Congressional Republicans Embarrass Themselves, Part I: Whistleblower Is a(n Alleged) Hood

We weren't so sure about this story, because it's kind of scurrilous and because the new reporting that broke last week came from that bastion of quality journalism, The New York Post. However, it's all over the place now, so we have to go with it. Gal Luft, who is the "whistleblower" with alleged dirt on Hunter Biden, appears to be so crooked that, well, he should immediately run for Congress in NY-03.

It has been publicly known for several months that Luft was in legal trouble, and that he was a fugitive from justice. Yesterday, however, the Department of Justice unsealed the indictment that it filed back in November of last year. It would seem that when it comes to taking down the Bidens, Luft is no messiah for the Republicans. Nope, he's just a very naughty boy. The charges against him are quite substantial; he's accused of acting as an agent for China without registering, of illegally trafficking in arms (for the benefit of the governments of Libya, United Arab Emirates, and Kenya), of having illegal contact with the nation of Iran, and of perjuring himself. It's a total of eight counts that carry a potential sentence of 100 years.

At this point, we will point out two things that are not related to each other, but that are definitely related to the news about Luft. The first is that, as we've pointed out many times before, the feds don't move ahead with prosecuting people unless they think the case is a slam dunk. Inasmuch as Luft is a fugitive, it would seem that he thinks the case is a slam dunk, too. So, if and when he is arrested, he's not going to get bail, and he's not likely to see the outside of a prison cell again for many, many years.

The second thing to note is that one of the many people who volunteered for the various campaigns of Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) was a woman named Fang Fang, who turns out to have been a Chinese spy. Swalwell did not know at the time, there's no evidence that she got any useful information from him, and as soon as he knew there was something fishy, he went to the FBI and told them everything he knew. Despite his pretty clear lack of culpability for any wrongdoing (and he was formally cleared by the feds), Republicans have had a field day claiming that the Representative is basically Xi Jinping's right-hand man. Well, Luft really does have connections to China (the only question is whether they were illegal). And the Republicans who have held him up as a truth-teller and as the key to unlocking the corruption of the Biden administration knew full well that was the case and did everything they could to ignore or downplay the rather serious problems with him as a witness.

That politicians are sometimes hypocritical, and that the Trumpublicans take that tendency to extremes, is hardly news. Also not surprising is that, at the moment, folks like Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) and Rep. James Comer (R-KY) are whining and moaning about how there's a conspiracy and how the DoJ is actively trying to undermine the GOP's star witness. From where we sit, it would seem that the star witness has done that for himself, without any help at all from the feds.

And that is where we get to the one really newsworthy aspect to this story. The Republicans' narrative about Biden corruption was already on life support, and now it's dead. Luft is not only a shady character, but it's now clear he has multiple motivations to cook up phony stories that please Republicans' ears. First, because Luft himself is a far-right Trumper, and second because he knows he's probably going to get popped one of these days, and it sure would be swell if he could help elect a Republican president and be in a position to ask for a pardon. Nobody is going to take Luft seriously at this point except for the Fox crowd, and they are already safe anti-Biden votes.

Biden has been in politics for 50 years, has been one of the dozen or so most prominent politicians in the country for close to two decades, and has been a major presidential candidate or the sitting president for 4 years. Anyone and everyone who might want to find dirt on him has been looking under every stone for something, over and over and over, and the best they've come up with is completely not credible folks like Luft and Tara Reade. We are going to infer from this that Biden is going to make it to the end of his career without meaningful skeletons being discovered in his closet. And that means that if the Republicans want to reclaim the White House next year, they're going to have to win the election the old-fashioned way, and actually put forward a better option than the President. (Z)

Congressional Republicans Embarrass Themselves, Part II: Tommy Tuberville May Need a Hood

There are many political figures that we'd be happy to never have to write about again. Donald Trump is certainly one of those, and Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) is another. It's going to be a long time before we can shake Trump, obviously, while today marks the second day in a row that we're going to have to talk about Tuberville (sigh), who is making himself toxic even for his fellow Republicans.

Yesterday's item, of course, was about Tuberville's blocking of all military promotions, such that the Marine Corps is now left without a proper commandant. Since we wrote that item, we learned a bit about how this is specifically affecting the military. First, without the ability to appoint and promote new people, high-ranking officers are now left to cover parts or all of multiple jobs. To take an example, Gen. Eric Smith is now acting as both commandant and assistant commandant of the Corps. Second, high-ranking military officers are in high demand in the private sector, where they can command salaries a fair bit higher than what the U.S. government pays. If promotions appear to be held up for the foreseeable future, that's going to push some key officers to head for the exit early, leading to a brain drain.

Moving on to the new news that's not actually so new, Tuberville spent the early part of this week continuing his dalliance with white supremacists. He was on CNN with Kaitlan Collins, and she asked him about his remarks back in May, that some people call them "white supremacists" but Tuberville just calls them "Americans." This should have been an easy question the first time out, 6 weeks ago. And even if it wasn't, Tuberville has had plenty of time to figure out the correct answer. Here's a hint: "I condemn white supremacism and all other forms of racism, which have no place in our military." Note that it took us a grand total of 5 seconds to come up with that, and that's despite the fact that we have never coached a single football game.

Tuberville, however, is absolutely determined to have his cake and to eat it, too. That is to say, he wants the votes of racists, but he also wants the votes of people who oppose racism (or who, at very least, flatter themselves that they oppose racism). So, he returned to his strategy of trying to turn "white supremacist" into a meaningless phrase deployed by woke Democrats. You can read his whole exchange with Collins here, but this remark gives you the gist of it:

My opinion of a white nationalist, if somebody wants to call them a white nationalist, to me, is an American. It's an American. Now, if that white nationalist is a racist, I'm totally against anything that they want to do, because I am 110% against racism. But I want somebody that's in our military, that's strong, that believes in this country, that's an American that will fight along anybody, whether it's a man, or woman, Black or white, red. It doesn't make any difference. And so, I'm totally against identity politics. I think it's ruining this country. And I think that Democrats ought to be ashamed for how they're doing this, because it's dividing this country, and it's making this country weaker every day.

Note, incidentally, that while it's still OK to refer to people who are white, Black or brown, it's considered quasi-racist these days to refer to people as red or yellow. In any case, after this declaration, Collins tried to explain that white supremacists are, by definition, racists. The Senator repeated, several times, "That's your opinion." And he stuck to those guns for at least 6 hours.

That the Senator stated this opinion in the first place, back in May, and that he's back on TV stating it again is not something that pleases Republicans. Undoubtedly, some of them are legitimately anti-racist. We suspect that more of them are concerned that, in effect, Tuberville is saying the quiet part out loud. That is to say, it's not a secret that some segment of the Republican base is white supremacist or white supremacist adjacent. But because white supremacism is socially unacceptable, the racist voters have to accept that they'll get some wins on policy, but that the politicians can't embrace them openly (well, unless the politician is Donald Trump). Tuberville, coming from the state that brought you Bull Connor, George Wallace, the bombing of Sixteenth Street Baptist Church and Bloody Sunday, was trying to thread a needle that is un-threadable.

Whatever their motivation, a great many of Tuberville's Republican colleagues blasted him for his remarks. There was also a fair bit of arm twisting behind the scenes, with the result that late yesterday, Tuberville told reporters that he's thought about it some more, and concluded that white supremacists are indeed racists. Thank goodness that's settled!

What prompted the Senator's change of heart? Only he knows for sure. However, our best guess is that the Republicans know full well that the most odious member of each party gets to be the "face" of the party during elections, and that Tuberville was giving the Democrats some excellent ammunition for 2024 ("These Republicans, they don't actually care about the military, but they do care about hurting the fee-fees of David Duke"). Alternatively, as Roy Moore demonstrated, Alabamians do have a limit to the obnoxiousness they will tolerate. Perhaps someone convinced Tuberville that he'd veered so far right that he was opening himself up to a primary challenge. We don't think this is very likely, but you never know. (Z)

Trump Legal News: A Little Less Conversation, a Little More Action

On Monday, the Trump legal news was about dueling motions, as the various parties try to slow down the former president's trial in Florida (Trump, Walt Nauta), or to keep it on schedule (Jack Smith). On Tuesday, the Trump legal news was about the gears of justice doing just a little bit of grinding, as things inched forward on two fronts.

To start, there remains every indication that sometime in mid-August, Trump will be indicted in Georgia. However, the special grand jury that heard the evidence against him and then issued a pretty damning report has been dissolved because its term came to an end. To stick to the August schedule, a new grand jury will have to be seated. And yesterday, one was. Actually, two were. They are not exclusive to Trump, of course, and either or both of them would be available to consider the evidence against the former president and/or his cronies, and to bring down the hammer.

Meanwhile, there was a slight snarl in Trump vs. E. Jean Carroll v2.0, namely that the pending trial is going to cover things Trump said as president, and the stated position of the Department of Justice—both under Trump and under Joe Biden—was that he enjoyed special protections for things uttered while president because they were uttered in his official capacity, and were not the words of a private citizen.

The judge in that case, Lewis A. Kaplan, told the DoJ that he wanted a statement of its position on the issue by Thursday. It would seem that AG Merrick Garland and his legal beagles took a close look at the matter, and decided that their previous position was not supported by the facts. So, the DoJ informed all parties involved that it does not believe Trump can claim immunity here. Needless to say, the DoJ's opinion is not "final" here, but it does mean that Trump's lawyers won't be able to argue: "This case shouldn't have been brought; even the DoJ says so!"

And that concludes today's Trump legal news. Tune in tomorrow, same bat time, same bat channel, to learn about the next set of legal setbacks for the former president, whatever they turn out to be. (Z)

Trump Is Winning the Invisible Primary

Donald Trump isn't doing well on the legal front, we would say. But, as we've noted multiple times, with some chagrin, the more guilty he looks, the more electable he seems to get.

Now, allow us what will appear to be a non sequitur: Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) is a grifter. That is not too unusual among politicians, and it's positively commonplace among Trumpublicans. We're only picking on Stefanik because she got caught being particularly hamfisted about it. She's been sending out e-mails urging followers, in ALL CAPS, to "RUSH A DONATION TO OUR OFFICIAL TRUMP DEFENSE FUND TO STAND WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP." As it turns out, however, only part of the money goes to Trump's defense. The rest goes to the congresswoman. Exactly how much of it does Stefanik get? Get ready for it: Ninety-nine percent. That means that if you send $500 for the "OFFICIAL TRUMP DEFENSE FUND," then the Representative keeps $495 and passes on just $5 to Trump. There's just no honor among thieves.

The point of this little anecdote is that we honestly aren't sure there is a single Republican politician who is a True Believer in Trump. They may pretend to be a True Believer, and they may even be sympathetic to a lot of the things Trump stands for. But, as far as we can tell, every interpersonal relationship in Trump's life is transactional, and that most certainly includes his various political relationships.

That means that when various officeholders endorse Trump, the main thing they are thinking is not "How can I elect a guy I really like" it's "At what point is backing him more beneficial to me than any other alternative?" It is true that many, and probably most, politicians are transactional like this. But with Trump, it seems to be all of them, and to the Nth degree.

Assuming we have the right of this, then the Trump endorsements will really start to roll in once it's clear that he's got no real competition, and that puckering up for him is the only plausible option for a Republican politician who wants to keep their job. And indeed, with Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) flailing, that's exactly what is happening. Yesterday, for example, all six Republicans in Michigan's House delegation formally endorsed Trump.

We've done this before, and we'll presumably do it again, but Trump is absolutely crushing DeSantis when it comes to endorsements from Republican officeholders. A quick overview:

Governors
Trump: 2
DeSantis: 1

Senators
Trump: 10
DeSantis: 0

U.S. Representatives
Trump: 67
DeSantis: 6

U.S. Representatives from Florida
Trump: 12
DeSantis: 1

It is not good news for DeSantis that Trump has considerably more U.S. Representatives from Florida than DeSantis has overall.

In the interest of completeness, we will note that DeSantis is doing well with state legislators, thanks in particular to his endorsements from members of the Florida legislature, who are afraid to oppose him for fear that funding to their districts will be cut. Also, DeSantis has locked up the people in the right-wing media who think Trump is not far-right enough, like Matt Walsh, Ben Shapiro, Liz Peek and Piers Morgan. On the other hand, the people who know DeSantis best, and who don't have to worry about him cutting their personal pork (i.e., the members of the House) want no part of a DeSantis presidency. In addition, Trump is doing plenty well with right-wing media types himself, and he also has a hammerlock on the celebrity endorsements, assuming that folks like Randy Quaid, Jon Voight, Ted Nugent and Don King still count as celebrities.

The bottom line here is this: The polls suggest this thing is slipping away from DeSantis. And the invisible primary, which involves politicians who are paying close attention to how the winds are blowing, suggests the same thing. (Z)

Trump's VP Choices: An Early Look

We will freely admit that this item is about as weighty as cotton candy. First, there is a very long time between now and next year's Republican National Convention (July 15-18), when the #2 person on the GOP ticket will be anointed. Second, as we have pointed out many times, the choice of running mate rarely makes a difference, unless the pick is really, really good (Lyndon B. Johnson) or really, really bad (Sarah Palin).

That said, tracking the VP horse race is fun, and with Congress on recess and Joe Biden in Europe, there's only so much news. So, as it looks more and more like Donald Trump will be your 2024 Republican presidential nominee, The Washington Post's Aaron Blake decided to run down the current list of potential running mates, as he sees it. We thought we'd pass along the list, an executive summary of his remarks, and our thoughts on each potential candidate. Note that Blake organized them by type, and did not attempt to rank them. Here's the list:

1. "Gov." Kari Lake (R-AZ)
Blake's Take: She may be the Trumpiest politician in the land.
Our Thoughts: The former president likes running mates who are seen but not heard. Lake is too much a risk to steal some of the oh-so-precious spotlight from The Donald.

2. Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R-AR)
Blake's Take: She's veered hard-right since becoming governor, and she has already shown an ability to tote Trump's water.
Our Thoughts: She seems plausible to us, since she knows well how to avoid stepping on Trump's toes.

3. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA)
Blake's Take: She will say whatever Trump wants her to say, no matter how nutty.
Our Thoughts: Greene would bring very little to the ticket, and would probably do more harm than good, since she's now too "establishment" for the real nutters.

4. Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN)
Blake's Take: She loves fighting the culture wars.
Our Thoughts: That would seem to make her a running mate for Ron DeSantis, and not so much Trump.

5. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO)
Blake's Take: He says he doesn't want the job, but he aches to be the MAGA candidate in 2028.
Our Thoughts: There's no way Trump lets another alpha male on the ticket.

6. Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC)
Blake's Take: He's Trumpy without being TOO Trumpy.
Our Thoughts: Trump doesn't want someone who has held him at arm's length, he wants a rabid follower. Also, Trump has South Carolina in the bag and isn't going to get any meaningful number of Black votes. As we've written many times, Trump-Scott '24 simply makes no sense to us.

7. Elise Stefanik
Blake's Take: A good bridge to the Party establishment, and a staunch Trumper who nonetheless knows how to defer to the former president.
Our Thoughts: When Trump learns about the grift we outline above, we think that alone will disqualify her.

8. Nikki Haley
Blake's Take: She was once popular, and she's got foreign policy chops.
Our Thoughts: Trump cares nothing about foreign policy chops, and he cares a great deal about people who dared criticize him in the past.

9. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA)
Blake's Take: She'd help with Iowa.
Our Thoughts: Trump doesn't need help with Iowa, and he's been taking potshots at Reynolds all week because she hasn't endorsed him. We think Reynolds is... improbable, to say the least.

10. Gov. Kristi L. Noem (R-SD)
Blake's Take: She's Trumpy, but not especially well known.
Our Thoughts: Noem has certainly been angling for the #2 slot, but she has the same problem Lake does, and with considerably less name recognition or fanaticism.

11. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL)
Blake's Take: If they can resolve their differences and Trump is willing to change his residency back to New York, they might both be convinced Trump-DeSantis would be a powerhouse ticket.
Our Thoughts: Stranger things have happened, we suppose, but a Trump-DeSantis ticket would have more ego and more acrimony than any ticket this side of JFK-LBJ.

12. Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA)
Blake's Take: He's skillful at navigating the Trump/NeverTrump divide.
Our Thoughts: Again, we don't think Trump wants someone whose actions suggest that Trumpism is sometimes a less-than-perfect path.

13. Mayor Francis Suarez (R-Miami)
Blake's Take: Kellyanne Conway likes him.
Our Thoughts: Suarez also raises the residency problem. Oh, and there's the "nobody knows who he is" problem and the "he often says dumb things" problem.

14. Tulsi Gabbard
Blake's Take: She's popular with the Fox crowd, but has a limited résumé.
Our Thoughts: We can actually see Trump going in this direction, on the theory that Gabbard would bring some Democratic votes to the ticket. We don't agree with that theory, but we can see him thinking that.

15. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL)
Blake's Take: He's Black, he's young, he's Trumpy.
Our Thoughts: He's also unknown and he's yet another Florida resident.

16. Tucker Carlson
Blake's Take: He used to have a lot of buzz around him.
Our Thoughts: Seriously? There is no way this happens. Trump is more likely to pick Michelle Obama as his running mate.

17. Vivek Ramaswamy
Blake's Take: Maybe!
Our Thoughts: Maybe not!

18. Michael Flynn
Blake's Take: Anything's possible!
Our Thoughts: Flynn certainly is more plausible than Carlson or DeSantis.

19. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Blake's Take: He's Trumpy and yet also Democratic.
Our Thoughts: We can see this happening, on the same basic logic as Tulsi Gabbard. That said, Gabbard and Trump are more closely aligned, in terms of politics, than Kennedy and Trump are.

20. Donald Trump Jr.
Blake's Take: N/A. Although Blake was grasping at straws for the latter part of the list, he somehow stopped at 19, and didn't make it a nice, round 20. So, we'll make it a nice, round 20 for him.
Our Thoughts: Trump Jr. is guaranteed to be uber-Trumpy and is guaranteed to always be in dad's shadow. Plus, if the ticket is elected, he already knows where the White House cocaine closet is.

That's the field, at least at the moment. That said, recall that at this point in the cycle in 2019-20, Michael Avenatti seemed like a potential presidential candidate. So again, take any list that is this premature with many, many grains of salt. (Z)

Scavenger Hunt, Part III: Christmas in July

Now we're getting some scavenger hunt momentum. Here's the list of questions, in case any readers still want to participate, and send in submissions for the six items still pending after today (#3 through #8):

1. The single photograph or image that best encapsulates the Trump presidency. (Part 1) (Part 2)
2. Something that would make a terrible Christmas gift for Joe Biden.
3. A book that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell would never, ever read. (Submit here)
4. A t-shirt that would be very apropos for Chief Justice John Roberts to wear. (Submit here)
5. The wisest, most insightful, or most pithy quote ever to be uttered by a politician or political figure (need not be limited to Americans). (Submit here)
6. The worst bumper sticker, button, yard sign or other campaign-related ephemera in U.S. history. (Submit here)
7. A portrayal of a key figure in U.S. history—image, song, verse, book, etc.—that is even more ridiculous than Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter. (Submit here)
8. This isn't exactly a scavenger hunt type question, but we're going with it anyhow. Finish this joke: "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis and Hillary Clinton walk into a bar..." (Submit here)

And now, some inappropriate Christmas gifts for Joe Biden (in addition to copies of The Art of the Deal and "a MAGA hat," each suggested by many readers):

A.H. in Atlanta, GA, writes: Come On, Man!: The Truth About Joe Biden's Terrible, Horrible, No-Good, Very Bad Presidency, by Joe Concha

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B.O. in Hadley, MA, writes: One terrible gift for Joe Biden would be How to Speak in Public, by Peter Coyte and Neil Kinnock. Those of us around in the '80s will remember why! Unfortunately, there is no Collected Speeches of Neil Kinnock, so this is the closest I could get.

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B.P. in Cheshire, NY, writes:

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S.C. in Mountain View, CA, writes: "A gift in your honor has been given to the Republican National Committee in the amount of $41,300."

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D.S. in Washington, DC, writes: Anthology of British Tongue-Twisters, by Ken Parkin

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E.P. in Bailey County, TX, writes:

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H.S. in Lake Forest, CA, writes: The worst possible Christmas gift for Joe Biden is, of course, a pack of Trump Digital Trading Cards.

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B.H. in Westborough, MA, writes: Memory Games for Seniors: A Large Print XXL Puzzle Activity Book with 501 Exciting and Funny Brain Exercises to Increase Cognitive Abilities, by Keep Your Mind Young

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J.L. in Los Angeles, CA, writes:

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S.K. in Drexel Hill, PA, writes: Perhaps the president would not enjoy receiving this: Hunter: The Complete Series (DVD)

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M.M. in San Diego, CA, writes: A baseball cap with a Burisma logo

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D.E. in Lancaster, PA, writes: What man who has everything wouldn't want this?

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B.C. in Walpole, ME, writes: A surprise from Hunter. Any surprise from Hunter at all.

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T.A. in Goshen, KY, writes: The worst Christmas gift for Joe Biden would be the country tipping into recession. The same thing happened to George H.W. Bush and it cost him the presidency.

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M.E.T. in Garden City, NY, writes:

McConnell books in the next entry! (Z)

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