State Averages for President and Senate

This page contains the current averages for each state for both the presidential race and senatorial race (if there is one), calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (RCP, 538, HP, TPM, etc.) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.

In the Senate polls below, an asterisk denotes an incumbent.

President

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Biden 36% Trump 58% +22% Aug 02
Alaska Biden 44% Trump 50% +6% Jul 24
Arizona Biden 49% Trump 43% +6% Sep 16
Arkansas Biden 45% Trump 47% +2% Jun 10
California Biden 60% Trump 31% +29% Sep 13
Colorado Biden 50% Trump 40% +10% Sep 05
Connecticut Biden 52% Trump 32% +20% May 24
D.C. Biden 93% Trump 4% +89% Jan 02
Delaware Biden 58% Trump 37% +21% Aug 22
Florida Biden 49% Trump 46% +3% Sep 18
Georgia Biden 45% Trump 46% +1% Sep 16
Hawaii Biden 65% Trump 28% +37% Jan 02
Idaho Biden 29% Trump 58% +29% Jan 02
Illinois Biden 55% Trump 39% +16% Jan 02
Indiana Biden 38% Trump 55% +17% Aug 02
Iowa Biden 45% Trump 47% +2% Sep 05
Kansas Biden 42% Trump 49% +7% Aug 09
Kentucky Biden 38% Trump 58% +20% Sep 14
Louisiana Biden 38% Trump 58% +20% Jan 02
Maine Biden 57% Trump 38% +19% Sep 16
Maryland Biden 59% Trump 35% +24% May 23
Massachusetts Biden 69% Trump 31% +38% Aug 27
Michigan Biden 50% Trump 40% +10% Sep 14
Minnesota Biden 51% Trump 42% +9% Sep 17
Mississippi Biden 41% Trump 56% +15% Feb 28
Missouri Biden 45% Trump 53% +8% Sep 17
Montana Biden 42% Trump 49% +7% Sep 16
Nebraska Biden 33% Trump 61% +28% Jan 02
Nevada Biden 46% Trump 42% +4% Sep 10
New Hampshire Biden 45% Trump 42% +3% Sep 11
New Jersey Biden 58% Trump 40% +18% Sep 07
New Mexico Biden 54% Trump 39% +15% Sep 02
New York Biden 63% Trump 32% +31% Aug 22
North Carolina Biden 48% Trump 46% +2% Sep 18
North Dakota Biden 38% Trump 55% +17% Mar 05
Ohio Biden 45% Trump 48% +3% Sep 15
Oklahoma Biden 35% Trump 60% +25% Sep 08
Oregon Biden 51% Trump 39% +12% Sep 08
Pennsylvania Biden 50% Trump 44% +6% Sep 14
Rhode Island Biden 55% Trump 40% +15% Jan 02
South Carolina Biden 45% Trump 51% +6% Sep 14
South Dakota Biden 32% Trump 62% +30% Jan 02
Tennessee Biden 42% Trump 51% +9% May 22
Texas Biden 46% Trump 48% +2% Sep 18
Utah Biden 35% Trump 53% +18% Sep 12
Vermont Biden 61% Trump 33% +28% Jan 02
Virginia Biden 53% Trump 39% +14% Sep 07
Washington Biden 62% Trump 28% +34% Jul 27
West Virginia Biden 27% Trump 69% +42% Jan 02
Wisconsin Biden 50% Trump 43% +7% Sep 16
Wyoming Biden 23% Trump 70% +47% Jan 02


Senate

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Doug Jones* 35% Tommy Tuberville 52% +17% Aug 02
Alaska Al Gross 43% Dan Sullivan* 43% +0% Aug 28
Arizona Mark Kelly 51% Martha McSally* 41% +10% Sep 16
Arkansas No Democrat filed 40% Tom Cotton* 57% +17% Jan 01
Colorado John Hickenlooper 51% Cory Gardner* 46% +5% Sep 05
Delaware Chris Coons* 56% Candidate unknown 42% +14% Jan 01
Georgia Jon Ossoff 43% David Perdue* 43% +0% Sep 16
Georgia-special _Georgia-special!D 41% _Georgia-special!R 54% +13% Jan 01
Idaho Paulette Jordan 34% Jim Risch* 66% +32% Jan 01
Illinois Dick Durbin* 53% Mark Curran 43% +10% Jan 01
Iowa Theresa Greenfield 45% Joni Ernst* 42% +3% Sep 17
Kansas Barbara Bollier 43% Roger Marshall 45% +2% Aug 09
Kentucky Amy McGrath 41% Mitch McConnell* 53% +12% Sep 14
Louisiana Candidate unknown 43% Bill Cassidy* 57% +14% Jan 01
Maine Sara Gideon 52% Susan Collins* 43% +9% Sep 16
Massachusetts Ed Markey* 62% Kevin O`Connor 38% +24% Jan 01
Michigan Gary Peters* 48% John James 38% +10% Sep 14
Minnesota Tina Smith* 49% Jason Lewis 39% +10% Sep 17
Mississippi Mike Espy 41% Cindy Hyde-Smith* 49% +8% May 28
Montana Steve Bullock 44% Steve Daines* 45% +1% Sep 16
Nebraska Chris Janicek 31% Ben Sasse* 65% +34% Jan 01
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen* 52% Corky Messner 48% +4% Jan 01
New Jersey Cory Booker* 52% Rik Mehta 28% +24% Sep 07
New Mexico Ben Ray Lujan 49% Mark Ronchetti 40% +9% Sep 02
North Carolina Cal Cunningham 46% Thom Tillis* 41% +5% Sep 15
Oklahoma Abby Broyles 33% Jim Inhofe* 57% +24% Sep 08
Oregon Jeff Merkley* 55% Jo Rae Perkins 38% +17% Jan 01
Rhode Island Jack Reed* 71% Allen Waters 29% +42% Jan 01
South Carolina Jaime Harrison 48% Lindsey Graham* 48% +0% Sep 14
South Dakota Daniel Ahlers 29% Mike Rounds* 51% +22% Jan 01
Tennessee Marquita Bradshaw 32% Bill Hagerty 62% +30% Jan 01
Texas Mary Hegar 41% John Cornyn* 46% +5% Sep 18
Virginia Mark Warner* 55% Daniel Gade 38% +17% Sep 07
West Virginia Paula Swearengin 35% Shelley Moore Capito* 62% +27% Jan 01
Wyoming Merav Ben-David 18% Cynthia Lummis 72% +54% Jan 01