This page contains the current averages for each state for the presidential race calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (RCP, 538, HP, TPM, etc.) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.
State | Democrat | Dem % | Republican | GOP % | Lead | End date |
Alabama | Biden | 37% | Trump | 62% | +25% | Nov 03 |
Alaska | Biden | 43% | Trump | 54% | +11% | Nov 03 |
Arizona | Biden | 50% | Trump | 49% | +1% | Nov 03 |
Arkansas | Biden | 35% | Trump | 63% | +28% | Nov 03 |
California | Biden | 64% | Trump | 34% | +30% | Nov 03 |
Colorado | Biden | 52% | Trump | 40% | +12% | Nov 03 |
Connecticut | Biden | 59% | Trump | 39% | +20% | Nov 03 |
D.C. | Biden | 92% | Trump | 5% | +87% | Nov 03 |
Delaware | Biden | 59% | Trump | 40% | +19% | Nov 03 |
Florida | Biden | 48% | Trump | 51% | +3% | Nov 03 |
Georgia | Biden | 50% | Trump | 49% | +1% | Nov 03 |
Hawaii | Biden | 65% | Trump | 34% | +31% | Nov 03 |
Idaho | Biden | 33% | Trump | 64% | +31% | Nov 03 |
Illinois | Biden | 57% | Trump | 41% | +16% | Nov 03 |
Indiana | Biden | 41% | Trump | 57% | +16% | Nov 03 |
Iowa | Biden | 45% | Trump | 53% | +8% | Nov 03 |
Kansas | Biden | 41% | Trump | 57% | +16% | Nov 03 |
Kentucky | Biden | 36% | Trump | 62% | +26% | Nov 03 |
Louisiana | Biden | 40% | Trump | 59% | +19% | Nov 03 |
Maine | Biden | 53% | Trump | 44% | +9% | Nov 03 |
Maryland | Biden | 65% | Trump | 33% | +32% | Nov 03 |
Massachusetts | Biden | 65% | Trump | 33% | +32% | Nov 03 |
Michigan | Biden | 51% | Trump | 48% | +3% | Nov 03 |
Minnesota | Biden | 53% | Trump | 45% | +8% | Nov 03 |
Mississippi | Biden | 40% | Trump | 59% | +19% | Nov 03 |
Missouri | Biden | 41% | Trump | 57% | +16% | Nov 03 |
Montana | Biden | 40% | Trump | 57% | +17% | Nov 03 |
Nebraska | Biden | 39% | Trump | 59% | +20% | Nov 03 |
Nevada | Biden | 50% | Trump | 48% | +2% | Nov 03 |
New Hampshire | Biden | 53% | Trump | 46% | +7% | Nov 03 |
New Jersey | Biden | 57% | Trump | 41% | +16% | Nov 03 |
New Mexico | Biden | 54% | Trump | 44% | +10% | Nov 03 |
New York | Biden | 61% | Trump | 38% | +23% | Nov 03 |
North Carolina | Biden | 49% | Trump | 50% | +1% | Nov 03 |
North Dakota | Biden | 32% | Trump | 65% | +33% | Nov 03 |
Ohio | Biden | 45% | Trump | 53% | +8% | Nov 03 |
Oklahoma | Biden | 32% | Trump | 65% | +33% | Nov 03 |
Oregon | Biden | 57% | Trump | 40% | +17% | Nov 03 |
Pennsylvania | Biden | 50% | Trump | 49% | +1% | Nov 03 |
Rhode Island | Biden | 60% | Trump | 39% | +21% | Nov 03 |
South Carolina | Biden | 43% | Trump | 55% | +12% | Nov 03 |
South Dakota | Biden | 36% | Trump | 62% | +26% | Nov 03 |
Tennessee | Biden | 37% | Trump | 61% | +24% | Nov 03 |
Texas | Biden | 46% | Trump | 52% | +6% | Nov 03 |
Utah | Biden | 38% | Trump | 58% | +20% | Nov 03 |
Vermont | Biden | 66% | Trump | 31% | +35% | Nov 03 |
Virginia | Biden | 54% | Trump | 44% | +10% | Nov 03 |
Washington | Biden | 58% | Trump | 39% | +19% | Nov 03 |
West Virginia | Biden | 30% | Trump | 69% | +39% | Nov 03 |
Wisconsin | Biden | 50% | Trump | 49% | +1% | Nov 03 |
Wyoming | Biden | 27% | Trump | 70% | +43% | Nov 03 |