State Averages for President and Senate

This page contains the current averages for each state for both the presidential race and senatorial race (if there is one), calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (RCP, 538, HP, TPM, etc.) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.

In the Senate polls below, an asterisk denotes an incumbent.

President

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Biden 36% Trump 58% +22% Aug 02
Alaska Biden 44% Trump 50% +6% Jul 24
Arizona Biden 49% Trump 43% +6% Jul 26
Arkansas Biden 45% Trump 47% +2% Jun 10
California Biden 67% Trump 28% +39% Jul 27
Colorado Biden 53% Trump 40% +13% Jul 24
Connecticut Biden 56% Trump 33% +23% May 04
D.C. Biden 93% Trump 4% +89% Jan 02
Delaware Biden 56% Trump 40% +16% Jan 19
Florida Biden 49% Trump 43% +6% Jul 23
Georgia Biden 46% Trump 46% +0% Jul 31
Hawaii Biden 65% Trump 28% +37% Jan 02
Idaho Biden 29% Trump 58% +29% Jan 02
Illinois Biden 55% Trump 39% +16% Jan 02
Indiana Biden 38% Trump 55% +17% Aug 02
Iowa Biden 43% Trump 45% +2% Aug 03
Kansas Biden 43% Trump 50% +7% Aug 06
Kentucky Biden 38% Trump 55% +17% Aug 03
Louisiana Biden 38% Trump 58% +20% Jan 02
Maine Biden 52% Trump 37% +15% Aug 03
Maryland Biden 59% Trump 35% +24% May 23
Massachusetts Biden 55% Trump 23% +32% Jul 20
Michigan Biden 49% Trump 42% +7% Jul 29
Minnesota Biden 50% Trump 41% +9% Jul 23
Mississippi Biden 41% Trump 56% +15% Feb 28
Missouri Biden 43% Trump 50% +7% Jul 01
Montana Biden 42% Trump 53% +11% Aug 02
Nebraska Biden 33% Trump 61% +28% Jan 02
Nevada Biden 44% Trump 41% +3% Feb 21
New Hampshire Biden 53% Trump 40% +13% Jul 28
New Jersey Biden 51% Trump 33% +18% Jul 12
New Mexico Biden 53% Trump 39% +14% Jun 13
New York Biden 57% Trump 32% +25% Jun 25
North Carolina Biden 49% Trump 45% +4% Jul 31
North Dakota Biden 38% Trump 55% +17% Mar 05
Ohio Biden 44% Trump 45% +1% Jul 24
Oklahoma Biden 36% Trump 55% +19% Jun 04
Oregon Biden 52% Trump 41% +11% Jan 02
Pennsylvania Biden 48% Trump 41% +7% Jul 26
Rhode Island Biden 55% Trump 40% +15% Jan 02
South Carolina Biden 43% Trump 48% +5% Aug 03
South Dakota Biden 32% Trump 62% +30% Jan 02
Tennessee Biden 42% Trump 51% +9% May 22
Texas Biden 47% Trump 46% +1% Aug 02
Utah Biden 31% Trump 50% +19% Aug 01
Vermont Biden 61% Trump 33% +28% Jan 02
Virginia Biden 51% Trump 40% +11% Jul 26
Washington Biden 62% Trump 28% +34% Jul 27
West Virginia Biden 27% Trump 69% +42% Jan 02
Wisconsin Biden 48% Trump 39% +9% Jul 24
Wyoming Biden 23% Trump 70% +47% Jan 02


Senate

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Doug Jones* 35% Tommy Tuberville 52% +17% Aug 02
Alaska Al Gross 34% Dan Sullivan* 39% +5% Jul 08
Arizona Mark Kelly 52% Martha McSally* 39% +13% Jul 22
Arkansas No Democrat filed 40% Tom Cotton* 57% +17% Jan 01
Colorado John Hickenlooper 48% Cory Gardner* 42% +6% Jul 26
Delaware Chris Coons* 56% Candidate unknown 42% +14% Jan 01
Georgia Jon Ossoff 43% David Perdue* 48% +5% Jul 31
Georgia-special _Georgia-special!D 41% _Georgia-special!R 54% +13% Jan 01
Idaho Paulette Jordan 34% Jim Risch* 66% +32% Jan 01
Illinois Dick Durbin* 53% Mark Curran 43% +10% Jan 01
Iowa Theresa Greenfield 44% Joni Ernst* 42% +2% Aug 03
Kansas Barbara Bollier 42% Roger Marshall 43% +1% Aug 06
Kentucky Amy McGrath 40% Mitch McConnell* 51% +11% Aug 03
Louisiana Candidate unknown 43% Bill Cassidy* 57% +14% Jan 01
Maine Sara Gideon 47% Susan Collins* 43% +4% Aug 03
Massachusetts Candidate unknown 62% Candidate unknown 38% +24% Jan 01
Michigan Gary Peters* 49% John James 40% +9% Jul 29
Minnesota Tina Smith* 53% Candidate unknown 43% +10% Jan 01
Mississippi Mike Espy 41% Cindy Hyde-Smith* 49% +8% May 28
Montana Steve Bullock 44% Steve Daines* 50% +6% Aug 02
Nebraska Chris Janicek 31% Ben Sasse* 65% +34% Jan 01
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen* 52% Candidate unknown 48% +4% Jan 01
New Jersey Cory Booker* 56% Rik Mehta 42% +14% Jan 01
New Mexico Ben Ray Lujan 48% Mark Ronchetti 34% +14% Jun 13
North Carolina Cal Cunningham 48% Thom Tillis* 39% +9% Jul 31
Oklahoma Abby Broyles 29% Jim Inhofe* 68% +39% Jan 01
Oregon Jeff Merkley* 55% Jo Rae Perkins 38% +17% Jan 01
Rhode Island Jack Reed* 71% Allen Waters 29% +42% Jan 01
South Carolina Jaime Harrison 44% Lindsey Graham* 44% +0% Aug 03
South Dakota Daniel Ahlers 29% Mike Rounds* 51% +22% Jan 01
Tennessee Marquita Bradshaw 32% Bill Hagerty 62% +30% Jan 01
Texas Mary Hegar 38% John Cornyn* 44% +6% Aug 02
Virginia Mark Warner* 49% Daniel Gade 48% +1% Jan 01
West Virginia Paula Swearengin 35% Shelley Moore Capito* 62% +27% Jan 01
Wyoming Candidate unknown 18% Cynthia Lummis 72% +54% Jan 01