State Averages for President and Senate

This page contains the current averages for each state for both the presidential race and senatorial race (if there is one), calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (RCP, 538, HP, TPM, etc.) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.

In the Senate polls below, an asterisk denotes an incumbent.

President

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Biden 38% Trump 58% +20% Feb 06
Alaska Biden 38% Trump 53% +15% Jan 02
Arizona Biden 47% Trump 45% +2% May 22
Arkansas Biden 34% Trump 60% +26% Jan 02
California Biden 58% Trump 30% +28% May 19
Colorado Biden 53% Trump 40% +13% May 11
Connecticut Biden 56% Trump 33% +23% May 04
D.C. Biden 93% Trump 4% +89% Jan 02
Delaware Biden 56% Trump 40% +16% Jan 19
Florida Biden 48% Trump 47% +1% May 27
Georgia Biden 48% Trump 47% +1% May 18
Hawaii Biden 65% Trump 28% +37% Jan 02
Idaho Biden 29% Trump 58% +29% Jan 02
Illinois Biden 55% Trump 39% +16% Jan 02
Indiana Biden 39% Trump 49% +10% May 23
Iowa Biden 46% Trump 48% +2% May 01
Kansas Biden 40% Trump 52% +12% Mar 11
Kentucky Biden 39% Trump 55% +16% May 15
Louisiana Biden 38% Trump 58% +20% Jan 02
Maine Biden 52% Trump 42% +10% Mar 03
Maryland Biden 59% Trump 35% +24% May 23
Massachusetts Biden 63% Trump 32% +31% May 06
Michigan Biden 49% Trump 42% +7% May 19
Minnesota Biden 49% Trump 44% +5% May 20
Mississippi Biden 38% Trump 49% +11% Apr 09
Missouri Biden 42% Trump 52% +10% Feb 27
Montana Biden 40% Trump 45% +5% Apr 27
Nebraska Biden 33% Trump 61% +28% Jan 02
Nevada Biden 44% Trump 41% +3% Feb 21
New Hampshire Biden 50% Trump 42% +8% Apr 27
New Jersey Biden 55% Trump 34% +21% May 04
New Mexico Biden 52% Trump 40% +12% Apr 21
New York Biden 57% Trump 32% +25% May 21
North Carolina Biden 45% Trump 44% +1% May 21
North Dakota Biden 38% Trump 55% +17% Mar 05
Ohio Biden 49% Trump 51% +2% May 10
Oklahoma Biden 33% Trump 57% +24% Mar 08
Oregon Biden 52% Trump 41% +11% Jan 02
Pennsylvania Biden 48% Trump 39% +9% May 14
Rhode Island Biden 55% Trump 40% +15% Jan 02
South Carolina Biden 42% Trump 52% +10% May 26
South Dakota Biden 32% Trump 62% +30% Jan 02
Tennessee Biden 36% Trump 53% +17% May 01
Texas Biden 48% Trump 52% +4% May 10
Utah Biden 41% Trump 44% +3% May 15
Vermont Biden 61% Trump 33% +28% Jan 02
Virginia Biden 51% Trump 39% +12% May 16
Washington Biden 58% Trump 34% +24% May 20
West Virginia Biden 27% Trump 69% +42% Jan 02
Wisconsin Biden 48% Trump 38% +10% May 14
Wyoming Biden 23% Trump 70% +47% Jan 02


Senate

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Doug Jones* 42% Tommy Tuberville 50% +8% Feb 06
Alaska Candidate unknown 45% Dan Sullivan* 49% +4% Nov 04
Arizona Mark Kelly 51% Martha McSally* 41% +10% May 22
Arkansas No Democrat filed 40% Tom Cotton* 57% +17% Nov 04
Colorado John Hickenlooper 48% Cory Gardner* 31% +17% Apr 19
Delaware Chris Coons* 56% Candidate unknown 42% +14% Nov 04
Georgia Candidate unknown 45% David Perdue* 53% +8% Nov 04
Georgia-special _Georgia-special!D 41% _Georgia-special!R 54% +13% Nov 04
Idaho Candidate unknown 34% Jim Risch* 66% +32% Nov 04
Illinois Dick Durbin* 53% Mark Curran 43% +10% Nov 04
Iowa Theresa Greenfield 42% Joni Ernst* 43% +1% May 01
Kansas Candidate unknown 43% Candidate unknown 52% +9% Nov 04
Kentucky Amy McGrath 41% Mitch McConnell* 56% +15% Nov 04
Louisiana Candidate unknown 43% Bill Cassidy* 57% +14% Nov 04
Maine Sara Gideon 51% Susan Collins* 42% +9% May 18
Massachusetts Candidate unknown 62% Candidate unknown 38% +24% Nov 04
Michigan Gary Peters* 46% John James 37% +9% Apr 29
Minnesota Tina Smith* 53% Candidate unknown 43% +10% Nov 04
Mississippi Mike Espy 43% Cindy Hyde-Smith* 53% +10% Feb 28
Montana Steve Bullock 46% Steve Daines* 39% +7% Apr 27
Nebraska Candidate unknown 31% Ben Sasse* 65% +34% Nov 04
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen* 52% Candidate unknown 48% +4% Nov 04
New Jersey Cory Booker* 56% Candidate unknown 42% +14% Nov 04
New Mexico Ben Ray Lujan 55% Gavin Clarkson 45% +10% Nov 04
North Carolina Cal Cunningham 43% Thom Tillis* 43% +0% May 13
Oklahoma Candidate unknown 29% Jim Inhofe* 68% +39% Nov 04
Oregon Jeff Merkley* 55% Candidate unknown 38% +17% Nov 04
Rhode Island Jack Reed* 71% Candidate unknown 29% +42% Nov 04
South Carolina Jaime Harrison 42% Lindsey Graham* 42% +0% May 26
South Dakota Candidate unknown 29% Mike Rounds* 51% +22% Nov 04
Tennessee Candidate unknown 32% Candidate unknown 62% +30% Nov 04
Texas Mary Hegar 24% John Cornyn* 37% +13% Apr 28
Virginia Mark Warner* 49% Candidate unknown 48% +1% Nov 04
West Virginia Candidate unknown 35% Shelley Moore Capito* 62% +27% Nov 04
Wyoming Candidate unknown 18% Cynthia Lummis 72% +54% Nov 04