It's Up to You, New York...

The other shoe has fallen in the Empire State. Thanks to change in the makeup of New York's top court, from four conservatives and three liberals to four liberals and three conservatives, the state's Democrats secured a ruling yesterday allowing them to reboot the process of drawing New York's district maps.

In the best-case scenario for the Democratic Party, new maps will allow them to flip six seats in the U.S. House. With no other changes, that alone would be enough to flip the current 221R (plus one R vacancy, in New York), 213D to 219 D, 216 R. So, yesterday's ruling is a pretty big deal.

That said, don't put another six seats in the D column quite yet. First, it is entirely possible that the map-making process doesn't play out quickly enough for new maps to be in place for 2024. Second, New York Democrats might choose to be a little conservative, shooting for, say, four safe seats instead of six very possible seats. Third, we're only here because the state's Democrats screwed up last time; whether they have gained more competence is yet to be seen. Fourth, the state's Republicans are going to sue to overturn yesterday's decision; they've had success with this before. Fifth, and finally, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) has previously expressed some opposition to extreme gerrymandering. Maybe this was for appearances' sake, maybe it was the product of legitimate convictions. In any event, it's possible she might throw a wrench into the works.

So, this little drama is far from over. That said, it's clearly heading in the direction the Democrats want. (Z)

...But Not You, Galveston

This is not getting 1/100th the attention that the New York ruling is, but there was also a case yesterday in which a map was allowed to stand. The county of Galveston redrew its county commissioner maps to make it harder for minority commissioners to be elected, lawsuits were filed, and both a Trump-appointed judge and then the Fifth Circuit en banc said that the old maps should be used until the case plays itself out. Yesterday, the U.S. Supreme Court overruled that, and said the new maps should be used for now.

Obviously, it will be a while until this reaches final resolution. However, the central issue in the case is an important one, and SCOTUS' ruling indicates which direction the justices may be leaning. The Court has affirmed that districts where one particularly ethnic group is in the majority cannot be gerrymandered out of existence. However, the districts in Galveston were majority-minority, meaning that no ethnic group is in the majority, but that non-white voters outnumber white voters.

This is of interest because this is the exact workaround that Georgia just used in order to try to avoid making its maps more equitable. If SCOTUS ultimately sustains the new Galveston map, then Georgia will presumably also triumph, while other red states will get some ideas about how to legally get around the Voting Rights Act. (Z)

Sununu Endorses Haley

Since Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) dislikes Donald Trump (albeit, not as much as he dislikes EVERY Democrat), this day was seemingly inevitable, and now it has arrived. Yesterday, Sununu endorsed Haley as his preferred candidate for president.

Of the three remaining candidates who are even remotely viable, Sununu's politics align much more closely with Haley's than with those of Trump or Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL). And now, Haley has pretty well cemented her status as the #2 candidate, since she's about even with DeSantis and her numbers are generally trending upward. So, no surprises here.

With all of this said, Trump is polling at around 44% in the Granite State, while Haley is polling a little below 19%. We are unaware of any politician, past or present, who can flip 15% of the electorate to their chosen candidate. So, barring something very unexpected, Sununu's support primarily means that Haley won't lose quite as badly as she otherwise would have. Maybe her deficit will be 20 points, instead of 25.

Meanwhile, the endorsement is very bad news for Chris Christie, to the extent that it's possible for a hopeless candidate to get very bad news. He was all-in on New Hampshire, and is actually polling in third place there, at 13% (DeSantis is at 10%). If Christie had gotten Sununu's backing, he might have pulled off a second-place upset, and might have been able to keep going for a little longer. But now, not so much. With the former New Jersey governor unlikely to make another debate stage (assuming there IS another debate stage), the game is up. (Z)

Desperation, Grift, or Both?

There wasn't a lot of political news yesterday; maybe that's why Donald Trump's campaign decided it was the ideal time to announce their latest fundraising initiative. His team has whipped up a new set of NFT trading cards. Examples don't appear to have been made public, but there are 47 of them, they retail for $99 each, and they are surely as tacky as the first batch. What was that we were saying about right-wing voters' willingness to spend their money on dubious "investments?"

For those people who buy a complete set—with a price tag of $4,653—there are two additional incentives. First, they get to have dinner "with Trump" at Mar-a-Lago. The last time that incentive was offered, Trump popped in for 10 minutes, picked at a wedge salad, and then excused himself, so even those folks who want to dine with him may end up disappointed. Second, they get a piece of what is being described as "The Most Historically Significant Artifact in United States History."

At this point, you are probably horrified that Team Trump would cut up the original copy of the Constitution or the Declaration of Independence. Or maybe that they are going to chop "American Gothic" into pieces. Or possibly it's Dorothy's ruby slippers. Or Thomas Jefferson's writing desk. Or Martin Luther King Jr.'s final draft of the "I Have a Dream" speech. But you needn't worry, because apparently "The Most Historically Significant Artifact in United States History" is... the suit that Trump was wearing on the day he was booked and mugshotted in Georgia.

Readers may have different ideas, but to us, this carries more than a faint whiff of desperation. Trump has hit his minions up so many times, and there's such a high chance that the money will go to his legal defenses rather than his reelection, that it's entirely plausible the donations are drying up. We'll know for sure around January 10, when the Q4 fundraising reports are in. (Z)

What A Difference a Day Makes (at Least, if You're Elise Stefanik)

Earlier this week, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) was riding high, having gotten a lot of press for her "fight" against antisemitism at America's elite universities, and for having cost Penn president Liz Magill her job. The Representative was hoping to spend the rest of the week bringing down Harvard president Claudine Gay and MIT president Sally Kornbluth.

Yesterday, things definitely took a turn for the worse. Rep. Kathy Manning (D-NC) is also on the House Committee on Education and the Workforce, and she wanted to work with Stefanik on the antisemitism problem. So, Manning showed Stefanik a draft of a letter to the governing boards of Penn, Harvard and MIT. Ultimately, it became clear that the two representatives had different goals, so Manning broke off the collaboration. That did not, however, stop Stefanik from plagiarizing a sizable chunk of Manning's letter. You can see the two letters here, if you wish; Stefanik's is the one on the left. In any event, the lifting couldn't be clearer.

Now, Stefanik could plausibly have defused this in two ways. She could have said something like: "We were working together, and I did not realize that my colleague was no longer OK with a collaborative letter. I apologize for the misunderstanding." Or, she could have said: "Both of our letters were substantially influenced by releases from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which is why they are similar." Instead, Stefanik lashed out: "Desperate and deranged Democrats are now attacking us for uniting the country around calls for these university presidents to be fired."

Why wasn't Stefanik willing to admit her work wasn't original, even if by accident? It might just be because she attacked Gay for... plagiarism. It also does not help that in the parts of the two letters that WERE different, Manning was focused on combating antisemitism, while Stefanik was focused on forcing the resignations of the three presidents. As Manning put it yesterday:

When I shared my letter with @RepStefanik to try to make this a bipartisan effort, she made it clear with her "edits" that she didn't care about protecting Jewish students. All she cared about was calling for the resignation of university presidents to score political points.

Seems like we've heard that before.

Anyhow, Stefanik is now playing defense and, on top of that, Harvard has already announced that Gay will remain in her post, while MIT has signaled that a similar announcement about Kornbluth is imminent. What a difference a day makes. (Z)

"Santos" Cameos Are All the Rage on The Hill Right Now

We probably can't squeeze another "This Week in Schadenfreude" out of this story, but it's also too good to let it go without comment. And so it is that we pass along the news that other Democrats in Congress have borrowed Sen. John Fetterman's (D-PA) idea, and hired "George Santos" to record trolling messages for colleagues they don't care for.

The latest video to make the rounds is courtesy of Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-FL), and is addressed to Rep. James Comer (R-KY). Here it is, if you care to watch:

If you don't care to watch, here is what "Santos" says to Comer (keeping in mind that "Santos" doesn't know who paid for the video, or who is being addressed):

Hey, James. Just wanted to stop by to congratulate you for being the largest landowner in your county with your brother through all your LLCs. I think it's amazing that you share a passion for Smurfs and the Pink Panther. Look, congrats on your promotion. I hope that the struggles of this year don't transfer to next year and that you slay and kill it. I want to wish you, James, a very Happy Hanukkah. Bye.

The first sentence is true; the rest is not. All of it is meant to get the goat of Comer voters who happen to see the clip. We're not 100% comfortable with the Hanukkah part, but Moskowitz is Jewish, so we guess he gets a pass. And, in fact, when Moskowitz released the video, he made a point of addressing that detail:

My dear friend James Comer has had a tough year filled with failed hearing after failed hearing. But in the spirit of Hanukkah, I wanted to offer him some words of encouragement from a Jew-ish former colleague of ours.

For those who might think that's a typo, it's not. It's a pretty old joke to say that someone is not so much Jewish as they are Jew-ish. It's not unlike the time (Z) stayed at the house of a friend whose parents are non-observant Jews, and discovered gefilte fish in the cupboard. "I thought you said your parents weren't very Jewish," (Z) said, "and yet they have one of the most Jewish foods out there in their cupboard." "That's exactly it," the friend said. "They're Jewish enough to HAVE the gefilte fish, but they're not Jewish enough to actually EAT it."

Anyhow, we'll be keeping a close eye out for other "Santos" cameos. (Z)

Pop Quiz: Love, American Style (Part I)

We recently discovered that the pollster YouGov keeps a running tally of the approval ratings of nearly 300 political figures, (recent) past and present. We thought about what to do with this, and we've decided to put together a pop quiz. Here are the 10 questions (plus a tiebreaker):

1. Who is the most popular political figure overall?
      • Jimmy Carter
      • Bill Clinton
      • Barack Obama
      • Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)
      • Arnold Schwarzenegger
   
   
2. Among the 287 political figures being tracked, where does Joe Biden rank?
      • Number 6
      • Number 36
      • Number 86
      • Number 106
      • Number 206
   
   
3. Among the 287 political figures being tracked, where does Donald Trump rank?
      • Number 12
      • Number 42
      • Number 92
      • Number 112
      • Number 212
   
   
4. Who is the most popular GOP presidential candidate?
      • Chris Christie
      • Ron DeSantis
      • Nikki Haley
      • Vivek Ramaswamy
      • Donald Trump
   
   
5. Who is the most popular current or former governor in America?
      • Greg Abbott (R-TX)
      • Ron DeSantis
      • Gavin Newsom (D-CA)
      • Sarah Palin
      • Jared Polis (D-CO)
   
   
6. Who is the most popular female political figure in America?
      • Hillary Clinton
      • Kamala Harris
      • Sen. Amy Klobuchar (DFL-MN)
      • Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)
      • Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
   
   
7. Who is the most popular Black political figure in America?
      • Ben Carson
      • Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC)
      • Kamala Harris
      • House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY)
      • Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC)
   
   
8. Who is the most popular former senator (who never served as VP or president)?
      • Bob Corker
      • Al Franken
      • Bill Frist
      • John Kerry
      • Rick Santorum
   
   
9. Who is the most popular deceased political figure?
      • Madeleine Albright
      • Bob Dole
      • Henry Kissinger
      • John Lewis
      • Walter Mondale
   
   
10. Who is the least popular political figure in America?
       • Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY)
       • Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)
       • Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA)
       • Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)
       • Phyllis Schlafly
    
    Tiebreaker: From 0 to 100, What is the current approval rating of Senate Minority Leader Addison Mitchell "Mitch" McConnell?

"Popular" here is defined as the highest approval rating, without subtracting negative ratings (if the person has ratings of 40% approve and 60% disapprove, they would be ranked based on the 40%). If you want to take a shot at it, the survey is here. Results on Friday, along with some commentary. (Z)

A December to Rhymember, Part VIII: Haikus

Let's keep it simple. Taking the lead is M.K. in Essex Junction, VT, who was inspired by the movie Zoolander:

Mug shot for The Don
Blue Steel reinvented wrong
Taking crazy pills!

And now, something a little darker from D.L. in Oaxaca de Juárez, México:

Democracy dies
Right in front of us, but are
We not entertained?

More tomorrow; as always, send submissions here. (Z)

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