The Walls Continue to Close In on Trump

The Trump campaign keeps doing whatever it can to overturn the results of the presidential election. And, for the third day in a row (not counting the weekend), it suffered setbacks across the board:

1. Pennsylvania, Part I: One of the cases that the Trump campaign has (had?) going in Pennsylvania was one that claims that Trump campaign poll monitors were not allowed to stand close enough to actually monitor. By a vote of 5-2, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court declared that they weren't buying it. And even the two dissenters noted that while they agreed the poll monitors should have been given better access, there is no basis for overturning the election results.
   
   
2. Pennsylvania, Part II: Meanwhile, with lawyers dropping like flies, Rudy Giuliani decided to personally join the Pennsylvania case that seeks to toss out the state's election results. One wonders if Giuliani's involvement is really a step in the right direction for Team Trump, given that his legal skills are rusty (to be generous), and election law is not his specialty. Oh, and on top of that, Giuliani misrepresented himself as a "member in good standing" of the D.C. bar when, in fact, his license is suspended for failure to pay dues.
   
   Why is Giuliani getting involved in a hopeless case, holding a press conference in a parking lot next to an erotic bookstore across from a crematorium, and generally dragging his own reputation (or what's left of it) through the mud? The New York Times may have figured it out. The key takeaway is: "Ask not what Rudy Giuliani can do for Donald Trump, but what Donald Trump can do for Rudy Giuliani." As to that asking, Giuliani is billing $20,000 a day in legal fees to promote Trump's conspiracy theories before various courts. There are still 26 days left until the presidential electors meet, so at $20,000 per day, Giuliani's bill could end up being a cool $520,000. Of course, Trump can easily deal with this by telling Giuliani to work 10 hours a day on the project and then when Joe Biden is inaugurated anyway, refuse to pay Giuliani on the grounds that he didn't get the job done.
   
   Tuesday's hearing in Pennsylvania was delayed due to telecommunications issues, and when it finally got underway, Giuliani clumsily made his clunker of a legal argument, one that has already failed multiple times in federal and state court. The pro-Trump case is that some Pennsylvania counties allowed voters to "cure" problematic mail-in ballots while others did not, and that the inconsistency therein means the whole election should be overturned. The general opinion of legal scholars who have looked at the Trump campaign's filings is "Uh, huh. Good luck with that." The judge for Tuesday's hearing appeared to be equally unimpressed. It would seem that courts are not generally in the habit of tossing out millions of legitimate votes due to a few thousand votes that might be questionable.
   
   
3. Georgia: Georgia has recounted nearly all its ballots, will get to the remainder today, and then Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) will certify the result. It looks like Donald Trump will gain about 500 votes, which is not close, and is definitely no cigar, given that he trails by 14,000 votes.
   
   
4. Michigan: Trump and his supporters got a brief ray of hope on Tuesday when the two Republicans on the four-member Wayne County board of canvassers said they would not vote to certify the results. The President was thrilled by the news, although he (deliberately?) conflated one county with the whole state:
   
   

   Wow! Michigan just refused to certify the election results! Having courage is a beautiful thing. The USA stands proud!

   — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 18, 2020

   
   Anyhow, the hope among Trump supporters was that the two Wayne County Republicans' act of defiance would somehow spark a resistance movement that would spread across the state and would stop Michigan from certifying its results. And then everyone would climb on their unicorns and ride off into the sunset, to live happily ever after.
   
   As you might guess, the dream did not last long. For reasons that have not been made clear—maybe they were advised they would be hauled before a judge—the two rebel Republicans yielded after just two hours and agreed to certify the results in Wayne County. That means Michigan is set to certify its statewide results today.
   
   
5. Lindsey Graham: Now that he's won re-election, and is apparently impervious to a challenger no matter what he does, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has been doing his best to prove that John Dalberg-Acton (and not Benjamin Franklin) was right when he said "Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are almost always bad men." Although the Senator has absolutely no authority or supervisory capacity when it comes to elections, he has been making phone calls to secretaries of state in several states where Joe Biden had a narrow margin of victory.
   
   Graham did not care to share the precise contents of the phone calls, nor could he explain why they were appropriate, but Secretary Raffensperger in Georgia filled in the blanks on Tuesday. He said that the Senator pressed for him to discard some legal ballots. Graham denied this, but folks in Raffensperger's office, who were privy to the contents of the phone call, confirmed the Secretary's story. Anyhow, it's clear that Graham's ham-fisted attempts to corrupt the election are not working, especially since he does not appear to have noticed that the Arizona secretary of state, Katie Hobbs, is a Democrat.

Naturally, Giuliani and other members of the Trump campaign have expressed their shock and outrage at these various reverses, and promised that they are going to take this to the highest levels of the Court system (i.e., the Supreme Court). That said, Team Trump has a whole bunch of problems:

• They continue to struggle when it comes to recruiting good counsel (much less elite-level counsel).
  
  
• Nobody—neither federal courts nor state, Democratic judges nor Republican—is buying what they are selling.
  
  
• SCOTUS does not particularly want to get involved.
  
  
• Even if Trump's lawyers prevail on their preliminary arguments (i.e., "X number of ballots were mishandled in Y fashion,"), it's a Grand Canyon-sized leap from that to "therefore the results in Z state must be thrown out."
  
  
• Further, Trump's team would need to pull off that Grand Canyon-sized leap in multiple states, not just one.
  
  
• Most states are getting close to certifying their results, which will add another layer of legal difficulty, and will turn Grand Canyon-sized leaps into Earth-to-the-moon sized leaps.

Maybe Team Trump will find a way to pull off the multiple miracles they need. But the smart money (and even the dumb money) says that it's all over but the shoutin'. (Z)

Biden Unveils More of His White House Team

Joe Biden is under the impression that he will be inaugurated as president on Jan. 20, and that he therefore will need to have a staff in place. He is right about this. So, last week, the President-elect announced that Ron Klain would serve as chief of staff. Yesterday, several additional personnel decisions were announced.

To start, jobs were found for several key members of Biden's campaign team:

• Jen O'Malley Dillon, who managed the campaign, will serve as deputy chief of staff. If Klain steps down (and most chiefs of staff eventually do), then Dillon will likely take over for him, which would make her the first ever woman to serve as chief of staff.
  
  
• Julie Chavez Rodriguez, a deputy campaign manager, will be director of the White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs, which means she (and her team) will be the administration's main liaison with state, local, and tribal governments.
  
  
• Mike Donilon, who was the campaign's chief strategist, will be a senior adviser to the president. That is a somewhat broad title, but in Donilon's case will involve helping to prepare Biden's speeches.
  
  
• Steve Ricchetti, who chaired Biden's campaign and also worked in the Obama and Clinton White Houses, will be counselor to the president. That's another very broad title, but whenever a Republican is in the White House, Ricchetti works as a lobbyist, so his job will be to serve as an emissary from the administration to members of Congress, and to key players in the private sector. He will also be expected to do arm twisting, as needed.
  
  
• Dana Remus, who served as general counsel to the Biden campaign and also worked in the Obama White House, will serve as White House Counsel. In general, the White House Counsel offers advice to the president and vice president on legal matters that arise in official business, with vetting and managing judicial appointments as a particular area of focus these days. Some administrations expect the White House Counsel to also function as the president's personal lawyer, but that's not how it's supposed to work. Biden is not likely to abuse his office in this manner.
  
  
• Annie Tomasini, who was the traveling chief of staff during the campaign, will be director of Oval Office Operations. That means she manages the president's schedule. That job becomes much harder, of course, when you can't just copy and paste "executive time" into ten hours of each day's schedule.

In addition, Rep. Cedric Richmond (D-LA), the former chairman of the Congressional Black Caucus, will resign from the House and will serve as a senior adviser to Biden and as the director of the White House Office of Public Engagement. That title alone is a tiny shot across the bow of the S.S. Trump, because "Office of Public Engagement" was the name of that office under Barack Obama, until Trump changed it back to its original name, the Office of Public Liaison. So obviously, another name change is coming. The job of that office is to connect with "interest" groups, though the list of interest groups worthy of being connected with tends to change depending on who is in the White House. Under Democrats, particularly in recent years, the office's focus has been on outreach to minority and LGBTQ communities. Richmond's resignation from Congress will prompt a special election in LA-02. Inasmuch as that district is D+25 and 62% Black, the only question is which Black Democrat will be elected to succeed him.

One of Biden's stated goals was to build an administration that "looks like America," and to announce his picks in a manner that highlights the diversity of his team. The list above includes three white guys, one Black guy, and three women, including one Latina. Not bad, particularly compared to the present administration, but the Cabinet is going to be where the rubber really hits the road. (Z)

Trump's Golden Fed Pick Turns to Lead

Judy Shelton, if she is approved to the Fed Board of Governors, would likely be the last high-profile appointment of Donald Trump's presidency. However, she has expressed...unorthodox views in the past, most notably that the U.S. should return to the gold standard and that perhaps the Fed itself should be abolished. Although Shelton backed off these views once she was nominated by the President, nobody seriously believes that she's had a change of heart. Further, there is little question that Trump picked her because he felt she would take his lead on fiscal policy.

Anyhow, for all of these reasons, all of the Democrats in the Senate, and several of the Republicans (Lamar Alexander, Mitt Romney, and Susan Collins) oppose confirmation for Shelton. That means that if Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is going to sneak her through, he's got no margin for error. With Alexander absent on family business, and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) absent on vice-presidential business, McConnell thought he might be able to pull it off on Tuesday, even with Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) and Rick Scott (R-FL) absent due to COVID-19 quarantine. That would theoretically have left the vote at 48-48, with VP Mike Pence casting the tiebreaker. However, Harris hustled down to D.C. from Delaware, foiling the Majority Leader's plans. Her presence made it 49-48 against, which compelled McConnell to switch his vote to "nay" in order that he might reserve the right to bring up the nomination again. That's a final count, then, of 50-47 against.

It's possible that McConnell (and Trump) will still carry the day. However, Grassley and Scott will be unavailable for the rest of this week, and next week the Senate is on recess for Thanksgiving. Thereafter, Alexander's family business will be complete, and Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ), a "yea" vote, will be replaced by Sen.-elect Mark Kelly (D-AZ), who is presumably a "nay" vote. Put another way, the next time there is a full Senate, it will be 51-49 against confirmation, so McConnell would need to find a day where all the "yea" votes are present, and at least two of the "nay" votes are not. It won't be easy. (Z)

Loeffler Will Debate Warnock

Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) agreed on Tuesday to a televised debate with challenger Rev. Raphael Warnock (D). It will take place on Dec. 6, a month before the runoff election. Sen. David Perdue (R-GA), who will face Jon Ossoff (D) in the other runoff, has already declined to debate. So, Ossoff will "debate" an empty podium, also on Dec. 6.

Generally speaking, there are two reasons that candidates might skip a debate. The first is that their lead is so large, they can only hurt themselves by giving their opponent a platform and exposure. Clearly that does not apply here, as both contests are very close. The second is that the candidate thinks the damage of "They are afraid to debate!" plus the damage of allowing their opponent to have the stage all to themselves is less than the damage that will be done if they actually show up and subject themselves to critical questioning.

Clearly, Loeffler and Perdue did a cost/benefit analysis and reached very different conclusions. From where we sit, this is a little surprising. Loeffler and Ossoff are both mediocre public speakers, while Warnock and Perdue (especially Warnock) have extensive experience and are very polished. So, Perdue should be the one who feels he has the upper hand in a debate, not Loeffler. Maybe she is less confident in her chances on Jan. 5, since she's not really an incumbent and she would need to unify all of the Republican vote from the first round, including the 20% of voters who cast their ballots for Rep. Doug Collins (R-GA). Or, given how things have gone in the last few days (see above), she may be less concerned this week than Perdue was last week when it comes to answering uncomfortable questions about who did and did not win the presidential election.

In any event, the current situation is that Georgia is scheduled for 1½ Senate debates. Our guess, however, is that Perdue will eventually think better of his decision, and will choose to debate Ossoff after all. (Z)

Obama Makes It Official

Given his popularity with the Democratic base, not to mention his close relationship with Joe Biden, Barack Obama could have any position in the cabinet that he wants. Heck, he could probably insist on being appointed to every cabinet post, and Biden would say "Happy to do it Secretary of State-Treasury-Defense-Interior-Agriculture-Commerce-Labor-HHS-HUD-Transportation-Energy-Education-VA-DHS Attorney General Obama!"

Of course, reality invariably intrudes on such fantasies. And Obama had made clear, during the tour being undertaken to support his book, that he's just not interested. He said that if he were to so much as consider an offer of a cabinet post, "Michelle would leave me." There's undoubtedly much truth to that, as she has had her fill of high-profile public life (and, in particular, the racism and threats that were constantly aimed in her direction and that of her family). On top of that, writing books and making movies and giving speeches as an ex-president is a much lower-stress and much higher-paying gig than cabinet secretary. The salary of a cabinet secretary, for those who are wondering, is $210,700. Oh, and you can't collect more than one federal salary at a time, so someone appointed as Secretary of State-Treasury-Defense-Interior-Agriculture-Commerce-Labor-HHS-HUD-Transportation-Energy-Education-VA-DHS Attorney General would still earn just $210,700, and not $2.74 million. (Z)

The Biden Cabinet: Attorney General

Another entry in the series. We are, you will recall, going in the order the departments were created. The positions we've already written up:

• Secretary of State (Nov. 11)
• Secretary of the Treasury (Nov. 13)
• Secretary of Defense (Nov. 17)

And now: Attorney General. This means that even if Biden scoops us by announcing his entire cabinet today (not likely), we'll have gotten to all of the "big four" cabinet posts.

• The Job: The Attorney Generalship, as it currently exists, is something of an accident of history. The post was originally created by the Judiciary Act of 1789, which also laid out the structure of the judiciary. That somewhat implied that the AG was primarily part of the judicial branch. Further, the position was originally part-time, and its holder was expected to provide legal advice to both the president and to Congress.
  
  In other words, the AG was once somewhat a part of all three branches of the federal government, if primarily attached to the judicial branch (yes, Sen.-elect Tuberville, the judiciary is one of the three branches of the federal government). The job did not become a fully executive-branch job until 1870, when the Department of Justice was established. The Congress made that choice in part because the judiciary does not have supervisory authority over any other part of the government, and so adding the Justice Department to that branch made for a wonky fit. Even more important, however, was that Congress wanted vigorous prosecution of the Ku Klux Klan Act and other Reconstruction-era legislation, and sticking Justice in the executive branch (under President Ulysses S. Grant) was the best way to make sure that happened.
  
  Since that time, the AG has had primary responsibility for enforcing the nation's laws and overseeing much of the national law enforcement apparatus, including the United States Marshals Service, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the Federal Bureau of Prisons, and the Drug Enforcement Administration. They also advise the president and vice president on legal matters, oversee legal cases where the federal government is a party, and keep an eye on the conduct of government officials. There is some tension between the fact that the AG is an employee of the president but is also supposed to monitor the president's behavior. Most presidents, and most AGs, have been very careful to negotiate that potential conflict in an ethical manner, but a few president-AG combos have ridden roughshod over it. (Hint: The guilty presidents' names rhyme with Harren Warding, Nichard Rixon, Beorge W. Gush and Tonald Drump.)
  
  
• Considerations: At least half a dozen of Joe Biden's cabinet picks are going to have unusually tough challenges in front of them, but the AG may have the toughest of all. Broadly speaking, the job, and the entire Department of Justice, have been damaged a fair bit by the actions of current AG Bill Barr. Barr, who has done everything possible to advance his belief (the unitary executive theory) that the president should be above the law, has been lambasted by legal experts across the political spectrum for his irregular and inappropriate behavior. That means that the new AG is going to have to work hard to remove the tarnish.
  
  On top of that, the incoming AG is going to be handed several hornets' nests to deal with. Police misconduct, to take one example. The Obamacare lawsuits, to take another. And the biggest will be which members of the Trump administration, if any, should be investigated and/or prosecuted. Trump himself could be in hot water, as could VP Mike Pence, AG Barr, and several other cabinet officers. On one hand, the new AG, and Biden for that matter, do not want to appear to be dispensing victors' justice. On the other hand, they don't want to affirm the lesson that if the president does it (or the VP, or the AG, or whoever), it's not illegal.
  
  It is true that Biden has said he's not enthusiastic about investigating the Trump administration. However, don't put too much stock in that, as Biden is an old master of making it seem as if he was dragged kicking and screaming into embracing tricky political positions. Between the unsavory precedent it would set, and the fact that the Democratic base would be furious, it's hard to imagine that the incoming administration can completely turn a blind eye to what has taken place during the current administration. Even if they just go after one or two folks to send a message, they almost certainly will have to go after someone. So, the new AG will get to figure out how to make that happen while convincing as many voters as possible that the motivation is justice and not politics. One obvious way is for the AG to appoint a highly respected former FBI director or U.S. attorney as a special prosecutor to handle this at arm's length from the Justice Dept. Current FBI Director Christopher Wray might be an interesting choice, although if Trump fires him shortly, some people might think he was just getting revenge by taking the job. If Wray is fired, maybe former U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara might be a good choice. It is unlikely former FBI Director Robert Mueller wants to take another whack at the piñata, but surely the AG can find a suitable special prosecutor if he tries hard enough.
  
  
• Candidate 1, Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL): Jones checks a lot of boxes. He had a long career as a U.S. Attorney, where he did important work prosecuting hate crimes. He's a longtime friend of Biden's, having served as a volunteer on the President-elect's very first campaign for the White House in 1988. He's been a loyal soldier for the Democratic Party in the Senate, even when it hurt his political fortunes (such as voting for conviction in the impeachment trial, or voting against Brett Kavanaugh). Many Democrats, both party leaders and rank-and-file voters, would be pleased to see that service rewarded with a plum job in the Biden administration. Jones is also popular with his Senate colleagues on both sides of the aisle, and would likely sail through the confirmation process.
  
  Jones' main liability is that he's an old(ish) white guy. Biden is very clearly going to give at least one, if not two or three, of the top four Cabinet posts to people who are not white men. If it turns out, based on the picks for other offices, that the AG slot is needed in order to achieve the requisite diversity, then Jones could find himself offered a less prestigious job.
  
  
• Candidate 2, Sally Yates: Yates has 20 years as a federal prosecutor, including 5 years as U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Georgia. She also served under Barack Obama as Deputy Attorney General and, for a little more than a week, under Donald Trump as acting AG. She was fired, of course, due to her refusal to enforce the Muslim ban. That means that she, like Jones, is popular with the Democratic base, which would also appreciate that her nomination would be a real poke in the Donald's eye (in a way that Jones would not be). She's clearly qualified to lead the Justice Department and, as someone who is not a white guy, could be a "diversity" alternative to Jones.
  
  Yates' biggest problem is that she could struggle to be confirmed (unless the Democrats win both of the runoffs in Georgia). Some Republican senators may be personally aggrieved by her actions as acting AG. Others might not want to anger Trump's base.
  
  
• Candidate 3, Tom Perez: Perez also has a fine résumé, having served in the Obama administration as Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights, during which time he brought the hammer down on Joe Arpaio. He then moved on to a term as Secretary of Labor before assuming his current post as chair of the DNC. He's angling for the AG job, and is obviously well connected, up to and including the likely possibility that Obama is advocating for him. Perez would be the second Latino to lead the Justice Department, if confirmed, following Alberto Gonzalez.
  
  That said, Perez faces the same major challenge that Yates does. He got zero Republican votes when he was confirmed as Secretary of Labor, and his service as DNC Chair since then is not likely to have improved his popularity with that caucus. He would also excite fewer Democratic voters than Yates or Jones would, especially since he's getting some of the blame for the underwhelming Democratic performance in this year's House and Senate elections.
  
  
• Candidate 4, California Attorney General Xavier Becerra (D): He has no experience in federal law enforcement, but has served six years as AG/Deputy AG in California. Further, he has more extensive experience in elective office than any other candidate on this list, having served 12 terms in the House. His nomination would, like Perez', please some Latino voters. However, Becerra is also popular with the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, whereas Perez is not. Further, Becerra is less likely to ruffle Republican senators' feathers than Perez.
  
  In terms of issues, Becerra's lack of federal law enforcement experience is certainly something of a problem, particularly when up against so many folks with extensive federal law enforcement backgrounds. On top of that, Becerra is under consideration for other juicy posts, including other jobs in the Biden administration (Secretary of Homeland Security) as well as the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Kamala Harris. Unless Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) decides to appoint Becerra to the Senate, which we think is unlikely because he is too old to be a senator for the next 40 years and too young to be a placeholder, Biden has to appoint Becerra to some cabinet post. Otherwise he and California Secretary of State Alex Padilla, who is 47, will get into a bloody Senate primary in 2022. Better for Biden to give Becerra a job in the cabinet and then let Newsom either appoint Padilla to the Senate now or appoint a placeholder, such as the 74-year-old Rep. Barbara Lee (who is Black), and then let the chips fall where they may in 2022.
  
  
• Candidate 5, Judge Leslie Abrams Gardner: If Biden decides he wants a Black AG, and/or someone with experience on the federal bench, he could turn to Gardner. After taking her law degree at Yale, she worked in private practice for several years, then as Assistant U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Georgia from 2010-14. She was nominated as a district judge by Barack Obama in 2014, and has held that post since. She is also Stacey Abrams' sister, which could influence the President-elect's thinking.
  
  Gardner is clearly a strong candidate, but she would be up against a gaggle of strong candidates, many of whom have longer and more varied experience than she. Further, she's only 45, and could sit on the federal bench for another two or three or four decades. Does she want to give up that sort of job security for a few years as a cabinet official?

This is another job where the favorites are so heavily favored that there have been few other names floated around. Jeh Johnson and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (DFL-MN) have come up as possibilities, but they are surely longshots. It's almost certainly going to be one of the first three people listed above.

And up Friday: Secretary of the Interior. Undoubtedly, it will be hard to contain your excitement and anticipation for 48 whole hours. (Z)

Today's Senate Polls

Looks like the two runoffs are going to be barnburners. The problem is that the polls for the Senate races weren't good at all so take these with as much sodium chloride as you can without risking high blood pressure. In reality, turnout for runoffs and special elections is always much lower than for regular elections. Everything depends on which side is better at turning out its base. As to those Senate polls, we will have an analysis of them tomorrow, so stay tuned. (V)

State	Democrat	D %	Republican	R %	Start	End	Pollster
Georgia	Jon Ossoff	49%	David Perdue*	49%	Nov 16	Nov 16	InsiderAdvantage
Georgia-special	Raphael Warnock	49%	Kelly Loeffler*	48%	Nov 16	Nov 16	InsiderAdvantage

* Denotes incumbent

---

If you wish to contact us, please use one of these addresses. For the first two, please include your initials and city.

• questions@electoral-vote.com    For questions about politics, civics, history, etc. to be answered on a Saturday
• comments@electoral-vote.com   For "letters to the editor" for possible publication on a Sunday
• corrections@electoral-vote.com To tell us about typos or factual errors we should fix
• items@electoral-vote.com            For general suggestions, ideas, etc.

To download a poster about the site to hang up, please click here.

---

Email a link to a friend or share:

---The Votemaster and Zenger