State Averages for President and Senate

This page contains the current averages for each state for both the presidential race and senatorial race (if there is one), calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (RCP, 538, HP, TPM, etc.) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.

In the Senate polls below, an asterisk denotes an incumbent.

President

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Biden 37% Trump 62% +25% Nov 03
Alaska Biden 43% Trump 54% +11% Nov 03
Arizona Biden 50% Trump 49% +1% Nov 03
Arkansas Biden 35% Trump 63% +28% Nov 03
California Biden 64% Trump 34% +30% Nov 03
Colorado Biden 52% Trump 40% +12% Nov 03
Connecticut Biden 59% Trump 39% +20% Nov 03
D.C. Biden 92% Trump 5% +87% Nov 03
Delaware Biden 59% Trump 40% +19% Nov 03
Florida Biden 48% Trump 51% +3% Nov 03
Georgia Biden 50% Trump 49% +1% Nov 03
Hawaii Biden 65% Trump 34% +31% Nov 03
Idaho Biden 33% Trump 64% +31% Nov 03
Illinois Biden 57% Trump 41% +16% Nov 03
Indiana Biden 41% Trump 57% +16% Nov 03
Iowa Biden 45% Trump 53% +8% Nov 03
Kansas Biden 41% Trump 57% +16% Nov 03
Kentucky Biden 36% Trump 62% +26% Nov 03
Louisiana Biden 40% Trump 59% +19% Nov 03
Maine Biden 55% Trump 44% +11% Nov 03
Maryland Biden 65% Trump 33% +32% Nov 03
Massachusetts Biden 65% Trump 33% +32% Nov 03
Michigan Biden 51% Trump 48% +3% Nov 03
Minnesota Biden 53% Trump 45% +8% Nov 03
Mississippi Biden 40% Trump 59% +19% Nov 03
Missouri Biden 41% Trump 57% +16% Nov 03
Montana Biden 40% Trump 57% +17% Nov 03
Nebraska Biden 39% Trump 59% +20% Nov 03
Nevada Biden 50% Trump 48% +2% Nov 03
New Hampshire Biden 53% Trump 46% +7% Nov 03
New Jersey Biden 57% Trump 41% +16% Nov 03
New Mexico Biden 54% Trump 44% +10% Nov 03
New York Biden 56% Trump 43% +13% Nov 03
North Carolina Biden 49% Trump 50% +1% Nov 03
North Dakota Biden 32% Trump 65% +33% Nov 03
Ohio Biden 45% Trump 53% +8% Nov 03
Oklahoma Biden 32% Trump 65% +33% Nov 03
Oregon Biden 57% Trump 40% +17% Nov 03
Pennsylvania Biden 50% Trump 49% +1% Nov 03
Rhode Island Biden 60% Trump 39% +21% Nov 03
South Carolina Biden 43% Trump 55% +12% Nov 03
South Dakota Biden 36% Trump 62% +26% Nov 03
Tennessee Biden 37% Trump 61% +24% Nov 03
Texas Biden 46% Trump 52% +6% Nov 03
Utah Biden 38% Trump 58% +20% Nov 03
Vermont Biden 66% Trump 31% +35% Nov 03
Virginia Biden 54% Trump 44% +10% Nov 03
Washington Biden 58% Trump 39% +19% Nov 03
West Virginia Biden 30% Trump 69% +39% Nov 03
Wisconsin Biden 50% Trump 49% +1% Nov 03
Wyoming Biden 27% Trump 70% +43% Nov 03


Senate

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Doug Jones* 39% Tommy Tuberville 61% +22% Nov 03
Alaska Al Gross 34% Dan Sullivan* 62% +28% Nov 03
Arizona Mark Kelly 51% Martha McSally* 49% +2% Nov 03
Arkansas No Democrat filed 33% Tom Cotton* 67% +34% Nov 03
Colorado John Hickenlooper 53% Cory Gardner* 44% +9% Nov 03
Delaware Chris Coons* 60% Lauren Witzke 38% +22% Nov 03
Georgia Jon Ossoff 49% David Perdue* 49% +0% Nov 16
Georgia-special _Georgia-special!D 49% _Georgia-special!R 48% +1% Nov 16
Idaho Paulette Jordan 33% Jim Risch* 62% +29% Nov 03
Illinois Dick Durbin* 54% Mark Curran 40% +14% Nov 03
Iowa Theresa Greenfield 45% Joni Ernst* 52% +7% Nov 03
Kansas Barbara Bollier 42% Roger Marshall 53% +11% Nov 03
Kentucky Amy McGrath 38% Mitch McConnell* 58% +20% Nov 03
Louisiana Candidate unknown 21% Bill Cassidy* 59% +38% Nov 03
Maine Sara Gideon 43% Susan Collins* 51% +8% Nov 03
Massachusetts Ed Markey* 67% Kevin O`Connor 32% +35% Nov 03
Michigan Gary Peters* 50% John James 48% +2% Nov 03
Minnesota Tina Smith* 49% Jason Lewis 44% +5% Nov 03
Mississippi Mike Espy 40% Cindy Hyde-Smith* 58% +18% Nov 03
Montana Steve Bullock 45% Steve Daines* 55% +10% Nov 03
Nebraska Chris Janicek 26% Ben Sasse* 67% +41% Nov 03
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen* 57% Corky Messner 41% +16% Nov 03
New Jersey Cory Booker* 61% Rik Mehta 38% +23% Nov 03
New Mexico Ben Ray Lujan 51% Mark Ronchetti 46% +5% Nov 03
North Carolina Cal Cunningham 47% Thom Tillis* 49% +2% Nov 03
Oklahoma Abby Broyles 33% Jim Inhofe* 63% +30% Nov 03
Oregon Jeff Merkley* 58% Jo Rae Perkins 39% +19% Nov 03
Rhode Island Jack Reed* 66% Allen Waters 34% +32% Nov 03
South Carolina Jaime Harrison 42% Lindsey Graham* 56% +14% Nov 03
South Dakota Daniel Ahlers 32% Mike Rounds* 68% +36% Nov 03
Tennessee Marquita Bradshaw 35% Bill Hagerty 62% +27% Nov 03
Texas Mary Hegar 44% John Cornyn* 54% +10% Nov 03
Virginia Mark Warner* 56% Daniel Gade 44% +12% Nov 03
West Virginia Paula Swearengin 33% Shelley Moore Capito* 65% +32% Nov 03
Wyoming Merav Ben-David 27% Cynthia Lummis 73% +46% Nov 03