Biden Makes Concessions to Republicans

Kabuki plays take a long time. In Japanese theaters, they can take an entire day with people coming and going throughout the performance. In Congress, they can take weeks, even months. There is currently one playing in the Senate entitled: "Infrastructure." Joe Biden is following the script and has just made a concession to the Republicans, knocking $500 billion off the $2.2 trillion he originally wanted. The Republicans followed their script as well, instantly demanding much more in the way of concessions. Their proposal is $568 billion, but about $300 billion of that is normal spending that happens every year. It is like the Republicans raising their offer to $1.4 trillion, but counting the current annual $800 billion in Social Security payments as part of it. So the Republican plan has only about $225 billion in new spending, about 10% of what Biden asked for, and the Republicans didn't raise this in response to Biden's new bid. Sounds like they learned something from Donald Trump about the art of the "deal."

So why did the New York Times even bother to write a story about this when there is no news here at all? Everything is going according to the script, which everyone well knows. However, in the 17th paragraph, there is actually a bit of news:

"They [the Democrats] have quietly taken steps to make [a bill] possible in case the talks collapse. Aides to Senators Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York and the majority leader, and Bernie Sanders, independent of Vermont and the chairman of the Budget Committee, met on Thursday with the Senate parliamentarian to discuss options of proceeding without Republicans under the rules."

So Schumer's staff is talking to parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough about what can be included in a budget reconciliation bill. While Biden is constrained to follow the script and pretend he can cut a deal with the Republicans, Schumer doesn't have a role in the play. So he is planning the next phase, when the talks finally collapse, as they are supposed to. Then everyone can say: "We tried!" At that point, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) will have to decide what he really wants to do.

Actually, under the radar, Biden is doing more than performing his role in the kabuki theater. He is asking other members of his administration to talk to Republican mayors and governors to enlist their support in working on recalcitrant Republican senators. When Biden tells a Republican senator that his infrastructure bill is good for the country, his argument is like water off a duck's back. But when the Republican governor and a dozen Republican mayors from the senator's state tell him how much they need the help, he brushes them off at his peril. The senator most definitely does not want the governor and mayors to tell the residents of the state how important the bill is for them and what goodies it will bring them. So, this is precisely what Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and other cabinet members are encouraging state and local Republican politicians to do. Republican senators don't like getting thousands of e-mails basically saying: "I voted for you in 2016 but if you don't support the infrastructure bill now, I'm voting for the Democrat in 2022." It's a clever way on Biden's part to put pressure on senators. It's almost as if he has some experience, somewhere in his distant past, that lets him know exactly how to push a senator's buttons. (V)

Democrats See Republicans' Refusal to Investigate the Insurrection as Electoral Gold

Both House and Senate Republicans appear to have become unified against a bipartisan commission to investigate the Jan. 6 insurrection. In the short run, not having a report may help the Republicans, because the report would almost certainly blame Donald Trump and his supporters (including some in Congress) for basically trying to pull off a coup. But Democrats see this refusal as working in their favor in the 2022 midterms.

In particular, almost everyone either saw the insurrection in real time or shortly thereafter. Much as Republicans would like to pretend it never happened, that is not going to work with people who saw it with their own eyes. Nor is the claim that the rioters were normal tourists going to fly. Up until 2022, Democrats are going to harp on the theme: "Why are the Republicans trying to block finding out what happened and who was responsible? Do they approve of a mob sacking the Capitol?" Democrats aren't going to let people forget, which will make it much harder for Republican candidates to try to change the conversation. Republican strategists want to make 2022 about jobs and national security and (maybe) the Biden administration. What they definitely do not want is making it about relitigating the 2020 election. But thanks to their not agreeing to a commission, Democrats can just keep asking: "What are you trying to hide?"

Yesterday, Sen. Roy Blunt (R-MO) went on Fox News to say: "I think it is too early to create a commission." He also said: "Commissions often don't work at all." We may have misinterpreted him, but we don't detect a lot of enthusiasm there.

Specifically, the place where Democrats are going to push this theme hard is in suburban swing districts, which are full of college-educated voters who don't get all their news from Fox. Telling them that the folks who broke windows at the Capitol and stormed through were just normal tourists is just not going to work. And these are precisely the voters who matter the most because these are the districts the Democrats need to win (back).

The riot commission also keeps the fissure within the Republican Party on the front burner because it splits the pro-Trump Republicans from the anti-Trump Republicans. Keeping this fight in the news doesn't help the GOP.

What also matters is what happens next. Will the Democrats drop the whole idea of investigating what happened? Will they assign some House committee the job of investigating it and holding hearings? AG Merrick Garland has said the insurrection was the most dangerous thing that has happened to our democracy since the Civil War. Will he appoint a special counsel to investigate if Congress drops the ball? That could be the worst of all possible worlds for the Republicans. They get pilloried for refusing to investigate the insurrection and it gets investigated anyway. (V)

How Trump's Big Lie Continues to Affect Politics

Half a year after the election and months after 60 court decisions to the contrary, Donald Trump continues to tell his Big Lie that the election was stolen from him. If that affected only people who read his blog, it wouldn't matter much because not many people read it. In its first week, all the items on the blog combined got only 212,000 engagements; that is, likes, shares, and comments across other social media platforms. When Trump was on Twitter, most tweets were retweeted hundreds of thousands of times. And a week's worth got millions of engagements.

But the Big Lie continues to affect politics in other ways. CNN has a rundown of them, as follows.

• Restrictive voting laws: The Big Lie gives Republican politicians cover to push for and enact laws that make it harder to vote, especially for minorities, college students, people without photo ID, people who live in cities, and other groups that skew Democratic. The laws make it harder to vote absentee while at the same time reducing early voting. This forces more people to vote on Election Day, when there are enormous lines in urban Democratic precincts (and no lines in rural, Republican precincts). Do Republican legislators actually believe the Big Lie or are they just cynically using it to keep Republicans in power? It hardly matters.
  
  
• Career problems for truthful Republicans: Those Republicans who refuse to believe that Trump was somehow cheated and who say this openly are all going to discover that their careers are in jeopardy. Every Republican who either voted to impeach or convict Trump or who voted to certify the election results is going to be primaried. Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) is going to face a tough renomination battle. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) will be primaried by Rep. Jody Hice (R-GA), whose whole campaign will be based on the lie that Trump won. Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan (R-GA) isn't even going to bother running in 2022 because he has made so many enemies by saying that Trump lost. Other Republicans have been censured by their state parties for saying that Joe Biden won.
  
  
• Crackdown on election officials: Not only are state officials under fire, but so are county election officials. A new law in Georgia allows a state board to take over a local election if, for example, it doesn't like the results the local official has announced. A new Florida law provides a fine of $25,000 for any county official who is in charge of a drop box if the box is left unguarded for even a minute. A new Iowa law allows local election officials to be fined $25,000 for "technical infractions" and be charged with a felony for failing to implement all guidance from the Iowa secretary of state.
  
  
• Change in House leadership: Last week Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY), who has a pretty good conservative pedigree and who voted with Trump over 90% of the time, was booted from her House leadership position for the sin of saying that Biden won the election. Her replacement is a wishy-washy moderate who only recently began genuflecting before Trump. More purges may be coming in the future.
  
  
• Open primary races: In some open primaries, the Big Lie is playing a Big Role. Candidates who claim that Trump was cheated are in a stronger position than candidates who tell the truth. In fact, the candidate who lies the most and the loudest is the most likely to get Trump's endorsement. For example, in the open Ohio Senate race, Josh Mandel (R) has turned the Big Lie into an applause line in his stump speech. In the recent Virginia state convention, state Sen. Amanda "Trump in heels" Chase (R) went full-blown Trumper and came in third in a field of seven. Even the winner, Glenn Youngkin (R), refused to say that Biden won during the campaign. Now that he is GOP nominee and needs Democratic votes in this blue state, he has changed his tune and said Biden won. A profile in courage this is not.
  
  
• The Big Lie is the basis for "audits": The Arizona state Senate is using the Big Lie as a justification for running an "audit" of the election, 6 months after it happened (but see below). The "audit" is being conducted by a firm with no experience in elections but which is headed by an outspoken Trumper who has repeatedly said Trump was cheated out of victory. Other states are considering similar audits.
  
  
• Another fight in Congress: Instead of investigating what happened on Jan. 6 and whose fault it was, Republicans are using it as cover to avoid what could be a moment of bipartisan unity. Instead they are creating another fight.
  
  
• Conspiracy theorists: The Arizona audit has become a hot item in QAnon conspiracy circles. Many QAnon believers expect the Arizona audit (and others yet to come) to result in the removal of Joe Biden from the Oval Office and the re-installation Donald Trump. If nothing else, this gives the movement new life.
  
  
• A hit to democracy: About 70% of Republicans believe that Biden was not legitimately elected. Having something like a third of the country not believing the election results, even those certified by Republican governors, weakens their overall view of democracy. If you don't believe in the election results, it is not a big step to say that a coup to replace the actual president with the one you would prefer is legitimate and warranted.

In short, there is no sign that the effects of the Big Lie are waning. (V)

Jennifer Weisselberg: Allen Will Flip

Jennifer Weisselberg was married to Barry Weisselberg, son of Trump Organization CFO Allen Weisselberg, from 2004 to 2018, and was interviewed this weekend by CNN's Erin Burnett. Weisselberg knows both Allen and Donald Trump very well. She is also actively cooperating with the investigation being carried out by Manhattan DA Cyrus Vance of Trump and people around him. In particular, Trump was very dependent on Allen Weisselberg for carrying out many of his plans and getting all the details right. Jennifer told Burnett that every penny spent by the Trump organization went through the CFO's hands and if laws were broken, he knows exactly which ones.

Trump needed to keep Allen loyal for decades. One of the ways he did this was lavishing benefits on Barry, who he hired to run the Wollman skating rink in Central Park. Among other things, Trump gave Barry and Jennifer the use of a magnificent apartment overlooking Central Park and also paid the private school tuition of one of their children. That is perfectly legal. In most cases, employers may give their employees whatever perks and benefits they want to. The only catch is that payments-in-kind are taxable income. If Barry Weisselberg failed to declare the rent on the apartment and the tuition payments as income and pay taxes on it in New York State, that would be a state crime for which he could be indicted. Jennifer Weisselberg delivered three boxes of documents to Vance, presumably including some that are relevant here. In any event, it would not be hard for Vance to get the Weisselbergs' state tax returns. In fact, it is likely he already has them. If they don't show any of the income-in-kind, Vance would need proof that the Weisselbergs received these taxable benefits, which is where the boxes of documents probably come in.

If Vance indicts Barry W. for tax evasion (or even threatens to do so), Allen will be under quite a bit of pressure. Will he be willing to see his son go to prison? Among other things, that would mean that Jennifer would surely get custody of their children and he would probably never see his grandchildren again unless he flips and agrees to tell Vance everything he knows about Trump's lawlessness. Burnett asked Jennifer point blank if she thought her ex-father-in-law would flip and rat on Trump when the pressure was applied. She answered with a single word: Yes. She is in a good position to make that guess. She also knows that if Allen toughs it out and refuses to cooperate with Vance he could also end up in prison since he was deeply involved in some of the shenanigans, such as inflating property values when using them as collateral for loans and deflating property values when talking to the tax assessor. Both of those are state crimes.

If Allen's former daughter-in-law is right, then Vance will almost certainly have an ironclad case against Trump for financial crimes. And if the CFO really comes clean and tells all he knows about Trump's misdeeds, there might well be many other charges as well.

There is one caveat here. Jennifer told Burnett that she has no axe to grind; she just wants the truth to come out. That's not true at all. Her divorce was extremely public and extremely bitter, and she lost custody of her children, whom she wants back. If Barry were to go to prison, which she would probably enjoy quite a bit, she would get the kids back. If she ends up being a witness in a court case, Trump's lawyers will harp on her motivation and say she will do anything, including lying under oath in court, to get her kids back, so the jurors should not believe a word of her testimony. This is where the three boxes of documents come in. If there is hard evidence that Barry received income-in-kind and failed to pay state taxes on it, then her testimony in court will not be needed and the case against Barry can be made based on the paper trail alone.

Of course, if she is right and Allen agrees to sing like a canary, then the situation changes. If Vance decides to send Barry up the river, Jennifer will cooperate fully but Allen won't. If Vance decides not to indict Barry, then Jennifer won't get her kids back and won't be happy. One thing that is important here is whether Barry and Jennifer filed joint state tax returns. If they did and they hid income-in-kind, then she is also guilty of a state crime. Vance's promise not to go after her for tax evasion might be enough to convince her to really cooperate fully, even if it means Barry doesn't do time and she doesn't get the kids back. It's complicated, but Vance is a real pro and generally knows how to approach a case. (V)

Why Is Arizona Really Recounting the Ballots?

The Republican-controlled Arizona state Senate has hired Cyber Ninjas, a Florida firm that knows nothing about ballots or election procedures, to "audit" the 2020 Maricopa County election results. The head of the company, Dave Logan, is an outspoken Trump supporter who repeatedly tweeted that the election was stolen. He is not exactly a dispassionate, neutral party. The Republican-controlled Maricopa board of supervisors has blasted the "audit" and said the county would not cooperate with Cyber Ninjas. The (Republican) chairman of the board, Jack Sellers, said: "People's ballots and money are not make-believe. It's time to be done with this craziness, and get on with this county's critical business." Further, the Constitution makes clear that once Congress has certified the electoral votes on Jan. 6, the election is over. If massive fraud is discovered and proven later, the only remedy is for the House to impeach and the Senate to convict the president. In that case, the vice president becomes president, not the losing candidate. So even if fraud is discovered—or more likely, concocted out of thin air—Joe Biden will still be president. Or Kamala Harris will be.

Jennifer Morrell, a former local election official and national expert on post-election audits, was asked to observe the audit. She agreed and wrote a report about her observations in the Washington Post. It is entitled: "I watched the GOP's Arizona election audit. It was worse than you think." Among other things, she said that conveyor belts whizzed ballots past human counters who had to mark the voter's selection for president and Senate on tally sheets. They had only a few seconds to record each ballot. If someone sneezed or blinked or was distracted, one or more ballots would be missed. The whole process was very error-prone. In the past, audits that Morrell observed had pairs of auditors, from opposing parties, examine every ballot carefully before scoring it. She had never before seen contraptions used to speed up the process and make the count worse than useless. There were no procedures for making sure that no ballots were lost during the process and no accepted procedures for dealing with math errors when ballots were tabulated. Untested, uncertified equipment was used throughout. Procedures were changed multiple times a day. Training for the workers kept changing. The result is virtually certain to differ from the official results by a lot simply due to the sloppiness of the audit.

So why is the state Senate spending all that money to do a very sloppy "audit" that won't change a thing, no matter what it reports? Now the cat is out of the bag. As part of the "audit," Cyber Ninjas took all the Maricopa voting machines and tabulating machines. This broke the required chain of custody and violated all election protocols and procedures. Arizona's Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D), who runs Arizona's elections, has advised Maricopa County to junk all of its equipment now, saying that changes that Cyber Ninjas may have secretly made to them renders them unusable for future elections. She said that she has grave concerns regarding the security and integrity of the machines.

So maybe we now know why the state Senate hired a computer security firm in Florida to "audit" the elections: While they are not capable of doing the "audit," they probably are capable of changing the software and firmware in all the machines to make sure Republicans win future elections in Maricopa County. Joe Biden carried the county by 2.2% and the state by 0.3%. If changes to the software give the Republicans an automatic lead of, say, 3%, given the population of Maricopa (about 60% of the entire state), that could be enough to have Republicans win the governorship and the Senate seat in 2022, along with all the other statewide offices. If Cyber Ninjas gets too greedy and tries to give the Republicans an edge of, say, 8 points, there will be a huge conflict with the exit polls, which will trigger all kinds of investigations that the Republicans don't want. And note, it is not just us saying this; it is the state's highest election official who is very worried.

In her letter to the state Senate, Hobbs noted that no election officials were allowed to be present when Cyber Ninjas examined the machines. She noted: "The lack of physical security and transparency means we cannot be certain who accessed the voting equipment and what might have been done to them." For this reason, she doesn't trust them any more and wants them junked.

Maricopa County is not keen on spending millions of dollars on new machines, so we don't know yet how this will play out. Hobbs won her election in 2018 by only 20,000 votes and is up again in 2022. With the help of the buggered machines, she could be voted out of office in 2022 and replaced by a Republican who doesn't see any need to replace them in 2024.

On the other hand, this could be an opportunity for Maricopa County to ditch all voting machines and just use hand-marked paper ballots, which is the most secure way to vote. That would save millions of dollars and give good security (unless Cyber Ninjas modified the software in the tabulating machines, which would definitely need to be replaced). However, there are two potential problems here. First, the state legislature could interfere and mandate using voting machines and also refuse to fund new ones, forcing the County to use the (possibly) compromised ones. Second, local associations for blind people will scream. In principle their objections could be handled by either: (1) providing ballots in Braille or (2) allowing blind voters to ask someone they trust to help them vote, either at home or in the polling booth. But if the real goal of the state Senate was to rig the machines for future use, it is not going to suddenly decide it prefers hand-marked paper ballots. (V)

Georgia Also Wants to Get into the Act

Not to be outdone by Arizona, a state judge in Georgia also didn't get the memo that when Congress has certified the electoral votes, the election is over. But Georgia Superior Court Judge Brian Amero at least had the good sense to potentially limit the damage he created when he ruled that a bunch of irate Georgia voters could inspect all 147,000 mail-in ballots. He said that the voters could examine copies of the ballots, but not touch the originals, which will remain in the custody of Fulton County election officials at all times. The judge hasn't worked out all the details quite yet. Like, will county officials be required to photocopy 147,000 ballots, and if, so, who will pay for all this?

One of the plaintiffs, Garland Favorito, said he didn't vote for Trump. His favorito was Constitution Party candidate, Don Blankenship, a West Virginia coal baron. Favorito wants experts to examine the paper in the ballots—which will obviously be impossible if his experts get only photocopies. He also wants to have image analysis experts examine the ballots.

It is worth noting again that Georgia officials did three separate audits of the ballots last year and found no evidence of fraud. The chairman of the Fulton County Board of Commissioners, Robb Pitts (D), said it was outrageous that the county "continues to be a target of those who cannot accept the results from last year's election." His spokesman said the county would fight this attempt to waste the taxpayer's money.

What the plaintiffs want is a declaratory judgment that counterfeit balloting occurred in the county. One of their arguments is that some of the ballots have no creases in the middle, so they couldn't have been mailed and thus must be counterfeit. Gotcha! Election officials have said that some ballots that arrived from overseas voters or deployed military personnel were so damaged that they couldn't be fed into the counting machines, so an election worker carefully transcribed the votes onto a crisp new ballot so they could be counted.

The judge's ruling was part of the discovery process. The executive director of Common Cause Georgia, Aunna Dennis, said the lawsuit is yet another attempt to sow doubt about the election, justify even more stringent election laws, and raise boatloads of money. On the other hand, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who stood up to Donald Trump last year, said: "Fulton County has a long-standing history of election mismanagement that has understandably weakened voters' faith in its system." So maybe Raffensperger isn't quite the champion of honest elections that Democrats imagined him to be. However, he did file an amicus brief urging the judge not to let the plaintiffs touch the original ballots, because that would violate state law. The judge apparently got the message. (V)

Republicans Try to Limit Ballot Initiatives

If you get the impression that Republicans are trying to win elections by changing election laws and trying to audit their way to victory after election officials said they lost—rather than offering a program that attracts more voters—you are right. But the people who really run (and fund) the GOP have very clear policy goals in mind: lowering taxes for rich people and reducing government regulation of business. Everything else is for show. The real leaders can and will change the "show" part at will, but they have tried "limited government," "fiscal responsibility," "trickle down economics," and "white supremacy" without any of them doing the job. So changing the rules and challenging unfavorable results is the last option.

Although Republicans control the trifecta in Florida, Idaho, South Dakota, and other states, and thus can pass any laws they want, they still have a problem: Voter initiatives. In many states, especially those in the West whose constitutions were written 100 years after those in the East, voters who gather a certain number of signatures can put a proposition on the ballot for a yes or no vote. Depending on the state, if the initiative wins, it becomes either a law (and can thus be repealed by the legislature) or part of the state Constitution (in which case the legislature cannot repeal it). Republicans don't like these initiatives because they provide the voters a way around their partisan machinations.

Accordingly, these and other states have passed new laws restricting voter initiatives or making them more difficult to pass. So far in 2021, Republicans have introduced 144 bills in 32 states designed to make it harder to get initiatives on the ballot and pass them. Of these, 19 have already been signed into law by nine Republican governors. However, in three states, Republicans have taken a more novel approach: asking the voters to approve initiatives that restrict their right to put up future initiatives.

The reason for all the interest in limiting initiatives is that in recent years, Democrats have supported initiatives on policy issues that the voters actually want but which are anathema to Republican politicians. Voters in red states have bypassed the legislature in recent years to raise the minimum wage, legalize marijuana, expand Medicaid, allow no-excuse absentee voting, re-enfranchise former felons, and take the power to draw congressional and state district maps away from the legislature and give it to nonpartisan commissions. Having the voters decide what the laws should be is obviously a bad idea and needs to be stopped. The (gerrymandered) legislature obviously knows best.

The new laws often have a technical character, even though the underlying thought is to make initiatives impractical. For example, South Dakota passed a law stating that initiative petitions and all their signatures must be in 14-point type and must all be on a single sheet of paper. This means that the people going door to door must carry pieces of paper the size of beach towels. Is there a valid reason for requiring 14-point type? Sure. It makes it harder for initiatives to succeed. The legislature also restricted collecting signatures to the cold winter months and required canvassers to apply for and wear special identification cards while gathering signatures in an effort to freeze and intimidate them. State senator Reynold Nesiba (D), one of only three Democrats in the South Dakota state Senate, noted that Republicans control every statewide office and 85% of the legislature, but even that is not enough. Unless they can kill off initiatives, the voters can still have their voices heard, so that must stop.

In Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) just signed a law limiting individual donations to groups trying to get an initiative on the ballot to $3,000. This will effectively crush the funding of future initiatives. Getting an initiative on the ballot in a big state like Florida costs millions of dollars, so big donors play a crucial role in the process. Putting the limit at $3,000 pretty much stops the process in its tracks. Florida also reduced the window during which signatures could be collected, required each signature on a separate piece of paper, and banned paying collectors by the signature, thus reducing their motivation. When asked whether these new laws would make voter initiatives more difficult, state Sen. Ray Rodrigues (R) said: "I don't dispute that it will be more difficult to put a referendum on the ballot under the statute, but that's the point."

In Idaho, a new law requires an initiative petition to contain signatures of 6% of the voters in each of the state's 35 state Senate districts (up from any 18 of them before).

In Mississippi last week, the state Supreme Court tossed out the state's entire initiative process on a technicality, thus reversing a 2020 ballot initiative that legalized medical marijuana. It also halted efforts to place a proposal to expand Medicaid on the 2022 ballot.

In short, gerrymandering and voter suppression are the preferred tools for keeping Republicans in control of legislatures in red states and now the one end-run the voters had, the ballot initiative, is slowly being suffocated. (V)

One of Cheney's Challengers Has Admitted to Statutory Rape

One of Donald Trump's top projects for the coming 1½ years is to make sure Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) is defeated in Nov. 2022. Several Republicans have already filed to challenge her, among them state Sen. Anthony Bouchard (R). He recently admitted that when he was 18 and living in Florida, he got a 14-year-old pregnant. He called it a Romeo and Juliet story. That sounds more romantic than the way Florida law describes it: statutory rape. It doesn't matter if it was consensual. Under Florida law, sex between a 14-year-old and 18-year-old is rape and is a felony. The couple got married after the girl became pregnant (with a judge's permission). Three years later they got divorced, and a few years after that she killed herself. Juliet also committed suicide, though Bouchard has yet to utilize that detail in his efforts to sell the parallelism.

Bouchard raised his son but also said: "Some of the things that he's got going on in his life, I certainly don't approve of them." Nosy reporters are surely going to start asking questions. All of this is now out there. We suspect that running as the "family values" candidate may be a bit tough for Bouchard. Fortunately for the GOP, there are 27 other Republican state senators (along with two Democrats), so Cheney is not likely to lack challengers. (V)

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