Biden Plans a Dozen Executive Actions on Day 1

Once Joe Biden has taken the oath of office on Jan. 20 at noon, he will be the president and can immediately start using the powers of the office. And he fully intends to do so, beginning with issuing as many as a dozen executive orders that afternoon.

Among the actions he is expected to take on his first day in office are these:

• Rejoin the Paris climate accord
• Cancel the Keystone pipeline
• Eliminate the ban on travel from majority-Muslim countries
• Extend a pause on student loan payments
• Mandate the use of masks on all federal property and for all interstate travel
• Halt evictions and foreclosures

These are all reversals of Trump policies and do not require congressional approval. In the days ahead, Biden will do other things that do not require congressional approval. However, two of his big-ticket items—a bill to spend $1.9 trillion to provide relief to many Americans hit by the economic fallout from the pandemic, and a bill to provide a pathway to citizenship for 11 million undocumented immigrants (see below)—will require Congress to act. Biden has said he wants to work with Republicans on these issues, but so far we haven't heard any Republicans say they want to work with him. The traditional honeymoon could be over in a day or two.

Biden also has plans for his second and third days in office. On Day 2, he plans to order expanded testing for the coronavirus in order to speed up reopening schools and businesses. On Day 3, he will focus on the economy and direct the cabinet officers installed by then to work on providing economic relief to working families.

Biden also has plans for his second week in office. These include actions relating to criminal justice reform, climate change, immigration, and reuniting children taken from their parents at the border during the Trump administration. Trump took hundreds of actions relating to immigration and they will not be easy to reverse quickly, but Biden has to start somewhere. He will also expand a "Buy America" program that requires the government to buy goods and services domestically whenever that is possible. He will also try to expand access to healthcare and support communities of color.

Of course, doing all these things is different from merely saying he will do all these things. Actions like rescinding some of Trump's XOs are easy, but doing many of the other things will take time and money. Also, until the cabinet secretaries, deputy secretaries, assistant secretaries, and deputy assistant secretaries are in place, there will be no one to actually carry out Biden's plans. If the Senate takes up Trump's impeachment quickly, that could slow down the confirmation process and throw a wrench in the gears of government. (V)

Biden Will Tackle Immigration Early on

The Los Angeles Times is reporting that, during his first days in office, Joe Biden will ask Congress to address immigration reform. His proposal will create a short path to citizenship for the dreamers and a longer one for the rest of the 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States. Front-line essential workers might also get special treatment.

In the past, immigration bills were always compromises in which Republicans got tougher border enforcement and Democrats got an agreement not to deport immigrants already in the country without permission. None of these bills ever passed because while Republicans liked the tougher border enforcement, they didn't want to give up on the idea of deporting the immigrants. In Biden's proposal, the Republicans don't get anything. Of course, it won't get a single Republican vote, so if Democrats are serious about passing it, they will first have to abolish the filibuster. That will be a big internal fight. But if they pull it off and allow the undocumented immigrants to become citizens, it is a safe bet that those folks will remember which party got them citizenship and which one opposed it tooth and nail. For nearly a hundred years, former slaves and their descendants remembered that it was Abraham Lincoln (R) and not James Buchanan (D) or Andrew Johnson (D) who freed the slaves, and voted accordingly. Pulling off immigration reform will give the blue team a large electoral boost.

Under Biden's proposal, immigrants would be eligible for permanent residence in 5 years and citizenship in 3 more years. There would also be an increase in immigration judges, so the backlog of cases could be whittled down. In any event, it would be a 180-degree turn from an immigration policy based on walls and caged children. Even if the bill fails, it would change the conversation, and that could affect Latino citizens who have undocumented friends and relatives, so even a failed bill could help the Democrats. The people who oppose immigration and immigrants aren't going to vote for Democrats no matter what, so Biden won't lose many votes by pushing such a bill, but he could gain some, even if the bill fails, and a lot if it passes. (V)

Atlanta D.A. Is Looking Into Trump's Call to Raffensperger

Fani Willis, the district attorney for Fulton County (Atlanta) is looking into the possibility of investigating Donald Trump's threatening phone call to Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R). In the call, Trump asked Raffensperger to "find" roughly 12,000 more votes for him and suggested that bad things might happen to him if he didn't. Michael Moore, the former U.S. attorney for the middle district of Georgia, said that Trump's call is the kind of thing that comes up in drug cases or organized crime cases all the time.

The call may have violated three different Georgia state laws:

• Solicitation to commit election fraud
• Conspiracy to commit election fraud
• Intentional interference with another person's performance of election duties

Moore isn't the only one who smells a rat here. So does Joshua Morrison, a former senior assistant district attorney in Fulton County. He said: "It seems clearly there was a crime committed."

Willis, who just took office in early January and would love to make a name for herself in heavily Democratic Fulton County, is considering hiring a special assistant from outside her office to help with the case. In addition, David Worley, the only Democrat on Georgia's five-member election board, said he would ask the board to formally request that Willis look into the phone call. If the board refuses (which it might not, because it was a Republican who was the victim of the extortion attempt), Worley will directly ask Willis to look into the matter. (V)

Karl Rove: If Giuliani Represents Trump at Senate Trial, Trump Runs Risk of Conviction

Republican strategist Karl Rove said yesterday that if Donald Trump picks Rudy Giuliani as his lawyer in the upcoming Senate trial, the chances of Trump's being convicted will go up. If he is convicted, the chances of his being disqualified for public office in the future are enormous, since it would take only one Republican to join with the Democrats to get to a majority.

There are many problems with having Giuliani leading Trump's defense. For one, although Giuliani has experience as a prosecutor (decades ago), he has no experience as a defense attorney. But more important is what Trump's defense is. Giuliani might argue that Trump couldn't have incited a riot by falsely claiming that he was cheated out of a win because he really did win and the rioters were trying to stop a false certification of the electoral votes by Congress. Would 34 Republican senators buy into the story that Trump actually won, so the rioters were actually patriots trying to stop the steal? Rove is skeptical of that.

A more traditional defense attorney would never argue that Trump won when 50 courts have said he didn't. He would argue that Trump didn't actually tell the rioters to seize the Capitol, and that he was merely praising his voters for their support. Their breaking and entering the building was their decision, not his. In effect, such a lawyer would be saying it hasn't been proven that there was a relationship between Trump's words and the riot. Republican senators might go for that. Ultimately, it is Trump's call who will defend him and what that lawyer's strategy will be.

Of course, many senators may have already made up their minds. On Saturday, we answered a question about which senators will vote to convict. Another site, BornToRunTheNumbers, also has lists:

• Certain to convict: Collins, Murkowski, Romney, Sasse, and Toomey
• Waiting: Burr, Capito, Cornyn, Cotton, Fischer, Grassley, Inhofe, Lee, McConnell, Portman, Thune, and Tillis
• Certain to acquit: The other 33 Republicans

If this is right and McConnell sends a signal to convict, there could be 67 guilty votes in all. (V)

Riots Changed Public Opinion

For 4 years, Donald Trump's approval rating was rock solid. It stayed in the low-to-mid-forties nearly all the time, with his disapproval in the mid-fifties. He could indeed have shot someone on Fifth Avenue and not lost any supporters, just as he said. But the riot finally changed that. A new CNN/SSRS poll taken after the riot (Jan. 9-14), mostly by cell phone and released yesterday, showed serious slippage for the first time. His approval is now 34% and disapproval is 62%, putting him 28 points under water compared to 13 points under water Oct. 23-26.

SSRS also asked about the election. Nationally, 65% of American adults think that Joe Biden won the election fair and square and 32% think he did not. Of the "did not" crowd, 73% think there is solid evidence that Biden did not win and 22% merely suspect that. That means that almost a quarter of the population believes there is solid evidence that Biden didn't win. In a follow-up question, 29% have no confidence at all that elections reflect the will of the people.

Now on to impeachment. In a 108-word question carefully explaining what impeachment and conviction specifically mean, 51% want Trump convicted and 45% do not want him convicted. SSRS didn't ask for motivation. It could be that some of the 45% are like B.H. of Westborough, MA, whose letter we published yesterday, arguing that not convicting Trump will keep him around and tear the Republican Party to shreds.

Now on to the riot, where 63% say that not enough has been done to penalize the rioters and only 23% say that enough has been done. SSRS also played the blame game. About 65% of Americans blame Trump for the riot (vs. 33% little or no blame), 59% blame the Congressional Republicans (vs. 38% little or no blame), 54% blame the Capitol police (vs. 43% not at all), and 88% blame the rioters (vs. 10% don't blame the rioters).

Another question is whether Trump's presidency has changed the country. About 85% say yes and among them, 31% say it has changed for the better and 65% say it has changed for the worse. Related to that, among Republicans, 43% want to see Trump continue to be treated as the party leader and 53% want to move on. That close-to-even split is going to bedevil the GOP for years to come.

Finally, SSRS also asked about whether recent presidencies have been a success. The scores are Trump 41%, Barack Obama 65%, George W. Bush 31%, and Bill Clinton 68%. There seems to be a pattern here.

In other polling news, in an ABC News/WaPo poll, 68% do not want Trump to give himself a self-pardon while 28% are looking forward to it. All in all, it appears that Trump's core support has dropped from the low 40s to low 30s. Whether it will go up or down in succeeding years depends a lot on how much material that is now hidden comes out as a result of various investigations. (V)

Running the Senate Won't Be Easy

When the Georgia Senate races are certified, the Senate will be equally divided between two caucuses, each with 50 members. On most votes (but not impeachment), the president of the Senate gets to break ties. Sounds simple, but it's not. The problems that occurred in the 107th Senate, which began on Jan. 3, 2001, and was also split 50-50, will come back this year, but on steroids on account of the greater partisanship now than there was then. The leaders of that Senate, Tom Daschle (D) and Trent Lott (R), have coauthored a piece in the Washington Post describing five problems that are going to come up within a few days. Here is a brief summary.

• Organizing resolution: The first thing every new Senate needs to do is pass an organizing resolution. It specifies who is in the leadership, which committees exist and who the chair, ranking member, and other members of those committees are. The resolution requires a simple majority vote, which could pass 51-50, but if the minority feels that an unfair set of ground rules is being forced down its throat there will be hell to pay later. Producing an organizing resolution that both sides consider acceptable will be no mean feat.
  
  
• Committee composition: Closely related to the first item is determining the ratio of Democrats to Republicans on each committee. In 2001, Daschle and Lott agreed to have equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans on each committee. This required moving senators around, like pawns in a chess game. Senators don't like being used as pawns. Telling a senator who has a background in banking and who has waited for years to be on the Banking Committee that no, he is being assigned to the Agriculture Committee in the name of balance is probably not going to go down well. Senators tend to be mopey when they don't get what they want.
  
  
• Committee budgets, staff, and office space: These resources make it possible for the committees to function. Normally the majority gets the lion's share of the resources so it can legislate. All the minority ever does is say "no," and that doesn't require a lot of resources. Daschle and Lott decided to split resources equally. Is soon-to-be Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) willing to give up half the resources to the other party, for which he has basically no respect at all?
  
  
• Ties in committee: Normally, if a bill gets a tie vote in committee, it dies. But if the committees are split evenly, probably every bill that does something other than name a post office for a nonpartisan figure is going to end in a tie vote. What Daschle and Lott agreed to was that in the event of a tie in a committee vote, any Senate member could propose a motion to discharge. There would then be a debate on it for no more than 4 hours. If a majority (including the president of the Senate if need be) voted to discharge the bill, it would come to the floor for a vote.
  
  
• Security: In Jan. 2001, security wasn't a big issue. On Sept. 11, 2001, it became a rather large issue. Due to the events of Jan. 6, 2021, security starts out as a big issue this time. Some rules are needed to ensure the safety of all the senators. We saw last week that some members of Congress feel their personal freedom to bring whatever guns they so choose into the Capitol trumps congressional rules and security procedures. This issue will probably be stickier in the House than in the Senate, but whatever soon-to-be Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Schumer agree on is bound to ruffle some feathers.

Back in 2001, partisan feelings didn't run as high as now, and nothing like the Jan. 6 riot had recently happened. To say that Daschle and Lott were good friends is going too far, but at least they didn't despise each other. Schumer and McConnell are not only not friends, neither has a lot of respect for the other one. Making a deal won't be easy. (V)

Republicans Are at Each Other's Throats

The pitchfork crowd and the three-martini-lunch crowd must have been napping in kindergarten when the teacher talked about the importance of playing together nicely with others. The consequence seems to be all-out war within the Republican Party. Traditional Republicans, which include Mitch McConnell and Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY), want their party back. The big donors and corporate CEOs do too. The Trumpsters who have taken it over have no intention of returning it. The next couple of years are going to be nasty.

In practice, there will be a lot of sound and fury, signifying nothing. The real tests will come in the run-ups to the 2022 primaries, when Trumpy challengers try to take down traditional Republican incumbents and vice-versa. This could be especially tricky for previously traditional House Republicans who voted to toss out the votes of millions of people in Arizona and Pennsylvania. They could conceivably be primaried by both Trumpy and non-Trumpy candidates, leading to bitter three-way primaries.

Even worse is the possibility of extreme right-wing representatives (yes, Andy, Lauren, and Marjorie, we are looking at you) running for governor or senator, as Arizona, Colorado, and Georgia have races for both offices in 2022. In Arizona, a brutal GOP gubernatorial primary featuring the chair of the House Freedom Caucus, Andy Biggs, could hand the governor's mansion to a Democrat, possibly Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), who graciously dropped out of the 2020 Senate race to help now-Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ). Colorado would be an embarrassment, but probably wouldn't change anything as the Democrats are favored in both races. Georgia is a different story, as Stacey Abrams is all but certain to run for governor again and a knock-down drag-out primary could seriously injure Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA). Also, if there is a nasty ideological primary in the Senate race, it can only help Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA), who won by a very narrow margin in 2020. In North Carolina, there will be an open Senate seat, which is sure to be hotly contested by both factions of the Republican Party, especially if Lara Trump, a native of the Tarheel State, runs.

The battles could be very intense if Trump is still a major player in 2022 and if he has lots of money to dole out to his favored candidates. Traditional conservatives facing Trumpeters are likely to be well funded by business interests, leading to very expensive brawls. Wounds from ideological warfare tend to take longer to heal than battles in which the only issue is who is the Trumpiest (or least Trumpy) candidate.

Other states where hot primaries are likely are South Dakota and Wyoming. In the former, Sen. John Thune (R-SD) is certain to face one or more Trumpist opponents. If he is lucky, there will be two or more to divide the Trumpian vote. In Wyoming, Cheney will have her hands full in what should have been a romp.

We will get a clue to the future when Trump is put on trial by the Senate. If only four or five Republican senators vote to convict, then he will be a major force going forward. If he is convicted and banned from public office for life, however, that will greatly strengthen the hand of traditional conservatives.

Also an issue going forward is: "What do Republicans stand for?" Do they support or oppose free trade? Do they support or oppose immigration? How do they feel about the white supremacy movement? What do they want to do about health care? In the long run, it is hard for a political party to win elections if it doesn't know what it stands for, and can't explain what it will do if it wins. (V)

Trump Blows Up the Arizona Republican Party on His Way Out

It's kind of a toss-up which state Republican Party Donald Trump damaged the most, Arizona's or Georgia's. Four years ago, both states were safely GOP. Trump carried them both easily in 2016 and both had two Republican senators. In 2020, Trump lost both of them and both now have two Democratic senators. There is a very real possibility that in Jan. 2023, both will have Democratic governors as well.

Politico's answer to the question is Arizona, primarily because the chair of the Arizona Republican Party is now in a state of open warfare with the Republican governor. For our part, we think it is a toss-up because in Georgia Trump himself is in open warfare with both the Republican governor and the Republican secretary of state.

The specific event that prompted Politico to pick Arizona is that this week the state party is likely to pass resolutions censuring three of the state's most prominent Republicans—Gov. Doug Ducey, former senator Jeff Flake, and Cindy McCain. It will also pass a measure thanking Donald Trump for...well, for being Donald Trump. The reason the state party is doing this is that the new chair, Kelli Ward, who ran in the Republican senatorial primaries in 2016 and 2018, and was crushed by John McCain and Martha McSally, respectively, is Trumpier than Trump. She thinks that what the Arizona party needs to do is move further to the right. Given the Democratic victories in 2018 and 2020, many people are questioning that strategy. One of them is former state House speaker Kirk Adams (R), who said: "The craziness from the state Republican Party ... it's pretty embarrassing. We have been fed a steady diet of conspiracy theories and stolen election rhetoric and, really, QAnon theories from the state Republican Party since before the election, but certainly after."

Ward and Trump are certainly having an effect on a state that is turning purple. Thousands of Republicans have changed their registration to independent since the riot at the Capitol. Business leaders are recoiling at the state GOP. Greater Phoenix Leadership, a group of Arizona CEOs, ran a full-page ad in The Arizona Republic saying: "The political party organization and these elected officials, which some of us have supported in the past, have again embarrassed Arizona on a national stage." In case that is too subtle for you, the "political party organization" referred to specifically means "Kelli Ward."

John McCain is dead but his wife isn't, and she is letting Ward have it with both barrels. She said that Ward "managed to turn Arizona blue in November for the first time since 1996. Maybe she should be reminded that my husband never lost an Arizona election since his first win in 1982." If Ward hangs onto her job until 2022 and the Democrats take over the governor's mansion from the term-limited Ducey, Arizona will officially be a new blue state. (V)

Pardon Me?

In the 2½ days left of his term, there is only one thing Donald Trump can still do (other than brood): issue pardons. Technically, he can issue executive orders, but if he did, on Jan. 20 in the afternoon, Joe Biden would issue an executive order saying: "Executive orders x, y, and z are hereby rescinded." So what would be the point? As a consequence, everyone is expecting a pardonfest to begin tomorrow. According to the White House, the President will issue about 100 pardons (though Trump reportedly will not self-pardon).

In preparation for the big day, it is boom time for pardon brokers. You know, well-connected people who, for the appropriate remuneration, will make sure Trump at least sees the supplicant's request for a pardon. No broker can give a guarantee, as Trump gets to make the call, but the usual arrangement is that the supplicant pays the broker a fee in advance, with a large bonus promised if the pardon is granted. In Trumpworld, everything has a price.

The practice has deep roots. During the Middle Ages, popes sold indulgences, which were basically "Get-out-of-Hell-free" cards. Their sale was one of the causes of the Protestant Reformation, as the peasants didn't like the elites being able to sin to their hearts' content and then buy their way out of Hell. Some things never change.

Anyhow, Bill Clinton gave out pardons on his final days in office, but almost all of them went through normal channels and had been approved by the Dept. of Justice. Only one of them (to fugitive Marc Rich) was suspect. With Trump, the route is supplicant-to-broker-to-Trump, bypassing the Dept. of Justice. If Trump issues enough pardons and they are egregious enough, that could spur a Pardon Reformation—for example, a constitutional amendment requiring pardons to be confirmed by the Senate.

One pardon broker, lobbyist Brett Tolman, has collected tens of thousands of dollars advocating for pardons for the son of a former senator, drug dealers, and Manhattan socialites, among others. Trump's former lawyer, John Dowd, is also raking in big bucks from wealthy felons who want to be pardoned. He knows lots of them. The New York Times obtained a copy of an agreement between a top Trump campaign adviser, Karen Giorno, who got $50,000 as a down payment to seek a pardon for John Kiriakou, a former CIA officer who illegally disclosed classified information. She gets another $50,000 if the pardon is granted. There have been allegations that Rudy Giuliani also saw some business opportunities here, but he denies this.

There is nothing illegal about a lawyer or other person accepting payment for transmitting a pardon request to the president. Anyone can do that. However, there is a standard procedure within the Dept. of Justice, and the people who followed that may feel duped by people with connections to Trump insiders jumping the line. Now, if someone were to offer cash directly to Trump in exchange for a pardon, that would be the crime of bribery. Still, we have little doubt that Trump is working on some scheme to monetize pardons. For example, someone could buy a ($200,000) membership in Mar-a-Lago and then Trump could pardon him. It would be very difficult to prove a connection. (V)

Harris Will Resign Today

Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) is going to resign from the Senate today so she can become President of the Senate (and veep) on Wednesday. However, the Democrats won't lose the seat for long. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) has already said that he will appoint California Secretary of State Alex Padilla (D) as Harris' replacement. The appointment could come as soon as today.

Padilla will serve out the rest of Harris' term, which ends Jan. 3, 2023. He is only 47 and is expected to seek election in his own right in Nov. 2022. Since he won't be an elected senator, rivals who had hoped for the job may challenge him in a primary. Nevertheless, Latinos and unions generally support him, and the only really plausible challenger, Xavier Becerra, has been named to the cabinet, so Padilla is likely to be in the Senate for 30 or 40 years. (V)

Love in the Time of Rioting

If Dwight Eisenhower is looking down on us from on high, he's probably scratching his head about some of the things happening on the Internet now. The Internet is the outgrowth of the ARPANET, the brainchild of ARPA (later known as 'DARPA'), the Defense Dept. Advanced Research Projects Agency he created.

In particular, when it comes to Ike's head-scratching, single women who use dating apps like Tinder, Bumble, PlentyofFish, and Match have been changing their addresses to D.C. and using themselves as bait to catch rioters who have posted photos of themselves in the Capitol. One woman who actually lives in Florida found a man whose idea of the perfect first date was "Storming the Capitol." She promptly turned him over to the FBI for potential prosecution. Since the riot, the FBI has received over 100,000 tips.

A number of women have noticed the surge of conservative men in the D.C. area on the apps recently. Until now, men posing in MAGA hats in the overwhelmingly Democratic District were as rare as fans of AOC in Wyoming. Or fans of Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) anywhere.

Some observers have cheered on these digital vigilantes, but others are worried about invasion of privacy. People who applaud the Florida woman might want to consider how they would feel if the vigilantes were trolling for people who attended a Black Lives Matter protest that turned violent.

The companies that run the dating apps are also scouring them to find people who took part in the insurrection. The ones they find are banned from the site. Profiles that say: "Insurrectionist (M) seeking insurrectionist (F) to have an adventure taking over a government building and holding liberals hostage" definitely raise some red flags for the companies. (V)

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