State Averages for President and Senate

This page contains the current averages for each state for both the presidential race and senatorial race (if there is one), calculated using our algorithm. It is worth noting that our average may differ from other published averages (RCP, 538, HP, TPM, etc.) because each site has a different algorithm. Some average the most recent 3 or 4 or some other number of polls, no matter how old they are. Others use time as the primary criterion for inclusion or not. Also, different sites use different polls. We try to rigorously exclude polls from firms that are basically campaign consultants, that is, whose business model is to help elect candidates. Not everyone excludes these. All these differences in methodology can lead to different results.

In the Senate polls below, an asterisk denotes an incumbent.

President

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Clinton 41% Trump 34% +7% Primary Tue. March 3

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 44
   Bernie Sanders: 9
Alaska Clinton 23% Trump 25% +2% Primary Sat. April 4

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 3
   Bernie Sanders: 13
Arizona Clinton 30% Trump 32% +2% Primary Tue. March 17

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 42
   Bernie Sanders: 33
Arkansas Clinton 41% Trump 34% +7% Primary Tue. March 3

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 22
   Bernie Sanders: 10
California Clinton 41% Trump 34% +7% Primary Tue. March 3

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 269
   Bernie Sanders: 206
Colorado Clinton 41% Trump 34% +7% Primary Tue. March 3

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 25
   Bernie Sanders: 41
Connecticut Clinton 23% Trump 25% +2% Primary Tue. April 28

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 28
   Bernie Sanders: 27
D.C. Clinton 39% Trump 49% +10% Primary Tue. June 16

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 12
   Bernie Sanders: 9
Delaware Clinton 23% Trump 25% +2% Primary Tue. April 28

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 16
   Bernie Sanders: 4
Florida Clinton 30% Trump 32% +2% Primary Tue. March 17

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 141
   Bernie Sanders: 73
Georgia Clinton 30% Trump 32% +2% Primary Tue. March 24

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 73
   Bernie Sanders: 29
Hawaii Clinton 23% Trump 25% +2% Primary Sat. April 4

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 8
   Bernie Sanders: 17
Idaho Clinton 30% Trump 32% +2% Primary Tue. March 10

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 5
   Bernie Sanders: 18
Illinois Clinton 30% Trump 32% +2% Primary Tue. March 17

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 79
   Bernie Sanders: 77
Indiana Clinton 40% Trump 46% +6% Primary Tue. May 5

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 39
   Bernie Sanders: 44
Iowa Clinton 50% Trump 50% +0% Caucus Mon. February 3

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 23
   Bernie Sanders: 21
Kansas Clinton 40% Trump 46% +6% Primary Sat. May 2

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 10
   Bernie Sanders: 23
Kentucky Clinton 40% Trump 46% +6% Primary Tue. May 19

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 28
   Bernie Sanders: 27
Louisiana Clinton 23% Trump 25% +2% Primary Sat. April 4

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 37
   Bernie Sanders: 14
Maine Clinton 41% Trump 34% +7% Primary Tue. March 3

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 8
   Bernie Sanders: 17
Maryland Clinton 23% Trump 25% +2% Primary Tue. April 28

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 60
   Bernie Sanders: 35
Massachusetts Clinton 41% Trump 34% +7% Primary Tue. March 3

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 46
   Bernie Sanders: 45
Michigan Clinton 30% Trump 32% +2% Primary Tue. March 10

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 63
   Bernie Sanders: 67
Minnesota Clinton 41% Trump 34% +7% Primary Tue. March 3

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 31
   Bernie Sanders: 46
Mississippi Clinton 30% Trump 32% +2% Primary Tue. March 10

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 31
   Bernie Sanders: 5
Missouri Clinton 30% Trump 32% +2% Primary Tue. March 10

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 36
   Bernie Sanders: 35
Montana Clinton 39% Trump 49% +10% Primary Tue. June 2

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 10
   Bernie Sanders: 11
Nebraska Clinton 40% Trump 46% +6% Primary Tue. May 12

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 10
   Bernie Sanders: 15
Nevada Clinton 50% Trump 50% +0% Caucus Sat. February 22

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 20
   Bernie Sanders: 15
New Hampshire Clinton 50% Trump 50% +0% Primary Tue February 11

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 9
   Bernie Sanders: 15
New Jersey Clinton 39% Trump 49% +10% Primary Tue June 2

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 79
   Bernie Sanders: 47
New Mexico Clinton 39% Trump 49% +10% Primary Tue June 2

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 18
   Bernie Sanders: 16
New York Clinton 23% Trump 25% +2% Primary Tue April 28

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 139
   Bernie Sanders: 108
North Carolina Clinton 41% Trump 34% +7% Primary Tue. March 3

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 60
   Bernie Sanders: 47
North Dakota Clinton 30% Trump 32% +2% Caucus Tue. March 10

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 5
   Bernie Sanders: 13
Ohio Clinton 30% Trump 32% +2% Primary Tue. March 17

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 81
   Bernie Sanders: 62
Oklahoma Clinton 41% Trump 34% +7% Primary Tue. March 3

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 17
   Bernie Sanders: 21
Oregon Clinton 40% Trump 46% +6% Primary Tue. May 19

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 25
   Bernie Sanders: 36
Pennsylvania Clinton 23% Trump 25% +2% Primary Tue. April 28

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 106
   Bernie Sanders: 83
Rhode Island Clinton 23% Trump 25% +2% Primary Tue. April 28

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 11
   Bernie Sanders: 13
South Carolina Clinton 50% Trump 0% +50% Primary Sat. February 29

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 39
   Bernie Sanders: 14
South Dakota Clinton 39% Trump 49% +10% Primary Tue. June 2

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 10
   Bernie Sanders: 10
Tennessee Clinton 41% Trump 34% +7% Primary Tue. March 3

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 44
   Bernie Sanders: 23
Texas Clinton 41% Trump 34% +7% Primary Tue. March 3

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 147
   Bernie Sanders: 75
Utah Clinton 41% Trump 34% +7% Primary Tue. March 3

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 6
   Bernie Sanders: 27
Vermont Clinton 41% Trump 34% +7% Primary Tue. March 3

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 0
   Bernie Sanders: 16
Virginia Clinton 41% Trump 34% +7% Primary Tue. March 3

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 62
   Bernie Sanders: 33
Washington Clinton 30% Trump 32% +2% Primary Tue. March 10

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 27
   Bernie Sanders: 74
West Virginia Clinton 40% Trump 46% +6% Primary Tue. May 12

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 11
   Bernie Sanders: 18
Wisconsin Clinton 23% Trump 25% +2% Primary Tue. April 7

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 38
   Bernie Sanders: 48
Wyoming Clinton 23% Trump 25% +2% Caucus Sat. April 4

2016 Delegates:
   Hillary Clinton: 7
   Bernie Sanders: 7


Senate

State Democrat Dem % Republican GOP % Lead End date
Alabama Doug Jones 50% Candidate unknown 48% +2% Nov 04
Alaska Candidate unknown 45% Dan Sullivan 49% +4% Nov 04
Arizona Mark Kelly 41% Martha McSally 53% +12% Nov 04
Arkansas Candidate unknown 40% Tom Cotton 57% +17% Nov 04
Colorado John Hickenlooper 45% Cory Gardner 50% +5% Nov 04
Delaware Chris Coons 56% Candidate unknown 42% +14% Nov 04
Georgia Candidate unknown 45% David Perdue 53% +8% Nov 04
Georgia-special _Georgia-special!D 41% _Georgia-special!R 54% +13% Nov 04
Idaho Candidate unknown 34% Jim Risch 66% +32% Nov 04
Illinois Dick Durbin 53% Candidate unknown 43% +10% Nov 04
Iowa Candidate unknown 44% Joni Ernst 52% +8% Nov 04
Kansas Candidate unknown 43% Candidate unknown 52% +9% Nov 04
Kentucky Candidate unknown 41% Mitch McConnell 56% +15% Nov 04
Louisiana Candidate unknown 43% Bill Cassidy 57% +14% Nov 04
Maine Candidate unknown 32% Susan Collins 68% +36% Nov 04
Massachusetts Ed Markey 62% Candidate unknown 38% +24% Nov 04
Michigan Gary Peters 55% John James 41% +14% Nov 04
Minnesota Tina Smith 53% Candidate unknown 43% +10% Nov 04
Mississippi Candidate unknown 39% Cindy Hyde-Smith 59% +20% Nov 04
Montana Candidate unknown 40% Steve Daines 58% +18% Nov 04
Nebraska Candidate unknown 31% Ben Sasse 65% +34% Nov 04
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen 52% Candidate unknown 48% +4% Nov 04
New Jersey Cory Booker 56% Candidate unknown 42% +14% Nov 04
New Mexico Candidate unknown 55% Candidate unknown 45% +10% Nov 04
North Carolina Candidate unknown 47% Thom Tillis 49% +2% Nov 04
Oklahoma Candidate unknown 29% Jim Inhofe 68% +39% Nov 04
Oregon Jeff Merkley 55% Candidate unknown 38% +17% Nov 04
Rhode Island Jack Reed 71% Candidate unknown 29% +42% Nov 04
South Carolina Candidate unknown 39% Lindsey Graham 55% +16% Nov 04
South Dakota Candidate unknown 29% Mike Rounds 51% +22% Nov 04
Tennessee Candidate unknown 32% Candidate unknown 62% +30% Nov 04
Texas Candidate unknown 34% John Cornyn 62% +28% Nov 04
Virginia Mark Warner 49% Candidate unknown 48% +1% Nov 04
West Virginia Candidate unknown 35% Shelley Moore Capito 62% +27% Nov 04
Wyoming Candidate unknown 18% Candidate unknown 72% +54% Nov 04