Trump May Have to Wade in on Abortion

Donald Trump has an almost feral understanding that he has to avoid certain topics to avoid angering his base. These include Social Security, Medicare, and abortion. Last week he said that abortion should be left to the states and some big-name anti-abortion groups went bonkers. They want nothing less than a total nationwide ban on all abortions. Trump understands that backing such a position would be fatal in the general election with independents. But the anti-abortion groups have now forced his hand by stating that they will not support any candidate unless that candidate supports a nationwide ban on all abortions after 15 weeks or less.

In an attempt to deflect their criticism of him for not defending a nationwide ban on abortion, on Saturday, in a speech in Iowa to the Faith and Freedom Coalition, Trump tried to weasel out of this situation by talking about how he nominated three justices to the Supreme Court who voted to kill Roe v. Wade. However, he didn't directly address their demands.

The anti-abortion movement has indeed been moving in the past year—moving the goal posts. For years, their goal was repealing Roe. Now that they achieved that, they changed the goal to a nationwide ban on all abortions. Of course, Trump doesn't care one way or another about abortions. If he gets the next Stormy Daniels pregnant, he'll just buy her a ticket to Canada to solve the problem if it comes to that. He definitely doesn't want to adopt a position that will infuriate independents. So he has a big problem now. He has apparently decided that he can just finesse the issue by pointing out his Supreme Court nominees and hopes that will quiet his critics. We suspect it will not and he will be forced to talk about the subject more than he wants to in the next year. (V)

No Basement Campaign for Biden This Time

In 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic was raging, Joe Biden did most of his campaigning from the basement of his house in Delaware. He even had a special television studio built there. For better or worse, that won't fly in 2024. This time he will have to come out of hiding and meet the voters. He will have to go to factories, diners, union halls, and hold public rallies all over the country. It's something he hasn't done for a while. Then there is the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, which will be real, not virtual, in 2024.

The last time Biden ran a full-scale national campaign was in 2012, when he ran for vice president the second time. That was 12 years before 2024 and things have changed somewhat. One thing that has changed is that Biden is older now and his age is a big issue. In-person campaigning could cut both ways. He could show that he is in good shape and up to the job or he could look old and weak. And he has to do the campaigning in his spare time since he also has a day job to do. This could stretch him thin or tire him out. On the other hand, people know who he is, so he doesn't have to campaign day and night just to get name recognition. In addition, the Republican Party could solve his "get-out-the-vote" problem by nominating Donald Trump. Trump is also no spring chicken. He will be 78 if and when he accepts the Republican nomination and everyone will be looking for signs of aging there, too.

Another aspect of the campaign that will be different is the ground war. In 2020, the DNC prohibited volunteers from knocking on doors and talking to the voters. That will not be true this time. Also, some people voted for Biden in 2020 just to "get back to normal." That won't be a factor in 2024, but the economy (especially inflation and maybe recession) could be. In short, the campaign will be very different from the 2020 campaign. (V)

DeSantis' Former House Colleagues Don't Like Him

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) was a member of the House for 6 years before he was elected governor of Florida. Many of his former House colleagues are still in Congress, or at least are still alive. So he can count on lots of endorsements from current and former House members, right? Well, actually no. In fact, off the record, and sometimes on the record, most House members who knew him don't like him at all. Oops.

For example, former Rep. David Trott (R), who sat next to DeSantis on the Foreign Affairs Committee, said: "I was new to Congress and he didn't introduce himself or even say hello. I think he is an a**hole. I don't think he cares about people." A spokesperson for DeSantis declined to comment on Trott's remarks. This probably means they are true. Trott also said that Donald Trump tries to get to know people. DeSantis focuses on which hot-button issues he needs to talk about to get the electorate fired up. But he is arrogant and nobody liked him when he was in Congress.

Rep. Greg Steube (R-FL) said that he has had a hard time connecting with his governor. When DeSantis held events in Steube's district, Steube was told he wasn't welcome at them. That is extremely unusual. When Steube had a serious accident and landed in the ICU, the first person to call was Donald Trump. DeSantis never called.

First-term Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) also has a story along these lines. After her father died in January, Trump sent her a personal note. DeSantis did not, although his wife Casey did.

All these stories take us back to 2000. The voters tended to agreed with Al Gore on the issues, but they would rather have had a beer with George W. Bush. And, of course, Bush won. The idea that DeSantis is an unpleasant fellow you would best avoid seems to keep coming up. Is that going to be fatal in the primaries? We don't know, but it certainly can't help him. (V)

Christie May Jump in and Attack Trump Head-on

Former New Jersey governor Chris Christie knows a thing or two about brawling and may be preparing to demonstrate it. He has said that the only way to beat Donald Trump in the primaries is to tackle him head on. He thinks he is the guy, saying: "No one else has the balls to do it." We'll see if Christie measures up and can take the heat when he tries. So far he has mostly been attacking Ron DeSantis, a much softer target, rather than Trump.

Christie is undoubtedly right about the only way to take down Trump is to attack Trump. Otherwise we will get a rerun of 2016, with all the other candidates attacking one another, in the hopes of being the only one left to go man-to-man against Trump. It didn't work then and it won't work now.

None of the other GOP candidates are even trying. Nikki Haley is busy telling people about her time at the U.N. and all the nice people she met. DeSantis is busy telling everyone how much he hates woke. Mike Pence is spending his time in church (see below). Nobody is paying any attention to Asa Hutchinson so we don't know what he is doing. None of this will take down Trump. Only attacking Trump might do that and so far all the other candidates are scared witless of him and are avoiding that. That is not a winning strategy. Christie has nothing to lose so he might as well jump in and start hitting Trump hard where it hurts. It could possibly work. But he has to go in for 100% and not try to attack in a subtle way that nobody notices.

What could Christie talk about? We see a couple of possible angles:

• He's a loser: This approach emphasizes Trump's election record. In 2018, during his administration, the Democrats flipped 41 House seats and handed the (much hated) Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) the gavel. In 2020, Trump lost reelection and the Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress. In 2022, the Democrats picked up a seat in the Senate and blocked the expected red wave due to Trump endorsing terrible candidates all over the country. The point here is that Trump is causing Republicans to lose elections they could otherwise win. Christie could ask the rhetorical question: "Do you want to keep losing? Are you sick of losing? Then maybe it is time to get rid of Trump and go with a winner." The key idea here is to say Trump is a great person and has wonderful ideas but he can't win elections.
  
  
• He's a failure: This approach requires repeating all of the things Trump promised to do in 2016 and didn't do. He promised to build a wall. He failed. He promised to get Mexico to pay for it. He failed. He promised to clean up the swamp. He failed. He promised to replace Obamacare. He failed. He promised to ban all Muslims from entering the U.S. He failed. He promised to open up libel laws so people could sue the media easily. He failed. He promised to approve the Keystone XL pipeline. He failed. He promised to bring back manufacturing jobs. He failed. He promised to lock up Hillary Clinton. He failed. He promised to end birthright citizenship. He failed. The list goes on. The idea would be to tell Trump's supporters that Trump had great ideas but he is all hat and no cowboy. He isn't capable of getting anything done so it is time to have someone else try. This approach tells the voters they made the right choice in 2016—Trump wanted all the right things—but he doesn't have the ability to make good on his promises. He's a big fat failure.
  
  
• He tricked you: This approach focuses on the idea that Trump is really in it for himself, not for his supporters. He raised a lot of money for himself and got a lot of attention for himself, and that's all he cares about. He doesn't care a whit about you. I care about you. Don't tell the voters that they are dumb rubes but do tell them they are victims (they love that)—victims of Trump's greed and arrogance.
  

Maybe there are some others, but hiding in the corner and pretending Trump will go away is not going to work for anyone. And just shooting at the other Republicans isn't going to work either. Been there, done that. If Christie wants to make a go of it, he has to attack Trump directly and frontally and not pull any punches. Will he be able to do that and handle the resulting incoming fire? It's possible, but we'll believe it when we see it. (V)

Evangelicals Don't Care about Religion Anymore

George W. Bush did extremely well with evangelicals. One of his biggest selling points with them was faith and conviction as a born-again Christian. His personal acceptance of Jesus as his savior mattered lot to him, especially against Al Gore, who was much more interested in saving the earth than saving his soul. Those days are completely gone.

Nowadays evangelicals are primarily interested in political power and getting their political agenda enacted, come hell or high water. Candidates who wear their religion on their sleeves and make it a big part of their pitch are getting nowhere. Case in point: Mike Pence. The former vice president is a former Catholic and current evangelical who has been going to different churches every Sunday to spread the Gospel of Pence. It is getting him some smiles, but that's all. No votes. If evangelical voters actually cared strongly about religion, they would be flocking to him. After all, he is one of only two Republican presidential candidates who is genuinely religious and is not faking it. And it is doing him no good at all. Evangelical voters don't actually give a hoot about Jesus. What they care about are almost entirely issues Jesus didn't address at length, for example abortion and which high school sports team trans students should play on.

The other candidate who is very religious and making no secret about it is Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC). He is Black, so is he scoring big with Black evangelicals? Not at all. And certainly not with white evangelicals, despite his being on a "Faith in America" tour, talking about a "God solution" to the country's racial divide, and meeting with pastors in Iowa and elsewhere. Kristin Kobes Du Mez, a historian at evangelical Calvin University in Michigan and author of Jesus and John Wayne, said: "What matters to evangelicals is they are looking for the best candidate to further their agenda." With them, personal testimony is a bonus, but not essential.

The two leading Republican candidates with evangelicals now are Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL). Trump wouldn't be caught dead in a church unless he was holding a rally outside of one and it suddenly began pouring. DeSantis is nominally a Catholic, but his entire pitch is how much he hates woke, not how much he hates sin. What evangelicals love about Trump is how he delivered three justices for the Supreme Court who not only strongly oppose abortion but also who place the feelings of religious people above the rights of gays and other groups the religious people dislike. His actual "achievements" are going to carry him far with this group.

Almost as important is style. After all, Jesus taught that if someone smacks you on the cheek, you should kick him in the [insert body part here] as hard as you can. Or something like that, right? In any event, they want a brawler and Trump fits the bill. DeSantis understands this too, and is trying to win them over by being even tougher than Trump, not by turning the other cheek or any other body part. Evangelicals want Rambo, not St. Paul.

Megapastor Robert Jeffries of Dallas, a big Trump supporter, said: "I don't see anyone who has announced so far who has a chance of capturing evangelicals except Trump." He probably knows. (V)

Republicans Are Now Focusing on Keeping Abortion Initiatives Off the Ballot

Pro-choice groups got pro-choice initiatives on the ballot in half a dozen states last year starting in deep red Kansas in the summer and all of them won. Republicans are scared to death of a repeat performance in 2024, so Republican-controlled legislatures are naturally trying to thwart the will of the people by keeping similar measures off the ballot in 2024.

One key battle is in Ohio, where pro-choice groups are trying to get a measure on the ballot that would keep abortion legal in the state for pregnancies of 24 weeks or less. That would put the cutoff back where it was pre-Dobbs. So what are the Republicans in the state legislature doing? They know that it will easily get 50% in the vote, so they are working on a law that would raise the threshold to 60%. It has already passed the state Senate and is expected to pass the state House. Legislators love to hear from the people—except when the people have something to say that they don't like. However, the legislature can't change the threshold all by itself. The change would have to be approved by the voters in a special election... in August. This ensures low turnout. Also, the August measure is obscurely worded and does not even mention abortion.

Kelly Hall, the executive director of the Fairness Project, which supports citizen initiatives, said: "There are a lot of elected officials leading state legislatures that are being unapologetic, brazen, relentless—choose your adjective—about the fact that they don't care what voters think on this issue and that their ideological stance on this is going to dictate the outcome."

Ohio isn't the only state working at this. North Dakota just approved a bill making it more difficult to get measures on the ballot and more difficult to approve them. Now they must be approved by the voters in both the primary election and in the general election. In Arkansas, the voters solidly defeated an initiative that would have made it harder to get future initiatives approved. So the legislature just passed it as a law on its own and Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R-AR) signed it. In Missouri, the legislature is about to put an initiative on the ballot to raise the threshold for approval of future initatives from 50% to 66.7%. It's the same pattern everywhere in red states: try to keep the voters out of the loop. They are nothing but trouble.

The red-state legislatures are trying to make the initiative process harder because those annoying voters keep approving things the legislatures don't like, like making abortion legal, making marijuana legal, allowing ex-felons to vote, raising the minimum wage, and so on. (V)

Will the Right-o-sphere Be Affected by the Dominion Settlement?

It is important to keep in mind that Fox News, Newsmax, OAN, and other right-wing media outlets are first and foremost businesses. Their goal is to make money for their owners. Spreading right-wing propaganda is a means to the goal. It's not the goal itself. The texts and e-mails from Tucker Carlson and others showed that none of them believed the lies about the 2020 election they were spouting on air. It was just a job for them and they did what their employers wanted from them. How is that going to work going forward? Probably like this.

To start with, the full impact of the various lawsuits is not clear yet. Dominion Voting Systems extracted $787.5 million from Fox, but Fox has something like $4 billion in the bank and can afford to pay. The Smartmatic lawsuit against Fox hasn't started yet, but it could play out differently than the Dominion one. In particular, the settlement between Fox and Dominion is an implicit admission that Fox hosts lied on air and knew they were lying. Smartmatic is sure to introduce this as new evidence if its case goes to trial. That may encourage it to actually go to trial unless Fox coughs up the full $2.7 billion it is asking for. Why settle for less when the case is now even stronger than Dominion's? For Fox, paying up is possible, but would run its bank account perilously close to zero. From a business point of view, losing $3.5 billion is not something you want to do every day.

For the smaller networks, Newsmax and OAN, payouts of a billion dollars, give or take, are not possible. They are marginally profitable, if at all, and don't have that kind of money in the bank. An adverse ruling in the Dominion case would bankrupt them. Dominion might just decide to teach them a lesson by refusing to settle for an amount they can afford and forcing them into bankruptcy. Ditto Smartmatic.

Also keep in mind that Dominion and Smartmatic have both also sued Rudy Giuliani, Sidney Powell, and Pillowman. All of them would definitely notice a billion-dollar judgment against them. Probably even a $100-million judgment. In addition, Smartmatic also sued Jeanine Pirro, Maria Bartiromo, and Lou Dobbs. One or the other also sued some minor players. as well.

All of these things are going to have big effects downstream. The lawyers at Fox and the others—if they survive—are going to keep a much closer tab on all the hosts. What they say on air is going to have to be carefully vetted in advance to prevent more lawsuits. Statements like "Trump won and the election was stolen from him by Dominion's rigged machines" are going to be replaced by lawyerspeak like "Some people believe that evidence exists showing that some election results reported by some media outlets may not be entirely accurate." The base is not going to like this and it could cost Fox and others viewers—unless all its competitors have been sued out of existence. At the very least, it is certain to turn the temperature down. Of course, if Fox stops being Fox and OAN and Newsmax are gone, some viewers may just stop consuming politics day and night. After all, homo sapiens got along without cable news for some 300,000 years. It can be done.

The individual lawsuits against Giuliani, Powell, and Pillowman could have an even bigger effect going forward. If all of them are forced into bankruptcy and stripped of most of their assets, minor right-wing kooks will surely notice and hold their fire for a few years, until all this is forgotten. (V)

North Carolina Might Be a Problem for the GOP in 2024

In terms of presidential elections, North Carolina is reddish purple. Barack Obama carried the state in 2008. Since then, it has gone for Republicans, but not by much. At the state level, it is completely different. Republicans have 30 of the 50 seats in the state Senate and 72 of the 120 in the state House. If they only had the governorship, they could run wild.

In 2024, Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) will be term limited, so the Republicans have a shot at getting the trifecta. Will they be able to get it? Not if Donald Trump has his way. On Saturday, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R-NC) announced his candidacy for the open governor's race at Altamahaw, NC, just outside Elon, NC. Robinson is Black, but also Trumpy as can be. Is this going to be a repeat of Doug Mastriano running for governor of Pennsylvania in 2022? Time will tell.

In addition to his Trumpiness, Robinson is also a full-service bigot. He is antisemitic and has also said that children shouldn't learn about "homosexuality or any of that filth. And yes, I called it filth. And if you don't like it that I called it filth, come see me and I'll explain it to you." He also once said: "I have found that women in general don't like to be outtalked. They love to be able to talk a man into submission. And with me, it never happens. They can't do it." It is not just about "talk" but also about leadership. he once said: "Christians are called to be led by men, not women." He is not always anti-woman though. He complained when the Carolina Panthers hired a transgender cheerleader. He said the position should have gone to a woman. And how about this: "Take the head of your enemy in God's name." After all, Jesus was an incredible swordsman and he often decapitated his enemies with a single blow of his mighty sword. There's tons more. Robinson is an oppo researcher's dream candidate.

Does North Carolina want a raving, Trumpy bigot as governor? We don't know but we do know that after former governor Pat McCrory signed the infamous "bathroom bill," he was defeated for reelection by Cooper in 2016. Robinson is way further to the right than McCrory and winning an open seat is a lot harder than being reelected. Republicans are worried. And if Trump comes out and endorses and campaigns for Robinson, they will worry even more. Here is the happy couple.

Robinson is popular enough with the Trump base. Even the revelation that his wife had an abortion years ago hasn't derailed him. However, many North Carolina Republicans are worried that he is too radical for the state and will go down in flames, like Mastriano and Kari Lake in Arizona. They are hoping that former congressman Mark Walker jumps in and beats Robinson in the GOP primary.

The Democrats are not likely to have a primary. North Carolina AG Josh Stein appears to have a lock on the Democratic nomination. This could lead to a minor variant of the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race of 2022: A Jewish state AG named Josh S. against a bats**t crazy Trumper. It should be interesting. (V)

First Take on Some Southern California House Seats

California is going to be a big battleground for House seats, with half a dozen seats likely to be competitive. The Cook Political Report has taken a first look at those in Southern California. Some of them are locked in, including these:

Solid Democratic: CA-24, 25, 26, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 42, 43, 44, 46, 50, 51, 52
Solid Republican: CA-23, 48

However there are six districts that are not solid for one party or the other, so lets look at them:

• CA-27 (Santa Clarita, Lancaster, Palmdale): This is Katie Hill's old district. It has been a problem for the Democrats ever since she resigned in a sex scandal—which, of course, was unusual, since it is almost always men who are caught up in sex scandals, not women. Joe Biden won it by 20 points, even though the district is only D+4. The current congressman is Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA). He won by emphasizing his background as a Navy pilot. The Democrats have a strong candidate in George Whitesides. He was NASA's chief of staff under Barack Obama and was later CEO of Virgin Galactic. He is very wealthy and can self-fund the race. He can also point out that he brought in 700 jobs to the district when he was Galactic's CEO. Tossup.
  
  
• CA-40 (Yorba Linda, part of Fullerton, Mission Viejo) This is a swing district (R+2) occupied by Rep. Young Kim (R-CA). The district is completely new as a result of the 2020 redistricting. In 2022, Democratic physician Asif Mahmood lost to Kim and probably won't be back. Democrats think Kim is vulnerable due to her votes against certifying the 2020 election and against same-sex marriage. Democrats will hunt high and low for a challenger, but they don't have one yet. Also, Kim is a close ally of Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and he will spend whatever it takes to protect Kim. Despite the PVI, likely Republican.
  
  
• CA-41 (Riverside County, Corona, Menifee, Palm Desert) The district is R+3 and occupied by Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA). Redistricting made the district bluer and Calvert barely won it against former federal prosecutor Will Rollins, who is gay, 52% to 48%. Democrats hope Rollins will try again. He raised $3.7 million in 2022, is better known now, and the electorate is more favorable to him. Last time, the DCCC didn't attack Calvert, but now that they know how close it was, they might in 2024. Leans Republican.
  
  
• CA-45 (Orange County, Westminster, Garden Grove, part of Fullerton) This district will be a big Democratic target since it is D+2 and the current representative is Michelle Steel (R-CA), who is from Korea. In 2022, Democrats ran a Navy Reserve officer, Jay Chen. The race was very racist on both sides. The district is 41% Asian-American. At first, the Democrats were happy when Garden Grove Councilwoman Kim Bernice Nguyen jumped in. Her father is Vietnamese and her mother is a Mexican American. But she raised only $49,000 in Q1, so Democrats are now less optimistic. Maybe some other Democrat will jump in yet. Leans Republican.
  
  
• CA-47 (Orange County, Irvine, Huntington Beach, Newport Beach) This is an open seat because Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) is running for the Senate. The district is D+3, with Irvine leaning left and the beach towns leaning right. The Republicans have their candidate in Scott Baugh, who Porter beat 52% to 48% in 2022. The Democrats looked like they were staring at a nasty primary battle between former representative Harley Rouda and state Sen. Dave Min. But Rouda withdrew for health reasons, so it looks like Baugh vs. Min. Leans Democratic.
  
  
• CA-49 (Northern San Diego County, including Oceanside and Encinitas) This oceanside district is full of Republicans who hate Donald Trump but are open to down-ballot Republicans sometimes. In 2022, Rep. Mike Levin (D-CA) beat Brian Maryott (R) 53% to 47%, despite Kevin McCarthy spending $6 million attacking Levin. Some Republicans would like to try a woman or a Latino/a against Levin in 2024, but they don't have a strong candidate yet. Likely Democratic.
  

So despite California being deep blue, there are six House races worth watching in Southern California alone. In a blue wave, Democrats could possibly knock off Garcia, Kim, Calvert, and Steel, getting four of the five seats they need to take over the House right in Southern California. (V)

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