunk of his money-on-hand came from max donors who gave $6,600. If so, then $3,300/donor can't be used for the primaries.

In short, Pence doesn't have the money to run even a shoestring campaign. The cash-saving triage has already begun; this weekend, Pence announced that he would not compete in the Nevada caucus, and instead would enter the state's primary. The good news about the primary is that it doesn't demand a seven-figure investment in ground game. The bad news is that it's purely symbolic, as the state's Republican delegates will be awarded to the caucus winner.

Pence has not yet qualified for the next Republican debate; he's got the polls, but not the correct number of donors. That can probably be overcome, even if the former VP doesn't have the scratch to hand out $20 gift cards to people who donate a buck. However, if the RNC continues with the same general approach, he's likely to have big trouble with both the correct number of donors and with the correct polling results for debate #4. The criteria haven't been announced, but they will likely be something like 100,000 unique donors, and 6% in half a dozen polls. Pence is having trouble getting to 70,000 donors, much less 100,000, and he's generally polling at about 4%.

As you might guess, we're thinking he'll hold on until he fails to make a debate stage, and then he'll have to bow to reality. Debate #3 is on November 8, while debate #4 hasn't been announced yet, but will probably be in mid-December. So, the Republican field might well be Pence-less by Christmas. (Z)

Biden Reminds Iran of the Other Half of "Speak Softly"

Joe Biden is not given over to bluster, like some presidents are. However, he has clearly studied his Theodore Roosevelt, and knows that diplomatic talk works best if your adversaries know you have other options, should they become necessary.

At the moment, as the world sorts out exactly what happened in Israel, and which nations might have been behind the attack, Biden has resisted the temptation to excoriate Iran. That might play well on TV, and there might be other 2024 presidential contenders who are unable to resist that temptation, but antagonizing the Iranians needlessly adds further gunpowder to a situation that's already engulfed in flames.

At the same time, there is considerable risk that now that Hamas has lit the fuse, other Middle Eastern nations will seize this opportunity to take a shot at Israel. It has happened before... multiple times. And the likeliest culprits are Iran and Hezbollah (basically the Lebanese equivalent of Hamas). Here's a map of the Middle East:

As you can see, if Iran and Hezbollah were to attack or invade Israel, that attack would almost certainly come from the North. Yes, they could try something from the south, via the Red Sea, but that would require naval resources those actors don't really have. Further, the U.S. has a fair bit of firepower stationed in Saudi Arabia, while Egypt is also keeping its eyes and ears open. Though it's not clear who the Egyptians would call if they did see something; would they take all the trouble of dialing the White House, or would they just use speed dial and warn Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ)?

The bottom line is that the northern border of Israel is the potential weak link. And so, as soon as the Hamas attack became known, Biden ordered one of the United States' 11 aircraft carriers—the U.S.S. Gerald R. Ford—to the Eastern Mediterranean. And yesterday, he sent a second carrier, the U.S.S. Dwight D. Eisenhower. That's two big ships named after World War II-veteran presidents for the price of one.

Both aircraft carriers are, of course, part of aircraft carrier groups, which means that the total U.S. presence will total 11 ships (6 in the Eisenhower group; 5 in the Ford group). This is an enormous amount of firepower; there are no countries (other than the U.S.) that have more than two carriers, and there are only five countries (other than the U.S.) that have that many: China, India, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom. The message, not unlike the 6'6", 330-pound bouncer standing with his arms crossed at the door of the bar, is "Just try it." Speak softly and carry a big stick, indeed. (Z)

Trump Legal News: Money and Corruption

Everything that King Midas touched turned to gold. And everything Donald Trump touches, it seems, turns to... well, whatever things turn into when they are hopelessly corrupted. We'll go with "soot," but you can feel free to sub in some other undesirable commodity that starts with "s" and ends with "t."

There was some Trump legal news late last week that we waited to write about because it involves a certain amount of... opinion, for lack of a better description. But we are now persuaded that the early reporting was justified. So, we'll first pass along that on Thursday, in the ongoing New York trial, former Trump CFO Allen Weisselberg was on the stand and asserted that he took very little interest in the valuation of Trump's penthouse in Trump Tower, as it was a small portion of the asset portfolio.

There is one small problem with this claim from Weisselberg: it appears to be an outright lie. Or, to be more precise, perjury. While the trial was on its lunch break, Forbes published a piece it had been working on, one that makes very clear that Weisselberg often had a great deal of interest in the value of the penthouse, taking steps to either make it more or less valuable depending to whom he was talking. The Forbes article lays out the evidence, which includes documents in possession of the magazine's staff.

The former CFO did not re-take the stand after lunch, but Justice Arthur Engoron said he could be recalled by either set of attorneys. We suspect that the plaintiffs will be having a chat with the folks at Forbes so they can get a copy of those documents. Weisselberg, for his part, could be looking at another visit to the graybar hotel. And it does not help Trump's case if one of his primary advocates proves to be untrustworthy and unreliable.

Meanwhile, down in Miami, Judge Aileen Cannon finally got around to holding the hearing about potential conflicts of interest when it comes to one attorney representing multiple defendants in the Mar-a-Lago documents case. And about halfway through the hearing, she got angry with the prosecution and adjourned. So it is that a question that could well have been resolved weeks ago will linger for at least another week, or two, or three.

It struck us as very unlikely that pros like the lawyers on Jack Smith's team would be guilty of an offense worthy of shutting down a hearing. Further, Cannon has already engaged in behavior that looks an awful lot like foot-dragging. That said, we are not experts in federal criminal procedure, so we held off to wait for the opinions of people who know better than we do. And now, several of them have weighed in (see here or here for examples) and opined that Cannon's behavior is irregular. Given her other decisions, it gets harder and harder to avoid the conclusion that she's trying to drag things out without making it look like she's dragging things out.

That said, it is Trump's bad luck that he is under indictment in three other jurisdictions. And so, one very friendly judge, if that is what Cannon is, will not be enough, by herself, to save his bacon. (Z)

Louisiana Veers Rightward...

Louisiana held its jungle primaries this weekend, and the big result is that Attorney General Jeff Landry (R) took 51.6% of the vote in the race to replace term-limited Gov. John Bel Edwards (D). This eliminates the need for a runoff, and so Landry will be the next governor of the Bayou State.

The race for lieutenant governor was even more lopsided, as Lt. Gov. William Nungesser (R) was reelected with 65.5% of the vote. The two contests at the top of the ballot were such blowouts, it's a reminder that Edwards' two gubernatorial victories were enormous feats of political skill. He should really be someone whose name is bandied about for federal office—say, when the seat held by Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) is up in 2026. But we guess that "conservative enough to get elected in Louisiana" means that the national Democratic Party can't afford to hug Edwards too close.

If there was any good news for Democrats in this weekend's elections, it's that several statewide offices—Attorney General, Secretary of State, Treasurer—will go to runoffs. The Republican will be the favorite in all cases, but the Democrats at least have a puncher's chance. If one of them can win, then that person will be the favorite to try to do what Edwards did, and claim the governor's mansion for the blue team in 2027 (or to run for Cassidy's Senate seat in 2026).

Landry's victory means that, as of January of next year, the only former Confederate State to have a Democratic governor will be North Carolina (keeping in mind that Kentucky was not a Confederate State). So, in a manner of speaking, the Force is (almost) in balance once again. (Z)

...And So Does New Zealand...

Louisiana wasn't the only place where voters headed to the polls on Saturday. Half a world away, it was time for New Zealanders to pick a new parliament and with it, a potential new leader. As it turns out, it was time for a change, as the governing liberal majority took a thrashing, while the conservatives won a comfortable victory. The result is that the nation's new prime minister will be Christopher Luxon.

The 53-year-old Luxon spent most of his career in the private sector, most notably as CEO of Air New Zealand for 7 years. He was first elected to Parliament in October 2020, became leader of the opposition a little over a year later, and now he's PM. So, it's been a meteoric rise. He is an evangelical and he is opposed to taxes, abortion, and welfare. In other words, if he was an American, he wouldn't have a hard time deciding which party to join.

Labour's big loss was not a big surprise. The party lost its leader several months back, when Jacinda Ardern stepped down due to exhaustion. There was also much resentment of the strong anti-COVID measures imposed by the government during the pandemic. Add that to certain evergreen issues like crime, inflation and government waste, and Luxon had an easy and obvious recipe for victory. And now, New Zealand's problems are his problems, and everyone will get to see how he does when he has to govern, as opposed to just griping. Sometimes these businessmen-turned-politicians don't work out too well, as you might have heard. (Z)

...But Not Poland (Maybe)

While folks in Louisiana and New Zealand voted on Saturday, the good people of Poland cast their ballots on Sunday. We could have sworn that Poland is overwhelmingly Catholic, and that Catholics are supposed to be busy with other things on Sundays, but maybe we were misinformed.

For the last 8 years, the country has been led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski and his far-right Law and Justice Party (LJP). The LJP has stacked the courts with friendly judges, imposed strict limits on abortion, cracked down on LGBTQ rights, tried to silence media critics and pursued an isolationist-leaning foreign policy. Perhaps this platform sounds familiar.

The main challenger in Sunday's election was former prime minister Donald Tusk of the Civic Platform (CP), who said this election was about the future of democracy. That's right, a former national leader named Donald T. is the country's best hope for saving democracy. That's not a sentence you write every day. In any case, Tusk and the CP are right-wing, just not as far right as LJP. And note that we are using English-language acronyms because the Polish-language acronym for LJP is very close to the thing that the vice presidency is not worth a warm bucket of.

It is actually going to take a while for the results to be finalized, but exit polls suggest that the LJP lost its comfortable majority, and will end up with about 37% of the seats in the Polish Parliament. The CP will end up with about 32%. However, the other 31% of the seats are largely going to parties more likely to work with CP than with LJP. So, it is more likely than not that Tusk will regain the PM job. If so, then it means all three notable elections this weekend ended up being "throw the bums out" elections. (Z)

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